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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The danger for Leavers is if tonight’s developments provide a

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 24 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The danger for Leavers is if tonight’s developments provide a peg to de-legitimise the Referendum outcome

“The idea… that the campaign was legitimate is false.” A Brexit insider accuses Vote Leave of cheating – in response the PM’s political secretary denies the claims and “outs” the accuser as gay. #TheBrexitWhistleblower pic.twitter.com/srWVPtz7E8 https://t.co/Hzjfe0hxkk

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    First and little will change
  • I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    edited March 24
    We shall see what these revelations will or should reasonably lead to, where rules are broken there should be consequences of some kind (though do they rerun every election if there are overspends?), but let us be honest here, people have been searching for reasons why it was not legitimate from day 1, with such reasons even being for such things as 'it was old people so not fair'. It's amazing what casts doubt on legitimacy, from the reasonable to the unreasonable.

    That said, I don't think it is a certainty that the gulf in opinion will widen by a great deal.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Jesus. I actually hope this gains some traction just to see the boiled piss when it's pointed out that the tax payer paid £9 million for that remain propaganda government information leaflet.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,640
    Why now? Why not when it happened? Or immediately afterwards?

    Why wait?
  • I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    And right on cue.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    Isn't that what juniors are for?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Leave's biggest offence is that it won the referendum.

    Had the result been the other way round, any indiscretions or discrepancies within the Remain camp would have been brushed aside.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,888
    kle4 said:

    We shall see what these revelations will or should reasonably lead to, where rules are broken there should be consequences of some kind (though do they rerun every election if there are overspends?), but let us be honest here, people have been searching for reasons why it was not legitimate from day 1, with such reasons even being for such things as 'it was old people so not fair'.

    That said, I don't think it is a certainty that the gulf in opinion will widen by a great deal.

    It was old people. It was poor people. It was uneducated people. It was middle aged people. Etc. etc.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,635
    I was just cutting-and-pasting that, @Casino_Royale :p

    This transatlantic desire to delegitimise results by implying that the people who voted for them were duped is doubling down on the attitude that led to the results in the first place. It can't end well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    Leave's biggest offence is that it won the referendum.

    Strategically it would have been better for Leave if Remain had narrowly won.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    Theses people's consciences are kicking in very late in the day, in the context of being sacked in the case of Kaiser and a romantic tiff in the case of Sanni. I appreciate you might want a month or two to decide what to do in the circumstances they describe, but a delay as long as this stinks, frankly.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    edited March 24
    Scott_P said:
    Remember the Sunday Mail is for remain the exact opposite of the daily mail. It is quite amusing
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,635

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    This could be the awkward bit:
  • Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    edited March 24
    Scott_P said:
    Is it interesting? I'm not even sure what it is trying to say, other than it looks like some epic twisting in knots to try to cobble together some sort of fudged solution no matter if there is any logic involved, and in that sense little different than any government attempt

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    And right on cue.

    Bet they liked this story for headline potential - PM, Sex, Toxic, Cash, Plot, Brexit all in the same sentence, no matter one's party position you wouldn't want to miss that opportunity as a headline writer I imagine.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    edited March 24
    This header is nonsense. Not one Leave voter is going to change their mind because a Remain-supporting journalist tells them they were hoodwinked by Facebook ads.

    Besides, I though Leavers couldn’t use computers because we’re all so old?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    Voter or FB profile? I know people with many profiles.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    This could be the awkward bit:
    It looks like the pre-buttal from Cummings and Parkinson was a big mistake. Top quality investigative journalism from Carole Cadwalladr.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    My wife and I never saw them on our facebook pages
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    RoyalBlue said:

    This header is nonsense. Not one Leave voter is going to change their mind because Remain-supporting journalists tells them they were hoodwinked by Facebook ads.

    It's not necessary to change someone's mind to change their vote. Even people who hate the EU can be convinced to vote Remain in the right circumstances.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,432
    Difficult to take seriously someone who allegedly only speaks out after a personal falling out with a former colleague.
  • I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    This could be the awkward bit:

    twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/977647864615710720
    It's getting very messy.

    I was amused today at the argument that everyone knew he was gay because he attended a Number 10 Pride event.

