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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I think you should be laying the 1/8 favourite for Barnet

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 25 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I think you should be laying the 1/8 favourite for Barnet Council

London was horrific for the Tories in last year’s general election, seats like Tooting which were a Tory target saw Labour win with a majority of over fifteen thousand. In Battersea, where there was a near eight thousand Tory majority became a Labour gain. Overall there was a Tory to Labour swing of 6.3% in London, which was three times the 2.1% swing in Great Britain as a whole.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,846
    edited March 25
    First for the Grand Prix?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290
    I dunno, I leave my computer to make a cup of coffee and someone beats me to it!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    Labour don’t have an antisemitism problem, they did a review and everything...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    I think there is a “not” missing in the second paragraph?

    Very hard to see Labour not taking this.

    Also very hard to see England saving this test.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,400
    edited March 25
    Though I'd argue there is no such thing as 'a Jewish vote' Barnet is a bit of an exception. It has a large ultra orthodox population who have chosen not to integrate. However with a population of just 15% and Ken Livingstone much in the news last time I'd be surprised if there are any voters left to switch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,620
    DavidL said:

    I think there is a “not” missing in the second paragraph?

    Very hard to see Labour not taking this.

    Also very hard to see England saving this test.

    We've been very unlucky with the rain. Had it been dry, Auckland would have been the site of a famous England charity m victory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think there is a “not” missing in the second paragraph?

    Very hard to see Labour not taking this.

    Also very hard to see England saving this test.

    We've been very unlucky with the rain. Had it been dry, Auckland would have been the site of a famous England charity m victory.
    England have forced the first bowling change of the match on NZ. It’s something I suppose.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,400
    edited March 25
    OT. Listening to the Australian cheating debacle...I can remember examples of individual cheating in international sport but never something involving a whole team. I wonder whether the election of the amoral Trump has created a climate where this sort of behaviour has now become the norm
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    edited March 25
    Roger said:

    OT. Listening to the Australian cheating debacle...I can remember examples of individual cheating in international sport but never something involving a whole team. I wonder whether the election of the amoral Trump has created a climate where this sort of behaviour has now become the norm

    As always rog total nonsense. Go check your cricket history and you will find ball tampering and match fixing has been previously widespread and certainly not undertaken on an individual basis.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 964
    Roger said:

    OT. Listening to the Australian cheating debacle...I can remember examples of individual cheating in international sport but never something involving a whole team. I wonder whether the election of the amoral Trump has created a climate where this sort of behaviour has now become the norm

    Crazy partisan nonsense... it is because of Brexit.

    ;)
  • Roger said:

    OT. Listening to the Australian cheating debacle...I can remember examples of individual cheating in international sport but never something involving a whole team. I wonder whether the election of the amoral Trump has created a climate where this sort of behaviour has now become the norm

    Nah. The Aussies have always been violating the spirit of cricket.

    They once bowled the last ball of a match underarm to win an ODI.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    edited March 25
    What is the most infamous international team cheating scandal?

    The Spanish para-olympics basketball team comes to mind. For those that don’t remember they pretended to have learning difficulties and not only were they not mentally handicapped many were former / even pros.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 25
    Curses and spits at the F1 owners.

    The permanent on screen graphic on the left hand side of the screen is annoying.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,681
    Roger said:

    OT. Listening to the Australian cheating debacle...I can remember examples of individual cheating in international sport but never something involving a whole team. I wonder whether the election of the amoral Trump has created a climate where this sort of behaviour has now become the norm

    Lol - has there ever been a more idiotic post than one which tries to blame a US President for a cheating cricket team. It's clearly the result of Brexit! :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,681

    Roger said:

    OT. Listening to the Australian cheating debacle...I can remember examples of individual cheating in international sport but never something involving a whole team. I wonder whether the election of the amoral Trump has created a climate where this sort of behaviour has now become the norm

    Crazy partisan nonsense... it is because of Brexit.

