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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This March looks like being the first since GE2017 when the po

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 28 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This March looks like being the first since GE2017 when the polls edged away from Corbyn’s LAB

The above chart based on the Wikipedia table of published voting intention polls is a different way of looking at trends in political opinion.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.
  • But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,455

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    The stat above should not be misinterpreted; if Labour showed a consistent 1 point lead in February and the Tories a consistent 1 point lead in March, then the above chart would appear to show a big "swing".

    That is in fact not far off what has actually happened.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
    I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    Eh, it's still close
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,539
    "What we haven’t had yet have been any surveys taken after this week’s antisemitism row so we can’t really determine how Corbyn and Labour have been affected by that."

    How would you disentangle that from Skripal and May's diplomatic boost?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.

    Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,785
    Conclusive proof that shit floats to the top...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290
    kle4 said:

    I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.

    Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!

    It's getting ridiculous.

    Perhaps they're trolling us: they know darned well the sick loyalists will support Corbyn through thick and thin, and therefore he can do anything. ;)
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,548
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
    I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.
    A government eight years in would normally expect the most bloody of beatings at local council elections.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556
    kle4 said:

    I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.

    Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!

    There's lots of groups, many of them not visible to outsiders by searching, and I can't immediately see a way to make fb list all the groups I belong to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Also worth remembering in the 2014 local elections, the last time the wards with elections in May were up for election, Labour had a 2% lead.

    If the Tories now have a national poll lead again they could even make net gains in the local elections
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.

    Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!

    There's lots of groups, many of them not visible to outsiders by searching, and I can't immediately see a way to make fb list all the groups I belong to.
    Is that right? I'm not a Facebook user, but how odd it doesn't allow you to easily see all the (presumably a great many in Corbyn's case) groups you belong to. I suppose that gets his office somewhat off the hook as to why they haven't scrubbed him from these things.

    If it wouldn;t get leaked I'd have thought most parties would be asking all their MPs to check exactly what groups they belong to, and see what their content is like!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824

    But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.

    In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.

    The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
  • @Dura_Ace

    Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    That does look like a pattern. Hard to say whether the most recent polls should be attributed to the GE result effect petering out, or the impact of Corbyn snuggling up to Russia.

    Mr. Rabbit, quite.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
    I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597
    edited March 28
    HYUFD said:

    Also worth remembering in the 2014 local elections, the last time the wards with elections in May were up for election, Labour had a 2% lead.

    If the Tories now have a national poll lead again they could even make net gains in the local elections

    If they make net gains, it will be because they have lost 150 councillors to Labour and gained 151 from UKIP.

    I would rate net gains from Labour as extremely unlikely.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,785

    @Dura_Ace

    Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.

    Copy that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 28
    HYUFD said:

    But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.

    In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.

    The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
    What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?

    The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    edited March 28
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    On topic, the first leader to leave will be Vince Cable. He is only a caretaker leader and nothing he has said or done recently has changed that one iota.

    Hopefully there will be a contest between Jo Swinson and Layla Moran for the leadership. I know which way I would vote at the moment but obviously hustings are there for a reason.

    No doubt I will now be told the LDs are a irrelevance, both candidates (and indeed any aspiring LD leadership candidate) is or are useless, the Party's useless etc, etc so don't bother

    As a bet in a betting market, VInce Cable to be the first leader out..

    The LDs are currently an irrelevance, but they don't need to be, it isn't inevitable and personally I hope the next leader can gather some momentum at long last, I hope they can put in the effort and be rewarded. I've voted LD multiple times, and UKIP never, but I was always in favour of both gaining some more success, because I think having stronger third parties is a good thing. Presently the only stronger third party is regional, which is a shame.
    A bemused note from one involved part way down that thread ' I'm sorry. I appear to be losing it. I almost imagined someone calling for our MP to be deselected for attending a demonstration against anti-semitism'.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290
    edited March 28
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.

    Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!

    There's lots of groups, many of them not visible to outsiders by searching, and I can't immediately see a way to make fb list all the groups I belong to.
    Try the arrow at top-right (next to quick help), choose 'your groups', and then click on the groups tab?

    That seems to have all of mine, but I'm not a group-hoarder.

