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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe won’t split Labour – but it does present a problem for

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 24 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Europe won’t split Labour – but it does present a problem for GE2022

It’s not true that the Conservatives have been split from top to bottom on the subject of Europe for the last 70 years. Occasionally, peace broke out and something approaching a consensus arose. The first decade of Margaret Thatcher’s leadership was one such, when the Tories were enthusiastic about the EEC and keen to complete the Single Market. Later, under William Hague, the party settled on what amounted to ‘thus far and no further’. But for most of the post-war era, EU enthusiasts have competed with sceptics for ascendency in policy and in the party.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556
    1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    Just a second....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,413
    Herders - Assuming the next general election is in 2022 !!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,400
    daodao said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Labour figures have criticised Jeremy Corbyn's decision to sack his shadow Northern Ireland secretary for calling for another EU referendum.

    Labour peer Peter Hain described the dismissal as a "Stalinist purge".

    If Owen Smith was digging nickel in the Siberian mines then that might have had some validity. Actually he has just returned to the backbenches.

    How would the Conservative party have reacted if a Cabinet member had advocated a second referendum? Would that be fine and dandy or a sacking as part of a "Stalinist Purge"?
    The problem is that it looks like Corbyn has finally come of the fence and unfortunately for most of his supporters on the wrong side. A serious error in my opinion. Smith's fate is neither here nor there.
    Why is it a serious error? He can hardly tolerate a member of the shadow cabinet openly opposing core party policy; to do so would have shown weakness.

    It is the usual suspects such as Umunna who are making a fuss. Should the likes of Umunna still be Labour MPs, when their views diverge so far from most Labour party members?
    But they don't. 78% of Labour members are Remainers. This just reminds them of Corbyn's equivocation and Streeting has found a soundbite which is giving it legs. It also ill behoves someone with Corbyn's history to sack someone for having strongly held and independent views.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    The threat to Labour is that a new party develops that seeks to rejoin the EU similar to that that existed for Leave (UKIP) and which splits the vote. In theory the more the leadership seem content to accept the status quo and are reluctant to argue for such a possibility the more room there is for such a party but the barriers are huge.

    If 20+ MPs such as Owen Smith were willing to take that step Labour would have a problem. There is a precedent, the SDP was largely formed by Labour politicians who opposed the party's then policy on Europe but one only has to compare the likes of Smith or Umuna with Roy Jenkins or Shirley Williams to see how different the current landscape is.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,554
    JackW said:

    Herders - Assuming the next general election is in 2022 !!

    Based on what happened last time TMay or successor is unlikely to take the risk of going early. Remember the Tories had a 25% lead at the end of April
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,577

    JackW said:

    Herders - Assuming the next general election is in 2022 !!

    Based on what happened last time TMay or successor is unlikely to take the risk of going early. Remember the Tories had a 25% lead at the end of April
    ... according to the polls.. the reality was that they didn't....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Interesting article, Mr. Herdson. But would the Lib Dems benefit from Labour supporters grumpy about their party not being pro-rejoining enough? They didn't do well from hardcore Remainers in the last election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    The LibDems need a more attractive leader than Vince (is there one less attractive?). If that leader then really went to town on the deep-seated anti-semitism in Labour, whilst offering something more EU friendly than Jeremy "Brexit's bessy mate" Corbyn, there is a road back to their viability again at national level. There's a sizeable part of Labour's soft-left vote that is clearly unhappy with the "we'll get power - but OUR way " of the hard-left underpinning of Momentum.

    But once we leave, the EU will be a marginal issue in British politics. Housing and health will be far higher up the agenda. The idea of diverting a sizeable chunk of funding for those two - just to pay membership fees of something we are living happily without - is just not going to fly with the voters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    edited March 24
    Someone asked the other day about Jarvis standing down. It seems I was mistaken, and he only has to do so if he wins the mayoralty:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-43517234

    Edited extra bit: although the end of that article suggests he might try doing both anyway.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,577
    edited March 24
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    edited March 24
    FPT
    @Cyclefree said:
    Does being a supporter of the oppressed justify associating with Holocaust deniers - people who do not just spew hatred but deny facts? Holocaust deniers tend, on the whole, to be quite keen on oppression of Jews. Does Corbyn’s support of the oppressed not extend to oppressed Jews?

    The difficulty with Corbyn’s views is that he claims to have principles but when his record is examined his support of those principles is in reality pretty wafer-thin. It would be truer to say that he likes some goups and does not care about others. Jews fall in the group he does not care about and therefore he is utterly indifferent to attacks on them, regardless of the source, type and offensiveness. Until it is pointed out and then he realises that it does not look good and he makes all sorts of inconsistent statements (some would call them lies) about not having seen or read the offensive material in question etc etc.

