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  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Foxy said:

    currystar said:

    Not so long ago, the Tory party knew that — no matter how bleak the national picture — there were parts of the capital that would always remain blue. Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth — these boroughs were the jewels in the Conservative crown. Even at the height of Tony Blair’s popularity, the party held on to them. Campaigning in their smarter postcodes was considered almost déclassé.

    But this year, the Tories are in the fight of a lifetime to keep hold of every one of the nine councils they control. For many ministers, the working assumption is that the city is about to be painted red. As one cabinet minister puts it: ‘There is only one word to describe the party in London: screwed.’

    For an idea of how bad things look, consider the Tory peer and psephologist Robert Hayward’s recent projection that the Conservatives will lose about 100 council seats of their 612, which would be a worse result than in 1994, just a few years before Tony Blair’s first landslide.

    That the Prime Minister recently chose to sit down with her nemesis George Osborne, in his role as editor of the Evening Standard, is a tell-tale sign of the depth of her concern.

    The sa May.

    If the Conservatives want to know where their problems start in London all they need to do is to look at how levels of home ownership have changed during the last 20 years.

    And after that have a look at how levels of student debt have changed in the last twenty years.

    Until they have policies which reverse those two trends instead of exacerbating them (as for example George Osborne did) then they will continue to decline in London irrespective of whatever gimmicks they come up with.
    I’m not sure what the Tories can do about London without becoming a totally different party.

    Home ownership and demographics are poor for them, and getting worse.
    The majority of London is now a foreign country
    In London we are living in the future.
    Obviously it looks foreign if you’re living in the past.
    I don't like the murder rate of the future.

    I'll stay in the distant past of Devon, if that's alright?
    The murder rate of the future is not so bad as the past:

    https://twitter.com/pgreenfielduk/status/980774867271331840?s=19
    Ah yes, the Glory Years of Boris. Not looking so good now though, is it, that graph if updated....
    1990 was an incredibly elevated level though. It climbed substantially through the 1960s, 70s and 80s.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theresa May’s allies are increasingly confident she can bring “back from the dead” a major review of parliamentary seats that would boost the Tories’ chances of winning the 2022 election.

    The upheaval would see Jeremy Corbyn’s seat axed and the overall number of MPs slashed from 650 to 600.

    It could also be the catalyst for Labour Left-wingers loyal to Mr Corbyn to carry out a purge of Blairites, because the boundary changes would trigger dozens of selection contests.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-could-revive-major-boundary-review-to-boost-majority-in-2022-election-a3806426.html

    Doesn’t take many abstentions from the Corbynites for her to have the numbers. The current boundaries will be 17 years out of date by 2022.
    Utterly nuts. Waste of political capital.
    No one wants this and no one cares.
    it's fundamentally undemocratic to have out of date boundaries.
    we could have a new review, 650 MPs, new boundaries
    No we can’t. The law (Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011) says that the number of MPs is to be 600. Changing that now requires primary legislation.
    doesn't this also require having a parliamentary majority for it?
    If the existing review continues, then a single vote in the Commons is required to accept or reject them.

    If they want the Electoral Commission to start again on the basis of 650 seats, then primary legislation will need to be introduced and pass three readings in both houses, subject to the usual debate and amendments along the way.

    Given we are now leaving the EU, I think 650is a more appropriate number, but the mechinaics by which this can come about is quite complicated. The government has no intention of introducing legislation that overturns something that’s expected to give them an electoral advantage next time around. At the last election, the fact of the old boundaries was probably the difference between a hung parliament and a majority for the Tories.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Even Layla Moran loses her seat nominally on the new boundaries, though with first time incumbency she has a decent shot at winning Oxford, Abingdon North.

    as am sure you appreciate, nominal doesn't make much sense when one village in Norfolk is heavily Tory and another next door split just because the constituency border is between them
    I haven't really looked at the minutiae to be honest, just went through Electoral calculus. The bottom line is its very bad for the Lib Dems !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theresa May’s allies are increasingly confident she can bring “back from the dead” a major review of parliamentary seats that would boost the Tories’ chances of winning the 2022 election.

