Although I suspect they will be down to 35% by the time of the May locals.
Didn't you also "suspect" that Corbyn hadn't a hope in hell of outdoing Ed Miliband?
I will be happy to wager that Corbyn and his anti-Semitic party are now on the slide. When Lefties are gloating that nothing can harm them - not even rank vileness that other parties have booted out - they are flying way too close to the sun....
Go ahead and wager on the size of the Conservatives' lead (in the Rallings&Thrasher estimated popular vote) in the local elections, then.
YouGov had a Lab lead of 2% in early March so last YouGov poll showed a substantial move. Holding on to that and increasing the lead any further is solid progress.
Plus remember it usually takes a while for news to filter through into poll changes - Corbyn's anti-Semitism problems only hit main news headlines on Monday.
LOL, the anti-Semitism thing is not going to move any votes.
Except for the votes of Jews and the non-Jewish who care about the LOTO being tolerant of anti-Semitism.
Both on parole, both convicted of murder. I think the parole board have a lot to answer for here. At least Worboys was not able to harm anyone while out of prison, these two raped, tortured and killed an innocent woman. Anyone who made the decision to let these two animals out should be kicked off the parole board.
' It was the second time each had murdered, having both killed pensioners in the 1990s before they met in prison. Each served 13 years of a life sentence before they were released on licence. '
The unusual thing about the Worboys case is the publicity it has attracted.
I wonder if the media would have given a toss about him if he hadn't been a London taxidriver.
He would have, a serial rapist with over 100 victims is bound to get press, unless he was "Asian". Of course.
Media opinion-formers would be heavy users of London taxis I imagine - it would be a crime to which they would feel vulnerable.
Only you could read some pro-London media luvvie conspiracy into the coverage of this story. Come down here, try some of our restaurants, have a cocktail, let your hair down, let go man!
Was there a similar media and political response when the two Newcastle murderers were freed on parole ?
Last time I was in London was September, its problem these days is that it has about two million too many people.
YouGov had a Lab lead of 2% in early March so last YouGov poll showed a substantial move. Holding on to that and increasing the lead any further is solid progress.
Plus remember it usually takes a while for news to filter through into poll changes - Corbyn's anti-Semitism problems only hit main news headlines on Monday.
LOL, the anti-Semitism thing is not going to move any votes.
The poll boost is entirely because of Salisbury, I reckon - that kind of thing virtually always gives the government a lift, even John Major and Gordon Brown got temporary poll boosts when that sort of thing happened. It gives any PM a chance to look statesman/stateswoman-like, and "above party politics".
Agree re Salisbury.
Also agree that the issue of anti-Semitism itself won't move votes - however I've always believed that people vote largely on "general impression" rather than specific policies - and thus the anti-Semitism row will damage Corbyn as it creates an impression of division / chaos / unpleasantness / incompetence etc.
ie Bottom line - it all makes him look a bit less like a PM.
YouGov had a Lab lead of 2% in early March so last YouGov poll showed a substantial move. Holding on to that and increasing the lead any further is solid progress.
Plus remember it usually takes a while for news to filter through into poll changes - Corbyn's anti-Semitism problems only hit main news headlines on Monday.
You are making the classic error of seeing poll ratings as building blocks. They aren’t. They are frothy liquid that sloshes around readily whenever the public has a mild reaction to a new policy or event, or an otherwise irrational change of mind.
No problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party....they did an investigation and everything.
Its almost like ... they have no problem with it because they are ok with it.
Witness the e mail released today
What I find the most incredible is just how right on, easily offended on others behalf, non-platformy, everybody else is a bigot, so many of Jezza's most vocal supporters are.
If there was even a whiff of this kind of bigoted behaviour towards say the LGBT community, they would be protesting like mad and trying to shut down anybody involved from going about their daily commitments.
But instead they find all sorts of excuses why Jezza hanging out in 5 different Facebook groups dominated by antisemitic conspiracy nutters is nothing to do with Jezza.
YouGov had a Lab lead of 2% in early March so last YouGov poll showed a substantial move. Holding on to that and increasing the lead any further is solid progress.
Plus remember it usually takes a while for news to filter through into poll changes - Corbyn's anti-Semitism problems only hit main news headlines on Monday.
