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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57%

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 29 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

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  • E pluribus unum
  • When will I be able to buy an EU passport/citizenship?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556

    When will I be able to buy an EU passport/citizenship?

    You do realise if we go to war, you'll be impounded on the Isle of Man as a foreign national for the duration? A steep price to pay, the IoM is just like in Mindhorn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,977
    From a good thread with thoughts on Brexit:
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    When will I be able to buy an EU passport/citizenship?

    You do realise if we go to war, you'll be impounded on the Isle of Man as a foreign national for the duration? A steep price to pay, the IoM is just like in Mindhorn.
    We don't have the military capability to go to war, Trident apart, but if Trident is deployed not sure there'll be a United Kingdom left.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556

    Ishmael_Z said:

    When will I be able to buy an EU passport/citizenship?

    You do realise if we go to war, you'll be impounded on the Isle of Man as a foreign national for the duration? A steep price to pay, the IoM is just like in Mindhorn.
    We don't have the military capability to go to war, Trident apart, but if Trident is deployed not sure there'll be a United Kingdom left.
    We may have to re-take Gibraltar, and if you've gone all that way it seems silly not to annex Malta while you're there.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    It would be interesting to hear from those PBers who in the week after the referendum gave us anecdotes of people being made redundant in London.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,554
    edited March 29

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    That's a classic straw man argument. You make assertions based on your memory of what was said and then make that the core premise of your case. To say "weren't we told" is just sloppy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 29

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
  • Anyhoo the 50,000 job losses was predicted by 2020 and on the assumption of article 50 being triggered 24th June 2016.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    That's a classic straw man argument. You make assertions based on your memory of what was said and then make that the core premise of your case. To say "weren't we told" is just sloppy.
    ' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.

    “You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '

    https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    That's a classic straw man argument. You make assertions based on your memory of what was said and then make that the core premise of your case. To say "weren't we told" is just sloppy.
    https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/

    “You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”

    24.6.16

    Just frinstance.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    This sounds right to me:

    As in the previous survey, most respondents said bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, however.

    “I doubt there will be a mass migration overnight, but my guess is in 5, if not 10 years, London will be down quite a lot,” said one executive at a large U.S. bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

    “London was the only game in town, at least in Europe, and now it won’t be.”
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.

    As to London banking jobs generally I fear there will be increasing problems over the next few decades - can high cost jobs in a high cost location add enough value to compete against cheaper and 'hungrier' alternatives in a globalised and increasingly computerised world economy ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,977

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.
    Like all the economists who told the Telegraph in 2010 that the Euro would collapse within 5 years?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870
    edited March 29

    Anyhoo the 50,000 job losses was predicted by 2020 and on the assumption of article 50 being triggered 24th June 2016.

    Companies overstate job losses when they are warning against something and understate when actually doing it. The numbers will be between 5000'and 50 000.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    That's a classic straw man argument. You make assertions based on your memory of what was said and then make that the core premise of your case. To say "weren't we told" is just sloppy.
    If you want to read about someone talking bollox about financial job losses might I recommend this demolition of Vince Cable:

    https://fullfact.org/economy/10000-finance-jobs-lost-since-brexit/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,461
    FF43 said:

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    This sounds right to me:

    As in the previous survey, most respondents said bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, however.

    “I doubt there will be a mass migration overnight, but my guess is in 5, if not 10 years, London will be down quite a lot,” said one executive at a large U.S. bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

    “London was the only game in town, at least in Europe, and now it won’t be.”
    You've nailed it in terms of 'This sounds right to me'. Aside from the chance that someone has a working crystal ball any and all of these numbers are just guesses. Economic predictions are at best very poor (some would say just guessed, and I personally know of at least one instance where that's been literally true). The idea that someone can make anything other than a total guess surrounding a figure that isn't well documented and where the forces at work are unknown is poppycock.

    Of course the guess could prove to be right, but it was still a guess to start off with.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 29

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.

    As to London banking jobs generally I fear there will be increasing problems over the next few decades - can high cost jobs in a high cost location add enough value to compete against cheaper and 'hungrier' alternatives in a globalised and increasingly computerised world economy ?
    The reasons London is attractive is the strong and independent legal system/judiciary, the ease/access to finance. The lingua franca helps.

    However political and economic gravity kicks.

    UK firms have over 300,000 financial passports which shakes out to somewhere to £25-£30 billion in financial service exports to the rest of the EU.

    Lose those passporting rights and a lot of those jobs will have to relocated to inside the EU.

    We're hoping for equivalence but our industry had meetings with David Davis, DExEU, Liam Fox, and the International Trade Department, those idiots couldn't find a cup of water if you dropped them into the Atlantic Ocean.

    It pains me to say this but Michel Barnier and Germany have got a better understanding on financial services than our own government.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.
    Like all the economists who told the Telegraph in 2010 that the Euro would collapse within 5 years?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html
    So it proved.

