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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggsy edges up to a new high in the next CON leader betting

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    AndyJS said:

    In 2003 there were 204 homicides in London, which is about the same rate as this year, but I don't remember it being a big news issue at the time for whatever reasons.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_London

    I don't think its a big news issue at the moment except maybe to those in London or those trying to use it as a political football.
    It was the norm then, as well. We've had several years of unusually few murders in London, so reverting to the mean seems shocking.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.
    We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    Oh dear, poor old Rajoy, what a shame.

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981955649591500800

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981939693473460225

    I believe Puigdemont can still be extradited on misuse of funds for the referendum.

    I thought he had not used any government funds though
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Oh dear, poor old Rajoy, what a shame.

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981955649591500800

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981939693473460225

    I believe Puigdemont can still be extradited on misuse of funds for the referendum.

    At least the PP haven't fallen below 20% yet

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    There are good reasons why people get more conservative as they get older. I can't think of any reason the EU should appeal to a particular age group.
    I think that opposition to the EU is small c conservative.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited April 2018
    Hungary; Fidesz 45 (-4) MSZP 19 (+1) Jobbik 20 (+3) LMP 7 (-1)

    That's approximately UKIP, Labour, the BNP, and the Greens respectively.

    Changes on three weeks ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    edited April 2018
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.
    We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.
    Of course we're not going back to anything like we have now. We're going to join the Euro.

    By the way, it's interesting that you say "on the other side of the Channel" when we will obviously be much closer to the EU than that given the 300-mile land border.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.
    We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing,
    Agriculture and fishing may not be sacrificed on Day 1 of Brexit but they represent such a small slice of GDP and so few MP constituencies that at some point they will be used to achieve a better deal with the EU. Certainly no Labour government is going to prioritise them at the expense of the more productive parts of the economy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    edited April 2018
    malcolmg said:

    Oh dear, poor old Rajoy, what a shame.

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981955649591500800

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981939693473460225

    I believe Puigdemont can still be extradited on misuse of funds for the referendum.

    I thought he had not used any government funds though
    I think that's the case and embarassingly I believe there's footage of Rajoy saying as much. Hopefully the German courts will agree.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"
    Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    calum said:
    Will Arlene use her Irish citizenship - as someone born in the 32 counties - to emigrate to the EU?

    If you look at the Irish passport you wouldn't even think Northern Ireland existed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.
    We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.
    Of course we're not going back to anything like we have now. We're going to join the Euro.

    r.
    Not a chance.

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Hungary; Fidesz 45 (-4) MSZP 19 (+1) Jobbik 20 (+3) LMP 7 (-1)

    That's approximately UKIP, Labour, the BNP, and the Greens respectively.

    Changes on three weeks ago.

    Looks like a landslide for Orban then with Jobbik as the official opposition.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    brendan16 said:

    calum said:
    Will Arlene use her Irish citizenship - as someone born in the 32 counties - to emigrate to the EU?

    If you look at the Irish passport you wouldn't even think Northern Ireland existed.
    When the Euro coins first came out, Norway was left off the map of Europe as it was outside the EU.

    Shame it made Sweden and Finland look like a cock and balls, but you can't win 'em all.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"
    Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?
    Yes, why not trade with the whole world, rather than just 27 other nations representing just 13% of global GDP?

    Rejoin is a very tough prospect. The Euro, no rebate, £350m per week in membership fees, etc...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"
    Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?
    Yes, why not trade with the whole world, rather than just 27 other nations representing just 13% of global GDP?

    Rejoin is a very tough prospect. The Euro, no rebate, £350m per week in membership fees, etc...
    How does extending the scope of your own internal market limit external trade? You wouldn't argue that Scottish independence was about trading with the world rather than just part of the British Isles, would you?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"
    Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?
    Yes, why not trade with the whole world, rather than just 27 other nations representing just 13% of global GDP?

