At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Boris probably assumed that his spell as ForSec would be an audition for the big chair. Hasn't exactly worked out that way for him.
For most Tories or potential Tories Boris' claim that Russia was responsible is irrefutable.
Left of centre voters and hard-core Remainers are dissing Boris but they would never vote Tory at the next general election anyway nor for a Boris led Tory Party regardless of what he said
Boris is not on my list for next leader and never will be
Maybe not but 8 out of 10 of the top 10 Tory target seats from Labour they need for a majority next time are Labour Leave seats and you were a Remainer
But the next election will be post Brexit. My dislike for Boris is not Brexit related, he just cannot be trusted in high office
How often do they do that for such a serious charge though? Could the family of the deceased then ask for a JR of the decision not to prosecute, causing the accused to incur a large legal bill to defend himself?
They can bring a private prosecution, and I suppose in an extreme case a JR. Neither would be cheap though, and it's very uncommon for a CPS decision not to go ahead with a charge to be challenged.
If you bring a JR, the respondent is the CPS, not the accused, because you are asking the court to review the decision by the CPS not to prosecute.
I am not aware of any case where permission has been granted to bring a private prosecution on a charge of murder, a crime obviously within the purview of the CPS. Indeed, the vast majority of private prosecutions are brought by statutorily authorised bodies, for example the NSPCA.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Surely the Mogg is even more unthinkable than the Boris ! Which leaves by elimination.. Gove.
To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.
Did you see the article from Pete Wishart?
He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...
No, but I think that is right (if you include their Green lackeys). And I think that unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Salmond majority at Holyrood was another incredible achievement in a system designed to prevent it. Don't think Nicola is in that class. Largest party but well short of a majority would be my guess this far out.
still nearly 3 years to go David, lot of water to go under the bridge before then.
Very true Malcom, very true. But the paint is starting to peel.
Decorators will be in soon PS: major dilemma for Sturgeon, if she does not have another ref whilst they have the majority she could be in big trouble.
I agree that is a problem for her. I guess she will push it through Holyrood and then have May say no to create a further grievance. But her position of waiting to see what comes from Brexit is already looking a dangerous hostage to fortune for her.
I think she has to wait and see how good/bad Brexit is going to look. Then hope May blocks it.
The transition period ends in December 2020.
The next Holyrood elections are in May 2021 and on current polling will produce a Unionist majority anyway
We will know how bad it is by end of this year, also whether Tories will keep the devolution powers they stole, etc , etc. plenty of time to get it done 2019-2020
The transition period means we are effectively in the EU in all but name until 2021 and the next Holyrood elections
No it does not , we are out in 2019. We are just on hook to follow rules and pay bills from outside after that till end of transition.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
The next leader is likely to be female but there is a pool of candidates that will emerge when the time comes. It will not be Boris, time to go and edit a newspaper where being accident prone does not matter, as long as you have good insurance cover
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -
“This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”
I agree. But what to do?
Very little. It's the fate of being on the losing side, unexpectedly, in a close referendum that provides much of the ammunition for that.
It would be interesting, as well, to break down how much of that perception of "cheating" is down to perceived financial advantage, versus perceived unfair campaigning techniques, such as the £350m bus.
I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
The £350m certainly won't be cheating if that is somewhere near where the number ends up by 2022....
It woul certainly be one way to unravel the Remainers' cry of "cheats!!".
We don't send £350 million per week to the EU and never have. That's a pure and simple fact. I find it strange that anyone still tries to say we do.
If we find £350 million per week extra for the NHS, a big chunk of it was money we were always going to have to send however we wanted.
The correct number was £288 million a week. Such a large number that I always wondered why Leave chose to go with the £350 million. They could have gone with the real number and it would still have had the same impact without any of the consequences of being labelled dishonest
I understood that the point was to have a dishonest number larger than the real number but still within a close order of magnitude of it - to provoke the other campaign to go on about it and ensure maximum cut-through and have a "big number versus big number - even the Remain side are saying it's a big number" theme. Deliberately dishonest, true, but clever. A move towards Trumpian methods, but not all the way there.
And yet, we may still have a Very Large Number (perhaps nearer to £288m a week, but maybe yet heading towards £350m) added to the NHS budget by the time of the next election. So who will look dishonest then?
As the (imaginary) Brexit Bonus will not have appeared, the £350 million per week will have come from elsewhere, demonstrating that Austerity was chosen rather than forced.
I can see that we are in for another round of NHS bulemia, of starving then bingeing.
To win 56/59 seats was an astonishing achievement. Scottish Labour had been a tottering edifice for years hollowed out, unloved and neglected but the extent of its demolition was incredible. The Scottish Liberal Democrats were in a similar position. Of course only FPTP could really deliver a result like that in a true democracy. I don't think we will see the like again.
Did you see the article from Pete Wishart?
He seems to be suggesting Indyref2 will require another SNP majority at Holyrood...
No, but I think that is right (if you include their Green lackeys). And I think that unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Salmond majority at Holyrood was another incredible achievement in a system designed to prevent it. Don't think Nicola is in that class. Largest party but well short of a majority would be my guess this far out.
still nearly 3 years to go David, lot of water to go under the bridge before then.
Very true Malcom, very true. But the paint is starting to peel.
Decorators will be in soon PS: major dilemma for Sturgeon, if she does not have another ref whilst they have the majority she could be in big trouble.
I agree that is a problem for her. I guess she will push it through Holyrood and then have May say no to create a further grievance. But her position of waiting to see what comes from Brexit is already looking a dangerous hostage to fortune for her.
I think she has to wait and see how good/bad Brexit is going to look. Then hope May blocks it.
The transition period ends in December 2020.
The next Holyrood elections are in May 2021 and on current polling will produce a Unionist majority anyway
We will know how bad it is by end of this year, also whether Tories will keep the devolution powers they stole, etc , etc. plenty of time to get it done 2019-2020
The transition period means we are effectively in the EU in all but name until 2021 and the next Holyrood elections
No it does not , we are out in 2019. We are just on hook to follow rules and pay bills from outside after that till end of transition.
Which in practical terms means there will be virtually no chamge to either Scotland or the rest of the UK post Brexit until 2021 as our relationship with the EU remains virtually unchanged as when we were a member until the transition period ends
Boris' claim was daft. Here's what he *should* have said.
"Porton Down has made clear the agent is indeed Novichok, and our intelligence sources confirm this can only have come from Russia".
