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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited March 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election

Hungary is the holding pen of Europe. Sat on the Great Hungarian Plain, which is effectively the most westward of the steppes, it is no coincidence that successive invasions over many eras have come through Hungary and stopped at Vienna, from the Mongols to the Turks to the waves of migrants in 2015 – it is the line of least resistance.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited March 30
    Cheers Alastair and primus inter pares again.
  • I suspect after Brexit, Hungary will be the EU's biggest headache.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,238
    Thank you. Interesting to have such a perspective about another country.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    edited March 30
    Any betting opportunities?

    Edited extra bit: FPT: Mr. B, that's true on Hiero. As for the others, they saved Rome, which, from a Roman perspective, is rather benevolent.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202
    Morning all,

    Thanks for the interesting article. I agree after Brexit, Hungary is a major headache for EU. Although Italy may well turn into the biggest problem quite rapidly.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,332
    edited March 30
    Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.

    EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
    Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 220
    FPT
    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
  • Any betting opportunities?

    Edited extra bit: FPT: Mr. B, that's true on Hiero. As for the others, they saved Rome, which, from a Roman perspective, is rather benevolent.

    Yes a few markets on Betfair, next to no liquidity though.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132210837
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Eagles, cheers. I know that feeling. There are sometimes interesting F1 markets (top 3 qualifying could be a good one this year) that are mostly empty.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,836
    rkrkrk said:

    Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.

    EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
    Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/

    Isn’t that having your cake and eating it?

    You have a “robust” government at home beating up on others; you have the EU to protect them you from them and/or Russia
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202
    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    XenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobiclies
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244

    FPT

    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
    But Sean is a writer, and it might be possible to make a case for having created an environment which contributed to his remarkable productivity last year. (Not least his much reduced posting here.)
    Best settled amicably, in any event.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,332
    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.

    EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
    Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/

    Isn’t that having your cake and eating it?

    You have a “robust” government at home beating up on others; you have the EU to protect them you from them and/or Russia
    Yes. Tough problem for the EU to solve, but if Hungary feels so strongly about immigration they should leave.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    The election doesn't look a nail-biter.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. Borough, starting? I'm surprised it hasn't worried you/Finkelstein before now.
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 220
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
    But Sean is a writer, and it might be possible to make a case for having created an environment which contributed to his remarkable productivity last year. (Not least his much reduced posting here.)
    Best settled amicably, in any event.
    Maybe but, even with that argument, I don't think the courts would agree to give her 50% of Sean's earnings. But, as you say, best settled amicably rather than wasting money on lawyers. My second wife got a lot more than she was entitled to from me for exactly that reason. Fighting it would have left her with less money but, after costs had been paid, I would probably have been little or no better off.
  • Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,609
    Good header, thanks Alastair. Always interesting to hear about foreign elections, even if this one doesn’t look particularly close.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Looks like a battle between right and far right in Hungary.

    Now the UK is leaving Hungary is a prime contender to replace it as the leading member of the EU's awkward squad
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,014
    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.
  • Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.
    You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. HYUFD, depends how Italy's government ends up being composed. They may have a referendum on leaving the single currency, though I suspect they won't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    If SeanT is still reading....

    You are a writer. So write. Write to your wife, telling her everthing that has been so wonderful about your time together, in the most painful detail. Be brutally honest, to her and to yourself. It will remind you of what you are losing. Hopefully, remind her of what you are both losing. She's still young. It's quite possible she will never find anyone who will be what you have been to her. Maybe there's still a way to pre-empt such regret.

    I've only had two big, long-lasting relationships in my life. It's what I did when the first ended. It didn't stop it ending - but it did mean we have stayed very close over the many years since.

    I remember you saying you never expected it to last any great time. But a friendship can still come through it all - and out the other end.
  • TGOHF said:
    To be fair to Seumas Milne, Victor Rothschild had got his father sacked as Director-General of the BBC, so there's history there.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,385
    Interesting header.

