This is a surreal one and particularly painful sounding given his name:
Maharaj to SE Marsh, 1 bye, QDK misses a stumping! Marsh ran down the pitch to drive, but the ball went straight on to beat him and hit de Kock on on his left pad as he tried to rise with the bounce. Chance nevertheless. Replays show just as the opportunity came, de Kock was stung by a bee. That could've put him off.
"David Goodhart: Liberals are set on a collision course with democracy Two new books attempt to chart a course through choppy political waters. David Goodhart is unconvinced"
"Liberals in developed countries have been used to winning almost every argument for economic and cultural openness over the past 30 years. And they have not in the main been reacting calmly to the apparent end to this golden era."
You can say that again!
Goodhart certainly takes your advice to heart. He's got an analysis and he's gonna use it, every chance he gets whether the facts fit or not.
The biggest claim was that Turkey was going to join EU, and that aside from that EU was going to give Turkish migrants free access to live and work in the EU. Both were true at the time of the referendum.
Turkey was an accession country and it was only the failure of the Turkish Government to come to agreement on issues around separation of powers and human rights. Again with access to schengen it was imminent.
If it wasnt for the attempted coup they would now have total schengen access.
I believe the poster was fair game because - as you say - Turkey was an accession country,
But the rest of your post is bullshit, because there was no way an accession treaty would be signed by the Greeks or the Cypriots.
One side is actually destroying the other state, as you say pretty hard to negotiate with that.
Which is why neither side actually wants peace. They want victory.
A professor at the Hebrew University once told me that most Israelis want three things - a state that is Jewish, democratic, and from the river (Jordan) to the sea. But as he further pointed out, they can only have two of those. A state from the river to the sea would almost certainly be majority Muslim, so if it was democratic it couldn't be Jewish and if it was Jewish it couldn't be democratic. Therefore, to be democratic and Jewish it couldn't stretch to the Jordan.
But that is not enough for a large number on both sides. Therefore the problem is ultimately insoluble. It could easily end in a gencoide by one side or the other. At the moment Israel has the advantage if that is the case, but it is one change of policy by the Americans away from being horrendously outnumbered and unsustainable economically.
I can also recommend Ahron Bregman's book 'Cursed Victory' on this subject. Bregman is a former Israeli soldier who refused to serve in the Israeli army over its behaviour in the West Bank. He now lives in London and lectures at either UCL or SOAS (I forget which). Well worth a read.
There is something of a Pro-Israeli argument to be made for striking a favourable peace now from a strong position, although the counter argument I guess is they could keep the status quo going and possibly secure an even more favourable one later on.
That and there is certainly an all or nothing section that would want to keep going.
Sounds interesting but to be honest I've inherited quite a few books recently that I should get around to first. Don't want it to get to the point where I just have books for display purposes rather than ones I have actually read.
It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.
Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...
The biggest claim was that Turkey was going to join EU, and that aside from that EU was going to give Turkish migrants free access to live and work in the EU. Both were true at the time of the referendum.
Turkey was an accession country and it was only the failure of the Turkish Government to come to agreement on issues around separation of powers and human rights. Again with access to schengen it was imminent.
If it wasnt for the attempted coup they would now have total schengen access.
I believe the poster was fair game because - as you say - Turkey was an accession country,
But the rest of your post is bullshit, because there was no way an accession treaty would be signed by the Greeks or the Cypriots.
"Total Schengen access" is never what was proposed. There would have just been a visa waiver programme which still gave the EU control over which Turkish citizens were in scope.
And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.
I have an almost unique attitude to @RodCrosby: I deprecate his politics enormously and do not share them, but I would still like to read his stuff - he was one of the best predictors and possibly the only modeller on the site (does @AndyJS build models?).
I have often moaned about the focus of PB being on politics instead of political betting, and this illustrates the divide: if PB was a prediction-based environment his predictions and methodology would have been relevant (tho you'd have to strip them of the hidden references first), but in PB's current incarnation where so many argue pro- and con- their political preferences, his political stance became apparent and relevant...to the detriment of all.
Two thirds of people think the country is more divided, precisely because so many in the media and the London-based elites have spent the last year talking about how to overturn democracy.
There is something of a Pro-Israeli argument to be made for striking a favourable peace now from a strong position, although the counter argument I guess is they could keep the status quo going and possibly secure an even more favourable one later on.
That and there is certainly an all or nothing section that would want to keep going.
