Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:
1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party. 2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.
It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.
By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.
The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg
Four years is a long time in politics, but I can't see the Tories being slaughtered (they may still lose). Brexit is sufficiently popular, and Corbyn sufficiently unpopular, to shore up the Tory vote.
I am baffled by the certitude with which some people post. I've never felt the future to be so opaque. That's partly because we're dealing with 27 counterparties, partly US/China shenanigans and partly the seething tensions in both our major political parties.
The only sane thing to do is simply watch events unfolding while enjoying life as much as possible.
It's not that baffling when you consider the curious overlap between what many people think will happen, and what they want to happen.... I agree with the enjoying life sentiment; if you allow your state of mind to be determined by political outcomes, then you're bound to spend a significant part of your life miserable or depressed.
Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
The trouble with a 17 hour flight to Perth is - you arrive in Perth.
(I once went there simply for a short meeting, just to have a face-to-face shouting match with somebody. At least it worked - they stopped trying to invoice us for stuff that they had been told umpteen times we wouldn't be paying for.)
Labour moderates will not do anything - they know that (a. they benefit from the Labour brand (b. that their centrism will not sweep them to power. For all his popularity once upon a time and his GE wins Blair is one of the most disliked figures in the country which I think in and of itself makes a statement about how popular a Blairite Labour platform would be.
I agree with the moderates on Corbyn but I increasingly find it harder and harder to sympathise with them. They have handled things very badly since 2010, and I think a lot of their issues stem from that.
I also don’t think all these Tory and LD MPs/senior figures egging them on to leave Labour/backing them will help them get a hearing in Labour. If anything, it will be the opposite.
No one should be surprised about Corbyn re yesterday and the mural. He’s shown people what he’s about time and time again.
Herders - Assuming the next general election is in 2022 !!
Based on what happened last time TMay or successor is unlikely to take the risk of going early. Remember the Tories had a 25% lead at the end of April
... according to the polls.. the reality was that they didn't....
The local elections strongly indicate that those polls were right.
Local elections pointed to a lead of 12-15% points, which was not the high point of the polls but equally suggests some proper movement before polling day
Lib Dems always do better in local elections. That inevitably takes some share from the leading party, which by definition must have a disproportionately large share of floating voters.
I still don't think you get past 15 points. I think the LibDems had a poor GE campaign, at least in terms of national votes rather than local battlegrounds
Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
The trouble with a 17 hour flight to Perth is - you arrive in Perth.
(I once went there simply for a short meeting, just to have a face-to-face shouting match with somebody. At least it worked - they stopped trying to invoice us for stuff that they had been told umpteen times we wouldn't be paying for.)
Labour moderates will not do anything - they know that (a. they benefit from the Labour brand (b. that their centrism will not sweep them to power. For all his popularity once upon a time and his GE wins Blair is one of the most disliked figures in the country which I think in and of itself makes a statement about how popular a Blairite Labour platform would be.
I agree with the moderates on Corbyn but I increasingly find it harder and harder to sympathise with them. They have handled things very badly since 2010, and I think a lot of their issues stem from that.
I also don’t think all these Tory and LD MPs/senior figures egging them on to leave Labour/backing them will help them get a hearing in Labour. If anything, it will be the opposite.
No one should be surprised about Corbyn re yesterday and the mural. He’s shown people what he’s about time and time again.
More importantly, you mark off a list like '(a.' not like 'a)'. What madness is this?
But yes, one could sympathise with people despondent at their leader for the first year or so, and lashing out, but it's not even that funny anymore to see.
Labour moderates will not do anything - they know that (a. they benefit from the Labour brand (b. that their centrism will not sweep them to power. For all his popularity once upon a time and his GE wins Blair is one of the most disliked figures in the country which I think in and of itself makes a statement about how popular a Blairite Labour platform would be.
I agree with the moderates on Corbyn but I increasingly find it harder and harder to sympathise with them. They have handled things very badly since 2010, and I think a lot of their issues stem from that.
I also don’t think all these Tory and LD MPs/senior figures egging them on to leave Labour/backing them will help them get a hearing in Labour. If anything, it will be the opposite.
No one should be surprised about Corbyn re yesterday and the mural. He’s shown people what he’s about time and time again.
More importantly, you mark of a list like '(a.' not like 'a)'. What madness is this?
I’m still half sleep and I’m sure PBers will forgive me for my sins.
I saw Ben Bradshaw on Sky News this morning. He refused to call out Corbyn for the antisemite he is. Utterly spineless.
Did he call out the lameness of Corbyn's statement? The 'I didn't know what I was commenting on' argument is pretty gosh darned weak (and not one I suspect parties would accept from their opponents), even if one believes entirely that Corbyn neither is an anti-semite nor succors them, intentionally or otherwise.
Labour moderates will not do anything - they know that (a. they benefit from the Labour brand (b. that their centrism will not sweep them to power. For all his popularity once upon a time and his GE wins Blair is one of the most disliked figures in the country which I think in and of itself makes a statement about how popular a Blairite Labour platform would be.
I agree with the moderates on Corbyn but I increasingly find it harder and harder to sympathise with them. They have handled things very badly since 2010, and I think a lot of their issues stem from that.
I also don’t think all these Tory and LD MPs/senior figures egging them on to leave Labour/backing them will help them get a hearing in Labour. If anything, it will be the opposite.
No one should be surprised about Corbyn re yesterday and the mural. He’s shown people what he’s about time and time again.
More importantly, you mark of a list like '(a.' not like 'a)'. What madness is this?
I’m still half sleep and I’m sure PBers will forgive me for my sins.
I saw Ben Bradshaw on Sky News this morning. He refused to call out Corbyn for the antisemite he is. Utterly spineless.
Did he call out the lameness of Corbyn's statement? The 'I didn't know what I was commenting on' argument is pretty gosh darned weak (and not one I suspect parties would accept from their opponents), even if one believes entirely that Corbyn neither is an anti-semite nor succors them, intentionally or otherwise.
The Jewish Chronicle piece referenced below does a pretty good demolition job on any cover Corbyn might have thought he had on this sorry episode.
Mr. kle4, then they're idiots. The far left and the far right are the enemies of all reasonable people.
Mr. Eagles, Rome was extremely well-organised. The arrogance point is legitimate, although the only commander in Italy to equal him was Quintus Fabius Maximus (Scipio beat him at Zama, of course, but did have substantial advantages in other areas).
Also, your Hitler comparison, beyond the obvious ridiculousness, is ineffably wrong. Hannibal was a brilliant leader of men. Hitler put himself in command of certain armed forces groups and tended to bugger things up. The less Hitler had to do with actual military decisions, the better the Nazis did. The less Hannibal had to do with decisions, the worse the Carthaginians did.
Anyway, I must be off for a little while, but I shall return to peruse the markets.
Mr. kle4, then they're idiots. The far left and the far right are the enemies of all reasonable people.
Mr. Eagles, Rome was extremely well-organised. The arrogance point is legitimate, although the only commander in Italy to equal him was Quintus Fabius Maximus (Scipio beat him at Zama, of course, but did have substantial advantages in other areas).
Also, your Hitler comparison, beyond the obvious ridiculousness, is ineffably wrong. Hannibal was a brilliant leader of men. Hitler put himself in command of certain armed forces groups and tended to bugger things up. The less Hitler had to do with actual military decisions, the better the Nazis did. The less Hannibal had to do with decisions, the worse the Carthaginians did.
