May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust
I've been predicting that for ages - as I said last year, there is no sensible path for the Tories to go from "we have a wonderful Brexit deal" to "we're gonna sack the woman who got it". That said, I think that conditions are optimal for May when there's a sense of crisis AND the Brexit talks are going OK. In more normal times, post-Brexit, I wonder.
Health. Always a great excuse, particularly when it's at least partly true.
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
snip
Coopers day has gone, though I could see her back on the Front Bench. I quite like Thornberry, but have a soft spot for Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips too. The latter two have the nessecary firebrand oratory and roots in swing regions.
Jess Phillips would be a great PM.
I also like Jess Philips, although she’s not the Corbynistas favourite person to say the least. I also like Angela Rayner, I find her backstory really inspiring. I have to say though, I’m not the greatest fan of Chris Leslie. He seems to be someone who is unhappy if anyone other than a massive Blairite is leading Labour.
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
I doubt I'd ever vote for a Cooper led Labour party, but she's the voice in it that I find most convincing. I used to dislike her when she seemed some of a Brownite stooge, but I expect my view of her was tainted by my view of him.
I've really warmed to her, and Ed, over the last couple of years, and I think they would be a solid couple to restore Labour's credibility. I'm aware this change in feeling may be influenced by their lack of enthusiasm for Corbyn.
I've never found Umunna at all convincing. I think he'd be a weak Labour leader.
I'm a tory who's glad we're leaving the EU, so unlikely to be a trusted advisor for Labour folk
Of all the centrists, I like Umunna the most, although I agree with you that I don’t think he’d be a great leader. Someone to bring back into the shadow cabinet though. I agree on Ed - I voted for Labour back when he was leader in 2015, and as time goes on my opinion of him only gets better and better. Unfortunately I don’t think he would appeal to the public - 2015 kind of proved that - he’s another that I think would be great in the shadow cabinet.
Umunna would be a disastrous leader. He doesn't have the backbone for the fight. Plus he is scared of what will be revealed about his past.
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
That’s a bit below the belt.
True though - Brown the only non- trim PM for over 40 years - and he wasn’t elected.
If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
Bareing in mind how porky we are as a nation of lardarses, I can see where you are going. If only thin people could vote we would have had a Remain landslide!
The voters deep down are shallow -Cameron was well turned out and had a nice smile. Ditto Tony.
Scruffs like Foot, Brown and Corbyn all lost elections.
There is some truth to that, but Jezz now dresses smartly, while Mays clunky jewelry and migraine inducing outfits are not ones with mass appeal. I have always thought that such interesting clothes are particularly popular with mediocraties who inwardly fear their inner dullness.
He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.
Didn't hurt Jez.
The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices. I don’t have anything against Cooper per se, but I just feel very uninspired by her centrist politics. I feel like Cooper’s time to run was 2010. I remember thinking in 2015 that she was the one to lead Labour, in part because of how terrible the other leadership candidates were. Now looking back, her leadership campaign was pretty lacklustre and doesn’t exactly make me that she’d make a great leader. I have to say I have warmed to Sadiq Khan though, ever since that Mayoral campaign. Prior to that, I wasn’t much of a fan.
Coopers day has gone, though I could see her back on the Front Bench. I quite like Thornberry, but have a soft spot for Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips too. The latter two have the nessecary firebrand oratory and roots in swing regions.
Jess Phillips would be a great PM. @dixiedean : Jess Phillips would have me voting Tory. JC could only turn water into wine!
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983,
People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
snip
Coopers day has gone, though I could see her back on the Front Bench. I quite like Thornberry, but have a soft spot for Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips too. The latter two have the nessecary firebrand oratory and roots in swing regions.
Jess Phillips would be a great PM.
I also like Jess Philips, although she’s not the Corbynistas favourite person to say the least. I also like Angela Rayner, I find her backstory really inspiring. I have to say though, I’m not the greatest fan of Chris Leslie. He seems to be someone who is unhappy if anyone other than a massive Blairite is leading Labour.
Rayner's backstory is utterly meaningless as qualification for high office. She has yet to demonstrate any policy or presentational flair. She might improve given 10-15 years - but she is not close to being ready.
Philips just jumps on the outrage bandwagon wherever it is heading. She doesn't always think before she speaks. She would be a nightmare anywhere near high office. Far better suited to being a stroppy backbencher than a disciplined minister or leader.
Putting Brexit to one side, we haven't had a recession since 2009 so the chance of one cropping up before 2022 is pretty high. That would change things considerably.
Recessions happen:
1. When an economy overheats and brakes need applying; 2. When there is a credit crunch and the lack of money supply stifles activity; 3. When some external shock hits the economy.
(1) is theoretically possible given employment rates but inflation remains lowish, as does growth. The chances of much higher interest rates is surely very low.
(2) is very unlikely, at least from domestic sources, as banks are more tightly regulated than pre-2008 and are in any case only just loosening the purse strings;
(3) is the big risk, tied in with Brexit itself - though the possibility of something going badly wrong in China, for example, can't be wholly dismissed. But if the UK can strike a reasonable transition deal, then a Brexit-induced recession is unlikely too.
All in all, short of some world crisis, we should be clear for a little while longer yet.
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
I doubt I'd ever vote for a Cooper led Labour party, but she's the voice in it that I find most convincing. I used to dislike her when she seemed some of a Brownite stooge, but I expect my view of her was tainted by my view of him.
I've really warmed to her, and Ed, over the last couple of years, and I think they would be a solid couple to restore Labour's credibility. I'm aware this change in feeling may be influenced by their lack of enthusiasm for Corbyn.
I've never found Umunna at all convincing. I think he'd be a weak Labour leader.
I'm a tory who's glad we're leaving the EU, so unlikely to be a trusted advisor for Labour folk
snip
Umunna would be a disastrous leader. He doesn't have the backbone for the fight. Plus he is scared of what will be revealed about his past.
I remember that being rumoured around the time he withdrew, although his line was that he was concerned about the impact it would have on his family if he was leader. Not having a backbone does seem to be thing with Labour centrists, I have to say. David Miliband in 2009 was just the first sign....
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
Putting Brexit to one side, we haven't had a recession since 2009 so the chance of one cropping up before 2022 is pretty high. That would change things considerably.
Recessions happen:
1. When an economy overheats and brakes need applying; 2. When there is a credit crunch and the lack of money supply stifles activity; 3. When some external shock hits the economy.
(1) is theoretically possible given employment rates but inflation remains lowish, as does growth. The chances of much higher interest rates is surely very low.
(2) is very unlikely, at least from domestic sources, as banks are more tightly regulated than pre-2008 and are in any case only just loosening the purse strings;
(3) is the big risk, tied in with Brexit itself - though the possibility of something going badly wrong in China, for example, can't be wholly dismissed. But if the UK can strike a reasonable transition deal, then a Brexit-induced recession is unlikely too.
All in all, short of some world crisis, we should be clear for a little while longer yet.
I remember that being rumoured around the time he withdrew, although his line was that he was concerned about the impact it would have on his family if he was leader. Not having a backbone does seem to be thing with Labour centrists, I have to say. David Miliband in 2009 was just the first sign....
I won't repeat the rumours that I have heard about him - but they certainly would have an impact on his family if they came out.
He never appears totally trustworthy or worthy of respect. Just too oily for my tastes.
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
Well yes. Her attitude towards sex workers and trans people shows she is the very opposite of a Corbynite. Only HER kind of victims count. But I agree, she is utterly unsuited for office. A curtain twitching Roundhead.
Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.
"Better" could just mean "a better overall package", even if she isn't any better at general campaigning. And a lot more thought will go in to the policy offering. Don't forget the last election was supposed to be first and foremost about increasing the majority to deliver Brexit. Which explained the lack of detailed background policy content. Then when they thought they were heading for landslide they started suggesting electoral losing policies "in the national long term interest".
Who is to say that the Tory manifesto won't be every bit as crap next time around ?