    By that logic Theresa May is also gay because she attended that event too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,552
    Who is "he" in the Rentoul quote?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,691

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    What about the other 10 million LEAVE voters?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938
    Evening all :)

    I suspect most parties in most elections have broken the rules. The "rules" aren't clever enough to keep up with advances in technology and campaigning.

    To be honest, the democratic process has been rife with malpractice since and even before the coming of universal suffrage. Should we be bothered ? Yes and the law must constantly be updated to close down obvious loopholes.

    Should we annul elections on the basis of the rules being broken ? No but if rules have been broken those involved and responsible should and must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,551

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    What is it about the men who work closely with TMay? Nick Timothy, Gavin Wiiliamson, Damien Green and now this guy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to take seriously someone who allegedly only speaks out after a personal falling out with a former colleague.

    In fairness the truth can come out for such personal reasons. The fall of Chris Huhne?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,691
    Could a computer-literate REMAINER please tell me how to embed this image:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    This could be the awkward bit:

    twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/977647864615710720
    It's getting very messy.

    I was amused today at the argument that everyone knew he was gay because he attended a Number 10 Pride event.

    By that logic Theresa May is also gay because she attended that event too.
    Only in the bubble - again missing the point - nothing is changing minds and neither will this
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    Does that mean we can look forward to another Telegraph column from a May reject telling us what the Tories should be doing to win?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I suspect most parties in most elections have broken the rules. The "rules" aren't clever enough to keep up with advances in technology and campaigning.

    To be honest, the democratic process has been rife with malpractice since and even before the coming of universal suffrage. Should we be bothered ? Yes and the law must constantly be updated to close down obvious loopholes.

    Should we annul elections on the basis of the rules being broken ? No but if rules have been broken those involved and responsible should and must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

    That seems like a sound approach. I don't buy the claim that parties with the numbers and resources of ours cannot cobble together enough people to ensure the follow the rules appropriately, even if those rules are unclear or inadequate in the face of technology, and it needs sorting out and people to be punished, but at what level? Certainly none of the big parties (and probably smaller ones too) look entirely clean, though there are varieties of dirt.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    Those are the stories the voters listen to
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,482

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    This could be the awkward bit:

    twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/977647864615710720
    It's getting very messy.

    I was amused today at the argument that everyone knew he was gay because he attended a Number 10 Pride event.

    By that logic Theresa May is also gay because she attended that event too.
    Only in the bubble - again missing the point - nothing is changing minds and neither will this
    Quite. Hyperventilating over nothing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,984

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    What about the other 10 million LEAVE voters?
    Too busy with their pigeons, whippets and bingo to be on Facebook?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    MikeL said:

    Who is "he" in the Rentoul quote?

    Keir Starmer
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,552
    The trouble with this is that 99% of voters wont even be familiar with the concept of spending limits and I doubt most were even aware of the concept of each side having an official campaign.

    It's all far too abstract to get any significant public attention.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,552
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Who is "he" in the Rentoul quote?

    Keir Starmer
    Many thanks!
  • I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    What is it about the men who work closely with TMay? Nick Timothy, Gavin Wiiliamson, Damien Green and now this guy
    Indeed.

    Full disclosure, I really dislike Stephen Parkinson, for two reasons

    1) He worked for No2AV during the AV referendum.

    2) Like Nick Timothy he refused to go campaigning for the Tories in the Rochester & Strood by election, so Grant Shapps blackballed both of them for standing as Tory candidates at the 2015 general election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    Those are the stories the voters listen to
    The subheading is more important than the headline - "special tax an option". Some Brexit dividend!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    I was just cutting-and-pasting that, @Casino_Royale :p

    This transatlantic desire to delegitimise results by implying that the people who voted for them were duped is doubling down on the attitude that led to the results in the first place. It can't end well.

    Oh, absolutely.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,984

    Those are the stories the voters listen to
    It all sounds as if she is pinching bits from Corbyn's manifesto. Again...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    MikeL said:

    The trouble with this is that 99% of voters wont even be familiar with the concept of spending limits and I doubt most were even aware of the concept of each side having an official campaign.