    Likewise all those 'experts' who predicted that the Euro would lead to economic and political stability within the EU.

    I rather suspect that 'experts' have a good track record in predicting what they have a vested interest in happening.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,188

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.

    As to London banking jobs generally I fear there will be increasing problems over the next few decades - can high cost jobs in a high cost location add enough value to compete against cheaper and 'hungrier' alternatives in a globalised and increasingly computerised world economy ?
    The reasons London is attractive is the strong and independent legal system/judiciary, the ease/access to finance. The lingua franca helps.

    However political and economic gravity kicks.

    UK firms have over 300,000 financial passports which shakes out to somewhere to £25-£30 billion in financial service exports to the rest of the EU.

    Lose those passporting rights and a lot of those jobs will have to relocated to inside the EU.

    We're hoping for equivalence but our industry had meetings with David Davis, DExEU, Liam Fox, and the International Trade Department, those idiots couldn't find a cup of water if you dropped them into the Atlantic Ocean.

    It pains me to say this but Michel Barnier and Germany have got a better understanding on financial services than our own government.
    To understand London you need to understand that the City and Westminster are as far apart as New York and Washington DC.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870
    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    This sounds right to me:

    As in the previous survey, most respondents said bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, however.

    “I doubt there will be a mass migration overnight, but my guess is in 5, if not 10 years, London will be down quite a lot,” said one executive at a large U.S. bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

    “London was the only game in town, at least in Europe, and now it won’t be.”
    You've nailed it in terms of 'This sounds right to me'. Aside from the chance that someone has a working crystal ball any and all of these numbers are just guesses. Economic predictions are at best very poor (some would say just guessed, and I personally know of at least one instance where that's been literally true). The idea that someone can make anything other than a total guess surrounding a figure that isn't well documented and where the forces at work are unknown is poppycock.

    Of course the guess could prove to be right, but it was still a guess to start off with.

    However Brexit is unusual in that essentially all the known unknowns are downside. For example we know that the City of London will lose out to the EU. The question is how much. Typically a change comes with a mixture of upside and downside so you don't know whether you will end up ahead or behind. Brexit will definitely be behind and as there are lots of factors accumulating, likely by quite a bit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.

    As to London banking jobs generally I fear there will be increasing problems over the next few decades - can high cost jobs in a high cost location add enough value to compete against cheaper and 'hungrier' alternatives in a globalised and increasingly computerised world economy ?
    The reasons London is attractive is the strong and independent legal system/judiciary, the ease/access to finance. The lingua franca helps.

    However political and economic gravity kicks.

    UK firms have over 300,000 financial passports which shakes out to somewhere to £25-£30 billion in financial service exports to the rest of the EU.

    Lose those passporting rights and a lot of those jobs will have to relocated to inside the EU.

    We're hoping for equivalence but our industry had meetings with David Davis, DExEU, Liam Fox, and the International Trade Department, those idiots couldn't find a cup of water if you dropped them into the Atlantic Ocean.

    It pains me to say this but Michel Barnier and Germany have got a better understanding on financial services than our own government.
    Yet we've always been told that our 'Sir Humphreys' are the best in the world with an unlimited supply of expertise to draw upon.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,698
    Reinstated after sharing the blood libel

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/03/29/labour-quietly-reinstated-six-councillors-posted-anti-semitic/

    Told you that Labour have been quietly reinstating people


  • Yet we've always been told that our 'Sir Humphreys' are the best in the world with an unlimited supply of expertise to draw upon.

    The civil service are very understanding. It is the ministers who seem to ignore the advice/experts.

    The ministers really do believe their own spin/hype.

    The hope is they end up capitulating on financial services like they did on so many other areas of Brexit.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969
    England finally play a proper spinner and a fast bowler.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    This sounds right to me:

    As in the previous survey, most respondents said bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, however.

    “I doubt there will be a mass migration overnight, but my guess is in 5, if not 10 years, London will be down quite a lot,” said one executive at a large U.S. bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

    “London was the only game in town, at least in Europe, and now it won’t be.”
    You've nailed it in terms of 'This sounds right to me'. Aside from the chance that someone has a working crystal ball any and all of these numbers are just guesses. Economic predictions are at best very poor (some would say just guessed, and I personally know of at least one instance where that's been literally true). The idea that someone can make anything other than a total guess surrounding a figure that isn't well documented and where the forces at work are unknown is poppycock.

    Of course the guess could prove to be right, but it was still a guess to start off with.

    However Brexit is unusual in that essentially all the known unknowns are downside. For example we know that the City of London will lose out to the EU. The question is how much. Typically a change comes with a mixture of upside and downside so you don't know whether you will end up ahead or behind. Brexit will definitely be behind and as there are lots of factors accumulating, likely by quite a bit.
    Yet a 'know unknown' before the referendum was that a Leave win would lead to huge job losses.