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
It is so often the case that only the right type of victims count.
He spent the last campaign defending his IRA links.
Didn't hurt Jez.
The Orange Order did not organise a demonstration outside parliament attended by many MPs, prompting Jezza to write a grovelling letter of faux apology
Fenians - or Catholics - would never be seen in a chapel! They go to mass in a church - and any self respecting anti Fenian would know that.
Thanks for your expert view.
'The word chapel is in particularly common usage in the United Kingdom, and even more so in Wales, for Nonconformist places of worship; and in Scotland and Ireland for Roman Catholic churches.'
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
Well yes. Her attitude towards sex workers and trans people shows she is the very opposite of a Corbynite. Only HER kind of victims count. But I agree, she is utterly unsuited for office.
I have to say, I don’t agree with her re trans people. A lot of the feminists that I’ve agreed with on other things - Sarah Ditum, Victoria Smith etc - have been a bit disappointing for me on this issue. What has she said re sex workers?
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
I'm always skeptical of such polls. Maybe they are right, but even for people with a decent profile we don't really know how their leader ship will be defined, how well it will go. Take this Hunt talk - he seems like he'd do ok maybe, but who he is as Health Secretary will not be the same as him as PM, bbc it might be that once he can flourish in the top job he would poll better than if we asked the question now. Or he might do worse.
I think there’s a decent chance May leads the Tories into the next election. She’ll have quite the CV:
Brexit (transition) Brexit (end state) Growing economy Low unemployment Growing real wages Sustained increase in NHS spending High housebuilding Foreign policy credibility
As an admirer whose hopes were dashed at 10pm on 8th June 2017, I would like her to redeem herself. The media would love the rematch narrative, and it would play in her favour.
It will have been around 13 years since the last recession in 2022. It's quite a reach to assume the economic cycle won't have turned by then.
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
That’s a bit below the belt.
True though - Brown the only non- trim PM for over 40 years - and he wasn’t elected.
If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
Bareing in mind how porky we are as a nation of lardarses, I can see where you are going. If only thin people could vote we would have had a Remain landslide!
I have put back on the 2 stone I had lost prior to the Brexit vote. Based on that rate of change Brexit will kill me pretty quick, which some people would probably love.
Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.
I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
A realistic chance of all that coming to pass?
There are promising signs on three of the four. Promoting a talented bench is the one there has been little action on.
Getting a decent Brexit de.
Here in Epping Forest we are getting 11 000 new homes under the Local Plan and if the Council had not agreed that on time, against LD and Residents' opposition, the Government would have increased that number to 20,000. It is actually the LDs who are most often the leading NIMBYs in the Home Counties
Well quite about the LD's. However, here we have a Council who got elected promising to rip up the Local Plan and won't have a new one till 2021 at the earliest. This is the 2nd Plan proposed, passed and discarded at Election time. LD's, Labour. Now it is Tories turn. So far we have had words from Javid. Unless he is prepared to overrule a Conservative Council there will be no new houses actually built before the next GE. I do understand all parties will play it for local popularity, but Central govt needs to get tough, even if it means alienating its own supporters.
Javid is now moving towards overruling even Conservative Councils if they do not meet the targets central government meets for housebuilding
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
That’s a bit below the belt.
True though - Brown the only non- trim PM for over 40 years - and he wasn’t elected.
If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
Bareing in mind how porky we are as a nation of lardarses, I can see where you are going. If only thin people could vote we would have had a Remain landslide!
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
I'm always skeptical of such polls. Maybe they are right, but even for people with a decent profile we don't really know how their leader ship will be defined, how well it will go. Take this Hunt talk - he seems like he'd do ok maybe, but who he is as Health Secretary will not be the same as him as PM, bbc it might be that once he can flourish in the top job he would poll better than if we asked the question now. Or he might do worse.
Yes but they often give a good indication eg Blair and Cameron easily polled best of the 1994 Labour and 2005 Tory hopefuls, Major matched Heseltine in 1990 in trial polls and both led Kinnock after Thatcher had fallen behind, Ed Miliband polled worse than his brother in 2010 etc
May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust
I've been predicting that for ages - as I said last year, there is no sensible path for the Tories to go from "we have a wonderful Brexit deal" to "we're gonna sack the woman who got it". That said, I think that conditions are optimal for May when there's a sense of crisis AND the Brexit talks are going OK. In more normal times, post-Brexit, I wonder.
I think there is a oath to her going which is 'what a great job getting a good deal against the odds' with her then going 'it took everything out of me, and it's time for the next generation of leaders to take us into the post Brexit world'
Problem is a goodish deal may make may want to stick around, not bow out with head high and yes then sacking is difficult
I think there’s a decent chance May leads the Tories into the next election. She’ll have quite the CV:
Brexit (transition) Brexit (end state) Growing economy Low unemployment Growing real wages Sustained increase in NHS spending High housebuilding Foreign policy credibility
As an admirer whose hopes were dashed at 10pm on 8th June 2017, I would like her to redeem herself. The media would love the rematch narrative, and it would play in her favour.
It will have been around 13 years since the last recession in 2022. It's quite a reach to assume the economic cycle won't have turned by then.
Quite so. There will be achievements to crow about, but perhaps not so many. And some big potential weaknesses.
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
Well yes. Her attitude towards sex workers and trans people shows she is the very opposite of a Corbynite. Only HER kind of victims count. But I agree, she is utterly unsuited for office.
I have to say, I don’t agree with her re trans people. A lot of the feminists that I’ve agreed with on other things - Sarah Ditum, Victoria Smith etc - have been a bit disappointing for me on this issue. What has she said re sex workers?
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
I doubt I'd ever vote for a Cooper led Labour party, but she's the voice in it that I find most convincing. I used to dislike her when she seemed some of a Brownite stooge, but I expect my view of her was tainted by my view of him.
I've really warmed to her, and Ed, over the last couple of years, and I think they would be a solid couple to restore Labour's credibility. I'm aware this change in feeling may be influenced by their lack of enthusiasm for Corbyn.
I've never found Umunna at all convincing. I think he'd be a weak Labour leader.
I'm a tory who's glad we're leaving the EU, so unlikely to be a trusted advisor for Labour folk
snip
Umunna would be a disastrous leader. He doesn't have the backbone for the fight. Plus he is scared of what will be revealed about his past.
I remember that being rumoured around the time he withdrew, although his line was that he was concerned about the impact it would have on his family if he was leader. .
It was just so odd he'd apparently never considered the likely impact. I mean ed m had such an easy go of it.
Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.
I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
A realistic chance of all that coming to pass?
There are promising signs on three of the four. Promoting a talented bench is the one there has been little action on.
Getting a decent Brexit de.
Here in Epping Forest we are getting 11 000 new homes under the Local Plan and if the Council had not agreed that on time, against LD and Residents' opposition, the Government would have increased that number to 20,000. It is actually the LDs who are most often the leading NIMBYs in the Home Counties
Well quite about the LD's. However, here we have a Council who got elected promising to rip up the Local Plan and won't have a new one till 2021 at the earliest. This is the 2nd Plan proposed, passed and discarded at Election time. LD's, Labour. Now it is Tories turn. So far we have had words from Javid. Unless he is prepared to overrule a Conservative Council there will be no new houses actually built before the next GE. I do understand all parties will play it for local popularity, but Central govt needs to get tough, even if it means alienating its own supporters.
Javid is now moving towards overruling even Conservative Councils if they do not meet the targets central government meets for housebuilding
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
Well yes. Her attitude towards sex workers and trans people shows she is the very opposite of a Corbynite. Only HER kind of victims count. But I agree, she is utterly unsuited for office.
I have to say, I don’t agree with her re trans people. A lot of the feminists that I’ve agreed with on other things - Sarah Ditum, Victoria Smith etc - have been a bit disappointing for me on this issue. What has she said re sex workers?
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
Well yes. Her attitude towards sex workers and trans people shows she is the very opposite of a Corbynite. Only HER kind of victims count. But I agree, she is utterly unsuited for office.