Anyway, I must be off for a little while, but I shall return to peruse the markets.
Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:
1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party. 2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.
It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.
By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.
The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg
Four years is a long time in politics, but I can't see the Tories being slaughtered (they may still lose). Brexit is sufficiently popular, and Corbyn sufficiently unpopular, to shore up the Tory vote.
Tories are still traumatised by the huge shock of 1997.
But, it is unlikely to happen again because Corbyn isn’t all things to all men like Blair was, and there is a much starker cultural/values divide in politics today, rather than just an economic one.
I still think Brexit has the potential to be The Corn Laws Redux for the Tories.
Shame on those Tories preaching protectionism and economic nationalism.
You’d expect such nonsense from morons like Priti Patel.
I disagree with Priti Patel on the passport issue, but there was a rather good article in yesterday's Economist about why economic nationalism/protectionism has come back into vogue. In summary, the bracing rigour of international competition is something to be borne by the working/ lower middle classes, whereas those at the top benefit from any number of restrictive practices.
Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
The trouble with a 17 hour flight to Perth is - you arrive in Perth.
(I once went there simply for a short meeting, just to have a face-to-face shouting match with somebody. At least it worked - they stopped trying to invoice us for stuff that they had been told umpteen times we wouldn't be paying for.)
That sounds like a fun trip....
Arrived in Perth early one morning many years ago, and the Customs/Immigration people were ages dealing with a group of, IIRC, Italians, in front of us. I think they were planning to immigrate, or the officials thought they were. Anyway we were tired, we’d had a long flight from Singapore, where we’d been messed about by the taxi driver, who’d taken us a ‘quick route’. Anyway when we finally got to the front of the queue to immigation guy took one look at us and our passports and said. The exit door’s over there, mate, and there are taxis outside!
Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
It should be remembered that the PS were already down to about 10% (plus or minus a bit, depending on who the candidate was) when Macron launched his bid. It's a different business launching a new centrist party split off from the centre-left when Labour's polling top-side of 40%.
Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
It’s clear there will be a deal, and the EU really want one, but they also want to push the UK as close to the Norway position as possible. The question is how far May will move and if she can carry all the legislation and treaties through Parliament.
Personally, I think there will be a give and take fudge that gives just about everyone something to crow about.
Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
Maybe it’s okay if you’re in a hurry to get to Perth, but remember that you’re still 4-5 hours from Sydney or Melbourne once you’re there. Better to split your journey a little more equally with one of the traditional stops in the ME or Asia.
In another 14 years I predict most posters will be AI bots proving interesting facts, provocative arguments, trolling, and all the other stuff we do - with a few humans still left on the site getting psycho-therapeutic relief.
Lol. Many years ago when I was at MIT I was told that students in one working group used to skip lectures and just leave a tape recorder so they could catch up later. One day someone looked in and found the room entirely deserted, because the lecturer had left a tape recorder to deliver his talk as well. Probably apocryphal, but a nice image...
Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
The trouble with a 17 hour flight to Perth is - you arrive in Perth.
(I once went there simply for a short meeting, just to have a face-to-face shouting match with somebody. At least it worked - they stopped trying to invoice us for stuff that they had been told umpteen times we wouldn't be paying for.)
That sounds like a fun trip....
My other memory of Perth airport is of playing Scrabble with a colleague in the lounge - and putting all my 7 tiles down four times in the same game.
And there ended playing Scrabble with my colleague.
I know she suffered a lot of abuse which had racist elements during the GE, and probably for a long time, which is terrible and disgusting, but I really struggle to understand with Diane Abbott how she has lasted so long. McDonnell can come across as sensible and authoritative, Corbyn has a pleasant and even dignified manner, whatever one thinks of their personal politics, and it can get them out of difficult situations but Abbott finds herself in difficult situations like that link all the time, and she has never come across to me as very convincing in her explanations or manner. That clip ends fairly abruptly, but did she even address the discrepancy, in the clip she just ignored what is a fact?
But I must be off - time for what is probably a lame movie of a very good video game.
Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
It should be remembered that the PS were already down to about 10% (plus or minus a bit, depending on who the candidate was) when Macron launched his bid. It's a different business launching a new centrist party split off from the centre-left when Labour's polling top-side of 40%.
But, why is Labour at 40% when socialist parties have been decimated in France, Germany and elsewhere all over Europe?
I know people say “FPTP” but I never find that a satisfactory answer.
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
For people with blood or circulation problems it can be difficult: sitting in a cramped position for 7 hours, let alone 17, is painful and can (with DVTs etc) even be dangerous, as in lose-limbs dangerous. Add in the lower air pressure in flight cabins and it can be a genuine issue. The sooner Musk does a ballistic passenger vehicle that can do the trip in a hour the better.
I still think Brexit has the potential to be The Corn Laws Redux for the Tories.
Shame on those Tories preaching protectionism and economic nationalism.
You’d expect such nonsense from morons like Priti Patel.
I disagree with Priti Patel on the passport issue, but there was a rather good article in yesterday's Economist about why economic nationalism/protectionism has come back into vogue. In summary, the bracing rigour of international competition is something to be borne by the working/ lower middle classes, whereas those at the top benefit from any number of restrictive practices.
Correct, and that also has political effects of course.
Globalisation makes humanity as a whole materially better off, and reduces inequality between nations, but it also increases inequality within them.
On a democratic model, you’re never going to get a majority of the populace in developed nations to vote for that where the working/lower middle classes (who are far more numerous) are the ones taking the hit.
Calling them xenophobic and stupid is just going to piss them off.
I still think Brexit has the potential to be The Corn Laws Redux for the Tories.
Shame on those Tories preaching protectionism and economic nationalism.
You’d expect such nonsense from morons like Priti Patel.
There are uncanny parallels between Brexit and the Corn Laws, including Lord Liverpool who pretended to be in favour of free trade but was a out and out protectionist, and the strange alliance between reactionary capitalists and socialists in favour of protection.
Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
It should be remembered that the PS were already down to about 10% (plus or minus a bit, depending on who the candidate was) when Macron launched his bid. It's a different business launching a new centrist party split off from the centre-left when Labour's polling top-side of 40%.
But, why is Labour at 40% when socialist parties have been decimated in France, Germany and elsewhere all over Europe?
I know people say “FPTP” but I never find that a satisfactory answer.
I think it's quite a lot of the answer. Labour get the support of people who in other countries would vote Green or extreme Left.
Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
If they want to improve passenger comfort on planes for long flights then the pilots and airlines (and aviation designers) should avoid any form of turbulence at all costs.
If I feel the slightest bump on a flight, my hands start to sweat and I crap myself; I’m convinced i’m going to die. And it doesn’t help when they flash up the ominous ‘ping’ of the fasten your seatbelt sign.
I couldn’t care less if I have bread and water for 24 hours, and my legs are trapped in a vice. A smooth flight, please. Always.
Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
It should be remembered that the PS were already down to about 10% (plus or minus a bit, depending on who the candidate was) when Macron launched his bid. It's a different business launching a new centrist party split off from the centre-left when Labour's polling top-side of 40%.
But, why is Labour at 40% when socialist parties have been decimated in France, Germany and elsewhere all over Europe?
I know people say “FPTP” but I never find that a satisfactory answer.
I think it's quite a lot of the answer. Labour get the support of people who in other countries would vote Green or extreme Left.