    But it all feels as if he realises has been caught out and is trying to deal with the perception created rather than that he has a genuine understanding of why, for instance, no respectable, intelligent or decent politician ahould ever associate with Holocaust deniers.

    I say, obviously not. But if you think that your people are being brutalised by an occupying force that is quite open to shooting children, which destroys the family home of any that oppose them, that has used water and food as weapons and which constantly refers back to the Holocaust to justify all this is it really surprising that some of their supporters get very fed up with this get out of jail free card and question its validity?

    These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,337
    @MikeSmithson - thanks for creating this wonderful website. I’ve been hooked since 2007 :smile:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Mark, Lamb!

    Better than Farron and better than Cable. Serious, intelligent, and has experience of government. Not a leftwing dingbat like Cable, more sensible and serious than most of the Cabinet.

    He should've stood last time, although I seem to recall he felt his policy of respecting the referendum result wouldn't sit well with Lib Dem members. Ironic, given their name.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,400
    I think this is significant. The fig leaf that was Corbyn's equivocation has gone once and for all. Smith smoked him out. We could be witnessing the first flap of the butterly....


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    F1: 5 place grid penalty, as expected, for Bottas (gearbox change).
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 964
    One of the big problems of the anti Corbyn MPs is the referendum split some of them off.

    So if we take Caroline Flint for example, she can't really afford to split off from Labour on this basis, her area voted leave and her majority is a few thousand rather than being untouchable.

    Then the areas with the biggest remain vote are sometimes the areas that Corbyn has a lot of support. Any remain led split in Labour would likely be crushed unless events really work in their favour.
  • Roger said:

    I think this is significant. The fig leaf that was Corbyn's equivocation has gone once and for all. Smith smoked him out. We could be witnessing the first flap of the butterly....


    Dream on Roger. There will be a bit of a twitter spat, but none of the Labour moderates have the balls to do anything other than post a few snarky social media comments.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    Labour has no moral authority on Brexit. It is all over the shop.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    At the risk of appalling @Cyclefree even further I am off for my cappuccino (with chocolate sprinkles) but haven't I seen that bus somewhere before?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 356
    DavidL said:

    The threat to Labour is that a new party develops that seeks to rejoin the EU similar to that that existed for Leave (UKIP) and which splits the vote. In theory the more the leadership seem content to accept the status quo and are reluctant to argue for such a possibility the more room there is for such a party but the barriers are huge.

    If 20+ MPs such as Owen Smith were willing to take that step Labour would have a problem. There is a precedent, the SDP was largely formed by Labour politicians who opposed the party's then policy on Europe but one only has to compare the likes of Smith or Umuna with Roy Jenkins or Shirley Williams to see how different the current landscape is.

    Very good point about the SDP being formed by Labour Europhiles.....although David Owen seems to have gone a bit rogue - the lesson was harsh for both Labour and the SDP splitters, doesnt mean it might not happen. MOMENTUM's young, europhile membership is a bit quiet on the matter - thats where pressure could be applied.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,462
    Hope we get some more polls this weekend.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244

    F1: 5 place grid penalty, as expected, for Bottas (gearbox change).

    Morning Mr.D.
    Interesting stats on the improvement in qualifying times from last year:
    2017 Vs 2018:
    Hamilton 1.22.188 - 1.21.164 = 1,024 Seconds
    Vettel 1.22.456 - 1.21.838 = 0,618 Seconds
    Verstappen 1.23.485 - 1.21.879 = 1,606 Seconds.

    Rather suggests (as does Vettel's lack of advantage over Raikkonen) that Ferrari have yet to get to the best from their new car, in the same way Merecedes struggled with handling at the beginning of last season.
    And Red Bull are a contender on the non-power tracks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. B, didn't someone, perhaps you, say Australia was top quartile for power?

    Given the probable qualifying power deficit, I'd say that qualifying was a fantastic result for Red Bull.

    Lengthening the wheelbase must've affected Ferrari on street circuits. Might that not explain the (relative) performance loss?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591
    edited March 24
    Roger said:

    I think this is significant. The fig leaf that was Corbyn's equivocation has gone once and for all. Smith smoked him out. We could be witnessing the first flap of the butterly....


    I think this is a big moment for labour and Brexit. Corbyn clearly needs Brexit for his policies and he will not prejeudice this once in a lifetime opportunity to leave the EU.