I have to say, I don’t agree with her re trans people. A lot of the feminists that I’ve agreed with on other things - Sarah Ditum, Victoria Smith etc - have been a bit disappointing for me on this issue. What has she said re sex workers?
I have to say I sympathise with her view on this one. My thoughts on how much of a choice prostitution is for many of those in the sex industry aligns with Janice Turner’s views in a recent column she did.
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Such a 'crap' campaigner she still got the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since Thatcher in 1983, higher than Major, Hague, IDS, Howard, even Cameron ever got. Corbyn did much better than expected because he united the left and May fell from the stratosphere with a few own goals but the right was firmly behind May and indeed most of the centre too
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
Well yes. Her attitude towards sex workers and trans people shows she is the very opposite of a Corbynite. Only HER kind of victims count. But I agree, she is utterly unsuited for office.
I have to say, I don’t agree with her re trans people. A lot of the feminists that I’ve agreed with on other things - Sarah Ditum, Victoria Smith etc - have been a bit disappointing for me on this issue. What has she said re sex workers?
I suppose it is because of her longstanding opposition to grooming, trafficking and abuse of girls.
Most prostitutes are initiated into the game underage.
Utter fake news. You are supposed to be a scientist. The oft quoted "fact" comes from a survey of those underage. If you take a sample underage you will find a mean underage. The lead "scientist" responsible Melissa Farley has been disbarred by several organisations,
Initiated is a loaded term as you well know. Their is no high priest or priestess.
Most sex work takes place Online and is a rational decision taken by rational adults despite your distaste for choices.
Parroting myths does nothing to aid the abused or victimised. It harms them. Christians really ought to know better.
Sorry to have to be like this with you, as you are a poster I respect.
However, I feel really strongly about this, and believe ultimately in evidence based policy making.
The evidence (not anyones feelz or squick) is clear and unequivocal.
On topic, I'm not sure she will lead the conservatives into the next election, and I'm not sure that she should.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas.
However once Brexit is done, being a survivor is not enough. Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
Tbh, I’m not sure whether May would be better next time. There seems to be a lot being made of the fact May’s had a pretty good month. It should be remembered that May was having a pretty good time of it up until about May last year, and also looked indestructible back then.
I don't think May will lead the next campaign, but neither will she be defenestrated. I expect her to resign voluntarily once the Brexit deal is out of the way. She doesn't look to me to be someone who relishes another campaign.
If May continues to represent the UK well abroad, gets a decent Brexit deal, puts in the scale of reforms needed to get houses built and promotes a talented bench for the next leadership contest, she can retire with a strong legacy and be an elder stateswoman. What more could she want?
A realistic chance of all that coming to pass?
There are promising signs on three of the four. Promoting a talented bench is the one there has been little action on.
Getting a decent Brexit de.
Here in Epping Forest we are getting 11 000 new homes under the Local Plan and if the Council had not agreed that on time, against LD and Residents' opposition, the Government would have increased that number to 20,000. It is actually the LDs who are most often the leading NIMBYs in the Home Counties
Well quite about the LD's. However, here we have a Council who got elected promising to rip up the Local Plan and won't have a new one till 2021 at the earliest. This is the 2nd Plan proposed, passed and discarded at Election time. LD's, Labour. Now it is Tories turn. So far we have had words from Javid. Unless he is prepared to overrule a Conservative Council there will be no new houses actually built before the next GE. I do understand all parties will play it for local popularity, but Central govt needs to get tough, even if it means alienating its own supporters.
Javid is now moving towards overruling even Conservative Councils if they do not meet the targets central government meets for housebuilding
On topic, I'm not sure she will lead the conservatives into the next election, and I'm not sure that she should.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas.
However once Brexit is done, being a survivor is not enough. Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
That depends on an alternative Tory leader polling better than May, no evidence of that yet and May can say she has already won almost 60 more seats than Corbyn once, even if it was not the landslide originally hoped for. In fact the only Tory leader to have actually lost to Corbyn is Cameron who lost the 2016 local elections to him, May beat Corbyn in both the 2017 county council and general elections, we await to see if she holds that record in May
Further to my previous post, the one thing that would change this is a recession (which cannot be blamed on the government). While i hope David Herdson's prognosis is correct, I'm more inclined to go with RCS and think that this is a strong possibility.
In this circumstance May's stubborn durability is likely to play well with the electorate and I find it difficult to imagine the electorate taking a risk on Corbynomics.
If the economy remains benign, however, it seems like a very joyless boom. Infrastructure, notably health, roads and homes, is under serious stress, meaning that the country is likely to be receptive to a new (old) radical vision for the country, and I fear a repeat of 1945, albeit with a far worse prospect than Attlee.
I do not share the widespread belief that Corbyn cannot be elected.
I've gone right off Jess Phillips since she first came on the scene. There's a fine line between being down-to-earth and "plain-speaking", and just being plain unprofessional and immature, and she's on the wrong side of it IMO.
Her sniggering at debating men's issues showed she was very Corbynite in mentality: only the right type of victims count.
Well yes. Her attitude towards sex workers and trans people shows she is the very opposite of a Corbynite. Only HER kind of victims count. But I agree, she is utterly unsuited for office.
I have to say, I don’t agree with her re trans people. A lot of the feminists that I’ve agreed with on other things - Sarah Ditum, Victoria Smith etc - have been a bit disappointing for me on this issue. What has she said re sex workers?
I have to say I sympathise with her view on this one. My thoughts on how much of a choice prostitution is for many of those in the sex industry aligns with Janice Turner’s views in a recent column she did.
On that note, goodnight.
In terms of it being not much of a choice then yes,
But if it is a choice between school shoes for your child or none?
An advantage to May staying from a Labour perspective is it could bring more of the time for a change voters over to the Labour side. Although I do question how much a change of leader would counter that impulse anyway.
I like Thornberry, she has an advantage over the other left wing or Corbyn friendly likely candidates in that she has more experience but even if Corbyn goes after the next election the others (like say Rayner) will have learned a lot and if he stays on longer than that then it wouldn't be much of a factor at that point.
I do not share the widespread belief that Corbyn cannot be elected.
I don't either. He got close last time and the Momentum Sonderkommando will be even more numerous and motivated next time as it's JC's last chance.
Also, despite his long standing flirtation with Bebel's 'socialism of fools' and other moral lapses by association, he is not as annoying, boring and strange as May. That probably matters to low information voters.
To add to what I was saying earlier even if we have somewhat steady progress I can imagine Theresa May's nothing has changed clip will come in handy if it is Corbyn vs May next time.
On topic, I'm not sure she will lead the conservatives into the next election, and I'm not sure that she should.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas.
However once Brexit is done, being a survivor is not enough. Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
What would spike Corbyn is an effective end to austerity.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
I think there’s a decent chance May leads the Tories into the next election. She’ll have quite the CV:
Brexit (transition) Brexit (end state) Growing economy Low unemployment Growing real wages Sustained increase in NHS spending High housebuilding Foreign policy credibility
As an admirer whose hopes were dashed at 10pm on 8th June 2017, I would like her to redeem herself. The media would love the rematch narrative, and it would play in her favour.
It will have been around 13 years since the last recession in 2022. It's quite a reach to assume the economic cycle won't have turned by then.
Yet, there's no rule that says that it will either.
We could easily continue to have a few more years of reasonable growth.
May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust
I've been predicting that for ages - as I said last year, there is no sensible path for the Tories to go from "we have a wonderful Brexit deal" to "we're gonna sack the woman who got it". That said, I think that conditions are optimal for May when there's a sense of crisis AND the Brexit talks are going OK. In more normal times, post-Brexit, I wonder.
Health. Always a great excuse, particularly when it's at least partly true.
FWIW, I think May does want to stay the course (I'm not sure if she wants to fight GE2022, too) because she wants her legacy to be something other than just Brexit, and has a passion for domestic reform too.
It will still be about Brexit, of course. But, that's not how she sees it.