    ;)
    QED - I'm a Tory - you're a crazed lefty - we must be right!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,462
    edited March 25
    Most of the wards in Barnet are safe for one of the parties. There are 4 or so marginal wards:

    Safe Con:
    Edgware, Finchley Church End, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, High Barnet, Mill Hill, Oakleigh, Totteridge

    Safe Lab:
    Burnt Oak, Colindale, Coppetts, East Finchley, Underhill, West Finchley, Woodhouse, West Hendon

    Marginal:
    Brunswick Park, Childs Hill, East Barnet, Hale

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/2/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,584
    Careful now, Ken got into trouble for implying there is a Jewish block vote. Much of Barnet is quite prosperous. Houses are large and expensive. It contains Mrs Thatcher's old constituency. That is why Conservatives do well there, not because of rabbinical diktat.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,101
  • Bloody Haas and race control.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244

    Curses and spits at the F1 owners.

    The permanent on screen graphic on the left hand side of the screen is annoying.

    Conspiracy theorists might note that the second Haas broke down in the perfect place and at the perfect time to aid Vettel in taking the lead....

    (In this case I am a believer in happenstance.)

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290

    Careful now, Ken got into trouble for implying there is a Jewish block vote. Much of Barnet is quite prosperous. Houses are large and expensive. It contains Mrs Thatcher's old constituency. That is why Conservatives do well there, not because of rabbinical diktat.

    'Diktat' ?

    Really?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,188
    1/8 isn’t value. I’m still expecting Labour to take control of the council.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244
    Got to admire Hamilton's determination to win... but stressing the engine in the first race of a long season when only three are available is maybe not entirely smart.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    Good Morning everyone. Beginning to suspect we might have the pleasure of Cook’s company at Essex a lot more this season.
  • Nigelb said:

    Got to admire Hamilton's determination to win... but stressing the engine in the first race of a long season when only three are available is maybe not entirely smart.

    This is all my fault, I decided to get up and watch the race, I should have gone back to sleep.
  • Good Morning everyone. Beginning to suspect we might have the pleasure of Cook’s company at Essex a lot more this season.

    Weird to think he scored an unbeaten 244 in an Ashes test a couple of test matches ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244

    Nigelb said:

    Got to admire Hamilton's determination to win... but stressing the engine in the first race of a long season when only three are available is maybe not entirely smart.

    This is all my fault, I decided to get up and watch the race, I should have gone back to sleep.
    It was a fairly outrageous set of coincidences required to change the lead, so it seems only reasonable for you to take the blame.

    Meanwhile, England are only going to need around 300 on the final day.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    Good Morning everyone. Beginning to suspect we might have the pleasure of Cook’s company at Essex a lot more this season.

    Weird to think he scored an unbeaten 244 in an Ashes test a couple of test matches ago.
    Class is permanent. Form on the other hand......

    Going back to one’s county sometimes works wonders.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,609
    Damn the Haas wheel gun!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244

    Good Morning everyone. Beginning to suspect we might have the pleasure of Cook’s company at Essex a lot more this season.

    Weird to think he scored an unbeaten 244 in an Ashes test a couple of test matches ago.
    Class is permanent. Form on the other hand......

    Going back to one’s county sometimes works wonders.
    Cook's barely had any form in ages, the double century apart.
    Class might be permanent, but reaction times and eyesight aren't.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    Nigelb said:

    Good Morning everyone. Beginning to suspect we might have the pleasure of Cook’s company at Essex a lot more this season.

    Weird to think he scored an unbeaten 244 in an Ashes test a couple of test matches ago.
    Class is permanent. Form on the other hand......

    Going back to one’s county sometimes works wonders.
    Cook's barely had any form in ages, the double century apart.
    Class might be permanent, but reaction times and eyesight aren't.

    I would have thought he was a bit young for those to be deteriorating to this extent. You could be right, of course. It was sad to see Gooch’s last couple of games for Essex; he obviously couldn’t p[ick up the ball the way he had in the past.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, well, quite.

    Less than thrilled about that. However, it did make the race rather more interesting. On the other hand, it also damaged the prospects of the other bet (Raikkonen fastest lap) coming off.

    Actually woke in time for the whole race. Quite an interesting one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    There’s a big problem with this thread; the picture of a gurning Ken L.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 744
    Rod Liddle's take on Corbyn in today's Times (£)...

    "Nothing proves Jeremy Corbyn is anti-semitic — just everything he says and does"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/nothing-proves-jeremy-corbyn-is-anti-semitic-just-everything-he-says-anddoes-sh0n23hg0
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    1/8 isn’t value. I’m still expecting Labour to take control of the council.