Sounds interesting but to be honest I've inherited quite a few books recently that I should get around to first. Don't want it to get to the point where I just have books for display purposes rather than ones I have actually read.
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.
Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...
Thank you. Coincidentally I did my accounts last night (where I am amortising the cost of a poor currency conversion I made post-Brexit) and my reaction is similar to that of Panel 3...
"David Goodhart: Liberals are set on a collision course with democracy Two new books attempt to chart a course through choppy political waters. David Goodhart is unconvinced"
Ach, the "somewhere vs anywheres" guy again. I disagree with his assumption that people are basically decent, and that their basic decency will prevent badness. Individual people are kind and good and decent, but crowds and tribes and populations are not.[1] How many bloody (both senses) years of history have we had that disprove that? I am sick to the back teeth of people who insist that we are in some special place in history and so evolved that war is an impossibility and evil is to be found only in history.
[1] OK I give up. Which Terry Pratchett passage am I remembering here? I can't remember.
I think it's a line from The Fifth Elephant (although I could be wrong) - 'a crowd has the IQ of its stupidest member divided by the number of people present.'
Thank you. Tho' I think it's more a Vimes or Weatherwax or Vetinari stance. Or I might be misremembering PJ O'Roarke. Damn, I need a filing system for my head...
"David Goodhart: Liberals are set on a collision course with democracy Two new books attempt to chart a course through choppy political waters. David Goodhart is unconvinced"
Ach, the "somewhere vs anywheres" guy again. I disagree with his assumption that people are basically decent, and that their basic decency will prevent badness. Individual people are kind and good and decent, but crowds and tribes and populations are not.[1] How many bloody (both senses) years of history have we had that disprove that? I am sick to the back teeth of people who insist that we are in some special place in history and so evolved that war is an impossibility and evil is to be found only in history.
[1] OK I give up. Which Terry Pratchett passage am I remembering here? I can't remember.
I think it's a line from The Fifth Elephant (although I could be wrong) - 'a crowd has the IQ of its stupidest member divided by the number of people present.'
Thank you. Tho' I think it's more a Vimes or Weatherwax or Vetinari stance. Or I might be misremembering PJ O'Roarke. Damn, I need a filing system for my head...
It's from a Vimes book, I just can't remember which one. I think it's The Fifth Elephant but it might even be Thud.
Two thirds of people think the country is more divided, precisely because so many in the media and the London-based elites have spent the last year talking about how to overturn democracy.
The biggest claim was that Turkey was going to join EU, and that aside from that EU was going to give Turkish migrants free access to live and work in the EU. Both were true at the time of the referendum.
Turkey was an accession country and it was only the failure of the Turkish Government to come to agreement on issues around separation of powers and human rights. Again with access to schengen it was imminent.
If it wasnt for the attempted coup they would now have total schengen access.
I believe the poster was fair game because - as you say - Turkey was an accession country,
But the rest of your post is bullshit, because there was no way an accession treaty would be signed by the Greeks or the Cypriots.
"Total Schengen access" is never what was proposed. There would have just been a visa waiver programme which still gave the EU control over which Turkish citizens were in scope.
Well yes.
Schengen access != to Schengen Membership.
Schengen access is what we have, the South Koreans have, the Albanians have, the Argentinians have, the Venezuelans have, and the Malaysians have. It means that you are allowed visa free access to Schengen. You still need a passport. You simply don't need to pre-apply for a visa online.
Schengen access does not mean you have any right to reside or work. Just as us allowing Americans into the UK without a visa does not mean they are allowed to reside or work.
It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.
Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...
It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.
Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...
I'm always sceptical of fund managers who have large chunks of their portfolios in unlisted companies. It enables them to not mark positions down when the market moves, and look lower volatility than their peers.
An issue is that one side has the total destruction of the Israeli state as it core principle. It's hard to negotiate with that.
The other side completely destroyed Palestine... Until both sides can admit to fault on their own side and justification for the other there can be no compromise that will stand the test of time.
There did seem to be a chance for peace following the Oslo accords in 1991, but this disappeared following the assassination of Yitzchak Rabin in November 1995, a spate of Hamas terrorist bombings in 1996, followed by Bibi's first stint as Israeli PM. The prospects now seem bleak.
And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.
I have an almost unique attitude to @RodCrosby: I deprecate his politics enormously and do not share them, but I would still like to read his stuff - he was one of the best predictors and possibly the only modeller on the site (does @AndyJS build models?).