    It's all far too abstract to get any significant public attention.

    Exactly
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,745

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    My wife and I never saw them on our facebook pages
    ...and you voted Remain. :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840
    edited March 24

    Those are the stories the voters listen to
    The subheading is more important than the headline - "special tax an option". Some Brexit dividend!
    Ugh at hypothecated taxes, so un-Conservative.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    Foxy said:

    Those are the stories the voters listen to
    It all sounds as if she is pinching bits from Corbyn's manifesto. Again...
    Nothing wrong with the good bits and the point is, they will be fully funded without crashing the economy
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,552
    We hear an awful lot in these negotiations about free movement of goods and people.

    But one of the EU's other principles is free movement of capital.

    Can anyone advise what the Government's (and EU's) position in the negotiations is on free movement of capital?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    edited March 24

    2) Like Nick Timothy he refused to go campaigning for the Tories in the Rochester & Strood by election, so Grant Shapps blackballed both of them for standing as Tory candidates at the 2015 general election.

    It's interesting... Timothy and Parkinson both blocked as candidates. Hannan blocked as a candidate. What's May's real agenda?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    Yes
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    As someone who signed-up to Vote Leave, liked Vote Leave on Facebook, and campaigned for Vote Leave I can confirm I received no "messages" at all.

    What I did get was Vote Leave ads in youtube during the final two weeks, and several suggested videos, as well as campaign material in my newsfeed.

    It was always the same 3-4 videos, with some GOTV messages on polling day, and that was it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    Yes
    A sensible LD policy
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,745
    tlg86 said:

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    Voter or FB profile? I know people with many profiles.

    But what do you think the average ratio of FP profiles per user is? Less than 1.1, I bet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    This could be the awkward bit:

    twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/977647864615710720
    It's getting very messy.

    I was amused today at the argument that everyone knew he was gay because he attended a Number 10 Pride event.

    By that logic Theresa May is also gay because she attended that event too.
    It's a non-story. No-one has noticed or is talking about it outside the bubble.

    Hell, even I'm trying to understand it and am getting bored just researching it.

    I have better things to do with my Saturday than wade through Cummings blog, which might take me until Monday.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    What is it about the men who work closely with TMay? Nick Timothy, Gavin Wiiliamson, Damien Green and now this guy
    Indeed.

    Full disclosure, I really dislike Stephen Parkinson, for two reasons

    1) He worked for No2AV during the AV referendum.
    Erm, you do know that the man who made the Tories fight the AV referendum really hard was........

    Georgie Porgie
  • 2) Like Nick Timothy he refused to go campaigning for the Tories in the Rochester & Strood by election, so Grant Shapps blackballed both of them for standing as Tory candidates at the 2015 general election.

    It's interesting... Timothy and Parkinson both blocked as candidates. Hannan blocked as a candidate. What's May's real agenda?
    It was Grant Shapps who blackballed Timothy and Parkinson.

    They were SPADs at the time and it would have violated their civil service code of conduct.

    But others took leaves of absence to try and defeat TPD Reckless.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    edited March 24
    Perhaps (deep breath) Farage was right. Perhaps we do need a second referendum to rub the arch Remainers’ noses in it.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,218
    edited March 24

    Could a computer-literate REMAINER please tell me how to embed this image:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg

    I've tried doing it before using the IMG tag, for example

    img src="http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg" alt="Sunils barchart">
    But it doesn't seem to work. Ask whoever runs the site (@rcs1000 ? @TheScreamingEagles ?)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    My wife and I never saw them on our facebook pages
    ...and you voted Remain. :smile:
    And I did and am hoping that following the success of TM in Europe this week and the obvious way the leaders respect her maybe we will end up with a close Associate Membership
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,745
    edited March 24

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    Yes
    Income is the wrong thing to tax further though - wealth tax is the way to go.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828

    tlg86 said:

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    Voter or FB profile? I know people with many profiles.

    But what do you think the average ratio of FP profiles per user is? Less than 1.1, I bet.
    Probably - also, there probably fair number of non-voters in there.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    RoyalBlue said:

    .

