The other strong impression I got from my Plymouth minicab epiphany was just how much Corbyn is perceived as another posh London politician, no different (i.e. no more or less posh or elitist) than anyone else in Westminster. He's seen as rich and deluded, with no clue how real people live. Like the rest: Labour or Tory
Clearly this is from people outside the Corbynista bubble, but that's where we need to look
Corbyn's weakness on defence and security issues was theoretical in 2017. Now, it's been shown to have some grounding in reality.
Bear in mind though, the Tories (pre Salisbury) have done a lot to trash their own reputation on defence and security.
But don't forget the UK is now an 'Aid Superpower'.
There's no point banging on about what a threat Corbyn is when you:-
1. Slash the armed forces, 2. Fund litigation against the armed forces, 3. Slash police numbers, 4. Prioritise overseas aid.
Hammond was probably the worst Defence Secretary ever.
I was ashamed of what the Conservatives did to Defence during the 2010 Parliament.
They should have frozen the Defence budget, got to grips with the £38bn funding hole, and then rebuilt it. Not slashed it.
Hammond went out of his way to cause maximum damage, even allowing for cuts in funding.
And Fox screwed Defence by destroying the Harrier and Nimrod fleets, just after both had been upgraded at considerable expense His funeral in the Kremlin wall is guaranteed.....
I never understood the point of actually destroying the planes.
Couldn't they have been stored in a hanger instead.
The Americans have a bloody great lump of desert they park these kinds of thing in.
I remember being on Mt. Lemmon in Arizona (on a birding trip) and scanning with my telescope across a mind-blowing expanse of parked jets. They went on for ever.
I have seen it too, it is a planespotters delight. Many that I had only seen in airfix/revell form.
The other strong impression I got from my Plymouth minicab epiphany was just how much Corbyn is perceived as another posh London politician, no different (i.e. no more or less posh or elitist) than anyone else in Westminster. He's seen as rich and deluded, with no clue how real people live. Like the rest: Labour or Tory
Clearly this is from people outside the Corbynista bubble, but that's where we need to look
Corbyn's weakness on defence and security issues was theoretical in 2017. Now, it's been shown to have some grounding in reality.
Bear in mind though, the Tories (pre Salisbury) have done a lot to trash their own reputation on defence and security.
But don't forget the UK is now an 'Aid Superpower'.
There's no point banging on about what a threat Corbyn is when you:-
1. Slash the armed forces, 2. Fund litigation against the armed forces, 3. Slash police numbers, 4. Prioritise overseas aid.
Hammond was probably the worst Defence Secretary ever.
I was ashamed of what the Conservatives did to Defence during the 2010 Parliament.
They should have frozen the Defence budget, got to grips with the £38bn funding hole, and then rebuilt it. Not slashed it.
Hammond went out of his way to cause maximum damage, even allowing for cuts in funding.
And Fox screwed Defence by destroying the Harrier and Nimrod fleets, just after both had been upgraded at considerable expense His funeral in the Kremlin wall is guaranteed.....
I never understood the point of actually destroying the planes.
Couldn't they have been stored in a hanger instead.
I thought the US marines bought the Harriers for spare parts?
The other strong impression I got from my Plymouth minicab epiphany was just how much Corbyn is perceived as another posh London politician, no different (i.e. no more or less posh or elitist) than anyone else in Westminster. He's seen as rich and deluded, with no clue how real people live. Like the rest: Labour or Tory
Clearly this is from people outside the Corbynista bubble, but that's where we need to look
Corbyn's weakness on defence and security issues was theoretical in 2017. Now, it's been shown to have some grounding in reality.
Bear in mind though, the Tories (pre Salisbury) have done a lot to trash their own reputation on defence and security.
But don't forget the UK is now an 'Aid Superpower'.
There's no point banging on about what a threat Corbyn is when you:-
1. Slash the armed forces, 2. Fund litigation against the armed forces, 3. Slash police numbers, 4. Prioritise overseas aid.
Hammond was probably the worst Defence Secretary ever.
I was ashamed of what the Conservatives did to Defence during the 2010 Parliament.
They should have frozen the Defence budget, got to grips with the £38bn funding hole, and then rebuilt it. Not slashed it.
Hammond went out of his way to cause maximum damage, even allowing for cuts in funding.
And Fox screwed Defence by destroying the Harrier and Nimrod fleets, just after both had been upgraded at considerable expense His funeral in the Kremlin wall is guaranteed.....
I never understood the point of actually destroying the planes.
Couldn't they have been stored in a hanger instead.
The Americans have a bloody great lump of desert they park these kinds of thing in.
I remember being on Mt. Lemmon in Arizona (on a birding trip) and scanning with my telescope across a mind-blowing expanse of parked jets. They went on for ever.
I've only seen the google maps images after a co-worker told me about it.