    Rejoin is a very tough prospect. The Euro, no rebate, £350m per week in membership fees, etc...
    How does extending the scope of your own internal market limit external trade? You wouldn't argue that Scottish independence was about trading with the world rather than just part of the British Isles, would you?
    Tbh, using the Scotland line with me won't work because I was in favour of Scottish independence
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"
    Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?
    Yes, why not trade with the whole world, rather than just 27 other nations representing just 13% of global GDP?

    Rejoin is a very tough prospect. The Euro, no rebate, £350m per week in membership fees, etc...
    And if we get some quick trade deals in the next few years, rejoining the EU would necessitate ripping them up. Would we want to upset the likes of Aus, NZ, Singapore or even the US?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    MaxPB said:

    How does extending the scope of your own internal market limit external trade? You wouldn't argue that Scottish independence was about trading with the world rather than just part of the British Isles, would you?

    Tbh, using the Scotland line with me won't work because I was in favour of Scottish independence
    But presumably not because you thought it was a gateway to more global trade?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,261
    Betting post if you're punting on the local elections - analysis (by a centrist member who is not a Corbyn fan, but this is a factual piece) of where Labour's share in by-elections does best and worst:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/04/luke-akehurst-ahead-of-the-local-elections-labour-is-in-a-strong-position/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Sandpit said:


    And if we get some quick trade deals in the next few years, rejoining the EU would necessitate ripping them up. Would we want to upset the likes of Aus, NZ, Singapore or even the US?

    I doubt we'd sign a trade deal with the US (or China). The issue will be giving up trade gains made by diverging from EU regulations. We don't need a trade deal with the US to export more, but we may need a more flexible regulatory environment for goods production.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited April 2018
    brendan16 said:

    Hungary; Fidesz 45 (-4) MSZP 19 (+1) Jobbik 20 (+3) LMP 7 (-1)

    That's approximately UKIP, Labour, the BNP, and the Greens respectively.

    Changes on three weeks ago.

    Looks like a landslide for Orban then with Jobbik as the official opposition.
    In seats:

    Fidesz 153 (+20)
    MSZP 21 (-17 - old Unity party)
    Jobbi 21 (-2)
    LMP 6 (+1)
    DK 5 (+5)

    Orban's supermajority restored.


    (This does assume the same list as consistency votes.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    How does extending the scope of your own internal market limit external trade? You wouldn't argue that Scottish independence was about trading with the world rather than just part of the British Isles, would you?

    Tbh, using the Scotland line with me won't work because I was in favour of Scottish independence
    But presumably not because you thought it was a gateway to more global trade?
    No.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    You think being in favour of the EU is left wing?
    Yes, ultimately the EU is collectivism. That's a very left wing idea.
    Nonsense. The EU is a check on the inherent collectivism of nationalism.
    The EU is a check on nothing. It is a collectivist organisation which wants to pool the power of independent nations into something they hope will be more than the sum of the individuals.
    Nations are not individuals but collectives.
    Nation states hold power on an individual basis. For example, the US can go to war, California can't.
    Depends if Nevada continues to steal our water or not :wink:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    We aren't going to pay the membership fees to re-join. Going to be toxic. "So which hospitals are you going to close to pay to re-join?"
    Do you believe free trade increases a countries GDP?
    Yes, why not trade with the whole world, rather than just 27 other nations representing just 13% of global GDP?

    Rejoin is a very tough prospect. The Euro, no rebate, £350m per week in membership fees, etc...
    And if we get some quick trade deals in the next few years, rejoining the EU would necessitate ripping them up. Would we want to upset the likes of Aus, NZ, Singapore or even the US?
    * Looks at current order book*

    Rip up those deals. There's more trade to be had in EU.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    MaxPB said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    You think being in favour of the EU is left wing?
    Yes, ultimately the EU is collectivism. That's a very left wing idea.
    Nonsense. The EU is a check on the inherent collectivism of nationalism.
    Absolutely which is why any hard left dingbat worth his salt is anti Single Market.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RoyalBlue said:



    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728

    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

    Not quite, because some mistakes are not readily reversible due to the impact they have already had. This may be one of them. Already I think we're all exhausted by the endless (my autocorrect made that 'needless', which works too) toing and froing over this.