He just cannot help grandstanding
Hi Maic - did you see my apology to you at 1.49
G I did not but thanks anyway , I was not bothered in any case, I know you are a Gentleman. I know it was hard to believe Boris could be as stupid and prove yet again that he is in wrong job.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Surely the Mogg is even more unthinkable than the Boris ! Which leaves by elimination.. Gove.
Boris' claim was daft. Here's what he *should* have said.
"Porton Down has made clear the agent is indeed Novichok, and our intelligence sources confirm this can only have come from Russia".
He just cannot help grandstanding
Hi Maic - did you see my apology to you at 1.49
G I did not but thanks anyway , I was not bothered in any case, I know you are a Gentleman. I know it was hard to believe Boris could be as stupid and prove yet again that he is in wrong job.
Agreed - he just cannot be trusted but I was wrong hence the apology. All the best
Being far left does not mean hating everything about Britain - that's a complete non-sequitur, and IMO is in fact simply false both in general and in his specific case.
They don't hate everything about Britain, just the monarchy, the army, the navy, the RAF, the police, the court system, the City, big business, small traders, farmers, homeowners, the middle classes, successful schools, the best universities, the countryside, and most of our cultural heritage.
You sound like an SWP leaflet about the Tories. Speaking for myself, I come from an Army/Navy family which I'm proud of, I've worked in senior management of a big mutlinational and also run two successful small companies, I've got a PhD from London, and I live in the countryside. (But I agree that our pizzas are rubbish - not enough pineapple and anchovies.)
Moving beyond samples of 1, all political traditions have the usual mixtures of attitudes and motives, and it's simply a lazy mistake to think that our various beliefs tell you anything about them.
The orthodoxies written on here about communist governance are broadly true. And what I see from Corbyn's actions is wall to wall orthodoxy in believing in that strand of governance, from who he meets, to who he praises, to how he runs the party. If there are subtleties to his world view, how he sees himself as different from those in the countries that get referenced here time and again - Venezuela, Cuba, Russia - I have never seen that larger ideological case made by him. 'Oh, we are in a democracy' does not cut the mustard for Western communism, you need to say how it makes what you believe, how you will act, different from the places mentioned above.
Another strand to his ideology is, of course, his 'peace' activities. I would dearly like to see the full confessional, the what he did when, who said what, what he was thinking, what he was specifically trying to achieve at each step - a full hour, dedicated solely to that aspect, with Piers Morgan would be ideal.
Instead, we get dissembly, actions that speak louder than words, and it is always, always consistent with communist orthodoxy. As people note, he CAN campaign, so why did the anti-semitism and Brexit campaigns go off half cock and the GE fly? Because, imho, they were quoshed under the leftism that trumps everything.
Why on earth would I hold a nuanced view of Corbyn, when nothing aside his personal manner hints at the remotest bit of nuance on his part.
Boris probably assumed that his spell as ForSec would be an audition for the big chair. Hasn't exactly worked out that way for him.
For most Tories or potential Tories Boris' claim that Russia was responsible is irrefutable.
Left of centre voters and hard-core Remainers are dissing Boris but they would never vote Tory at the next general election anyway nor for a Boris led Tory Party regardless of what he said
Boris is not on my list for next leader and never will be
Maybe not but 8 out of 10 of the top 10 Tory target seats from Labour they need for a majority next time are Labour Leave seats and you were a Remainer
But the next election will be post Brexit. My dislike for Boris is not Brexit related, he just cannot be trusted in high office
How often do they do that for such a serious charge though? Could the family of the deceased then ask for a JR of the decision not to prosecute, causing the accused to incur a large legal bill to defend himself?
They can bring a private prosecution, and I suppose in an extreme case a JR. Neither would be cheap though, and it's very uncommon for a CPS decision not to go ahead with a charge to be challenged.
If you bring a JR, the respondent is the CPS, not the accused, because you are asking the court to review the decision by the CPS not to prosecute.
I am not aware of any case where permission has been granted to bring a private prosecution on a charge of murder, a crime obviously within the purview of the CPS. Indeed, the vast majority of private prosecutions are brought by statutorily authorised bodies, for example the NSPCA.
I’m more interested in the other side of this. How often have the CPS said it’s not in the public interest to prosecute a homicide, in the face of incontrovertible evidence of the guilt of the accused?
Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -
“This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”
I agree. But what to do?
Very little. It's the fate of being on the losing side, unexpectedly, in a close referendum that provides much of the ammunition for that.
It would be interesting, as well, to break down how much of that perception of "cheating" is down to perceived financial advantage, versus perceived unfair campaigning techniques, such as the £350m bus.
I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
The £350m certainly won't be cheating if that is somewhere near where the number ends up by 2022....
It woul certainly be one way to unravel the Remainers' cry of "cheats!!".
We don't send £350 million per week to the EU and never have. That's a pure and simple fact. I find it strange that anyone still tries to say we do.
If we find £350 million per week extra for the NHS, a big chunk of it was money we were always going to have to send however we wanted.
The correct number was £288 million a week. Such a large number that I always wondered why Leave chose to go with the £350 million. They could have gone with the real number and it would still have had the same impact without any of the consequences of being labelled dishonest
I understood that the point was to have a dishonest number larger than the real number but still within a close order of magnitude of it - to provoke the other campaign to go on about it and ensure maximum cut-through and have a "big number versus big number - even the Remain side are saying it's a big number" theme. Deliberately dishonest, true, but clever. A move towards Trumpian methods, but not all the way there.
And yet, we may still have a Very Large Number (perhaps nearer to £288m a week, but maybe yet heading towards £350m) added to the NHS budget by the time of the next election. So who will look dishonest then?
It'll be more than that - the Tories are terrified of going through a budget without throwing more money at the NHS
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
it's not just stagnation....it's extreme inequality that is plaguing western economies. Politicians talk austerity...yet people with assets, portfolios, property...have become much wealthier over these last years for doing very little.
The Tories are beginning to cotton on to the fact that the Govt needs to intervene in markets more. Unfettered capitalism brings on SportsDirect and Philip Green plundering pensions....as well as causing untold environmental destruction. Wealth rather than income needs to be taxed more and distributed. The next Tory manifesto is going to be the most leftward of any in recent memory...to the left of Ed Miliband....as the Tories fight Labour on populist left territory.
The Tories are certainly not going to tax wealth more, half the reason they lost their majority last time was the disastrous dementia tax plan.
They are pushing more housebuilding and let us not forget it was Osborne who increased the minimum wage
The problem with the dementia tax is that no-one understood it...it was a good policy and actually sought to protect wealth.
Housebuilding and minimum wage ain't going to cut it to pay the bills.
I could quite easily see the Tories going into the next election with some mansion/wealth tax...something easy to sell...
