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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,299

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".
    Or even anti-Jew racism which is what I note OGH uses.
    While Judophobia, more flowing imo than Judeophobia, would likely be misinterpreted
    Why not drop the strict classical linguistic inheritance and go with Jewphobic?
    There is a slight pejorative element to the word Jew, I believe.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    edited April 2018
    Given what happened to Theresa's favourability lead from 20th April to 11th June I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen in future.

    It is possible we've passed "Peak Corbyn" and he'll never get back to where he was in Summer 2017 but it's equally possible Theresa (or any other Con leader) might see another collapse in favour of him in any subsequent election campaign.

    Looking at Mike's graph the one thing we can say is the Tories will be taking a HUGE risk if they dare go into another general election with Theresa leading them.

    I don't think Con can risk it.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    I remain happy with my 28-1 on Emily Thornberry,now 5-1 fav in next Lab leader market as a long-term hold.TSE's tip of Diane Abbott is 100-1 remains good value.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,713

    FF43 said:

    The other point she makes about the effect of leaving the EU on her business, apart from the direct costs of the additional red tape, is that there is no substitute for the European Union as a market. On its own the United Kingdom is too small a market; other developed countries (Australia etc) too fragmented; developing countries (China etc) too unreliable and difficult to deal with. Whereas the European Union market is coherent and easy to deal with.

    That was an interesting blog, and it's certainly true that for the business model of that company as it is currently organised, Brexit is a disaster. Having said that, there can't be many small companies so dependent on relatively low-value direct sales to the EU, so you can't extrapolate from this particular case to a wider conclusion on the impact of Brexit on 'business'. (Of course that's no consolation to this particular company).

    However, Sean Fear is right that the business owners seem to be throwing the towel prematurely. They've already had nearly two years to think about how they might adapt, and seem to have done no thinking at all. No matter - they still have a full three years to plan for how they might adapt, the obvious answer being to sell through distributors or dealers rather than directly. Of course that means giving up a large chunk of gross margin, but against that they'd save a bunch on admin costs and transport. There's no sign in that blog that they're doing any planning or investigation of options like that.
    The wider points, I think, are firstly that Brexit has no upside. Everything is about avoiding or mitigating the many downsides, as far as you can or are willing to do. I would say car manufacturers, for example, are facing broadly similar issues. They may well decide it's easier in the long run to keep their manufacturing in the EU, despite the dislocation costs.

    Secondly, dealing with adversity is normal in business. You look for ways to keep the flag flying. Brexit is yet another anti-business policy. You deal with it. Unfortunately for the staff and the locality the obvious way of dealing with it for this particular firm is to move with the market and shift operations to stay in the EU.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,670

    Five-hundred patients showed symptoms of chemical attack in Syria's Eastern Ghouta - World Health Organization

    https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/984003184011218944

    More Fake news....

    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/984003130185650177
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Five-hundred patients showed symptoms of chemical attack in Syria's Eastern Ghouta - World Health Organization

    twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/984003184011218944

    More Fake news....

    twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/984003130185650177
    ....Blame on both sides....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:

    Apparently all this antisemitism stuff is just dirty tricks...the cult just won't accept that there is a problem.
    I wonder if Jewish groups are going to stand candidates for election against some of the worst offenders - either on their own in safe seats, or with other parties in more marginal areas?
    Hmm - wouldn't it simply split the opposition and let the Maomentum candidate have an easier ride ?
    You could only really do it in safe seats as an independent. In marginal areas you’d need to get a Jewish candidate from the closest rival party to stand.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    GIN1138 said:

    Given what happened to Theresa's favourability lead from 20th April to 11th June I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen in future.

    ...

    Looking at Mike's graph the one thing we can say is the Tories will taking a HUGE risk if they dare go into another general election with Theresa leading them.

    I don't think Con can risk it.

    that looks suspiciously like a prediction?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".
    Or even anti-Jew racism which is what I note OGH uses.
    While Judophobia, more flowing imo than Judeophobia, would likely be misinterpreted
    Why not drop the strict classical linguistic inheritance and go with Jewphobic?
    There is a slight pejorative element to the word Jew, I believe.
    Accepting that is itself embedding antisemitism.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".
    What’s wrong with just calling it racism?
    Being able to define what you are talking about with more rather than less accuracy is usually helpful. In this instance, calling Labour "racist" gives them the option of saying yebbut look how unracist we are about {list of every race except Jewish}.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    edited April 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    Given what happened to Theresa's favourability lead from 20th April to 11th June I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen in future.

