Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as str

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited April 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party

Normally when a leader starts to get into a bit of trouble the enterprising bookmakers begin issuing prices on how long they will survive. We saw that a lot in October after Mrs Mays rather disastrous conference speech. What happened? she sailed through riding the storm and is still there looking even more secure than ever.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    I agree.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 183
    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    Middle aged voters who were scared at the prospect of Mrs May taking away their inheritance.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited April 4

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    Former Greens, former Lib Dems, former SNP, and former non-voters made the difference between Labour winning 40%, and winning 35% or so.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408


    Casino....I'm posting it again for your benefit.
    BTW....I never trust a bloke who doesn't like footie or beer, unless they are gay in which case I give an exemption.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,202
    Betting on Corbyn going early is like betting on Xmas coming early.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,238
    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    edited April 4

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.

    I think Corbyn will lead Labour for as long as he wishes.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 183
    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Yebbet, to be fair, you were saying "scr*w it" and saying you were going to buy Tory seats on the spreads less than 2 hours before the exit poll came out.

    We (almost) all ended up with eggs on our faces that night.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    Former Greens, former Lib Dems, former SNP, and former non-voters made the difference between Labour winning 40%, and winning 35% or so.
    An interesting thread could be a 'what if?' for GE2022 where May turns out to be fairly centrist, and Corbyn continues to be poisonously far Left. Some of those soft-Left voters might desert back to the alternatives again.

    We could see a Tory result of 40-42% again, with Labour on that 35%, and a decent Tory majority for a 3rd+ term.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    Very little. It's the fate of being on the losing side, unexpectedly, in a close referendum that provides much of the ammunition for that.

    It would be interesting, as well, to break down how much of that perception of "cheating" is down to perceived financial advantage, versus perceived unfair campaigning techniques, such as the £350m bus.

    I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,191
    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,290

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Leave 'fighting back' would be counterproductive. All we are seeing now is a natural consequence of the referendum win: before that, leave were the insurgents and remain the status quo. Insurgents are always more interesting for the media than the establishment. Therefore before the vote, leave got the media attention. Now it's been switched.

    The best thing leave can do is produce a good Brexit for the country. That's the way to 'win'; if you fail in that, then it doesn't matter how much you fight on the airwaves: you'll lose.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 183

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    Former Greens, former Lib Dems, former SNP, and former non-voters made the difference between Labour winning 40%, and winning 35% or so.
    An interesting thread could be a 'what if?' for GE2022 where May turns out to be fairly centrist, and Corbyn continues to be poisonously far Left. Some of those soft-Left voters might desert back to the alternatives again.

    We could see a Tory result of 40-42% again, with Labour on that 35%, and a decent Tory majority for a 3rd+ term.
    Could be a reprise of 2015 with Labour frontrunners to at least lead a government, but going backwards instead
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956
    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Leave 'fighting back' would be counterproductive. All we are seeing now is a natural consequence of the referendum win: before that, leave were the insurgents and remain the status quo. Insurgents are always more interesting for the media than the establishment. Therefore before the vote, leave got the media attention. Now it's been switched.

    The best thing leave can do is produce a good Brexit for the country. That's the way to 'win'; if you fail in that, then it doesn't matter how much you fight on the airwaves: you'll lose.
    I think that's correct. If Leave turns out to be okay, then it will become the status quo. If it doesn't, it won't.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,554

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Bollocks. The media was mostly for Leave

    Mail..Sun..Express..Telegraph...S Times... and who has had more appearances on QT than anyone else - Farage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    edited April 4

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Even Leave.eu have given into the PC brigade and taken down their Islamophobic Sadiq Khan tweet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    Personally I don't see it as any different to Labour's manifesto that they went to court to prove was bunkum, or the posters depicting Alex Salmond as a thief in Broxtowe.

    @Cyclefree Vanilla message for you.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    Craziest rumour of election night.

    Tories gonna take Gordon, Banff, Ochill, and Perth & North Perthshire.

    I told my friend to book into rehab PDQ.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,191

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Bollocks. The media was mostly for Leave

    Mail..Sun..Express..Telegraph...S Times... and who has had more appearances on QT than anyone else - Farage.
    What did I post ?

    TV news media mike.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    GIven Canterbury was won by 187 votes at 10:43 AM there is no way anyone could have known it was gone before about 6 AM.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,151

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    Very little. It's the fate of being on the losing side, unexpectedly, in a close referendum that provides much of the ammunition for that.

    It would be interesting, as well, to break down how much of that perception of "cheating" is down to perceived financial advantage, versus perceived unfair campaigning techniques, such as the £350m bus.

    I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
    The £350m certainly won't be cheating if that is somewhere near where the number ends up by 2022....

    It woul certainly be one way to unravel the Remainers' cry of "cheats!!".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,956

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    I disbelieved Canterbury too, and was wrong.