Ultimately Hufud, any government of whichever political complexion needs to get much more into assets. If the economy stagnates further, and wealth becomes more unequal, people will vote with their feet. The Tories are not stupid...do they want power or not?
So property, private based share portfolios, pensions...it's not rocket science to know where the wealth is. And it has to go after wealth that people cannot just seamlessly take out the country...properties, portfolios and pensions- the 3 P's. Corporation tax is just to easy to avoid.
But the three P's are difficult to avoid if the assets are based in the UK...and it needs to be more than just capital gains.
A 1% tax on all UK based funds...including pensions. Transactions taxes too if people try and sell them. How much would that bring? And if it works, you quietly increase it.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Can’t imagine the MPs will nominate him, and can’t imagine the members will vote for him. His tenure as FS has been a good demonstration of the Peter Principle.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Boris is the real loser from the Corbyn anti-semitism row. Boris's history of racist (and other) comments will stop him getting the leadership -- and it will be his Conservative rivals for the top job who will ensure wall-to-wall coverage following the Guido/Corbyn template.
In fact, it might even mean the PM can sack him without knocking down the whole house of cards, but Boris is already favourite for first out of the cabinet.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Boris is not unthinkable at any time that JRM is under consideration, subject to developments personal to Boris.
How often do they do that for such a serious charge though? Could the family of the deceased then ask for a JR of the decision not to prosecute, causing the accused to incur a large legal bill to defend himself?
They can bring a private prosecution, and I suppose in an extreme case a JR. Neither would be cheap though, and it's very uncommon for a CPS decision not to go ahead with a charge to be challenged.
If you bring a JR, the respondent is the CPS, not the accused, because you are asking the court to review the decision by the CPS not to prosecute.
I am not aware of any case where permission has been granted to bring a private prosecution on a charge of murder, a crime obviously within the purview of the CPS. Indeed, the vast majority of private prosecutions are brought by statutorily authorised bodies, for example the NSPCA.
I’m more interested in the other side of this. How often have the CPS said it’s not in the public interest to prosecute a homicide, in the face of incontrovertible evidence of the guilt of the accused?
Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -
“This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing to ignore an inconvenient poll finding. Roughly a quarter of the population believe that the referendum was won by cheating. That has big implications for the democratic process.”
I agree. But what to do?
Very little. It's the fate of being on the losing side, unexpectedly, in a close referendum that provides much of the ammunition for that.
It would be interesting, as well, to break down how much of that perception of "cheating" is down to perceived financial advantage, versus perceived unfair campaigning techniques, such as the £350m bus.
I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
The £350m certainly won't be cheating if that is somewhere near where the number ends up by 2022....
It woul certainly be one way to unravel the Remainers' cry of "cheats!!".
We don't send £350 million per week to the EU and never have. That's a pure and simple fact. I find it strange that anyone still tries to say we do.
If we find £350 million per week extra for the NHS, a big chunk of it was money we were always going to have to send however we wanted.
The correct number was £288 million a week. Such a large number that I always wondered why Leave chose to go with the £350 million. They could have gone with the real number and it would still have had the same impact without any of the consequences of being labelled dishonest
I understood that the point was to have a dishonest number larger than the real number but still within a close order of magnitude of it - to provoke the other campaign to go on about it and ensure maximum cut-through and have a "big number versus big number - even the Remain side are saying it's a big number" theme. Deliberately dishonest, true, but clever. A move towards Trumpian methods, but not all the way there.
And yet, we may still have a Very Large Number (perhaps nearer to £288m a week, but maybe yet heading towards £350m) added to the NHS budget by the time of the next election. So who will look dishonest then?
Ah, the difference between looking dishonest, and being dishonest. True, perception versus reality can save politicians.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Boris is the real loser from the Corbyn anti-semitism row. Boris's history of racist (and other) comments will stop him getting the leadership -- and it will be his Conservative rivals for the top job who will ensure wall-to-wall coverage following the Guido/Corbyn template.
In fact, it might even mean the PM can sack him without knocking down the whole house of cards, but Boris is already favourite for first out of the cabinet.
And that is without novichok-twittergate!
Nope as the only people who think Boris is racist are leftwingers and diehard Remainers who will not be voting Tory anyway
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
it's not just stagnation....it's extreme inequality that is plaguing western economies. Politicians talk austerity...yet people with assets, portfolios, property...have become much wealthier over these last years for doing very little.
The Tories are beginning to cotton on to the fact that the Govt needs to intervene in markets more. Unfettered capitalism brings on SportsDirect and Philip Green plundering pensions....as well as causing untold environmental destruction. Wealth rather than income needs to be taxed more and distributed. The next Tory manifesto is going to be the most leftward of any in recent memory...to the left of Ed Miliband....as the Tories fight Labour on populist left territory.
The Tories are certainly not going to tax wealth more, half the reason they lost their majority last time was the disastrous dementia tax plan.
They are pushing more housebuilding and let us not forget it was Osborne who increased the minimum wage
The problem with the dementia tax is that no-one understood it...it was a good policy and actually sought to protect wealth.
Housebuilding and minimum wage ain't going to cut it to pay the bills.
I could quite easily see the Tories going into the next election with some mansion/wealth tax...something easy to sell...
Ultimately Hufud, any government of whichever political complexion needs to get much more into assets. If the economy stagnates further, and wealth becomes more unequal, people will vote with their feet. The Tories are not stupid...do they want power or not?
So property, private based share portfolios, pensions...it's not rocket science to know where the wealth is. And it has to go after wealth that people cannot just seamlessly take out the country...properties, portfolios and pensions- the 3 P's. Corporation tax is just to easy to avoid.
But the three P's are difficult to avoid if the assets are based in the UK...and it needs to be more than just capital gains.
A 1% tax on all UK based funds...including pensions. Transactions taxes too if people try and sell them. How much would that bring? And if it works, you quietly increase it.
The Tories are not going to win by bombing their own base of pensioners and middle aged voters hoping to inherit and wealthy home owners.
At most they will introduce a hypothecated National Insurance rise for the NHS and social care, that will be it
Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -
I agree. But what to do?
Very little. It's the fate of being on the losing side, unexpectedly, in a close referendum that pr I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
The £350m certainly won't be cheating if that is somewhere near where the number ends up by 2022....
It woul certainly be one way to unravel the Remainers' cry of "cheats!!".
We don't send £350 million per week to the EU and never have. That's a pure and simple fact. I find it strange that anyone still tries to say we do.
If we find £350 million per week extra for the NHS, a big chunk of it was money we were always going to have to send however we wanted.