    It is only if a majority of the country - probably a large majority - becomes convinced that not being a member of the EU is a serious mistake, and they believe it trumps all other issues while they are voting - that is the moment at which rejoining becomes a realistic possibility.

    I have to say the first seems possible, the second does not. Europe has always been a matter of passionate interest for a noisy minority. For most other people, it's of little or no interest. That doesn't seem likely to change given the headwinds the EU itself is running into and the mistakes it is making. It is hard to see that going through all this again to rejoin an organisation in need of fundamental reform will be attractive to many, never mind a majority.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    RoyalBlue said:



    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:



    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    The ‘Leave aristocracy’ are well-connected, articulate and determined. Stop pretending that every Remainer is a fellow of All Souls and every Leaver is a window-licking troglodyte.

    You should be quite happy in post-Brexit Britain if you like Orban’s Hungary. It might be a bit mild for you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Brilliant goal by Ramsey. Ronaldoesque.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.

    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    The ‘Leave aristocracy’ are well-connected, articulate and determined. Stop pretending that every Remainer is a fellow of All Souls and every Leaver is a window-licking troglodyte.

    You should be quite happy in post-Brexit Britain if you like Orban’s Hungary. It might be a bit mild for you.
    "a bit mild" meaning the weather or the antisemitism?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Yeh, but they’re not telling you because you’re a known Brexit bore.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    RoyalBlue said:

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

    Let me be honest - I'm no friend of the Conservative Party but traditionally Conservative leaders have been prepared to act in the national interest rather than out of some ideological conception.

    I voted to LEAVE and I think and believe we will be fine beyond the confines of EU membership. However, I'm prepared to recognise I might be wrong and for whatever reason be it circumstance or incompetence the current or a future Government might find itself looking at a real crisis the only solution to which might be to seek to re-establish the economic and political relationship with the EU.

    IF that happens I would expect the Prime Minister of the day to do whatever it takes to protect the economic interests of the UK and if that means returning us to the EU so be it.

    I also accept that IF at a future election a Party seeking to re-negotiate our return to the EU wins a majority the Prime Minister will have to be given a fair opportunity to seek favourable terms for our re-accession and put those to the electorate in a referendum.

    The door isn't shut and locked for all time.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited April 2018

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    ...want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.

    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
    Polling? We're believing that again are we?

    And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Yeh, but they’re not telling you because you’re a known Brexit bore.
    Most people are simply not very political; this is something that too many here often forget.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
    Polling? We're believing that again are we?

    And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.
    You have the decency to lie about it now.

    I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    RoyalBlue said:



    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.
    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    A big part of the reason so much of the 'establishment' was pro-Remain is because EU membership was the status quo. Lobbyists, like most people, are typically more worried about losing what they have than gaining what they could have. Come 2025 or 2030, there will be plenty of people benefitting from arrangements outside the EU and the Outers will benefit from the status quo bias.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
    Polling? We're believing that again are we?

    And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.
    You have the decency to lie about it now.

    I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.
    No need to lie; it didn't happen.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
    Polling? We're believing that again are we?

    And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.
    You have the decency to lie about it now.

    I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.
    You keep talking about younger voters - my cohort are just turning 30/31. They have simply moved on....

    The only mate I have who continues to whinge about the result is late 40s.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    brendan16 said:

    Hungary; Fidesz 45 (-4) MSZP 19 (+1) Jobbik 20 (+3) LMP 7 (-1)

    That's approximately UKIP, Labour, the BNP, and the Greens respectively.

    Changes on three weeks ago.

    Looks like a landslide for Orban then with Jobbik as the official opposition.
    In seats:

    Fidesz 153 (+20)
    MSZP 21 (-17 - old Unity party)
    Jobbi 21 (-2)
    LMP 6 (+1)
    DK 5 (+5)

    Orban's supermajority restored.


    (This does assume the same list as consistency votes.)
    Apologies, this slightly overestimates Fidesz, because it ignores "wasted votes" which are transferred from constituencies to the party list.