    It is said there are 80 or so labour mps who are committed remain supporters and if they want to have any effect on Brexit they need to be courageous and resign the whip and form their own group and invite other mps to join them.

    My wife and I agree that we need to leave the EU but we need a close relationship with Europe probably defined as Associate Membership, and would expect that in due course and time the UK could rejoin the EU but only if it has not become a United States of Europe and respects the democracy of individual member states. (Also that Junckers is long gone and forever remembered as the person who lost the UK to Europe)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    At the last general election we were still in the EU, the single market and customs union so voters who wanted to stop the Tories could vote Labour even if they were strong Remainers and know that for most of a Labour government we would still be in the EU or single market for most purposes once the transition period was included.

    By the time of the next scheduled general election in 2022 the Tory government supported by the DUP will have taken us out of the EU, the single market and most likely the customs union too with Corbyn supporting the Tories on all of that bar leaving the Customs Union. Diehard Remainers May therefore decide that while they could never vote Tory voting LD rather than for Corbyn Labour is the only way to challenge Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824

    DavidL said:

    The threat to Labour is that a new party develops that seeks to rejoin the EU similar to that that existed for Leave (UKIP) and which splits the vote. In theory the more the leadership seem content to accept the status quo and are reluctant to argue for such a possibility the more room there is for such a party but the barriers are huge.

    If 20+ MPs such as Owen Smith were willing to take that step Labour would have a problem. There is a precedent, the SDP was largely formed by Labour politicians who opposed the party's then policy on Europe but one only has to compare the likes of Smith or Umuna with Roy Jenkins or Shirley Williams to see how different the current landscape is.

    Very good point about the SDP being formed by Labour Europhiles.....although David Owen seems to have gone a bit rogue - the lesson was harsh for both Labour and the SDP splitters, doesnt mean it might not happen. MOMENTUM's young, europhile membership is a bit quiet on the matter - thats where pressure could be applied.
    Momentum is not that Europhile and even contains Leavers, it is socialism that matters to Momentum not the EU or the single market
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,337
    The previous thread was pretty grim. At least this one is better so far!

    Less than 10% of Britons identify as European. Once we’ve left, and the economy hasn’t collapsed, enthusiasm for reopening the issue will dwindle, and will deter swing voters.

    To win an election, Labour needs to attract the support of ex Tories and ex Leavers.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640
    Any new centre left party needs to bring a couple of big unions with it. If it starts to see success, more will follow. But it is still a big ask. Necessary but daunting
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Congratulations too to OGH on the on anniversary, he has created one of the most respected politics sites on the web and the fact he gets so many media invites to discuss election stories only reinforces that
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.

    However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.

    *Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,778

    Labour has no moral authority on Brexit. It is all over the shop.
    You could stop after 'authority' there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244

    Mr. B, didn't someone, perhaps you, say Australia was top quartile for power?

    Given the probable qualifying power deficit, I'd say that qualifying was a fantastic result for Red Bull.

    Lengthening the wheelbase must've affected Ferrari on street circuits. Might that not explain the (relative) performance loss?

    I believe that might have been me ...... and yes, an excellent result for Red Bull, as the time improvement over last year shows.
    I think too much is made of the wheelbase thing in terms of street circuits; it's more about learning how to best manage the tyres with the very different car dynamics. Mercedes have had a season working at the problem and seem to have cracked it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591
    I would suggest that if the remain labour mps do not act they will face de-selection anyway (as Mr Wiseman had affirmed) and as an active group they probably have nearly 4 years to establish themselves before facing the electorate
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,238
    edited March 24
    DavidL said:

    FPT
    @Cyclefree said:


    I say, obviously not. [Snipped]

    These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.

    A few points: -

    1. What you say may excuse how some Palestinians feel but it does not justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.

    2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.

    3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.

    4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopolitan and somehow undemining the state. This tradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (which also conveniently includes a wrong-headed anti-colonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.

    It disgraces Labour.

    I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.

    It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202

    JackW said:

    Herders - Assuming the next general election is in 2022 !!

    Based on what happened last time TMay or successor is unlikely to take the risk of going early. Remember the Tories had a 25% lead at the end of April
    Absolutely. The risk of Corbyn is too great apart from anything else. We must all hope something turns up in those four years to puncture his teflon bubble.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202

    I would suggest that if the remain labour mps do not act they will face de-selection anyway (as Mr Wiseman had affirmed) and as an active group they probably have nearly 4 years to establish themselves before facing the electorate

    This:

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    Foxy said:

    Labour figures have criticised Jeremy Corbyn's decision to sack his shadow Northern Ireland secretary for calling for another EU referendum.