    But, Shipley was not a London, nor university, seat, nor a marginal, so I disbelieved it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    GIven Canterbury was won by 187 votes at 10:43 AM there is no way anyone could have known it was gone before about 6 AM.
    You can tell by looking at the piles of votes and teller returns from the day.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,801
    edited April 4
    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    Former Greens, former Lib Dems, former SNP, and former non-voters made the difference between Labour winning 40%, and winning 35% or so.
    SLab increased their total vote by 10k in 2017 over 2015 (more than half of that was in Ian Murray's constituency alone). Assuming the much touted Unionist tactical vote was an actual thing, I'd say SNP>SLab was minimal and a larger number of Brexity Tartan Tories went SNP>SCon.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    I disbelieved Canterbury too, and was wrong.

    But, Shipley was not a London, nor university, seat, nor a marginal, so I disbelieved it.
    The logic was that Shipley had lots of big houses and the dementia tax played badly.

    Plus looking at the messages from that night, another explanation was just two words, ‘Philip Davies’
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,609

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Even Leave.eu have given into the PC brigade and taken down their Islamophobic Sadiq Khan tweet.
    Good, best not to give them the oxygen of publicity.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,584

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    GIven Canterbury was won by 187 votes at 10:43 AM there is no way anyone could have known it was gone before about 6 AM.
    You can tell by looking at the piles of votes and teller returns from the day.
    And for betting at 25/1 you do not need to be sure. Just knowing things are too close to call in a constituency accustomed to weighing the vote is enough to get your betting boots on.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 11,801

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Bollocks. The media was mostly for Leave

    Mail..Sun..Express..Telegraph...S Times... and who has had more appearances on QT than anyone else - Farage.
    You're forgetting that history has been rewritten. Farage's media appearances were actually a negative for Leave, and they won in spite of him.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,046
    edited April 4

    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    Middle aged voters who were scared at the prospect of Mrs May taking away their inheritance.
    You mean people who actually wanted to keep a smaller inheritance - £23k as opposed to £100k.

    Pensioners who own a home - so have negligible housing costs - and a modest private and or state pension will mostly end up paying for the entire cost of their home care. It's residential care that costs the big bucks and where dementia patients eventually end up.

    Of course how socialist is it to say someone worth £5 million (as they own a £3m house which a charge could be places) but savings of £20k should get free home care in reality - assuming they even get a package from their council which is a big if - but someone who is worth only £50k (in Savings) who rents has to pay 100 per cent of the costs.

    What a shameful system whereby someone who is worth 100 times as much gets something for free whereas the other pays the entire cost - which May tried to suggest should be changed - but failed to explain why.

    Social care is in a shocking state and many homes are frankly a disgrace with poor care staffed by minimum wage earning staff - but hey let's worry about the inheritance not the care of the person who we inherit from.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,489
    If the next election is, say 41% of the Tories, 38% for Labour, how do we think Labour activists will react? Despair or one more heave?
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408
    Back on thread.....there might be value in a Corbyn 2018 bet...he's not going to get ousted, but he may leave voluntarily if he is assured of a successor who can progress the mantle.

    I would guess 2022 seems a long way away for Jezza...especially as it seems he cannot fart at the moment without it appearing in the press with some anti Semitic tag...

    BTW....my opinion of the anti Semitic stuff is just further proof that Corbyn doesn't play politics out of the rulebook, and he's not going to compromise now. Similarly, Russia. The press and the Blairites can huff and puff for all they like, but he is not going to change course now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    GIven Canterbury was won by 187 votes at 10:43 AM there is no way anyone could have known it was gone before about 6 AM.
    You can tell by looking at the piles of votes and teller returns from the day.
    And for betting at 25/1 you do not need to be sure. Just knowing things are too close to call in a constituency accustomed to weighing the vote is enough to get your betting boots on.
    Oh for sure you can tell it is TCTC but it could have just as easily ended up in the pile of this lot..

    bigjohnowls Posts: 9,489
    June 2017
    Amber Rudd is officially an ex MP

    DavidL Posts: 19,121
    June 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:
    Sky predicting 324 - 326 majority

    Its going to be 330. I told you 4.5 hours ago now.

    Paristonda said:
    Hahaha Philip Davies gone. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Best result so far.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,584
    OT -- just got my polling card for the locals. It came in an envelope, whereas for as long as I remember they have been plopped through the door unwrapped. Is this a new measure to prevent cards being stolen and used for personation?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    GIven Canterbury was won by 187 votes at 10:43 AM there is no way anyone could have known it was gone before about 6 AM.
    You can tell by looking at the piles of votes and teller returns from the day.
    And for betting at 25/1 you do not need to be sure. Just knowing things are too close to call in a constituency accustomed to weighing the vote is enough to get your betting boots on.
    Oh for sure you can tell it is TCTC but it could have just as easily ended up in the pile of this lot..

    bigjohnowls Posts: 9,489
    June 2017
    Amber Rudd is officially an ex MP

    DavidL Posts: 19,121
    June 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:
    Sky predicting 324 - 326 majority

    Its going to be 330. I told you 4.5 hours ago now.