But, socialism as a philosophy seems to have louder support and conviction here?
Perhaps it’s just the vocalness of its true believers in social and broadcast media.
How odd of God .... But seriously, I have never understood antisemitism. To be a bit racialist about it, Jews really do seem to be the chosen people in the world of academia. Just look, for example, at Wikipedia's list of Jewish economists, pretty much all of them top notch.
Are we supposed to be surprised? After all he lobbied to get an ISIS terrorist fund raiser out of prison for Christmas, which I am still shocked got hardly any attention.
Jeremy Corbyn will always support any regime, terrorist group or anti-Semitic artist that goes against the West. He will overlook any racism, homophobia, misogyny, killing of civilians or flouting of international law as necessary to those ends.
Labour MPs advocating a Labour government are supporting such a mentality being the core of UK foreign policy. They are putting partisanship and careerist self interest first.
I say this as someone that voted for Labour election after election. Sometimes principles should come first.
Mr. Richard, Marcellus was perhaps the first non-Cunctatory opponent to get somewhat to grips with Hannibal, mixing delaying strategy with typical Roman aggression. However, he was also killed by Hannibal.
Mr. Herdson, a fair point.
Mr. Royale, as well as FPTP, the SNP are geographically limited, the Lib Dems are still suffering the Coalition hangover (and have a lacklustre Cable for leader) and UKIP has just about eaten its own face. So, voters largely have just two options, plus Corbyn's a huge anchor for support for both parties.
A new left wing but not far left party of soft, pro-EU centrists could do very well. But it won't happen.
We can split the question of whether Brexit resolves anything into two further questions. What does Brexit success look like and how likely are we to achieve it?
My best estimate is that Brexit success looks almost identical to Remain in practical effects. We continue to trade with both the EU and the rest of the world on the same terms and we remain closely connected with the EU and its member states. My estimation is the EU would allow a near enough approximation to the status quo on a rule taking basis. Given how fed up people will be with Brexit, I guess being a client state of the EU will be acceptable for a while but we will chafe against that status before long. Divergence from the status quo will look like failure to too many people IMO, but bear in mind divergence is government policy. SM+CU+CAP is by no means a slam dunk.
F1: riddle me this: why in the Ladbrokes race match bets is Hulkenberg 2.5 to beat Sainz? He outqualified him (by a tiny margin) and starts two places ahead due to Ricciardo's penalty. They're very even, but it just seems a bit weird that the chap starting two places ahead is odds against.
Edited extra bit: there's also group betting (group in which the four Renault and Haas drivers form one group. Sainz starts last but is the favourite. Have I missed something?
David, I fear you are struggling under the misapprehension that Corbyn is interested in winning a General Election on anything other than his own terms And those terms, which he shares with Momentum, are not in line with the views of the majority of Labour supporters. But he'd rather lose than compromise his ideological purity. He'll succeed
How odd of God .... But seriously, I have never understood antisemitism. To be a bit racialist about it, Jews really do seem to be the chosen people in the world of academia. Just look, for example, at Wikipedia's list of Jewish economists, pretty much all of them top notch.
It’s not racist to observe that many top economists are Jewish It’s not racist to observe that many sex offenders in an area are Bangladeshi Muslims*
It is racist to point at a Jew and say that they are probably a top economist and treat them accordingly without further evidence. It is racist to point at a Bangladeshi Muslim and say they are probably a sex offender and treat them accordingly without further evidence.
* indeed, intelligence led policing should have been doing this as a matter of course.
David, I fear you are struggling under the misapprehension that Corbyn is interested in winning a General Election on anything other than his own terms And those terms, which he shares with Momentum, are not in line with the views of the majority of Labour supporters. But he'd rather lose than compromise his ideological purity. He'll succeed
He's become more flexible in the last year. He's becoming a normal politician.(in truth he always was, he'd just been a backbencher for a long time, and he was able to rally thexmembership)
David, I fear you are struggling under the misapprehension that Corbyn is interested in winning a General Election on anything other than his own terms And those terms, which he shares with Momentum, are not in line with the views of the majority of Labour supporters. But he'd rather lose than compromise his ideological purity. He'll succeed
He's become more flexible in the last year. He's becoming a normal politician.(in truth he always was, he'd just been a backbencher for a long time, and he was able to rally thexmembership)
I did not see all those free seats on the train....I did not see all those anti-semitic posts in the Facebook group I was a member of...I did not see the mural was...
Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
It should be remembered that the PS were already down to about 10% (plus or minus a bit, depending on who the candidate was) when Macron launched his bid. It's a different business launching a new centrist party split off from the centre-left when Labour's polling top-side of 40%.
But, why is Labour at 40% when socialist parties have been decimated in France, Germany and elsewhere all over Europe?
I know people say “FPTP” but I never find that a satisfactory answer.
But it is largely true. The *overall* left-of-centre vote in France and Germany wasn't too shabby but a lot has drifted from social Democrats to the more radical left. Indeed, far from being an exception, arguably, the capture of Labour by Corbyn and his Allies is completely in line with that trend.
Labour also benefits - for now - from the unusual weakness of the Lib Dems and new parties.
I think this is significant. The fig leaf that was Corbyn's equivocation has gone once and for all. Smith smoked him out. We could be witnessing the first flap of the butterly....
I think this is a big moment for labour and Brexit. Corbyn clearly needs Brexit for his policies and he will not prejeudice this once in a lifetime opportunity to leave the EU.
It is said there are 80 or so labour mps who are committed remain supporters and if they want to have any effect on Brexit they need to be courageous and resign the whip and form their own group and invite other mps to join them.
My wife and I agree that we need to leave the EU but we need a close relationship with Europe probably defined as Associate Membership, and would expect that in due course and time the UK could rejoin the EU but only if it has not become a United States of Europe and respects the democracy of individual member states. (Also that Junckers is long gone and forever remembered as the person who lost the UK to Europe)
Juncker has a place in history. Just like Lord North.
I think this is significant. The fig leaf that was Corbyn's equivocation has gone once and for all. Smith smoked him out. We could be witnessing the first flap of the butterly....
I think this is a big moment for labour and Brexit. Corbyn clearly needs Brexit for his policies and he will not prejeudice this once in a lifetime opportunity to leave the EU.
It is said there are 80 or so labour mps who are committed remain supporters and if they want to have any effect on Brexit they need to be courageous and resign the whip and form their own group and invite other mps to join them.
My wife and I agree that we need to leave the EU but we need a close relationship with Europe probably defined as Associate Membership, and would expect that in due course and time the UK could rejoin the EU but only if it has not become a United States of Europe and respects the democracy of individual member states. (Also that Junckers is long gone and forever remembered as the person who lost the UK to Europe)
Juncker has a place in history. Just like Lord North.
Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
It should be remembered that the PS were already down to about 10% (plus or minus a bit, depending on who the candidate was) when Macron launched his bid. It's a different business launching a new centrist party split off from the centre-left when Labour's polling top-side of 40%.
But, why is Labour at 40% when socialist parties have been decimated in France, Germany and elsewhere all over Europe?
I know people say “FPTP” but I never find that a satisfactory answer.
But it is largely true. The *overall* left-of-centre vote in France and Germany wasn't too shabby but a lot has drifted from social Democrats to the more radical left. Indeed, far from being an exception, arguably, the capture of Labour by Corbyn and his Allies is completely in line with that trend.
