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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Coporeal on the LSE polling seminar
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Coporeal on the LSE polling seminar
A couple of days ago I was lucky enough (genuinely) to attend (sneak into the back of) a polling seminar hosted at the LSE featuring professional pollsters, academics, and a few assorted others like Mike (also complimentary wine).
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A seminar of the also rans seems a wee bit of a waste of breath, somewhat like asking any other PBer than Andrea to provide breaking political news on the site - futile !!
The ARSE - Never Knowingly Undersold.
BTW are you our most northerly UK poster ??
However back to Lloyds, clearly it's good news that the bank is coming to a position of full privatization but I was surprised the taxpayer didn't earn 80p a share when the demand from the institutions was so solid.
Tory education news@toryeducation14h
.@timloughton You babbling muppet, you never had judgement worth a damn
Is Ozzie selling "6% of our [sic] stake" or a 6% of shares within the Lloyds Group PLC? I think it is the latter but I also possess an understanding of basic English, Maths and Economics; others may not....
On-topic (Addendum):
Isn't it just a Spanish politician agreeing with his own party's line?
I think they may find leaving the UK is the mechanism:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/catalan-eu-claim-may-impact-on-scots-independence-1-3096498
For those wondering I've decided against the 3.5 for Mercedes to top score in Singapore. Far too near the edge. If you think Hamilton will get the win (almost, but not quite, a prerequisite for the top score bet to come off) then the 4.5 on that looks better than the 3.5 for Mercedes (not that I'm backing either).
Mr. Corporeal, sadly that final prediction seems entirely realistic.
Countdown - I Day 1 Hour 1 minute
Disagreement arises when that generally accepted principle conflicts with PC and multicultists start twisting themselves in knots.
"Could someone please explain to the Liverpool farmer/wine-salesman/whatever he really is that I do not correspond with or speak to those to whom I am indifferent. "
Pompous oaf.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1997-2001
"Why does every thread have to degenerate into petty abuse? It makes coming here pointless at times."
The reason why it's still worth coming on is because the interesting posters still outnumber the abusive ones (particularly if Sean isn't around) by about four to one.
'Ask your father to pass the salt.'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1JReyGsdOA
*chortle*
ike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Today's YouGov sees LAB lead down to 3
Con 34%
Lab 37%
LD 10%
UKIP 12%
'London rule' is seen as awful (despite 2/3 of the most recent Chancellors and 1/3 or 2/3 [depending on how you view Blair] of the most recent PMs being Scottish), whereas 'Brussels rule' is seen as lovely and splendid.
http://www.euractiv.com/video/brussels-independent-catalonia-n-530496
If nobody else is going to ask for an opinion it feels like something the UK government should do, since it seems like a useful information for the British (for now) voters who will be voting on independence.
a) the referendum is still a year away and is in any case a foregone conclusion
b) the polls move by +/- 1pt each time evoking a tremendous sense of ennui
c) the only questions are:
1) what will the Lab=>LD switchers do in 2015?
2) how many kippers will "return" to the Cons in 2015?
And that's it until May 2015. And there's only so much we can rehearse those arguments/points.
So it gets personal.
ps. F**k off
There must be SOME taxation, obviously - but the less the State extracts to pay for its services, the better.
Small State = good. big State = bad.
Always.
Roger,
To be fair to Sean T, his abuse is usually so far over the top, it's funny.
Or do you mean more like the scottish tory surge or the tory majority nailed on for 2010 that the comical PB Hodges seemed to think was a forgegone conclusion?
LOL
@SO - “The headline in El Periodico, for example, is "Cold shower from Europe - the Commission reiterates to Catalonia that leaving Spain means being outside the EU".”
Presumably ‘outside the EU’ means no longer obligated to any treaties or what have you that Spain may have signed up to? – The obvious problem for Catalonia, (should it gain independence) would be that if it wishes to remain a member of the EU, they’d need to renegotiate everything from scratch.
Irrespective of who the messenger was, I wonder if this ‘wake up call’ is directed at more than one possible newly independent region.
1. How will turnout affect voting ( same for Indyref ) ?
2. Why are the Tories so bad at winning seats outside the South ( Inverse for Labour ) ?
3. When can we have a real CoE ?
4. Just how badly prepared for a EU ref are UKIP ?
what's with the "troll" sign for Caveat?