    Edit: ISTR that people could also add you to groups without asking you first; you just got a notification. I've no idea if my memory is correct, or if that's still the case. If it is, there's a ready-made excuse or Corbyn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
    I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
    It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    On topic, the first leader to leave will be Vince Cable. He is only a caretaker leader and nothing he has said or done recently has changed that one iota.

    Hopefully there will be a contest between Jo Swinson and Layla Moran for the leadership. I know which way I would vote at the moment but obviously hustings are there for a reason.

    No doubt I will now be told the LDs are a irrelevance, both candidates (and indeed any aspiring LD leadership candidate) is or are useless, the Party's useless etc, etc so don't bother

    As a bet in a betting market, VInce Cable to be the first leader out..

    The LDs are currently an irrelevance, but they don't need to be, it isn't inevitable and personally I hope the next leader can gather some momentum at long last, I hope they can put in the effort and be rewarded. I've voted LD multiple times, and UKIP never, but I was always in favour of both gaining some more success, because I think having stronger third parties is a good thing. Presently the only stronger third party is regional, which is a shame.
    A bemused note from one involved part way down that thread ' I'm sorry. I appear to be losing it. I almost imagined someone calling for our MP to be deselected for attending a demonstration against anti-semitism'.
    Yep, those are the sort of intellectual contortions the cult are now having to perform to keep up with the present situation.

    Orwell predicted all this decades ago.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,153
    I use an exponentially smoothed moving average (EMA) with a 10% decay rate to smooth out the noise and give greater weight to more recent polls.

    The current EMA is Con 41.2% Lab 41.4% LD 7.3% UKIP 2.9%

    Recently the Labour lead has narrowed a bit and it is currently a dead heat between the two main parties.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
    I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
    It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.
    Really? How far ahead were Labour in the 2016 locals?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    I see more stories on Guido about Corbyn and Facebook groups - why in the hell have Corbyn's office not gone through every facebook group he may ever have casually joined, and removed him from the dodgy ones they may or may not have realised previously were so dodgy? Since the first stories broke surely that would have been a task for them to do.

    Next thing is we'll find out he posts on PB!

    There's lots of groups, many of them not visible to outsiders by searching, and I can't immediately see a way to make fb list all the groups I belong to.
    Try the arrow at top-right (next to quick help), choose 'your groups', and then click on the groups tab?

    That seems to have all of mine, but I'm not a group-hoarder.

    Edit: ISTR that people could also add you to groups without asking you first; you just got a notification. I've no idea if my memory is correct, or if that's still the case. If it is, there's a ready-made excuse or Corbyn.
    I think that was stated to be the case with some,but not all, of these groups that have comeup for him.
  • The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.

    A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.

    Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.

    Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu
  • John McDonnell's been very quiet over the last few days hasn't he?

    Or have I missed him.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,554
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    On topic, the first leader to leave will be Vince Cable. He is only a caretaker leader and nothing he has said or done recently has changed that one iota.

    Hopefully there will be a contest between Jo Swinson and Layla Moran for the leadership. I know which way I would vote at the moment but obviously hustings are there for a reason.

    No doubt I will now be told the LDs are a irrelevance, both candidates (and indeed any aspiring LD leadership candidate) is or are useless, the Party's useless etc, etc so don't bother

    As a bet in a betting market, VInce Cable to be the first leader out..

    The LDs are currently an irrelevance, but they don't need to be, it isn't inevitable and personally I hope the next leader can gather some momentum at long last, I hope they can put in the effort and be rewarded. I've voted LD multiple times, and UKIP never, but I was always in favour of both gaining some more success, because I think having stronger third parties is a good thing. Presently the only stronger third party is regional, which is a shame.
    A bemused note from one involved part way down that thread ' I'm sorry. I appear to be losing it. I almost imagined someone calling for our MP to be deselected for attending a demonstration against anti-semitism'.
    Extraordinary. So appears that Jewish Voice of Lab is a Momentum front organisation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    HYUFD said:

    But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.

    In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.

    The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
    What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?

    The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
    The presence of the austerity question clearly acts as a second lens as per Bell's theorem...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Eagles, releasing him looks nuts, but for Hardwick to resign before a legal ruling is made looks like a resignation based on political rather than judicial thinking.