    Excellent point.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,552
    edited March 24
    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?
    Whatever the rights and wrongs may be, it's worth noting that Liz Truss expressly ruled out 1% on NI on the Daily Politics pre PMQs last Wednesday.

    I was surprised as I wouldn't have thought she would be in a position to tie the Govt's hands but from memory what she said was 100% clear cut.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    Federer loses in the ATP Masters in Miami to Kokkinakis - world number 175.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    As someone who signed-up to Vote Leave, liked Vote Leave on Facebook, and campaigned for Vote Leave I can confirm I received no "messages" at all.

    What I did get was Vote Leave ads in youtube during the final two weeks, and several suggested videos, as well as campaign material in my newsfeed.

    It was always the same 3-4 videos, with some GOTV messages on polling day, and that was it.
    Vote Leave put out all sorts of dodgy targeted Facebook ads. Things like "Vote Leave - Save our maternity units!", "Vote Leave - Stop bailing Greece out!", "Vote Leave - Stop the transport of whale meat!".
  • tlg86 said:

    I'd hate to be in Stephen Parkinson's shoes.

    Plus Mrs May has a habit of ditching her staff to save her own skin.

    What is it about the men who work closely with TMay? Nick Timothy, Gavin Wiiliamson, Damien Green and now this guy
    Indeed.

    Full disclosure, I really dislike Stephen Parkinson, for two reasons

    1) He worked for No2AV during the AV referendum.
    Erm, you do know that the man who made the Tories fight the AV referendum really hard was........

    Georgie Porgie
    I know. He did fall silent when some bloke on a website about betting on politics pointed out the Tories would have won an even bigger majority in 2015 under AV.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 6
    edited March 24
    In 1974, Hiroo Onoda was captured in the Phillipines still fighting WW2 for the Japanese Imperial Army.

    In 2045 they'll find a Remainer dug in somewhere like Wagamama in Upper Street in Islington.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    JackW said:

    Federer loses in the ATP Masters in Miami to Kokkinakis - world number 175.

    I knew he was past it :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    In 1974, Hiroo Onoda was captured in the Phillipines still fighting WW2 for the Japanese Imperial Army.

    In 2045 they'll find a Remainer dug in somewhere like Wagamama in Upper Street in Islington.

    My posts are powered by their unlimited green tea.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,218
    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to take seriously someone who allegedly only speaks out after a personal falling out with a former colleague.

    Given that Cummings has himself fallen out with his former colleagues, that does pose a rather interesting logical problem...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    Yes
    Income is the wrong thing to tax further though - wealth tax is the way to go.
    Could be a big vote looser depending on what you call wealth
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550

    Could a computer-literate REMAINER please tell me how to embed this image:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg

    computer-illiterate workaround: tweet it and link to the tweet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    I'm not sure I would: it will buy us about 5 years, whereupon the NHS will be desperate for yet another 1p rise - just to stand still.

    Healthcare is going to consume an ever greater % of national income on current trends as people live longer, and more conditions become treatable or containable, whilst also being chronic.

    The long-term solution has to be to move to more flexible working for retirees with them able to take employment, pensions set at life-expectancy minus seven years, and a more mixed funding model of public, private and personal healthcare - just as we've done for pensions.

    But, that's politically toxic at the moment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    I'm not sure I would: it will buy us about 5 years, whereupon the NHS will be desperate for yet another 1p rise - just to stand still.

    Healthcare is going to consume an ever greater % of national income on current trends as people live longer, and more conditions become treatable or containable, whilst also being chronic.

    The long-term solution has to be to move to more flexible working for retirees with them able to take employment, pensions set at life-expectancy minus seven years, and a more mixed funding model of public, private and personal healthcare - just as we've done for pensions.

    But, that's politically toxic at the moment.
    Hypothetically, if Ireland were reunified and the health systems were merged, it would provide a good case study in how to migrate the NHS to an insurance based model.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584

    In 1974, Hiroo Onoda was captured in the Phillipines still fighting WW2 for the Japanese Imperial Army.

    In 2045 they'll find a Remainer dug in somewhere like Wagamama in Upper Street in Islington.

    Welcome to PB
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    I'm not sure I would: it will buy us about 5 years, whereupon the NHS will be desperate for yet another 1p rise - just to stand still.

