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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money starts to go on Biden for the nomination but I’m far

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 23 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The money starts to go on Biden for the nomination but I’m far from convinced

Over the past couple of days there’s been renewed betting interest in former vice president Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • I love Joe
  • Even if he did plagiarise a Neil Kinnock speech.
  • Primus inter pares again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931

    John_M said:

    Depressing that Brexit has brought back economic protectionism and nationalism.

    For that alone Leavers should be kicked in the balls/fallopians until they recant their heresy towards free trade.

    Nationalism is a long-time thing. Given the contract was awarded to a French firm, it seems you're on dodgy ground here.

    I'd add that free trade became the British mantra once we'd had a lovely, languorous century or two of mercantilism to make sure we had a decent economy.
    But look at the YouGov findings. Economic protectionism is back.

    Those voters are thick as mince and clearly don’t deserve the vote.
    You can't trust the public, they drink prosecco over champers for christmas lunch and don't think die hard is the best christmas movie
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,080
    edited March 23
    The important thing is to pick the person most able to beat Trump. Forget about age, Trump is going to be 74 himself and they don't have to do the full four year term. Pick Harris as VP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077

    Primus inter pares again.

    Adler Adler uber alles
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    'Creepy' Joe Biden would be a dream opponent for Trump. The Democrats would be crazy to nominate him.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,576
    Biden has lost two primary campaigns. Where does the idea he is a brilliant campaigner come from?
  • John_M said:

    Depressing that Brexit has brought back economic protectionism and nationalism.

    For that alone Leavers should be kicked in the balls/fallopians until they recant their heresy towards free trade.

    Nationalism is a long-time thing. Given the contract was awarded to a French firm, it seems you're on dodgy ground here.

    I'd add that free trade became the British mantra once we'd had a lovely, languorous century or two of mercantilism to make sure we had a decent economy.
    But look at the YouGov findings. Economic protectionism is back.

    Those voters are thick as mince and clearly don’t deserve the vote.
    You can't trust the public, they drink prosecco over champers for christmas lunch and don't think die hard is the best christmas movie
    Well they got the Die Hard thing right.

    Still can’t get over the fact that 53% of voters like pineapple on pizza.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12
    Just so long as somebody beats Trump, that is all I care about. Guy is utter trash.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    Democracy really is in a bad place when we are talking about potential leaders of the free world both acting like high school kids. I just saw the advert for YouTube red origin series rebooting the karate kid with the two main characters now old...biden vs trump reminds me of that.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    FF43 said:

    Blue passports are important. If someone - Theresa May - says Single Market, Customs Union and Common Agricultural Policy, I would detect a sigh of relief from most people. We don't need to worry about bothersome borders in Ireland and the English Channel, we can still most of what we do currently, we are not entirely cutting ourselves off from our neighbours or the outer world.

    But as Brexit will still be disruptive and costly there has to be SOMETHING you get from it. I think four largely symbolic things. But symbolism matters here. Blue passports to indicate independence. Out of the Common Fisheries Policy because there is something about controlling your waters that resonates with the national psyche. In fact we would be advised to stick close to the CFP for stock management. The main practical effect is a 13% tariff on processed fish that will decimate salmon smoking and filleted fish exports. An agreed migration management policy, eg require job offer then work permit before residence. Finally third country deals. The aim is to make these identical to EU ones (third countries won't always agree), but the point is that these are BRITISH deals with a union flag on them. The Prime Minister can get their signing ceremonies in front of ornate fireplaces and flanking flags in foreign capitals.

    If Verhofstadt gets his way and it is possible for UK citizens to buy EU associate membership, and if such membership entails paying a few 1000s of £ and having a different, UK but also EU passport which is burgundy, blue passports are going to be the biggest lack of status symbol since Russia stopped branding serfs. An unintended consequence.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640
    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.
  • If I were Biden I’d use these kind of attack lines.

    Plus calling Trump Comrade Trump.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217

    I love Joe

    As do I (not least because I have a few quid on him...).

    As been pointed out several times before, age is probably not of massive import when running against a septuagenarian Trump.

    And as for the whole plagiarism thing...
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/19/melania-trump-republican-convention-plagiarism-michelle-obama
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,576

    John_M said:

    Depressing that Brexit has brought back economic protectionism and nationalism.

    For that alone Leavers should be kicked in the balls/fallopians until they recant their heresy towards free trade.

    Nationalism is a long-time thing. Given the contract was awarded to a French firm, it seems you're on dodgy ground here.

    I'd add that free trade became the British mantra once we'd had a lovely, languorous century or two of mercantilism to make sure we had a decent economy.
    But look at the YouGov findings. Economic protectionism is back.

    Those voters are thick as mince and clearly don’t deserve the vote.
    You can't trust the public, they drink prosecco over champers for christmas lunch and don't think die hard is the best christmas movie
    The best Christmas film is The Muppet Christmas Carol.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Biden should have run last year. I understand his reasons for not doing so, but he is now probably too old.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    I fear they will do the opposite and we will get a wider and wider split between the two sides.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    So the battle for the leadership of the free world basically comes down to who would win in high school punch up? Nothing surprises me any more.

    For the record, fat boy Trumpton would probably lose, unless he was able to sit on his opponent before dishing out the digs with his tiny hands.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    Agreed. But the way they’re going at the moment it looks like the Dems are going to double down on the identity politics and further split the country. And see Trump re-elected.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    I fear they will do the opposite and we will get a wider and wider split between the two sides.
    Me too...

    Going after specific victim groups isn't going to build a national coalition.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    Blue passports are important. If someone - Theresa May - says Single Market, Customs Union and Common Agricultural Policy, I would detect a sigh of relief from most people. We don't need to worry about bothersome borders in Ireland and the English Channel, we can still most of what we do currently, we are not entirely cutting ourselves off from our neighbours or the outer world.

    But as Brexit will still be disruptive and costly there has to be SOMETHING you get from it. I think four largely symbolic things. But symbolism matters here. Blue passports to indicate independence. Out of the Common Fisheries Policy because there is something about controlling your waters that resonates with the national psyche. In fact we would be advised to stick close to the CFP for stock management. The main practical effect is a 13% tariff on processed fish that will decimate salmon smoking and filleted fish exports. An agreed migration management policy, eg require job offer then work permit before residence. Finally third country deals. The aim is to make these identical to EU ones (third countries won't always agree), but the point is that these are BRITISH deals with a union flag on them. The Prime Minister can get their signing ceremonies in front of ornate fireplaces and flanking flags in foreign capitals.