    The question is whether 7-2 is value on the other side
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    Caught at long on when trying to save a test. I mean, really?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,400
    1...2...1...2...3....4...

    Follow her down to a bridge by a fountain
    Where rocking horse people eat marshmallow pies
    Everyone smiles as you drift past the flowers
    That grow so incredibly high
    Newspaper taxis appear on the shore
    Waiting to take you away...Waiting to take you away.....Waiting to take you away....


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Is Ken's favourite film "Downfall", or does he find it just too upsetting to watch?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    On topic, it's a good tip. Unfortunately, the Jewish population is only c.15% of Barnet I think, and I think Corbyn will have more than enough support elsewhere to tip it Red.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,462
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    Do the marginal wards have a high proportion of Jewish voters?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 25
    AndyJS said:

    Most of the wards in Barnet are safe for one of the parties. There are 4 or so marginal wards:

    Safe Con:
    Edgware, Finchley Church End, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, High Barnet, Mill Hill, Oakleigh, Totteridge

    Safe Lab:
    Burnt Oak, Colindale, Coppetts, East Finchley, Underhill, West Finchley, Woodhouse, West Hendon

    Marginal:
    Brunswick Park, Childs Hill, East Barnet, Hale

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/2/

    So the Tories hold Barnet if they win half the marginal wards and their safe wards, Labour win Barnet if they win 3/4 of the marginal wards and their safe wards
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 25
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    Do the marginal wards have a high proportion of Jewish voters?
    Well certainly far higher than the national and London average yes though presumably about average for the borough as a whole
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    edited March 25
    DavidL said:

    Caught at long on when trying to save a test. I mean, really?

    JKust hit a six, too. I blame habits learned in 20/20.

    “Twill be ‘interesting’ to see the situation when the Capetown Test restarts!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    .....

    Just realised Ricciardo got fastest lap, ahead of Raikkonen. I think both bets could've come off...

    *sighs*
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    edited March 25
    F1: post-race analysis up here.:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2018.html

    Edited extra bit: spoilers galore, of course.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 600
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    There was an interesting discrepancy in Barnet between the Labour % vote share for the GLC seats and in the simultaneous mayoral election (between Bojo & Ken L) in 2012, which was just sufficient to swing the mayoral election in favour of Bojo. I suspected at the time that Jewish voters in this electoral area were sympathetic to Labour in general, but would not vote for Ken L. Although I rarely agree with TSE, he may have a point in the thread header.

    However, I would emphasise that overall Jews are a tiny minority in the UK (just 0.4% of the total population), so the borough of Barnet is very much an exception when considering whether there is such a thing as the Jewish vote in the UK.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,623
    Gadfly said:

    Rod Liddle's take on Corbyn in today's Times (£)...

    "Nothing proves Jeremy Corbyn is anti-semitic — just everything he says and does"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/nothing-proves-jeremy-corbyn-is-anti-semitic-just-everything-he-says-anddoes-sh0n23hg0

    The right shamefully dog-whistled its way through the EU referendum campaign and the London mayoral election =- with Rod Liddle being a perfect example. But he and his mates are absolutely correct about Corbyn. So, not only is the Labour leader's refusal to challenge anti-Semitism morally wrong, it is also politically destructive. Once again, he is the Tory get out of jail free card.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 25
    daodao said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    There was an interesting discrepancy in Barnet between the Labour % vote share for the GLC seats and in the simultaneous mayoral election (between Bojo & Ken L) in 2012, which was just sufficient to swing the mayoral election in favour of Bojo. I suspected at the time that Jewish voters in this electoral area were sympathetic to Labour in general, but would not vote for Ken L. Although I rarely agree with TSE, he may have a point in the thread header.

    However, I would emphasise that overall Jews are a tiny minority in the UK (just 0.4% of the total population), so the borough of Barnet is very much an exception when considering whether there is such a thing as the Jewish vote in the UK.