    Its amazing to me that after the last few years that people still are willing to make 100% predictions.

    And on a betting associated site as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 29
    Ok quadruple Steve Smith's ban. What an utter knob.

    James Taylor: Steve Smith and David Warner used to mock opponents — many will feel it is cricket karma

    I was playing for England against Australia in a one-day international in Sydney and I had just been dismissed for a second-ball duck, lbw to Mitchell Starc. As I was walking off, head down, David Warner charged over and screamed abuse in my face.

    I don’t need to repeat what he said, but that story from 2015 is enough to explain why a lot of cricketers around the world have little or no sympathy after hearing Warner had been suspended for 12 months. Many of them will feel this is a classic case of cricketing karma. As soon as you get personal on the field, you will find yourself with enemies.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/cricket/james-taylor-steve-smith-and-david-warner-used-to-mock-opponents-many-will-feel-it-is-cricket-karma-a3802306.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,020

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.

    As to London banking jobs generally I fear there will be increasing problems over the next few decades - can high cost jobs in a high cost location add enough value to compete against cheaper and 'hungrier' alternatives in a globalised and increasingly computerised world economy ?
    I think that is true. No industry is immortal, even if it is a world leader and major exporter. In 1965 the British motorcycle industry ruled the world, by 1975 it was nearly extinct. All it takes is management unable to innovate, workers unwilling to modernise, and competitors making a better product and aggressively promoting it.

    I expect that the effect of Brexit will not be a bang, but a whimper. It will only be seen for what is is in retrospect. It will be not a catastrophe, just a bit crap, and a milestone in our steady decline.



  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    edited March 29

    Ok quadruple Steve Smith's ban. What an utter knob.

    James Taylor: Steve Smith and David Warner used to mock opponents — many will feel it is cricket karma

    I was playing for England against Australia in a one-day international in Sydney and I had just been dismissed for a second-ball duck, lbw to Mitchell Starc. As I was walking off, head down, David Warner charged over and screamed abuse in my face.

    I don’t need to repeat what he said, but that story from 2015 is enough to explain why a lot of cricketers around the world have little or no sympathy after hearing Warner had been suspended for 12 months. Many of them will feel this is a classic case of cricketing karma. As soon as you get personal on the field, you will find yourself with enemies.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/cricket/james-taylor-steve-smith-and-david-warner-used-to-mock-opponents-many-will-feel-it-is-cricket-karma-a3802306.html

    The way they turned the water works on today and all the BS about we need to feel for them because of their mental health....pathetic.

    Also...the pros know...it wasn't just bruiser Warner and poor naive Bancroft...

    When I played for England, it was inconceivable that anything would happen to the ball without Jimmy Anderson or Stuart Broad knowing about it. They would be on top of the fielders all the time — don’t get sweat on the ball, don’t get sun cream on it, keep one side dry.

    That is my experience of playing with some test cricketers, as a young man I often used to get more grief from my own teams bowlers than the opposition if I messed up when handling the ball.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,020
    Incidentally Die Hard is on Film4, conclusively proving that it is not a Christmas movie, but rather an Easter one. :)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419



    Yet we've always been told that our 'Sir Humphreys' are the best in the world with an unlimited supply of expertise to draw upon.

    The civil service are very understanding. It is the ministers who seem to ignore the advice/experts.

    The ministers really do believe their own spin/hype.

    The hope is they end up capitulating on financial services like they did on so many other areas of Brexit.
    Certainly politicians are full of crap but how often do they really ignore the Sir Humphreys ?

    We know that Olly Letwin did when he handed over the final millions to Kids Company but how many other specific examples are there.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,668
    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    Floater said:

    Reinstated after sharing the blood libel

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/03/29/labour-quietly-reinstated-six-councillors-posted-anti-semitic/

    Told you that Labour have been quietly reinstating people

    They aren't serious about tackling this problem. Every one of these people get a few months on the naughty step and then let back in (or in the case of Ken suspended indefinitely, which equally ridiculous given all the public statements he has made).
  • SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    1) Sorry to hear that, but trust me, it is easier to break up before it gets worse

    2) Congratulations
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Die Hard is on Film4, conclusively proving that it is not a Christmas movie, but rather an Easter one. :)

    Isn't there more chance of snow at Easter ?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,227
    Love that Matt cartoon.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,668
    Foxy said:

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.

    As to London banking jobs generally I fear there will be increasing problems over the next few decades - can high cost jobs in a high cost location add enough value to compete against cheaper and 'hungrier' alternatives in a globalised and increasingly computerised world economy ?
    I think that is true. No industry is immortal, even if it is a world leader and major exporter. In 1965 the British motorcycle industry ruled the world, by 1975 it was nearly extinct. All it takes is management unable to innovate, workers unwilling to modernise, and competitors making a better product and aggressively promoting it.