I have often moaned about the focus of PB being on politics instead of political betting, and this illustrates the divide: if PB was a prediction-based environment his predictions and methodology would have been relevant (tho you'd have to strip them of the hidden references first), but in PB's current incarnation where so many argue pro- and con- their political preferences, his political stance became apparent and relevant...to the detriment of all.
And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.
I have an almost unique attitude to @RodCrosby: I deprecate his politics enormously and do not share them, but I would still like to read his stuff - he was one of the best predictors and possibly the only modeller on the site (does @AndyJS build models?).
I have often moaned about the focus of PB being on politics instead of political betting, and this illustrates the divide: if PB was a prediction-based environment his predictions and methodology would have been relevant (tho you'd have to strip them of the hidden references first), but in PB's current incarnation where so many argue pro- and con- their political preferences, his political stance became apparent and relevant...to the detriment of all.
+ 1
Rod had more than one opportunity to keep quiet about it, as I recall.
And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.
I have an almost unique attitude to @RodCrosby: I deprecate his politics enormously and do not share them, but I would still like to read his stuff - he was one of the best predictors and possibly the only modeller on the site (does @AndyJS build models?).
I have often moaned about the focus of PB being on politics instead of political betting, and this illustrates the divide: if PB was a prediction-based environment his predictions and methodology would have been relevant (tho you'd have to strip them of the hidden references first), but in PB's current incarnation where so many argue pro- and con- their political preferences, his political stance became apparent and relevant...to the detriment of all.
+ 1
I think it was not so much Rod Crosby's general political views that were the issue, and more the fact that he persisted with pushing the holocaust denial despite repeated warnings not to go down that particular rabbit warren.
"David Goodhart: Liberals are set on a collision course with democracy Two new books attempt to chart a course through choppy political waters. David Goodhart is unconvinced"
"Liberals in developed countries have been used to winning almost every argument for economic and cultural openness over the past 30 years. And they have not in the main been reacting calmly to the apparent end to this golden era."
You can say that again!
Goodhart certainly takes your advice to heart. He's got an analysis and he's gonna use it, every chance he gets whether the facts fit or not.
Not that you would ever do that about Brexit! lol!!
There is something of a Pro-Israeli argument to be made for striking a favourable peace now from a strong position, although the counter argument I guess is they could keep the status quo going and possibly secure an even more favourable one later on.
That and there is certainly an all or nothing section that would want to keep going.
Sounds interesting but to be honest I've inherited quite a few books recently that I should get around to first. Don't want it to get to the point where I just have books for display purposes rather than ones I have actually read.
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
There is something of a Pro-Israeli argument to be made for striking a favourable peace now from a strong position, although the counter argument I guess is they could keep the status quo going and possibly secure an even more favourable one later on.
That and there is certainly an all or nothing section that would want to keep going.
Sounds interesting but to be honest I've inherited quite a few books recently that I should get around to first. Don't want it to get to the point where I just have books for display purposes rather than ones I have actually read.
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
Looking at it from the POV of wanting it to happen it is hard to argue with their current approach. Not that it doesn't have obstacles and it would be difficult to keep enough international support but 'facts on the ground' at the very least locks the Israeli state in for all but the most desperate circumstances. The argument is how much longer will the support be there and I do wonder if the American populations opinion on this is shifting slightly, I might just be seeing what I want to but it feels like it from the little I watch/hear/read.
In regards to the water I reminds me of watching a video on youtube sometime ago, Jewish American woman who went to Palestine and reported what she saw. One of the basic messages I remember, and at this point she was specifically referring to checkpoints within Palestinian territory, was a basic message of control. Checkpoints, certainly ones that aren't to do with security anyway, water and food are all used as sources of control over the population.
There is something of a Pro-Israeli argument to be made for striking a favourable peace now from a strong position, although the counter argument I guess is they could keep the status quo going and possibly secure an even more favourable one later on.
That and there is certainly an all or nothing section that would want to keep going.
Sounds interesting but to be honest I've inherited quite a few books recently that I should get around to first. Don't want it to get to the point where I just have books for display purposes rather than ones I have actually read.
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
Like, the last para especially.
I should clarify that throughout the post and especially in the last paragraph I was endorsing and amplifying the views of @TheJezziah.