    Labour peer Peter Hain described the dismissal as a "Stalinist purge".

    If Owen Smith was digging nickel in the Siberian mines then that might have had some validity. Actually he has just returned to the backbenches.

    How would the Conservative party have reacted if a Cabinet member had advocated a second referendum? Would that be fine and dandy or a sacking as part of a "Stalinist Purge"?
    It is true publicly going against policy is not really unreasonable grounds for being sacked. The problem is others have argued for the same, and it upsets those who probably hoped the policy would shift. Heck, it might still shift.

    Storm in a tea cup. Some backbenchers will whine but they cannot beat Corbyn. They know it and he knows it.
    kle4 said:

    It's easy to make a less than credible defence In a statement, it only has to convince enough people it's not worth fighting on not convince everyone, but I wonder if Berger or Gapes or whoever will ask Corbyn about all this face to face to see how convincing he is in person.

    Come to think of it isn't "I didn't notice the offensive parts' Trump's go to explanation if he links something?

    The Smith stuff probably has greater potential for trouble, given how many MPS and members probably want a second ref.



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    daodao said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Labour figures have criticised Jeremy Corbyn's decision to sack his shadow Northern Ireland secretary for calling for another EU referendum.

    Labour peer Peter Hain described the dismissal as a "Stalinist purge".

    If Owen Smith was digging nickel in the Siberian mines then that might have had some validity. Actually he has just returned to the backbenches.

    How would the Conservative party have reacted if a Cabinet member had advocated a second referendum? Would that be fine and dandy or a sacking as part of a "Stalinist Purge"?
    The problem is that it looks like Corbyn has finally come of the fence and unfortunately for most of his supporters on the wrong side. A serious error in my opinion. Smith's fate is neither here nor there.
    Why is it a serious error? He can hardly tolerate a member of the shadow cabinet openly opposing core party policy; to do so would have shown weakness.

    It is the usual suspects such as Umunna who are making a fuss. Should the likes of Umunna still be Labour MPs, when their views diverge so far from most Labour party members?
    That might be a decent point in theory - there are people who seem so out keeping with their party it feels odd they don't leave - but of course Corbyn's history undermines it in practice. A man who rebelled so many times might be argued to be in the wrong party but no one seemed to think so then.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    DavidL said:

    The threat to Labour is that a new party develops that seeks to rejoin the EU similar to that that existed for Leave (UKIP) and which splits the vote.

    I suggest calling it the United Kingdom Integration Party. The branding might become available soon if old Ukip goes down.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597
    It's about electoral reform.

    Perhaps he means PR?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,966

    Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.

    However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.

    *Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.

    The SDP did, in fact, achieve its objectives. When it became clear that it presented an existential threat to Labour, Kinnock expelled Militant Tendency, opening up the road for Blair to deliver what was essentially the SDP's programme.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Rabbit, could be, the keys are adjacent.

    PR, of course, is the work of Satan. Not to mention the idiot in question is seeking to change the electoral system on the basis of what advantages his own side and harms his main opponent.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,400
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    @Cyclefree said:


    I say, obviously not. [Snipped]

    These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.

    A few points: -

    1. What you say may excuse how some Palestinians feel but it does not justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.

    2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.

    3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail.

    4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopolitan and somehow undemining the state. This tradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (which also conveniently includes a wrong-headed anti-colonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.

    It disgraces Labour.

    I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.

    It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.

    The reason I suspect so many wave it away is because of the embarrassment of having to line up next to those non Jews who jump on the anti-Semite bandwagon without even knowing what 'being a Jew' means.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Nashe, interesting take. And yet another argument for SDP2.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202
    edited March 24

    It's about electoral reform.

    Perhaps he means PR?
    That's what I thought, but just wanted to check I'm not missing out on some whizzy new technique.

    In my day, OR was Operations Research, and involved things like queuing theory.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,535
    It might be a typo. It might be 'Organised Revolt'. It's hard to tell with Williamson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765

    Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.

    However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.

    *Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.

    As the polls show the brands of the parties have been resilient even at the worst of times. Particularly since June 2017 who would think themselves the next macron? So there's the emotional issue of abandoning the beans and the practical problems, it's just not worth it for those are miserable. Get a new job or play the long game like Corbyn, they've made up their minds.

    They should have their little sounding offs on twitter and have no more talk of new parties, we know it won't happen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202

    Mr. Rabbit, could be, the keys are adjacent.

    PR, of course, is the work of Satan. Not to mention the idiot in question is seeking to change the electoral system on the basis of what advantages his own side and harms his main opponent.