    The Jewish population in Barnet is 20%, 50 times the UK average

    http://www.visitjewishlondon.com/uk-jewish-life/demography
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591
    edited March 25
    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,324
    daodao said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    There was an interesting discrepancy in Barnet between the Labour % vote share for the GLC seats and in the simultaneous mayoral election (between Bojo & Ken L) in 2012, which was just sufficient to swing the mayoral election in favour of Bojo. I suspected at the time that Jewish voters in this electoral area were sympathetic to Labour in general, but would not vote for Ken L. Although I rarely agree with TSE, he may have a point in the thread header.

    However, I would emphasise that overall Jews are a tiny minority in the UK (just 0.4% of the total population), so the borough of Barnet is very much an exception when considering whether there is such a thing as the Jewish vote in the UK.

    And of course theirs is not a bloc vote. It is a highly heterogeneous group.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 312
    Is it time to accept that Corbyn is a great campaigner but is never destined to be pm. It is almost as if he is trying to lose the next election. I think you are right Barnet is a potential Tory hold as I think the young will stay at home.

    On a potential pm maybe worth looking at Ruth Davidson again. She is fighting for our fish back and can bake nice cakes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,021
    daodao said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    There was an interesting discrepancy in Barnet between the Labour % vote share for the GLC seats and in the simultaneous mayoral election (between Bojo & Ken L) in 2012, which was just sufficient to swing the mayoral election in favour of Bojo. I suspected at the time that Jewish voters in this electoral area were sympathetic to Labour in general, but would not vote for Ken L. Although I rarely agree with TSE, he may have a point in the thread header.

    However, I would emphasise that overall Jews are a tiny minority in the UK (just 0.4% of the total population), so the borough of Barnet is very much an exception when considering whether there is such a thing as the Jewish vote in the UK.

    The idea of blocks of voters defined like this is in any case a gross simplification. It may be true to a degree of the ultra-orthodox, but these voters are interested in other issues. They are driven by economic issues, work related issues, Brexit, austerity, and a host of other more local issues such as housing, roads, bins and other local stuff equivalent to the Sheffield tree felling. Identity politics only goes so far, as people have overlapping multiple identities.

    I suspect the swing to Labour will be a little smaller than elsewhere in London, but not by much.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,188

    Gadfly said:

    Rod Liddle's take on Corbyn in today's Times (£)...

    "Nothing proves Jeremy Corbyn is anti-semitic — just everything he says and does"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/nothing-proves-jeremy-corbyn-is-anti-semitic-just-everything-he-says-anddoes-sh0n23hg0

    The right shamefully dog-whistled its way through the EU referendum campaign and the London mayoral election =- with Rod Liddle being a perfect example. But he and his mates are absolutely correct about Corbyn. So, not only is the Labour leader's refusal to challenge anti-Semitism morally wrong, it is also politically destructive. Once again, he is the Tory get out of jail free card.

    Just as the hard left don’t care about anti-Semitism, the Leavers don’t care about their xenophobic lies. Both get annoyed when you point out their blind spots. Neither are going to do anything about dealing with them.

    What does that mean? It means that neither will lose much support because camps are too entrenched. And both are capping their support by entrenching their opponents.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,067

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591
    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    Seems a very good response
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,623
    daodao said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    There was an interesting discrepancy in Barnet between the Labour % vote share for the GLC seats and in the simultaneous mayoral election (between Bojo & Ken L) in 2012, which was just sufficient to swing the mayoral election in favour of Bojo. I suspected at the time that Jewish voters in this electoral area were sympathetic to Labour in general, but would not vote for Ken L. Although I rarely agree with TSE, he may have a point in the thread header.

    However, I would emphasise that overall Jews are a tiny minority in the UK (just 0.4% of the total population), so the borough of Barnet is very much an exception when considering whether there is such a thing as the Jewish vote in the UK.

    How is Jewish defined? For example, I know a lot of non-religious Jews who would self-identify as Jewish, but do not practise, are married to gentiles and beyond bar mitzvahs would never go near a synagogue. My guess is that overall such people outnumber religious Jews in the UK and that quite a few of them are concentrated in North London (the eponymous North London intellectuals, to cite a dog-whistle from the recent past) constituencies beyond Barnet. Up to now, they will have largely voted Labour. I am not so sure these days, though.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,609
    daodao said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    There was an interesting discrepancy in Barnet between the Labour % vote share for the GLC seats and in the simultaneous mayoral election (between Bojo & Ken L) in 2012, which was just sufficient to swing the mayoral election in favour of Bojo. I suspected at the time that Jewish voters in this electoral area were sympathetic to Labour in general, but would not vote for Ken L. Although I rarely agree with TSE, he may have a point in the thread header.