"it’s the cast of mind, the way of thinking, that antisemitism represents that we should fear. Conspiracy theory, fake news, demonisation of an unpopular group: what happens to our politics if all these become the norm? This is why Jews have often functioned as a canary in the coalmine: when a society turns on its Jews, it is usually a sign of wider ill health."
Looking at it from the POV of wanting it to happen it is hard to argue with their current approach. Not that it doesn't have obstacles and it would be difficult to keep enough international support but 'facts on the ground' at the very least locks the Israeli state in for all but the most desperate circumstances. The argument is how much longer will the support be there and I do wonder if the American populations opinion on this is shifting slightly, I might just be seeing what I want to but it feels like it from the little I watch/hear/read.
In regards to the water I reminds me of watching a video on youtube sometime ago, Jewish American woman who went to Palestine and reported what she saw. One of the basic messages I remember, and at this point she was specifically referring to checkpoints within Palestinian territory, was a basic message of control. Checkpoints, certainly ones that aren't to do with security anyway, water and food are all used as sources of control over the population.
The other things these checkpoints do of course is royally bugger the Palestinian economy by creating so many barriers to movement. Whether that's part of the reason they're there or just a side effect I don't know.
With regard to your first paragraph, the Israeli government position does presuppose that the Muslim population will not outstrip the Jewish one even without Gaza and perhaps even Ramallah, Hebron and Jericho. Given the extraordinary fertility rates of Palestinian women (4.18) this seems to say the least a bold assumption. It also as you note presupposes ongoing Western, especially American, support and that is also not God-given as Obama showed.
And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.
I have an almost unique attitude to @RodCrosby: I deprecate his politics enormously and do not share them, but I would still like to read his stuff - he was one of the best predictors and possibly the only modeller on the site (does @AndyJS build models?).
I have often moaned about the focus of PB being on politics instead of political betting, and this illustrates the divide: if PB was a prediction-based environment his predictions and methodology would have been relevant (tho you'd have to strip them of the hidden references first), but in PB's current incarnation where so many argue pro- and con- their political preferences, his political stance became apparent and relevant...to the detriment of all.
Rod was / is a very odd cookie. I remember challenging him about his prediction methodology and he very rationally presented links to good solid academic work and explained what his model took from these, but then in the next breath would be off on the tin foil hat conspiracy bollocks about the holocaust.
14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.
The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.
Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;
Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.
You do know that Gaza is not occupied by Israel, don't you? It was land that it gave up for peace and from which it removed Jewish settlers.
Or do facts not matter any more?
I love the bit when they go back to "land stolen by Israel" in the 1968 war... It only takes a small poking around to work out the facts of the matter.
Another expert pops up , show us the results of your poking about.
Jordon and Syria attacked Israel in order to destroy the jewish state. Israel fought back and pushed jordon and syria back taking over their territories by force.
Totally justified.
Same as Russia taking Crimea and Ukraine, Saddam taking Kuwait................ Totally justified
14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.
The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.
Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;
Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.
You do know that Gaza is not occupied by Israel, don't you? It was land that it gave up for peace and from which it removed Jewish settlers.
Or do facts not matter any more?
I love the bit when they go back to "land stolen by Israel" in the 1968 war... It only takes a small poking around to work out the facts of the matter.
Another expert pops up , show us the results of your poking about.
Jordon and Syria attacked Israel in order to destroy the jewish state. Israel fought back and pushed jordon and syria back taking over their territories by force.
Totally justified.
I imagine if another people tried to setup a country in Britain our neighbours would try to help us fight them off... the idea that justifies the original invasion is an interesting one.
Good point. If a bunch of Druids turned up saying their holy book promised them Salisbury Plain I think we'd react. And if they won the ruck and occupied West Sussex, Berkshire and a strategic service station on the M25 I don't imagine we'd shrug our shoulders and sue for peace easily.
And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.
I have an almost unique attitude to @RodCrosby: I deprecate his politics enormously and do not share them, but I would still like to read his stuff - he was one of the best predictors and possibly the only modeller on the site (does @AndyJS build models?).
I have often moaned about the focus of PB being on politics instead of political betting, and this illustrates the divide: if PB was a prediction-based environment his predictions and methodology would have been relevant (tho you'd have to strip them of the hidden references first), but in PB's current incarnation where so many argue pro- and con- their political preferences, his political stance became apparent and relevant...to the detriment of all.
Rod was / is a very odd cookie. I remember challenging him about his prediction methodology and he very rationally presented links to good solid academic work and explained what his model took from these, but then in the next breath would be off on the tin foil hat conspiracy bollocks about the holocaust.