    I don't support the decision to release Worboys, and hope the legal ruling goes that way, but it's important that there's a line between judicial and political matters (it's one reason activist judges are so wretched. Count Dankula being found guilty of a crime for a jest some found offensive is a despicable ruling).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,001
    Scott_P said:
    chortle

    remainers want to take the word of a man they called a swivel eyed liar barely a month ago

    #desperation
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.

    In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.

    The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
    What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?

    The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
    The presence of the austerity question clearly acts as a second lens as per Bell's theorem...

    But the pollsters will tell you that's balls, they've done tests.

    Once you've done the VI questions, you can't go back change your mind in that poll.

    You don't know what's coming in the next questions either, unless the sample was psychic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    edited March 28
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
    I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
    It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.
    Really? How far ahead were Labour in the 2016 locals?
    "The BBC's Projected National Vote Share was 31% for Labour, 30% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberal Democrats and 12% for UKIP."

    1%, which corresponds to ~ 10.5% behind at the next GE according to Rod's regression.
    Of course if you add in the 2017 locals.......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.

    In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.

    The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
    What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?

    The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
    The presence of the austerity question clearly acts as a second lens as per Bell's theorem...

    But the pollsters will tell you that's balls, they've done tests.

    Once you've done the VI questions, you can't go back change your mind in that poll.

    You don't know what's coming in the next questions either, unless the sample was psychic.
    I fear my humour is too subtle ;)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    But gold standard Survation have Labour 7% ahead.

    In one poll commissioned by the GMB with leading austerity questions and before Corbyn's weak response to Salisburygate.

    The previous Survation had a 3% Labour lead
    What do those austerity questions have to do with the voting intention question?

    The VI questions were asked at the start, and used Survation's normal methodology.
    The presence of the austerity question clearly acts as a second lens as per Bell's theorem...

    But the pollsters will tell you that's balls, they've done tests.

    Once you've done the VI questions, you can't go back change your mind in that poll.

    You don't know what's coming in the next questions either, unless the sample was psychic.
    I fear my humour is too subtle ;)
    Oops, my apologies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    On topic, the first leader to leave will be Vince Cable. He is only a caretaker leader and nothing he has said or done recently has changed that one iota.

    Hopefully there will be a contest between Jo Swinson and Layla Moran for the leadership. I know which way I would vote at the moment but obviously hustings are there for a reason.

    No doubt I will now be told the LDs are a irrelevance, both candidates (and indeed any aspiring LD leadership candidate) is or are useless, the Party's useless etc, etc so don't bother

    As a bet in a betting market, VInce Cable to be the first leader out..

    The LDs are currently an irrelevance, but they don't need to be, it isn't inevitable and personally I hope the next leader can gather some momentum at long last, I hope they can put in the effort and be rewarded. I've voted LD multiple times, and UKIP never, but I was always in favour of both gaining some more success, because I think having stronger third parties is a good thing. Presently the only stronger third party is regional, which is a shame.
    A bemused note from one involved part way down that thread ' I'm sorry. I appear to be losing it. I almost imagined someone calling for our MP to be deselected for attending a demonstration against anti-semitism'.
    And in response to the thread this is a good one

    Although I see this as a distraction now, and believe that the fight against Brexit is our first and last priority, then, the NHS, I was very sad to read these posts.

    I'm sad about it, but can we not talk about this now please? (They have come back and clarified you cannot fight racism without democracy. So I guess there will be no democracy post brexit).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244
    Dura_Ace said:

    @Dura_Ace

    Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.

    Copy that.
    Look forward to it.
    (As an aside, ought we to be developing/buying more unmanned aircraft rather than the very expensive indeed F35 ?)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    Mr. Eagles, releasing him looks nuts, but for Hardwick to resign before a legal ruling is made looks like a resignation based on political rather than judicial thinking.

    I don't support the decision to release Worboys, and hope the legal ruling goes that way, but it's important that there's a line between judicial and political matters (it's one reason activist judges are so wretched. Count Dankula being found guilty of a crime for a jest some found offensive is a despicable ruling).

    Lets wait and see if Hardwick brings a constructive dismissal case about.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    You know all those meetings of the great & the good over recent weeks who’ve been looking to stop Brexit?

    This is what they’ve been working on.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597

    The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.

    A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.

    Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.

    Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu

    "The Guardian understands he was forced to quit after a meeting with the justice secretary, David Gauke."


    Gauke's a reasonable chap (and a well qualified lawyer), I wonder what was discussed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
    I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
    It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.
    Really? How far ahead were Labour in the 2016 locals?
    "The BBC's Projected National Vote Share was 31% for Labour, 30% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberal Democrats and 12% for UKIP."

    1%, which corresponds to ~ 10.5% behind at the next GE according to Rod's regression.
    Of course if you add in the 2017 locals.......
    Okay, you're right - but I think 2017 was an exception.

    It certainly feels like we're back to normal in terms of thinking about an electoral cycle - we're even talking about May v Corbyn in 2022. So I think it is worth considering what a government in waiting ought to be doing in the locals. And I think I saw you say something about Labour needing to win in Trafford if they were to look like forming the next government.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,337
    Scott_P said:
    The self-importance is something else.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 964

    Mr. Eagles, releasing him looks nuts, but for Hardwick to resign before a legal ruling is made looks like a resignation based on political rather than judicial thinking.

    I don't support the decision to release Worboys, and hope the legal ruling goes that way, but it's important that there's a line between judicial and political matters (it's one reason activist judges are so wretched. Count Dankula being found guilty of a crime for a jest some found offensive is a despicable ruling).

    Whilst I'm unsure about the guy who said 'gas the Jews?' 23 times (although I haven't watched the video) I do agree that the decision regarding Worboys shouldn't be political. One of the concepts behind justice (or at least to my mind) is the idea that everyone is held to the same set of standards (laws) regardless of who they are and how they are viewed. If the by the current standards he should be paroled then either the standards are wrong or it is the right decision. The popularity of individual decisions shouldn't be a factor.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    But things change rapidly, this time last year the Tories had very big leads, around 2% here and there aren't worth much

    Indeed so. Does anyone pay the slightest bit of attention to midterm polls anymore? I learned my lesson on that.
    We have some very important polls in just over a month's time
    I won't infer anything from them either – not sure midterm local elections contain many lessons for general elections several years hence.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
    It worked for 2015, but you'd have been at the poorhouse with that model in 2017.
    Really? How far ahead were Labour in the 2016 locals?
    "The BBC's Projected National Vote Share was 31% for Labour, 30% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberal Democrats and 12% for UKIP."

    1%, which corresponds to ~ 10.5% behind at the next GE according to Rod's regression.
    Of course if you add in the 2017 locals.......
    Okay, you're right - but I think 2017 was an exception.

    It certainly feels like we're back to normal in terms of thinking about an electoral cycle - we're even talking about May v Corbyn in 2022. So I think it is worth considering what a government in waiting ought to be doing in the locals. And I think I saw you say something about Labour needing to win in Trafford if they were to look like forming the next government.
    I'd agree the Tories are in the box seat right now - but it'd be unwise to rule Corbs and co out the race just yet ;)
    Trafford, Newc Under Lyme and London generally are all important come May.
  • The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.

    A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.

    Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.

    Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu

    "The Guardian understands he was forced to quit after a meeting with the justice secretary, David Gauke."


    Gauke's a reasonable chap (and a well qualified lawyer), I wonder what was discussed.
    I think today's Ministerial Statement will be illuminating.

    I suspect his resignation might be do something to do with the Parole Board not being aware or prepared for the storm that would inevitably follow from the release of Worboys.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.

    A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.

    Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.

    Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu

    Looks like the judgment is going through be so blistering, best if everybody can say “but that was then, under the old regime...”
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193

    The chair of the Parole Board, Nick Hardwick, has resigned ahead of a key legal ruling on a challenge to a decision to release the rapist John Worboys from jail.

    A decision in the landmark action is expected on Wednesday by three judges at the high court in London. Their announcement in the case follows a two-day hearing earlier this month.

    Lawyers for two women, who cannot be named for legal reasons, argued that the Parole Board’s decision to release the 60-year-old serial sex attacker was “irrational”, and should be overturned.

    Hardwick’s resignation came after he met the justice secretary David Gauke on Tuesday night. There will be a ministerial statement in the Commons later on Wednesday on Worboys and the Parole Board.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/28/parole-board-head-quits-ahead-of-john-worboys-ruling-nick-hardwick?CMP=twt_gu

    "The Guardian understands he was forced to quit after a meeting with the justice secretary, David Gauke."