    With them included, it becomes:

    Fidesz 142 (+9)
    MSZP 22 (-16)
    Jobbik (22 (-1)
    LMP 7 (+2)
    DK 6 (+6)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    edited April 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
    Polling? We're believing that again are we?

    And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.
    You have the decency to lie about it now.

    I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.
    No need to lie; it didn't happen.
    Boris Johnson certainly did.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/14/boris-johnson-the-eu-wants-a-superstate-just-as-hitler-did/

    If I recall correctly you drew an analogy between Dunkirk and Brexit.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    Oh dear, poor old Rajoy, what a shame.

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981955649591500800

    https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/981939693473460225

    I believe Puigdemont can still be extradited on misuse of funds for the referendum.

    Since our discussion last week, I struggled to think what law you would use to prosecute members of the Catalonia government. Maybe a contempt of court as a judge had ruled the referendum illegal but the Catalan government went ahead with it anyway. But I think the court would normally decide the politicians had acted ultra vires so the referendum doesn't happen, which it didn't ultimately, and that's the end of it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

    One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
    Polling? We're believing that again are we?

    And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.
    You have the decency to lie about it now.

    I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.
    No need to lie; it didn't happen.
    Boris Johnson certainly did.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/14/boris-johnson-the-eu-wants-a-superstate-just-as-hitler-did/

    If I recall correctly you drew and analogy between Dunkirk and Brexit.
    Not an analogy, no. I had the audacity to mention Dunkirk and Remainers in the same post.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MaxPB said:

    Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

    One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.
    If you read my post you would see that I acknowledge that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/audio-video/sadiq-khan-bereaved-families-london-murders-gang/

    If headlines like these make it big then I think Sadiq is in trouble.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    MaxPB said:

    Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

    One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.
    If you read my post you would see that I acknowledge that.
    MaxPB said:

    Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

    One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.
    Fidesz does, however, perform worse than polling.

    2014: polled 48%, received 45% (party list)
    2010: polled 59%, received 53% (party list).

    The Hungarian system is not particularly susceptible to tactical voting, much less where Fidesz enters almost every constituency with 40% of the vote (so you would need to unite almost everyone else). Also voting for a smaller party might help Fidesz; if you fail to win the constituency, and the smaller party gets less than 5%, then its party list vote is ignored.

    The only "safe" way to vote tactically is to vote Jobbik or MSZP - and I am quite sure Alastair's circle are not the Jobbik type...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    AndyJS said:

    It's said the Tories in London are rubbish at social media. Well, in support of that thesis, the Conservative leader of Westminster council, Nickie Aiken, has just 846 followers on Twitter despite having been on the platform since 2010.

    https://twitter.com/nickieaiken

    She actually has two Twitter accounts. The other, more official one, is leader_wcc

    Which has a staggering 310 followers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
    Polling? We're believing that again are we?

    And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.
    You have the decency to lie about it now.

    I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.
    You keep talking about younger voters - my cohort are just turning 30/31. They have simply moved on....

    The only mate I have who continues to whinge about the result is late 40s.
    Still preferring anecdote over polling, I see. Not surprising from a man who likens the EU to Nazi Germany and now lies about it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    That's more or less my view.

    But, I can see many Remainers buying burgundy EU passport covers for their new blue British passports from Summer next year, just as I bought and used the reverse for years.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    MaxPB said:

    Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

    One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.
    If you read my post you would see that I acknowledge that.
    He could, or he could just repeat ‘Xenophobic lies!’ to himself 100 times.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Jonathan said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    Naive to think Britain's relationship with the rest of Europe is settled. Agree though we cannot see today how this might play out.
    One of the most sensible things said all day.

    None of us know.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.
    We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.
    Assuming we get there smoothly, I think a close association agreement with the EU could work very well for the UK.

    We've seen in recent weeks over Russia how Brexit is no real obstacle to pan-continental cooperation.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    MaxPB said:

    Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

    One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.
    If you read my post you would see that I acknowledge that.
    MaxPB said:

    Hungarians of my circle are looking to vote tactically against Fidesz. They will largely fail but Fidesz might well underperform their polling.

    One imagines the Hungarians of your circle are not representative of the population.
    Fidesz does, however, perform worse than polling.