    I expect that the effect of Brexit will not be a bang, but a whimper. It will only be seen for what is is in retrospect. It will be not a catastrophe, just a bit crap, and a milestone in our steady decline.



    Or a milestone in our steady recovery since the nadir of the 1960s-70s. You haven't a clue which it is, nor do I. But history tends in my direction. Liberal Democracies which govern themselves (as much as possible) TEND to do better than the alternative.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,756
    edited March 29
    SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    On balance, that's clearly a bad week. At what point does earning more money lose its "wow factor" for you? If your psychology works anything like mine, the returns tend to diminish quite quickly once there's enough in the pot to pay for anything that you actually feel like buying. So I don't think it can outweigh point one.

    In all seriousness "Escalating cycle of emotional revenge" is not a good place to be. But (and here I am being very selfish) if only you could have made it work, you were giving some of us so much hope while it lasted...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,191
    SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    Sorry to hear about the split sean.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:


    This sounds right to me:

    As in the previous survey, most respondents said bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, however.

    “I doubt there will be a mass migration overnight, but my guess is in 5, if not 10 years, London will be down quite a lot,” said one executive at a large U.S. bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

    “London was the only game in town, at least in Europe, and now it won’t be.”

    You've nailed it in terms of 'This sounds right to me'. Aside from the chance that someone has a working crystal ball any and all of these numbers are just guesses. Economic predictions are at best very poor (some would say just guessed, and I personally know of at least one instance where that's been literally true). The idea that someone can make anything other than a total guess surrounding a figure that isn't well documented and where the forces at work are unknown is poppycock.

    Of course the guess could prove to be right, but it was still a guess to start off with.

    However Brexit is unusual in that essentially all the known unknowns are downside. For example we know that the City of London will lose out to the EU. The question is how much. Typically a change comes with a mixture of upside and downside so you don't know whether you will end up ahead or behind. Brexit will definitely be behind and as there are lots of factors accumulating, likely by quite a bit.
    Yet a 'know unknown' before the referendum was that a Leave win would lead to huge job losses.

    Its amazing to me that after the last few years that people still are willing to make 100% predictions.

    And on a betting associated site as well.
    If you expose your assumptions, making predictions is sensible. Better than the alternative of blind faith. FWIW most, but not all, of what I predicted about Brexit a year ago has panned out so far in quite concrete terms and in broad terms.since the referendum. This isn't clairvoyance. It's a question of being informed on the topic, somewhat sceptical and expecting people to behave the way they normally behave.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    Foxy said:

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    There will be job losses if we lose, as expected, financial passporting is lost.

    We've built the fallout shelter just waiting for the bomb to fall.

    I've worked out our plan for relocation of jobs to Germany.

    Plus those banking jobs you've linked to weren't the jobs at risk from Brexit.

    Though those jobs will likely to go even if we had Remained, the profile of retail banking has changed with less and less foot traffic into branches.
    We'll see - I'm not saying what's going to happen one way or another because I don't know.

    But one thing is for sure, namely there's many an 'expert' who has been shown to know a lot less than they thought they did.

    As to London banking jobs generally I fear there will be increasing problems over the next few decades - can high cost jobs in a high cost location add enough value to compete against cheaper and 'hungrier' alternatives in a globalised and increasingly computerised world economy ?
    I think that is true. No industry is immortal, even if it is a world leader and major exporter. In 1965 the British motorcycle industry ruled the world, by 1975 it was nearly extinct. All it takes is management unable to innovate, workers unwilling to modernise, and competitors making a better product and aggressively promoting it.

    I expect that the effect of Brexit will not be a bang, but a whimper. It will only be seen for what is is in retrospect. It will be not a catastrophe, just a bit crap, and a milestone in our steady decline.

    And while some products or people might have added value because of a specific origin eg Scottish whisky or an English butler that doesn't apply to London banking jobs.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,664
    Seems like Warner's "vice captain" meant he was actually captain but with a particular brief within that role. Smith's main sin was that he was weak and his tears are tears of realisation that he is unlikely to ever be captain in name or in fact of any other cricket team of note. Warner shouldn't play cricket of note in any capacity.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,191
    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Die Hard is on Film4, conclusively proving that it is not a Christmas movie, but rather an Easter one. :)

    Wished i watched it after the 90+ minutes i had to watch on sky tonight,bloody awful.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969
    Corbyn is having his slow motion car crash. Really is popcorn time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,020

    SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    On balance, that's clearly a bad week. At what point does earning more money lose its "wow factor" for you? If your psychology works anything like mine, the returns tend to diminish quite quickly once there's enough in the pot to pay for anything that you actually feel like buying. So I don't think it can outweigh point one.

    In all seriousness "Escalating cycle of emotional revenge" is not a good place to be. But (and here I am being very selfish) if only you could have made it work, you were giving some of us so much hope while it lasted...
    I would agree. After a certain point, money is just a way of keeping score. Sorry to hear the news.