    The upheaval would see Jeremy Corbyn’s seat axed and the overall number of MPs slashed from 650 to 600.

    It could also be the catalyst for Labour Left-wingers loyal to Mr Corbyn to carry out a purge of Blairites, because the boundary changes would trigger dozens of selection contests.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-could-revive-major-boundary-review-to-boost-majority-in-2022-election-a3806426.html

    Doesn’t take many abstentions from the Corbynites for her to have the numbers. The current boundaries will be 17 years out of date by 2022.
    Utterly nuts. Waste of political capital.
    No one wants this and no one cares.
    it's fundamentally undemocratic to have out of date boundaries.
    we could have a new review, 650 MPs, new boundaries
    No we can’t. The law (Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011) says that the number of MPs is to be 600. Changing that now requires primary legislation.
    doesn't this also require having a parliamentary majority for it?
    If the existing review continues, then a single vote in the Commons is required to accept or reject them.

    If they want the Electoral Commission to start again on the basis of 650 seats, then primary legislation will need to be introduced and pass three readings in both houses, subject to the usual debate and amendments along the way.

    Given we are now leaving the EU, I think 650is a more appropriate number, but the mechinaics by which this can come about is quite complicated. The government has no intention of introducing legislation that overturns something that’s expected to give them an electoral advantage next time around. At the last election, the fact of the old boundaries was probably the difference between a hung parliament and a majority for the Tories.
    It'd have been 302 seats for the Tories, so indeed a majority.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited April 2018
    This London Tory panic is illogical. As other posters have said, centre-right parties will always be a minority taste in hyperdiverse cities with low rates of home ownership. We can only become popular in those areas by ditching our policies that distinguish us from the other parties, and are perfectly popular in other parts of the country.

    George Osborne’s preference for vanilla social liberalism and economic neoliberalism on steroids are very much a minority taste, even in the capital. If he is our candidate for the mayoralty in 2020, he will do worse than Zac Goldsmith.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    To add to my earlier post, Brexit will not be a drag on the Tories in London forever, apart from for those who have been driven mad by it. Mentioning no names.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    The changes may well go through now, the old hurdle was the DUP but amazingly some "new" boundaries were found that kept all the DUP MPs in January ;)

    New parliamentary boundaries were revised in January 2018 by the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. Analysis of these revised proposals by Electoral Calculus, assuming that voting patterns remain stable, indicates the Democratic Unionist Party has improved its position from the initial proposals

    Who could have predicted that !

    Gerrymandering and a stitch up.

    Pure and simple.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    FF43 said:

    The trick with Brexit is to try to hang onto as much as possible of the status quo while pretending you are taking control and doing "British deals" simply because you are "negotiating".

    I see the fisher folk's Stockholm syndrome towards the party that negotiated just about every fishing related deal, capitulation and concession with the EU continues apace.

    https://twitter.com/fishingforleave/status/981526109190803457

    'Top Torys' ffs.

    More proof that Leavers make appalling graphic designers.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HYUFD said:

    Under Theresa the Tories have very much become the party of caravan holidays and jumble sales. It's no surprise that London - a city of edginess, ambition and vim - should see them as dull and irrelevant or even a touch morbid. These days I can barely picture a Tory who wouldn't partake in tea dancing.

    Though West London is still largely Tory
    Absolute rubbish. The vast majority of West London is Labour. I think you are mistaking West London with South West London!

    This is easily verifiable by simply searching google.

    https://goo.gl/images/c3AqPf
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Under Theresa the Tories have very much become the party of caravan holidays and jumble sales. It's no surprise that London - a city of edginess, ambition and vim - should see them as dull and irrelevant or even a touch morbid. These days I can barely picture a Tory who wouldn't partake in tea dancing.

    Though West London is still largely Tory, that may not be true if Labour had a more centrist leader but Corbyn is too much of a risk for the very wealthy even if they hate Brexit
    There is a sort of Tory river that runs down from Edgeware to Epsom via Westminster.
    Hmm - it has to route underground through a sizeable chunk of North West London!

    https://goo.gl/images/c3AqPf
  • Aussie sports stars really know how to make friends.