    If Verhofstadt gets his way and it is possible for UK citizens to buy EU associate membership, and if such membership entails paying a few 1000s of £ and having a different, UK but also EU passport which is burgundy, blue passports are going to be the biggest lack of status symbol since Russia stopped branding serfs. An unintended consequence.
    I doubt they will price the burgundy 'business class' passports that high. I'd expect them to retail at around £200 when traded in for an existing burgundy passport. As you say, they will be a status symbol. That said, Verhofstadt's proposal makes a great deal of sense.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    It would be good if Biden got the nomination, as I backed him.

    Also, my pre-qualifying ramble, including three tips, is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/australia-pre-qualifying-2018.html
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,395
    edited March 23
    The only thing funnier than the news that our British-as-John-Bull-Eating-a-Pork-Pie-at-the-Seaside-in-the-Rain blue passport will be made by those dastardly frogs, would be the government trying to reverse the decision to appease the loons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748
    edited March 23
    Biden would be the best general election candidate for the Democrats but his problem will be getting past Sanders and/or Warren in the Democratic primaries.

    Harris would be a disaster for the Democrats and could only tie Trump in the last PPP 2020 poll so is already polling worse than Hillary

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-8-points-generic-house-ballot-nationally/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    edited March 23
    The most striking thing about US politics is when the big two are at roughly 48-48 (4 for third parties say) is the degree of rural-urban polarisation.
    Much greater than anywhere here, even London is not as bad.

    The map of "solid blue" Illinois illustrates the point: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/82/Illinois_Presidential_Election_Results_2016.svg/187px-Illinois_Presidential_Election_Results_2016.svg.png ... it is mostly red !
    I guess the sheer size of the country has alot to do with that.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,395
    Pulpstar said:

    The most striking thing about US politics is when the big two are at roughly 48-48 (4 for third parties say) is the degree of rural-urban polarisation.
    Much greater than anywhere here, even London is not as bad.

    The map of "solid blue" Illinois illustrates the point: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/82/Illinois_Presidential_Election_Results_2016.svg/187px-Illinois_Presidential_Election_Results_2016.svg.png ... it is mostly red !
    I guess the sheer size of the country has alot to do with that.

    When 80% of the population is in Chicago, is doesn't matter if the rest of the state votes like back-woods Alabama.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 942
    edited March 23
    Pulpstar said:

    The most striking thing about US politics is when the big two are at roughly 48-48 (4 for third parties say) is the degree of rural-urban polarisation.
    Much greater than anywhere here, even London is not as bad.

    The map of "solid blue" Illinois illustrates the point: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/82/Illinois_Presidential_Election_Results_2016.svg/187px-Illinois_Presidential_Election_Results_2016.svg.png ... it is mostly red !
    I guess the sheer size of the country has alot to do with that.

    Although even this is likely to mask a lot of variation - that's a lot of red counties, but the level of blue support within them will vary from nearly 0 to neary 50. We shouldn't let these maps fool us into thinkking each party COMPLETELY monopolises support within its respective geography.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Anazina said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    Blue passports are important. If someone - Theresa May - says Single Market, Customs Union and Common Agricultural Policy, I would detect a sigh of relief from most people. We don't need to worry about bothersome borders in Ireland and the English Channel, we can still most of what we do currently, we are not entirely cutting ourselves off from our neighbours or the outer world.

    But as Brexit will still be disruptive and costly there has to be SOMETHING you get from it. I think four largely symbolic things. But symbolism matters here. Blue passports to indicate independence. Out of the Common Fisheries Policy because there is something about controlling your waters that resonates with the national psyche. In fact we would be advised to stick close to the CFP for stock management. The main practical effect is a 13% tariff on processed fish that will decimate salmon smoking and filleted fish exports. An agreed migration management policy, eg require job offer then work permit before residence. Finally third country deals. The aim is to make these identical to EU ones (third countries won't always agree), but the point is that these are BRITISH deals with a union flag on them. The Prime Minister can get their signing ceremonies in front of ornate fireplaces and flanking flags in foreign capitals.

    If Verhofstadt gets his way and it is possible for UK citizens to buy EU associate membership, and if such membership entails paying a few 1000s of £ and having a different, UK but also EU passport which is burgundy, blue passports are going to be the biggest lack of status symbol since Russia stopped branding serfs. An unintended consequence.
    I doubt they will price the burgundy 'business class' passports that high. I'd expect them to retail at around £200 when traded in for an existing burgundy passport. As you say, they will be a status symbol. That said, Verhofstadt's proposal makes a great deal of sense.
    It’s a massive power grab by the EU, to introduce the concept of “EU Citizenship” as distinct from citizenship of a member state. Another step down the road to becoming a single country.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    Progress in the case to challenge campaign spending by the Leave campaign:
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    Anazina said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    Blue passports are important. If someone - Theresa May - says Single Market, Customs Union and Common Agricultural Policy, I would detect a sigh of relief from most people. We don't need to worry about bothersome borders in Ireland and the English Channel, we can still most of what we do currently, we are not entirely cutting ourselves off from our neighbours or the outer world.

    But as Brexit will still be disruptive and costly there has to be SOMETHING you get from it. I think four largely symbolic things. But symbolism matters here. Blue passports to indicate independence. Out of the Common Fisheries Policy because there is something about controlling your waters that resonates with the national psyche. In fact we would be advised to stick close to the CFP for stock management. The main practical effect is a 13% tariff on processed fish that will decimate salmon smoking and filleted fish exports. An agreed migration management policy, eg require job offer then work permit before residence. Finally third country deals. The aim is to make these identical to EU ones (third countries won't always agree), but the point is that these are BRITISH deals with a union flag on them. The Prime Minister can get their signing ceremonies in front of ornate fireplaces and flanking flags in foreign capitals.

    If Verhofstadt gets his way and it is possible for UK citizens to buy EU associate membership, and if such membership entails paying a few 1000s of £ and having a different, UK but also EU passport which is burgundy, blue passports are going to be the biggest lack of status symbol since Russia stopped branding serfs. An unintended consequence.
    I doubt they will price the burgundy 'business class' passports that high. I'd expect them to retail at around £200 when traded in for an existing burgundy passport. As you say, they will be a status symbol. That said, Verhofstadt's proposal makes a great deal of sense.
    Depends what you get for the money. It will be a major LOL for the EU if we end up a majority EU country (or, actually, anything >48% EU), and it really will create an Apartheid style two tier citizenship.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640
    I do wonder whether the Dems are getting a bit overconfident with their success in special elections over the past months. As with the LDs here, it is far easier to win a by-election as you have a single focus. Translating that to a national result is far harder.