    Paristonda said:
    Hahaha Philip Davies gone. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Best result so far.
    Not my finest hour. I was assuming that we would have a repeat of 2015 where the number of Tory seats edged up over the night into a modest majority. If anything in 2017 the Tories went backwards with unexpected losses and only Scotland saving them from a completely ungovernable disaster.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,489
    Peugeot-Cintroen to make its new van in Luton despite Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    brendan16 said:


    Of course how socialist is it to say someone worth £5 million (as they own a £3m house which a charge could be places) but savings of £20k should get free home care in reality - assuming they even get a package from their council which is a big if - but someone who is worth only £50k (in Savings) who rents has to pay 100 per cent of the costs.

    You're absolutely correct - that is shameful and wrong however you look at it. It also creates the most crackers disincentive to rent when you're old, and whilst home ownership vs renting have relative merits it doesn't need artificial tinkering like this.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    On topic I completely agree. The moderate, centrist, electable Labour party has shot its bolt more than once already and has no more shots in the locker. They either sit and grumble over their Prosecco and lattes or they leave. The former looks much more likely to me.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408
    brendan16 said:

    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    Middle aged voters who were scared at the prospect of Mrs May taking away their inheritance.
    You mean people who actually wanted to keep a smaller inheritance - £23k as opposed to £100k.

    Pensioners who own a home - so have negligible housing costs - and a modest private and or state pension will mostly end up paying for the entire cost of their home care. It's residential care that costs the big bucks and where dementia patients eventually end up.

    Of course how socialist is it to say someone worth £5 million (as they own a £3m house which a charge could be places) but savings of £20k should get free home care in reality - assuming they even get a package from their council which is a big if - but someone who is worth only £50k (in Savings) who rents has to pay 100 per cent of the costs.

    What a shameful system whereby someone who is worth 100 times as much gets something for free whereas the other pays the entire cost - which May tried to suggest should be changed - but failed to explain why.

    Social care is in a shocking state and many homes are frankly a disgrace with poor care staffed by minimum wage earning staff - but hey let's worry about the inheritance not the care of the person who we inherit from.
    Brendan....excellent post....and we come at this from completely different perspectives.
    The care system for the elderly is a national disgrace...unless you are one of those who can pay the 5k a month or more, and even then you are warehoused and cared for by people paid a pittance.

    I really do believe that housing old people together, cared by staff on minimum wage, at the end of their lives is utterly inhumane and future generations will not believe we ever went down that route.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    edited April 4
    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..
    The predictions on the correct side look better than the incorrect ones in hindsight (Hastings/Canterbury) but fundamentally they're both TCTC earlyish :)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    Although Shipley is a very different place from Canterbury. (Actually, Shipley itself I can see as being quite Corbyn-friendly - lots of middle-class Greens there - but Bingley, Baildon, Menston and Wilsden are a bit of a different prospect).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    Good morning (again), everyone.

    I have retained all my teeth.

    In less happy news, I agree with Mr. Smithson that the Cult will never desert Corbyn.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,014
    Elliot said:

    Peugeot-Cintroen to make its new van in Luton despite Brexit.

    Shuussssh, don't tell Scott
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,014
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    GIven Canterbury was won by 187 votes at 10:43 AM there is no way anyone could have known it was gone before about 6 AM.
    You can tell by looking at the piles of votes and teller returns from the day.
    And for betting at 25/1 you do not need to be sure. Just knowing things are too close to call in a constituency accustomed to weighing the vote is enough to get your betting boots on.
    Oh for sure you can tell it is TCTC but it could have just as easily ended up in the pile of this lot..

    bigjohnowls Posts: 9,489
    June 2017
    Amber Rudd is officially an ex MP

    DavidL Posts: 19,121
    June 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:
    Sky predicting 324 - 326 majority

    Its going to be 330. I told you 4.5 hours ago now.

    Paristonda said:
    Hahaha Philip Davies gone. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Best result so far.
    Not my finest hour. I was assuming that we would have a repeat of 2015 where the number of Tory seats edged up over the night into a modest majority. If anything in 2017 the Tories went backwards with unexpected losses and only Scotland saving them from a completely ungovernable disaster.
    Indeed I was expecting similar; my one big betting loss since 2006....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    I disbelieved Canterbury too, and was wrong.

    But, Shipley was not a London, nor university, seat, nor a marginal, so I disbelieved it.
    The logic was that Shipley had lots of big houses and the dementia tax played badly.

    Plus looking at the messages from that night, another explanation was just two words, ‘Philip Davies’
    The people saying that have probably not been to the constituency. He is a good local MP (as mavericks and rebels need to be, given that they'll get little support from their party centrally).
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 866

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    Very little. It's the fate of being on the losing side, unexpectedly, in a close referendum that provides much of the ammunition for that.

    It would be interesting, as well, to break down how much of that perception of "cheating" is down to perceived financial advantage, versus perceived unfair campaigning techniques, such as the £350m bus.

    I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
    The £350m certainly won't be cheating if that is somewhere near where the number ends up by 2022....

    It woul certainly be one way to unravel the Remainers' cry of "cheats!!".
    We don't send £350 million per week to the EU and never have.
    That's a pure and simple fact. I find it strange that anyone still tries to say we do.