Labour also benefits - for now - from the unusual weakness of the Lib Dems and new parties.
Hmm. Still not convinced.
Corbyn is a very left-wing politician and hugely polarising. He shouldn’t be on anything like 40% really, even under FPTP.
Felix was out last night.So have not read the thread.However would be surprised as alleged that Foxy and BJO had made anti semetic comments.
If anyone accused me of making Anti Semitic remarks they are wrong and I would like them to point to which post they are referring. I abhor all forms of racism including anti Semitism.
These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.
1. What you say may excuse how some Paleot justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.
2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.
3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.
4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopoliundinining the stateradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (whicolonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.
It disgraces Labour.
I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.
It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much
Foxy and BJO, especially the latter were pretty explicit last night. The lack of moral compass was both stark and sad.
What the hell are you talking about. Show me the posts to which you refer.
David, I fear you are struggling under the misapprehension that Corbyn is interested in winning a General Election on anything other than his own terms And those terms, which he shares with Momentum, are not in line with the views of the majority of Labour supporters. But he'd rather lose than compromise his ideological purity. He'll succeed
He's become more flexible in the last year. He's becoming a normal politician.(in truth he always was, he'd just been a backbencher for a long time, and he was able to rally thexmembership)
No, he's not. Normal politicians aren't apologists for anti-semites and holocaust deniers.
Mr. Richard, Marcellus was perhaps the first non-Cunctatory opponent to get somewhat to grips with Hannibal, mixing delaying strategy with typical Roman aggression. However, he was also killed by Hannibal.
Mr. Herdson, a fair point.
Mr. Royale, as well as FPTP, the SNP are geographically limited, the Lib Dems are still suffering the Coalition hangover (and have a lacklustre Cable for leader) and UKIP has just about eaten its own face. So, voters largely have just two options, plus Corbyn's a huge anchor for support for both parties.
A new left wing but not far left party of soft, pro-EU centrists could do very well. But it won't happen.
Marcellus was killed in a cavalry skirmish with Hannibal nowhere in the area.
Aside from his reconquest of Sicily he engaged Hannibal five times and improved Rome's strategic position on each occasion.
Mr. Richard, he was a capable chap, and it's a shame that his orders regarding Archimedes weren't followed, but for a consul to get caught out scouting with insufficient protection is a failure of judgement.
David, I fear you are struggling under the misapprehension that Corbyn is interested in winning a General Election on anything other than his own terms And those terms, which he shares with Momentum, are not in line with the views of the majority of Labour supporters. But he'd rather lose than compromise his ideological purity. He'll succeed
He's become more flexible in the last year. He's becoming a normal politician.(in truth he always was, he'd just been a backbencher for a long time, and he was able to rally thexmembership)
No, he's not. Normal politicians aren't apologists for anti-semites and holocaust deniers.
David, I fear you are struggling under the misapprehension that Corbyn is interested in winning a General Election on anything other than his own terms And those terms, which he shares with Momentum, are not in line with the views of the majority of Labour supporters. But he'd rather lose than compromise his ideological purity. He'll succeed
He's become more flexible in the last year. He's becoming a normal politician.(in truth he always was, he'd just been a backbencher for a long time, and he was able to rally thexmembership)
No, he's not. Normal politicians aren't apologists for anti-semites and holocaust deniers.
I remember when borrowing a horse, allegedly taking drugs 20 years ago and eating a posh burger was what normal politicians did that was cause for concern...
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
1. What you say may excuse how some Palestinians feel but it does not justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.
2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.
3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.
4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopolitan and somehow undemining the state. This tradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (which also conveniently includes a wrong-headed anti-colonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.
It disgraces Labour.
I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.
It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.
1. Agreed 2 True, I am not picking a side. 3. Not really persuaded of that. 4. I think that is also true and is more inexcusable than Palestinian hatred.
Corbyn seems to me not to be anti-Semitic. He is stupid, naive, morally blind and ignorant, all good reasons not to vote for him. Maybe that is enough.
Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
It should be remembered that the PS were already down to about 10% (plus or minus a bit, depending on who the candidate was) when Macron launched his bid. It's a different business launching a new centrist party split off from the centre-left when Labour's polling top-side of 40%.
But, why is Labour at 40% when socialist parties have been decimated in France, Germany and elsewhere all over Europe?
I know people say “FPTP” but I never find that a satisfactory answer.
Corbyn Labour offered hope to people otherwise disengaged with politics with different thinking on student debt and housing and the whole 'fairness' agenda.
I don't think there's any chance that a Labour party led by Yvette Cooper or Angela Eagle of Owen Smith would be at 40%.
Felix was out last night.So have not read the thread.However would be surprised as alleged that Foxy and BJO had made anti semetic comments.
If anyone accused me of making Anti Semitic remarks they are wrong and I would like them to point to which post they are referring. I abhor all forms of racism including anti Semitism.
On topic - recent events have made large-scale (dozens) of deselection attempts more likely before the next GE. There’ll be a rule change soon making them more likely. It will be intetesting to see how many attempts are actually successful.
Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:
1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party. 2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.
It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.
By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.
The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg
I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.
If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?
Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
Yep, Labour just needs to be a tad less Brexit than the Tories, so that the blame for its consequences sticks where it belongs. Smith has gone off piste, for presumably personal reasons, hence the slapdown.
Herdson is a little complacent about the extent of remain sympathy within the more sensible Tory MPs. Most of them are keeping their heads down, but if Brexit starts heading the country toward the rocks, his Conservative peace may prove rather fragile.
Felix was out last night.So have not read the thread.However would be surprised as alleged that Foxy and BJO had made anti semetic comments.
If anyone accused me of making Anti Semitic remarks they are wrong and I would like them to point to which post they are referring. I abhor all forms of racism including anti Semitism.
I still think Brexit has the potential to be The Corn Laws Redux for the Tories.
Shame on those Tories preaching protectionism and economic nationalism.
You’d expect such nonsense from morons like Priti Patel.
I disagree with Priti Patel on the passport issue, but there was a rather good article in yesterday's Economist about why economic nationalism/protectionism has come back into vogue. In summary, the bracing rigour of international competition is something to be borne by the working/ lower middle classes, whereas those at the top benefit from any number of restrictive practices.
Globalisation is used as an excuse to give the 1% a pay rise and the rest a pay cut or freeze.
Likewise the negative social effects of immigration are borne predominantly by those lower down the socioeconomic scale.
Saudi Arabia opened its airspace for the first time to a commercial flight to Israel on Thursday with an Air India route flying non-stop between New Delhi and Tel Aviv - a sign of a behind-the-scenes improvement in ties between the Arab kingdom and the Jewish state.
The Air India 139 flight landed at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport after 7-1/2 hours and flew over Saudi for around three hours, marking a diplomatic shift for Riyadh that Israel says was fuelled by shared concern over Iranian influence in the region.
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
Cyclefree said she was sickened by posters on here waving ant semitism away.It sickens me she makes the accusation without in my knowledge any thing to back it up.Also people sit on their hands and never caller her out.
I think this is significant. The fig leaf that was Corbyn's equivocation has gone once and for all. Smith smoked him out. We could be witnessing the first flap of the butterly....
I think this is a big moment for labour and Brexit. Corbyn clearly needs Brexit for his policies and he will not prejeudice this once in a lifetime opportunity to leave the EU.