    If Trump can pull off a deal with North Korea, his chances of re-election increase.

    Any sense of complacency from the Dems could be fatal to their chances. They failed to work Trump out once. They risk doing so again.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,526
    Has the government u-turned on the vendor for the blue passports yet? Surely it's going to happen, with some hapless civil servant blamed for the initial decision as the minister, at one with the masses on national symbolism and pride, wades in to kick some unpatriotic arse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    Biden and Sanders both actually have a great chance. Of the general election candidates who have fought an incumbent president in the last 25 years, Dole, Kerry and Romney all were experienced candidates well over 60 and Dole was well into his 70s. A younger candidate like Joseph Kennedy is more likely in 2024 if Trump is re elected.

    Indeed the last candidate to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House was 69 year old Ronald Reagan in 1980
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    edited March 23
    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748

    I do wonder whether the Dems are getting a bit overconfident with their success in special elections over the past months. As with the LDs here, it is far easier to win a by-election as you have a single focus. Translating that to a national result is far harder.

    If Trump can pull off a deal with North Korea, his chances of re-election increase.

    Any sense of complacency from the Dems could be fatal to their chances. They failed to work Trump out once. They risk doing so again.

    The Special elections relate more to the House election in November anyway, they do not directly correlate to presidential elections
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    Progress in the case to challenge campaign spending by the Leave campaign:
    ttps://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/977158144047624192

    Are gullible Remainers still giving him money to try and find a legal loophole to overturn the referendum?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    From 2010 - the Daily Mail was outraged that De La Rue got the passport contract.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1337944/British-passports-abroad-costing-100-jobs-100-million-taxpayers.html

    British passports are to be printed in Malta which could mean 100 UK jobs lost and cost the taxpayer an extra £100 million.

    And the UK firm which won the contract, De La Rue , is being investigated by the Serious Fraud office and could be French-owned within weeks.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 350
    FTPT:

    It's possible that Uber have been somewhat disingenuous with their released accident footage.:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-said-uber-victim-came-from-the-shadows-dont-believe-it/
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,424

    From 2010 - the Daily Mail was outraged that De La Rue got the passport contract.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1337944/British-passports-abroad-costing-100-jobs-100-million-taxpayers.html

    British passports are to be printed in Malta which could mean 100 UK jobs lost and cost the taxpayer an extra £100 million.

    And the UK firm which won the contract, De La Rue , is being investigated by the Serious Fraud office and could be French-owned within weeks.

    LOL good spot.

    (The Gill Rider mentioned in that article is a good friend of mine. Sadly she is extremely discreet so I never did get the dirt from her on life in the Cabinet Office under Gordon Brown).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Rhubarb said:

    FTPT:

    It's possible that Uber have been somewhat disingenuous with their released accident footage.:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-said-uber-victim-came-from-the-shadows-dont-believe-it/

    If there isn’t a jaywalking law in place on that road, Uber could be looking at a large lawsuit from the family of the victim.
    As I said on TPT, I hope this gets investigated by the NTSB.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640
    HYUFD said:

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    Biden and Sanders both actually have a great chance. Of the general election candidates who have fought an incumbent president in the last 25 years, Dole, Kerry and Romney all were experienced candidates well over 60 and Dole was well into his 70s. A younger candidate like Joseph Kennedy is more likely in 2024 if Trump is re elected.

    Indeed the last candidate to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House was 69 year old Ronald Reagan in 1980
    Dole, Kerry and Romney all lost - so not sure they make much of a case for following a similar path.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Sandpit said:

    Rhubarb said:

    FTPT:

    It's possible that Uber have been somewhat disingenuous with their released accident footage.:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-said-uber-victim-came-from-the-shadows-dont-believe-it/

    If there isn’t a jaywalking law in place on that road, Uber could be looking at a large lawsuit from the family of the victim.
    As I said on TPT, I hope this gets investigated by the NTSB.
    This is why all autonomous vehicle accidents should not be investigated by the companies. In fact, they shouldn't even be the ones to download the data off the cars.

    They cannot be trusted; there is too much money involved.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748
    edited March 23

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    Biden and Sanders both actually have a great chance. Of the general election candidates who have fought an incumbent president in the last 25 years, Dole, Kerry and Romney all were experienced candidates well over 60 and Dole was well into his 70s. A younger candidate like Joseph Kennedy is more likely in 2024 if Trump is re elected.

    Indeed the last candidate to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House was 69 year old Ronald Reagan in 1980
    Dole, Kerry and Romney all lost - so not sure they make much of a case for following a similar path.
    Yes but the last candidate who did beat an incumbent president after only 1 term in the White House, Reagan as I said, was almost 70 when elected.

    Even if you think a younger candidate would do better in the general election history suggests they are unlikely to win the primaries to take on an incumbent president and that an older, more experienced candidate is likely to be the nominee.
  • agingjbagingjb Posts: 70
    John Biden is five years older than Al Gore. Is Al Gore too old?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    In recent weeks we have seen in Mitch Landrieu and Richard Ojeda that there is a new generation of Democrats who think that there are a lot more things to worry about than gender neutral toilets or transgender issues like healthcare, security of employment, pensions, education, equality of opportunity in the jobs market , infrastructure, housing etc etc. If the Dems are going to beat Trump, and it won't be easy, they really need someone like that, not someone who sat with Obama for 8 years achieving pretty much nothing after the first year.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    edited March 23
    Sandpit said:

    Rhubarb said:

    FTPT:

    It's possible that Uber have been somewhat disingenuous with their released accident footage.:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-said-uber-victim-came-from-the-shadows-dont-believe-it/

    If there isn’t a jaywalking law in place on that road, Uber could be looking at a large lawsuit from the family of the victim.
    As I said on TPT, I hope this gets investigated by the NTSB.
    NTSB already on it

    https://patch.com/arizona/phoenix/uber-could-face-criminal-charges-pedestrian-death

    Also, "Governor [of Arizona] Ducey signed an executive order that went into effect on March 1 stating that corporations can be treated as "persons" subject to the laws of the state."