The correct number was £288 million a week. Such a large number that I always wondered why Leave chose to go with the £350 million. They could have gone with the real number and it would still have had the same impact without any of the consequences of being labelled dishonest
I understood that the point was to have a dishonest number larger than the real number but still within a close order of magnitude of it - to provoke the other campaign to go on about it and ensure maximum cut-through and have a "big number versus big number - even the Remain side are saying it's a big number" theme. Deliberately dishonest, true, but clever. A move towards Trumpian methods, but not all the way there.
And yet, we may still have a Very Large Number (perhaps nearer to £288m a week, but maybe yet heading towards £350m) added to the NHS budget by the time of the next election. So who will look dishonest then?
As the (imaginary) Brexit Bonus will not have appeared, the £350 million per week will have come from elsewhere, demonstrating that Austerity was chosen rather than forced.
I can see that we are in for another round of NHS bulemia, of starving then bingeing.
The NHS has never starved in its life. It's like a thirty stone patient who thinks 4,000 calories a day is normal having to reduce their intake to the average 2,500. It's only starving if you are only used to gorging. (the analogy currently would be a 4,000 a day diet to a 3,920 calorie a day diet)
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Can’t imagine the MPs will nominate him, and can’t imagine the members will vote for him. His tenure as FS has been a good demonstration of the Peter Principle.
He had his opportunity and he has proved he is unreliable and unsuited to be leader
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
How often do they do that for such a serious charge though? Could the family of the deceased then ask for a JR of the decision not to prosecute, causing the accused to incur a large legal bill to defend himself?
They can bring a private prosecution, and I suppose in an extreme case a JR. Neither would be cheap though, and it's very uncommon for a CPS decision not to go ahead with a charge to be challenged.
If you bring a JR, the respondent is the CPS, not the accused, because you are asking the court to review the decision by the CPS not to prosecute.
I am not aware of any case where permission has been granted to bring a private prosecution on a charge of murder, a crime obviously within the purview of the CPS. Indeed, the vast majority of private prosecutions are brought by statutorily authorised bodies, for example the NSPCA.
I’m more interested in the other side of this. How often have the CPS said it’s not in the public interest to prosecute a homicide, in the face of incontrovertible evidence of the guilt of the accused?
Yes, that’s true but a very different case given the police involvement.
I mean, has there ever been someone killed, with clear evidence of the killing, that the CPS decided not to prosecute?
I can’t think of one, hence my idea that you’d charge the guy with manslaughter then send a CPS lawyer to the magistrate to say that the Crown intends to offer no evidence in the case. He’d be acquitted immediately, and be subject to the double jeopardy law if they ever wanted to reopen the case.
Sorry to go off topic so soon but in response to this comment by Mr Meeks on the previous thread -
“This morning has consisted largely of Leavers choosing
I agree. But what to do?
Very little. It's the fate of being on the losing side, unexpectedly, in a close referendum that provides much of the ammunition for that.
It would be interesting, as well, to break down how much of that perception of "cheating" is down to perceived financial advantage, versus perceived unfair campaigning techniques, such as the £350m bus.
I think the former is a red herring, whereas I do think the £350m for the NHS bus had an impact even though I'd never call it cheating myself.
The £350m certainly won't be cheating if that is somewhere near where the number ends up by 2022....
It woul certainly be one way to unravel the Remainers' cry of "cheats!!".
We don't send £350 million per week to the EU and never have. That's a pure and simple fact. I find it strange that anyone still tries to say we do.
If we find £350 million per week extra for the NHS, a big chunk of it was money we were always going to have to send however we wanted.
The correct number was £288 million a week.
I understood that the point was to have a dishonest number larger than the real number but still within a close order of magnitude of it - to provoke the other campaign to go on about it and ensure maximum cut-through and have a "big number versus big number - even the Remain side are saying it's a big number" theme. Deliberately dishonest, true, but clever. A move towards Trumpian methods, but not all the way there.
And yet, we may still have a Very Large Number (perhaps nearer to £288m a week, but maybe yet heading towards £350m) added to the NHS budget by the time of the next election. So who will look dishonest then?
It'll be more than that - the Tories are terrified of going through a budget without throwing more money at the NHS
last week the CEO of the NHS quietly slipped out the abandonment of waiting time targets for elective surgery. This is largely forced by the continuing bed crisis. No way does the government want this in the headlines in the run up to the next election.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Can’t imagine the MPs will nominate him, and can’t imagine the members will vote for him. His tenure as FS has been a good demonstration of the Peter Principle.
He had his opportunity and he has proved he is unreliable and unsuited to be leader
Agree completely, Mrs May played a blinder in giving him a serious job.
There’s no way the PM is going to fire him over this particular issue, unless he continues to f. up, but he’s made it clear to her that he’s disposable at the next reshuffle.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
How often do they do that for such a serious charge though? Could the family of the deceased then ask for a JR of the decision not to prosecute, causing the accused to incur a large legal bill to defend himself?
They can bring a private prosecution, and I suppose in an extreme case a JR. Neither would be cheap though, and it's very uncommon for a CPS decision not to go ahead with a charge to be challenged.
If you bring a JR, the respondent is the CPS, not the accused, because you are asking the court to review the decision by the CPS not to prosecute.
I am not aware of any case where permission has been granted to bring a private prosecution on a charge of murder, a crime obviously within the purview of the CPS. Indeed, the vast majority of private prosecutions are brought by statutorily authorised bodies, for example the NSPCA.
I’m more interested in the other side of this. How often have the CPS said it’s not in the public interest to prosecute a homicide, in the face of incontrovertible evidence of the guilt of the accused?
Yes, that’s true but a very different case given the police involvement.
I mean, has there ever been someone killed, with clear evidence of the killing, that the CPS decided not to prosecute?
I can’t think of one, hence my idea that you’d charge the guy with manslaughter then send a CPS lawyer to the magistrate to say that the Crown intends to offer no evidence in the case. He’d be acquitted immediately, and be subject to the double jeopardy law if they ever wanted to reopen the case.
The Tories are not going to win by bombing their own base of pensioners and middle aged voters hoping to inherit and wealthy home owners.
At most they will introduce a hypothecated National Insurance rise for the NHS and social care, that will be it
@Huyud.....A NI rise would be the worst of all worlds...an income tax hitting the squeezed middle most..
Many of Corbyn's supporters are reasonably affluent liberals who are willing to pay more for a fairer society. The Tories need to press those buttons amongst their wealthier base...if wealthy liberals are willing to listen to it, why can't wealthy Tories?