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
I don’t have anything against Cooper per se, but I just feel very uninspired by her centrist politics. I feel like Cooper’s time to run was 2010. I remember thinking in 2015 that she was the one to lead Labour, in part because of how terrible the other leadership candidates were. Now looking back, her leadership campaign was pretty lacklustre and doesn’t exactly make me that she’d make a great leader. I have to say I have warmed to Sadiq Khan though, ever since that Mayoral campaign. Prior to that, I wasn’t much of a fan.
Coopers day has gone, though I could see her back on the Front Bench. I quite like Thornberry, but have a soft spot for Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips too. The latter two have the nessecary firebrand oratory and roots in swing regions.
Jess Phillips would be a great PM.
I asked you why the other day but did t see your reply.
All I’ve seen of Jess Phillips is a willingness to be feisty on Twitter. No indication of thought on policy or vision and some alarming amber lights (e.g. wasn’t it her who dismissed any concern about male suicide?)
I think there’s a decent chance May leads the Tories into the next election. She’ll have quite the CV:
Brexit (transition) Brexit (end state) Growing economy Low unemployment Growing real wages Sustained increase in NHS spending High housebuilding Foreign policy credibility
As an admirer whose hopes were dashed at 10pm on 8th June 2017, I would like her to redeem herself. The media would love the rematch narrative, and it would play in her favour.
It will have been around 13 years since the last recession in 2022. It's quite a reach to assume the economic cycle won't have turned by then.
Yet, there's no rule that says that it will either.
We could easily continue to have a few more years of reasonable growth.
The remarkably low level of interest rates might have done something to actually break the cycle boom and bust. We have been on life support for so long, normal expectations on the economy don’t apply.
It would be somewhat ironic if the raising of interest rates to signal we were back to something like normal was to trigger another “normal” recession.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
On topic, I'm not sure she will lead the conservatives into the next election, and I'm not sure that she should.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas.
However once Brexit is done, being a survivor is not enough. Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
What would spike Corbyn is an effective end to austerity.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
“Delivering the bus” - putting a total of an extra £350m into the NHS since 2015 by 2022 would not only spike Corbyn, it would spike the Remoaners too. They mocked it could never be delivered - well, it has been..... make it clear it would be imperilled if we had to return to paying membership fees on Rejoining - bish bash bosh, jobs a good ‘un.......
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO. .
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
I don’t have anything against Cooper per se, but I just feel very uninspired by her centrist politics. I feel like Cooper’s time to run was 2010. I remember thinking in 2015 that she was the one to lead Labour, in part because of how terrible the other leadership candidates were. Now looking back, her leadership campaign was pretty lacklustre and doesn’t exactly make me that she’d make a great leader. I have to say I have warmed to Sadiq Khan though, ever since that Mayoral campaign. Prior to that, I wasn’t much of a fan.
Coopers day has gone, though I could see her back on the Front Bench. I quite like Thornberry, but have a soft spot for Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips too. The latter two have the nessecary firebrand oratory and roots in swing regions.
Jess Phillips would be a great PM.
I asked you why the other day but did t see your reply.
All I’ve seen of Jess Phillips is a willingness to be feisty on Twitter. No indication of thought on policy or vision and some alarming amber lights (e.g. wasn’t it her who dismissed any concern about male suicide?)
Why do you believe she’d be great?
(Genuine question)
She's attractive in an old fashioned lefty sort of a way. I'm with Foxy. She'd get my vote.
(Who needs policies when Brexit is taking us all to Hell in a handcart)
"It’s not like Maine is venturing into some uncharted territory,” says Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at New America who studies political reform. “It’s adapting to a system that’s been adopted successfully in cities across the country and countries around the world.”
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
No-one is more angry about the defence cuts than me. I even refused to renew my Tory party membership over it in 2011, and didn’t rejoin until 2015.
I’ve laid out my own thoughts on hire on a rise in defence spending to 2025, and I’d also support a “global security and development” budget of 3% of GDP post Brexit that would cover defence, international development, and the foreign and commonwealth office.
On topic, I'm not sure she will lead the conservatives into the next election, and I'm not sure that she should.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas.
However once Brexit is done, being a survivor is not enough. Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
What would spike Corbyn is an effective end to austerity.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
“Delivering the bus” - putting a total of an extra £350m into the NHS since 2015 by 2022 would not only spike Corbyn, it would spike the Remoaners too. They mocked it could never be delivered - well, it has been..... make it clear it would be imperilled if we had to return to paying membership fees on Rejoining - bish bash bosh, jobs a good ‘un.......
They’d probably flip to say; yes, but, not in real terms, and most of that money hasn’t come from the EU anyway.
On topic, I'm not sure she will lead the conservatives into the next election, and I'm not sure that she should.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas.
However once Brexit is done, being a survivor is not enough. Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
What would spike Corbyn is an effective end to austerity.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
“Delivering the bus” - putting a total of an extra £350m into the NHS since 2015 by 2022 would not only spike Corbyn, it would spike the Remoaners too. They mocked it could never be delivered - well, it has been..... make it clear it would be imperilled if we had to return to paying membership fees on Rejoining - bish bash bosh, jobs a good ‘un.......
They’d probably flip to say; yes, but, not in real terms, and most of that money hasn’t come from the EU anyway.
On topic, I'm not sure she will lead the conservatives into the next election, and I'm not sure that she should.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas.
However once Brexit is done, being a survivor is not enough. Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
What would spike Corbyn is an effective end to austerity.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
“Delivering the bus” - putting a total of an extra £350m into the NHS since 2015 by 2022 would not only spike Corbyn, it would spike the Remoaners too. They mocked it could never be delivered - well, it has been..... make it clear it would be imperilled if we had to return to paying membership fees on Rejoining - bish bash bosh, jobs a good ‘un.......
They’d probably flip to say; yes, but, not in real terms, and most of that money hasn’t come from the EU anyway.
But, that’d be a losing battle.
In a post Brexit battle for who has gained or lost most by far the easier task is convincing people they have lost something. It is so much more tangible
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
No-one is more angry about the defence cuts than me. I even refused to renew my Tory party membership over it in 2011, and didn’t rejoin until 2015.
I’ve laid out my own thoughts on hire on a rise in defence spending to 2025, and I’d also support a “global security and development” budget of 3% of GDP post Brexit that would cover defence, international development, and the foreign and commonwealth office.
Yeah, but you're not the defence secretary; the fireplace salesman is. So it's the actual record not your personal fantasy football defence policy that'll have to be defended and justified in the 2022 GE if the tories want to make national security a major platform.
On topic, I'm not sure she will lead the conservatives into the next election, and I'm not sure that she should.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas. . Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
What would spike Corbyn is an effective end to austerity.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
“Delivering the bus” - putting a total of an extra £350m into the NHS since 2015 by 2022 would not only spike Corbyn, it would spike the Remoaners too. They mocked it could never be delivered - well, it has been..... make it clear it would be imperilled if we had to return to paying membership fees on Rejoining - bish bash bosh, jobs a good ‘un.......
They’d probably flip to say; yes, but, not in real terms, and most of that money hasn’t come from the EU anyway.
"It’s not like Maine is venturing into some uncharted territory,” says Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at New America who studies political reform. “It’s adapting to a system that’s been adopted successfully in cities across the country and countries around the world.”
Indeed.... but that is to pass over the rather remarkable spectacle of an electorate going into battle with the legislature over the issue.
What would spike Corbyn is an effective end to austerity.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
“Delivering the bus” - putting a total of an extra £350m into the NHS since 2015 by 2022 would not only spike Corbyn, it would spike the Remoaners too. They mocked it could never be delivered - well, it has been..... make it clear it would be imperilled if we had to return to paying membership fees on Rejoining - bish bash bosh, jobs a good ‘un.......
They’d probably flip to say; yes, but, not in real terms, and most of that money hasn’t come from the EU anyway.
But, that’d be a losing battle.
They always lose the battle with the bus.
You'd think they'd learn, but no.