    Rugby Australia and the New South Wales Waratahs will seek explanation from Israel Folau after his comment on social media suggesting that gay people would be condemned to “hell” unless they “repent” for their sins.

    Folau’s Instagram post was deleted but a joint statement issued by RA and the NSW Rugby Union said it supported “all forms of inclusion”. The RA chief executive, Raelene Castle, and the Waratahs CEO, Andrew Hore, will meet the 29-year-old to discuss his use of social media.


    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/apr/05/israel-folau-explain-comments-gay-people-go-to-hell
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Under Theresa the Tories have very much become the party of caravan holidays and jumble sales. It's no surprise that London - a city of edginess, ambition and vim - should see them as dull and irrelevant or even a touch morbid. These days I can barely picture a Tory who wouldn't partake in tea dancing.

    What a silly comment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited April 2018
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Under Theresa the Tories have very much become the party of caravan holidays and jumble sales. It's no surprise that London - a city of edginess, ambition and vim - should see them as dull and irrelevant or even a touch morbid. These days I can barely picture a Tory who wouldn't partake in tea dancing.

    Though West London is still largely Tory
    Absolute rubbish. The vast majority of West London is Labour. I think you are mistaking West London with South West London!

    This is easily verifiable by simply searching google.

    https://goo.gl/images/c3AqPf
    The posher bits of West London, Westminster, the City, Chelsea, Putney, Fulham, Richmond Park, Hillingdon etc are still largely Tory.

    It is East London, North London up to the Essex border and with the exception of Barnet with its high Jewish population and South London up to the Kent border which are now overwhelmingly Labour
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    In the post-May era the tory MPs are going to have to work out how not to put Voldemogg as one of the candidates to the members. Or they are going to be completely and utterly fucked.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited April 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    In the post-May era the tory MPs are going to have to work out how not to put Voldemogg as one of the candidates to the members. Or they are going to be completely and utterly fucked.
    It will be very hard for them to stop both Mogg and Boris getting to the last 2 and going to the members, which means one of those two would likely win. Gove who came third last time with MPs could be Kingmaker and end up Chancellor for either of them
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    In the post-May era the tory MPs are going to have to work out how not to put Voldemogg as one of the candidates to the members. Or they are going to be completely and utterly fucked.
    It will be very hard for them to stop both Mogg and Boris getting to the last 2 and going to the members, which means one of those two would likely win. Gove who came third last time with MPs could be Kingmaker and end up Chancellor for either of them
    God help us all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Aussie sports stars really know how to make friends.

    Rugby Australia and the New South Wales Waratahs will seek explanation from Israel Folau after his comment on social media suggesting that gay people would be condemned to “hell” unless they “repent” for their sins.

    Folau’s Instagram post was deleted but a joint statement issued by RA and the NSW Rugby Union said it supported “all forms of inclusion”. The RA chief executive, Raelene Castle, and the Waratahs CEO, Andrew Hore, will meet the 29-year-old to discuss his use of social media.


    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/apr/05/israel-folau-explain-comments-gay-people-go-to-hell

    And there we were thinking it was an Aussie stereotype; "Rule One: Naaah Poofters."
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    Those five alternatives are a very good reason for Theresa May to stay in post at least until she loses the next election. Not one of them is an improvement, which is why she got the gig in the first place. At least she is sensible, tries to do a reasonable job and isn't obviously dishonest or weird.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The changes may well go through now, the old hurdle was the DUP but amazingly some "new" boundaries were found that kept all the DUP MPs in January ;)

    New parliamentary boundaries were revised in January 2018 by the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. Analysis of these revised proposals by Electoral Calculus, assuming that voting patterns remain stable, indicates the Democratic Unionist Party has improved its position from the initial proposals

    Who could have predicted that !

    Gerrymandering and a stitch up.