Yes, very sensible and insightful 95% of the time but then the occasional late night rant about some conspiracy theory or other. Mike took the right decision at the time to have a zero tolerance policy, as other organisations are finding out the hard way.
14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.
The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.
Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;
Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.
You do know that Gaza is not occupied by Israel, don't you? It was land that it gave up for peace and from which it removed Jewish settlers.
Or do facts not matter any more?
I love the bit when they go back to "land stolen by Israel" in the 1968 war... It only takes a small poking around to work out the facts of the matter.
Another expert pops up , show us the results of your poking about.
Jordon and Syria attacked Israel in order to destroy the jewish state. Israel fought back and pushed jordon and syria back taking over their territories by force.
Totally justified.
I imagine if another people tried to setup a country in Britain our neighbours would try to help us fight them off... the idea that justifies the original invasion is an interesting one.
Good point. If a bunch of Druids turned up saying their holy book promised them Salisbury Plain I think we'd react. And if they won the ruck and occupied West Sussex, Berkshire and a strategic service station on the M25 I don't imagine we'd shrug our shoulders and sue for peace easily.
Northern Ireland and the plantation of Presbyterians spring to mind...
And many of them are the same posters who called for hard right holocaust denier Ron Crosby to be reinstated to this site, a pretty gruesome spectacle when I was a mere lurker.
I have an almost unique attitude to @RodCrosby: I deprecate his politics enormously and do not share them, but I would still like to read his stuff - he was one of the best predictors and possibly the only modeller on the site (does @AndyJS build models?).
I have often moaned about the focus of PB being on politics instead of political betting, and this illustrates the divide: if PB was a prediction-based environment his predictions and methodology would have been relevant (tho you'd have to strip them of the hidden references first), but in PB's current incarnation where so many argue pro- and con- their political preferences, his political stance became apparent and relevant...to the detriment of all.
Rod was / is a very odd cookie. I remember challenging him about his prediction methodology and he very rationally presented links to good solid academic work and explained what his model took from these, but then in the next breath would be off on the tin foil hat conspiracy bollocks about the holocaust.
Yes, very sensible and insightful 95% of the time but then the occasional late night rant about some conspiracy theory or other. Mike took the right decision at the time to have a zero tolerance policy, as other organisations are finding out the hard way.
Mike also showed a great deal of patience with him. I think he was on about public warning no. 5 when the ban hammer finally dropped.
Looking at it from the POV of wanting it to happen it is hard to argue with their current approach. Not that it doesn't have obstacles and it would be difficult to keep enough international support but 'facts on the ground' at the very least locks the Israeli state in for all but the most desperate circumstances. The argument is how much longer will the support be there and I do wonder if the American populations opinion on this is shifting slightly, I might just be seeing what I want to but it feels like it from the little I watch/hear/read.
In regards to the water I reminds me of watching a video on youtube sometime ago, Jewish American woman who went to Palestine and reported what she saw. One of the basic messages I remember, and at this point she was specifically referring to checkpoints within Palestinian territory, was a basic message of control. Checkpoints, certainly ones that aren't to do with security anyway, water and food are all used as sources of control over the population.
The other things these checkpoints do of course is royally bugger the Palestinian economy by creating so many barriers to movement. Whether that's part of the reason they're there or just a side effect I don't know.
With regard to your first paragraph, the Israeli government position does presuppose that the Muslim population will not outstrip the Jewish one even without Gaza and perhaps even Ramallah, Hebron and Jericho. Given the extraordinary fertility rates of Palestinian women (4.18) this seems to say the least a bold assumption. It also as you note presupposes ongoing Western, especially American, support and that is also not God-given as Obama showed.
Yeah I think that is the other thing she mentioned, which meant Israeli goods were cheaper, which meant a poor Palestinian would be more likely to buy them. Not a good circle for economic development for the Palestinian people.
4.18 is incredible.... I just worry it could all get very messy for either side at some point as the logical constraints of what they might really want reach the reality of people that need to be removed to make it happen.
Interesting chat, also enjoyed learning the word suzerainty!
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
The point is, Israel has it all: the land, the wealth, the military power and the water. Any settlement means they share those things with people who don't wish them well. They don't see why they should and they are under no pressure to do so. Israel may talk about existential threats but who are they kidding? Things are hunkydory for them.