You'll have to elaborate on that one?
In the referendum the Remain side kept pointing out that the £350 million on the side of the bus wasn't true (it was at best highly selective, and certainly misleading, as its the gross, not net figure) - demanding apologies/retractions because the true figure was 'only' £288 million...
...to the ordinary punter both are enormous amounts of money - and for reasons best known to themselves, Remain seemed to think that it was a good idea to keep pointing out that we gave the EU enormous amounts of money (which of course we don't, as its a fraction of total government spending).
Leave were delighted when Remain kept keeping it in the news, repeatedly throwing themselves onto the bear trap.....
All I’ve seen of Jess Phillips is a willingness to be feisty on Twitter. No indication of thought on policy or vision and some alarming amber lights (e.g. wasn’t it her who dismissed any concern about male suicide?)
Why do you believe she’d be great?
Class based analysis to social problems. Unreconstructed third wave feminist. It would be like having Aunt Pol from Peaky Blinders as PM. On the morally and intellectually superior side of the defining argument de nos jours.
1) doesn’t drive the economy off a cliff (looking promising) 2) delivers borders that we control, not Brussels (not necessarily much reduced immigration - but where the UK decides what workers it wants, with what skills) 3) restricts access to UK fishing grounds - needs work yet 4) transfers some of the membership fees from Brussels to the NHS
Then she will carry a healthy majority of the population with her that Brexit was worth it. She can’t realistically announce much on 4) until any deal is concluded, as the EU is going to try and claw as much of our membership fees back in “extras” as they can. But it would be a promising start to a new era.
Will they refer themselves to these lawyers, given both have a long history of sympathy with antisemites and Formby has repeatedly made anti-Semitic (officially 'anti-Zionist') remarks? That really would put pressure on world popcorn supplies...
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
Scrapping Trident and doing something to put those trends into reverse would be positively enlightened.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
Scrapping Trident and doing something to put those trends into reverse would be positively enlightened.
A view which is shared by some surprising people, including as I recall Sir Malcolm Rifkind.
Edit - but of cours,e that's not Corbyn's policy, as he would wish to divert that money away from defence entirely.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
How many do we need?
If, for example, we had 150,000 soldiers that wouldn’t help in the case of a Russian invasion. In fact it might just encourage our politicians to get involved overseas
I’m not saying current numbers are right - I do not know - but you are coming across as “cuts= bad”
If the Conservatives are going to let Theresa May stay until Brexit is done, that begs the question when Brexit will be done. Not by next March, that’s for sure. At that point the negotiations for the long term deal will just about be starting.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
No-one is more angry about the defence cuts than me. I even refused to renew my Tory party membership over it in 2011, and didn’t rejoin until 2015.
I’ve laid out my own thoughts on hire on a rise in defence spending to 2025, and I’d also support a “global security and development” budget of 3% of GDP post Brexit that would cover defence, international development, and the foreign and commonwealth office.
Yeah, but you're not the defence secretary; the fireplace salesman is. So it's the actual record not your personal fantasy football defence policy that'll have to be defended and justified in the 2022 GE if the tories want to make national security a major platform.
There’s no need to be rude. I influence as much as I am able by writing letters and highlighting the issue.
I sense there’s a change of mood on the Tory backbenches. We’ll see what happens in the Budget and next year.
If the Conservatives are going to let Theresa May stay until Brexit is done, that begs the question when Brexit will be done. Not by next March, that’s for sure. At that point the negotiations for the long term deal will just about be starting.
look on the bright side it gives you another five years of carping and griping about something you cant influence
"It’s not like Maine is venturing into some uncharted territory,” says Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at New America who studies political reform. “It’s adapting to a system that’s been adopted successfully in cities across the country and countries around the world.”
Indeed.... but that is to pass over the rather remarkable spectacle of an electorate going into battle with the legislature over the issue.
Given the diplomatic coalition throwing out Russian spies, maybe the lesson we should draw is that persuading the world (or large parts of it) to act in unison is easier than doing the same for the Conservative Party?
Mr. Ace, aye. In my entire adult life, the armed forces have been ill-treated by every major party. Alone, they didn't have money splurged on them during Brown's profligacy (but were good enough to be joyridden into Iraq). They then weren't ring-fenced during the early Coalition years and are now still being cut.
And it's not just manpower and hardware that needs funding, it's psychological care and aftercare. A significant proportion of the homeless are ex-forces personnel. We've become rather good at teaching young men [women too but it's still predominantly men] to kill others in the theatre of war, but less good at coping with the after-effects.
[As an aside, Lindybeige has a great video on Battle Fatigue in the ancient world, comparing/contrasting it with the modern world. He makes a compelling case for things being much worse now on the basis that a soldier can never let his guard down due to IEDs and suicide bombers and snipers, whereas in the ancient times combat was primarily two large armies marching at one another, and full-blown battles were pretty rare].
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
How many do we need?
If, for example, we had 150,000 soldiers that wouldn’t help in the case of a Russian invasion. In fact it might just encourage our politicians to get involved overseas
I’m not saying current numbers are right - I do not know - but you are coming across as “cuts= bad”
The army is now at a level that is below critical mass, and little more than a gendarmerie.
And, actually, it might: if the UK could rapidly deploy and support a full equipped warfighting division to the Baltic States that would certainly help deter any Russian aggression.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
Scrapping Trident and doing something to put those trends into reverse would be positively enlightened.
The MoD estimate for a Trident replacement is about 20bn so you can probably double that for the eventual real cost. That pays for a lot of squaddies (Army), jacks (RN) and hairdressers (the other lot).
If the MoD can put aside its customary mismatch of super power pretensions but no commensurate budget to achieve it there are other far cheaper (by a factor of 10 or 20) solutions for nuclear weapons: B61mod 12 on F-35, see if the French will sell us ASMP or maybe put what is coyly described as a 'physics package' on Storm Shadow/Typhoon. Making Typhoon dual capable would also help its currently beleaguered NATO export prospects.
May Vs Corbyn next time round I think, contrary to the rest of the pbbrains trust
I've been predicting that for ages - as I said last year, there is no sensible path for the Tories to go from "we have a wonderful Brexit deal" to "we're gonna sack the woman who got it". That said, I think that conditions are optimal for May when there's a sense of crisis AND the Brexit talks are going OK. In more normal times, post-Brexit, I wonder.
Health. Always a great excuse, particularly when it's at least partly true.
If you get easily fed up, yes. Bu what is the evidence that May gives up easily?
"It’s not like Maine is venturing into some uncharted territory,” says Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at New America who studies political reform. “It’s adapting to a system that’s been adopted successfully in cities across the country and countries around the world.”
Indeed.... but that is to pass over the rather remarkable spectacle of an electorate going into battle with the legislature over the issue.
As Maine goes, so goes the Nation?
Isn't Maine rather 'different' in its electoral processes at the moment anyway? One of only two(?) states that doesn't operate winner takes all in the Electoral College.
I have been making this point for a couple of weeks now but had not thought about the market opportunities for which thanks.
The greater confidence has not just come from her handling of Salisbury/Russia but the way that she has brought forward an agreement with the EU which is both pragmatic and realistic. She achieved this by cabinet meetings, then her conciliatory speech followed up by an away day at Chequers where she seems to have got the entire cabinet to sign up on a position that she was then able to get to an agreement with the EU heads of State.
The commitment of both leavers and remainers within the cabinet is key to her current strength. As long as they all remained signed up to the deal that she makes she is pretty much untouchable. And so far they have. Is it possible that a prominent remainer or a Boris might do a strop and walk out dismantling this new found unity? Of course, but so far they haven't and the longer they don't the more committed they are.
May is going to deliver Brexit. It will be a Brexit that has elements for both sides. On the one hand we will not be in the CU or the Single Market and we are unequivocally leaving. On the other we will have a FTA, close co-operation on a range of matters, membership of certain organisations (talk of no pick and mix seems to have disappeared) and generally a constructive agreement with the EU which will involve future payments. Things could still go wrong both internally and with the EU but if May pulls this off she will be in the position to choose her own time for departure which is very likely to be after another election.