    Healthcare is going to consume an ever greater % of national income on current trends as people live longer, and more conditions become treatable or containable, whilst also being chronic.

    The long-term solution has to be to move to more flexible working for retirees with them able to take employment, pensions set at life-expectancy minus seven years, and a more mixed funding model of public, private and personal healthcare - just as we've done for pensions.

    But, that's politically toxic at the moment.
    What we need to do is buy some time to do a proper fix (if one is possible), so the 1p plan plus some longer term thinking.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938


    Income is the wrong thing to tax further though - wealth tax is the way to go.

    We need to raise £4 billion - would simply raising the figure of additional rate tax to 46% be enough ? I doubt it - I also doubt whether raising higher rate tax to 41% on its own be enough.

    The supplementary argument is the NHS is or can be used by all - on that basis I think we should all be asked to contribute.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    Yes
    Income is the wrong thing to tax further though - wealth tax is the way to go.
    Could be a big vote looser depending on what you call wealth
    Well wealth is easy enough to define. Assets less liabilities, future pension pots discounted to a PV.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign.

    Crickey, that's what 214 messages per voter.
    As someone who signed-up to Vote Leave, liked Vote Leave on Facebook, and campaigned for Vote Leave I can confirm I received no "messages" at all.

    What I did get was Vote Leave ads in youtube during the final two weeks, and several suggested videos, as well as campaign material in my newsfeed.

    It was always the same 3-4 videos, with some GOTV messages on polling day, and that was it.
    Vote Leave put out all sorts of dodgy targeted Facebook ads. Things like "Vote Leave - Save our maternity units!", "Vote Leave - Stop bailing Greece out!", "Vote Leave - Stop the transport of whale meat!".
    Neither side put out exemplary material, but there were some Vote Leave ads that were quite good, just as there were some Remain ads that resorting to hyperbole, including trying to insinuate 3 million jobs would be lost if we left, and households would lose £4,300 a year.
  • viewcode said:

    Could a computer-literate REMAINER please tell me how to embed this image:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg

    I've tried doing it before using the IMG tag, for example

    img src="http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg" alt="Sunils barchart">
    But it doesn't seem to work. Ask whoever runs the site (@rcs1000 ? @TheScreamingEagles ?)
    It's a wordpress permissions issue.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,482
    edited March 24
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    Yes
    Income is the wrong thing to tax further though - wealth tax is the way to go.
    Could be a big vote looser depending on what you call wealth
    Well wealth is easy enough to define. Assets less liabilities, future pension pots discounted to a PV.
    Ooh that’ll go down like a mug of cold sick when the whopping value all those public sector pensions becomes taxable then....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,745
    MikeL said:

    The trouble with this is that 99% of voters wont even be familiar with the concept of spending limits and I doubt most were even aware of the concept of each side having an official campaign.

    It's all far too abstract to get any significant public attention.

    That may be so Mike...

    But the same could have been said of Watergate when it forst began to break in mid-1972. Nixon was relected in that November with 60% of the popular vote but Watergate got him in the end.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,691

    In 1974, Hiroo Onoda was captured in the Phillipines still fighting WW2 for the Japanese Imperial Army.

    In 2045 they'll find a Remainer dug in somewhere like Wagamama in Upper Street in Islington.

    I made that joke (or one very similar) several months ago :)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    Yes
    Income is the wrong thing to tax further though - wealth tax is the way to go.
    Could be a big vote looser depending on what you call wealth
    Well wealth is easy enough to define. Assets less liabilities, future pension pots discounted to a PV.
    Yes I understand that but the starting point of a wealth tax will decide how it would be received
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    I'm not sure I would: it will buy us about 5 years, whereupon the NHS will be desperate for yet another 1p rise - just to stand still.

    Healthcare is going to consume an ever greater % of national income on current trends as people live longer, and more conditions become treatable or containable, whilst also being chronic.

    The long-term solution has to be to move to more flexible working for retirees with them able to take employment, pensions set at life-expectancy minus seven years, and a more mixed funding model of public, private and personal healthcare - just as we've done for pensions.