    I would have thought PR would be a disaster for Corbynism. It would remove the main reason why nobody dares to jump and form SDP II.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,153
    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. kle4, perhaps. More likely they're frit to take drastic action and be audacious, then rationalise that away.

    Hannibal crossing the Alps they are not.

    Mr. Borough, be a disaster for the UK political system generally, though that's a good point.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    I see in The Times today that Sir Nick Clegg is urging centrist Labour MPs to get their skates on and to form a new party. Are senior LibDems coming to the view that their brand is terminally tainted, so might as well throw their lot in with a new product?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    edited March 24
    More arrests in catalonia. They finally decide on a presidential candidate who isn't in prison and then he's one of those arrested!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43523811

    If as reported support for independence has dropped sharply, maybe the Spanish authorities should consider some sort of official vote.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,609

    F1: 5 place grid penalty, as expected, for Bottas (gearbox change).

    He’ll be starting from the pit lane anyway, assuming his car is taken out of parc ferme to repair it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    edited March 24

    Mr. kle4, perhaps. More likely they're frit to take drastic action and be audacious, then rationalise that away.

    Hannibal crossing the Alps they are not.

    Mr. Borough, be a disaster for the UK political system generally, though that's a good point.

    Didn't more than half of Hannibals men die crossing the alps? And not to go all TSE, he ended up losing the war, even if that wad not his fault. So fortune woukd not favour the brave mps in the end, they woukd fear.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,153
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
    I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.

    If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?

    Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
    I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.

    If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?
    .
    Sounds very plausible.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,681
    kle4 said:

    More arrests in catalonia. They finally decide on a presidential candidate who isn't in prison and then he's one of those arrested!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43523811

    If as reported support for independence has dropped sharply, maybe the Spanish authorities should consider some sort of official vote.

    Not quite correct. they knew he was in line for arrest before he was nominated. they then brought the vote forward to get him voted in before the court met to order his arrest. He then lost the early vote. The trick failed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    More arrests in catalonia. They finally decide on a presidential candidate who isn't in prison and then he's one of those arrested!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43523811

    If as reported support for independence has dropped sharply, maybe the Spanish authorities should consider some sort of official vote.

    Not quite correct. they knew he was in line for arrest before he was nominated. they then brought the vote forward to get him voted in before the court met to order his arrest. He then lost the early vote. The trick failed.
    I see. Although frankly how all of them who were mps at the time of declaring independence are not in line for arrest seems a little odd. Support their cause or not, that's a pretty clear piece of evidence of a secession attempt .

    Any sign of longterm stability?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,785
    Barnesian said:



    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    It's possible or even probable that we'll still be in some sort of transition state by 2022. Brexit will be hazy and unresolved like that week between Xmas and NYE where one staggers round wondering what day it is as if one were a dementia sufferer.

    If that's the case they are all going to have to articulate a Brexit position. The current vogue for creative ambiguity is going to be hopelessly fucked out by then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
    I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.

    If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?

    Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
    The numbers might be there for CU, but not SM I think.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597
    edited March 24

    Mr. Rabbit, could be, the keys are adjacent.

    PR, of course, is the work of Satan. Not to mention the idiot in question is seeking to change the electoral system on the basis of what advantages his own side and harms his main opponent.

    I would have thought PR would be a disaster for Corbynism. It would remove the main reason why nobody dares to jump and form SDP II.
    I think when UKIP were doing well, it would have been worth it to have splintered both sides of the spectrum. Not so sure now though.

    If people had voted the same way the last election would have been

    Con 276
    Lab 261
    LD 49
    SNP 20
    UKIP 12
    Green 11
    PC 3
    NI 18

    But my estimate of how they would have actually looked is something like:

    Con 236
    Lab 211 (under a remainer since Corbyn isn't part of the party)
    LibDem-Centre Alliance 74
    The Left 40
    Green 21
    UKIP 25
    SNP 20 (quite a different 20 though!)
    PC 5
    NI 18

    Govern that...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,153
    RoyalBlue said:

    @MikeSmithson - thanks for creating this wonderful website. I’ve been hooked since 2007 :smile:

    I agree it is wonderful. No only the betting tips and leads, but also the different strongly held and sometimes well argued points of view on matters political and economic (and pizza, Xmas films, railways and other oddball interests)

    Sometimes I think it provides psychotherapy and allows posters to get some powerful emotions off their chest and no doubt provides relief.

    In another 14 years I predict most posters will be AI bots proving interesting facts, provocative arguments, trolling, and all the other stuff we do - with a few humans still left on the site getting psycho-therapeutic relief.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
    I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.

    If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?

    Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
    No. Corbyn has just sacked Smith for backing a second referendum and the single market is off limits for him too because of Labour Leavers opposed to free movement and blocking of his nationalisation plans. CM is as far as he goes
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    edited March 24
    Mr. kle4, yes, he had significant losses, and Carthage ultimately lost the war.

    However, he smashed the Romans in numerous battles and spent over a decade rampaging around Italy. The loss, ultimately, was down to the constitutional strength of Rome and weakness of Carthage.

    Crossing the Alps enabled Hannibal to reach Italy, which caused the Romans huge problems.

    Edited extra bit: hmm. Raikkonen is 9 to win. He starts 2nd. Not backing it, but he was 31 yesterday...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Rubbish. The majority of the country voted for Brexit and most Tory voters are Leavers and the Tories are still polling well over 40% in most polls. People also said the same about Corbyn as they do JRM though Boris is more likely in my view. If Corbyn Labour get in it will be scraping through the backdoor with the SNP
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,153
    Dura_Ace said:

    Barnesian said:



    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    It's possible or even probable that we'll still be in some sort of transition state by 2022. Brexit will be hazy and unresolved like that week between Xmas and NYE where one staggers round wondering what day it is as if one were a dementia sufferer.

    If that's the case they are all going to have to articulate a Brexit position. The current vogue for creative ambiguity is going to be hopelessly fucked out by then.
    :) You describe the transition state very well! The Tories will own the dementia. It will be "Time for a Change." Big time.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,223
    edited March 24

    In my day, OR was Operations Research, and involved things like queuing theory.

    [pedantmode on]

    "Operational Research", thank you, not "Operations Research" (the latter is an Americanism). I don't care what the Americans say, the Brits invented it... :) Although David Edgerton argues quite strongly that its date of invention long precedes the academic date.

    [pedant mode off]



  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,357


    These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.

    1. What you say may excuse how some Palestinians feel but it does not justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.

    2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.

    3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.

    4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopolitan and somehow undemining the state. This tradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (which also conveniently includes a wrong-headed anti-colonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.

    It disgraces Labour.

    I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.

    It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.

    I agree with DavidL. Also who are these posters on here who wave way anti-Semitism ? You sicken me by making such an accusation without quoting them.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193

    JackW said:

    Herders - Assuming the next general election is in 2022 !!

    Based on what happened last time TMay or successor is unlikely to take the risk of going early. Remember the Tories had a 25% lead at the end of April
    ... according to the polls.. the reality was that they didn't....
    The local elections strongly indicate that those polls were right.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,153
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
    I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.

    If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?

    Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
    No. Corbyn has just sacked Smith for backing a second referendum and the single market is off limits for him too because of Labour Leavers opposed to free movement and blocking of his nationalisation plans. CM is as far as he goes
    We don't know that is as far as he goes. He surprised us on the CU. He's more politically astute than May. Whatever gets him into power. He's not as ideologically pure as he's made out to be. Quite pragmatic in fact.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114



    But my estimate of how they would have actually looked is something like:

    Con 236
    Lab 211 (under a remainer since Corbyn isn't part of the party)
    LibDem-Centre Alliance 74
    The Left 40
    Green 21
    UKIP 25
    SNP 20 (quite a different 20 though!)
    PC 5
    NI 18

    Govern that...

    A broad left alliance lead by Labour.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
    I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.

    If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?

    Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
    No. Corbyn has just sacked Smith for backing a second referendum and the single market is off limits for him too because of Labour Leavers opposed to free movement and blocking of his nationalisation plans. CM is as far as he goes
    Does Labour know how it will vote??
  • Mr. kle4, yes, he had significant losses, and Carthage ultimately lost the war.

    However, he smashed the Romans in numerous battles and spent over a decade rampaging around Italy. The loss, ultimately, was down to the constitutional strength of Rome and weakness of Carthage.

    Crossing the Alps enabled Hannibal to reach Italy, which caused the Romans huge problems.

    Hannibal and Carthage sounds a lot like Hitler and Nazi Germany.

    Got lucky against some disorganised opponents but when they became organised they won and ultimately Carthage/Germany ceased to be nations as they were before.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    edited March 24

    Mr. kle4, yes, he had significant losses, and Carthage ultimately lost the war.

    However, he smashed the Romans in numerous battles and spent over a decade rampaging around Italy. The loss, ultimately, was down to the constitutional strength of Rome and weakness of Carthage.

    Crossing the Alps enabled Hannibal to reach Italy, which caused the Romans huge problems.

    Edited extra bit: hmm. Raikkonen is 9 to win. He starts 2nd. Not backing it, but he was 31 yesterday...