    If we find £350 million per week extra for the NHS, a big chunk of it was money we were always going to have to send however we wanted.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,357
    edited April 4
    DavidL said:

    On topic I completely agree. The moderate, centrist, electable Labour party has shot its bolt more than once already and has no more shots in the locker. They either sit and grumble over their Prosecco and lattes or they leave. The former looks much more likely to me.

    To pessimistic , Corbyn Skinner Abbott and the hard left , never left in 1994.It changes we are not stuck in ,2018 forever.Anyways IMO it is more likely a soft left leader emerges after Corbyn .
    They will still get trashed by the MSM .Corbyn has shown not to bother trying to get them onside.I bet Ed Milliband now wishes he had been more radical.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    That said, the campaign on all sides was absolutely excruciatingly dull...I've even forgotten who was the LD leader...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 964
    Elliot said:

    If the next election is, say 41% of the Tories, 38% for Labour, how do we think Labour activists will react? Despair or one more heave?

    Bit of both maybe...

    On topic.

    Hard to see Corbyn getting pushed out, presumably the only thing his opponents can force on him is a leadership election which he would almost surely storm through. Either that of it many of the MPs close to him turned, which seems unlikely. As long as still wants to (or believes he needs to) lead Labour and his health is okay its probably his, well for 2018 anyway and I would imagine until the next election.

  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 183
    Elliot said:

    If the next election is, say 41% of the Tories, 38% for Labour, how do we think Labour activists will react? Despair or one more heave?

    The Corbynistas will call foul and say it was fixed. Probably refuse to accept the result.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,014
    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    Not a good time to be a Baggie.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,669
    edited April 4
    On topic:

    Corbyn will stay until the next election shows he is unelectable.

    The “wildcard” is Theresa May. She is one of the few Tory leaders who could lose to Corbyn, as she so nearly did last year.

    Side topic:

    We’ve heard a lot about the dodgy harvesting of Facebook data by Leave. We haven’t heard much about the proliferation of pro-Brexit, fake news pushed by Russia online. How much was that worth to Leave?

    And, it could have made the difference.
    TV was pretty equal Leave v Remain. But newspapers were pro-Leave, as was social media.

    At the end of the day, I don’t find the election particularly safe and it’s another good reason for a vote - this time on the Deal.

    But the real reason Remain lost was because Remain were crap and complacent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    I think my worst betting region was definitely the West Midlands, though fortunately the various betting companies limited my stakes there whereas I was able to plonk down on the Tories in the SW, built up a nice Lib Dem 0-20 seat book, and Labour in London.
    The Tories in Scotland were nice too though I couldn't get the size on I was able to in the Southwest.
    I won a cake for CON gain Mansfield too which was nice :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Bollocks. The media was mostly for Leave

    Mail..Sun..Express..Telegraph...S Times... and who has had more appearances on QT than anyone else - Farage.
    The print media, yes; except the Mirror, FT, Financial Times, Economist, Guardian, Independent, Evening Standard, Mail on Sunday,m, Observer, Scotsman, New Statesman and the Times. But not the broadcast media, which has a far greater reach.

    And other endorsements were overwhelmingly for Remain: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

    Face facts: Remain had a huge advantage across the board, and totally blew it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,923
    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    I’m going to the cathedral of football tonight, hopefully to see Citeh spanked.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969
    houndtang said:

    Elliot said:

    If the next election is, say 41% of the Tories, 38% for Labour, how do we think Labour activists will react? Despair or one more heave?

    The Corbynistas will call foul and say it was fixed. Probably refuse to accept the result.
    Of course they will - fuelled by social media loons, bots and fakes.

    Sooner we move to a post "taken at face value" social media world the better.

    e.g. MSP James Dornan is finding out the hard way that retweeting any old rubbish can be supremely embarrassing.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408


    Indeed I was expecting similar; my one big betting loss since 2006....

    @Mortimer...my big betting loss was 2010 where I was somewhat taken in by the Cleggasm, and POTUS 2008 where I got drunk and lost sense of rationality......
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408

    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    I’m going to the cathedral of football tonight, hopefully to see Citeh spanked.
    You lucky thing you....I'm so excited about tonight. I'm a blue...but if we were to go down, I'd rather us go down to Liverpool than any other team.....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,597
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    I think my worst betting region was definitely the West Midlands, though fortunately the various betting companies limited my stakes there whereas I was able to plonk down on the Tories in the SW, built up a nice Lib Dem 0-20 seat book, and Labour in London.
    The Tories in Scotland were nice too though I couldn't get the size on I was able to in the Southwest.
    I won a cake for CON gain Mansfield too which was nice :)
    Do you mean an actual cake or is that a unit of measurement I'm not familiar with?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,275
    Elliot said:

    Peugeot-Cintroen to make its new van in Luton despite Brexit.

    And it only cost us £9m

    When do I get my van?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,743
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    houndtang said:

    Sean_F said:

    Still astonishing that Jez came within a few thousand votes of becoming Prime Minister last year.