LOL, the anti-Semitism thing is not going to move any votes.
The poll boost is entirely because of Salisbury, I reckon - that kind of thing virtually always gives the government a lift, even John Major and Gordon Brown got temporary poll boosts when that sort of thing happened. It gives any PM a chance to look statesman/stateswoman-like, and "above party politics".
Actually I think it will move some votes - but probably more by depressing turnout than shifting percentages that are more easily picked up in polling.
May wouldn't have looked as 'above party politics' over Salisbury if Corbyn hadn't stuck to his anti-West lines.
Both on parole, both convicted of murder. I think the parole board have a lot to answer for here. At least Worboys was not able to harm anyone while out of prison, these two raped, tortured and killed an innocent woman. Anyone who made the decision to let these two animals out should be kicked off the parole board.
That case is a great advert for the death penalty
Without doubt, there are people who deserve to be executed. But, I don't think we'd ever reach a consensus about who does deserve to be executed. The death penalty is always going to be tokenistic and applied inconsistently.
I have a feeling the polling on Brexiters being more likely to support the death penalty is about to be frantically linked to by someone
I have no moral objection to the death penalty, but I think that the practical objections to its use in peacetime are very compelling.
Juries would be permanently deadlocked, and mistrials ahoys as no one would want to see an innocent person put to death.
The risk of killing innocent people is a big practical objection; so are the endless appeals; to my mind, the biggest is that the process of choosing which murderers are to be executed is very arbitrary.
Indeed this is eloquently expressed as to why the death penalty will never be reinstated and that there are so few jurisdictions worldwide that have reinstated it. Those of us who are morally opposed are irrelevant - the practical and fairness concerns of those who have no such moral objections are behind its irreversible global decline.
What would bring back the death penalty (if only temporarily) is major war and its aftermath. No one is going to object to the execution of traitors, or people who run concentration camps.
Isn't the government implementing the death penalty by drone and without trial on British citizens in Syria ?
Both on parole, both convicted of murder. I think the parole board have a lot to answer for here. At least Worboys was not able to harm anyone while out of prison, these two raped, tortured and killed an innocent woman. Anyone who made the decision to let these two animals out should be kicked off the parole board.
' It was the second time each had murdered, having both killed pensioners in the 1990s before they met in prison. Each served 13 years of a life sentence before they were released on licence. '
The unusual thing about the Worboys case is the publicity it has attracted.
I wonder if the media would have given a toss about him if he hadn't been a London taxidriver.
He would have, a serial rapist with over 100 victims is bound to get press, unless he was "Asian". Of course.
Media opinion-formers would be heavy users of London taxis I imagine - it would be a crime to which they would feel vulnerable.
Only you could read some pro-London media luvvie conspiracy into the coverage of this story. Come down here, try some of our restaurants, have a cocktail, let your hair down, let go man!
Was there a similar media and political response when the two Newcastle murderers were freed on parole ?
Last time I was in London was September, its problem these days is that it has about two million too many people.
You made that judgement on the basis of the ten square miles of central London you had meetings in before you scurried back up north?
Although I suspect they will be down to 35% by the time of the May locals.
He’s not the messiah. He’s a very anti-Semitic boy.
He's not anti-Semitic.
He's like one of those people who just isn't aware of things outside his comfort zone.
He just failed to learn his lesson in 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 or 2017 but he is definitely going to learn it now
Both on parole, both convicted of murder. I think the parole board have a lot to answer for here. At least Worboys was not able to harm anyone while out of prison, these two raped, tortured and killed an innocent woman. Anyone who made the decision to let these two animals out should be kicked off the parole board.
That case is a great advert for the death penalty
Without doubt, there are people who deserve to be executed. But, I don't think we'd ever reach a consensus about who does deserve to be executed. The death penalty is always going to be tokenistic and applied inconsistently.
I have a feeling the polling on Brexiters being more likely to support the death penalty is about to be frantically linked to by someone
I have no moral objection to the death penalty, but I think that the practical objections to its use in peacetime are very compelling.
Juries would be permanently deadlocked, and mistrials ahoys as no one would want to see an innocent person put to death.
The risk of killing innocent people is a big practical objection; so are the endless appeals; to my mind, the biggest is that the process of choosing which murderers are to be executed is very arbitrary.