    Oh I know he did great. But it's about how many would fall on the way, ultimately for a loss, no matter how well they did. Of course no MP wants to do that. To paraphrase how GRRM once put it, about a different story (since Hannibal did not die).

    He lost. He lost the battle, he lost the war, he lost the kingdom, and he lost his life. His blood swirled downriver with the rubies from his breastplate and the usurper rode over his corpse to steal the throne. He fought valiantly, he fought nobly, he fought valiantly. And he died.

    No one wants to be the one dying a noble political death, and very few will risk it even if there's a chance of being the next Macron, and certainly not when they guy they would split from is very popular with the members they hope to take with them.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,153
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
    I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.

    If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?

    Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
    The numbers might be there for CU, but not SM I think.
    I agree given the Labour Party current position on SM.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    edited March 24
    Are we supposed to be surprised? After all he lobbied to get an ISIS terrorist fund raiser out of prison for Christmas, which I am still shocked got hardly any attention.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597
    Pulpstar said:



    But my estimate of how they would have actually looked is something like:

    Con 236
    Lab 211 (under a remainer since Corbyn isn't part of the party)
    LibDem-Centre Alliance 74
    The Left 40
    Green 21
    UKIP 25
    SNP 20 (quite a different 20 though!)
    PC 5
    NI 18

    Govern that...

    A broad left alliance lead by Labour.
    Four parties, although it does pretty much resolve in to the current Labour coalition:

    either a leftist Leave leader, and LD-Centre (remain) becomes difficult to manage, or vice versa.


    The Green Party (I think there would be only one under PR) would be an interesting concept, probably far less of the statist-excuse ("watermelons") they are now
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Four years is a long time in politics, but I can't see the Tories being slaughtered (they may still lose). Brexit is sufficiently popular, and Corbyn sufficiently unpopular, to shore up the Tory vote.
  • I still think Brexit has the potential to be The Corn Laws Redux for the Tories.

    Shame on those Tories preaching protectionism and economic nationalism.

    You’d expect such nonsense from morons like Priti Patel.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,801
    Roger said:

    I think this is significant. The fig leaf that was Corbyn's equivocation has gone once and for all. Smith smoked him out. We could be witnessing the first flap of the butterly....


    Or of the turkey, a flightless bird I believe.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    A brazen scooter gang targets BBC cameras along the route of the university boat race

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/23/brazen-scooter-gang-targets-bbc-cameras-along-route-university/

    The plod really need to get a handle on this stuff.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,801

    I would suggest that if the remain labour mps do not act they will face de-selection anyway (as Mr Wiseman had affirmed) and as an active group they probably have nearly 4 years to establish themselves before facing the electorate

    This:

    I'm not sure if Masterton is the best advocate of putting your head above the parapet.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597

    JackW said:

    Herders - Assuming the next general election is in 2022 !!

    Based on what happened last time TMay or successor is unlikely to take the risk of going early. Remember the Tories had a 25% lead at the end of April
    ... according to the polls.. the reality was that they didn't....
    The local elections strongly indicate that those polls were right.
    Local elections pointed to a lead of 12-15% points, which was not the high point of the polls but equally suggests some proper movement before polling day
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,535
    Sean_F said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good piece from DH.

    Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:

    1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party.
    2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.

    It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.

    By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.

    The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Four years is a long time in politics, but I can't see the Tories being slaughtered (they may still lose). Brexit is sufficiently popular, and Corbyn sufficiently unpopular, to shore up the Tory vote.
    I am baffled by the certitude with which some people post. I've never felt the future to be so opaque. That's partly because we're dealing with 27 counterparties, partly US/China shenanigans and partly the seething tensions in both our major political parties.

    The only sane thing to do is simply watch events unfolding while enjoying life as much as possible.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,681
    Yorkcity said:



    These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.

    1. What you say may excuse how some Paleot justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.

    2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.

    3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.

    4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopoliundinining the stateradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (whicolonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.

    It disgraces Labour.

    I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.

    It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.

    I agree with DavidL. Also who are these posters on here who wave way anti-Semitism ? You sicken me by making such an accusation without quoting them.

    Foxy and BJO, especially the latter were pretty explicit last night. The lack of moral compass was both stark and sad.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Eagles, disorganised opponents?

    Like Scipio? And Sempronius? And Flaminius? And Marcellus? And Varro/Paullus?

    He rampaged around Italy for over a decade when the Republic was at the height of its patriotic power.

    Mr. kle4, to defeat Persia, Thermopylae was necessary.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 606
    Belated congratulations on the 14th anniversary!