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Can’t imagine the MPs will nominate him, and can’t imagine the members will vote for him. His tenure as FS has been a good demonstration of the Peter Principle.
He had his opportunity and he has proved he is unreliable and unsuited to be leader
Agree completely, Mrs May played a blinder in giving him a serious job.
There’s no way the PM is going to fire him over this particular issue, unless he continues to f. up, but he’s made it clear to her that he’s disposable at the next reshuffle.
If she tries that she may well be firing her replacement, which is why she won't move him, he is the only box office Tory
How often do they do that for such a serious charge though? Could the family of the deceased then ask for a JR of the decision not to prosecute, causing the accused to incur a large legal bill to defend himself?
They can bring a private prosecution, and I suppose in an extreme case a JR. Neither would be cheap though, and it's very uncommon for a CPS decision not to go ahead with a charge to be challenged.
If you bring a JR, the respondent is the CPS, not the accused, because you are asking the court to review the decision by the CPS not to prosecute.
I am not aware of any case where permission has been granted to bring a private prosecution on a charge of murder, a crime obviously within the purview of the CPS. Indeed, the vast majority of private prosecutions are brought by statutorily authorised bodies, for example the NSPCA.
I’m more interested in the other side of this. How often have the CPS said it’s not in the public interest to prosecute a homicide, in the face of incontrovertible evidence of the guilt of the accused?
Yes, that’s true but a very different case given the police involvement.
I mean, has there ever been someone killed, with clear evidence of the killing, that the CPS decided not to prosecute?
I can’t think of one, hence my idea that you’d charge the guy with manslaughter then send a CPS lawyer to the magistrate to say that the Crown intends to offer no evidence in the case. He’d be acquitted immediately, and be subject to the double jeopardy law if they ever wanted to reopen the case.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Boris is the real loser from the Corbyn anti-semitism row. Boris's history of racist (and other) comments will stop him getting the leadership -- and it will be his Conservative rivals for the top job who will ensure wall-to-wall coverage following the Guido/Corbyn template.
In fact, it might even mean the PM can sack him without knocking down the whole house of cards, but Boris is already favourite for first out of the cabinet.
And that is without novichok-twittergate!
Nope as the only people who think Boris is racist are leftwingers and diehard Remainers who will not be voting Tory anyway
You miss the point that it will be the other leadership candidates pointing this out, and showing their portfolios of Boris's "unfortunate remarks" to any waverers in the tea-rooms; not Corbyn; not Momentum. Like you, I used to believe Boris's USP as a winner would see him home but after seeing the Corbyn anti-semitism campaign, I now think Boris is toast.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Can’t imagine the MPs will nominate him, and can’t imagine the members will vote for him. His tenure as FS has been a good demonstration of the Peter Principle.
He had his opportunity and he has proved he is unreliable and unsuited to be leader
Agree completely, Mrs May played a blinder in giving him a serious job.
There’s no way the PM is going to fire him over this particular issue, unless he continues to f. up, but he’s made it clear to her that he’s disposable at the next reshuffle.
If she tries that she may well be firing her replacement, which is why she won't move him, he is the only box office Tory
I disagree, think most members are now seeing him for his weaknesses rather than his strengths.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Can’t imagine the MPs will nominate him, and can’t imagine the members will vote for him. His tenure as FS has been a good demonstration of the Peter Principle.
He had his opportunity and he has proved he is unreliable and unsuited to be leader
Agree completely, Mrs May played a blinder in giving him a serious job.
There’s no way the PM is going to fire him over this particular issue, unless he continues to f. up, but he’s made it clear to her that he’s disposable at the next reshuffle.
If she tries that she may well be firing her replacement, which is why she won't move him, he is the only box office Tory
We are both conservatives but on this we will have to agree to disagree. There are many other candidates who will come forward in time but I would not be surprised to see Boris follow GO into editing the telegraph or similar
'The Tories are not going to win by bombing their own base of pensioners and middle aged voters hoping to inherit and wealthy home owners.
At most they will introduce a hypothecated National Insurance rise for the NHS and social care, that will be it
@Huyud.....A NI rise would be the worst of all worlds...an income tax hitting the squeezed middle most..
Many of Corbyn's supporters are reasonably affluent liberals who are willing to pay more for a fairer society. The Tories need to press those buttons amongst their wealthier base...if wealthy liberals are willing to listen to it, why can't wealthy Tories?'
A NI rise is the only one with support in the polls and is entirely fair and in accordance with what NI was set up to fund which included healthcare and welfare.
Of course plenty of so called 'reasonably affluent liberals' in Hampstead started squeaking as soon as Ed Miliband proposed a Mansion Tax, wealthy Tories will sit out the next general election as many did last time if tgey are going to be taxed to the hilt in a Tory manifesto
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Boris is the real loser from the Corbyn anti-semitism row. Boris's history of racist (and other) comments will stop him getting the leadership -- and it will be his Conservative rivals for the top job who will ensure wall-to-wall coverage following the Guido/Corbyn template.
In fact, it might even mean the PM can sack him without knocking down the whole house of cards, but Boris is already favourite for first out of the cabinet.
And that is without novichok-twittergate!
Nope as the only people who think Boris is racist are leftwingers and diehard Remainers who will not be voting Tory anyway
You miss the point that it will be the other leadership candidates pointing this out, and showing their portfolios of Boris's "unfortunate remarks" to any waverers in the tea-rooms; not Corbyn; not Momentum. Like you, I used to believe Boris's USP as a winner would see him home but after seeing the Corbyn anti-semitism campaign, I now think Boris is toast.
i wouldn't say he's toast. he still has a capacity to act as a winner and his energy and optimism could well prove critical in an election. However, I'd agree that he's providing plenty of evidence for those who'd argue that he's already overpromoted. The question is whether that evidence will matter at the time, or whether other qualities will - temporarily, perhaps - become more valued.
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Boris is the real loser from the Corbyn anti-semitism row. Boris's history of racist (and other) comments will stop him getting the leadership -- and it will be his Conservative rivals for the top job who will ensure wall-to-wall coverage following the Guido/Corbyn template.
In fact, it might even mean the PM can sack him without knocking down the whole house of cards, but Boris is already favourite for first out of the cabinet.
And that is without novichok-twittergate!
Nope as the only people who think Boris is racist are leftwingers and diehard Remainers who will not be voting Tory anyway
You miss the point that it will be the other leadership candidates pointing this out, and showing their portfolios of Boris's "unfortunate remarks" to any waverers in the tea-rooms; not Corbyn; not Momentum. Like you, I used to believe Boris's USP as a winner would see him home but after seeing the Corbyn anti-semitism campaign, I now think Boris is toast.
