At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
The Tories need a Macron figure with new ideas,especially for our younger voters.
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
Williamson is too immature, Mercer is the appointment that should have been made
It's not immaturity.....Boris is immature, but gets away with it....
Williamson lacks gravitas...there again so did Hague, and that didn't seem to stop him becoming leader during his formative years
Boris is seen as a joke by the public , only Tory fanboys think he is great.
It's very funny reading the comments page today ruminating the next Tory leader...
It's frightening to see just how out of touch the Tory party is with modern Britain. The party needs to connect with people aged under 40 and I cannot see any pathway for it doing that. ABC...anyone but Corbyn is not going to cut it at the next election....
Yep,she seems like she doesn't want any threats in cabinet to her leadership .
Just like Gordon Brown.
The tories would be mad to let her go into another GE,couldn't believe the tory manifesto the morning it came out , more taking than giving I got the impression that morning.
It's very funny reading the comments page today ruminating the next Tory leader...
It's frightening to see just how out of touch the Tory party is with modern Britain. The party needs to connect with people aged under 40 and I cannot see any pathway for it doing that. ABC...anyone but Corbyn is not going to cut it at the next election....
Yeah. So out of touch we got more votes than your party at the last election.
It's very funny reading the comments page today ruminating the next Tory leader...
It's frightening to see just how out of touch the Tory party is with modern Britain. The party needs to connect with people aged under 40 and I cannot see any pathway for it doing that. ABC...anyone but Corbyn is not going to cut it at the next election....
Yeah. So out of touch we got more votes than your party at the last election.
I would not be boasting given you are only in power by cheating and bribing DUP.
Expert on Sky says that it is possible that the CEO confided in Boris that the origin was Russia hence the tweet but he could not state it officially. He went on to say that other governments know the UK is correct through various intelligent agency clubs and multi lateral intelligence cooperation. He went on to say on the balance of probabiliies Russia is responsible
It is more than "the balance of probabilities".
The probability that it was the Russian State is opportunity x motive x track-record.
On the day after, my estimate was 99.9% probability that it was the Russian State i.e. way beyond reasonable doubt.
Since then more information has emerged about opportunity and motive.
Opportunity: The nerve agent may have come from Syria or been stolen and didn't need an expert to apply. So others could possibly have had the capability to do it.
Motive: Other motives such as his alleged knowledge of a chemical weapon operation in Syria and peculiar background with money involving Yulia's relations. So others could have had a motive to do it.
So my current estimate is that there is a 90% probability that the Russian State is responsible. It is not a balance of probabilities but it might not be quite beyond reasonable doubt. I'd still bet on it at say 8/1 on it being Russia. (I'm not taking bets).
Expert on Sky says that it is possible that the CEO confided in Boris that the origin was Russia hence the tweet but he could not state it officially. He went on to say that other governments know the UK is correct through various intelligent agency clubs and multi lateral intelligence cooperation. He went on to say on the balance of probabiliies Russia is responsible
It is more than "the balance of probabilities".
The probability that it was the Russian State is opportunity x motive x track-record.
On the day after, my estimate was 99.9% probability that it was the Russian State i.e. way beyond reasonable doubt.
Since then more information has emerged about opportunity and motive.
Opportunity: The nerve agent may have come from Syria or been stolen and didn't need an expert to apply. So others could possibly have had the capability to do it.
Motive: Other motives such as his alleged knowledge of a chemical weapon operation in Syria and peculiar background with money involving Yulia's relations. So others could have had a motive to do it.
So my current estimate is that there is a 90% probability that the Russian State is responsible. It is not a balance of probabilities but it might not be quite beyond reasonable doubt. I'd still bet on it at say 8/1 on it being Russia. (I'm not taking bets).
Sorry, but that's bat-shit crazy. How on earth does your bonkers theory explain the Russian government's behaviour immediately after the attack, and indeed subsequently? Do you seriously think they'd regard it as a joke if rogue Syrian elements had access to Novichok, let alone were using it on Russian citizens and incidentally triggering worldwide diplomatic and probably economic measures against Russia?
Expert on Sky says that it is possible that the CEO confided in Boris that the origin was Russia hence the tweet but he could not state it officially. He went on to say that other governments know the UK is correct through various intelligent agency clubs and multi lateral intelligence cooperation. He went on to say on the balance of probabiliies Russia is responsible
It is more than "the balance of probabilities".
The probability that it was the Russian State is opportunity x motive x track-record.
On the day after, my estimate was 99.9% probability that it was the Russian State i.e. way beyond reasonable doubt.
Since then more information has emerged about opportunity and motive.
Opportunity: The nerve agent may have come from Syria or been stolen and didn't need an expert to apply. So others could possibly have had the capability to do it.
Motive: Other motives such as his alleged knowledge of a chemical weapon operation in Syria and peculiar background with money involving Yulia's relations. So others could have had a motive to do it.
So my current estimate is that there is a 90% probability that the Russian State is responsible. It is not a balance of probabilities but it might not be quite beyond reasonable doubt. I'd still bet on it at say 8/1 on it being Russia. (I'm not taking bets).
It would be nice to see what the poisoned daughter thinks,the government could be in trouble if she backs her homeland ,the mother country of not guilty.
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
I was previously sure it was the Russians. But I don't want to be on the same side as Vince Cable.
Or Jeremy Corbyn.
Just saw your comment re: company formation agencies on last night's thread. Lol. Might have to revisit my policy on drinking coffee near PB....