    I joined in about 2008 and remember thinking Rod Crosby was a bit of a leftie for predicting the Tories would fail to get a majority! I hope I now understand GE probabilities modelling and trading betting far better than I did thanks to this site.

    Posted more often in my first couple of years and thoroughly enjoyed jousting with tim who could be entertaining and infuriating in equal measure.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,681
    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    More arrests in catalonia. They finally decide on a presidential candidate who isn't in prison and then he's one of those arrested!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43523811

    If as reported support for independence has dropped sharply, maybe the Spanish authorities should consider some sort of official vote.

    Not quite correct. they knew he was in line for arrest before he was nominated. they then brought the vote forward to get him voted in before the court met to order his arrest. He then lost the early vote. The trick failed.
    I see. Although frankly how all of them who were mps at the time of declaring independence are not in line for arrest seems a little odd. Support their cause or not, that's a pretty clear piece of evidence of a secession attempt .

    Any sign of longterm stability?
    Enhanced autonomy the likeliest outcome but it may take some time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,606
    edited March 24
    Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.

    On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2018/mar/23/first-non-stop-direct-flight-between-uk-and-australia-perth-london

    It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597
    Think it was 2010 I originally joined which is eight years in itself!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    I bet the Russian are really scared (not). Embarrassing both that they are causing trouble, but also falling over parked scooters as they can't even organize themselves to get away from the police.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5536775/England-football-louts-causing-chaos-Amsterdam-ahead-friendly-fixture.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765

    Mr. Eagles, disorganised opponents?

    Like Scipio? And Sempronius? And Flaminius? And Marcellus? And Varro/Paullus?

    He rampaged around Italy for over a decade when the Republic was at the height of its patriotic power.

    Mr. kle4, to defeat Persia, Thermopylae was necessary.

    Yes, but to the Labour MPs, clearly, even if they do not like Corbyn, they do not want to defeat Corbynism so badly that their careers are finished. Presumably in the Thermopylae analogy they would be a greek ally of Sparta, with Sparta being Corbynism. They might not like it, but they will help it to defeat the Persians (Tories).
  • Mr. Eagles, disorganised opponents?

    Like Scipio? And Sempronius? And Flaminius? And Marcellus? And Varro/Paullus?

    He rampaged around Italy for over a decade when the Republic was at the height of its patriotic power.

    Mr. kle4, to defeat Persia, Thermopylae was necessary.

    I was talking about Rome in general not individual opponents.

    Had Rome been more organised and less arrogant they’d have crushed Hannibal within a few years.

    Like Hitler, Hannibal despite a few early victories lost the war, endex.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193

    JackW said:

    Herders - Assuming the next general election is in 2022 !!

    Based on what happened last time TMay or successor is unlikely to take the risk of going early. Remember the Tories had a 25% lead at the end of April
    ... according to the polls.. the reality was that they didn't....
    The local elections strongly indicate that those polls were right.
    Local elections pointed to a lead of 12-15% points, which was not the high point of the polls but equally suggests some proper movement before polling day
    Lib Dems always do better in local elections. That inevitably takes some share from the leading party, which by definition must have a disproportionately large share of floating voters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765

    Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.

    On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2018/mar/23/first-non-stop-direct-flight-between-uk-and-australia-perth-london

    It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?

    I have flown very rarely, but on those occasions I have they have usually been 11-12 hour flights. Regrettably i struggle to sleep on planes so its boring, but even in economy i got by just fine. As you say more room would be nice, but you get what you pay for there, and i don't see that 17 hours should be a step too far for people.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. kle4, then they're idiots. The far left and the far right are the enemies of all reasonable people.

    Mr. Eagles, Rome was extremely well-organised. The arrogance point is legitimate, although the only commander in Italy to equal him was Quintus Fabius Maximus (Scipio beat him at Zama, of course, but did have substantial advantages in other areas).

    Also, your Hitler comparison, beyond the obvious ridiculousness, is ineffably wrong. Hannibal was a brilliant leader of men. Hitler put himself in command of certain armed forces groups and tended to bugger things up. The less Hitler had to do with actual military decisions, the better the Nazis did. The less Hannibal had to do with decisions, the worse the Carthaginians did.

    Anyway, I must be off for a little while, but I shall return to peruse the markets.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,400
    edited March 24
    A sign of the times....Until yesterday there was only one house on Cap Ferrat with visible security. Two men in dark suits and shades occasionally talking into their sleeves outside each of the entrances to Paul Allen's house.

    Now there are three! I can only guess that the new ones are Russian and the whiff of Novichok has found its way to the Riviera
This discussion has been closed.