    Also also, in Arizona the fact that the victim is jaywalking reduces damages, it doesn't get the driver altogether off the hook.

    http://bakerinjuryattorneys.com/jaywalking-accident-injury/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Biden is boring.

    Next.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 350
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    Biden and Sanders both actually have a great chance. Of the general election candidates who have fought an incumbent president in the last 25 years, Dole, Kerry and Romney all were experienced candidates well over 60 and Dole was well into his 70s. A younger candidate like Joseph Kennedy is more likely in 2024 if Trump is re elected.

    Indeed the last candidate to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House was 69 year old Ronald Reagan in 1980
    Dole, Kerry and Romney all lost - so not sure they make much of a case for following a similar path.
    Yes but the last candidate who did beat an incumbent president after only 1 term in the White House, Reagan as I said, was almost 70 when elected.

    Even if you think a younger candidate would do better in the general election history suggests they are unlikely to win the primaries to take on an incumbent president and that an older, more experienced candidate is likely to be the nominee.
    Bush (snr.) was beaten by Bill.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640
    agingjb said:

    John Biden is five years older than Al Gore. Is Al Gore too old?

    Gore is too Gore
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    edited March 23

    Sandpit said:

    Rhubarb said:

    FTPT:

    It's possible that Uber have been somewhat disingenuous with their released accident footage.:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-said-uber-victim-came-from-the-shadows-dont-believe-it/

    If there isn’t a jaywalking law in place on that road, Uber could be looking at a large lawsuit from the family of the victim.
    As I said on TPT, I hope this gets investigated by the NTSB.
    This is why all autonomous vehicle accidents should not be investigated by the companies. In fact, they shouldn't even be the ones to download the data off the cars.

    They cannot be trusted; there is too much money involved.
    Agree completely.

    If a plane or train has an incident or accident, there are strict protocols on shutting things down and preserving data from employees at the scene. Everything should be left where it is, except for disturbance caused by emergency service personnel trying to save life. Those first responders are also trained to avoid unnecessary disturbance of wreckage that could interfere with the investigation.

    In the UK an airport has to get permission from the AAIB to move a dead plane from where it ended up, even if it’s blocking a runway and keeping the airport closed and even if there were no injuries.

    The NTSB need to be all over this one, something clearly went wrong and led to a fatality. I don’t see anything on their website about it, but do note that they’re investigating the bridge collapse from last week.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,984
    Sandpit said:

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    Agreed. But the way they’re going at the moment it looks like the Dems are going to double down on the identity politics and further split the country. And see Trump re-elected.
    I think that it will be like New Labour in the nineties, the left will back a centrist candidate because the drive to win trumps allowing Trump another term. Biden isn't great on the #metoo stuff either, as per this clip:

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    Creditors of the Italian restaurant business Prezzo have backed a restructuring plan that will see it close 92 outlets - about a third of the chain, the BBC understands.
    It's estimated the move, backed by most creditors, could jeopardise up 1,800 jobs.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,551

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,824

    Has the government u-turned on the vendor for the blue passports yet? Surely it's going to happen, with some hapless civil servant blamed for the initial decision as the minister, at one with the masses on national symbolism and pride, wades in to kick some unpatriotic arse.

    Not sure it's Gavin’s area...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rhubarb said:

    FTPT:

    It's possible that Uber have been somewhat disingenuous with their released accident footage.:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-said-uber-victim-came-from-the-shadows-dont-believe-it/

    If there isn’t a jaywalking law in place on that road, Uber could be looking at a large lawsuit from the family of the victim.
    As I said on TPT, I hope this gets investigated by the NTSB.
    This is why all autonomous vehicle accidents should not be investigated by the companies. In fact, they shouldn't even be the ones to download the data off the cars.

    They cannot be trusted; there is too much money involved.
    Agree completely.

    If a plane or train has an incident or accident, there are strict protocols on shutting things down and preserving data from employees at the scene. Everything should be left where it is, except for disturbance caused by emergency service personnel trying to save life. Those first responders are also trained to avoid unnecessary disturbance of wreckage that could interfere with the investigation.

    In the UK an airport has to get permission from the AAIB to move a dead plane from where it ended up, even if it’s blocking a runway and keeping the airport closed and even if there were no injuries.

    The NTSB need to be all over this one, something clearly went wrong and led to a fatality. I don’t see anything on their website about it, but do note that they’re investigating the bridge collapse from last week.
    AIUI NTSB already are, and on a previous case.

    Though they're the wrong people; you want their mentality, but self-driving cars are potentially going to be so pivotal that it really needs a separate organisation dedicated to it. It also needs to be run by people outside the car industry.

    I am available if the UK government wants... ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,795


    Looking at the figures I'm making a rough assumption that a substantial amount of SLab 2nd preferences went to the SNP, so I'm still sticking to my surmise that Unionist tactical voting has reached its high water mark.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640

    Creditors of the Italian restaurant business Prezzo have backed a restructuring plan that will see it close 92 outlets - about a third of the chain, the BBC understands.
    It's estimated the move, backed by most creditors, could jeopardise up 1,800 jobs.

    Many of the closures won't be Prezzo outlets - but rather their 'Mexican' brand.

    Given how many places you can buy pizzas and pastas, I am surprised they aren't keeping Chiquito's and losing the restaurants that duplicate what Zizzi, Bella Pasta, Pizza Express etc etc etc are doing everywhere
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Can't help feeling that that moniker belongs to Hilary Clinton. Agree about Corbyn though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748
    Rhubarb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    Biden and Sanders both actually have a great chance. Of the general election candidates who have fought an incumbent president in the last 25 years, Dole, Kerry and Romney all were experienced candidates well over 60 and Dole was well into his 70s. A younger candidate like Joseph Kennedy is more likely in 2024 if Trump is re elected.

    Indeed the last candidate to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House was 69 year old Ronald Reagan in 1980
    Dole, Kerry and Romney all lost - so not sure they make much of a case for following a similar path.
    Yes but the last candidate who did beat an incumbent president after only 1 term in the White House, Reagan as I said, was almost 70 when elected.