    ...

    Looking at Mike's graph the one thing we can say is the Tories will taking a HUGE risk if they dare go into another general election with Theresa leading them.

    I don't think Con can risk it.

    that looks suspiciously like a prediction?
    LOL! Well kind of but not really.

    I'm not saying Theresa WILL experience another another collapse like she did in Election 2017 if she goes up against Jezza at the next election... But given what happened last Summer it looks bloody risky doesn't it? ;)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2018
    Loach went on to claim that anti-Semitism among Labour voters had decreased since Corbyn became leader, “dropping from 22% to 14%”. And he told Labour members to watch the controversial Al-Jazeera series “The Lobby“, which exploited the Holocaust and defended Jackie Walker as a victim of an Israeli government backed conspiracy. Loach said:

    “It explains the role of the Israeli government in infiltrating and undermining the Labour left.”

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/11/ken-loach-deselect-30-mps-attended-anti-semitism-protest/

    It was the Jews / Israelis again....they really are very busy aren't they. Is there nothing they aren't responsible / involved in?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,299

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".
    Or even anti-Jew racism which is what I note OGH uses.
    While Judophobia, more flowing imo than Judeophobia, would likely be misinterpreted
    Why not drop the strict classical linguistic inheritance and go with Jewphobic?
    There is a slight pejorative element to the word Jew, I believe.
    Accepting that is itself embedding antisemitism.
    Maybe. But it doesn't alter its usage as it currently stands.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
    That's approaching tempting I think.

    Meanwhile JRM is still at 5.7/5.8...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,299
    edited April 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
    That's approaching tempting I think.

    Meanwhile JRM is still at 5.7/5.8...

    I was at a fancy pants super-posho do last night and the vitriol displayed towards JRM was surprising (or perhaps not).
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    Loach went on to claim that anti-Semitism among Labour voters had decreased since Corbyn became leader, “dropping from 22% to 14%”. And he told Labour members to watch the controversial Al-Jazeera series “The Lobby“, which exploited the Holocaust and defended Jackie Walker as a victim of an Israeli government backed conspiracy. Loach said:

    “It explains the role of the Israeli government in infiltrating and undermining the Labour left.”

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/11/ken-loach-deselect-30-mps-attended-anti-semitism-protest/

    It was the Jews / Israelis again....they really are very busy aren't they. Is there nothing they aren't responsible / involved in?
    So, over to the 30 he believes should be thrown out. What are they going to do?

    Labour, 2018. It is beyond belief that only ten years ago this was the party of Blair and Brown.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,121

    Pulpstar said:



    "Now's not the time"
    "Too close to an election"
    "Not before brexit"
    "We can't depose the lady who delivered Brexit"
    "We have a lead over Labour, we can't risk upsetting the apple cart now"
    "We're behind Labour, she's got us into this mess she'll get us out".
    "We're too far behind, we can't change leader now"
    "Brexit is going wrong, noone wants to take over now its a poisoned chalice"
    "We're 5-10 points ahead, why rock the boat"

    Because we were 25% ahead at the last election then she soiled the bed.
    The last election demonstrated that supposedly uber-smart political movers and shakers surrounding Mrs. May actually had the political acumen of the slugs in my garden.....

    Where were the people in the Tory campaign standing up and shouting at the top of their lungs "You want to do the fuck WHAT?????" That incredulity should have covered:

    a) holding the election at all
    b) holding the election separate from the locals
    c) the content of the manifesto
    d) the debates
    e) the election materials
    f) a whole load of stuff I've probably forgotten but spiked my blood pressure forty points at the time.
    I'm only part way through Tim Shipman's "Fall Out" but it's clear that there were people shouting those things but that May was being hermetically sealed from them by Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill - who sealed May from anything they didn't agree with.

    On your points:

    a) the election was the right call - a small majority left too many hostages to fortune and 2016-7 presented the best opportunity a PM could hope for.

    b) I don't think this much mattered either way. The Tory campaign was brought down by the manifesto; if anything, the local elections (which were outstanding for the Tories) boosted morale. Had she not screwed everything up shortly after, the reality of the poll leads at the time would have caused serious worries and possibly infighting in other parties.

    c) Yes - the manifesto was barely disclosed to anyone. Idiots. Why hire the best political consultants in the world and then not use them?

    d) Agreed. You can't be strong and stable and then hide from scrutiny.

    e) Not sure what you mean there, but i suspect it's largely duplicating other points?