    However, I would emphasise that overall Jews are a tiny minority in the UK (just 0.4% of the total population), so the borough of Barnet is very much an exception when considering whether there is such a thing as the Jewish vote in the UK.

    That’s an insightful comment on the motivations to vote for or against the actual candidate, rather than for or against higher motives.

    If you’re right, it may be that the Jewish populations will happily vote for a Jewish or non-Jewish Labour candidate for the local council, so long as that candidate himself or herself isn’t tainted with the issues that have affected others higher up in the party.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,623

    Gadfly said:

    Rod Liddle's take on Corbyn in today's Times (£)...

    "Nothing proves Jeremy Corbyn is anti-semitic — just everything he says and does"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/nothing-proves-jeremy-corbyn-is-anti-semitic-just-everything-he-says-anddoes-sh0n23hg0

    The right shamefully dog-whistled its way through the EU referendum campaign and the London mayoral election =- with Rod Liddle being a perfect example. But he and his mates are absolutely correct about Corbyn. So, not only is the Labour leader's refusal to challenge anti-Semitism morally wrong, it is also politically destructive. Once again, he is the Tory get out of jail free card.

    Just as the hard left don’t care about anti-Semitism, the Leavers don’t care about their xenophobic lies. Both get annoyed when you point out their blind spots. Neither are going to do anything about dealing with them.

    What does that mean? It means that neither will lose much support because camps are too entrenched. And both are capping their support by entrenching their opponents.

    I suspect that the far left's history of hanging out with anti-Semites and Jew-baiters is only now becoming more widely known. I do think it will cost Labour support in some of the more middle-class, anti-Brexit constituencies where the party did well in 2017.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 25

    Is it time to accept that Corbyn is a great campaigner but is never destined to be pm. It is almost as if he is trying to lose the next election. I think you are right Barnet is a potential Tory hold as I think the young will stay at home.

    On a potential pm maybe worth looking at Ruth Davidson again. She is fighting for our fish back and can bake nice cakes.

    Yes the 30 seats Corbyn gained at the 2017 general election was not that different to the 20 seats Kinnock gained at the 1987 general election. Both those gains were enough to enable the two leaders to stay on and fight 1 more general election.

    Yet in 1992 Kinnock lost narrowly despite being the favourite to become PM. Like Corbyn he was a great campaigner but in the end a majority of voters could not see him in No 10. Corbyn will be hoping history does not repeat itself and the Tories scrape home again
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,101
    Mr Starmer’s certainly annoying all the right people:

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,101
    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    One view:

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,019
    There were nevertheless swings to Labour, and Labour doesn't need that much of a swing in the local elections. The lead ignores the demographic (and housing tenure) change, affecting most London Boroughs, which in Barnet includes the steady decrease in the Jewish identifying population through out-migration from London, a high-ish death rate and relatively low birth rate, and assimilation.

    If Labour doesn't take the Borough I would expect this to be part of a wider disappointment for the party, rather than down to local demographics.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591

    Mr Starmer’s certainly annoying all the right people:

    I read the comment section in the Guardian following Owen Smith's resignation and the comments can only be described as outrage and betrayal by labour supporters, many hitting out hard at Corbyn.

    It has always been said that Brexit will split the conservative party but we are now seeing real divisions in labour, probably worse than the present position in the conservative party
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,188

    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    One view:

    One nut-nut bigging up another nut-nut.

    Carole Cadwalladr has a story with awkward facts and questions to answer for the Leave campaign. So far all Leave have provided in response is ad hominem and provable lies.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,623

    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    One view:



    There’s a surprise :-D

    This story is going absolutely nowhere, though. There’s no-one in any position of power or influence to take it forward. And there’s no hook to grab the attention of anyone outside the political bubble.