    Just imagine being in a political union with a dodgy country like Hungary.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.
    You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.
    I'm not forgetting. What you are forgetting is a world of difference between the lone nutter, and a wall of comment from a mob intent on drowning out dissent.
  • Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.
    You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.
    I'm not forgetting. What you are forgetting is a world of difference between the lone nutter, and a wall of comment from a mob intent on drowning out dissent.
    Lone nutters like Thomas Mair?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870
    rkrkrk said:

    Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.

    EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
    Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/

    Cake and eat it isn't just a UK phenomenon. The good operation of the EU depends on member states following the rules. The lack of respect for the rule of law in Hungary and Poland is a problem for the EU as well as the countries themselves.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    On topic, the Mongol invasion of Hungary was horrific. About a quarter of the population was killed in a few months.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039

    FPT

    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
    No fool like an old fool
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824

    Mr. HYUFD, depends how Italy's government ends up being composed. They may have a referendum on leaving the single currency, though I suspect they won't.

    Hungary is already outside the single currency anyway, though if the new Italian government takes a much firmer line on immigration and pushes for a referendum on leaving the single currency or even a dual currency it would certainly move closer to Hungary's position.

    A Salvini premiership would match Orban's rather more than Di Maio's would I imagine
  • Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.
    You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.
    I'm not forgetting. What you are forgetting is a world of difference between the lone nutter, and a wall of comment from a mob intent on drowning out dissent.
    Lone nutters like Thomas Mair?
    "Reclusive, nervous and by his own account gripped by feelings of worthlessness" - that Thomas Mair, yes.

    A level of self-doubt rarely expressed by the keyboard warriors of Momentum.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202
    There it is in a nutshell. They will defend anything as long as the source is one of their own cultists and is taking the fight to the Tories etc etc.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
    No fool like an old fool
    Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.

    An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039

    Interesting header.

    Just imagine being in a political union with a dodgy country like Hungary.

    We have had lots of practice over last 300 years , it is not nice
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Or - it's a damning indictment of the 40%.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039
    edited March 30
    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
    No fool like an old fool
    Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.

    An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
    Still a fool , unless senile the age difference ensures a disaster. Money can only do so much. He should have known better.

    PS: seem to be many about like your client, lots of delusion around.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Mr. 43, hahaha. The EU didn't follow its own rules at all with the single currency.

    Sorry to hear of Mr. T's impending divorce.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,556

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    There are going to be tens of thousands of Twitter messages howling down the Unbelievers. So yes.
    You're forgetting people have gone to prison for threatening to 'Jo Cox' people like Anna Soubry via twitter.
    I'm not forgetting. What you are forgetting is a world of difference between the lone nutter, and a wall of comment from a mob intent on drowning out dissent.
    Lone nutters like Thomas Mair?
    Thomas Mair looks unlikely to form a government any time soon.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,505
    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 30

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039
    edited March 30
    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
    Has already lost his marbles GIN, going by that post
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,505
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
    Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that post
    Morning Malc. :D

    I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
    No fool like an old fool
    Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.

    An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
    Still a fool , unless senile the age difference ensures a disaster. Money can only do so much. He should have known better.

    PS: seem to be many about like your client, lots of delusion around.
    As SeanT said he has done his duty and had children, he had the money she had the looks, both parties knew what they were getting into and had fun while it lasted it seems
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244
    edited March 30
    TGOHF said:
    I'd be interested in Corbyn's take on the role of Seumas Milne....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,989

    There it is in a nutshell. They will defend anything as long as the source is one of their own cultists and is taking the fight to the Tories etc etc.
    Or possibly those 30 individuals know the person in question better than those of us who don't?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    edited March 30
    Nigelb said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'd be interested in Corbyn's take on the role of Seumas Milne....
    I'd be interested in Milne's take on the role of punctuation....why the question mark?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 30
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
    Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that post
    Morning Malc. :D

    I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
    Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election and post Brexit the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.

    Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,337
    Thank you @AlastairMeeks for the article.