    Pure and simple.
    Your detailed evidence? Or some might think you not quite so pure. But hey, one out of two....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    In the post-May era the tory MPs are going to have to work out how not to put Voldemogg as one of the candidates to the members. Or they are going to be completely and utterly fucked.
    It will be very hard for them to stop both Mogg and Boris getting to the last 2 and going to the members, which means one of those two would likely win. Gove who came third last time with MPs could be Kingmaker and end up Chancellor for either of them
    God help us all.
    If even Leadsom and IDS could get to the final 2 with MPs then so can Mogg or Boris
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    Those five alternatives are a very good reason for Theresa May to stay in post at least until she loses the next election. Not one of them is an improvement, which is why she got the gig in the first place. At least she is sensible, tries to do a reasonable job and isn't obviously dishonest or weird.
    May is increasingly the thin blue line, holding us from facing the GE choice of Mogg or Corbyn for PM.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    And what's the betting Putin didn't get permission to tap the call?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43652574
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The changes may well go through now, the old hurdle was the DUP but amazingly some "new" boundaries were found that kept all the DUP MPs in January ;)

    New parliamentary boundaries were revised in January 2018 by the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland. Analysis of these revised proposals by Electoral Calculus, assuming that voting patterns remain stable, indicates the Democratic Unionist Party has improved its position from the initial proposals

    Who could have predicted that !

    Gerrymandering and a stitch up.

    Pure and simple.
    Your detailed evidence? Or some might think you not quite so pure. But hey, one out of two....
    You cannot expect detailed evidence from half a brain cell.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Mark, maybe it wasn't the Russians who tapped the call. Maybe it was the French. Or Mossad.

    #CorbynVindicated

    [/sarcasm, for anyone new here]
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2018
    Some pundits are predicting the LDs could lose control of the London Borough of Sutton for the first time since 1986 despite the fact that they currently hold 83% of the seats on the council.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-could-lose-half-of-london-councils-in-spring-elections-reveals-tory-election-expert-a3729901.html

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/31/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Mr. Mark, maybe it wasn't the Russians who tapped the call. Maybe it was the French. Or Mossad.

    #CorbynVindicated

    [/sarcasm, for anyone new here]

    Doll-gate,

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/05/bbc-show-corbyn-russian-doll/
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    And what's the betting Putin didn't get permission to tap the call?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43652574

    Hmph, that transcript doesn't exactly scream authenticity

    Viktoria: Yes, I hear you.

    Alleged Yulia: It is Yulia Skripal.

    Viktoria: Oh, Yulka [diminutive of Yulia] it is you! I recognise from your voice that it is you but cannot understand. So, they gave you a telephone, didn't they?

    Alleged Yulia: Yes, yes.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Under Theresa the Tories have very much become the party of caravan holidays and jumble sales. It's no surprise that London - a city of edginess, ambition and vim - should see them as dull and irrelevant or even a touch morbid. These days I can barely picture a Tory who wouldn't partake in tea dancing.

    Though West London is still largely Tory, that may not be true if Labour had a more centrist leader but Corbyn is too much of a risk for the very wealthy even if they hate Brexit
    There is a sort of Tory river that runs down from Edgeware to Epsom via Westminster.
    Hmm - it has to route underground through a sizeable chunk of North West London!

    https://goo.gl/images/c3AqPf
    What about the Hogsmill River? Ewell to the Thames?
  • Russian Ambassador pleading for all the information and samples so they can act with the UK jointly is either naive or just plain stupid or shear panic
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited April 2018
    Danny565 said:

    And what's the betting Putin didn't get permission to tap the call?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43652574

    Hmph, that transcript doesn't exactly scream authenticity

    Viktoria: Yes, I hear you.

    Alleged Yulia: It is Yulia Skripal.

    Viktoria: Oh, Yulka [diminutive of Yulia] it is you! I recognise from your voice that it is you but cannot understand. So, they gave you a telephone, didn't they?

    Alleged Yulia: Yes, yes.
    And "Everything is ok. He [her father] is resting now, having a sleep. Everyone's health is fine, there are no irreparable things. I will be discharged soon. Everything is ok."