    f) Again, down to the excessive control in the centre meaning that (1) information wasn't properly disclosed and discussed among the Tory team (indeed, there wasn't much 'team'), and (2) there was no 'grid' to try to control the media agenda, leaving the door open to Labour.
    David, on e) - in 2015 the leaflets were quality in both content and printing. In 2017, they were shoddy in both respects. There is nothing worse than pushing something akin to tissue paper through letterboxes....
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The Corbyn leadership is built upon the 3 pillars of an ethical foreign policy based on human rights,an end to austerity,which is a political choice and not an economic necessity,and the democratisation of politics.These pillars remain strong and Mr Corbyn has already shown guile and resilience in resisting the Chicken Coup of his neo-liberal militarists of his own side.
    Whether you call it a love-bubble or a ring of steel that protects him,the bullets just bounce off this Jedi master.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I think efforts to make Corbyn look like a Nazi are doomed to fail
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,997
    rkrkrk said:

    David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
    That's approaching tempting I think.

    He could be 590/1 and I wouldn't be tempted. Brexit has made him go full 'Flowers for Algernon'.

    My mother says JRM is 'a good turn but he's on too long'.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".
    What’s wrong with just calling it racism?
    Being able to define what you are talking about with more rather than less accuracy is usually helpful. In this instance, calling Labour "racist" gives them the option of saying yebbut look how unracist we are about {list of every race except Jewish}.
    On the other hand, it’s clear that a lot of people within Labour don’t see antisemitism as a problem that needs addressing. By calling it out as racism, just as if it were against blacks or Asians, it might lead to a better understanding of the problem.

    Oh, and add Ken Loach to the list of people to need to be expelled from the Party, such comments need to be jumped on hard if the antisemitism problem is to be addressed.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Another London stabbing...9am at Stratford International station in East London, next to Westfield shopping centre.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Why are antisemites the only racists without a phobia?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2018

    The Corbyn leadership is built upon the 3 pillars of an ethical foreign policy based on human rights,an end to austerity,which is a political choice and not an economic necessity,and the democratisation of politics.

    It's based on an ostrich foreign policy, selective rights for pressure groups, an end to the economy and the destruction of dissenters.



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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,713
    Ishmael_Z said:

    That was an interesting blog, and it's certainly true that for the business model of that company as it is currently organised, Brexit is a disaster. Having said that, there can't be many small companies so dependent on relatively low-value direct sales to the EU, so you can't extrapolate from this particular case to a wider conclusion on the impact of Brexit on 'business'. (Of course that's no consolation to this particular company).

    However, Sean Fear is right that the business owners seem to be throwing the towel prematurely. They've already had nearly two years to think about how they might adapt, and seem to have done no thinking at all. No matter - they still have a full three years to plan for how they might adapt, the obvious answer being to sell through distributors or dealers rather than directly. Of course that means giving up a large chunk of gross margin, but against that they'd save a bunch on admin costs and transport. There's no sign in that blog that they're doing any planning or investigation of options like that.

    The numbers for the business look all wrong; turnover of £800k is a very small business, and 10 employees plus 2 working owners (if I understand correctly) is a lot to be making a living off that turnover. If the concept is as well proven as it seems to be they should have expanded to the stage where they can afford to automate their systems, I would have thought. They also have time to reinvent themselves as sellers to the UK market only, in the expectation brexit will bugger up their competitors' UK sales as much as their EU ones.
    There are a lot of these "just about surviving" companies around. I used to part own one. You get through the storm by squeezing costs to the bone but you never know whether the next one will carry you away. There's a thought that these aren't useful companies anyway. If you don't have the scale and the profitability you deserve to swept in a Darwinian purge of the unfittest. But I don't think it works that way. The startup world is like this. You and I cannot actually set up another Google. The system picks the winners before anyone makes an investment and you and I are not in that system. What we can do is to create a company that we can hope to be a nice lifestyle earner. Apart from those that crash and burn there's a wide range of lifestyles that can be supported. The company in the blog is a manufacturing one in a sector where the UK is seen to be behind. If we want to see new manufacturing in the UK we need to encourage rather than decimate startups. Brexit is just bad.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    I think efforts to make Corbyn look like a Nazi are doomed to fail

    Give him time. He's doing his absolute best on the matter. It's too early to say if he's failed or not.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".
    What’s wrong with just calling it racism?
    Being able to define what you are talking about with more rather than less accuracy is usually helpful. In this instance, calling Labour "racist" gives them the option of saying yebbut look how unracist we are about {list of every race except Jewish}.
    On the other hand, it’s clear that a lot of people within Labour don’t see antisemitism as a problem that needs addressing. By calling it out as racism, just as if it were against blacks or Asians, it might lead to a better understanding of the problem.