    But, that's politically toxic at the moment.
    What we need to do is buy some time to do a proper fix (if one is possible), so the 1p plan plus some longer term thinking.
    I'd like to see almost everyone employed, and employers offering private healthcare insurance as standard, as they are now required to do for private pensions.

    I'd then encourage individuals to invest in personal healthcare savings accounts (a bit like stocks and shares ISAs) to fund major healthcare costs in their later years, either directly or by purchasing extra cover.

    The NHS can then focus on general practice, A&E, and operations, and a solid safety net, all free at the point of use, but also not overstrained.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    I'm not sure I would: it will buy us about 5 years, whereupon the NHS will be desperate for yet another 1p rise - just to stand still.

    Healthcare is going to consume an ever greater % of national income on current trends as people live longer, and more conditions become treatable or containable, whilst also being chronic.

    The long-term solution has to be to move to more flexible working for retirees with them able to take employment, pensions set at life-expectancy minus seven years, and a more mixed funding model of public, private and personal healthcare - just as we've done for pensions.

    But, that's politically toxic at the moment.
    Life expectancy minus 7? I think that’s a brave policy.

    I always thought the voucher scheme from the 2005 Tory manifesto was a good idea.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,745
    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:


    Those are the stories the voters listen to

    Would you support 1p in the £ income tax rise to provide additional NHS funding ?

    Yes
    Income is the wrong thing to tax further though - wealth tax is the way to go.
    Could be a big vote looser depending on what you call wealth
    Well wealth is easy enough to define. Assets less liabilities, future pension pots discounted to a PV.
    Ooh that’ll go down like a mug of cold sick when the whopping value all those public sector pensions becomes taxable then....
    ... not many Tory votes there to lose.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 3,745
    stodge said:


    Income is the wrong thing to tax further though - wealth tax is the way to go.

    We need to raise £4 billion - would simply raising the figure of additional rate tax to 46% be enough ? I doubt it - I also doubt whether raising higher rate tax to 41% on its own be enough.

    The supplementary argument is the NHS is or can be used by all - on that basis I think we should all be asked to contribute.


    We all do contribute. But I suggested a wealth tax, not income tax.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,218

    viewcode said:

    Could a computer-literate REMAINER please tell me how to embed this image:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg

    I've tried doing it before using the IMG tag, for example

    img src="http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg" alt="Sunils barchart">
    But it doesn't seem to work. Ask whoever runs the site (@rcs1000 ? @TheScreamingEagles ?)
    It's a wordpress permissions issue.
    Ah, thank you. Any workarounds?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938

    I'm not sure I would: it will buy us about 5 years, whereupon the NHS will be desperate for yet another 1p rise - just to stand still.

    Healthcare is going to consume an ever greater % of national income on current trends as people live longer, and more conditions become treatable or containable, whilst also being chronic.

    The long-term solution has to be to move to more flexible working for retirees with them able to take employment, pensions set at life-expectancy minus seven years, and a more mixed funding model of public, private and personal healthcare - just as we've done for pensions.

    But, that's politically toxic at the moment.

    To be honest, this "problem" has existed for decades and no Govenrment of any stripe has had the courage to take it on .

    It cuts to the core of what kind of society we want to be - we could accept Scandinavian-style tax rates in return for a (possibly) world class health service or we could try to adapt the economic culture of society to put more emphasis on healthcare financial planning and perhaps less emphasis on conspicuous consumption.

    Interesting debate.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,691

    viewcode said:

    Could a computer-literate REMAINER please tell me how to embed this image:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg

    I've tried doing it before using the IMG tag, for example

    img src="http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Sunil-bar-chart.jpg" alt="Sunils barchart">
    But it doesn't seem to work. Ask whoever runs the site (@rcs1000 ? @TheScreamingEagles ?)
    It's a wordpress permissions issue.
    It's a link to a file on PB itself!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,984
    RoyalBlue said:

    Perhaps (deep breath) Farage was right. Perhaps we do need a second referendum to rub the arch Remainers’ noses in it.

    It could go the other way. Not because of any real change of heart, but because plebiscites are always a good excuse to kick the government up the arse.

This discussion has been closed.