It's a remarkable turn around from the period after the election fiasco where she seemed to be suffering chronic depression and many (including me) were calling on her to go immediately.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
No-one is more angry about the defence cuts than me. I even refused to renew my Tory party membership over it in 2011, and didn’t rejoin until 2015.
I’ve laid out my own thoughts on hire on a rise in defence spending to 2025, and I’d also support a “global security and development” budget of 3% of GDP post Brexit that would cover defence, international development, and the foreign and commonwealth office.
Yeah, but you're not the defence secretary; the fireplace salesman is. So it's the actual record not your personal fantasy football defence policy that'll have to be defended and justified in the 2022 GE if the tories want to make national security a major platform.
This post made me chuckle. I'd be very interested in reading a thread header on defence and the Tories' record on it if you have the time!
I have been making this point for a couple of weeks now but had not thought about the market opportunities for which thanks.
The greater confidence has not just come from her handling of Salisbury/Russia but the way that she has brought forward an agreement with the EU which is both pragmatic and realistic. She achieved this by cabinet meetings, then her conciliatory speech followed up by an away day at Chequers where she seems to have got the entire cabinet to sign up on a position that she was then able to get to an agreement with the EU heads of State.
The commitment of both leavers and remainers within the cabinet is key to her current strength. As long as they all remained signed up to the deal that she makes she is pretty much untouchable. And so far they have. Is it possible that a prominent remainer or a Boris might do a strop and walk out dismantling this new found unity? Of course, but so far they haven't and the longer they don't the more committed they are.
May is going to deliver Brexit. It will be a Brexit that has elements for both sides. On the one hand we will not be in the CU or the Single Market and we are unequivocally leaving. On the other we will have a FTA, close co-operation on a range of matters, membership of certain organisations (talk of no pick and mix seems to have disappeared) and generally a constructive agreement with the EU which will involve future payments. Things could still go wrong both internally and with the EU but if May pulls this off she will be in the position to choose her own time for departure which is very likely to be after another election.
It's a remarkable turn around from the period after the election fiasco where she seemed to be suffering chronic depression and many (including me) were calling on her to go immediately.
I hope you are right. I still have serious doubts about May's competence and beliefs but is she does deliver in the way you suggest she will deserve an apology.
Just listening to R4 - the presenter (I can't recognise the voice - Sarah montague?) is having a ride in a Tornado, which will soon go out of service. It sounds like ALOT of fun.
Given the diplomatic coalition throwing out Russian spies, maybe the lesson we should draw is that persuading the world (or large parts of it) to act in unison is easier than doing the same for the Conservative Party?
Mr. Ace, aye. In my entire adult life, the armed forces have been ill-treated by every major party. Alone, they didn't have money splurged on them during Brown's profligacy (but were good enough to be joyridden into Iraq). They then weren't ring-fenced during the early Coalition years and are now still being cut.
And it's not just manpower and hardware that needs funding, it's psychological care and aftercare. A significant proportion of the homeless are ex-forces personnel. We've become rather good at teaching young men [women too but it's still predominantly men] to kill others in the theatre of war, but less good at coping with the after-effects.
[As an aside, Lindybeige has a great video on Battle Fatigue in the ancient world, comparing/contrasting it with the modern world. He makes a compelling case for things being much worse now on the basis that a soldier can never let his guard down due to IEDs and suicide bombers and snipers, whereas in the ancient times combat was primarily two large armies marching at one another, and full-blown battles were pretty rare].
I do like the Lindybeige videos particularly those highlighting the faults in history films.
She's still a crap campaigner and Corbyn's a great campaigner which will be crucial during a general election campaign.
o
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
Been a while since we had a fat PM. Difficult to bang on about austerity , food banks , preventative health etc at that fighting weight.
That’s a bit below the belt.
True though - Brown the only non- trim PM for over 40 years - and he wasn’t elected.
If you can’t look after yourself why trust them with the country.
Bareing in mind how porky we are as a nation of lardarses, I can see where you are going. If only thin people could vote we would have had a Remain landslide!
The voters deep down are shallow -Cameron was well turned out and had a nice smile. Ditto Tony.
Scruffs like Foot, Brown and Corbyn all lost elections.
Corbyn's not that scruffy anymore is he?
That's an excellent point. My white working class parents were strongly repelled by him when he first became Labour leader. Perfect fit with the idea some on here have that being left wing alienates traditional Labour voters. As soon as he invested in a decent suit they swung round. Polls are fine, but tailors' receipts are probably a better guide to who should you be putting your political betting stakes on.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
Scrapping Trident and doing something to put those trends into reverse would be positively enlightened.
The MoD estimate for a Trident replacement is about 20bn so you can probably double that for the eventual real cost. That pays for a lot of squaddies (Army), jacks (RN) and hairdressers (the other lot).
If the MoD can put aside its customary mismatch of super power pretensions but no commensurate budget to achieve it there are other far cheaper (by a factor of 10 or 20) solutions for nuclear weapons: B61mod 12 on F-35, see if the French will sell us ASMP or maybe put what is coyly described as a 'physics package' on Storm Shadow/Typhoon. Making Typhoon dual capable would also help its currently beleaguered NATO export prospects.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
No-one is more angry about the defence cuts than me. I even refused to renew my Tory party membership over it in 2011, and didn’t rejoin until 2015.
I’ve laid out my own thoughts on hire on a rise in defence spending to 2025, and I’d also support a “global security and development” budget of 3% of GDP post Brexit that would cover defence, international development, and the foreign and commonwealth office.
Yeah, but you're not the defence secretary; the fireplace salesman is. So it's the actual record not your personal fantasy football defence policy that'll have to be defended and justified in the 2022 GE if the tories want to make national security a major platform.
This post made me chuckle. I'd be very interested in reading a thread header on defence and the Tories' record on it if you have the time!
The Tories are to defence what Labour are to the NHS. Untouchable, and hence they can do what they want, more often than not cut.
Although as Charles has pointed out we have not had a national debate about what force we want and want to project.
To date it has been vanity to various degrees by the SoS and CDS.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
No-one is more angry about the defence cuts than me. I even refused to renew my Tory party membership over it in 2011, and didn’t rejoin until 2015.
I’ve laid out my own thoughts on hire on a rise in defence spending to 2025, and I’d also support a “global security and development” budget of 3% of GDP post Brexit that would cover defence, international development, and the foreign and commonwealth office.
Yeah, but you're not the defence secretary; the fireplace salesman is. So it's the actual record not your personal fantasy football defence policy that'll have to be defended and justified in the 2022 GE if the tories want to make national security a major platform.
This post made me chuckle. I'd be very interested in reading a thread header on defence and the Tories' record on it if you have the time!
The Tories are to defence what Labour are to the NHS. Untouchable, and hence they can do what they want, more often than not cut.
Although as Charles has pointed out we have not had a national debate about what force we want and want to project.
To date it has been vanity to various degrees by the SoS and CDS.
I am not sure the Tories are now untouchable on defence. One only has to look at the debacle over pay for attack helicopter pilots to see how much good will has evaporated over the last few years.
I have been making this point for a couple of weeks now but had not thought about the market opportunities for which thanks.
The greater confidence has not just come from her handling of Salisbury/Russia but the way that she has brought forward an agreement with the EU which is both pragmatic and realistic. She achieved this by cabinet meetings, then her conciliatory speech followed up by an away day at Chequers where she seems to have got the entire cabinet to sign up on a position that she was then able to get to an agreement with the EU heads of State.
The commitment of both leavers and remainers within the cabinet is key to her current strength. As long as they all remained signed up to the deal that she makes she is pretty much untouchable. And so far they have. Is it possible that a prominent remainer or a Boris might do a strop and walk out dismantling this new found unity? Of course, but so far they haven't and the longer they don't the more committed they are.