    Oh, and add Ken Loach to the list of people to need to be expelled from the Party, such comments need to be jumped on hard if the antisemitism problem is to be addressed.
    Loach has only just joined after years fighting for another party iirc.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,718
    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2018

    I think efforts to make Corbyn look like a Nazi are doomed to fail

    True, he's more like a P G Wodehouse without the writing ability.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    Loach went on to claim that anti-Semitism among Labour voters had decreased since Corbyn became leader, “dropping from 22% to 14%”. And he told Labour members to watch the controversial Al-Jazeera series “The Lobby“, which exploited the Holocaust and defended Jackie Walker as a victim of an Israeli government backed conspiracy. Loach said:

    “It explains the role of the Israeli government in infiltrating and undermining the Labour left.”

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/11/ken-loach-deselect-30-mps-attended-anti-semitism-protest/

    It was the Jews / Israelis again....they really are very busy aren't they. Is there nothing they aren't responsible / involved in?
    It's a full time job, secretly running the world from a cabal. But hey, someone's gotta do it.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I think efforts to make Corbyn look like a Nazi are doomed to fail

    Well yes, he doesn't like armies and uniforms nor dislike the gay, black and disabled enough for a perfect match. But looking like Jeremy Corbyn is almost as bad, in its own way.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
    I thought when I saw the images that Gates was Jean Claude Juncker.

    I assumed either I was seeing things or the poll had been taken exclusively among members of the European Commission. Because there is no other way on God's green earth that Juncker could have topped any poll whatsoever.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304

    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
    David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    edited April 2018

    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
    David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?
    Certainly it doesn't say much for the rest of us! Could have been worse though, could have been Kevin Pietersen.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,713
    rkrkrk said:

    David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
    That's approaching tempting I think.

    Meanwhile JRM is still at 5.7/5.8...

    59/1 seems value. It depends on Theresa May leaving sooner rather than later, I think. MPs would be looking for someone who will implement Brexit but is somewhat sane. Theresa May Mark II, basically.

    The next Tory leader/PM market is a mystery to me, anyway.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,997
    FF43 said:

    MPs would be looking for someone who will implement Brexit but is somewhat sane.

    Those two things are mutually exclusive.

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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
    That's approaching tempting I think.

    Meanwhile JRM is still at 5.7/5.8...

    59/1 seems value. It depends on Theresa May leaving sooner rather than later, I think. MPs would be looking for someone who will implement Brexit but is somewhat sane. Theresa May Mark II, basically.

    The next Tory leader/PM market is a mystery to me, anyway.
    He did say he didn't want it.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
    David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?
    Asia: English Football, Man United etc etc
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    ydoethur said:

    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
    David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?
    Certainly it doesn't say much for the rest of us! Could have been worse though, could have been Kevin Pietersen.
    The Queen is the most admired Brit. They have put the men and women is separate lists.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Why are antisemites the only racists without a phobia?

    I don't know: do they think the Jews stole it from them?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    ydoethur said:

    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
    David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?
    Certainly it doesn't say much for the rest of us! Could have been worse though, could have been Kevin Pietersen.
    The Queen is the most admired Brit. They have put the men and women is separate lists.
    Is Pietersen still a Brit? Thought I read he’d gone back to being a Saffir?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour's average poll rating over the last month has slipped below 40%:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897

    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
    David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?
    Asia: English Football, Man United etc etc
    Yet most Englishmen remember him best for a petulant sending-off in the World Cup against the Argies.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zWsEuczNj48
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited April 2018
    Beaten by Obama, Xi, Putin and Pope Francis, the Queen, Oprah and Hillary
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304

    ydoethur said:

    And Putin beats the Dalai Lama
    David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?
    Certainly it doesn't say much for the rest of us! Could have been worse though, could have been Kevin Pietersen.
    The Queen is the most admired Brit. They have put the men and women is separate lists.
    Ah okay. Some of my faith in humanity has been restored.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Given what happened to Theresa's favourability lead from 20th April to 11th June I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen in future.

    ...

    Looking at Mike's graph the one thing we can say is the Tories will taking a HUGE risk if they dare go into another general election with Theresa leading them.

    I don't think Con can risk it.

    that looks suspiciously like a prediction?
    LOL! Well kind of but not really.