    Followed up no doubt with the Russian Ambassador getting wall-to-wall coverage on SKY and ITV stating baldly "See, they are OK! If this had been Russian Novichok, believe me, they would not have got better.... Porton Down make shoddy knock-off of proper Russki tools for the job...."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Danny565 said:

    And what's the betting Putin didn't get permission to tap the call?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43652574

    Hmph, that transcript doesn't exactly scream authenticity

    Viktoria: Yes, I hear you.

    Alleged Yulia: It is Yulia Skripal.

    Viktoria: Oh, Yulka [diminutive of Yulia] it is you! I recognise from your voice that it is you but cannot understand. So, they gave you a telephone, didn't they?

    Alleged Yulia: Yes, yes.
    And "Everything is ok. He [her father] is resting now, having a sleep. Everyone's health is fine, there are no irreparable things. I will be discharged soon. Everything is ok."

    Followed up no doubt with the Russian Ambassador getting wall-to-wall coverage on SKY and ITV stating baldly "See, they are OK! If this had been Russian Novichok, believe me, they would not have got better.... Porton Down make shoddy knock-off of proper Russki tools for the job...."
    I am sure Corbyn believes it is legit...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Russian Ambassador pleading for all the information and samples so they can act with the UK jointly is either naive or just plain stupid or shear panic

    I'd always assumed Russian spies were the best in the world and they would have identified the suspects already....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Mr. Mark, maybe it wasn't the Russians who tapped the call. Maybe it was the French. Or Mossad.

    #CorbynVindicated

    [/sarcasm, for anyone new here]

    Doll-gate,

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/05/bbc-show-corbyn-russian-doll/
    Was the doll inside Putin that of Corbyn?
  • Danny565 said:

    And what's the betting Putin didn't get permission to tap the call?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43652574

    Hmph, that transcript doesn't exactly scream authenticity

    Viktoria: Yes, I hear you.

    Alleged Yulia: It is Yulia Skripal.

    Viktoria: Oh, Yulka [diminutive of Yulia] it is you! I recognise from your voice that it is you but cannot understand. So, they gave you a telephone, didn't they?

    Alleged Yulia: Yes, yes.
    And "Everything is ok. He [her father] is resting now, having a sleep. Everyone's health is fine, there are no irreparable things. I will be discharged soon. Everything is ok."

    Followed up no doubt with the Russian Ambassador getting wall-to-wall coverage on SKY and ITV stating baldly "See, they are OK! If this had been Russian Novichok, believe me, they would not have got better.... Porton Down make shoddy knock-off of proper Russki tools for the job...."
    He does not seem to know about it (live just now)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), be fair. It's not hard identifying spies when they're yours.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited April 2018

    Danny565 said:

    And what's the betting Putin didn't get permission to tap the call?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43652574

    Hmph, that transcript doesn't exactly scream authenticity

    Viktoria: Yes, I hear you.

    Alleged Yulia: It is Yulia Skripal.

    Viktoria: Oh, Yulka [diminutive of Yulia] it is you! I recognise from your voice that it is you but cannot understand. So, they gave you a telephone, didn't they?

    Alleged Yulia: Yes, yes.
    And "Everything is ok. He [her father] is resting now, having a sleep. Everyone's health is fine, there are no irreparable things. I will be discharged soon. Everything is ok."

    Followed up no doubt with the Russian Ambassador getting wall-to-wall coverage on SKY and ITV stating baldly "See, they are OK! If this had been Russian Novichok, believe me, they would not have got better.... Porton Down make shoddy knock-off of proper Russki tools for the job...."
    I am sure Corbyn believes it is legit...
    If it is, Boris Johnson better get out in the media and shout "cured of Russki nerve agents by the NHS - best in the world!"

    [edited for risk of there being too many Boris's in this story!]
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    And what's the betting Putin didn't get permission to tap the call?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43652574

    Hmph, that transcript doesn't exactly scream authenticity

    Viktoria: Yes, I hear you.

    Alleged Yulia: It is Yulia Skripal.