It is said there are 80 or so labour mps who are committed remain supporters and if they want to have any effect on Brexit they need to be courageous and resign the whip and form their own group and invite other mps to join them.
My wife and I agree that we need to leave the EU but we need a close relationship with Europe probably defined as Associate Membership, and would expect that in due course and time the UK could rejoin the EU but only if it has not become a United States of Europe and respects the democracy of individual member states. (Also that Junckers is long gone and forever remembered as the person who lost the UK to Europe)
Juncker has a place in history. Just like Lord North.
Mr. Richard, he was a capable chap, and it's a shame that his orders regarding Archimedes weren't followed, but for a consul to get caught out scouting with insufficient protection is a failure of judgement.
It was a common activity as indeed was taking part in actual fighting - all the great commanders in ancient times would have done it.
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
I am glad you say you didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. Think we will have to agree to disagree regarding Jeremy Corbyn.
Jeremy Corbyn has called out Anti Semitism on numerous occasions has supported and even sponsored numerous EDMs condemning Anti Semitism.
I am now going to be canvassing for Labour for the next few weeks hopefully making a few gains. So wont be on here till early May.
Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:
1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party. 2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.
It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.
By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.
The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg
I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.
If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?
Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
Yep, Labour just needs to be a tad less Brexit than the Tories, so that the blame for its consequences sticks where it belongs. Smith has gone off piste, for presumably personal reasons, hence the slapdown.
Herdson is a little complacent about the extent of remain sympathy within the more sensible Tory MPs. Most of them are keeping their heads down, but if Brexit starts heading the country toward the rocks, his Conservative peace may prove rather fragile.
Support for Brexit is now at a very high level among Conservative voters. Being the party of Brexit won't harm them, among those who are inclined to vote for them
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
I am glad you say you didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. Think we will have to agree to disagree regarding Jeremy Corbyn.
Jeremy Corbyn has called out Anti Semitism on numerous occasions has supported and even sponsored numerous EDMs condemning Anti Semitism.
I am now going to be canvassing for Labour for the next few weeks hopefully making a few gains. So wont be on here till early May.
My other memory of Perth airport is of playing Scrabble with a colleague in the lounge - and putting all my 7 tiles down four times in the same game.
And there ended playing Scrabble with my colleague.
Four bingoes in a two-handed game is actually not unreasonable. Any player with sound fundamentals and a strategy that looks more than one move ahead should be aiming for a bingo roughly every 3-4 moves, only deviating from this if other high-scoring opportunities present themselves.
This is possible without a superhuman lexicon, which is more useful for getting rid of bad tiles and rack balancing than playing obscure bingoes.
Lots of uncertainties but I think there are two certainties:
1. The Labour Party will not split. Nor will the Tory party. 2. Mrs May will not call a snap election no matter what her lead is in the polls.
It is also highly unlikely that any Tory MPs will not support the Tory Government in a vote of no confidence so the next election is almost certainly going to be in 2022.
By then we will have left the EU and most people will be exhausted and fed up with the whole subject. Although the UK will be in a poor economic position with continuing pressure on public services and little money to pay for them, there will be zero energy to re-open the EU question and it will not feature in any Party manifesto, not even the Lib-Dems.
The Tories will carry the blame for Brexit. It will be yet another item on the long list for voting against the Tories. They will get slaughtered in 2022 no matter who their leader is, and uber-slaughtered if their leader is the current favourite - Jacob Rees-Mogg
I happen to agree the tories are very likely to lose the next GE no matter what, but how much labour in effect back the final deal may be relevant to say ld chances - the Gov will take the brunt of any anger at a poor deal or bad impact, but labour might catch a bit of it.
I don't see Labour backing the final deal no matter what it is. They won't want to share the blame.
If the Gov caves in on the CU (and they might because of the numbers) then Labour will move to include the single market. If the Gov caves in on the SM (unlikely) then Labour will say BINO - why leave?
Brexit is stuck on the Tory shoe and they can't scrape it off.
Yep, Labour just needs to be a tad less Brexit than the Tories, so that the blame for its consequences sticks where it belongs. Smith has gone off piste, for presumably personal reasons, hence the slapdown.
Herdson is a little complacent about the extent of remain sympathy within the more sensible Tory MPs. Most of them are keeping their heads down, but if Brexit starts heading the country toward the rocks, his Conservative peace may prove rather fragile.
Support for Brexit is now at a very high level among Conservative voters. Being the party of Brexit won't harm them, among those who are inclined to vote for them
The Labour Party has painted itself into a corner over Brexit. It has become the Brexit-but-in-a-different-way party.
My other memory of Perth airport is of playing Scrabble with a colleague in the lounge - and putting all my 7 tiles down four times in the same game.
And there ended playing Scrabble with my colleague.
Four bingoes in a two-handed game is actually not unreasonable. Any player with sound fundamentals and a strategy that looks more than one move ahead should be aiming for a bingo roughly every 3-4 moves, only deviating from this if other high-scoring opportunities present themselves.
This is possible without a superhuman lexicon, which is more useful for getting rid of bad tiles and rack balancing than playing obscure bingoes.
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
I am glad you say you didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. Think we will have to agree to disagree regarding Jeremy Corbyn.
Jeremy Corbyn has called out Anti Semitism on numerous occasions has supported and even sponsored numerous EDMs condemning Anti Semitism.
I am now going to be canvassing for Labour for the next few weeks hopefully making a few gains. So wont be on here till early May.
Unless something dramatic happens!!
But BJO, there are so many undecided voters to be won over on here.
Mr. Richard, no reason both can't be true. Your namesake, the Lionheart, was unlucky to be hit by a lucky (and long) shot. But nobody made him stand too near the walls.
What with Thomas Borwick (CTO of Vote Leave) coming up in the news, I ended up reading the Wiki article about his mother, Victoria Borwick, who was the Tory MP for Kensington from 2015 until - famously - 2017, when Emma Dent Coad snatched the seat for Labour by 20 votes. What I didn't realise what the she had played a role in the ivory trade flip-flop that got a fair bit of negative publicity, particularly on social media, in the run-up to the snap election.
The British press reported in the run-up to the election that Borwick, being acquainted with the incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May, was influential in the decision to remove from the Conservative manifesto the party's previous pledge of a total ban on ivory trading.[41][42] Borwick, who also serves as President of the British Antique Dealers' Association, told the House of Commons in 2016 "any ban on antique ivory is cultural vandalism".
That was one of the little clumsy tone-deaf PR fails that may well have cost the Tories a couple of seats, on top of the ones they lost for bigger-picture reasons like their lack of attractive retail offer, the loss of some remainers and failure to convert Red Kippers, and the debates debacle. But if it did cost the Tories any seats, that would have included Borwick's - who already faced difficulties as an arch-Brexiteer in a corner of remainerdom.
Banning the sale of antique ivory did strike me as a wrong-headed and illiberal policy that might look good superficially despite having to no causal connection to its supposed objective - though I suppose it is one of those things that will end up being done eventually by some government or another and never likely to be overturned by their successors. But what an example of being "right yet wrong".
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
Cyclefree said she was sickened by posters on here waving ant semitism away.It sickens me she makes the accusation without in my knowledge any thing to back it up.Also people sit on their hands and never caller her out.
I wasn’t on last night but I have been reading and enjoying the contributions of Foxy and BJO for years. It would be totally inconsistent with that experience.