May is going to deliver Brexit. It will be a Brexit that has elements for both sides. On the one hand we will not be in the CU or the Single Market and we are unequivocally leaving. On the other we will have a FTA, close co-operation on a range of matters, membership of certain organisations (talk of no pick and mix seems to have disappeared) and generally a constructive agreement with the EU which will involve future payments. Things could still go wrong both internally and with the EU but if May pulls this off she will be in the position to choose her own time for departure which is very likely to be after another election.
It's a remarkable turn around from the period after the election fiasco where she seemed to be suffering chronic depression and many (including me) were calling on her to go immediately.
The events in Salisbury couldn’t have come at a better time in the EU Brexit negotiations. They were a reminder that we will still be working for the good of all Europeans, even outside the EU. And a reminder of just how damned good we are, relative to the puny efforts of the EU. We are a friend they still want - and need.
Thank you Mr. Putin, you really helped out here....
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
Scrapping Trident and doing something to put those trends into reverse would be positively enlightened.
The MoD estimate for a Trident replacement is about 20bn so you can probably double that for the eventual real cost. That pays for a lot of squaddies (Army), jacks (RN) and hairdressers (the other lot).
If the MoD can put aside its customary mismatch of super power pretensions but no commensurate budget to achieve it there are other far cheaper (by a factor of 10 or 20) solutions for nuclear weapons: B61mod 12 on F-35, see if the French will sell us ASMP or maybe put what is coyly described as a 'physics package' on Storm Shadow/Typhoon. Making Typhoon dual capable would also help its currently beleaguered NATO export prospects.
That all makes a great deal of sense.
Isn't that the LibDem approach to Trident and heading towards Corbyn's?
Just listening to R4 - the presenter (I can't recognise the voice - Sarah montague?) is having a ride in a Tornado, which will soon go out of service. It sounds like ALOT of fun.
The only time I have ever felt air sick in 20 years of continuous military aviation was in the back seat of a Bruggen wing Tornado GR1. The field of view from the back seat is very strange as one can't see forward (instruments) or down (intakes) but only above and partially to the sides. We did the strictly forbidden (for fear of upsetting the locals) but oft repeated re-enactment of Operation Chastise featuring the 60' high speed approach to the Mohne dam.
F1: Red Bull back out to 5 for the title. I think that's wrong. They were surprisingly close in qualifying and their race pace was strong (hard to be precise given the nature of the race). They also have the best driver pairing of the top dogs.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Tyndall, "This leaf is wrong" [ok, TV not film, but still].
You can't help thinking that however well May is doing in the lead up to the next election it'll still end up like one of those alzheimer jokes. She'll suddenly remember fox hunting and grammar schools
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
Tory defence personnel cuts:
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000 RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500 Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
Scrapping Trident and doing something to put those trends into reverse would be positively enlightened.
Trident is surely the main weapon we have to deter a Russian invasion?
Extra troops and planes and ships are all well and good but they would mainly be used for the benefit of NATO or military operations under the umbrella of the UN or in alliance with the USA. They would not do a great deal to add to the defence of the UK. The only actual defence they would likely make a significant difference to is the Falklands from Argentina or Gibraltar from Spain but neither Argentina nor Spain are as big a threat as Russia to us now
You can't help thinking that however well May is doing in the lead up to the next election it'll still end up like one of those alzheimer jokes. She'll suddenly remember fox hunting and grammar schools
Comments
Fenians - or Catholics - would never be seen in a chapel! They go to mass in a church - and any self respecting anti Fenian would know that.
She was garbage. You are right to mention Corbyn, he is the reason her share was as high as it was. People voting against him rather than for her.
Polling evidence before the general election suggested both Cooper and Umunna would have polled worse against May than Corbyn did with only Khan polling fractionally better
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
Many centrist Remainers on twitter believe that because they prefer a Cooper or Umunna lead Labour Party, Labour would be 20 twenty points head in the polls if one of them were leading the party. Labour need a left wing leader without Corbyn’s baggage in order to maximise their electoral appeal, IMHO.
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Thornberry is soft left but doesn’t alienate centrists. She also has great presentational style and a wonderful voice (which she credits her singing and Marlboro Light habits for)
I like Thornberry as well. I’d definitely be voting Labour if she was leader.
I find her a bit patronising. Yvette Cooper and Sadiq Khan would be my choices.
I don’t have anything against Cooper per se, but I just feel very uninspired by her centrist politics. I feel like Cooper’s time to run was 2010. I remember thinking in 2015 that she was the one to lead Labour, in part because of how terrible the other leadership candidates were. Now looking back, her leadership campaign was pretty lacklustre and doesn’t exactly make me that she’d make a great leader. I have to say I have warmed to Sadiq Khan though, ever since that Mayoral campaign. Prior to that, I wasn’t much of a fan.
Coopers day has gone, though I could see her back on the Front Bench. I quite like Thornberry, but have a soft spot for Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips too. The latter two have the nessecary firebrand oratory and roots in swing regions.
Jess Phillips would be a great PM.
@dixiedean :
Jess Phillips would have me voting Tory. JC could only turn water into wine!
Philips just jumps on the outrage bandwagon wherever it is heading. She doesn't always think before she speaks. She would be a nightmare anywhere near high office. Far better suited to being a stroppy backbencher than a disciplined minister or leader.
1. When an economy overheats and brakes need applying;
2. When there is a credit crunch and the lack of money supply stifles activity;
3. When some external shock hits the economy.
(1) is theoretically possible given employment rates but inflation remains lowish, as does growth. The chances of much higher interest rates is surely very low.
(2) is very unlikely, at least from domestic sources, as banks are more tightly regulated than pre-2008 and are in any case only just loosening the purse strings;
(3) is the big risk, tied in with Brexit itself - though the possibility of something going badly wrong in China, for example, can't be wholly dismissed. But if the UK can strike a reasonable transition deal, then a Brexit-induced recession is unlikely too.
All in all, short of some world crisis, we should be clear for a little while longer yet.
He never appears totally trustworthy or worthy of respect. Just too oily for my tastes.
Her attitude towards sex workers and trans people shows she is the very opposite of a Corbynite.
Only HER kind of victims count.
But I agree, she is utterly unsuited for office.
A curtain twitching Roundhead.
I'd put it about 50/50.
'The word chapel is in particularly common usage in the United Kingdom, and even more so in Wales, for Nonconformist places of worship; and in Scotland and Ireland for Roman Catholic churches.'
https://tinyurl.com/ybqu39mz
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/house-building-council-targets-planning-powers-new-policy-a8238616.html
Problem is a goodish deal may make may want to stick around, not bow out with head high and yes then sacking is difficult
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/labour-mp-jess-phillips-attacks-10991605
She seems to take a somewhat prurient interest in what people choose to do with their bodies.
Most prostitutes are initiated into the game underage.
On that note, goodnight.
Initiated is a loaded term as you well know. Their is no high priest or priestess.
Most sex work takes place Online and is a rational decision taken by rational adults despite your distaste for choices.
Parroting myths does nothing to aid the abused or victimised. It harms them. Christians really ought to know better.
Sorry to have to be like this with you, as you are a poster I respect.
However, I feel really strongly about this, and believe ultimately in evidence based policy making.
The evidence (not anyones feelz or squick) is clear and unequivocal.
As OGH alludes to, May's greatest asset is her durability, as evidenced in both her tenure in the Home Office and as PM. This may be a controversial view but I believe that she deserves great credit for her handling of Brexit so far, managing to steer a very narrow path that does not enrage either or both of the Moggite and Soubryite wings of her party, as well as leading the country towards a soft Brexit that most accurately reflects a 52-48 win for Leave. She has also handled the Russian situation well and clearly curries support overseas.
However once Brexit is done, being a survivor is not enough. Corbyn will repulse many voters but if there's one thing we've learned from Trump, Brexit et al, it's that populations are increasingly wilking to think the unthinkable. By 2022 a clear majority of the population will never have lived as an adult under socialism, and easily enough will know little of the IRA or the horrors of communist Russia to be able to grasp what all the fuss is about with Corbyn's affinities.