    I have been married 28 years, and there have certainly been bad patches, but I am glad I stuck it out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974

    Seems like Warner's "vice captain" meant he was actually captain but with a particular brief within that role. Smith's main sin was that he was weak and his tears are tears of realisation that he is unlikely to ever be captain in name or in fact of any other cricket team of note. Warner shouldn't play cricket of note in any capacity.
    Unfortunately, it is more than likely for Warner it might actually turn out extremely well...he could easily do a KP / Gayle and become a gun for hire in T20 around the world.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    I wonder how many millions this is going to cost Smith even aside from the ruined reputation.

    He clearly didn't do any sort of risk / reward analysis beforehand.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 29
    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974

    I wonder how many millions this is going to cost Smith even aside from the ruined reputation.

    He clearly didn't do any sort of risk / reward analysis beforehand.
    I don't think Smith is exactly the sharpest tool in the box.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,699
    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Die Hard is on Film4, conclusively proving that it is not a Christmas movie, but rather an Easter one. :)

    https://www.empireonline.com/movies/features/empire-30-best-christmas-movies/

    Arguably the greatest action movie ever made, and now the greatest Christmas movie ever made, too. Bruce Willis’ John McClane may seem like an unlikely Santa Claus – he doesn’t have enough hair for one – but what better Christmas present is there than the gift of terrorists getting taken down as they try to take Nakatomi Plaza hostage during a Christmas party in order to carry out an elaborate theft? Not for Empire readers the cutesy Christmas trees of other Christmas movies, or the sight of people in ill-advised knitwear drinking eggnog. For you guys, nothing says deck the halls like jumping off a roof tied to a fire hose, and nothing says season of goodwill like a machine gun. Ho ho ho.
  • New Zealand win the toss and will bowl, so will England be all out before lunch again?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836
    edited March 29
    SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    If you made the royalties in the marriage she clearly inspired you... give 50% to the taxman and half of what’s left to your wife...

    Oh sorry, were we supposed to be cheering you up :wink:

    (ps I am sorry to hear about the split. Life gets shitty sometimes - as I know too well - so good luck and soldier on)
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,668

    SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    On balance, that's clearly a bad week. At what point does earning more money lose its "wow factor" for you? If your psychology works anything like mine, the returns tend to diminish quite quickly once there's enough in the pot to pay for anything that you actually feel like buying. So I don't think it can outweigh point one.

    In all seriousness "Escalating cycle of emotional revenge" is not a good place to be. But (and here I am being very selfish) if only you could have made it work, you were giving some of us so much hope while it lasted...
    Honest feelings? - it's a mixed week, tending slightly to the good. Bizarrely.

    My wife first decided to chuck me in January. It was genuine grief. I felt like an Aztec priest had ripped out my heart every morning for a week. We reconciled, but I think that was the foundational rupture. Our problems have descended from this self detonation.

    This time (and this time the decision is crucially rather more mutual) it feels much more Meh.

    In fact the best analogy is herpes. The first time you get herpes its OMG, the pain, what's happening to my penis, jesus, the fever, HELP, the second time it's oh yes, that again, that hurts, but here's some ointment, ouch, ah yes, mmm, What's for lunch?


    Such is the human heart.

    Whatever the case, the eternal truth is proved: money can't make you happy, but, boy, it can make unhappiness MUCH more bearable.

    And thanks for the advice, pb-ers!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870
    SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    It's a what it is week, I guess. It looks like the first is what matters to you.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    Sorry to hear your bad news.

    Make sure you remember all the good times you had together but probably better to end things now and remain on good terms than let things escalate negatively to mutual damage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    TGOHF said:

    Corbyn is having his slow motion car crash. Really is popcorn time.

    I've always thought that an odd expression. Obviously the damage is still massive if the crash is at full speed and we just watch it in slow motion, but it could be read as, in effect, a car crash happening at slow speeds, which will leave you pretty much unharmed apart from some dents, scrapes and bruises.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Weren't we told that there would be over 50,000 London banking jobs lost within months of a Leave vote ?

    ' The number of finance jobs due to be moved because of Brexit by March 2019 has shrunk substantially in the past six months, with fewer moves out of Britain now expected.

    According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the majority of UK-based workers in international finance, the number of jobs to be moved out of Britain - or created overseas - has dropped by half to 5,000 roles. '

    http://www.cityam.com/283078/finance-jobs-expected-moved-out-uk-due-brexit-now-half

    As a comparison this website is currently advertising over 16,000 banking jobs:

    https://www.indeed.co.uk/Banking-jobs

    This sounds right to me:

    As in the previous survey, most respondents said bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, however.