It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.
Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...
Nice chat on here today. RochdalePioneer made some very strong posts. Also interesting to see people debating the Israel-Palestine issue in a way that is sometimes extremely critical of Israel and yet isn't remotely anti-Semitic, nor are they getting accused of being anti-Semitic, nor is anybody complaining that "other people aren't letting me complain about Israel because they would say I was being anti-Semitic PS that's because Jews are running the biased media". Good to know it can be done...
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
The point is, Israel has it all: the land, the wealth, the military power and the water. Any settlement means they share those things with people who don't wish them well. They don't see why they should and they are under no pressure to do so. Israel may talk about existential threats but who are they kidding? Things are hunkydory for them.
Israel's wealth comes almost entirely from its people though, it doesnt have the natural resources that are abundant in other areas of the middle east.
14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.
The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.
Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;
Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.
You do know that Gaza is not occupied by Israel, don't you? It was land that it gave up for peace and from which it removed Jewish settlers.
Or do facts not matter any more?
I love the bit when they go back to "land stolen by Israel" in the 1968 war... It only takes a small poking around to work out the facts of the matter.
Another expert pops up , show us the results of your poking about.
Jordon and Syria attacked Israel in order to destroy the jewish state. Israel fought back and pushed jordon and syria back taking over their territories by force.
Totally justified.
Same as Russia taking Crimea and Ukraine, Saddam taking Kuwait................ Totally justified
It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.
Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...
Nice chat on here today. RochdalePioneer made some very strong posts. Also interesting to see people debating the Israel-Palestine issue in a way that is sometimes extremely critical of Israel and yet isn't remotely anti-Semitic, nor are they getting accused of being anti-Semitic, nor is anybody complaining that "other people aren't letting me complain about Israel because they would say I was being anti-Semitic PS that's because Jews are running the biased media". Good to know it can be done...
I forgot that one. Very good.
And you are right: today has been PB at its very best. I've genuinely learned things today. (Thanks Mr Ydoethur)
"it’s the cast of mind, the way of thinking, that antisemitism represents that we should fear. Conspiracy theory, fake news, demonisation of an unpopular group: what happens to our politics if all these become the norm? This is why Jews have often functioned as a canary in the coalmine: when a society turns on its Jews, it is usually a sign of wider ill health."
But society hasnt turned on its jews. The same head bangers who blamed the jews for everything are still blaming them for everything. Theyve just been given cover for the first time in recent years by the upper echelons of a party that is sympathetic to their cause.
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
The point is, Israel has it all: the land, the wealth, the military power and the water. Any settlement means they share those things with people who don't wish them well. They don't see why they should and they are under no pressure to do so. Israel may talk about existential threats but who are they kidding? Things are hunkydory for them.
Israel's wealth comes almost entirely from its people though, it doesnt have the natural resources that are abundant in other areas of the middle east.
Edit to add: I see Egypt has agreed to a large gas supply contract with Israel. The more the Arab states are tied into Israel economically, the better for peace in the region.
"it’s the cast of mind, the way of thinking, that antisemitism represents that we should fear. Conspiracy theory, fake news, demonisation of an unpopular group: what happens to our politics if all these become the norm? This is why Jews have often functioned as a canary in the coalmine: when a society turns on its Jews, it is usually a sign of wider ill health."
But society hasnt turned on its jews. The same head bangers who blamed the jews for everything are still blaming them for everything. Theyve just been given cover for the first time in recent years by the upper echelons of a party that is sympathetic to their cause.
You may be right, I don't know. Maybe there is some academic evidence on whether anti-jewish views are on the rise?
14 Palestinians killed all on the Gaza side of the border. No Israelis injured. No serious threat reported to any Israeli. Lets hope Corbyn and Co haven't been cowed into silence by those with an agenda because someone has to be able to speak up.
The Israel Defense Forces estimated that over 30,000 Palestinians took part in Hamas-encouraged “March of Return” demonstrations along the Gaza border, focused at six main protest sites where rioters threw firebombs and stones at troops, tried to bomb and breach the security fence, and burned tires.
Army says fatalities include Hamas gunmen trying to breach fence;
Israel has certainly been guilty of over reactions in the past, but 30,000 people rioting and it appears they shot 14 gun men seems quite restrained.
Perhaps they should stop stealing their land and then they would not need to demonstrate at being locked up in pens.