  • daodaodaodao Posts: 600

    daodao said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    There was an interesting discrepancy in Barnet between the Labour % vote share for the GLC seats and in the simultaneous mayoral election (between Bojo & Ken L) in 2012, which was just sufficient to swing the mayoral election in favour of Bojo. I suspected at the time that Jewish voters in this electoral area were sympathetic to Labour in general, but would not vote for Ken L. Although I rarely agree with TSE, he may have a point in the thread header.

    However, I would emphasise that overall Jews are a tiny minority in the UK (just 0.4% of the total population), so the borough of Barnet is very much an exception when considering whether there is such a thing as the Jewish vote in the UK.

    And of course theirs is not a bloc vote. It is a highly heterogeneous group.
    True in general, but if a particular candidate/party is clearly hostile to a specific group, members of that group will tend to vote en masse for the opposing candidate/party best placed to win, as was the case in Barnet in the 2012 London mayoral election, and may occur in Barnet in the council elections in May 2018. In the case of religious groups, this is often encouraged from the pulpit.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 606

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    In a parallel universe somewhere, a Brexiteer still smarting from a 52:48 loss of the referendum reads the news that the remain campaign bombarded 7m voters with personalised messages target with doubtfully acquired personal data and funded with allegedly illegal spending... no worry, he declares, it’s just a bubble story.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591
    edited March 25

    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    One view:

    One nut-nut bigging up another nut-nut.

    Carole Cadwalladr has a story with awkward facts and questions to answer for the Leave campaign. So far all Leave have provided in response is ad hominem and provable lies.
    Two sides to every story and this one is going nowhere
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    edited March 25
    HYUFD - An obvious difference is that Corbyn only needs to gain a handful of seats in order for the Tories to be out of government.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591
    JWisemann said:

    An obvious difference is that Corbyn only needs to gain a handful of seats in order for the Tories to be out of government.

    Just not going to happen
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037

    JWisemann said:

    An obvious difference is that Corbyn only needs to gain a handful of seats in order for the Tories to be out of government.

    Just not going to happen
    Brave prediction. You really are the Comical Ali of PB Tories.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591
    Rexel56 said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    In a parallel universe somewhere, a Brexiteer still smarting from a 52:48 loss of the referendum reads the news that the remain campaign bombarded 7m voters with personalised messages target with doubtfully acquired personal data and funded with allegedly illegal spending... no worry, he declares, it’s just a bubble story.
    But it is a non story
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 600

    Gadfly said:

    Rod Liddle's take on Corbyn in today's Times (£)...

    "Nothing proves Jeremy Corbyn is anti-semitic — just everything he says and does"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/nothing-proves-jeremy-corbyn-is-anti-semitic-just-everything-he-says-anddoes-sh0n23hg0

    The right shamefully dog-whistled its way through the EU referendum campaign and the London mayoral election =- with Rod Liddle being a perfect example. But he and his mates are absolutely correct about Corbyn. So, not only is the Labour leader's refusal to challenge anti-Semitism morally wrong, it is also politically destructive. Once again, he is the Tory get out of jail free card.

    Just as the hard left don’t care about anti-Semitism, the Leavers don’t care about their xenophobic lies. Both get annoyed when you point out their blind spots. Neither are going to do anything about dealing with them.

    What does that mean? It means that neither will lose much support because camps are too entrenched. And both are capping their support by entrenching their opponents.

    I suspect that the far left's history of hanging out with anti-Semites and Jew-baiters is only now becoming more widely known. I do think it will cost Labour support in some of the more middle-class, anti-Brexit constituencies where the party did well in 2017.

    Taking a hostile view of Jews and Israel is not a vote-loser in general. It is likely to help the Labour party gain votes in most areas, with Barnet being one of the few exceptions. While not openly expressed, as it would now be non-PC, such views are just as widely held among the well-to-do as the working classes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,545

    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    One view:



    There’s a surprise :-D

    This story is going absolutely nowhere, though. There’s no-one in any position of power or influence to take it forward. And there’s no hook to grab the attention of anyone outside the political bubble.

    The argument that the remain campaign was dodgy adds to the case to rerun the vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591
    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    An obvious difference is that Corbyn only needs to gain a handful of seats in order for the Tories to be out of government.

    Just not going to happen
    Brave prediction. You really are the Comical Ali of PB Tories.
    Insults are the mark of a lost argument
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,275

    One nut-nut bigging up another nut-nut.