    2014: polled 48%, received 45% (party list)
    2010: polled 59%, received 53% (party list).

    The Hungarian system is not particularly susceptible to tactical voting, much less where Fidesz enters almost every constituency with 40% of the vote (so you would need to unite almost everyone else). Also voting for a smaller party might help Fidesz; if you fail to win the constituency, and the smaller party gets less than 5%, then its party list vote is ignored.

    The only "safe" way to vote tactically is to vote Jobbik or MSZP - and I am quite sure Alastair's circle are not the Jobbik type...
    There’s a debate about whether you should tactically vote for Jobbik. The standard view in the city is indeed no. However, it’s not in the city where that’s usually more than a theoretical question.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.
    We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.
    Assuming we get there smoothly, I think a close association agreement with the EU could work very well for the UK.

    We've seen in recent weeks over Russia how Brexit is no real obstacle to pan-continental cooperation.
    Do you really think that a marginal reduction in sales of Ferrero Rocher is the unmitigated triumph for British diplomacy that is being presented?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:


    You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.
    Look at the nature of the opposition. It is well-connected, articulate and determined. Meanwhile the Leave aristocracy have been abundantly justifying their previous image of wacko mediocrity.

    Right now to me it looks more likely than not Britain will be back in the EU by 2030. If it is, Leavers will be a byword for failed and counterproductive reactionary nationalism.
    This opposition you talk of hasn't manifested itself out of the capital, or among my articulate, well educated group of mates who almost without fail voted Remain.

    All but one of those I know have accepted the result and moved on. They have had children, got new jobs or started businesses since the Brexit vote.
    Wonderful anecdote from a man who compared the EU with Nazi Germany. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that a quarter of the electorate think the result was cheated, a third think Britain should join the Euro and every poll bar one for many months shows that a plurality think the vote was a mistake.
    Polling? We're believing that again are we?

    And no, I didn't compare the EU to Nazi Germany.
    You have the decency to lie about it now.

    I note that you don’t bother trying to explain away the poll findings that contradict your spurious anecdote.
    You keep talking about younger voters - my cohort are just turning 30/31. They have simply moved on....

    The only mate I have who continues to whinge about the result is late 40s.
    I think it's the more idealistic British Europeans in their 40s, 50s and 60s who are most heartbroken over the EU referendum result; the ones who were pursuing that dream from the late 80s to the mid noughties when they came of age politically and Europe looked like the bright new future.

    I think those aged 16-30 are more transactional and will largely forget it if the post-Brexit deal provides global opportunities for them, without throwing up obstacles.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Jonathan said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    Naive to think Britain's relationship with the rest of Europe is settled. Agree though we cannot see today how this might play out.
    One of the most sensible things said all day.

    None of us know.
    Interesting thread:
    https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676600117821440
    https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676710608429056
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    stodge said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Fortunately, most people in this country don’t think like you. Once Brexit is a fact, it will be seen as highly eccentric to want to reopen the issue, at least until the mid-2020s. By then, the EU will look quite different, and any attempt to rejoin would face the hurdle of a referendum.

    It took Eurosceptics 41 years to get a second referendum. You’ll just have to wait.

    Let me be honest - I'm no friend of the Conservative Party but traditionally Conservative leaders have been prepared to act in the national interest rather than out of some ideological conception.

    I voted to LEAVE and I think and believe we will be fine beyond the confines of EU membership. However, I'm prepared to recognise I might be wrong and for whatever reason be it circumstance or incompetence the current or a future Government might find itself looking at a real crisis the only solution to which might be to seek to re-establish the economic and political relationship with the EU.

    IF that happens I would expect the Prime Minister of the day to do whatever it takes to protect the economic interests of the UK and if that means returning us to the EU so be it.

    I also accept that IF at a future election a Party seeking to re-negotiate our return to the EU wins a majority the Prime Minister will have to be given a fair opportunity to seek favourable terms for our re-accession and put those to the electorate in a referendum.

    The door isn't shut and locked for all time.