    Even if you think a younger candidate would do better in the general election history suggests they are unlikely to win the primaries to take on an incumbent president and that an older, more experienced candidate is likely to be the nominee.
    Bush (snr.) was beaten by Bill.
    Bush Snr was Reagan's Vice President for 8 years, he was not running in 1992 after only 4 years in the White House but after 12 years in power
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rhubarb said:

    FTPT:

    It's possible that Uber have been somewhat disingenuous with their released accident footage.:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-said-uber-victim-came-from-the-shadows-dont-believe-it/

    If there isn’t a jaywalking law in place on that road, Uber could be looking at a large lawsuit from the family of the victim.
    As I said on TPT, I hope this gets investigated by the NTSB.
    NTSB already on it

    https://patch.com/arizona/phoenix/uber-could-face-criminal-charges-pedestrian-death

    Also, "Governor [of Arizona] Ducey signed an executive order that went into effect on March 1 stating that corporations can be treated as "persons" subject to the laws of the state."

    Also also, in Arizona the fact that the victim is jaywalking reduces damages, it doesn't get the driver altogether off the hook.

    http://bakerinjuryattorneys.com/jaywalking-accident-injury/
    Interesting background, thanks. Very good to know that the NTSB are on it, means we will get a detailed and impartial report.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    It won't be Biden - though he can be Kingmaker
    It certainly won't be Sanders
    Warren won't get it

    They have to call on a younger generation of Democrats to set out a vision for the US.

    Personally I would want them to stop allying with groups like BLM and come up with a more unifying approach. Drop the SJW rhetoric and actually come up with practical plans to deliver justice for all.

    Agreed. But the way they’re going at the moment it looks like the Dems are going to double down on the identity politics and further split the country. And see Trump re-elected.
    I think that it will be like New Labour in the nineties, the left will back a centrist candidate because the drive to win trumps allowing Trump another term. Biden isn't great on the #metoo stuff either, as per this clip:

    Sanders beats Trump on current polling too and the Democrats will only have been in opposition for 4 years in 2020 not 18 years as Labour had been in 1997
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931

    Creditors of the Italian restaurant business Prezzo have backed a restructuring plan that will see it close 92 outlets - about a third of the chain, the BBC understands.
    It's estimated the move, backed by most creditors, could jeopardise up 1,800 jobs.

    Many of the closures won't be Prezzo outlets - but rather their 'Mexican' brand.

    Given how many places you can buy pizzas and pastas, I am surprised they aren't keeping Chiquito's and losing the restaurants that duplicate what Zizzi, Bella Pasta, Pizza Express etc etc etc are doing everywhere
    Mexican chains never seem to have taken off in the uk, probably because most Mexican themed restaurants are terrible.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640

    Creditors of the Italian restaurant business Prezzo have backed a restructuring plan that will see it close 92 outlets - about a third of the chain, the BBC understands.
    It's estimated the move, backed by most creditors, could jeopardise up 1,800 jobs.

    Many of the closures won't be Prezzo outlets - but rather their 'Mexican' brand.

    Given how many places you can buy pizzas and pastas, I am surprised they aren't keeping Chiquito's and losing the restaurants that duplicate what Zizzi, Bella Pasta, Pizza Express etc etc etc are doing everywhere
    Mexican chains never seem to have taken off in the uk, probably because most Mexican themed restaurants are terrible.
    Yet Mexican food is wonderful.

    I would love to see Wahaca get much bigger.

    Given how popular burritos are - there is plenty of market out there for them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    Biden is boring.

    Next.

    After four years of Trump boring might be good!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    Maybe is just me but I am well aware that the likes of Google and Facebook has been doing this for years where they show users slightly different pages with say different shades of colour etc and do 1000s of A/B tests until they are happy they have the right shade of.blue.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/23/leaked-cambridge-analyticas-blueprint-for-trump-victory
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    edited March 23

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rhubarb said:

    FTPT:

    It's possible that Uber have been somewhat disingenuous with their released accident footage.:

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/police-chief-said-uber-victim-came-from-the-shadows-dont-believe-it/

    If there isn’t a jaywalking law in place on that road, Uber could be looking at a large lawsuit from the family of the victim.
    As I said on TPT, I hope this gets investigated by the NTSB.
    This is why all autonomous vehicle accidents should not be investigated by the companies. In fact, they shouldn't even be the ones to download the data off the cars.

    They cannot be trusted; there is too much money involved.
    Agree completely.

    If a plane or train has an incident or accident, there are strict protocols on shutting things down and preserving data from employees at the scene. Everything should be left where it is, except for disturbance caused by emergency service personnel trying to save life. Those first responders are also trained to avoid unnecessary disturbance of wreckage that could interfere with the investigation.

    In the UK an airport has to get permission from the AAIB to move a dead plane from where it ended up, even if it’s blocking a runway and keeping the airport closed and even if there were no injuries.

    The NTSB need to be all over this one, something clearly went wrong and led to a fatality. I don’t see anything on their website about it, but do note that they’re investigating the bridge collapse from last week.
    AIUI NTSB already are, and on a previous case.

    Though they're the wrong people; you want their mentality, but self-driving cars are potentially going to be so pivotal that it really needs a separate organisation dedicated to it. It also needs to be run by people outside the car industry.

    I am available if the UK government wants... ;)
    Within the UK maybe a separate body, but in the US the same organisation deals with planes, trains, boats, busses and trucks already.

    IMO the bigger danger is that the regulation of SD cars is too lenient. The regulatory framework should look similar to commercial aviation, with extensive QA protocols and reviews of hardware and software, alongside formal training and certification requirements for key professions involved in the operation.

    There’s a fine line to be drawn, but clearly public acceptance depends on them not killing people on a regular basis.

    PS. Liked your “Letter to F1” on the PT.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    edited March 23
    HYUFD said:

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
    Exactly!

    It was the centrists who gave us Trump!

    Sanders is the one generating enthusiasm, like Brexit did, like Trump did, like Corbyn did.

    I went back and read and old post on here by a guy. He said how he spent ages studying the details on these various events and got it wrong but a guy in his office had called them all (well he was wrong on Corbyn but a lot closer to being right than this guy)

    The guys reason?

    Enthusiasm, it is all about the stans! (super fans that will bore a whole room with their views). No one else in the Democrats has them to Bernie's level and certainly not Hilary.

    Edit: Quite frankly same applies with Labour, especially with the Conservatives riding a Brexit wave. (regarding chances of winning an election)
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Anazina said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    Blue passports are important. If someone - Theresa May - says Single Market, Customs Union and Common Agricultural Policy, I would detect a sigh of relief from most people. We don't need to worry about bothersome borders in Ireland and the English Channel, we can still most of what we do currently, we are not entirely cutting ourselves off from our neighbours or the outer world.