Nope. Boris polls best amongst Tory contenders v Corbyn in almost every poll, after June 2017 that and that alone is all Tory MPs and members will care about unless someone comes along who polls as well as he does
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
'The Tories are not going to win by bombing their own base of pensioners and middle aged voters hoping to inherit and wealthy home owners.
At most they will introduce a hypothecated National Insurance rise for the NHS and social care, that will be it
@Huyud.....A NI rise would be the worst of all worlds...an income tax hitting the squeezed middle most..
Many of Corbyn's supporters are reasonably affluent liberals who are willing to pay more for a fairer society. The Tories need to press those buttons amongst their wealthier base...if wealthy liberals are willing to listen to it, why can't wealthy Tories?'
A NI rise is the only one with support in the polls and is entirely fair and in accordance with what NI was set up to fund which included healthcare and welfare.
Of course plenty of so called 'reasonably affluent liberals' in Hampstead started squeaking as soon as Ed Miliband proposed a Mansion Tax, wealthy Tories will sit out the next general election as many did last time if tgey are going to be taxed to the hilt in a Tory manifesto I’ll be for an NI rise so long as rich pensioners are also subjected to it - those aged 65 or 70 now, who retired 10 or 15 years ago on an index-linked proportion of their final salary that anyone currently working in the private sector can’t even hope to ever achieve.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
There was little evidence any alternative to Corbyn polled much better and in June 2017 he proved his election campaigning abilities as Boris already has.
Picking a so called 'competent, experienced' leader who was dull has in recent years given us Hillary, Theresa May, John Kerry, Gordon Brown, Mitt Romney etc
What the voters want at the moment is charisma and even a bit of populism
But apparently I don’t understand how the world works.
Journalists don't seem to (want to!) understand how science works, and vice versa. Molecules don't have "MADE IN RUSSIA" stamped on their covalent bonds, and the Porton Down guy hasn't been given any training on how to communicate a slightly complicated message.
Yesterday on Twitter was profoundly depressing. As ever
Nah. It was Boris and the FCO saying Porton Down had confirmed it was Russia now they are deleting all evidence of them saying that.
This is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Blair and Campbell.
Blair and Campbell would have sent out a D-Notice.
Certain sections of the media are being useful idiots to the Kremlin agenda here.
That was my criticism of @TSE. In his desperation to criticise this government he is reduced to parroting Putin’s minions
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
But apparently I don’t understand how the world works.
Journalists don't seem to (want to!) understand how science works, and vice versa. Molecules don't have "MADE IN RUSSIA" stamped on their covalent bonds, and the Porton Down guy hasn't been given any training on how to communicate a slightly complicated message.
Yesterday on Twitter was profoundly depressing. As ever
Nah. It was Boris and the FCO saying Porton Down had confirmed it was Russia now they are deleting all evidence of them saying that.
This is the sort of behaviour you’d expect from Blair and Campbell.
Blair and Campbell would have sent out a D-Notice.
Certain sections of the media are being useful idiots to the Kremlin agenda here.
That was my criticism of @TSE. In his desperation to criticise this government he is reduced to parroting Putin’s minions
I'm not criticising the government, I'm criticising Boris.
Expert on Sky says that it is possible that the CEO confided in Boris that the origin was Russia hence the tweet but he could not state it officially. He went on to say that other governments know the UK is correct through various intelligent agency clubs and multi lateral intelligence cooperation. He went on to say on the balance of probabiliies Russia is responsible
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
There was little evidence any alternative to Corbyn polled much better and in June 2017 he proved his election campaigning abilities as Boris already has.
Picking a so called 'competent, experienced' leader who was dull has in recent years given us Hillary, Theresa May, John Kerry, Gordon Brown, Mitt Romney etc
What the voters want at the moment is charisma and even a bit of populism
'The Tories are not going to win by bombing their own base of pensioners and middle aged voters hoping to inherit and wealthy home owners.
At most they will introduce a hypothecated National Insurance rise for the NHS and social care, that will be it
@Huyud.....A NI rise would be the worst of all worlds...an income tax hitting the squeezed middle most..
Many of Corbyn's supporters are reasonably affluent liberals who are willing to pay more for a fairer society. The Tories need to press those buttons amongst their wealthier base...if wealthy liberals are willing to listen to it, why can't wealthy Tories?'
A NI rise is the only one with support in the polls and is entirely fair and in accordance with what NI was set up to fund which included healthcare and welfare.
Of course plenty of so called 'reasonably affluent liberals' in Hampstead started squeaking as soon as Ed Miliband proposed a Mansion Tax, wealthy Tories will sit out the next general election as many did last time if tgey are going to be taxed to the hilt in a Tory manifesto
I’ll be for an NI rise so long as rich pensioners are also subjected to it - those aged 65 or 70 now, who retired 10 or 15 years ago on an index-linked proportion of their final salary that anyone currently working in the private sector can’t even hope to ever achieve.
What horse manure. If you have paid in large sums for 50 years there is no way they should take even more off what little pensioners have managed to save. lazy young people need to get off their butts and work a bit harder and look after themselves instead of trying to sponge of people who have worked all their lives. Greedy gits with opinions like yours should be shown what hard work means.
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
There was little evidence any alternative to Corbyn polled much better and in June 2017 he proved his election campaigning abilities as Boris already has.
Picking a so called 'competent, experienced' leader who was dull has in recent years given us Hillary, Theresa May, John Kerry, Gordon Brown, Mitt Romney etc
What the voters want at the moment is charisma and even a bit of populism
Little evidence apart from Theresa May's Tories polling about 20 points more than Corbyn's Labour for the best part of a year. Sure, that all came unstuck when he proved a good campaigner and she didn't, but that wasn't why Labour MPs voted for an early election.
I'm not suggesting that voters want dull - as a rule, they do want charisma - but when you have to demonstrate competence in office *before* going to the country, it is different from an outside insurgent.
Besides, there are plenty of examples of dull leaders being returned, not least May herself (let's not forget that the Tories won nearly as many votes in 2017 as Blair's Labour did in 1997).
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
We’re already at that point, thus the rise of JRM.
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
Studying the June 2016 polling is worthwhile. The membership hasn't changed much since then.
What do you think the odds are of Boris not standing in the next Tory leadership contest ?
Having consulted colleagues and in view of the circumstances in parliament, I have concluded that price cannot be bigger than 4/6.
Cheers, my view is if the Tory leadership contest is in the 2020s then Boris won't stand.
If it's before then, then the leader - assuming the Tories are still in government - will need to seal the proper EU exit deal, which means doing detail. Boris is not really a details person.