The other strong impression I got from my Plymouth minicab epiphany was just how much Corbyn is perceived as another posh London politician, no different (i.e. no more or less posh or elitist) than anyone else in Westminster. He's seen as rich and deluded, with no clue how real people live. Like the rest: Labour or Tory
Clearly this is from people outside the Corbynista bubble, but that's where we need to look
Corbyn seemed to go down particularly well in Cornwall though, with Labour almost winning seats like Truro & Falmouth where they usually come third or fourth.
Being Cornish I can confidently say these votes were more Brexity than anything else. Just another huge middle finger to the Establishment. The idea Corbyn is personally popular amongst Cornish working or lower middle class people is insane, I think. He is reviled.
It's just that the voters were in a very ornery mood.
That said, IF Labour replaced Corbyn with someone working/lower middle class and likeable (and not mad) they could easily win 2-3 seats in the county.
I think the electorate is very volatile. There will certainly come a point at which your May vs Corbyn prediction would be true, but in 2022? The pendulum could have swung a few more times by then.
I don't say this lightly buy I had a drink with some Labour supporters last night and there was definitely a change among them. One of them said he had suddenly had the realisation that maybe Corbyn was just an idiot and therefore not fit to be Prime Minister.
MASSIVE ANECDOTE ALERT
I got a ride from a woman Plymouth minicab driver yesterday. She was finishing her box of fish and chips as she collected me at my hotel. She was in a talkative mood and wanted to talk politics following a news story on the radio. From her accent I'd say she was Plymouth working class.
I can't imagine a more perfectly swingy swing voter than a female working class Plymouth minicab driver.
Her verdict? And I swear this is true. Even if it sounds like Roger.
"That Corbyn, he's an idiot, isn't he? And a liar. This tuition fees stuff, where's the money coming from? Who's gonna pay for it?"
Then she volunteered the idea:
"Theresa May. She's doing alright. She's OK. She's the only one I like."
I didn't venture a single opinion apart from the usual bland "I don't trust any of them".
(to be honest I wasn't in the mood for a long debate)
If this tiny anecdote has any weight, then Corbyn is heading for a massive defeat, disguised by protest polling. Put it another way: if working class working women in Plymouth despise him, he is fucked.
And Theresa May might have more support (albeit stunted and grudging) than we have imagined.
In my experience, all cab drivers are UKIP or Tories.
Denial maybe ?
I can honestly say I've never had a Labour supporting cab driver.
EDIT: Have you? Can you remember one? I bet you can remember UKIP ones.
To be honest I haven't used a taxi for years.
Mind you I will next month to take me from Euston to Paddington
Tube is far better for that trip
I've always found the Euston road a good place to hitch.
' The death blow came when investors refused to pump £125m into the company. But that followed three profit warnings in as many weeks, the first of which was blamed on an arithmetical error by a member of the finance team. A week later, Conviviality revealed it had also forgotten that it owed £30m to HM Revenue and Customs. '
The other strong impression I got from my Plymouth minicab epiphany was just how much Corbyn is perceived as another posh London politician, no different (i.e. no more or less posh or elitist) than anyone else in Westminster. He's seen as rich and deluded, with no clue how real people live. Like the rest: Labour or Tory
Clearly this is from people outside the Corbynista bubble, but that's where we need to look
Corbyn's weakness on defence and security issues was theoretical in 2017. Now, it's been shown to have some grounding in reality.
Bear in mind though, the Tories (pre Salisbury) have done a lot to trash their own reputation on defence and security.
But don't forget the UK is now an 'Aid Superpower'.
There's no point banging on about what a threat Corbyn is when you:-
1. Slash the armed forces, 2. Fund litigation against the armed forces, 3. Slash police numbers, 4. Prioritise overseas aid.
Hammond was probably the worst Defence Secretary ever.
I was ashamed of what the Conservatives did to Defence during the 2010 Parliament.
They should have frozen the Defence budget, got to grips with the £38bn funding hole, and then rebuilt it. Not slashed it.
Hammond went out of his way to cause maximum damage, even allowing for cuts in funding.
And Fox screwed Defence by destroying the Harrier and Nimrod fleets, just after both had been upgraded at considerable expense His funeral in the Kremlin wall is guaranteed.....
I never understood the point of actually destroying the planes.
Couldn't they have been stored in a hanger instead.
I thought the US marines bought the Harriers for spare parts?
72 x Harrier GR7/7a/9/9a went to AMARC at David-Monthan AFB for component recovery. That was actually one of Spreadsheet Phil's better deals.
The biggest crime in the scrapping of the Nimrod MRA4 was that it wasn't done immediately after the XV230 accident in Afghanistan in 2006. The MoD let a project that everyone involved knew was doomed stumble on for another four years.