It's a discussion forum, so discuss with him.
oh and wrt the referendum I mean, specifically, the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence which will be won by the "No" campaign.
5. Why hasn't it sunk in yet that the less lib dem MPs there are the less chance of a hung parliament there is?
Similarly Edinburgh's RBS and BoS became London banks after they failed.
" Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan. "
Clegg now has to produce a difficult balancing act. He has to do enough to stop Labour getting a majority while at the same time keeping enough blue water between him and Cameron so as not to switch off the Left of his party. If he manages that he can stop either Lab or Con getting a majority and sit in the middle as kingmaker.
Button, Hulkenberg and perhaps the Williams (thinking back to Bottas' 3rd on the grid earlier in the season) could stand to benefit.
On the question of pollsters' predictions, I seem to recall that they didn't do particularly impressively with a week to go to the last general election, never mind at a distance of nearly 2 years.
Off topic, I'm very sorry to have learned of the death of URW. He was one of pb's finest ever posters. It's a great shame that we've lost the historical archive. Many of his posts would be worth rereading now.
What shrinks a little more drastically is the size of what RodCrosby used to call the Kingmaker Zone, where the LibDems get to choose which party to work with.
I didn't see him use it on you so apologies. If I had I would have said the same to him. In fact here you go:
@Caveat
this is a discussion forum so instead of using the "troll" button why don't you discuss.
There, happy now?
Plus to say interaction on an, um, discussion board is nothing to do with another contributor is a novel way of approaching a discussion board....
Similarly UK's RBS and BoS became Scottish banks after they failed.
The SNP is clearly unhappy with Westminster/London being the capital of the country to which they belong, and wish to separate. Is it not legitimate to point out that 4/6 or 3/6 of the most powerful men in recent times (since 1997) have been Scottish?
What has not been much discussed: there will be no further sales this year in all likelihood; Jan/Feb not the best time to sell billions of shares; so next batch will go spring 2014 and be larger in size.
Unless the government goes with that plan to give them away. By my calcs, if 6% is worth 3.2b, then 32% is worth at least 17b. That divided by all Brit Nats on the GE voting register is about 500 per person.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/singapore-early-discussion.html
A reminder of just how 'united' the tories are over Cammie's new Cast Iron referendum
Outwith a plus-or-minus scoring system it is up to the puntah to show disgust by scaling their response in accordance to their wit-or-whim. How anyone bothers with the Belgian-[moderated] is beyound the bacon-scale. **
* And I do not wish to discourse further upon said points....
** Note-to-me: Revamp site's AJAX scripts.
Excellent
The EU hasn't had its accounts signed off for about two decades. The leader is unelected, and even were it not so there is no European demos, despite the attempts to disintegrate national sentiment in favour of the EU. There's such staggering variance in the economies of the eurozone that the single currency simply cannot work, whereas the British pound is so delightful even separatists are reluctant to part with it.
Whilst I disagree with your separatist view, it is a valid perspective. Comparing the EU and UK as if they are the same is silly, and clearly wrong. Furthermore, if you genuinely believe them to be essentially the same, it is deranged to have separation from the UK as your party's raison d'etre whilst at the same time yearning to become/remain a member of the EU.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2422932/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Shameless-treachery-Mr-Cable-disloyal-dishonest-politician-times.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Yesterday, Vince Cable delivered a speech at the Liberal Party Conference which for sheer bile was without precedent in modern times. No Cabinet minister has ever attacked the Government of which he is part in such vitriolic terms.
The wonder is that the dyspeptic Business Secretary should wish to remain a member of a Government dominated by a Tory party that he asserted has ‘reverted to type as the nasty party’, and which, according to him, practises ‘ugly’ policies based on the calculation that ‘fear trumps hope’.
Mr Cable has regularly used Lib Dem conferences to lash the ‘hated’ Tories. But this speech went much further than the usual crowd-pleasing rant. It was a despicable assault on colleagues and on the Coalition’s record, delivered in tones of insufferable moral superiority.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2422932/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Shameless-treachery-Mr-Cable-disloyal-devious-politician-times.html#ixzz2f8WdeHeb
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Its his modus operandi..
Is Vince @MickP0rk ?
I think we should be told.
UK producer output prices +0.1% m/m in August, +1.6% y/y; input prices down 0.2% over the month, +2.8% y/y.