In another 14 years I predict most posters will be AI bots proving interesting facts, provocative arguments, trolling, and all the other stuff we do - with a few humans still left on the site getting psycho-therapeutic relief.
Lol. Many years ago when I was at MIT I was told that students in one working group used to skip lectures and just leave a tape recorder so they could catch up later. One day someone looked in and found the room entirely deserted, because the lecturer had left a tape recorder to deliver his talk as well. Probably apocryphal, but a nice image...
I suspect there may be one or two AI bots already among us.
Labour has no moral authority on Brexit. It is all over the shop.
The Lib Dems do have some moral authority on Brexit; if you want somebody to fight fiercely for Remain then in most of England at least the choice is clear. But it doesn't seem to be doing them too many favours in the polls. (It also means that Brexit-supporters like me, who have at times voted for them, won't be voting for them for the foreseeable future. Possibly ever, if Remainism completely permeates the party culture and they become the Party of Rejoin.)
On the basis that Remain Revivalism isn't actually perking the Lib Dems up, I think Labour's vagueness might be a sensible strategy. I suspect the key challenge is to provide united-looking and principled vagueness, the former perhaps being more important than the other. Spouting clearly contradictory policies is a minus. Being clearly opportunistic is also a minus but voters seem willing to forgive opportunism more than disorganisation and disunity.
They will have likely done enough if they can establish a line in which they would have done Brexit somehow differently and somehow better in a way that the vast majority of voters do not actually have the technical knowledge to comprehend beyond "what went wrong is the Tories' fault, they own it". Will more serious, hardcore Remain/super-soft Brexit types like that? Probably not, but who else are they going to vote for? The Tories? The Lib Dems? In sufficient numbers to matter?
These people are not holocaust deniers in the way that neo-Nazis are, seeking to excuse Hitler's appalling policies. They have no interest in Hitler or Nazism. They are people who claim (wrongly of course) that this has all been exaggerated and in any event does not excuse what Israel is doing now. As I said in my post on the previous thread I think this is a bit more complicated than simple accusations make it seem.
A few points: -
1. What you say may excuse how some Palestinians feel but it does not justify a British politician who claims anti-racism as one of his key principles giving succour, support and associating with Holocaust deniers. We would not support the BNP if they suddenly claimed to be doing it for love of the Palestinians. A fortiori for Labour.
2. Palestinians themselves have been guilty of some pretty atrocious acts of violence against innocents and this is explicitly supported by their leaders. Neither side is innocent.
3. Much of the anti-Jewish materiel found in some of these groups and in Islamist propaganda does derive from Nazi propaganda and, specifically, from Nazi propaganda targeted at the Arab world. Paul Berman’s books spell it out in depressing detail. A cursory glance at Arab history in the 1930’s and 1940’s will show that some did have quite a bit of support for Hitler and Nazism.
4. As SO has rightly pointed out, quite a lot of the anti-Jewish feeling on the far Left derives from Soviet memes and from an older and more traditional anti-Jewish meme of Jews being in love with money, capitalist, bankers, usurers, cosmopolitan and somehow undemining the state. This tradition has combined with an anti-Israel meme (which also conveniently includes a wrong-headed anti-colonialist - Israel was established by the UN not by an Empire - and anti-American meme) into the toxic brew we have today.
It disgraces Labour.
I will never vote for a party led by a man who sees nothing wrong with associating with Holocaust deniers or inviting them to Parliament. It is, for me, a matter of conscience. My father was one of the doctors who had to go into Belsen. What he saw there sickened him. It was one of the few things he told me about his war experiences. I have friends whose parents either fled or survived the Holocaust. My mother’s family, despite being Catholic, were racially Jewish enough for the purpose of the laws in force that they had to hide in Italy during the war.
It sickens me to read posters here seeking to wave away anti-semitism as something of minor importance because of the need to win an election, because Tories are apparently so much more evil than the sorts of people who deny facts and justify murderous genocidal hatred.
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
Cyclefree said she was sickened by posters on here waving ant semitism away.It sickens me she makes the accusation without in my knowledge any thing to back it up.Also people sit on their hands and never caller her out.
I wasn’t on last night but I have been reading and enjoying the contributions of Foxy and BJO for years. It would be totally inconsistent with that experience.
+1
What ever our differences, I have never seen anything from either that suggests either are other than decent people with different points of view...
I think the BBC may want to consider whether all 'Surrey Teenagers' deserved to be so labeled...
Police said Hassan, from Surrey, appeared to be co-operating with government deradicalisation programme Prevent at the time of the attack. But the BBC has been told the Iraqi asylum
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
Cyclefree said she was sickened by posters on here waving ant semitism away.It sickens me she makes the accusation without in my knowledge any thing to back it up.Also people sit on their hands and never caller her out.
I wasn’t on last night but I have been reading and enjoying the contributions of Foxy and BJO for years. It would be totally inconsistent with that experience.
Very reasonable article as usual from David, but I'm not sure that any of us can really predict either the EU deal (if there is one, as I expect) or how voters in any party will react to it. I think most will just want to move on and vote about something else, but I might well be wrong.
On a peaceful subject as the last few threads have been a bit intense, what do we make of this?
It sounds fine to me and I'd expect to have no problem passing the time for 17 hours (I've had several 12-hour flights in tourist class) - I definitely don't want to be wired up to test my posture or any such nonsense (I incidentally dislike those chairs with ridges to make you sit in an anatomically correct position - I'll sit how I like, thanks). A litte extra leg room would be nice, but otherwise No Big Deal. I remember frequent traveller SeanT feeling very differenly. Do most people have a problem with long flights?
If they want to improve passenger comfort on planes for long flights then the pilots and airlines (and aviation designers) should avoid any form of turbulence at all costs.
If I feel the slightest bump on a flight, my hands start to sweat and I crap myself; I’m convinced i’m going to die. And it doesn’t help when they flash up the ominous ‘ping’ of the fasten your seatbelt sign.
I couldn’t care less if I have bread and water for 24 hours, and my legs are trapped in a vice. A smooth flight, please. Always.
Larger aircraft are less susceptible to turbulence, so I suggest you stick to A380s!
Labour has no moral authority on Brexit. It is all over the shop.
The Lib Dems do have some moral authority on Brexit; if you want somebody to fight fiercely for Remain then in most of England at least the choice is clear. But it doesn't seem to be doing them too many favours in the polls. (It also means that Brexit-supporters like me, who have at times voted for them, won't be voting for them for the foreseeable future. Possibly ever, if Remainism completely permeates the party culture and they become the Party of Rejoin.)
On the basis that Remain Revivalism isn't actually perking the Lib Dems up, I think Labour's vagueness might be a sensible strategy. I suspect the key challenge is to provide united-looking and principled vagueness, the former perhaps being more important than the other. Spouting clearly contradictory policies is a minus. Being clearly opportunistic is also a minus but voters seem willing to forgive opportunism more than disorganisation and disunity.
They will have likely done enough if they can establish a line in which they would have done Brexit somehow differently and somehow better in a way that the vast majority of voters do not actually have the technical knowledge to comprehend beyond "what went wrong is the Tories' fault, they own it". Will more serious, hardcore Remain/super-soft Brexit types like that? Probably not, but who else are they going to vote for? The Tories? The Lib Dems? In sufficient numbers to matter?