    Gauke's a reasonable chap (and a well qualified lawyer), I wonder what was discussed.
    No-one is forced to resign. They can choose to resign. They might feel they have no option but to resign (though they'd be wrong: they can always wait to be sacked). They might be told that their best interests would be served if they resigned (which could be inappropriate). They might even be told by their employer that they should resign (which would certainly be inappropriate). But they cannot be forced to resign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    edited March 28
    Scott_P said:
    He took advice, apparently that advice was not to do it, and he will now look silly. But the important thing is there were legal/procedural issues with the release, and that's good.

    Of course, it is possible that a new board hearing, considering everything they should have and doing everything correctly, might also decide to release him I suppose. Presumably he is going to be released at some point.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    @Dura_Ace

    Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.

    Copy that.
    Look forward to it.
    (As an aside, ought we to be developing/buying more unmanned aircraft rather than the very expensive indeed F35 ?)
    As another aside, we should have pulled out of the F35 project - or at least threatened to - when the US DoD stopped funding the alternative GE/RR F136 engine.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    The self-importance is something else.
    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
    Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Pulpstar, cheers for that video. Interesting stuff. Quantum mechanics is just plain weird.
  • Pulpstar said:

    David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
    Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.

    Gauke can blame the GLD for telling him a Judicial Review would not succeed.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597
    Pulpstar said:

    David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
    Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.

    Not sure he is, or at least, if you are imagining he might lose his job, not.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    Mr. Pulpstar, cheers for that video. Interesting stuff. Quantum mechanics is just plain weird.

    Yes it apparently violates causality, but I doubt Survation asking an austerity question after VI does so in the same way.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,275

    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....

    I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.

    And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Jezziah, to annoy his girlfriend he trained her pug to raise its paw in a 'Nazi salute' when he said that phrase (gas the Jews).

    As an aside, the Nazis punished a man who taught his circus animals to do likewise.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    The self-importance is something else.
    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
    They can't.

    The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    I assume process drags out the next bit of the Worboys saga out past the local elections ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    Scott_P said:
    Scrub him from the leadership stakes....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969
    Scott_P said:
    Lol - these are the two guys that will stop Brexit ?

    They look like the SJW version of Kevin and Perry.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244
    Scott_P said:
    There's an amusing New Yorker article on the stupidity of Trump and his lawyers in dealing with this case..
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-the-stormy-daniels-story-keeps-escalating-a-thirteen-step-guide
  • @singharj: EXC Dan Jarvis will attempt to defy Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s ruling NEC to become Sheffield City Region mayor while remaining an MP. He has the backing of S. Yorks council leaders and Yorkshire and Humber Labour MPs, and they have all written to high command, I understand.

    If Labour chooses to strip Jarvis of nomination for mayor because he won’t stand down as an MP, he will not fight the election against a Labour candidate as an independent. Party now in difficult position given Jarvis backing from MPs, councils and members.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290
    Scott_P said:

    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....

    I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.

    And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...

    http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
    I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193

    Pulpstar said:

    David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
    Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.

    Gauke can blame the GLD for telling him a Judicial Review would not succeed.
    Politicians need to sense-check advice. That advice sounds overly confident (or, if it was couched as 'would probably not succeed', then Gauke would have been doing a public service to test the x% chance that it would).

    He'd be better off going now, quietly, before he's dragged out. Because there's a good chance he will be and if he is, he won't come back.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,785
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    @Dura_Ace

    Yes, we'd love to see a thread by you on Defence matters.

    Copy that.
    Look forward to it.
    (As an aside, ought we to be developing/buying more unmanned aircraft rather than the very expensive indeed F35 ?)
    There is no near or medium term UAS that can do all of the F35 missions so probably not. F35 is not an expensive platform when you consider the breadth of its capabilities. The Typhoon is the really money pit. The entire program cost is north of 40bn quid and the RAF is going to end up with 160 airframes. Do the maths; it's the second most expensive combat aircraft ever produced after B2 and the MoD takes brand new ones off the production line and reduces them to spares...