    I'm not saying Theresa WILL experience another another collapse like she did in Election 2017 if she goes up against Jezza at the next election... But given what happened last Summer it looks bloody risky doesn't it? ;)
    Yet it was not a Theresa collapse, she still got 42% after all, so much as Corbyn uniting the left-wing and protest vote behind him
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,670
    Jess Philips....not taking any prisoners.......

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/984020051677327361
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,928
    AndyJS said:

    Labour's average poll rating over the last month has slipped below 40%:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018

    The Tories seem to have sured up their GE2017 voters to my mind. If they can get 13,636,684 voters out again or thereabouts it may well lead to a majority.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    Jess Philips....not taking any prisoners.......

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/984020051677327361

    I think she's suggesting such matters are Beyond our Ken?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,299

    Jess Philips....not taking any prisoners.......

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/984020051677327361

    Very funny tweet from her about people called Ken also. What is it with Kens and the left??
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited April 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour's average poll rating over the last month has slipped below 40%:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018

    The Tories seem to have sured up their GE2017 voters to my mind. If they can get 13,636,684 voters out again or thereabouts it may well lead to a majority.
    Indeed, the Tories need a swing of just 0.22% from Labour next time for an overall majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,928
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520

    Grabs popcorn.

    Trident will keep us safe though won't it :) ?
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    The Yougov research on most admired people has a filter where you can look at the results by country. The 10 most admired men and women in the UK are:

    David Attenborough 16.60% Queen Elizabeth II 19.60%
    Barack Obama 12.30% Michelle Obama 10.30%
    Stephen Hawking 9.20% Judi Dench 7.10%
    Prince Harry 5.30% J K Rowling 6.40%
    Jeremy Corbyn 4.90% Malala Yousafzai 5.70%
    Bill Gates 4.60% Joanna Lumley 5.50%
    Prince William 4.20% Angela Merkel 3.60%
    Dalai Lama 4.10% Oprah Winfrey 3.30%
    Prince Philip 3.10% Kate Middleton 3.20%
    Jacob Rees Mogg 3.00% Nicola Sturgeon 2.50%

    Theresa May is 11th most admired woman. Trump is actually 2nd most admired man in the US but obviously not loved much elsewhere.

    There was some talk about Bojo the other day. He is less admired than both Trump and Farage in the UK.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Russia was the only country in the world where Trump was more admired than Obama, not for long it seems

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/04/11/worlds-most-admired-2018/
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    My tip for Ed Balls as next Labour leader might not be a bad one then.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    Lots of us Labour loyalists like aspects of both.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,121
    Gas Killing Animal? Just wondering - what sort of animal can "kill gas"? Does it cool it into a liquid?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    That seems ridiculously high to me for Obama.

    But, perhaps we shouldn’t take any list too seriously that places Putin above the Dalai Lama.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520

    Grabs popcorn.

    Trident will keep us safe though won't it :) ?

    This is the closest the USA and Russia have come to attacking each other since the Cuban Missile Crisis. :open_mouth:
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232

    Gas Killing Animal? Just wondering - what sort of animal can "kill gas"? Does it cool it into a liquid?
    I think what the stupid old fool esteemed President and Leader of the Free World was trying to say was that Assad is an animal who kills using gas.

    It may however have just been a brainfart and he was really talking about a theory that some new species has evolved out there.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332

    Pulpstar said:



    "Now's not the time"
    "Too close to an election"
    "Not before brexit"
    "We can't depose the lady who delivered Brexit"
    "We have a lead over Labour, we can't risk upsetting the apple cart now"
    "We're behind Labour, she's got us into this mess she'll get us out".
    "We're too far behind, we can't change leader now"
    "Brexit is going wrong, noone wants to take over now its a poisoned chalice"
    "We're 5-10 points ahead, why rock the boat"

    Because we were 25% ahead at the last election then she soiled the bed.
    The last election demonstrated that supposedly uber-smart political movers and shakers surrounding Mrs. May actually had the political acumen of the slugs in my garden.....

    Where were the people in the Tory campaign standing up and shouting at the top of their lungs "You want to do the fuck WHAT?????" That incredulity should have covered:

    a) holding the election at all
    b) holding the election separate from the locals
    c) the content of the manifesto
    d) the debates
    e) the election materials
    f) a whole load of stuff I've probably forgotten but spiked my blood pressure forty points at the time.
    I'm only part way through Tim Shipman's "Fall Out" but it's clear that there were people shouting those things but that May was being hermetically sealed from them by Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill - who sealed May from anything they didn't agree with.