    There are at least two regular pb'ers on here who nearly gave me a heart-attack over that.
    I did the same to Matthew Parker Street with this thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/

    Was before any Scottish results and reliable sources saying Canterbury and Shipley were lost, oh and the Tooting result had just come in.

    They remembered I called Tory Majority and a Leave victory before the networks did.
    Curtice never had the Conservatives on fewer than 311 seats, so I never thought Corbyn would be in a position to govern. I was still shocked by the exit poll, though.
    I just read that thread and thought they actually had lost Shipley - didnt remember that!
    I heard the rumour, but disbelieved it.
    I heard it from two reliable sources.

    One of whom also said Canterbury was gone.

    I struggled to process it.
    GIven Canterbury was won by 187 votes at 10:43 AM there is no way anyone could have known it was gone before about 6 AM.
    You can tell by looking at the piles of votes and teller returns from the day.
    And for betting at 25/1 you do not need to be sure. Just knowing things are too close to call in a constituency accustomed to weighing the vote is enough to get your betting boots on.
    Oh for sure you can tell it is TCTC but it could have just as easily ended up in the pile of this lot..

    bigjohnowls Posts: 9,489
    June 2017
    Amber Rudd is officially an ex MP

    DavidL Posts: 19,121
    June 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:
    Sky predicting 324 - 326 majority

    Its going to be 330. I told you 4.5 hours ago now.

    Paristonda said:
    Hahaha Philip Davies gone. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Best result so far.
    Not my finest hour. I was assuming that we would have a repeat of 2015 where the number of Tory seats edged up over the night into a modest majority. If anything in 2017 the Tories went backwards with unexpected losses and only Scotland saving them from a completely ungovernable disaster.
    I still have the text from No.10 at 9.40pm saying they expected a 40-70 seat majority.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    Completely agree. 2017 was supposed to be another one of those walkovers. Instead it proved to be rather gripping. After 2015 as well we are probably a bit spoilt for excitement on election nights. We are due a dull one.

    For me, 2015 was the exact opposite of 2017. I was delighted that Cameron and Osborne had somehow manufactured a majority but I was in despair at the success of the SNP in Scotland. Avalanche doesn't quite do it credit. Probably the most remarkable achievement by any political party in my adult lifetime.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,759
    F1: Ladbrokes markets are up. There's also a special, 3.75 on Williams not getting a point in the next 5 races. It's a credible possibility, not sure if it counts as value.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193
    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    Completely agree. 2017 was supposed to be another one of those walkovers. Instead it proved to be rather gripping. After 2015 as well we are probably a bit spoilt for excitement on election nights. We are due a dull one.

    For me, 2015 was the exact opposite of 2017. I was delighted that Cameron and Osborne had somehow manufactured a majority but I was in despair at the success of the SNP in Scotland. Avalanche doesn't quite do it credit. Probably the most remarkable achievement by any political party in my adult lifetime.
    I disagree a little about the SNP. While not healthy at the time for one party to have such dominance, that's eased off now but what it has shown is that no party can rely on voters it takes for granted, and that there are no safe seats anywhere in Scotland any more. That has to be a good thing.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,969
    Scott_P said:

    Elliot said:

    Peugeot-Cintroen to make its new van in Luton despite Brexit.

    And it only cost us £9m

    When do I get my van?
    Scott beginning to realise that the strength of the economy post Brexit will depend on the policies of the government of the day and the ingenuity of the citizens of the country rather than being part of an expensive protectionist trading cartel ?

    OPEC members are finding out the hard way that being part of a gang doesn't always work out for the best in the long run...


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    I think my worst betting region was definitely the West Midlands, though fortunately the various betting companies limited my stakes there whereas I was able to plonk down on the Tories in the SW, built up a nice Lib Dem 0-20 seat book, and Labour in London.
    The Tories in Scotland were nice too though I couldn't get the size on I was able to in the Southwest.
    I won a cake for CON gain Mansfield too which was nice :)
    Do you mean an actual cake or is that a unit of measurement I'm not familiar with?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,489
    Scott_P said:

    Elliot said:

    Peugeot-Cintroen to make its new van in Luton despite Brexit.

    And it only cost us £9m

    When do I get my van?
    So the same cost as the Remain leaflet.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408

    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    Completely agree. 2017 was supposed to be another one of those walkovers. Instead it proved to be rather gripping. After 2015 as well we are probably a bit spoilt for excitement on election nights. We are due a dull one.