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
I was previously sure it was the Russians. But I don't want to be on the same side as Vince Cable.
Or Jeremy Corbyn.
Just saw your comment re: company formation agencies on last night's thread. Lol. Might have to revisit my policy on drinking coffee near PB....
You can see how - to the paranoid mind - a person being on a company board for a matter of days, and for thousands of companies might be suspicious.
But what is amazing is the cognitive dissonance. Upon finding out about company formation agents, the response of the nuts is not "oh yes, that makes sense," but "what a clever way to hide their nefarious (but somehow undefined and unknown) goals."
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
There was little evidence any alternative to Corbyn polled much better and in June 2017 he proved his election campaigning abilities as Boris already has.
Picking a so called 'competent, experienced' leader who was dull has in recent years given us Hillary, Theresa May, John Kerry, Gordon Brown, Mitt Romney etc
What the voters want at the moment is charisma and even a bit of populism
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
The Tories need a Macron figure with new ideas,especially for our younger voters.
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
Boris is the real loser from the Corbyn anti-semitism row. Boris's history of racist (and other) comments will stop him getting the leadership -- and it will be his Conservative rivals for the top job who will ensure wall-to-wall coverage following the Guido/Corbyn template.
In fact, it might even mean the PM can sack him without knocking down the whole house of cards, but Boris is already favourite for first out of the cabinet.
And that is without novichok-twittergate!
Nope as the only people who think Boris is racist are leftwingers and diehard Remainers who will not be voting Tory anyway
You miss the point that it will be the other leadership candidates pointing this out, and showing their portfolios of Boris's "unfortunate remarks" to any waverers in the tea-rooms; not Corbyn; not Momentum. Like you, I used to believe Boris's USP as a winner would see him home but after seeing the Corbyn anti-semitism campaign, I now think Boris is toast.
Nope. Boris polls best amongst Tory contenders v Corbyn in almost every poll, after June 2017 that and that alone is all Tory MPs and members will care about unless someone comes along who polls as well as he does
I'm not disagreeing that Boris is a winner: I have long championed his cause on here against those who think dull competence will suffice. But I think now that the Corbyn anti-semitism campaign has shown all other Conservatives how to beat Boris. It may even have shown the PM how to get rid of him without a challenge.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
The Tories need a Macron figure with new ideas,especially for our younger voters.
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
Williamson is too immature, Mercer is the appointment that should have been made
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
The Tories need a Macron figure with new ideas,especially for our younger voters.
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
Penny Morduant is also very good, as are both Kwasi Kwarteng and Rory Stewart.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
The Tories need a Macron figure with new ideas,especially for our younger voters.
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
Penny Morduant is also very good, as are both Kwasi Kwarteng and Rory Stewart.
I would have a new tax for Health and Social care that is in effect a hypothicated part of Income tax with same banding but I would reduce both income tax and NI. That would be fairer as well off pensioners do need to pay.
'The Tories are not going to win by bombing their own base of pensioners and middle aged voters hoping to inherit and wealthy home owners.
At most they will introduce a hypothecated National Insurance rise for the NHS and social care, that will be it
@Huyud.....A NI rise would be the worst of all worlds...an income tax hitting the squeezed middle most..
Many of Corbyn's supporters are reasonably affluent liberals who are willing to pay more for a fairer society. The Tories need to press those buttons amongst their wealthier base...if wealthy liberals are willing to listen to it, why can't wealthy Tories?'
A NI rise is the only one with support in the polls and is entirely fair and in accordance with what NI was set up to fund which included healthcare and welfare.
Of course plenty of so called 'reasonably affluent liberals' in Hampstead started squeaking as soon as Ed Miliband proposed a Mansion Tax, wealthy Tories will sit out the next general election as many did last time if tgey are going to be taxed to the hilt in a Tory manifesto
I’ll be for an NI rise so long as rich pensioners are also subjected to it - those aged 65 or 70 now, who retired 10 or 15 years ago on an index-linked proportion of their final salary that anyone currently working in the private sector can’t even hope to ever achieve.
What horse manure. If you have paid in large sums for 50 years there is no way they should take even more off what little pensioners have managed to save. lazy young people need to get off their butts and work a bit harder and look after themselves instead of trying to sponge of people who have worked all their lives. Greedy gits with opinions like yours should be shown what hard work means.
No. It's absurd that someone who works and has an income of £30k should pay more tax than someone that doesn't work and has the same income.
In an ideal world, I'd have individual rates of national insurance linked to people's lifestyle and designed to fund the NHS. But as that's not politically viable, income tax should be incrementally increased and NI reduced in line.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
The Tories need a Macron figure with new ideas,especially for our younger voters.
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
Penny Morduant is also very good, as are both Kwasi Kwarteng and Rory Stewart.
Instead, she promoted Gavin Williamson.
Yep,she seems like she doesn't want any threats in cabinet to her leadership .
Boris did fine as Mayor of London, where media coverage is very superficial and being a showman helps. He is a liability as a government minister, and a big liability as foreign secretary. He would be diastrous as PM.
Raab, Mercer, Tugendhat would all work well for them.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
The Tories need a Macron figure with new ideas,especially for our younger voters.
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
Williamson is too immature, Mercer is the appointment that should have been made
It's not immaturity.....Boris is immature, but gets away with it....
Williamson lacks gravitas...there again so did Hague, and that didn't seem to stop him becoming leader during his formative years
Boris did fine as Mayor of London, where media coverage is very superficial and being a showman helps. He is a liability as a government minister, and a big liability as foreign secretary. He would be diastrous as PM.
Raab, Mercer, Tugendhat would all work well for them.
Comments
Which leaves by elimination.. Gove.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5576931/Corbyn-meet-Board-Deputies-Jewish-Leadership-Council.html
I suspect they’ll eventually fall behind Gove or Raab.
I can see that we are in for another round of NHS bulemia, of starving then bingeing.
https://twitter.com/beanoofficial/status/981441242000105472?s=21
Another strand to his ideology is, of course, his 'peace' activities. I would dearly like to see the full confessional, the what he did when, who said what, what he was thinking, what he was specifically trying to achieve at each step - a full hour, dedicated solely to that aspect, with Piers Morgan would be ideal.
Instead, we get dissembly, actions that speak louder than words, and it is always, always consistent with communist orthodoxy. As people note, he CAN campaign, so why did the anti-semitism and Brexit campaigns go off half cock and the GE fly? Because, imho, they were quoshed under the leftism that trumps everything.