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking
UK inflation measured by the consumer prices index fell to 2.7% in August, from July's figure of 2.8% bbc.in/1aH2JDg
Peter Hoskins @PeterHoskinsSky
ONS: In the 12 months to July 2013 UK house prices increased by 3.3%, up from a 3.1% increase in the 12 months to June 2013
UK producer output prices +0.1% m/m in August, +1.6% y/y; input prices down 0.2% over the month, +2.8% y/y.
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking
UK inflation measured by the consumer prices index fell to 2.7% in August, from July's figure of 2.8% bbc.in/1aH2JDg
ONS @statisticsONS
Factory gate #prices rose 1.6% in the year to August, down from a rise of 2.1% last month: bit.ly/1atfnWa
I was going to work in London on the 100 bus a few years ago, and the only other passenger on board was a lady with a veil over her face. I said hello and asked her what she thought of wearing it, and she said she was ok with it... What had always bugged me was how people wearing this kind of headgear recognised each other so I asked how her kids knew it was her when she picked them up from school... she said "they just know" which didnt convince me...
She said she took the veil off at home so her husband, the only man that mattered, got to see her... and basically she had to wear the veil so no other man could eye her up. I said what if another man fell in love with her because of her eyes, would she have to wear shades? She just said it wouldnt happen...
Must admit she was quite good fun, not serious and easive as I expected, but couldnt escape the feeling she had be brainwashed, and that I might get my head cut off if her husband foind out about the chat.
Polls are reactive to the changes in opinion, which lags events.
Polls can only assess the effects of adjustments and assumptions reactively by measuring against election results. Learning from Local, European and General elections is not transferable as voters apply different criteria to party selection in each type of election. Unfortunately by elections are not much use for general elections as the dynamics are invariably different to general elections.
Polls record how people think they will vote at a time when there is no vote. The figures are adjusted in a way that may account for the vagaries of inaccurate sampling, assuming the respondents know or admit to how they voted last time the adjustments may or may not be accurate. Add the unknown variations from a fracturing of the 2 party system, the effect of coalition government and the loss of the home for traditional protest votes the polls react to the inputs of the pollsters. Polls lag between 1 and 5 years behind actuality, as they are tested on about a five year cycle where the empirical evidence is collected.
In other words, take polls with a pinch of salt, with the exception of ARSE polls, where application of salt will be frowned upon.
The only useful feature that is gleaned from polls is the trend. Given consistent methodology over time they will show the relative movement for each party over a period. The rest is hot air (would it be indiscreet to mention ARSE at this point?).
I tried to enter my local lib-dem offices wearing a ski mask and to my surprise was arrested. So much for wearing what you want. ........lol
Are you still a fake libertarian "serial labour voting" "floating voter"?
I think we should be told.
;^ )
Mikey P has been saying that on "This Week" all year...
To me it seems like the Tory attitude to EU membership is like that of someone who wants to split up with their partner, but rather than follow their instinct and make a fresh start, they go on an expensive holiday, have another "band aid" kid, start an affair with someone at work etc, anything rather than admit the relationship is over
Or they could just buy gold and jewels.
Lefties and the consequences of envy just don't mix.
Anyways - I've just watched S4 of Supernatural and there's an exact pee take of Horatio in a whole scene and its hilarious - LOL funny because they get it spot on. If you haven't seen it - you must.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvT_pG0nErE
They've only claimed he resigned twice already after all. ;^ )
Bit unfortunate that lib dem members just voted Cable lib dem minister of the year, isn't it?
Clegg can no more be rid of him that Cammie can get rid of the toxic Osbrowne.
LOL
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2013/09/coffee-shots-cables-small-beer-to-lib-dem-activists/
"Vince Cable is apparently the darling of his party. But not according to this highly scientific poll being conducted by the Campaign for Real Ale at the Liberal Democrat conference in Glasgow, where the Business Secretary is currently the least popular pick from the top dogs in the party for the best person to have a pint with. What a bitter sensation that must be."
Kennedy would have swept the board with that one. Not that the lib dem conference was packed to the rafters anyway. Quite the reverse.
For that matter wee Willie "fourteen pints" Hague would likely sweep the board in a tory conference and he was made utterly irrelevant by Tiny Blair Cameron's incompetent Syria vote.
Sadly not I.
For fun items we can look forward to Mcslimes book during the Labour conference.
Just imagine that he was paid as an impartial civil servant and only worked on helping Labour. Irony?