    “I doubt there will be a mass migration overnight, but my guess is in 5, if not 10 years, London will be down quite a lot,” said one executive at a large U.S. bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

    “London was the only game in town, at least in Europe, and now it won’t be.”
    You've nailed it in terms of 'This sounds right to me'. Aside from the chance that someone has a working crystal ball any and all of these numbers are just guesses. Economic predictions are at best very poor (some would say just guessed, and I personally know of at least one instance where that's been literally true). The idea that someone can make anything other than a total guess surrounding a figure that isn't well documented and where the forces at work are unknown is poppycock.

    Of course the guess could prove to be right, but it was still a guess to start off with.

    However Brexit is unusual in that essentially all the known unknowns are downside. For example we know that the City of London will lose out to the EU. The question is how much. Typically a change comes with a mixture of upside and downside so you don't know whether you will end up ahead or behind. Brexit will definitely be behind and as there are lots of factors accumulating, likely by quite a bit.
    Yet a 'know unknown' before the referendum was that a Leave win would lead to huge job losses.

    Its amazing to me that after the last few years that people still are willing to make 100% predictions.

    And on a betting associated site as well.
    And to think that being an expert on something implies an ability to predict the future of that thing. A true touchstone for invincible stupidity.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,191
    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Isn't that a good front page for Corbyn ?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,664

    Seems like Warner's "vice captain" meant he was actually captain but with a particular brief within that role. Smith's main sin was that he was weak and his tears are tears of realisation that he is unlikely to ever be captain in name or in fact of any other cricket team of note. Warner shouldn't play cricket of note in any capacity.
    Unfortunately, it is more than likely for Warner it might actually turn out extremely well...he could easily do a KP / Gayle and become a gun for hire in T20 around the world.
    I do hope not. He has been/ is being outed as an obnoxious cunt and that should trump whatever cricketing skills he has. Whoever he plays for, his opponents' supporters will go after him verbally and, like most bullies, he can give it but doesn't seem able to take it.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,668

    SeanT said:

    So I've had a mixed week. I'd like PB-ers feelings as punters.

    1. I've probably broken up with my beautiful 22 year old wife, due to "musical differences", aka an escalating cycle of emotional revenge. I dearly love her, we have great sex, yet I also find her very high maintenance (no doubt she feels the same), and her family and friends annoy the fuck out of me, and also despise me (as a pervy old creep)

    2. I've just been told I made an unexpected €60,000 German royalties, my new idea is apparently "so hot" (their words not mine) HarperCollins have agreed to give me £100,000 (for books one and two) and a major TV company has made an offer on the synopsis by itself

    So I am rich and yet rueful and yet relieved and yet ruminative

    Is that a good week or a bad week?

    Oy vey and hey ho.

    Sorry to hear your bad news.

    Make sure you remember all the good times you had together but probably better to end things now and remain on good terms than let things escalate negatively to mutual damage.
    Yes, I think that is wise.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,281
    edited March 29

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Isn't that a good front page for Corbyn ?
    In the sense that it doesn’t mention him at all, yes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974

    New Zealand win the toss and will bowl, so will England be all out before lunch again?

    England have 4 genuine tail-Enders in the team...a few early wickets and it is squeaky bum time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count.
    As long as that face is not yours, it's ok.

    Also, does the story even say who has labelled them the unacceptable faces of capitalism? I imagine it is easy to label pretty much anyone as such.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,020
    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Greed is good...
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,664

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Isn't that a good front page for Corbyn ?
    Corbynistas?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969

    New Zealand win the toss and will bowl, so will England be all out before lunch again?

    England have 4 genuine tail-Enders in the team...a few early wickets and it is squeaky bum time.
    Been relying on bowlers scoring runs for too long. Better looking bowling attack.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,679

    New Zealand win the toss and will bowl, so will England be all out before lunch again?

    England have 4 genuine tail-Enders in the team...a few early wickets and it is squeaky bum time.
    Acid comment on cricinfo:

    'that means Craig Overton misses out and England will have the tail of a diplodocus.'
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,664
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Greed is good...
    Greed is god
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 964
    I just don't understand the schizophrenic attitude towards capitalism, it starts to make me question my opposition to the horse shoe theory..

    The Daily Mail is going to end up way to the left of me pretty soon and then my feelings are just going to become very confused.

    @SeanT

    Onwards and upwards, plenty more fish and other meaningless phrases :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Isn't that a good front page for Corbyn ?
    Assuming that anyone who reads the mail does do without drawing horns and a tail on Corbyn then yes
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    FF43 said:

    Anyhoo the 50,000 job losses was predicted by 2020 and on the assumption of article 50 being triggered 24th June 2016.

    Companies overstate job losses when they are warning against something and understate when actually doing it. The numbers will be between 5000'and 50 000.
    That's rather a big differential.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count.
    As long as that face is not yours, it's ok.

    Also, does the story even say who has labelled them the unacceptable faces of capitalism? I imagine it is easy to label pretty much anyone as such.
    It’s traditionally the intern I believe
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:


    This sounds right to me:

    As in the previous survey, most respondents said bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, however.