    UAS acquisitions are one part of defence policy that has been managed anomalously well. Possibly because we've bought the best available product on commercial terms and then not dicked around with it because we think we know better. Certifiable Predator B was a very wise acquisition and gives the RAF a genuinely leading edge UAS capability.

    Taranis/FCAS/nEUROn is a just a Soviet style pay people to dig holes and fill them in work creation scheme. However, that now looks like it may fall apart over Brexit so every cloud and all that...
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,337

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    The self-importance is something else.
    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
    They can't.

    The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.
    I don’t have high hopes. Last week we had a majority of peers voting for a motion that says we can’t leave Euratom until an alternative is in place, despite leaving Euratom being a function of Article 50 and EU law rather than British law. Many of our Remain-supporting legislators are so ignorant they don’t even realise which of their powers have been ceded to the EU.
  • Scott_P said:
    Scrub him from the leadership stakes....
    Phew, there's one PBer that staked £55 at 350/1 on Gauke being Mrs May's successor after I had tipped him.

    I don't I'd cope with said PBer reminding me in perpetuity that he got 350/1 when I got more modest odds.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    Scott_P said:
    Scrub him from the leadership stakes....
    Phew, there's one PBer that staked £55 at 350/1 on Gauke being Mrs May's successor after I had tipped him.

    I don't I'd cope with said PBer reminding me in perpetuity that he got 350/1 when I got more modest odds.
    Shadsy is offering 50-1 (Boosted to 60-1 for me) on him being next out the cabinet

    I was allowed £7.50 at 60-1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    Scott_P said:
    He could say he saved money by letting someone else JR the decision.

    In all seriousness, Mr Herdson is right about politicians having to sense-check advice, but it doesn't personally feel to me like a resignable instance. However, he might well do so to avoid a storm.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969
    So now the focus is only on the unofficial group "leave.eu" ?

    Some clarity on which side they were actually helping would be a start..
  • Pulpstar said:

    David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
    Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.

    Gauke can blame the GLD for telling him a Judicial Review would not succeed.
    Politicians need to sense-check advice. That advice sounds overly confident (or, if it was couched as 'would probably not succeed', then Gauke would have been doing a public service to test the x% chance that it would).

    He'd be better off going now, quietly, before he's dragged out. Because there's a good chance he will be and if he is, he won't come back.
    The secretary of state commissioned legal advice last week on the plausibility and prospect of success of a judicial review.

    On Friday, he said such a move was not feasible. Gauke told the Commons: “Having taken considered and expert legal advice I have decided that it would not be appropriate to proceed … I know this will disappoint victims in this case and members of this house given the crimes for which he has been convicted. I share those concerns.”.....

    .....Gauke said he could not reveal the detailed reasons for the legal advice not to pursue a judicial review targeting two areas of the decision. The first was whether any parole board could reasonably have taken such a decision; the second was whether there were any significant failings in the procedure.

    Gauke said: “The test for deciding if the [Parole Board] decision is unreasonable is not simply that the decision-maker could have made an alternative decision, but that no reasonable person would have come to the same conclusion.”

    He said that to challenge the decision on procedural grounds it would be necessary to show that failure to follow process had a material impact on the decision.




    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/19/john-worboys-release-government-not-pursue-judicial-review
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He could say he saved money by letting someone else JR the decision.

    In all seriousness, Mr Herdson is right about politicians having to sense-check advice, but it doesn't personally feel to me like a resignable instance. However, he might well do so to avoid a storm.
    Must be a value bet at 60-1 next out cabinet..
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Scrub him from the leadership stakes....
    Phew, there's one PBer that staked £55 at 350/1 on Gauke being Mrs May's successor after I had tipped him.

    I don't I'd cope with said PBer reminding me in perpetuity that he got 350/1 when I got more modest odds.
    Shadsy is offering 50-1 (Boosted to 60-1 for me) on him being next out the cabinet

    I was allowed £7.50 at 60-1
    Bargain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Scott_P said:

    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....

    I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.

    And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...

    http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
    I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...
    Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 28
    So about that good few weeks Mrs May had
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,275
    Pulpstar said:

    Must be a value bet at 60-1 next out cabinet..

    I'm on
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765

    Pulpstar said:

    David Gauke must surely be in trouble, having refused to judicially review the release ?
    Big scalp for Khan taking up the cause then winning.