    Carole Cadwalladr has a story with awkward facts and questions to answer for the Leave campaign. So far all Leave have provided in response is ad hominem and provable lies.

    Isabel Oakeshott claims to be a journalist. I await her story with interest.

    I am sure it will be as well researched and corroborated as pig-gate...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,188

    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    One view:

    One nut-nut bigging up another nut-nut.

    Carole Cadwalladr has a story with awkward facts and questions to answer for the Leave campaign. So far all Leave have provided in response is ad hominem and provable lies.
    Two sides to every story and this one is going nowhere
    Oh this story will make no difference now. The Observer could have Boris Johnson on film taking money from Vladimir Putin in return for a commitment to abolish democracy and Leavers wouldn’t care because Brexit.

    But sooner or later those who wish Brexit to be a success are going to need to find a way of reaching out to those who remain sceptical. Right now, they’re bellyflopping.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 25
    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD - An obvious difference is that Corbyn only needs to gain a handful of seats in order for the Tories to be out of government.

    If Corbyn gains the 42 seats Kinnock did in 1992 he would be on 304 seats, still 22 short of an overall majority which means he could be PM yes but only with SNP confidence and supply.

    Kinnock also had a big SDP/Alliance vote to squeeze in 1992, they got 23% in 1987, while Corbyn will have a far smaller LD vote to squeeze at the next general election as the LDs only got 7% in 2017.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039

    Is it time to accept that Corbyn is a great campaigner but is never destined to be pm. It is almost as if he is trying to lose the next election. I think you are right Barnet is a potential Tory hold as I think the young will stay at home.

    On a potential pm maybe worth looking at Ruth Davidson again. She is fighting for our fish back and can bake nice cakes.

    This just has to be rebutted, you must be a halfwitted dullard to come up with drivel like this. Davidson has been hiding for 6 months , her ugly mush only pops up when she has a tame interview set up that she hopes can help her get a seat down south. She has done and will never do anything re Scottish fishing.
    She is a puppet for Westminster and has done hee haw to help Scotland. I have more chance of being pope than the useless loser has of being PM.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591

    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    One view:

    One nut-nut bigging up another nut-nut.

    Carole Cadwalladr has a story with awkward facts and questions to answer for the Leave campaign. So far all Leave have provided in response is ad hominem and provable lies.
    Two sides to every story and this one is going nowhere
    Oh this story will make no difference now. The Observer could have Boris Johnson on film taking money from Vladimir Putin in return for a commitment to abolish democracy and Leavers wouldn’t care because Brexit.

    But sooner or later those who wish Brexit to be a success are going to need to find a way of reaching out to those who remain sceptical. Right now, they’re bellyflopping.
    I remain sceptical on Brexit but we are in a position where it needs to happen. Once we are out of the EU those who want to re-join need to make a case for it
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,977
    I did think Davis sounded under the weather.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,037
    On topic, I think this obviously manufactured anti-semitism storm redux will have just as much effect as when it was wheeled out like clockwork just before every other post-corbyn election by his enemies in the far-right media and their quisling collaborators on Labour’s ultra-Blairite right, i.e. next to nothing. Its just a sign of the desperate situation his opponents now find themselves in that this the best theyve got.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,623
    daodao said:

    Gadfly said:

    Rod Liddle's take on Corbyn in today's Times (£)...

    "Nothing proves Jeremy Corbyn is anti-semitic — just everything he says and does"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/nothing-proves-jeremy-corbyn-is-anti-semitic-just-everything-he-says-anddoes-sh0n23hg0

    The right shamefully dog-whistled its way through the EU referendum campaign and the London mayoral election =- with Rod Liddle being a perfect example. But he and his mates are absolutely correct about Corbyn. So, not only is the Labour leader's refusal to challenge anti-Semitism morally wrong, it is also politically destructive. Once again, he is the Tory get out of jail free card.

    Just as the hard left don’t care about anti-Semitism, the Leavers don’t care about their xenophobic lies. Both get annoyed when you point out their blind spots. Neither are going to do anything about dealing with them.

    What does that mean? It means that neither will lose much support because camps are too entrenched. And both are capping their support by entrenching their opponents.