    Viktoria: Oh, Yulka [diminutive of Yulia] it is you! I recognise from your voice that it is you but cannot understand. So, they gave you a telephone, didn't they?

    Alleged Yulia: Yes, yes.
    And "Everything is ok. He [her father] is resting now, having a sleep. Everyone's health is fine, there are no irreparable things. I will be discharged soon. Everything is ok."

    Followed up no doubt with the Russian Ambassador getting wall-to-wall coverage on SKY and ITV stating baldly "See, they are OK! If this had been Russian Novichok, believe me, they would not have got better.... Porton Down make shoddy knock-off of proper Russki tools for the job...."
    I am sure Corbyn believes it is legit...
    Yulia Skripal's cousin herself is claiming it's legit; she's been giving TV interviews.

    Though whether it's genuinely Yulia on the other line (or, indeed, what "side" the cousin is on in this) is another matter
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I didn't know somebody with brain damage in an induced coma could make phone calls.
  • Ambassador absolutely denies ever having Novichok saying it was the US who developed it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    Those five alternatives are a very good reason for Theresa May to stay in post at least until she loses the next election. Not one of them is an improvement, which is why she got the gig in the first place. At least she is sensible, tries to do a reasonable job and isn't obviously dishonest or weird.
    May is increasingly the thin blue line, holding us from facing the GE choice of Mogg or Corbyn for PM.

    Ironic Blairites and Cameroons will have to prop up May as long as possible
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    Those five alternatives are a very good reason for Theresa May to stay in post at least until she loses the next election. Not one of them is an improvement, which is why she got the gig in the first place. At least she is sensible, tries to do a reasonable job and isn't obviously dishonest or weird.
    Largely true though Boris polls slightly better than May and on current polls May would not lose anyway
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg again tops the Conservative Home Tory members poll for next Tory leader on 19%.

    Gove is second on 17%, Boris third on 12%, Rudd fourth on 7% and Hunt fifth on 6%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html

    Those five alternatives are a very good reason for Theresa May to stay in post at least until she loses the next election. Not one of them is an improvement, which is why she got the gig in the first place. At least she is sensible, tries to do a reasonable job and isn't obviously dishonest or weird.
    May is increasingly the thin blue line, holding us from facing the GE choice of Mogg or Corbyn for PM.

    Yes, the situation is not comfortable for those of a nervous disposition.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Ambassador absolutely denies ever having Novichok saying it was the US who developed it

    So they are claiming this nobody is a liar?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=748wLBWdchU&t=5s
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Ambassador absolutely denies ever having Novichok saying it was the US who developed it

    So it's the Americans now,these guys are all over the place.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited April 2018
    The Russian Ambassador is frankly embarrassing

    He rejected Boris claim that Porton Down identified it as Novichok so is in denial of the nerve agent used

  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Ambassador absolutely denies ever having Novichok saying it was the US who developed it

    So it's the Americans now,these guys are all over the place.
    It was a joint operation of the intelligence services of the UK, US, Ukraine, Sweden, Israel and others that I have forgotten according to the Russians who never lie about this sort of thing. They'll get around to blaming the Chechens soon.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Ambassador absolutely denies ever having Novichok saying it was the US who developed it

    Yes, the Americans even gave it a Russian name!

    *facepalm*
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.

    Nice. "Russians didn't do it - because of Brexit...."

    Twat of the Day, in a crowded field.....
  • I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.

    It is not Brexit - more likely Iraq but the more you listen to the ramblings of the Russian Ambassador the more you are convinced on the case that Russia are responsible
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), be fair. It's not hard identifying spies when they're yours.

    Indeed. They even knew about the attack before it had happened!

    Mr. Mark, maybe it wasn't the Russians who tapped the call. Maybe it was the French. Or Mossad.

    #CorbynVindicated

    [/sarcasm, for anyone new here]

    Doll-gate,

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/05/bbc-show-corbyn-russian-doll/
    Was the doll inside Putin that of Corbyn?
    Corbyn has been accused of being inside Abbott but not Corbyn so far as I am aware.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), be fair. It's not hard identifying spies when they're yours.