You do know that Gaza is not occupied by Israel, don't you? It was land that it gave up for peace and from which it removed Jewish settlers.
Or do facts not matter any more?
I love the bit when they go back to "land stolen by Israel" in the 1968 war... It only takes a small poking around to work out the facts of the matter.
Another expert pops up , show us the results of your poking about.
Jordon and Syria attacked Israel in order to destroy the jewish state. Israel fought back and pushed jordon and syria back taking over their territories by force.
Totally justified.
Same as Russia taking Crimea and Ukraine, Saddam taking Kuwait................ Totally justified
Did the Ukraine invade Russia or the Crimea?
The Ukraine/Russia/Crimea situation is historically ‘complex”!!!!!! After all, Kiev/Kvyv was at one time the capital of the Rus.
F3: Billy Monger was third on his debut. Tend not to post about other motorsport categories, but that's not bad considering he had both his legs amputated not too long ago. His aim is still to reach F1, so being competitive at lower orders is essential.
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
The point is, Israel has it all: the land, the wealth, the military power and the water. Any settlement means they share those things with people who don't wish them well. They don't see why they should and they are under no pressure to do so. Israel may talk about existential threats but who are they kidding? Things are hunkydory for them.
Israel's wealth comes almost entirely from its people though, it doesnt have the natural resources that are abundant in other areas of the middle east.
Edit to add: I see Egypt has agreed to a large gas supply contract with Israel. The more the Arab states are tied into Israel economically, the better for peace in the region.
Dubai recently bought a water desalination plant from ‘a Middle Eastern country’, as the local press reported it.
As always, the more trade that exists between nations, the more people that are interested in improving the peace.
It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.
Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...
I'm just trying to work out what to buy to use up my ISA allowance before Thursday. I am an engineer. The coincidence of you posting that cartoon scares me!
I've come late to this and I cannot believe that no one has no already mentioned the elephant in the room. Even so ..... Corbyn is not a young man and ageing can strike quickly in many guises. Where does a Corbynless Labour Party go?
The current Israeli government believe that the Palestinian Territories are not a viable state and eventually their 'facts on the ground' will lead to its absorption or at the very least its emasculation into a small landlocked territory under overall Israeli suzerainty. That would also leave Israel with the scope to expand further around Jericho and Beit Shean.
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
The point is, Israel has it all: the land, the wealth, the military power and the water. Any settlement means they share those things with people who don't wish them well. They don't see why they should and they are under no pressure to do so. Israel may talk about existential threats but who are they kidding? Things are hunkydory for them.
Israel's wealth comes almost entirely from its people though, it doesnt have the natural resources that are abundant in other areas of the middle east.
I think that's right. The point though is if you are sharing a space with other people, or, rather, not sharing it, you need to share your wealth as well as the space if you are going to come to a settlement with them. Israelis don't see why they should. I have some understanding for their position. Nevertheless Israel chooses not to make its peace with Palestinians because it doesn't see the advantage in doing so. That Palestinians also make things bad for themselves is secondary. They lack any influence over Israel.
F3: Billy Monger was third on his debut. Tend not to post about other motorsport categories, but that's not bad considering he had both his legs amputated not too long ago. His aim is still to reach F1, so being competitive at lower orders is essential.
Mr Dancer, a long time ago I read that, after losing his legs, Douglas Bader found he was better able to withstand acceleration processes because the blood wasn't able to drain so far from his vital organs.
Do you think that effect might also be an advantage in motor racing?
F3: Billy Monger was third on his debut. Tend not to post about other motorsport categories, but that's not bad considering he had both his legs amputated not too long ago. His aim is still to reach F1, so being competitive at lower orders is essential.
Well done Billy, awesome comeback race.
Interview with him from a couple of months ago, amazing character and determination to overcome adversity to reach for his dreams. Oh, and he’s only 18. Https://youtube.com/watch?v=YY7rQXjmMLo
It always seems to me extraordinary that individuals with genuine insight may also luxuriate under a crackpot blind spot.
Not to me. People expert in one field always assume they would be expert in others, but that's simply not true. I had a standup argument with a doctor once who deprecated high City salaries and insisted that (since hid did well at Maths A level) he could do it just as easily. The polite answer (that you need years of practice to get that skilful and that at his age he was no longer capable of the effort and did not possess the ability) did not go down well...
I'm just trying to work out what to buy to use up my ISA allowance before Thursday. I am an engineer. The coincidence of you posting that cartoon scares me!