    The only insight I can add on Hungarian politics is based on a chat with an Uber driver. He was not a fan of Orbán or Jobbik, but was concerned that Hungary’s gypsy population tend to have far larger families than regular Hungarians.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,244

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Is anyone arguing that the electorate is spoiled for choice at the moment ... ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
    Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that post
    Morning Malc. :D

    I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
    Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.

    Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election
    Johnny Mercer at Defence? Mordaunt at Health?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Sorry to hear about SeanT and his news.

    I didn't realise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
    Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that post
    Morning Malc. :D

    I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
    Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.

    Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election
    Johnny Mercer at Defence? Mordaunt at Health?
    IDS at Defence, though make Mercer Armed Forces Minister. Bring back Morgan or Greening and put them in health, Mourdaunt can stay at Overseas Aid.
  • TonyTony Posts: 122
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,281
    edited March 30

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,209

    Nigelb said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'd be interested in Corbyn's take on the role of Seumas Milne....
    I'd be interested in Milne's take on the role of punctuation....why the question mark?
    Perhaps Milne realised his comment was questionable.
  • Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    You make austerity sound like a choice.

    If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?

    Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?

    Face it Mrs May blew it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,332

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.
    It's the policy offer which is popular.
    That's the difference with Brown and Miliband.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
    Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that post
    Morning Malc. :D

    I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
    Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.

    Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election
    Johnny Mercer at Defence? Mordaunt at Health?
    IDS at Defence, though make Mercer Armed Forces Minister. Bring back Morgan or Greening and put them in health, Mourdaunt can stay at Overseas Aid.
    IDS is harking backwards - not what the voters want to see. He's had more than a fair crack for someone of middling abilities.

    People like Mercer and Mordaunt need to be blooded at senior levels, if they are going to be the new generation of potential leadership challangers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.
    There certainly are. Austerity, Brexit, anti-capitalism motivate many people against them. Brexit, and intense dislike for the far left, motivate many people in favour of them.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,489
    I do wonder how much Eastern Europe''s right wing autocratic swing has been caused by the liberal left losing many of their voters to Germany and the UK. Then you get more right wing autocracy at home and more liberal young voters don't see a future for themselves in the country. I have heard this happens in the US in states like West Virginia.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
    No fool like an old fool
    Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.

    An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
    Still a fool , unless senile the age difference ensures a disaster. Money can only do so much. He should have known better.

    PS: seem to be many about like your client, lots of delusion around.
    As SeanT said he has done his duty and had children, he had the money she had the looks, both parties knew what they were getting into and had fun while it lasted it seems
    They could have had the same fun without a bit of paper
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.
    Even if it means voting in the anti-semites.

    They must have a weird take on the Tories - and none on history - if they reckon they are worse than anti-semites.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    edited March 30
    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    Had Remain won Osborne might well have succeeded Cameron as PM and Corbyn could well have beaten Osborne in 2020 certainly.

    Taking the harshest edges off of austerity by ending the public sector pay cap and building more houses is something May has got right ( though Osborne did at least increase the minimum wage)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,609
    David Baddiel’s Twitter feed over the past few days has been quite astonishing, especially his polite (and not so polite) replies.

    Trying to argue on Twitter with someone who writes comedy for a living doesn’t usually end well, they all get made to look like the drunken idiot at the comedy club shouting at the stage.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    You make austerity sound like a choice.

    If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?

    Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?

    Face it Mrs May blew it.
    She blew a little bit of her lead (perhaps 3-4%) but mostly it was the centre-left/Left fully consolidating around Corbyn, partly, amongst AB centre-left voters, to try and frustrate Brexit.

    That's interesting, because how the votes divvy up next time amongst the major parties could have a big impact on seats.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    You make austerity sound like a choice.

    If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?

    Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?