    I suspect that the far left's history of hanging out with anti-Semites and Jew-baiters is only now becoming more widely known. I do think it will cost Labour support in some of the more middle-class, anti-Brexit constituencies where the party did well in 2017.

    Taking a hostile view of Jews and Israel is not a vote-loser in general. It is likely to help the Labour party gain votes in most areas, with Barnet being one of the few exceptions. While not openly expressed, as it would now be non-PC, such views are just as widely held among the well-to-do as the working classes.

    Generally speaking, I agree - especially with regards to Israel. But Labour won a few seats in unexpected places by not very much and are also close in a number of others. In these, little things can make a big difference.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039

    PeterC said:

    For conspiracy followers real bust up between Cadwalladr and Oakshott on Marr - do not know too much about this bubble story but Cadwallader seems to have an anti Brexit agenda

    I gather it is the Brexiteers' Brexiteer versus the Remoaners' Remoaner.
    One view:



    There’s a surprise :-D

    This story is going absolutely nowhere, though. There’s no-one in any position of power or influence to take it forward. And there’s no hook to grab the attention of anyone outside the political bubble.

    all sides have issues with their duplicity and cheating being exposed, they will prefer silence to putting their heads above the parapet.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,591

    I did think Davis sounded under the weather.

    He did look unwell to be fair
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,966
    Alastair Meeks: 'But sooner or later those who wish Brexit to be a success are going to need to find a way of reaching out to those who remain sceptical.'

    That boat sailed away some time ago ... If I can't be a citizen of Europe, I will proudly stand for the 'citizen of nowhere' anthem.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    daodao said:

    daodao said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories do hold Barnet it will indeed be down to the Jewish vote.

    At the last general election the Tories were fractionally ahead across all the Barnet wards which was why they held all 3 parliamentary seats in the borough despite the swing against them

    There was an interesting discrepancy in Barnet between the Labour % vote share for the GLC seats and in the simultaneous mayoral election (between Bojo & Ken L) in 2012, which was just sufficient to swing the mayoral election in favour of Bojo. I suspected at the time that Jewish voters in this electoral area were sympathetic to Labour in general, but would not vote for Ken L. Although I rarely agree with TSE, he may have a point in the thread header.

    However, I would emphasise that overall Jews are a tiny minority in the UK (just 0.4% of the total population), so the borough of Barnet is very much an exception when considering whether there is such a thing as the Jewish vote in the UK.

    And of course theirs is not a bloc vote. It is a highly heterogeneous group.
    True in general, but if a particular candidate/party is clearly hostile to a specific group, members of that group will tend to vote en masse for the opposing candidate/party best placed to win, as was the case in Barnet in the 2012 London mayoral election, and may occur in Barnet in the council elections in May 2018. In the case of religious groups, this is often encouraged from the pulpit.
    The fact that the Conservative candidate was Brian Coleman costs the Conservatives thousands of votes in the Assembly.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,623
    Scott_P said:
    More significantly, didn't Davis say that no hard border between NI and the RoI means no cameras? If so, that's a pretty big statement and seems to kill of a technological solution to the current impasse.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    edited March 25
    I'd put Labour's chances at 60% in Barnet, but no higher.

    Across London as a whole, there was a swing of 4.5% to Labour between 2014 and 2017. There was no swing in Barnet, suggesting the Conservative vote here is very solid.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039

    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    An obvious difference is that Corbyn only needs to gain a handful of seats in order for the Tories to be out of government.

    Just not going to happen
    Brave prediction. You really are the Comical Ali of PB Tories.
    Insults are the mark of a lost argument
    Morning G, Not at all , sometimes you have to tell people as it is and only way to get it registered is by some shock tactics, otherwise it does not get through.
    It can also be amusing though not always, always good to have a bit of banter included when topic is boring old politics.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039

    I did think Davis sounded under the weather.

    He did look unwell to be fair
    He should be in that bucket.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,977

    Scott_P said:
    More significantly, didn't Davis say that no hard border between NI and the RoI means no cameras? If so, that's a pretty big statement and seems to kill of a technological solution to the current impasse.
    He also said we're going to be an independent coastal state. Brexit will not be UK-wide.
This discussion has been closed.