    Indeed. They even knew about the attack before it had happened!

    Mr. Mark, maybe it wasn't the Russians who tapped the call. Maybe it was the French. Or Mossad.

    #CorbynVindicated

    [/sarcasm, for anyone new here]

    Doll-gate,

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/05/bbc-show-corbyn-russian-doll/
    Was the doll inside Putin that of Corbyn?
    Corbyn has been accused of being inside Abbott but not Corbyn so far as I am aware.
    Mind bleach required.
  • I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.

    Theresa May is probably the most dishonest PM since Blair.

    'Nothing has changed' or do you want me to list the number of times she said she wouldn't call an early election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Oops - that should have been 'Corbyn has been accused of being inside Abbott but not Putin so far as I am aware.'

    Admittedly the image of Corbyn being up himself does have some merit...
  • Russian Ambassador - again says NEVER produced Novichok which seems extraordinary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Russian Ambassador - again says NEVER produced Novichok which seems extraordinary.

    It's not extraordinary. It's simply not true.

    I sometimes wonder whether the prime requirement for being a successful diplomat is of an IQ below 3. Does he honestly think anyone is going to swallow this?

    The way things have gone, the Russians would be a lot better off coming out and saying, 'Yes, we did this, and any other two timers who f*** with the FSB will get the same.'

    Since we've already done most of the things we can, they would at least not look quite so ridiculous and panicky.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.

    Nice. "Russians didn't do it - because of Brexit...."

    Twat of the Day, in a crowded field.....
    I didn’t say that.
    But I struggle to think of a government in our history who have to lie day in day out about their main (only) policy.

    As Big G points out, much of the damage was done by Blair’s Iraq policy, but Brexit itself is surely making things worse.

    Your failure to understand that actually betwattens you.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.

    Theresa May is probably the most dishonest PM since Blair.

    'Nothing has changed' or do you want me to list the number of times she said she wouldn't call an early election.
    She’s totally crap, but she cannot actually state out loud that Brexit is worth it. Because it’s a totally false prospectus.

    As for the no early election, that may well have been the case until her moment of madness in the (Welsh) mountains.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.

    Nice. "Russians didn't do it - because of Brexit...."

    Twat of the Day, in a crowded field.....
    I didn’t say that.
    But I struggle to think of a government in our history who have to lie day in day out about their main (only) policy.

    As Big G points out, much of the damage was done by Blair’s Iraq policy, but Brexit itself is surely making things worse.

    Your failure to understand that actually betwattens you.
    Iraq
    Suez
    Appeasement
    Arguably Heath in the 1970s over the EEC
    Grenville over the slave trade
    Disraeli over the Ottomans
    Gladstone over Ireland
    Lloyd George over peace talks
    Baldwin over industrial relations
    Attlee over welfare spending

    And that's without making an effort.

    Admittedly Blair set new standards of mendacity - the quite extraordinary thing about the Iraq war is it may be the only time he genuinely believed he was telling the truth - but there is a reason why politicians (and indeed diplomats) have a long-standing reputation for dishonesty.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.

    Not trusting our governments today must be put at the door at Blair and his spin masters.
  • NEW THREAD

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    ydoethur said:

    I have no time for those puppeting the Russian line, but one of the reasons there seems to be a decent chunk of people prepared to believe Putin (or give him a “fair” hearing) is that they cannot trust the government.

    Although Theresa May herself is very honest for a senior politician, she presides over a government whose whole prospectus, ie Brexit, is based on deceit.

    In turn this means we have to put up with much of the cabinet insisting it is midday when it is 9am, that it is sunny when it is raining, etc.

    It has a corrosive effect on public debate.

    Nice. "Russians didn't do it - because of Brexit...."

    Twat of the Day, in a crowded field.....
    I didn’t say that.
    But I struggle to think of a government in our history who have to lie day in day out about their main (only) policy.

    As Big G points out, much of the damage was done by Blair’s Iraq policy, but Brexit itself is surely making things worse.