    Face it Mrs May blew it.
    Austerity was necessary, but many people still hate it.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,489
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.
    There certainly are. Austerity, Brexit, anti-capitalism motivate many people against them. Brexit, and intense dislike for the far left, motivate many people in favour of them.
    This is why it would be so stupid for the Tories to put people like Hunt and Osborne into visible prominence. They are the faces of austerity. Post-Brexit they need someone not seen as a social reactionary and not seen as a Thatcherite cutter.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
    Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that post
    Morning Malc. :D

    I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
    Morning GIN, the alternatives are just cheeks of the same arse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Sean_F said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    You make austerity sound like a choice.

    If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?

    Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?

    Face it Mrs May blew it.
    Austerity was necessary, but many people still hate it.
    The rhetoric of the Government is now moving to taking a "balanced approach" to public spending, which both May and Hammond have started using in recent weeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    You make austerity sound like a choice.

    If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?

    Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?

    Face it Mrs May blew it.
    The Left and anti Tory vote was more divided in 2015 but Corbyn squeezed the UKIP, SNP, Green and LD votes in 2017.

    Corbyn was also more charismatic and a better campaigner than Ed Miliband was.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,539
    Mind-boggling list of 50 instances of anti-Semitism by Labour/Momentum/Corbyn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    Elliot said:

    I do wonder how much Eastern Europe''s right wing autocratic swing has been caused by the liberal left losing many of their voters to Germany and the UK. Then you get more right wing autocracy at home and more liberal young voters don't see a future for themselves in the country. I have heard this happens in the US in states like West Virginia.

    Except the UK voted for Brexit and Germany has the anti immigration AfD polling as the main opposition to the CDU and SPD Grand Coalition
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,039
    Sean_F said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    You make austerity sound like a choice.

    If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?

    Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?

    Face it Mrs May blew it.
    Austerity was necessary, but many people still hate it.
    It was necessary but Tories made sure their chums at top were excluded, it is the plebs that are taking the hit. If all were involved people may have accepted a bit better.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.
    Even if it means voting in the anti-semites.

    They must have a weird take on the Tories - and none on history - if they reckon they are worse than anti-semites.
    There are people like that. People who regard the Tories as "lower than vermin."

    But, there are more people who simply feel they've been treated unfairly over the past eight years.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,698

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    You are far from alone in that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Thanks for the insight Alastair.

    O/T, but March 2018 seems to have been a turning point:

    - For May, Her confidence seems returned
    - For the Tories, there is media and policy focus on domestic issues like housing and the environment
    - For Corbyn, the unlikely Labour Party truce is over
    - For Brexit, there has been a sea-change in the reporting. It is now seen (finally, some might say) as likely, inevitable - and all sly little manoeuvres like trying to stay in the Customs Union seen as doomed to failure


    As I've been saying since the DUP deal was struck, I now fully expect May to take us into the next election.

    Where you lose?
    Has already lost his marbles GIN going by that post
    Morning Malc. :D

    I do think Theresa has shored things up and will be there until 2020/2021 now... But you'd have to be mad to let her go up against the electorate in another general election again.
    Theresa will continue leading through the tough Brexit negotiations and transition period but at the time of the next general election the Tories will need a more charismatic and telegenic leader to have a chance of a majority and for me that can only be Boris.

    Personally I would have Boris as PM, Gove as Chancellor, Hunt as Foreign Secretary and keep Rudd at Home that would be a strong team to take on the Corbynistas at the next general election
    Johnny Mercer at Defence? Mordaunt at Health?
    IDS at Defence, though make Mercer Armed Forces Minister. Bring back Morgan or Greening and put them in health, Mourdaunt can stay at Overseas Aid.
    IDS is harking backwards - not what the voters want to see. He's had more than a fair crack for someone of middling abilities.

    People like Mercer and Mordaunt need to be blooded at senior levels, if they are going to be the new generation of potential leadership challangers.
    IDS was effective under Hague as Shadow Defence Secretary.

    Mercer needs a junior ministerial post first before he can even be considered for the Cabinet.