    For me, 2015 was the exact opposite of 2017. I was delighted that Cameron and Osborne had somehow manufactured a majority but I was in despair at the success of the SNP in Scotland. Avalanche doesn't quite do it credit. Probably the most remarkable achievement by any political party in my adult lifetime.
    I disagree a little about the SNP. While not healthy at the time for one party to have such dominance, that's eased off now but what it has shown is that no party can rely on voters it takes for granted, and that there are no safe seats anywhere in Scotland any more. That has to be a good thing.
    I was going to make sort of the same point...the worst thing about UK politics is that for most people their vote doesn't count....
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    I think my worst betting region was definitely the West Midlands, though fortunately the various betting companies limited my stakes there whereas I was able to plonk down on the Tories in the SW, built up a nice Lib Dem 0-20 seat book, and Labour in London.
    The Tories in Scotland were nice too though I couldn't get the size on I was able to in the Southwest.
    I won a cake for CON gain Mansfield too which was nice :)
    Do you mean an actual cake or is that a unit of measurement I'm not familiar with?
    I thought you were using some geezer slang Pulps.....


    What are your predictions for tonight?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827

    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    Completely agree. 2017 was supposed to be another one of those walkovers. Instead it proved to be rather gripping. After 2015 as well we are probably a bit spoilt for excitement on election nights. We are due a dull one.

    For me, 2015 was the exact opposite of 2017. I was delighted that Cameron and Osborne had somehow manufactured a majority but I was in despair at the success of the SNP in Scotland. Avalanche doesn't quite do it credit. Probably the most remarkable achievement by any political party in my adult lifetime.
    I disagree a little about the SNP. While not healthy at the time for one party to have such dominance, that's eased off now but what it has shown is that no party can rely on voters it takes for granted, and that there are no safe seats anywhere in Scotland any more. That has to be a good thing.
    To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193
    On topic, I agree with Mike. The value is with Corbyn staying the year. He's shown vulnerabilities these last weeks - and the vulnerability of hubris, which is particularly dangerous - but there's unlikely to be any issue that brings matters to a head in such a way that he can be deposed. Brexit won't be easy for him but either there's a relatively easy agreement in October - in which case the pressure will be off Corbyn a bit - or that it won't get serious on the domestic front until December, in which case the divisions will come too late for 2018.

    I don't think that it's a given that Corbyn will serve through to 2022 but it is likely, with all that means for the future of Labour.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,584
    edited April 4
    On cheating -- the biggest cheat came from the Remain side and helped Leave most.

    I refer of course to Conservative gerrymandering -- and in particular the changes to voter registration designed to get rid of Labour supporters. The trouble is, as Cameron belatedly realised, these same groups tended to support Remain. That's why there was a last-minute registration drive with a controversially-extended deadline.

    And it was a double whammy because the more Labour-friendly lists led to Theresa May losing her majority.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,275
    DavidL said:

    To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.

    Did you see the article from Pete Wishart?

    He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 13,817

    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    Completely agree. 2017 was supposed to be another one of those walkovers. Instead it proved to be rather gripping. After 2015 as well we are probably a bit spoilt for excitement on election nights. We are due a dull one.

    For me, 2015 was the exact opposite of 2017. I was delighted that Cameron and Osborne had somehow manufactured a majority but I was in despair at the success of the SNP in Scotland. Avalanche doesn't quite do it credit. Probably the most remarkable achievement by any political party in my adult lifetime.
    I disagree a little about the SNP. While not healthy at the time for one party to have such dominance, that's eased off now but what it has shown is that no party can rely on voters it takes for granted, and that there are no safe seats anywhere in Scotland any more. That has to be a good thing.
    Completely agreed!

    Labour dominating a clear majority of Scottish MPs for more than my entire lifetime led to voters being taken granted far more than the SNP taking nearly all MPs for 2 years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,114
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    I think my worst betting region was definitely the West Midlands, though fortunately the various betting companies limited my stakes there whereas I was able to plonk down on the Tories in the SW, built up a nice Lib Dem 0-20 seat book, and Labour in London.
    The Tories in Scotland were nice too though I couldn't get the size on I was able to in the Southwest.
    I won a cake for CON gain Mansfield too which was nice :)
    Do you mean an actual cake or is that a unit of measurement I'm not familiar with?
    I thought you were using some geezer slang Pulps.....


    What are your predictions for tonight?
    Can't see past Barca at home & this Man City is a cut above the rest of the prem. Though the match is away to Liverpool.

    Home Win Barca, Draw at Anfield ?

    3-1, 2-2 maybe. Not betting on anything mind.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 13,817
    Liverpool at Anfield can on their day defeat anyone. In fact Liverpool on their day can defeat anyone anywhere.

    Man City are the better team but Liverpool have every chance in 90 minutes of a victory, especially at Anfield.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,636

    On topic, I agree with Mike. The value is with Corbyn staying the year. He's shown vulnerabilities these last weeks - and the vulnerability of hubris, which is particularly dangerous - but there's unlikely to be any issue that brings matters to a head in such a way that he can be deposed. Brexit won't be easy for him but either there's a relatively easy agreement in October - in which case the pressure will be off Corbyn a bit - or that it won't get serious on the domestic front until December, in which case the divisions will come too late for 2018.

    I don't think that it's a given that Corbyn will serve through to 2022 but it is likely, with all that means for the future of Labour.

    Corbyn is vulnerable to an internal coup by his own supporters, who may conclude (correctly, I think) that he is an overall drag on the ticket (not to mention the age concerns).