We know that Corbyn is a very strong campaigner and he will be able to get across a powerful vision. This, I believe needs to be countered by a conservative vision of its own and I do not believe- save for some some fairly unpleasant authoritarian stuff - May possesses any such vision. My hope is that May steps aside once her Brexit duties are done to allow the party to have a proper leadership contest where someone can sell their vision to the party, and then to the country, as Cameron did in the last leadership contest.
I am optimistic that she also believes, or can be persuaded, that this is the right course of action.
In this circumstance May's stubborn durability is likely to play well with the electorate and I find it difficult to imagine the electorate taking a risk on Corbynomics.
If the economy remains benign, however, it seems like a very joyless boom. Infrastructure, notably health, roads and homes, is under serious stress, meaning that the country is likely to be receptive to a new (old) radical vision for the country, and I fear a repeat of 1945, albeit with a far worse prospect than Attlee.
I do not share the widespread belief that Corbyn cannot be elected.
But if it is a choice between school shoes for your child or none?
I like Thornberry, she has an advantage over the other left wing or Corbyn friendly likely candidates in that she has more experience but even if Corbyn goes after the next election the others (like say Rayner) will have learned a lot and if he stays on longer than that then it wouldn't be much of a factor at that point.
Also, despite his long standing flirtation with Bebel's 'socialism of fools' and other moral lapses by association, he is not as annoying, boring and strange as May. That probably matters to low information voters.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/27/paul-lepage-maine-governor-ranked-choice-voting-217715
An unusual story about a politician and parasitic worms:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasty-3ft-long-parasitic-worms-are-on-the-cusp-of-being-wiped-from-the-planet/
Carter just went up in my estimation.
There is an opportunity for the Conservatives to play a balanced approach to the economy, investment in public services and keeping taxes reasonable, in GE2022, whilst contrasting with Corbyn's recklessness on the economy and national security.
We could easily continue to have a few more years of reasonable growth.
It will still be about Brexit, of course. But, that's not how she sees it.
All I’ve seen of Jess Phillips is a willingness to be feisty on Twitter. No indication of thought on policy or vision and some alarming amber lights (e.g. wasn’t it her who dismissed any concern about male suicide?)
Why do you believe she’d be great?
(Genuine question)
It would be somewhat ironic if the raising of interest rates to signal we were back to something like normal was to trigger another “normal” recession.
RN: 6,000 cut down to 29,000
RAF: 6,500 cut down to 31,500
Army: 8,000 cut down to 94,000
And that's before we get into any of the hardware and services procurement incompetence.
What does 'reckless' look like compared to that record?
(Who needs policies when Brexit is taking us all to Hell in a handcart)
I’ve laid out my own thoughts on hire on a rise in defence spending to 2025, and I’d also support a “global security and development” budget of 3% of GDP post Brexit that would cover defence, international development, and the foreign and commonwealth office.
But, that’d be a losing battle.
You'd think they'd learn, but no.
...to the ordinary punter both are enormous amounts of money - and for reasons best known to themselves, Remain seemed to think that it was a good idea to keep pointing out that we gave the EU enormous amounts of money (which of course we don't, as its a fraction of total government spending).
Leave were delighted when Remain kept keeping it in the news, repeatedly throwing themselves onto the bear trap.....
Unreconstructed third wave feminist.
It would be like having Aunt Pol from Peaky Blinders as PM.
On the morally and intellectually superior side of the defining argument de nos jours.
#jp4pm Would vote.
1) doesn’t drive the economy off a cliff (looking promising)
2) delivers borders that we control, not Brussels (not necessarily much reduced immigration - but where the UK decides what workers it wants, with what skills)
3) restricts access to UK fishing grounds - needs work yet
4) transfers some of the membership fees from Brussels to the NHS
Then she will carry a healthy majority of the population with her that Brexit was worth it. She can’t realistically announce much on 4) until any deal is concluded, as the EU is going to try and claw as much of our membership fees back in “extras” as they can. But it would be a promising start to a new era.
Edit - but of cours,e that's not Corbyn's policy, as he would wish to divert that money away from defence entirely.
If, for example, we had 150,000 soldiers that wouldn’t help in the case of a Russian invasion. In fact it might just encourage our politicians to get involved overseas
I’m not saying current numbers are right - I do not know - but you are coming across as “cuts= bad”
I sense there’s a change of mood on the Tory backbenches. We’ll see what happens in the Budget and next year.
Given the diplomatic coalition throwing out Russian spies, maybe the lesson we should draw is that persuading the world (or large parts of it) to act in unison is easier than doing the same for the Conservative Party?
Mr. Ace, aye. In my entire adult life, the armed forces have been ill-treated by every major party. Alone, they didn't have money splurged on them during Brown's profligacy (but were good enough to be joyridden into Iraq). They then weren't ring-fenced during the early Coalition years and are now still being cut.
And it's not just manpower and hardware that needs funding, it's psychological care and aftercare. A significant proportion of the homeless are ex-forces personnel. We've become rather good at teaching young men [women too but it's still predominantly men] to kill others in the theatre of war, but less good at coping with the after-effects.
[As an aside, Lindybeige has a great video on Battle Fatigue in the ancient world, comparing/contrasting it with the modern world. He makes a compelling case for things being much worse now on the basis that a soldier can never let his guard down due to IEDs and suicide bombers and snipers, whereas in the ancient times combat was primarily two large armies marching at one another, and full-blown battles were pretty rare].
And, actually, it might: if the UK could rapidly deploy and support a full equipped warfighting division to the Baltic States that would certainly help deter any Russian aggression.
If the MoD can put aside its customary mismatch of super power pretensions but no commensurate budget to achieve it there are other far cheaper (by a factor of 10 or 20) solutions for nuclear weapons: B61mod 12 on F-35, see if the French will sell us ASMP or maybe put what is coyly described as a 'physics package' on Storm Shadow/Typhoon. Making Typhoon dual capable would also help its currently beleaguered NATO export prospects.
The greater confidence has not just come from her handling of Salisbury/Russia but the way that she has brought forward an agreement with the EU which is both pragmatic and realistic. She achieved this by cabinet meetings, then her conciliatory speech followed up by an away day at Chequers where she seems to have got the entire cabinet to sign up on a position that she was then able to get to an agreement with the EU heads of State.
The commitment of both leavers and remainers within the cabinet is key to her current strength. As long as they all remained signed up to the deal that she makes she is pretty much untouchable. And so far they have. Is it possible that a prominent remainer or a Boris might do a strop and walk out dismantling this new found unity? Of course, but so far they haven't and the longer they don't the more committed they are.
May is going to deliver Brexit. It will be a Brexit that has elements for both sides. On the one hand we will not be in the CU or the Single Market and we are unequivocally leaving. On the other we will have a FTA, close co-operation on a range of matters, membership of certain organisations (talk of no pick and mix seems to have disappeared) and generally a constructive agreement with the EU which will involve future payments. Things could still go wrong both internally and with the EU but if May pulls this off she will be in the position to choose her own time for departure which is very likely to be after another election.
It's a remarkable turn around from the period after the election fiasco where she seemed to be suffering chronic depression and many (including me) were calling on her to go immediately.
I'd be very interested in reading a thread header on defence and the Tories' record on it if you have the time!
Although as Charles has pointed out we have not had a national debate about what force we want and want to project.
To date it has been vanity to various degrees by the SoS and CDS.
Thank you Mr. Putin, you really helped out here....
Edited extra bit: Mr. Tyndall, "This leaf is wrong" [ok, TV not film, but still].
Extra troops and planes and ships are all well and good but they would mainly be used for the benefit of NATO or military operations under the umbrella of the UN or in alliance with the USA. They would not do a great deal to add to the defence of the UK. The only actual defence they would likely make a significant difference to is the Falklands from Argentina or Gibraltar from Spain but neither Argentina nor Spain are as big a threat as Russia to us now