    But as Brexit will still be disruptive and costly there has to be SOMETHING you get from it. I think four largely symbolic things. But symbolism matters here. Blue passports to indicate independence. Out of the Common Fisheries Policy because there is something about controlling your waters that resonates with the national psyche. In fact we would be advised to stick close to the CFP for stock management. The main practical effect is a 13% tariff on processed fish that will decimate salmon smoking and filleted fish exports. An agreed migration management policy, eg require job offer then work permit before residence. Finally third country deals. The aim is to make these identical to EU ones (third countries won't always agree), but the point is that these are BRITISH deals with a union flag on them. The Prime Minister can get their signing ceremonies in front of ornate fireplaces and flanking flags in foreign capitals.

    If Verhofstadt gets his way and it is possible for UK citizens to buy EU associate membership, and if such membership entails paying a few 1000s of £ and having a different, UK but also EU passport which is burgundy, blue passports are going to be the biggest lack of status symbol since Russia stopped branding serfs. An unintended consequence.
    I doubt they will price the burgundy 'business class' passports that high. I'd expect them to retail at around £200 when traded in for an existing burgundy passport. As you say, they will be a status symbol. That said, Verhofstadt's proposal makes a great deal of sense.
    Depends what you get for the money. It will be a major LOL for the EU if we end up a majority EU country (or, actually, anything >48% EU), and it really will create an Apartheid style two tier citizenship.
    Not really, because any citizen would be able to apply, it's open to all. It's not like black people under Apartheid could apply to become white.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748
    edited March 23

    HYUFD said:

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
    Exactly!

    It was the centrists who gave us Trump!

    Sanders is the one generating enthusiasm, like Brexit did, like Trump did, like Corbyn did.

    I went back and read and old post on here by a guy. He said how he spent ages studying the details on these various events and got it wrong but a guy in his office had called them all (well he was wrong on Corbyn but a lot closer to being right than this guy)

    The guys reason?

    Enthusiasm, it is all about the stans! (super fans that will bore a whole room with their views). No one else in the Democrats has them to Bernie's level and certainly not Hilary.

    Yes, the Hillary campaign was like the Remain campaign and the May campaign, dull, entitled, establishment and certain of an easy victory.

    It was the Trump, Leave and Corbyn campaigns which had the crowds and the passion, Boris and Sanders and Trump and Corbyn all inspire enthusiasm amongst their supporters and the crowds even if establishment centrists can't stand them
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
    Exactly!

    It was the centrists who gave us Trump!

    Sanders is the one generating enthusiasm, like Brexit did, like Trump did, like Corbyn did.

    I went back and read and old post on here by a guy. He said how he spent ages studying the details on these various events and got it wrong but a guy in his office had called them all (well he was wrong on Corbyn but a lot closer to being right than this guy)

    The guys reason?

    Enthusiasm, it is all about the stans! (super fans that will bore a whole room with their views). No one else in the Democrats has them to Bernie's level and certainly not Hilary.

    Yes, the Hillary, campaign was like the Remain campaign and the May campaign, dull, entitled, establishment and certain of an easy victory.

    It was the Trump, Leave and Corbyn campaigns which had the crowds and the passion, Boris and Sanders and Trump and Corbyn all inspire enthusiasm amongst their supporters and the crowds even if establishment centrists can't stand them
    Populism nevertheless has a finite lifespan, once shouldn't assume that the appetite for it in 2020 will be similar to that in 2016.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    edited March 23

    Creditors of the Italian restaurant business Prezzo have backed a restructuring plan that will see it close 92 outlets - about a third of the chain, the BBC understands.
    It's estimated the move, backed by most creditors, could jeopardise up 1,800 jobs.

    Many of the closures won't be Prezzo outlets - but rather their 'Mexican' brand.

    Given how many places you can buy pizzas and pastas, I am surprised they aren't keeping Chiquito's and losing the restaurants that duplicate what Zizzi, Bella Pasta, Pizza Express etc etc etc are doing everywhere
    Mexican chains never seem to have taken off in the uk, probably because most Mexican themed restaurants are terrible.
    Yet Mexican food is wonderful.

    I would love to see Wahaca get much bigger.

    Given how popular burritos are - there is plenty of market out there for them.
    I believe chipotle has opened some branches in London.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Interesting photo of the Uber accident car. Volvo XC90. Note the LIDAR on the roof and the surprisingly minimal damage for what was a fatal collision at 38mph.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447

    Creditors of the Italian restaurant business Prezzo have backed a restructuring plan that will see it close 92 outlets - about a third of the chain, the BBC understands.
    It's estimated the move, backed by most creditors, could jeopardise up 1,800 jobs.

    Many of the closures won't be Prezzo outlets - but rather their 'Mexican' brand.

    Given how many places you can buy pizzas and pastas, I am surprised they aren't keeping Chiquito's and losing the restaurants that duplicate what Zizzi, Bella Pasta, Pizza Express etc etc etc are doing everywhere
    Mexican chains never seem to have taken off in the uk, probably because most Mexican themed restaurants are terrible.
    Yet Mexican food is wonderful.

    I would love to see Wahaca get much bigger.

    Given how popular burritos are - there is plenty of market out there for them.
    I believe chipotle has opened some branches in London.
    Indeed, another faceless uninspiring chain. There are plenty of better options offering more innovative, interesting cuisine.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,395
    edited March 23
    Uh-oh. Attack in France. Multiple shootings. Perpetrator killed.

    EDIT: missed that it started a while ago, with hostages held. Police storm scene. Three others dead.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/977181214208557056

    "including Wylie, who, I (re)discovered yesterday, tried to flog me the same crap he’s attacking CA for doing"

    I thought it was rather interesting that Wylie wouldn't agreed to be audited.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,261
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
    Exactly!

    It was the centrists who gave us Trump!

    Sanders is the one generating enthusiasm, like Brexit did, like Trump did, like Corbyn did.

    I went back and read and old post on here by a guy. He said how he spent ages studying the details on these various events and got it wrong but a guy in his office had called them all (well he was wrong on Corbyn but a lot closer to being right than this guy)

    The guys reason?

    Enthusiasm, it is all about the stans! (super fans that will bore a whole room with their views). No one else in the Democrats has them to Bernie's level and certainly not Hilary.