You don't have to physically buy anything. Put it into a Stocks and Shares ISA (it probably won't pay you interest) keep it in cash until you can find something you want to buy, spread your risk by buying a collective, ETF or Investment Trust, whatever. No time consideration. You can take it out again if you want, it'll be taxed at your then current tax rates as income but that's what'll happen if you don't put it in the ISA.
Comments
Maharaj to SE Marsh, 1 bye, QDK misses a stumping! Marsh ran down the pitch to drive, but the ball went straight on to beat him and hit de Kock on on his left pad as he tried to rise with the bounce. Chance nevertheless. Replays show just as the opportunity came, de Kock was stung by a bee. That could've put him off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQPGA2ZS_ug
But the rest of your post is bullshit, because there was no way an accession treaty would be signed by the Greeks or the Cypriots.
That and there is certainly an all or nothing section that would want to keep going.
Sounds interesting but to be honest I've inherited quite a few books recently that I should get around to first. Don't want it to get to the point where I just have books for display purposes rather than ones I have actually read.
I have often moaned about the focus of PB being on politics instead of political betting, and this illustrates the divide: if PB was a prediction-based environment his predictions and methodology would have been relevant (tho you'd have to strip them of the hidden references first), but in PB's current incarnation where so many argue pro- and con- their political preferences, his political stance became apparent and relevant...to the detriment of all.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/979718827767451650
I think they're wrong, as it happens, but given the overwhelming preponderance of money and materiel on the Israeli side it is a logical if reprehensible assumption. Given Israel now also controls the majority of water supplies - essentially, Lake Kinneret and the desalination plants - they have an additional trump card to play there. The Palestinians are short of water, but they could actually die of thirst if the Israelis so chose.
However, if Israel did not have international support it couldn't last for long, and the way it has acted recently is one of the best ways of ensuring it loses it. That is why they would be from every point of view wiser to seek peace now.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/979900607023800320
ROFLMFAO
Schengen access != to Schengen Membership.
Schengen access is what we have, the South Koreans have, the Albanians have, the Argentinians have, the Venezuelans have, and the Malaysians have. It means that you are allowed visa free access to Schengen. You still need a passport. You simply don't need to pre-apply for a visa online.
Schengen access does not mean you have any right to reside or work. Just as us allowing Americans into the UK without a visa does not mean they are allowed to reside or work.
Even England aren't quite that useless. Why couldn't Smith and Warner have cheated at Brisbane?
In regards to the water I reminds me of watching a video on youtube sometime ago, Jewish American woman who went to Palestine and reported what she saw. One of the basic messages I remember, and at this point she was specifically referring to checkpoints within Palestinian territory, was a basic message of control. Checkpoints, certainly ones that aren't to do with security anyway, water and food are all used as sources of control over the population.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/30/antisemitism-jews-canary-coalmine-fake-news
With regard to your first paragraph, the Israeli government position does presuppose that the Muslim population will not outstrip the Jewish one even without Gaza and perhaps even Ramallah, Hebron and Jericho. Given the extraordinary fertility rates of Palestinian women (4.18) this seems to say the least a bold assumption. It also as you note presupposes ongoing Western, especially American, support and that is also not God-given as Obama showed.
4.18 is incredible.... I just worry it could all get very messy for either side at some point as the logical constraints of what they might really want reach the reality of people that need to be removed to make it happen.
Interesting chat, also enjoyed learning the word suzerainty!
Nice chat on here today. RochdalePioneer made some very strong posts. Also interesting to see people debating the Israel-Palestine issue in a way that is sometimes extremely critical of Israel and yet isn't remotely anti-Semitic, nor are they getting accused of being anti-Semitic, nor is anybody complaining that "other people aren't letting me complain about Israel because they would say I was being anti-Semitic PS that's because Jews are running the biased media". Good to know it can be done...
And you are right: today has been PB at its very best. I've genuinely learned things today. (Thanks Mr Ydoethur)
Edit to add: I see Egypt has agreed to a large gas supply contract with Israel. The more the Arab states are tied into Israel economically, the better for peace in the region.
As always, the more trade that exists between nations, the more people that are interested in improving the peace.
Do you think that effect might also be an advantage in motor racing?
Interview with him from a couple of months ago, amazing character and determination to overcome adversity to reach for his dreams. Oh, and he’s only 18.
Https://youtube.com/watch?v=YY7rQXjmMLo
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