Indeed this is eloquently expressed as to why the death penalty will never be reinstated and that there are so few jurisdictions worldwide that have reinstated it. Those of us who are morally opposed are irrelevant - the practical and fairness concerns of those who have no such moral objections are behind its irreversible global decline.
What would bring back the death penalty (if only temporarily) is major war and its aftermath. No one is going to object to the execution of traitors, or people who run concentration camps.
Isn't the government implementing the death penalty by drone and without trial on British citizens in Syria ?
He did say that no one would object to the execution of traitors
Both on parole, both convicted of murder. I think the parole board have a lot to answer for here. At least Worboys was not able to harm anyone while out of prison, these two raped, tortured and killed an innocent woman. Anyone who made the decision to let these two animals out should be kicked off the parole board.
That case is a great advert for the death penalty
Without doubt, there are people who deserve to be executed. But, I don't think we'd ever reach a consensus about who does deserve to be executed. The death penalty is always going to be tokenistic and applied inconsistently.
I have a feeling the polling on Brexiters being more likely to support the death penalty is about to be frantically linked to by someone
I have no moral objection to the death penalty, but I think that the practical objections to its use in peacetime are very compelling.
Juries would be permanently deadlocked, and mistrials ahoys as no one would want to see an innocent person put to death.
The risk of killing innocent people is a big practical objection; so are the endless appeals; to my mind, the biggest is that the process of choosing which murderers are to be executed is very arbitrary.
Indeed this is eloquently expressed as to why the death penalty will never be reinstated and that there are so few jurisdictions worldwide that have reinstated it. Those of us who are morally opposed are irrelevant - the practical and fairness concerns of those who have no such moral objections are behind its irreversible global decline.
What would bring back the death penalty (if only temporarily) is major war and its aftermath. No one is going to object to the execution of traitors, or people who run concentration camps.
Isn't the government implementing the death penalty by drone and without trial on British citizens in Syria ?
May wouldn't have looked as 'above party politics' over Salisbury if Corbyn hadn't stuck to his anti-West lines.
Yes she would - no matter how much the Opposition leader agrees with the PM on matters like this, it's only the PM who actually has the power to do stuff about it, and to be seen to be "in control" of events. The Conservatives and Democrats were fully behind Blair and Bush's responses to 9/11 (at first atleast), but it was still only Blair and Bush who reaped the benefits in the polls.
YouGov had a Lab lead of 2% in early March so last YouGov poll showed a substantial move. Holding on to that and increasing the lead any further is solid progress.
Plus remember it usually takes a while for news to filter through into poll changes - Corbyn's anti-Semitism problems only hit main news headlines on Monday.
LOL, the anti-Semitism thing is not going to move any votes.
Except for the votes of Jews and the non-Jewish who care about the LOTO being tolerant of anti-Semitism.
That probably isn't that many people.
And its also possible that it attracts some extra votes from people who don't like Jews.
So all this stuff about anti-Semitism hasn't harmed Labour.
It’s firmed up the Con lead though.
What an absolute boy.
You sound like a Cybernat getting all excited about a 1% movement.
So the lead is between 1 - 7% with MOE
That's not how MOE works.
It means 1 in 20 polls will be an outlier.
Not sure I understand that
Big G: Polls (and indeed much of science) is done by assessing a small number of things and drawing a conclusion from that about a bigger number of things or a geberal rule. With the number of people who are polled, polling companies can, they think, be 95% confident that the answer they have is within 3% of reality. That is, from 19 out of 20 polls, they will be withing that 3%. But they have to accept that there is a chance that the sample they have is so unrepresentative that this is not in fact true - that's what happens on the 20th occasion out of 20. For example, in 2017, they might have sampled the statistically unusual people who were young, well educated and lived in cities and had over the 2015-2017 period gone from supporting Miliband's Labour to May's conservative party - and concluded as a result a swing to the conservatives where no such swing existed. (This is just a hypothetical example). There are always individuals who swing against the tide, and no way of knowing whether your sample is disproportionately made up of them. You can, however, say how likely it is that your sample IS representative - and polling companies generally work to 95%, or 19 in 20. (This is general two standard deviations, if you want to get mathematical).