    Yes, the Hillary campaign was like the Remain campaign and the May campaign, dull, entitled, establishment and certain of an easy victory.

    It was the Trump, Leave and Corbyn campaigns which had the crowds and the passion, Boris and Sanders and Trump and Corbyn all inspire enthusiasm amongst their supporters and the crowds even if establishment centrists can't stand them
    That's why it's called populism.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,424
    Scott_P said:
    Like him or loathe him, that's a brilliant read. I particularly liked: [Facebook's] current problem is a consequence of senior people there not understanding rapidly changing political dynamics but they’ll learn about politics faster than the politicians learn about engineering
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,594
    edited March 23
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting photo of the Uber accident car. Volvo XC90. Note the LIDAR on the roof and the surprisingly minimal damage for what was a fatal collision at 38mph.

    There is some spectacular bullshit being thrown around by the authorities - to the level that otherwise rational minds start having to specualting on a rubbish attempt at a coverup. The police chief is trying to victim blame by saying they came from the shadows.

    The released camera footage is ludicrously dark. The internet is now awash with videos of people driving down that same stretch of road and it is lit perfectly well - easily enough to see a person crossing the street in plenty of time.

    And it's the "visibility" argument is a pure smokescreen anyway as that's the reason they had LIDAR and IR cameras on the cars.

    American road fatalities are 1 fatality per 100million miles. Uber self driving cars are at 1 fatality after 3million miles.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 865
    Very tight deciding match in the cricket WCQ between Ireland and Afghanistan.

    Afghanistan kept Ireland to what looked like an under-par 209. Afghanistan have been ahead of the asking rate all the way, but by my quick'n'dirty calculations based off the general DLS sheet, it's got pretty close recently.

    At the end of over 41, AFG were 157/4. DLS par score at this stage would be (I think) 154/4. Or, if a wicket fell, 158/5)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
    Exactly!

    It was the centrists who gave us Trump!

    Sanders is the one generating enthusiasm, like Brexit did, like Trump did, like Corbyn did.

    I went back and read and old post on here by a guy. He said how he spent ages studying the details on these various events and got it wrong but a guy in his office had called them all (well he was wrong on Corbyn but a lot closer to being right than this guy)

    The guys reason?

    Enthusiasm, it is all about the stans! (super fans that will bore a whole room with their views). No one else in the Democrats has them to Bernie's level and certainly not Hilary.

    Yes, the Hillary, campaign was like the Remain campaign and the May campaign, dull, entitled, establishment and certain of an easy victory.

    It was the Trump, Leave and Corbyn campaigns which had the crowds and the passion, Boris and Sanders and Trump and Corbyn all inspire enthusiasm amongst their supporters and the crowds even if establishment centrists can't stand them
    Populism nevertheless has a finite lifespan, once shouldn't assume that the appetite for it in 2020 will be similar to that in 2016.
    I doubt it will last beyond another 5 to 10 years but that it will still have held sway for a decade
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 865
    Whle I was typing, another over gone. DLS par score would (I think) be 159/4; it's 161/4.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938
    Afternoon all :)

    A lot will depend on the midterm elections. IF the GOP doesn't do too badly they will rally behind Trump and he will likely win a second term.

    IF it's a bad night for the GOP, then a number of cans of worms could be opened. First, it would spur the Democrat race for the nomination into life. Second, would Trump run again ? He expected to lose in 2016 by all accounts but I suspect he's a man who doesn't take losing well and the idea of him having to transition to someone who has beaten him will be, I suspect, quite repugnant for a man used to being in charge and in command.

    So we might see Trump ease out and the GOP would then have its own race for the nomination.

    The other possibility is the GOP does badly and Trump blames the GOP which might encourage a primary challenge (incumbent Presidents have been challenged on a number of occasions, the most notable being Reagan's challenge to Ford in 1976).
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 933
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
    Exactly!

    It was the centrists who gave us Trump!

    Sanders is the one generating enthusiasm, like Brexit did, like Trump did, like Corbyn did.

    I went back and read and old post on here by a guy. He said how he spent ages studying the details on these various events and got it wrong but a guy in his office had called them all (well he was wrong on Corbyn but a lot closer to being right than this guy)

    The guys reason?

    Enthusiasm, it is all about the stans! (super fans that will bore a whole room with their views). No one else in the Democrats has them to Bernie's level and certainly not Hilary.

    Yes, the Hillary, campaign was like the Remain campaign and the May campaign, dull, entitled, establishment and certain of an easy victory.

    It was the Trump, Leave and Corbyn campaigns which had the crowds and the passion, Boris and Sanders and Trump and Corbyn all inspire enthusiasm amongst their supporters and the crowds even if establishment centrists can't stand them
    Populism nevertheless has a finite lifespan, once shouldn't assume that the appetite for it in 2020 will be similar to that in 2016.
    The desire for change will remain quite strong and I think campaigning for Democratic nomination will begin in 2019? So we are only talking a year and a half for Bernie to keep that fire lit. The idea that he was robbed* in 2016 will probably leave some with a urge to set the record straight.

    *Whether true or not.

    I watch some left wing American you tubers (very rarely) and they do seem to still retain a real passion for Bernie. The big question would be if he would run, age and health. If he did there would be some very passionate support I'm sure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    Alistair said:


    The released camera footage is ludicrously dark. The internet is now awash with videos of people driving down that same stretch of road and it is lit perfectly well - easily enough to see a person crossing the street in plenty of time.

    In cricket they often go off for bad light even though it looks fine on the TV because the camera makes the playing area look lighter than it actually is.
    So you could well be right that the obverse might be true here !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,931
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
    Exactly!

    It was the centrists who gave us Trump!

    Sanders is the one generating enthusiasm, like Brexit did, like Trump did, like Corbyn did.

    I went back and read and old post on here by a guy. He said how he spent ages studying the details on these various events and got it wrong but a guy in his office had called them all (well he was wrong on Corbyn but a lot closer to being right than this guy)

    The guys reason?

    Enthusiasm, it is all about the stans! (super fans that will bore a whole room with their views). No one else in the Democrats has them to Bernie's level and certainly not Hilary.

    Yes, the Hillary, campaign was like the Remain campaign and the May campaign, dull, entitled, establishment and certain of an easy victory.