The LibDem approach took them off the field of battle on Brexit, unless they got really lucky and some circumstances made Brexit impossible to deliver. But that was always a very long shot. 86%+ of votes in June 2017 were cast for parties pledging to implement Brexit, in some (vague) form or other. The LibDems were on the wrong side of an instruction from the voters. Telling the voters "we know best - go away and rethink" is never a wise move.
What appears to be worse is that the LibDems don't seem to have been using the time to come up with any sort of alternative offering to the voters, once Brexit is done and dusted. A duff leader isn't helping. But that all feeds into the problems they aren't addressing.
I also think that the voters know Theresa May got herself a hospital pass when Cameron also took himself off the Brexit field of battle (although she didn't HAVE to put herself forward....). As long as we get out of the EU, no longer have MEPs, no longer have to take instruction from Brussels as to who must be allowed into our borders - and don't crash the economy in the process - then I suspect a significant majority of voters will shrug and think "well, that could have gone a lot worse...." and give her some degree of credit for threading a way through.
Saudi Arabia opened its airspace for the first time to a commercial flight to Israel on Thursday with an Air India route flying non-stop between New Delhi and Tel Aviv - a sign of a behind-the-scenes improvement in ties between the Arab kingdom and the Jewish state.
The Air India 139 flight landed at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport after 7-1/2 hours and flew over Saudi for around three hours, marking a diplomatic shift for Riyadh that Israel says was fuelled by shared concern over Iranian influence in the region.
Strange times. I flew out of Doha recently on Qatar Airlines and we were not allowed to fly over Saudi Arabia or Oman. We had to fly in Iranian airspace.
I didn’t see any anti-Semitic comments on PB last night. If I had I would have called them out, believe me. Not everyone on the left is like Jeremy Corbyn!!
Cyclefree said she was sickened by posters on here waving ant semitism away.It sickens me she makes the accusation without in my knowledge any thing to back it up.Also people sit on their hands and never caller her out.
I wasn’t on last night but I have been reading and enjoying the contributions of Foxy and BJO for years. It would be totally inconsistent with that experience.
+1
What ever our differences, I have never seen anything from either that suggests either are other than decent people with different points of view...
Well, there is the Leicester City thing, but apart from that, yes.
Mr. Simon, indeed. If the unions see their influence lost to the likes of Momentum, I wonder if they'd support such a move.
However, Labour types still seem strangely affectionate towards what amounts to a brand. And they also seem keener to remember the distant memory, in relative terms, of the SDP rather than more recent examples like UKIP* and En Marche.
*Yes, UKIP were rubbish in the traditional sense of winning elections, but they did achieve their ultimate political goal and show a new party can break through. And a new party could have dozens of MPs already.
It should be remembered that the PS were already down to about 10% (plus or minus a bit, depending on who the candidate was) when Macron launched his bid. It's a different business launching a new centrist party split off from the centre-left when Labour's polling top-side of 40%.
But, why is Labour at 40% when socialist parties have been decimated in France, Germany and elsewhere all over Europe?
I know people say “FPTP” but I never find that a satisfactory answer.
But it is largely true. The *overall* left-of-centre vote in France and Germany wasn't too shabby but a lot has drifted from social Democrats to the more radical left. Indeed, far from being an exception, arguably, the capture of Labour by Corbyn and his Allies is completely in line with that trend.
Labour also benefits - for now - from the unusual weakness of the Lib Dems and new parties.
Hmm. Still not convinced.
Corbyn is a very left-wing politician and hugely polarising. He shouldn’t be on anything like 40% really, even under FPTP.
I think that's why Labour are doing to well. Look across Europe, the radical left are winning while the middle of the road left are getting badly beaten.
People on the left want something different just as people on the right wanted something different for so many years leading up to the referendum vote.
Saudi Arabia opened its airspace for the first time to a commercial flight to Israel on Thursday with an Air India route flying non-stop between New Delhi and Tel Aviv - a sign of a behind-the-scenes improvement in ties between the Arab kingdom and the Jewish state.
The Air India 139 flight landed at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport after 7-1/2 hours and flew over Saudi for around three hours, marking a diplomatic shift for Riyadh that Israel says was fuelled by shared concern over Iranian influence in the region.
Strange times. I flew out of Doha recently on Qatar Airlines and we were not allowed to fly over Saudi Arabia or Oman. We had to fly in Iranian airspace.
YEs, Qatar has upset most of her neighbours. Qatari money is funding the Iranian jihadis and supporting the rebels in the Yemeni civil war.
I think the BBC may want to consider whether all 'Surrey Teenagers' deserved to be so labeled...
Police said Hassan, from Surrey, appeared to be co-operating with government deradicalisation programme Prevent at the time of the attack. But the BBC has been told the Iraqi asylum
Perhaps they meant lives in Surrey. Where you are from and where you live - perhaps temporarily - are two different things. Just an ordinary Surrey teenager?!
One thing which might mess with your Raikkonen FLAP bet... one or other (or both) of the Bulls will try to one stop, and if that doesn't work out, will be doing the last few laps of the race on fresh tyres. Bottas, given he's so far out of position, might end up in a similar situation. FLAP is often about wh o had the freshest tyres and nothing to lose at the end of the race. That's probably not Raikkonen this time around.
In another 14 years I predict most posters will be AI bots proving interesting facts, provocative arguments, trolling, and all the other stuff we do - with a few humans still left on the site getting psycho-therapeutic relief.
Lol. Many years ago when I was at MIT I was told that students in one working group used to skip lectures and just leave a tape recorder so they could catch up later. One day someone looked in and found the room entirely deserted, because the lecturer had left a tape recorder to deliver his talk as well. Probably apocryphal, but a nice image...
I suspect there may be one or two AI bots already among us.
Comments
I agree with the enjoying life sentiment; if you allow your state of mind to be determined by political outcomes, then you're bound to spend a significant part of your life miserable or depressed.
(I once went there simply for a short meeting, just to have a face-to-face shouting match with somebody. At least it worked - they stopped trying to invoice us for stuff that they had been told umpteen times we wouldn't be paying for.)
I agree with the moderates on Corbyn but I increasingly find it harder and harder to sympathise with them. They have handled things very badly since 2010, and I think a lot of their issues stem from that.
I also don’t think all these Tory and LD MPs/senior figures egging them on to leave Labour/backing them will help them get a hearing in Labour. If anything, it will be the opposite.
No one should be surprised about Corbyn re yesterday and the mural. He’s shown people what he’s about time and time again.
But yes, one could sympathise with people despondent at their leader for the first year or so, and lashing out, but it's not even that funny anymore to see.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Claudius_Marcellus
But, it is unlikely to happen again because Corbyn isn’t all things to all men like Blair was, and there is a much starker cultural/values divide in politics today, rather than just an economic one.
Anyway when we finally got to the front of the queue to immigation guy took one look at us and our passports and said. The exit door’s over there, mate, and there are taxis outside!
Had a soft spot for the place ever since.
Personally, I think there will be a give and take fudge that gives just about everyone something to crow about.
And there ended playing Scrabble with my colleague.
But I must be off - time for what is probably a lame movie of a very good video game.
I know people say “FPTP” but I never find that a satisfactory answer.
Globalisation makes humanity as a whole materially better off, and reduces inequality between nations, but it also increases inequality within them.