    Gauke can blame the GLD for telling him a Judicial Review would not succeed.
    Politicians need to sense-check advice. That advice sounds overly confident (or, if it was couched as 'would probably not succeed', then Gauke would have been doing a public service to test the x% chance that it would).

    He'd be better off going now, quietly, before he's dragged out. Because there's a good chance he will be and if he is, he won't come back.
    The secretary of state commissioned legal advice last week on the plausibility and prospect of success of a judicial review.

    On Friday, he said such a move was not feasible. Gauke told the Commons: “Having taken considered and expert legal advice I have decided that it would not be appropriate to proceed … I know this will disappoint victims in this case and members of this house given the crimes for which he has been convicted. I share those concerns.”.....

    .....Gauke said he could not reveal the detailed reasons for the legal advice not to pursue a judicial review targeting two areas of the decision. The first was whether any parole board could reasonably have taken such a decision; the second was whether there were any significant failings in the procedure.

    Gauke said: “The test for deciding if the [Parole Board] decision is unreasonable is not simply that the decision-maker could have made an alternative decision, but that no reasonable person would have come to the same conclusion.”

    He said that to challenge the decision on procedural grounds it would be necessary to show that failure to follow process had a material impact on the decision.




    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/19/john-worboys-release-government-not-pursue-judicial-review
    Sounds like a pretty standard test of legal reasonableness.

    Funnily enough using that definition his decision not to proceed was probably reasonable (even if as it turns out the judges did think the original decision was flawed), but on a more casual definition fewer people are likely to think it was reasonable.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    The self-importance is something else.
    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
    They can't.

    The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.
    I don’t have high hopes. Last week we had a majority of peers voting for a motion that says we can’t leave Euratom until an alternative is in place, despite leaving Euratom being a function of Article 50 and EU law rather than British law. Many of our Remain-supporting legislators are so ignorant they don’t even realise which of their powers have been ceded to the EU.
    The Lords will certainly vote through a series of inconvenient amendments which will go through a ping-pong process.

    I confess, I haven't been following this closely, but this does feel underreported at the moment.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290

    Scott_P said:

    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....

    I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.

    And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...

    http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
    I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...
    Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.
    I have a little more time for that one, as it actually contains an arguable point. But yes, even that meme is a little tiresome.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,275

    Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.

    This one?

    image
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 18,426
    Interestingly, the court has ruled that the Mayor of London did not have standing to bring a claim:

    https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/dsd-nbv-v-parole-board-and-ors-summary.pdf
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969

    Scott_P said:

    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....

    I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.

    And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...

    http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
    I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...
    Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.
    Please refer to it by its correct title as the "Bus of Xenophobic Lies".

    Thank you.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    The self-importance is something else.
    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....
    They can't.

    The biggest trouble for the Government on this in the coming weeks is the passage of the Withdrawal Bill through the Lords.
    I don’t have high hopes. Last week we had a majority of peers voting for a motion that says we can’t leave Euratom until an alternative is in place, despite leaving Euratom being a function of Article 50 and EU law rather than British law. Many of our Remain-supporting legislators are so ignorant they don’t even realise which of their powers have been ceded to the EU.
    The Lords will certainly vote through a series of inconvenient amendments which will go through a ping-pong process.

    I confess, I haven't been following this closely, but this does feel underreported at the moment.
    I think everyone even the media got a bit bored by Brexit, at least in terms of the UK processes. We've had a break with the stuff on the transition, and of course Salisbury has taken centre ground, and the Tories have had a decent month, but we'll get back to formula soon.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,984

    Scott_P said:

    If that pair stopped Brexit, it really would be pitchforks and flaming brands.....

    I thought a link with "take back control" might trigger a few people, but the results were far better than expected.

    And if you want a pair for pitchforks and flaming brands...

    http s://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
    I'm not exactly a hardcore Brexiteer, but your repeated posting of that's becoming a little sad. It wasn't exactly funny the first time ...
    Now you've said that he'll probably repost the "this is going to be useful" one of Boris in front of the £350m poster. Again.
    I can see why you'd rather it was forgotten.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765

    So about that good few weeks Mrs May had

    Yes. Has some bad news hit her today?
This discussion has been closed.