I don't say this lightly buy I had a drink with some Labour supporters last night and there was definitely a change among them. One of them said he had suddenly had the realisation that maybe Corbyn was just an idiot and therefore not fit to be Prime Minister.
MASSIVE ANECDOTE ALERT
I got a ride from a woman Plymouth minicab driver yesterday. She was finishing her box of fish and chips as she collected me at my hotel. She was in a talkative mood and wanted to talk politics following a news story on the radio. From her accent I'd say she was Plymouth working class.
I can't imagine a more perfectly swingy swing voter than a female working class Plymouth minicab driver.
Her verdict? And I swear this is true. Even if it sounds like Roger.
"That Corbyn, he's an idiot, isn't he? And a liar. This tuition fees stuff, where's the money coming from? Who's gonna pay for it?"
Then she volunteered the idea:
"Theresa May. She's doing alright. She's OK. She's the only one I like."
I didn't venture a single opinion apart from the usual bland "I don't trust any of them".
(to be honest I wasn't in the mood for a long debate)
If this tiny anecdote has any weight, then Corbyn is heading for a massive defeat, disguised by protest polling. Put it another way: if working class working women in Plymouth despise him, he is fucked.
And Theresa May might have more support (albeit stunted and grudging) than we have imagined.
That is what all the vox pops in the first week of the GE campaign were like, even in traditionally strong labour areas....then people saw mrs weak and wobbly and decided the terrorist sympathiser and his Marxist mate were worth a punt after all.
I think there was a huge swing to Corbyn coz he was seen as a protest, and would never win. A no risk Fuck You.
I am firmly convinced that if presented with the actual possibility of him as PM, voters will shun him, big time.
My prediction is that IF Labour are led by him at the next GE, he will LOSE votes and seats, as compared to last time. And I am happy to take very large bets on that basis.
The other strong impression I got from my Plymouth minicab epiphany was just how much Corbyn is perceived as another posh London politician, no different (i.e. no more or less posh or elitist) than anyone else in Westminster. He's seen as rich and deluded, with no clue how real people live. Like the rest: Labour or Tory
Clearly this is from people outside the Corbynista bubble, but that's where we need to look
Corbyn seemed to go down particularly well in Cornwall though, with Labour almost winning seats like Truro & Falmouth where they usually come third or fourth.
Indeed Labour took Plymouth Sutton and Devenport last year despite @SeanT predicting that Corbyn would be destroyed because of his IRA and Islamist sympathies. I believe the seat is long in Navy tradition.
So I think @SeanT is once again speaking out his arse.
Then you will be up for a bet? The point of the site?
My £100 says that IF Labour are led by Corbyn in the next GE, then they will LOSE votes and seats, compared to the last election.
Deal?
No, not for me. The next election is too far into an uncertain post Brexit future to be determined by whether Jezza retains his followers.
The time to bet is when there's uncertainty. Once it's clear, all the value (usually) goes out of the odds.
MASSIVE ANECDOTE ALE If this tiny anecdote has any weight, then Corbyn is heading for a massive defeat, disguised by protest polling. Put it another way: if working class working women in Plymouth despise him, he is fucked.
And Theresa May might have more support (albeit stunted and grudging) than we have imagined.
We heard lots of that sort of guff a year ago. What happened next?
I have just had a few days on the Wight, with relatives galore, from my Kipper dad, to Corbynite nephews and JRM supporting Uncle.
A fair bit of political talk amongst the other rainy day entertainments. No one made comment on either the anti-semitism row or made any party political points about Salisbury. Sorry to disappoint, but in our political family neither reached the surface.
Sure, I did say this was a ridiculous generalisation from one single encounter. I'm probably wrong.
But sometimes I get it really right (I remember being alone here in predicting the SNP resurgence after a NO indy-vote) and I am sensing a swing against Corbyn,
Part of his problem is simply that he has so long to go, until he has another chance. He's already seen as a bit boring, weird, treacherous and derelict, the idea he will carry any of his Corbynista "enthusiasm" to 2022 is borderline nuts.
Don't under estimate the cult. A lot of people seem to have hung their hopes and dreams on the cult of corbyn, regardless of the truth eg that polling showing leavers thinking he was for leave and remainers thinking he was for remain.
I was criticised last week for suggesting that the cult might get bored but I stick to that (or, more accurately, quite a few could well get bored). Signing up for an exciting election campaign where you can make history is one thing; four full years of lengthy and fractious meetings and Corbyn still in opposition, against a steady drip-drip of ill-judged actions, isn't something to inspire the new recruits who don't understand the rhythms of politics.
Comments
The biggest crime in the scrapping of the Nimrod MRA4 was that it wasn't done immediately after the XV230 accident in Afghanistan in 2006. The MoD let a project that everyone involved knew was doomed stumble on for another four years.