You can see how - to the paranoid mind - a person being on a company board for a matter of days, and for thousands of companies might be suspicious.
But what is amazing is the cognitive dissonance. Upon finding out about company formation agents, the response of the nuts is not "oh yes, that makes sense," but "what a clever way to hide their nefarious (but somehow undefined and unknown) goals."
You didn't explain this to @hunchman again did you? Its brilliant entertainment.
At what point does Boris Johnson become an unthinkable replacement for Theresa May even for erstwhile fans? And who do those erstwhile fans then fall in behind?
At no point as Boris is still comfortably the most popular Tory with the public in the polls, until that changes he remains in pole position to succeed her
I don't think that necessarily follows. There's a difference between 'being popular' and 'being the favoured successor'. Now, he may get the gig anyway - there is a linkage, after all - but it's far from guaranteed.
Besides, the MPs would have to put him into the last two, before it even gets to members.
MPs will want to keep their seats, at the end of the day Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. They will want a proven election winner above all and Boris is clearly that with 2 London Mayoral election wins and a referendum win under his belt
Labour turkeys were quite happy to apparently vote for Christmas in April 2017.
However, as others have said, whether Boris is still a winner - and whether he would be a winner with the prize being as big and powerful as the prime ministership - are open questions.
Unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader - assuming the leadership election takes place before 2022 - will have to demonstrate their ability in office before the country gets to vote on them; you can't just get by with jolly waffle.
The Tories need to test people like johnny Mercer in office but instead Theresa goes for a no threat politician at defence .
If you mean Johnny Mercer in the cabinet I would agree
The Tories need a Macron figure with new ideas,especially for our younger voters.
A former captain in the British army who could be good in debates and campaigning ( needs testing on that )
The guy should be the defence Secretary, just imagine a former captain in the British army saying that Russia are a threat to the Mr bean figure of williamson.
Penny Morduant is also very good, as are both Kwasi Kwarteng and Rory Stewart.
Instead, she promoted Gavin Williamson.
Rory is an obvious replacement for Boris when the time comes. Kwarteng looks an excellent replacement for May imo but he does need senior ministerial experience.
The protection that pensioners, millions of whom are now in employment, have against NI is completely unjustifiable and simply immoral. The sensible way to deal with it is to integrate NI into IT so it is also paid by those living off investment income. Why someone with a reasonable share portfolio should pay less tax than someone who works for the same money at any age is equally inexplicable to me.
The protection that pensioners, millions of whom are now in employment, have against NI is completely unjustifiable and simply immoral. The sensible way to deal with it is to integrate NI into IT so it is also paid by those living off investment income. Why someone with a reasonable share portfolio should pay less tax than someone who works for the same money at any age is equally inexplicable to me.
No as NI should be exactly that, an insurance and not a tax focused on key areas like pensions, health and social care.
Though make over 65s in employment pay NI by all means
It's all right. Vince has stepped in to help Boris and the government out.
It hasn’t changed my view. I was a cabinet minister for five years, I worked very closely with the intelligence agencies.
I trust them. I think they’re highly professional and objective, and what they tell us and what the prime minister has said is that the overwhelming circumstantial evidence is that the Russians were involved, and I believe that.
I’ve many other differences with the government, but I do support their position on this issue.
I was previously sure it was the Russians. But I don't want to be on the same side as Vince Cable.
Or Jeremy Corbyn.
Just saw your comment re: company formation agencies on last night's thread. Lol. Might have to revisit my policy on drinking coffee near PB....
You can see how - to the paranoid mind - a person being on a company board for a matter of days, and for thousands of companies might be suspicious.
But what is amazing is the cognitive dissonance. Upon finding out about company formation agents, the response of the nuts is not "oh yes, that makes sense," but "what a clever way to hide their nefarious (but somehow undefined and unknown) goals."
Indeed. I'm quite concerned by levels of cognitive dissonance that the internet seems to have shone a light on. Maybe Snopes should launch a browser and so become the default homepage for future generations....
In an ideal world, I'd have individual rates of national insurance linked to people's lifestyle and designed to fund the NHS. But as that's not politically viable, income tax should be incrementally increased and NI reduced in line.
You are proposing that people who lead healthy life styles pay more then I take it as studies have shown total life health care costs for health conscious people exceed that of those that drink a lot/smoke/ are obese. Even before you factor in pension costs of the life time extension they gain
Comments
It's frightening to see just how out of touch the Tory party is with modern Britain. The party needs to connect with people aged under 40 and I cannot see any pathway for it doing that. ABC...anyone but Corbyn is not going to cut it at the next election....
The probability that it was the Russian State is opportunity x motive x track-record.
On the day after, my estimate was 99.9% probability that it was the Russian State i.e. way beyond reasonable doubt.
Since then more information has emerged about opportunity and motive.
Opportunity: The nerve agent may have come from Syria or been stolen and didn't need an expert to apply. So others could possibly have had the capability to do it.
Motive: Other motives such as his alleged knowledge of a chemical weapon operation in Syria and peculiar background with money involving Yulia's relations. So others could have had a motive to do it.
So my current estimate is that there is a 90% probability that the Russian State is responsible. It is not a balance of probabilities but it might not be quite beyond reasonable doubt. I'd still bet on it at say 8/1 on it being Russia. (I'm not taking bets).
NEW THREAD
Corbyn, Diane Abbott, George Galloway, Ken Livingstone - notice a pattern here?
Though make over 65s in employment pay NI by all means