Why on earth would I hold a nuanced view of Corbyn, when nothing aside his personal manner hints at the remotest bit of nuance on his part.
Police arrest someone for showing them up, doing the job they can't do
#Boris4PM
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/some-on-the-right-may-admire-putin-but-tory-members-are-not-among-them-our-survey-suggests.html
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
Housebuilding and minimum wage ain't going to cut it to pay the bills.
I could quite easily see the Tories going into the next election with some mansion/wealth tax...something easy to sell...
Ultimately Hufud, any government of whichever political complexion needs to get much more into assets. If the economy stagnates further, and wealth becomes more unequal, people will vote with their feet. The Tories are not stupid...do they want power or not?
So property, private based share portfolios, pensions...it's not rocket science to know where the wealth is. And it has to go after wealth that people cannot just seamlessly take out the country...properties, portfolios and pensions- the 3 P's. Corporation tax is just to easy to avoid.
But the three P's are difficult to avoid if the assets are based in the UK...and it needs to be more than just capital gains.
A 1% tax on all UK based funds...including pensions. Transactions taxes too if people try and sell them. How much would that bring? And if it works, you quietly increase it.
He simply failed the audition.
His tenure as FS has been a good demonstration of the Peter Principle.
In fact, it might even mean the PM can sack him without knocking down the whole house of cards, but Boris is already favourite for first out of the cabinet.
And that is without novichok-twittergate!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jean_Charles_de_Menezes#DPP_and_CPS_involvement
True, perception versus reality can save politicians.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sp4prmurxb/TimesResults_160629_ConMembers.pdf
At most they will introduce a hypothecated National Insurance rise for the NHS and social care, that will be it
(the analogy currently would be a 4,000 a day diet to a 3,920 calorie a day diet)
He also had a +28% positive rating, interestingly Hunt had a -1% net negative rating
I mean, has there ever been someone killed, with clear evidence of the killing, that the CPS decided not to prosecute?
I can’t think of one, hence my idea that you’d charge the guy with manslaughter then send a CPS lawyer to the magistrate to say that the Crown intends to offer no evidence in the case. He’d be acquitted immediately, and be subject to the double jeopardy law if they ever wanted to reopen the case.
What do you think the odds are of Boris not standing in the next Tory leadership contest ?
This article still makes me chuckle:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/01/nicky-morgan-conservative-party-leadership-david-cameron
There’s no way the PM is going to fire him over this particular issue, unless he continues to f. up, but he’s made it clear to her that he’s disposable at the next reshuffle.
The Tories are not going to win by bombing their own base of pensioners and middle aged voters hoping to inherit and wealthy home owners.
At most they will introduce a hypothecated National Insurance rise for the NHS and social care, that will be it
@Huyud.....A NI rise would be the worst of all worlds...an income tax hitting the squeezed middle most..
Many of Corbyn's supporters are reasonably affluent liberals who are willing to pay more for a fairer society. The Tories need to press those buttons amongst their wealthier base...if wealthy liberals are willing to listen to it, why can't wealthy Tories?
Many of Corbyn's supporters are reasonably affluent liberals who are willing to pay more for a fairer society. The Tories need to press those buttons amongst their wealthier base...if wealthy liberals are willing to listen to it, why can't wealthy Tories?'
A NI rise is the only one with support in the polls and is entirely fair and in accordance with what NI was set up to fund which included healthcare and welfare.
Of course plenty of so called 'reasonably affluent liberals' in Hampstead started squeaking as soon as Ed Miliband proposed a Mansion Tax, wealthy Tories will sit out the next general election as many did last time if tgey are going to be taxed to the hilt in a Tory manifesto
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/apr/04/labour-criticises-boris-johnson-over-his-porton-downnovichok-claims-as-opcw-meets-politics-live?page=with:block-5ac4d97be4b099ccac8cd2e4#block-5ac4d97be4b099ccac8cd2e4
There should be some special award for his repeated ability to keep digging....
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
Of course plenty of so called 'reasonably affluent liberals' in Hampstead started squeaking as soon as Ed Miliband proposed a Mansion Tax, wealthy Tories will sit out the next general election as many did last time if tgey are going to be taxed to the hilt in a Tory manifesto
I’ll be for an NI rise so long as rich pensioners are also subjected to it - those aged 65 or 70 now, who retired 10 or 15 years ago on an index-linked proportion of their final salary that anyone currently working in the private sector can’t even hope to ever achieve.
Picking a so called 'competent, experienced' leader who was dull has in recent years given us Hillary, Theresa May, John Kerry, Gordon Brown, Mitt Romney etc
What the voters want at the moment is charisma and even a bit of populism
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/748471159621095424
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2011/09/toby-young-toadmeister-has-bet-15000-that-boris-johnson-will-be-tory-leader-by-2018.html
Boris won in 'Labour' London twice.
The Left want rid of him as he represents a danger to them.
Except for unexpected circs, I expect he will run again for leader next time around.
What horse manure. If you have paid in large sums for 50 years there is no way they should take even more off what little pensioners have managed to save. lazy young people need to get off their butts and work a bit harder and look after themselves instead of trying to sponge of people who have worked all their lives. Greedy gits with opinions like yours should be shown what hard work means.
Or Jeremy Corbyn.
I've always found blaming the French is usually the right thing.
Houston Astros to repeat @ 13/2 (Unibet).
6/1 elsewhere more than fine.
And a treble on the Astros, Nats and Dodgers to win their divisions pays a bit over 11/4 at Ladbrokes/Coral.
I'm not suggesting that voters want dull - as a rule, they do want charisma - but when you have to demonstrate competence in office *before* going to the country, it is different from an outside insurgent.
Besides, there are plenty of examples of dull leaders being returned, not least May herself (let's not forget that the Tories won nearly as many votes in 2017 as Blair's Labour did in 1997).
Just saw your comment re: company formation agencies on last night's thread. Lol. Might have to revisit my policy on drinking coffee near PB....
But what is amazing is the cognitive dissonance. Upon finding out about company formation agents, the response of the nuts is not "oh yes, that makes sense," but "what a clever way to hide their nefarious (but somehow undefined and unknown) goals."
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
Instead, she promoted Gavin Williamson.
No. It's absurd that someone who works and has an income of £30k should pay more tax than someone that doesn't work and has the same income.
In an ideal world, I'd have individual rates of national insurance linked to people's lifestyle and designed to fund the NHS. But as that's not politically viable, income tax should be incrementally increased and NI reduced in line.
Raab, Mercer, Tugendhat would all work well for them.
Williamson lacks gravitas...there again so did Hague, and that didn't seem to stop him becoming leader during his formative years