    But not this year - if you're planning for a 2022 election then a new leader around 2020 would probably be about right. The competition amongst the left to be that leader will be intense.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,193
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    Completely agree. 2017 was supposed to be another one of those walkovers. Instead it proved to be rather gripping. After 2015 as well we are probably a bit spoilt for excitement on election nights. We are due a dull one.

    For me, 2015 was the exact opposite of 2017. I was delighted that Cameron and Osborne had somehow manufactured a majority but I was in despair at the success of the SNP in Scotland. Avalanche doesn't quite do it credit. Probably the most remarkable achievement by any political party in my adult lifetime.
    I disagree a little about the SNP. While not healthy at the time for one party to have such dominance, that's eased off now but what it has shown is that no party can rely on voters it takes for granted, and that there are no safe seats anywhere in Scotland any more. That has to be a good thing.
    To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.
    I put this idea forward with a little trepidation, but it's possible that AV could as well? (As indeed could the French two-round system).

    I don't think that AV or 2-round run-offs would have worked that well for the SNP - it would have allowed unionist votes to consolidate - but that's down to the nature of the SNP. In other scenarios - where the dominant party is less divisive and fairly centralist, as in 1997, for example, AV translates a party's lead in votes into an even greater one in seats than FPTP does.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,115

    Cyclefree said:

    Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -

    “This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”

    I agree. But what to do?

    What do you expect when the majority of our TV news media are remainers and easily getting the message out from the remain die hards.

    The leave side need to fight back,laziness has set in on the leave side.
    Bollocks. The media was mostly for Leave

    Mail..Sun..Express..Telegraph...S Times... and who has had more appearances on QT than anyone else - Farage.
    The print media, yes; except the Mirror, FT, Financial Times, Economist, Guardian, Independent, Evening Standard, Mail on Sunday,m, Observer, Scotsman, New Statesman and the Times. But not the broadcast media, which has a far greater reach.

    And other endorsements were overwhelmingly for Remain: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

    Face facts: Remain had a huge advantage across the board, and totally blew it.
    I don't buy that at all. I think it was finely balanced. Where papers were pro remain, it was quite highly caveated. It was the Times, as I recall, who were spectacularly critical of Camerons original deal.

    As for the broadcast media, I don't accept that there was any significant bias towards Remain. The BBC was always presenting a countervailing view from 'leave' whenever some 'expert' or 'grandee' was wheeled out by the remain side.

    The way I see it, there were were two dubious memes that were deployed very effectively by the leave side. One was that 'people are tired of experts', and the second was 'turkey is about to join the EU and 70 million turks are coming to the UK'. On the other hand, the remain side were seeking to rely on general statements like 'stronger in Europe', 'safer in Europe' , and hoping that people would accept this on the authority of the people who were telling them it, which turned out to be insufficient to get them over the line.

    I thought the campaign on both sides was very poor. But I think the idea that leave cheated or there is some underlying conspiracy is nonsense. They won, at least partly because people are tired of experts and don't want 70 million Turks arriving in the UK. As disturbing as that may be, that is democracy, and we have to live with it.

  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408
    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    I think my worst betting region was definitely the West Midlands, though fortunately the various betting companies limited my stakes there whereas I was able to plonk down on the Tories in the SW, built up a nice Lib Dem 0-20 seat book, and Labour in London.
    The Tories in Scotland were nice too though I couldn't get the size on I was able to in the Southwest.
    I won a cake for CON gain Mansfield too which was nice :)
    Do you mean an actual cake or is that a unit of measurement I'm not familiar with?
    I thought you were using some geezer slang Pulps.....


    What are your predictions for tonight?
    Can't see past Barca at home & this Man City is a cut above the rest of the prem. Though the match is away to Liverpool.

    Home Win Barca, Draw at Anfield ?

    3-1, 2-2 maybe. Not betting on anything mind.
    I just stuck a tenner on both those Pulps...13's for the City match, and 10's for Barca...crappy odds mind though for the number of goals....

    I won a good whack on John Isner at the weekend, so what the hell? Betting on sports on the whole is not to make money....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,020
    edited April 4
    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    We know that the Tories finished the election on much the same polling as they started, so there seem to be few Tory to Corbyn switchers, not surprisigly. What Jezza managed was to appeal to the other 58% more than Tories could comprehend, and judging by this thread struggle to do so now.

    Jezza was not the horned demon that the papers made out, but actually a rather popular eccentric Englishman, with a deep and passionate feeling for the downtrodden. He fought on his own terms about domestic issues of fairness, intergenerational justice and a country fit to live in.

    As @NickPalmer has pointed out, votes are not decided by their accountants going over the manifestos, it is an emotional choice about themes and values. Jezza does well with these, and despite his eccentricity has an Emotional Intelligence that connects, particularly outside the Westminster bubble.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,636

    I put this idea forward with a little trepidation, but it's possible that AV could as well? (As indeed could the French two-round system).