    Your failure to understand that actually betwattens you.
    Iraq
    Suez
    Appeasement
    Arguably Heath in the 1970s over the EEC
    Grenville over the slave trade
    Disraeli over the Ottomans
    Gladstone over Ireland
    Lloyd George over peace talks
    Baldwin over industrial relations
    Attlee over welfare spending

    And that's without making an effort.

    Admittedly Blair set new standards of mendacity - the quite extraordinary thing about the Iraq war is it may be the only time he genuinely believed he was telling the truth - but there is a reason why politicians (and indeed diplomats) have a long-standing reputation for dishonesty.
    You actually have to make the case that these were all lies that characterise the entire administration.

    Both Suez and Iraq are better thought of as crises that led Eden and Blair into deceit. Appeasement seems more of a catastrophic (but understandable) error of judgment than a ongoing policy of mendacity.

    I’m not qualified to talk about the rest, but trying to put Attlee’s social welfare on a par with May’s Brext is beneath you.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    hunchman said:
    .....Did Russia want these two dead and did they want to leave a calling card on the bodies?

    The story so far

    .....they're not dead-the daughter is recovering-and the calling card was so badly printed that there's now serious doubt that they left it.

    So two possibilities

    It was a botched job or British intelligence got it wrong.

    Conclusions

    British intelligence have history. They erroneously told the world that Saddam had chemical weapons that they could deploy in 48 hours and they have a Foreign secretary who is a proven liar.

    The Russians had no motive for killing these two and if they'd wanted the world to know is it credible they'd have made such a pigs arse of it?


    .......I find for the Russians with costs










    Do you really believe that or are you just wanting to stir up some posters

    The truth is I don't know any more than anyone else. But look at it as a neutral from some far away country (or even as a Russian) and tell me that's not the conclusion you'd come to. Boris is known even here in France to be a bufffoon and a liar. Why can't Mrs May find someone who at least sounds trustworthy?
    You appear to be starting from the following position:
    *) I don't like this government.
    *) I like Corbyn and Labour.
    *) Corbyn and Labour mucked this up.
    *) I think Boris is a buffoon.

    And have developed a position accordingly.

    I've criticised Boris plenty of times on here, but I think he and May have played this well. Not perfectly, but well. Certainly Boris has got many countries to act in concerted action against Russia.
    LOL, Boris and well are oxymorons and one has no oxy
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    Hon how pb’s Leavers laughed when I tried to convey just how alienated London was from the government because of Brexit.
    " This is Radio Free Islington calling ... "

    I'm expecting 200+ gains for the LibDems in London if the election is all about Brexit.

    And I'm hoping to see the London Independence Party make an appearnace.
    Labour is the anti-Brexit party of choice. Conservatives can protest till they’re blue in the face that doesn’t make sense, but it is.
    So in Labour against LibDem battles in boroughs like Islington, Haringay, Lambeth and Southwark Labour are the anti-Brexit party of choice.

    Well its a point of view ...

    Its all about Brexit apparently except where it isn't.
    Things have moved on a lot since 2010.

    Islington really isn't a Labour against Lib Dem battle. The sole non-Labour councillor is Green. The Greens also came a distant second in the vote share last time. The Lib Dems came fourth in Lambeth with no seats.

    In Haringey and Southwark, the Lib Dems are indeed a distant second, but not in any sense that would call them battlegrounds.

    In which case people have nothing to lose in voting LibDem if Brexit is their key issue.
    They’re simply not seen as relevant. Labour is perceived as being the more Remain-friendly of the two main parties and will pick up votes accordingly.
    That is not true in many areas e.g. in Richmond Park, Montgomeryshire, Bath, St Ives, Cheltenham, Lewes, Eastbourne, Oxfordshire, Cumbria, North Norfolk etc it is the LDs who are the main alternative to the Tories and in areas like Sheffield and Cambridge and Southwark it is the LDs who are the main alternative to Labour
    Aren't the Tories the alternative to the Lib Dems in Eastbourne?
This discussion has been closed.