    Mourdaunt needs time to show what she can do at Overseas Aid before being considered for promotion further
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    It’s really quite something that Corbyn - even after this month - still has kept his coalition together, and despite being a much more controversial candidate has polled better than the two more mainstream previous Labour leaders. There are a lot of people out there who really dislike the Conservative party, and it looks like they aren’t budging.
    Even if it means voting in the anti-semites.

    They must have a weird take on the Tories - and none on history - if they reckon they are worse than anti-semites.
    There are people like that. People who regard the Tories as "lower than vermin."

    But, there are more people who simply feel they've been treated unfairly over the past eight years.
    The Budget this Autumn will be very interesting.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,698

    XenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobicliesXenophobiclies

    Sorry - is that a comment on Hungary or leavers?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:



    But by his own account he did rather well financially over the last year, which would be relevant to any such discussions.

    It would be relevant but it won't change the position much, if at all. See Sharp v Sharp [2017] EWCA Civ 408. The couple in that case were married for 4 years. At the start of the marriage their financial positions were similar. During the marriage Mrs Sharp received bonuses totalling £10.5M. The Court of Appeal decided that Mr Sharp was not entitled to anything like 50% of the assets as it was a short marriage and most of the assets had been generated by Mrs Sharp.

    Here we are dealing with an even shorter marriage. I therefore doubt she will be entitled to anything like 50% of the assets generated during the marriage.

    This discussion does, of course, assume that they are divorced in the UK. If the divorce is in another jurisdiction SeanT's wife is likely to do worse than she would in the UK courts.
    No fool like an old fool
    Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.

    An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.
    See quite a lot of that sort of thing in Thailand.

    Happy Easter, Ēostre, Spring Festival or whatever all. I’m now off to play the role of kindly, wise old Grandfather at the family’s Easter do.
    Sadly the Thailand contingent will not be there. It’s not their New Holiday until 15th.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,870

    Mr. 43, hahaha. The EU didn't follow its own rules at all with the single currency.

    Sorry to hear of Mr. T's impending divorce.

    As say, implementation of EU rules is largely the responsibility of member states, therefore member states break the rules from time to time. Most of the time they don't however.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,413
    Sean_F said:

    Sean T went into the marriage with his eyes open.

    An old fool is someone like my deceased client who at the age of 66, married a 22 year old Thai, and gave her most of his money, because she really loved him, and thought him a very sexy man.

    And all that trouble getting the coffin lid down ....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,698

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Potentially much, much worse

    Mr McDonnell signed a wonderful document once, which he then claimed he hadn't read... sound familiar?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,046
    edited March 30
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.

    EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
    Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/

    Isn’t that having your cake and eating it?

    You have a “robust” government at home beating up on others; you have the EU to protect them you from them and/or Russia
    Yes. Tough problem for the EU to solve, but if Hungary feels so strongly about immigration they should leave.
    Hungary signed up for freedom of movement of EU citizens - not for the rest of the world or to solve the consequences of Germany's immigration choices. And if that is the choice the Hungarian people vote for shouldn't democratically that choice be respected?

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,539
    Thanks, Mr Meeks for an absorbing header.
    Hungary and Hungarians have always appeared exceptional, defined by an almost unique and detached language wedged between teutonic and slavic blocs. They must themselves feel this otherness about themselves, and perhaps it underlies their euroskepticism now just as it did their attitude to the Soviets when under their yoke.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 5,698
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,489
    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    I do wonder how much Eastern Europe''s right wing autocratic swing has been caused by the liberal left losing many of their voters to Germany and the UK. Then you get more right wing autocracy at home and more liberal young voters don't see a future for themselves in the country. I have heard this happens in the US in states like West Virginia.

    Except the UK voted for Brexit and Germany has the anti immigration AfD polling as the main opposition to the CDU and SPD Grand Coalition
    Neither the UK's Brexit government, nor - as far as I can tell - the AfD, are anywhere near as autocratic as these right wing governments in the ex communist block.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,505

    Sorry to hear about SeanT and his news.

    I didn't realise.