    It was the Trump, Leave and Corbyn campaigns which had the crowds and the passion, Boris and Sanders and Trump and Corbyn all inspire enthusiasm amongst their supporters and the crowds even if establishment centrists can't stand them
    Populism nevertheless has a finite lifespan, once shouldn't assume that the appetite for it in 2020 will be similar to that in 2016.
    I doubt it will last beyond another 5 to 10 years but that it will still have held sway for a decade
    Depends how much AI/ML disrupts the world of work. Imagine if large numbers of middle class professionals lose their jobs or are paid less because the computer can do their jobs better and faster.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 865
    And Afghanistan slip behind the DLS rate for the first time.
    End of over 43: DLS par score 164/4; they're on 163/4
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    Very tight deciding match in the cricket WCQ between Ireland and Afghanistan.

    Afghanistan kept Ireland to what looked like an under-par 209. Afghanistan have been ahead of the asking rate all the way, but by my quick'n'dirty calculations based off the general DLS sheet, it's got pretty close recently.

    At the end of over 41, AFG were 157/4. DLS par score at this stage would be (I think) 154/4. Or, if a wicket fell, 158/5)

    As we discussed last night, if this finishes in a tie then they both go out and Zimbabwe go through.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    A lot will depend on the midterm elections. IF the GOP doesn't do too badly they will rally behind Trump and he will likely win a second term.

    IF it's a bad night for the GOP, then a number of cans of worms could be opened. First, it would spur the Democrat race for the nomination into life. Second, would Trump run again ? He expected to lose in 2016 by all accounts but I suspect he's a man who doesn't take losing well and the idea of him having to transition to someone who has beaten him will be, I suspect, quite repugnant for a man used to being in charge and in command.

    So we might see Trump ease out and the GOP would then have its own race for the nomination.

    The other possibility is the GOP does badly and Trump blames the GOP which might encourage a primary challenge (incumbent Presidents have been challenged on a number of occasions, the most notable being Reagan's challenge to Ford in 1976).

    Losing the midterm elections does not have to be fatal for a President's re election, see Clinton and Obama
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,748

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Age is nothing but a number, give me Bernie or give me death!



    Edit:

    Follow the enthusiasm, Brexit, Trump, Corbyn.

    Yes Sanders the selfish guy who more than anybody put Trump it the White House - just like Corbyn, as LAB leader makes a CON victory next time even more likely.
    Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.

    Not impossible it could be Sanders v Trump in 2020 followed by Corbyn v Boris in 2022
    Exactly!

    It was the centrists who gave us Trump!

    Sanders is the one generating enthusiasm, like Brexit did, like Trump did, like Corbyn did.

    I went back and read and old post on here by a guy. He said how he spent ages studying the details on these various events and got it wrong but a guy in his office had called them all (well he was wrong on Corbyn but a lot closer to being right than this guy)

    The guys reason?

    Enthusiasm, it is all about the stans! (super fans that will bore a whole room with their views). No one else in the Democrats has them to Bernie's level and certainly not Hilary.

    Yes, the Hillary, campaign was like the Remain campaign and the May campaign, dull, entitled, establishment and certain of an easy victory.

    It was the Trump, Leave and Corbyn campaigns which had the crowds and the passion, Boris and Sanders and Trump and Corbyn all inspire enthusiasm amongst their supporters and the crowds even if establishment centrists can't stand them
    Populism nevertheless has a finite lifespan, once shouldn't assume that the appetite for it in 2020 will be similar to that in 2016.
    I doubt it will last beyond another 5 to 10 years but that it will still have held sway for a decade
    Depends how much AI/ML disrupts the world of work. Imagine if large numbers of middle class professionals lose their jobs or are paid less because the computer can do their jobs better and faster.
    That is a longer term thing, then populism becomes a more permanent feature and a universal basic income probably inevitable
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,447

    Very tight deciding match in the cricket WCQ between Ireland and Afghanistan.

    Afghanistan kept Ireland to what looked like an under-par 209. Afghanistan have been ahead of the asking rate all the way, but by my quick'n'dirty calculations based off the general DLS sheet, it's got pretty close recently.

    At the end of over 41, AFG were 157/4. DLS par score at this stage would be (I think) 154/4. Or, if a wicket fell, 158/5)

    Yes, thrilling finish!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:


    The released camera footage is ludicrously dark. The internet is now awash with videos of people driving down that same stretch of road and it is lit perfectly well - easily enough to see a person crossing the street in plenty of time.

    In cricket they often go off for bad light even though it looks fine on the TV because the camera makes the playing area look lighter than it actually is.
    So you could well be right that the obverse might be true here !
    The video released of the accident looks like it’s from a cheap phone camera. A professional TV broadcast camera can indeed make a very dark scene look quite bright, as it’s got a £20k F1.6 lens on the front of it!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,504
    "Populism nevertheless has a finite lifespan,"

    What then? Does unpopulism take over? The loser of an election takes over?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:


    The released camera footage is ludicrously dark. The internet is now awash with videos of people driving down that same stretch of road and it is lit perfectly well - easily enough to see a person crossing the street in plenty of time.

    In cricket they often go off for bad light even though it looks fine on the TV because the camera makes the playing area look lighter than it actually is.
    So you could well be right that the obverse might be true here !
    AIUI there were visible-light cameras, radar and LIDAR working together.

    I really doubt all three of these failed to detect the obstruction. Instead, I'm guessing it will be in how these inputs are processed. It might be as 'simple' as LIDAR and visible-light cameras not detecting her, so the computers threw out the radar return as erroneous. Or that their system is not designed to cope with the sort of returns you get from someone pushing a bike.

    We probably shouldn't get wound up by the sensors (though if it is them at fault, that's a humongous issue for everyone developing this tech); rather the real-time processing of that data.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    edited March 23
    Afghanistan need 39 runs from 35 balls, with six wickets left. They should get that.
    Edit: big six, now 31 from 33, should be comfortably home from there.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640
    Alistair said:


    American road fatalities are 1 fatality per 100million miles. Uber self driving cars are at 1 fatality after 3million miles.

    Given the early stages of the technology, I think it is too early for that to be a fair comparison. The early days of user driven cars had significant challenges to overcome.

    This is not to deny the seriousness of the incident that cost a life. But there will be more difficult situations as the technology is developed.

    There will be those who question whether the concept of driverless vehicles will ever be desirable - but as we have already started down that route, I am not certain that people will stop development as a result of one fatal incident.
This discussion has been closed.