YouGov had a Lab lead of 2% in early March so last YouGov poll showed a substantial move. Holding on to that and increasing the lead any further is solid progress.
Plus remember it usually takes a while for news to filter through into poll changes - Corbyn's anti-Semitism problems only hit main news headlines on Monday.
The exponentially smoothed moving average smooths out the MOE froth but is sensitive to underlying trends.
The big picture is that, over the last three months, the Tories have moved from 40% to 41%. Labour has stayed constant on 41%. UKIP has dropped a point from 4% to 3%. It looks as if there has been a small transfer from UKIP to Conservative.
YouGov had a Lab lead of 2% in early March so last YouGov poll showed a substantial move. Holding on to that and increasing the lead any further is solid progress.
Plus remember it usually takes a while for news to filter through into poll changes - Corbyn's anti-Semitism problems only hit main news headlines on Monday.
You are making the classic error of seeing poll ratings as building blocks. They aren’t. They are frothy liquid that sloshes around readily whenever the public has a mild reaction to a new policy or event, or an otherwise irrational change of mind.
Of course voting intention will move up and down with events, mid term polls are of limited value and anything can happen in the future.
However one mistake I think some people might be making is to say that because there was a huge swing in the last campaign we should now ignore polls pre campaign.
The last campaign was very unusual in the above regard - that doesn't mean the same might not happen again but history shows that it's not the norm.
So all this stuff about anti-Semitism hasn't harmed Labour.
It’s firmed up the Con lead though.
What an absolute boy.
You sound like a Cybernat getting all excited about a 1% movement.
So the lead is between 1 - 7% with MOE
That's not how MOE works.
It means 1 in 20 polls will be an outlier.
Not sure I understand that
Big G: Polls (and indeed much of science) is done by assessing a small number of things and drawing a conclusion from that about a bigger number of things or a geberal rule. With the number of people who are polled, polling companies can, they think, be 95% confident that the answer they have is within 3% of reality. That is, from 19 out of 20 polls, they will be withing that 3%. But they have to accept that there is a chance that the sample they have is so unrepresentative that this is not in fact true - that's what happens on the 20th occasion out of 20. For example, in 2017, they might have sampled the statistically unusual people who were young, well educated and lived in cities and had over the 2015-2017 period gone from supporting Miliband's Labour to May's conservative party - and concluded as a result a swing to the conservatives where no such swing existed. (This is just a hypothetical example). There are always individuals who swing against the tide, and no way of knowing whether your sample is disproportionately made up of them. You can, however, say how likely it is that your sample IS representative - and polling companies generally work to 95%, or 19 in 20. (This is general two standard deviations, if you want to get mathematical).
Thank you for taking the time to respond. I appreciate your explanation
Comments
Witness the e mail released today
I predict a Labour lead of 3%.
Last time I was in London was September, its problem these days is that it has about two million too many people.
Also agree that the issue of anti-Semitism itself won't move votes - however I've always believed that people vote largely on "general impression" rather than specific policies - and thus the anti-Semitism row will damage Corbyn as it creates an impression of division / chaos / unpleasantness / incompetence etc.
ie Bottom line - it all makes him look a bit less like a PM.
If there was even a whiff of this kind of bigoted behaviour towards say the LGBT community, they would be protesting like mad and trying to shut down anybody involved from going about their daily commitments.
But instead they find all sorts of excuses why Jezza hanging out in 5 different Facebook groups dominated by antisemitic conspiracy nutters is nothing to do with Jezza.
He's like one of those people who just isn't aware of things outside his comfort zone.
May wouldn't have looked as 'above party politics' over Salisbury if Corbyn hadn't stuck to his anti-West lines.
NEW THREAD
And its also possible that it attracts some extra votes from people who don't like Jews.
The big picture is that, over the last three months, the Tories have moved from 40% to 41%. Labour has stayed constant on 41%. UKIP has dropped a point from 4% to 3%. It looks as if there has been a small transfer from UKIP to Conservative.
However one mistake I think some people might be making is to say that because there was a huge swing in the last campaign we should now ignore polls pre campaign.
The last campaign was very unusual in the above regard - that doesn't mean the same might not happen again but history shows that it's not the norm.