    What's happened to Mr T?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,489
    HYUFD said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    Had Remain won Osborne might well have succeeded Cameron as PM and Corbyn could well have beaten Osborne in 2020 certainly.

    Taking the harshest edges off of austerity by ending the public sector pay cap and building more houses is something May has got right ( though Osborne did at least increase the minimum wage)
    The problem on the housing issue is that announcements of good policy won't actually swing many votes. In fact, given NIMBYism it may cost them. What will reduce support for Corbynism is the practical effects of enough housing being built to bring affordability ratios down - and a few years of them to boot.

    May needs to get cracking.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Glad I'm not the only one starting to worry about this:

    Worse than 'Crush the saboteurs' or 'Mutineers' attacks?
    Personally, I find May & Co. v Corbyn & Co. a very easy choice to make.
    Yet circa 40% of the country seemingly prefer Corbyn to May.

    That's a damning indictment on Mrs May.
    Mrs May has twice beaten Corbyn in the popular vote in both the 2017 county and general elections and might do so again in May.

    Corbyn beat Cameron in the popular vote in the 2016 local elections in the only national election they faced each other.

    The idea Corbyn's surge was down to May is absurd (beyond her stupid idea for a dementia tax, now dropped).

    It was austerity, the public sector pay cap, high interest rates on student fees and out of reach house prices for the young which drove the Corbyn surge and all of which were present under Cameron and Osborne. May has started to gradually try and rectify concerns in those areas by increasing public sector pay, more housebuilding, a student fees review etc
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    You make austerity sound like a choice.

    If Osborne’s austerity was so bad how did the Tories win a majority in 2015?

    Also how on earth did the Tories get 25% ahead in the polls last April/May?

    Face it Mrs May blew it.
    Austerity was a choice.

    The government chose not to apply it to pensioners.

    It could have chosen instead not to triple student tuition fees and not to triple lock pensions.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    Sean_F said:

    On topic, the Mongol invasion of Hungary was horrific. About a quarter of the population was killed in a few months.

    Wasn't that about the average for a Mongol invasion ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    HYUFD said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:
    For me Corbyn is the child of Osborne, his rise was the natural reaction to the austerity regime and the constant ramping of house prices promulgated by George.
    A Cameroon/Corbyn election could well have ended by with JC in No .10 .
    May actually managed to win a lot of voters who'd never would have voted for an Old Etotian.

    The Tories have enabled the far Left with the high house price , low wage austerity economy.
    Had Remain won Osborne might well have succeeded Cameron as PM and Corbyn could well have beaten Osborne in 2020 certainly.

    Taking the harshest edges off of austerity by ending the public sector pay cap and building more houses is something May has got right ( though Osborne did at least increase the minimum wage)
    It's possible to take the harshest edge off austerity because debt is now falling as a share of GDP, a luxury Osborne never had. What I find remarkable is that it has been so relatively painless to reduce the deficit by over £100bn, more than 1/8th of all government expenditure.

    Some budgets have undoubtedly got tighter, the head count in the public sector has fallen fairly significantly (thankfully absorbed and then some by the private sector); some high demand services such as health are really hurting now, a significant pain for tomorrow has been built up in student debt but wow. To achieve this whilst taking millions out of tax altogether and only modestly increasing the taxes on the better off is a remarkable achievement which suggests massive quantities of money was being wasted before the crash.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,489
    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to hear about SeanT and his news.

    I didn't realise.

    What's happened to Mr T?
    The relationship where he came on to a board of politics geeks and boasted he was having sex with a girl less than half his age? Turned out not to be a lasting one.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,419
    rkrkrk said:

    Seem to have lost my comment - nice thread header.

    EU membership seems to be popular in Hungary so I'm surprised the govt is not keen...
    Perhaps immigration will change that popularity...

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-europe-continent-but-also-exit-referendum-support/

    EU membership brings financial transfers to poorer countries and an opportunity for their people to emigrate.
This discussion has been closed.