    There are no final victories in politics.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
  • ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    Yeah, there's a few issues
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.
    We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.
    Assuming we get there smoothly, I think a close association agreement with the EU could work very well for the UK.

    We've seen in recent weeks over Russia how Brexit is no real obstacle to pan-continental cooperation.
    Post-Brexit we won't be in the European Council meetings...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
    Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Sean_F said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.
    We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Jonathan said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    Naive to think Britain's relationship with the rest of Europe is settled. Agree though we cannot see today how this might play out.
    One of the most sensible things said all day.

    None of us know.
    Interesting thread:
    https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676600117821440
    https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676710608429056
    Some random on twitter says things you like to read. What's new?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
    Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.
    I claim to have voted Remain, because I voted Remain. It's just that I process disappointment like an adult.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Sean_F said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.
    We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.
    We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
    Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.
    I claim to have voted Remain, because I voted Remain. It's just that I process disappointment like an adult.
    Sick burn.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
    Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.
    I claim to have voted Remain, because I voted Remain. It's just that I process disappointment like an adult.
    I wouldn’t trust you to tell the time. You have a long track record of lying and refusing to accept corrections. You also have a frankly weird obsession with me personally. You are the only poster on pb that for me the site would be improved by your absence.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    That assumes we will have left on anything other than a 'name only' basis within any reasonable time frame. So far there's absolutely no reason to believe that we will.
    We will have changed the legal basis of our laws, the way we deal with agriculture and fishing, we will (thank the Lord) have no MEPs and we will have got used to not being in a Customs Union for good or ill. On the other side of the Channel we will have a more integrated EU with centralised approval of budgets and tax rates, probably no EU members not in the Euro etc etc. Going back to anything like we have now will not be an option.
    Assuming we get there smoothly, I think a close association agreement with the EU could work very well for the UK.

    We've seen in recent weeks over Russia how Brexit is no real obstacle to pan-continental cooperation.
    Post-Brexit we won't be in the European Council meetings...
    Those are just summits of the Prime Ministers of the EU28, together with an EU chair, which we're already largely excluded from most of it as it is. They're not much different from the G8 or G20.

    Post Brexit, we will continue to lobby each bilaterally, and a forum for us to come together in the same room to discuss security, defence and foreign affairs will be established. It just won't be called the European Council
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
    Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.
    I claim to have voted Remain, because I voted Remain. It's just that I process disappointment like an adult.
    I wouldn’t trust you to tell the time. You have a long track record of lying and refusing to accept corrections. You also have a frankly weird obsession with me personally. You are the only poster on pb that for me the site would be improved by your absence.
    I think that last sentence sums up how a lot of us feel about you.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
    Because your comment here has the same truthfulness as some of Joseph Goebbels more imaginative efforts?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728
    Ishmael_Z said:


    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com

    For a number of reasons that's the site I normally access the comments from anyway, so that hasn't helped.

    Thanks @TSE for confirming it isn't anything at my end.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    Yeah, there's a few issues
    All day I've been unable to type in my username and password (they are stored but every few weeks it demands they are re-entered).

    The box to type them into simply would not load.

    It has now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Jonathan said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    Naive to think Britain's relationship with the rest of Europe is settled. Agree though we cannot see today how this might play out.
    One of the most sensible things said all day.

    None of us know.
    Interesting thread:
    https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676600117821440
    https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676710608429056
    Lost me at "Conservatives have too many racists".

    The rest is just opinion and conjecture.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
    Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.
    I claim to have voted Remain, because I voted Remain. It's just that I process disappointment like an adult.
    I wouldn’t trust you to tell the time. You have a long track record of lying and refusing to accept corrections. You also have a frankly weird obsession with me personally. You are the only poster on pb that for me the site would be improved by your absence.
    Because I point out your eye-popping hypocrisy?

    It's as if a letter were to emerge from the Mitford family archives reading:

    Dear Diana

    I don't like the look of that Mosley man one bit, he has xenophobic liar written all over him.