    “I doubt there will be a mass migration overnight, but my guess is in 5, if not 10 years, London will be down quite a lot,” said one executive at a large U.S. bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

    “London was the only game in town, at least in Europe, and now it won’t be.”

    You've nailed it in terms of 'This sounds right to me'. Aside from the chance that someone has a working crystal ball any and all of these numbers are just guesses. Economic predictions are at best very poor (some would say just guessed, and I personally know of at least one instance where that's been literally true). The idea that someone can make anything other than a total guess surrounding a figure that isn't well documented and where the forces at work are unknown is poppycock.

    Of course the guess could prove to be right, but it was still a guess to start off with.

    However Brexit is unusual in that essentially all the known unknowns are downside. For example we know that the City of London will lose out to the EU. The question is how much. Typically a change comes with a mixture of upside and downside so you don't know whether you will end up ahead or behind. Brexit will definitely be behind and as there are lots of factors accumulating, likely by quite a bit.
    Yet a 'know unknown' before the referendum was that a Leave win would lead to huge job losses.

    Its amazing to me that after the last few years that people still are willing to make 100% predictions.

    And on a betting associated site as well.
    If you expose your assumptions, making predictions is sensible. Better than the alternative of blind faith. FWIW most, but not all, of what I predicted about Brexit a year ago has panned out so far in quite concrete terms and in broad terms.since the referendum. This isn't clairvoyance. It's a question of being informed on the topic, somewhat sceptical and expecting people to behave the way they normally behave.
    How lucky PB is.

    All its Remainers tell us that they've been proved right by events since the referendum.

    Whereas the official Remainers from Cameron downwards were all proved wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    TGOHF said:

    New Zealand win the toss and will bowl, so will England be all out before lunch again?

    England have 4 genuine tail-Enders in the team...a few early wickets and it is squeaky bum time.
    Been relying on bowlers scoring runs for too long. Better looking bowling attack.
    I am not convinced Wood is the answer. We desperately need to find a bowler that puts the fear of god into batsman and / or a left armer. And a spinner that really turns it.

    I know Wood is quicker than he looks, but I don't think the batsman really fear him. England continually struggle that once the shine has gone, batsman have got 20 or so, they look totally ineffective.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,668
    Had drinks with a smart, lefty friend tonight. 50-something. Definitely more left than centre-left.

    He expressed absolute contempt for Corbyn ("he's either stupid or anti-Semitic, probably both") combined with an unexpected despair at Labour's long term future.

    He thinks the racist, hard left anti-Semitic wing of the party can simply never reconcile with the Blairite "mainstream". A split (or some similarly dreadful and apocalyptic rupture) is now inevitable, to his mind.

    I found it all most encouraging.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556
    edited March 29

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Isn't that a good front page for Corbyn ?
    In the sense that it doesn’t mention him at all, yes.
    :lol:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Greed is good...
    They’re not actually that greedy (I’ve met 1 although don’t know him well).

    They don’t take a salary but instead get a cut of the profits from their work. They are very good so make lots of profits - which makes pensions bigger for people like you and me
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,422
    but no Yvette Cooper, Harriet Harman, Ben Bradshaw or Dromey on that list....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,943
    SeanT said:

    Had drinks with a smart, lefty friend tonight. 50-something. Definitely more left than centre-left.

    He expressed absolute contempt for Corbyn ("he's either stupid or anti-Semitic, probably both") combined with an unexpected despair at Labour's long term future.

    He thinks the racist, hard left anti-Semitic wing of the party can simply never reconcile with the Blairite "mainstream". A split (or some similarly dreadful and apocalyptic rupture) is now inevitable, to his mind.

    I found it all most encouraging.

    We're you pissed or was he.

    Either way he was spouting bollocks
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Greed is good...
    They’re not actually that greedy (I’ve met 1 although don’t know him well).

    They don’t take a salary but instead get a cut of the profits from their work. They are very good so make lots of profits - which makes pensions bigger for people like you and me
    Could you please reword that to make it sound more patronising, and then explain how you can tell 4 men are not greedy when you have met one of them, once?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,223
    Ishmael_Z said:

    And to think that being an expert on something implies an ability to predict the future of that thing. A true touchstone for invincible stupidity.

    Oddly I plowing thru "Superforecasters" at the moment (somebody here recommended it. It's a damn fine read, tbh). The qualities of a good forecaster are: an ability to research the issue, update one's forecast frequently, present one's forecast to others for critical examination, break the problem into subproblems, constant practice, track your predictions and recognise past errors, mix with other people who wish to predict accurately, avoid wishful thinking.

    I recall again that PB meets some of these criteria but not all and is actively hostile to one of them ("mix with people who wish to predict accurately"). @BlackRook, @isam and @RodCrosby were good but have been either banned or chased off.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,422

    SeanT said:

    Had drinks with a smart, lefty friend tonight. 50-something. Definitely more left than centre-left.