    I don't think that AV or 2-round run-offs would have worked that well for the SNP - it would have allowed unionist votes to consolidate - but that's down to the nature of the SNP. In other scenarios - where the dominant party is less divisive and fairly centralist, as in 1997, for example, AV translates a party's lead in votes into an even greater one in seats than FPTP does.

    As indeed the French two-round system did last year, if not quite at SNP levels. 350/577 seats on 32.3% of first-round votes.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,209
    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:

    Elliot said:

    Peugeot-Cintroen to make its new van in Luton despite Brexit.

    And it only cost us £9m

    When do I get my van?
    So the same cost as the Remain leaflet.
    The governments official Remain leaflet costing £9m was election cheating in full sight - and hence seems to be being ignored.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,827
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.

    Did you see the article from Pete Wishart?

    He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...
    No, but I think that is right (if you include their Green lackeys). And I think that unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Salmond majority at Holyrood was another incredible achievement in a system designed to prevent it. Don't think Nicola is in that class. Largest party but well short of a majority would be my guess this far out.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,664
    Foxy said:

    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    We know that the Tories finished the election on much the same polling as they started, so there seem to be few Tory to Corbyn switchers, not surprisigly. What Jezza managed was to appeal to the other 58% more than Tories could comprehend, and judging by this thread struggle to do so now.

    Jezza was not the horned demon that the papers made out, but actually a rather popular eccentric Englishman, with a deep and passionate feeling for the downtrodden. He fought on his own terms about domestic issues of fairness, intergenerational justice and a country fit to live in.

    As @NickPalmer has pointed out, votes are not decided by their accountants going over the manifestos, it is an emotional choice about themes and values. Jezza does well with these, and despite his eccentricity has an Emotional Intelligence that connects, particularly outside the Westminster bubble.
    How is he doing with the Jews do you think?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,115

    On topic, I agree with Mike. The value is with Corbyn staying the year. He's shown vulnerabilities these last weeks - and the vulnerability of hubris, which is particularly dangerous - but there's unlikely to be any issue that brings matters to a head in such a way that he can be deposed. Brexit won't be easy for him but either there's a relatively easy agreement in October - in which case the pressure will be off Corbyn a bit - or that it won't get serious on the domestic front until December, in which case the divisions will come too late for 2018.

    I don't think that it's a given that Corbyn will serve through to 2022 but it is likely, with all that means for the future of Labour.

    Corbyn is vulnerable to an internal coup by his own supporters, who may conclude (correctly, I think) that he is an overall drag on the ticket (not to mention the age concerns).

    But not this year - if you're planning for a 2022 election then a new leader around 2020 would probably be about right. The competition amongst the left to be that leader will be intense.
    I think that Corbyn is safe as long as he has broad support with the membership, as no-one else on the left has the same personal appeal. This is true even if he is vulnerable with the wider electorate.

    I think the probability is that once he has control of the party apparatus (which he seems to at the moment), he will step down. He was very close to stepping down after Brexit. So a 2018 exit may not be that unrealistic, but 3/1 is not good value.

  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,209
    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL The post wasn't about your prediction particularly, more that "very close" results can't be predicted so early in the night..

    Oh no worries. I was not offended.

    It was a weird night, elated at the results in Scotland (Alex Salmond being a true highlight) but bewildered at what those Sassenachs were playing at down south. Watching Balls and Osborne through the internet was another pleasure. Some elections don't stay long in the memory. That one will.
    1987, 2001, 2005 were particularly boring nights.....

    The hegemony of Thatcher and Blair made election nights akin to watching Man City play West Brom.....
    Not a good time to be a Baggie.
    Good that they at least are still standing up for the Albion.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,408
    Foxy said:

    houndtang said:

    Has it been satisfactorily explained yet how Labour got 40% ? Apart from vague stuff about youth and collapsing UKIP it is still not clear who .voted for the berk.

    We know that the Tories finished the election on much the same polling as they started, so there seem to be few Tory to Corbyn switchers, not surprisigly. What Jezza managed was to appeal to the other 58% more than Tories could comprehend, and judging by this thread struggle to do so now.

    Jezza was not the horned demon that the papers made out, but actually a rather popular eccentric Englishman, with a deep and passionate feeling for the downtrodden. He fought on his own terms about domestic issues of fairness, intergenerational justice and a country fit to live in.

    As @NickPalmer has pointed out, votes are not decided by their accountants going over the manifestos, it is an emotional choice about themes and values. Jezza does well with these, and despite his eccentricity has an Emotional Intelligence that connects, particularly outside the Westminster bubble.

    Good post Foxy....kind of explains why someone like Corbyn has grown on people like us...the Russia and anti semitic stuff is going to get as much traction as a coach stuck in a snowstorm....

    Corbyn is quintessentially and eccentrically English. You'd trust him to look after your kids and you would always appreciate bumping into him in the street to have a quick natter...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,584
    edited April 4
    Deleted as too lazy to recast sentence. Grammar and stuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,824
    The fact Corbyn has twice won the Labour membership vote and did better than expected at the general election should mean he is secure as Labour leader until the next general election.

    If the Tories win the next general election with an overall majority then he might depart
This discussion has been closed.