    Adolf sends hugs

    Unity x
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952

    Sean_F said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.
    We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.
    We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.
    17.4m Brexiters = "a few people"

    *titter*
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HEADLINE - Moggy Euthanized At Porton Down

    Next Con Leader bettors in turmoil .... :smiley:
  • ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com

    For a number of reasons that's the site I normally access the comments from anyway, so that hasn't helped.

    Thanks @TSE for confirming it isn't anything at my end.
    This is a family site, can we have no further discussions about your end.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Jonathan said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

    Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

    In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.
    Naive to think Britain's relationship with the rest of Europe is settled. Agree though we cannot see today how this might play out.
    One of the most sensible things said all day.

    None of us know.
    Interesting thread:
    https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676600117821440
    https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/981676710608429056
    If he was right he’d be keeping his head down and hoping no one notices. The fact he is shouting about it makes me think he’s trying to convince himself
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Sean_F said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.
    We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.
    We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.
    Well, unfortunately for you, a majority of people decided they didn't like it two years ago, and the policy of HMG is to disintegrate from the EU, and diverge, in a number of areas.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com

    For a number of reasons that's the site I normally access the comments from anyway, so that hasn't helped.

    Thanks @TSE for confirming it isn't anything at my end.
    This is a family site, can we have no further discussions about your end.
    Fair enough, Mr Eagles, I earned that rebuke.

    Can I talk about my huge organ with its eight foot horn instead?
  • Farage and Banks are backing Putin and Russia.

    I am shocked. SHOCKED.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com

    For a number of reasons that's the site I normally access the comments from anyway, so that hasn't helped.

    Thanks @TSE for confirming it isn't anything at my end.
    This is a family site, can we have no further discussions about your end.
    Fair enough, Mr Eagles, I earned that rebuke.

    Can I talk about my huge organ with its eight foot horn instead?
    Absolutely, that is a PB tradition.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Sean_F said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

    https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

    Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.
    Take it up with them, not me.

    My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.
    That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.
    Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.
    The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

    In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.
    Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.
    We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.
    We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.
    Current draft EU legislation suggests restricting the import of cultural goods (including books) to stop terror funding. Because, from the best of my understanding, the EU doesn't have a clue how the market in cultural goods actually works.

    You can dream about your ademocratic integration with fools like that. I'll stick with democracy
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050

    Farage and Banks are backing Putin and Russia.

    I am shocked. SHOCKED.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

    He who pays the piper calls the tune!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,728

    Farage and Banks are backing Putin and Russia.

    I am shocked. SHOCKED.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

    Ah, Boris Yeltsin.

    Happy days...
    https://youtu.be/v9YnDirqwT4
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is anyone else having problems with Vanilla? I've just been cut off from the site for 35 minutes.

    Admittedly it doesn't look as if I've missed a lot. When can we get back to interesting subjects like Corbyn's record on anti-Semitism and Putin's attempts to hide his bungled assassination of Skripal?

    I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
    In other developments, it emerges that the crime for which there is no forgiveness of the day, is comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Lucky I discovered this when I was about to point out that Cameron's "It's the Reich or WW3" speech had a 1938 flavour to it. Phew!
    Up to your usual standard of truth-telling. For a man who claims to have voted Remain, you’re assiduous in spreading Leave lies.
    I claim to have voted Remain, because I voted Remain. It's just that I process disappointment like an adult.
    I wouldn’t trust you to tell the time. You have a long track record of lying and refusing to accept corrections. You also have a frankly weird obsession with me personally. You are the only poster on pb that for me the site would be improved by your absence.
    Because I point out your eye-popping hypocrisy?

    It's as if a letter were to emerge from the Mitford family archives reading:

    Dear Diana

    I don't like the look of that Mosley man one bit, he has xenophobic liar written all over him.

    Adolf sends hugs

    Unity x
    As I said, a frankly weird obsession with me, mixed with obvious untruths.

    I’m under no delusion that I’m of the slightest interest to the world at large. I’m not seeking election or the approbation of others. Assume, if you like, that I’m guilty of whatever eye-popping hypocrisy you choose to imagine (though you know far less of my personal circumstances than you obviously imagine). So what? It doesn’t invalidate anything I say.
This discussion has been closed.