    He expressed absolute contempt for Corbyn ("he's either stupid or anti-Semitic, probably both") combined with an unexpected despair at Labour's long term future.

    He thinks the racist, hard left anti-Semitic wing of the party can simply never reconcile with the Blairite "mainstream". A split (or some similarly dreadful and apocalyptic rupture) is now inevitable, to his mind.

    I found it all most encouraging.

    We're you pissed or was he.

    Either way he was spouting bollocks
    cogently argued.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,765
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Greed is good...
    They’re not actually that greedy (I’ve met 1 although don’t know him well).

    They don’t take a salary but instead get a cut of the profits from their work. They are very good so make lots of profits - which makes pensions bigger for people like you and me
    Could you please reword that to make it sound more patronising, and then explain how you can tell 4 men are not greedy when you have met one of them, once?
    How can any of us tell whether someone is greedy if we have to meet them to determine that? That's a very high level of prior work before deciding.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969

    TGOHF said:

    New Zealand win the toss and will bowl, so will England be all out before lunch again?

    England have 4 genuine tail-Enders in the team...a few early wickets and it is squeaky bum time.
    Been relying on bowlers scoring runs for too long. Better looking bowling attack.
    I am not convinced Wood is the answer. We desperately need to find a bowler that puts the fear of god into batsman and / or a left armer. And a spinner that really turns it.

    I know Wood is quicker than he looks, but I don't think the batsman really fear him. England continually struggle that once the shine has gone, batsman have got 20 or so, they look totally ineffective.
    Leach >>>> Moeen
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 964
    Can't really see the Blairites leaving in any split type scenario for various reasons laid out elsewhere. Funding being one.

    There is also the fact there aren't actually that many of them, I'd be surprised at anything much above 50.

    They wouldn't be able to take the Labour name either. Also Brexit cuts through some of the anti-Corbyn MPs. Limiting their ability to make the new party anti-Brexit without limiting its numbers.

    I wouldn't rule out them holding at least a few seats but where are the Blairite MPs that would go down well enough to hold a seat against Labour and the other challengers?

    Let alone in any number. It would seem at best a suicide charge at the moment.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    I see economic nationalism/protectionism is sadly still back in fashion.

    I wish people would come up with a new cliche

    There have been so many “unacceptable faces of capitalism” that I’ve completely lost count. And Tiny was not a good man - the Melrose guys just get paid very very well if they make money for their shareholders
    Greed is good...
    They’re not actually that greedy (I’ve met 1 although don’t know him well).

    They don’t take a salary but instead get a cut of the profits from their work. They are very good so make lots of profits - which makes pensions bigger for people like you and me
    I've no idea about the GKN takeover but I don't think there's much trust in 'investors' anymore.

    What odds would you give on them either building a new UK factory or closing a present UK factory ?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,698
    viewcode said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    And to think that being an expert on something implies an ability to predict the future of that thing. A true touchstone for invincible stupidity.

    Oddly I plowing thru "Superforecasters" at the moment (somebody here recommended it. It's a damn fine read, tbh). The qualities of a good forecaster are: an ability to research the issue, update one's forecast frequently, present one's forecast to others for critical examination, break the problem into subproblems, constant practice, track your predictions and recognise past errors, mix with other people who wish to predict accurately, avoid wishful thinking.

    I recall again that PB meets some of these criteria but not all and is actively hostile to one of them ("mix with people who wish to predict accurately"). @BlackRook, @isam and @RodCrosby were good but have been either banned or chased off.

    Rob Crosby was a holocaust denier.

    Mike banned him.

    Labour should watch and learn
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 294

    I just don't understand the schizophrenic attitude towards capitalism, it starts to make me question my opposition to the horse shoe theory..

    The Daily Mail is going to end up way to the left of me pretty soon and then my feelings are just going to become very confused.

    I'm a very firm believer in the horse shoe theory - I think it's self evidently true... But I'm a Lib Dem and so it's a far easier theory for those of us in the centre to relate to almost as observers.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,974
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    New Zealand win the toss and will bowl, so will England be all out before lunch again?

    England have 4 genuine tail-Enders in the team...a few early wickets and it is squeaky bum time.
    Been relying on bowlers scoring runs for too long. Better looking bowling attack.
    I am not convinced Wood is the answer. We desperately need to find a bowler that puts the fear of god into batsman and / or a left armer. And a spinner that really turns it.

    I know Wood is quicker than he looks, but I don't think the batsman really fear him. England continually struggle that once the shine has gone, batsman have got 20 or so, they look totally ineffective.
    Leach >>>> Moeen
    We will see. Moeen has been very poor for a long time, I said on here he should have been dropped before the Ashes. I don't know the answer, as the management are convinced Rashid isn't a red ball bowler.
This discussion has been closed.