On a democratic model, you’re never going to get a majority of the populace in developed nations to vote for that where the working/lower middle classes (who are far more numerous) are the ones taking the hit.
Calling them xenophobic and stupid is just going to piss them off.
If I feel the slightest bump on a flight, my hands start to sweat and I crap myself; I’m convinced i’m going to die. And it doesn’t help when they flash up the ominous ‘ping’ of the fasten your seatbelt sign.
I couldn’t care less if I have bread and water for 24 hours, and my legs are trapped in a vice. A smooth flight, please. Always.
Perhaps it’s just the vocalness of its true believers in social and broadcast media.
But seriously, I have never understood antisemitism. To be a bit racialist about it, Jews really do seem to be the chosen people in the world of academia. Just look, for example, at Wikipedia's list of Jewish economists, pretty much all of them top notch.
Labour MPs advocating a Labour government are supporting such a mentality being the core of UK foreign policy. They are putting partisanship and careerist self interest first.
I say this as someone that voted for Labour election after election. Sometimes principles should come first.
Mr. Herdson, a fair point.
Mr. Royale, as well as FPTP, the SNP are geographically limited, the Lib Dems are still suffering the Coalition hangover (and have a lacklustre Cable for leader) and UKIP has just about eaten its own face. So, voters largely have just two options, plus Corbyn's a huge anchor for support for both parties.
A new left wing but not far left party of soft, pro-EU centrists could do very well. But it won't happen.
My best estimate is that Brexit success looks almost identical to Remain in practical effects. We continue to trade with both the EU and the rest of the world on the same terms and we remain closely connected with the EU and its member states. My estimation is the EU would allow a near enough approximation to the status quo on a rule taking basis. Given how fed up people will be with Brexit, I guess being a client state of the EU will be acceptable for a while but we will chafe against that status before long. Divergence from the status quo will look like failure to too many people IMO, but bear in mind divergence is government policy. SM+CU+CAP is by no means a slam dunk.
Edited extra bit: there's also group betting (group
It’s not racist to observe that many sex offenders in an area are Bangladeshi Muslims*
It is racist to point at a Jew and say that they are probably a top economist and treat them accordingly without further evidence.
It is racist to point at a Bangladeshi Muslim and say they are probably a sex offender and treat them accordingly without further evidence.
* indeed, intelligence led policing should have been doing this as a matter of course.
Labour also benefits - for now - from the unusual weakness of the Lib Dems and new parties.
He lost heavily.
Corbyn is a very left-wing politician and hugely polarising. He shouldn’t be on anything like 40% really, even under FPTP.
What the hell are you talking about. Show me the posts to which you refer.
Aside from his reconquest of Sicily he engaged Hannibal five times and improved Rome's strategic position on each occasion.
2 True, I am not picking a side.
3. Not really persuaded of that.
4. I think that is also true and is more inexcusable than Palestinian hatred.
Corbyn seems to me not to be anti-Semitic. He is stupid, naive, morally blind and ignorant, all good reasons not to vote for him. Maybe that is enough.
I don't think there's any chance that a Labour party led by Yvette Cooper or Angela Eagle of Owen Smith would be at 40%.
Herdson is a little complacent about the extent of remain sympathy within the more sensible Tory MPs. Most of them are keeping their heads down, but if Brexit starts heading the country toward the rocks, his Conservative peace may prove rather fragile.
Likewise the negative social effects of immigration are borne predominantly by those lower down the socioeconomic scale.
The Air India 139 flight landed at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport after 7-1/2 hours and flew over Saudi for around three hours, marking a diplomatic shift for Riyadh that Israel says was fuelled by shared concern over Iranian influence in the region.
Marcellus was just unlucky on that occasion.
Think we will have to agree to disagree regarding Jeremy Corbyn.
Jeremy Corbyn has called out Anti Semitism on numerous occasions has supported and even sponsored numerous EDMs condemning Anti Semitism.
I am now going to be canvassing for Labour for the next few weeks hopefully making a few gains. So wont be on here till early May.
Unless something dramatic happens!!
This is possible without a superhuman lexicon, which is more useful for getting rid of bad tiles and rack balancing than playing obscure bingoes.
The British press reported in the run-up to the election that Borwick, being acquainted with the incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May, was influential in the decision to remove from the Conservative manifesto the party's previous pledge of a total ban on ivory trading.[41][42] Borwick, who also serves as President of the British Antique Dealers' Association, told the House of Commons in 2016 "any ban on antique ivory is cultural vandalism".
That was one of the little clumsy tone-deaf PR fails that may well have cost the Tories a couple of seats, on top of the ones they lost for bigger-picture reasons like their lack of attractive retail offer, the loss of some remainers and failure to convert Red Kippers, and the debates debacle. But if it did cost the Tories any seats, that would have included Borwick's - who already faced difficulties as an arch-Brexiteer in a corner of remainerdom.
Banning the sale of antique ivory did strike me as a wrong-headed and illiberal policy that might look good superficially despite having to no causal connection to its supposed objective - though I suppose it is one of those things that will end up being done eventually by some government or another and never likely to be overturned by their successors. But what an example of being "right yet wrong".
(Very much in the funding its spending and renationalising plans kinda way.)
Any suggestion that Labour has no idea how to sell Brexit/spending/renationalisation to potential voters is of course entirely spurious.
On the basis that Remain Revivalism isn't actually perking the Lib Dems up, I think Labour's vagueness might be a sensible strategy. I suspect the key challenge is to provide united-looking and principled vagueness, the former perhaps being more important than the other. Spouting clearly contradictory policies is a minus. Being clearly opportunistic is also a minus but voters seem willing to forgive opportunism more than disorganisation and disunity.
They will have likely done enough if they can establish a line in which they would have done Brexit somehow differently and somehow better in a way that the vast majority of voters do not actually have the technical knowledge to comprehend beyond "what went wrong is the Tories' fault, they own it". Will more serious, hardcore Remain/super-soft Brexit types like that? Probably not, but who else are they going to vote for? The Tories? The Lib Dems? In sufficient numbers to matter?
You nail it yet again
What ever our differences, I have never seen anything from either that suggests either are other than decent people with different points of view...
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/australia-pre-race-2018.html
Police said Hassan, from Surrey, appeared to be co-operating with government deradicalisation programme Prevent at the time of the attack.
But the BBC has been told the Iraqi asylum
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43519540
What appears to be worse is that the LibDems don't seem to have been using the time to come up with any sort of alternative offering to the voters, once Brexit is done and dusted. A duff leader isn't helping. But that all feeds into the problems they aren't addressing.
I also think that the voters know Theresa May got herself a hospital pass when Cameron also took himself off the Brexit field of battle (although she didn't HAVE to put herself forward....). As long as we get out of the EU, no longer have MEPs, no longer have to take instruction from Brussels as to who must be allowed into our borders - and don't crash the economy in the process - then I suspect a significant majority of voters will shrug and think "well, that could have gone a lot worse...." and give her some degree of credit for threading a way through.
People on the left want something different just as people on the right wanted something different for so many years leading up to the referendum vote.
For all his faults, Corbyn is different.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/977534242849722368
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/977537131827654657
FLAP is often about wh o had the freshest tyres and nothing to lose at the end of the race. That's probably not Raikkonen this time around.
"What do you think of Brexit?"
https://www.eviebot.com/en/
I followed up with "What do you think of pizza with pineapple?".
A little way to go yet.