    On your points:

    a) the election was the right call - a small majority left too many hostages to fortune and 2016-7 presented the best opportunity a PM could hope for.

    b) I don't think this much mattered either way. The Tory campaign was brought down by the manifesto; if anything, the local elections (which were outstanding for the Tories) boosted morale. Had she not screwed everything up shortly after, the reality of the poll leads at the time would have caused serious worries and possibly infighting in other parties.

    c) Yes - the manifesto was barely disclosed to anyone. Idiots. Why hire the best political consultants in the world and then not use them?

    d) Agreed. You can't be strong and stable and then hide from scrutiny.

    e) Not sure what you mean there, but i suspect it's largely duplicating other points?

    f) Again, down to the excessive control in the centre meaning that (1) information wasn't properly disclosed and discussed among the Tory team (indeed, there wasn't much 'team'), and (2) there was no 'grid' to try to control the media agenda, leaving the door open to Labour.
    I think the broader point is that Timothy/Hill felt the stratospheric poll leads that May had up until May 2017 vindicated their style and behaviour.

    Once they’d fallen victim to the inevitable hubris, it was too late.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,153

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    edited April 2018
    10% in 72 hours, that’s around the same as the pound dropped after the Brexit vote,

    Gas demand also down as Europe warms up for the summer, could be a serious crunch time for Putin and Russia - and a great illustration of why Northern Europe needs to get fracking yesterday.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,713
    edited April 2018

    That seems ridiculously high to me for Obama.

    But, perhaps we shouldn’t take any list too seriously that places Putin above the Dalai Lama.
    The Queen, the Obamas, the Pope, the Dalai Lama, the Gates, Angelina Jolie, Oprah, Madonna are the clear A-listers I think. The Queen and Jolie are appearing together in a nature film, apparently. I would have expected the Pope to rank higher.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
    Far right , Stalin far left .What is your point ?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,153
    Yorkcity said:

    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
    Far right , Stalin far left .What is your point ?
    This kind of labelling is always unhelpful and often misleading.
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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Sandpit,

    At the local rugby club, they ran out of LPG for a week and a half. Cold showers for the players. Wouldn't have happened if we'd started fracking. Greenies never burn so well.

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
    Hitler was far right. The reason for the 'Socialist' part of the name is that the party's founder, Anton Drexler, was far left.

    However, it is also worth remembering that Mussolini did start on the left, although he moved right as a result of the Socialist opposition to Italian involvement in the First World War.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    geoffw said:

    Yorkcity said:

    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
    Far right , Stalin far left .What is your point ?
    This kind of labelling is always unhelpful and often misleading.
    Hardly misleading between 1933 and 45.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Post on the PPRUNE aviation forum:

    https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/607655-heavy-casualties-reported-algerian-il78-crash.html

    " Il-76 payload = 17,500Kg. 300 pax + bags = 30,000kgs.
    Plane crashed just after take-off.
    Oops."
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,121
    Sandpit said:

    10% in 72 hours, that’s around the same as the pound dropped after the Brexit vote,

    Gas demand also down as Europe warms up for the summer, could be a serious crunch time for Putin and Russia - and a great illustration of why Northern Europe needs to get fracking yesterday.
    Russian Billionaires turning into Russian Millionaires. The great Tragedy of Our Times.....
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    It was reported (or claimed) that in the recent Israeli strike on Syria, five of the eight missiles fired were shot down by the presumably Russian-supplied Syrian defences. I couldn't say whether that is good, bad or indifferent (or even true).
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    Sandpit said:

    10% in 72 hours, that’s around the same as the pound dropped after the Brexit vote,

    Gas demand also down as Europe warms up for the summer, could be a serious crunch time for Putin and Russia - and a great illustration of why Northern Europe needs to get fracking yesterday.
    Just as well I haven't ordered my holiday Forex yet :)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,288

    I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?

    This is a betting site. The best you'll get are odds.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    Does anyone else think these increasingly bizarre tweets are beginning to resemble Chapman's extraordinary nervous breakdown?

    While the soft pedalling would be welcomed in isolation, it just looks like unhinged flailing in the context.

    Could we see a sudden shortening of odds on Mike Pence becoming Acting President?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    That seems ridiculously high to me for Obama.

    But, perhaps we shouldn’t take any list too seriously that places Putin above the Dalai Lama.
    Putin is quite popular in Russia obviously, parts of southern Europe and I expect Iran etc and is also the type of strongman Africans like
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
    Obviously far-right. They did little to alter the existing class or economic structures but were obsessed by notions of nationality, power, strength, racial purity and so on.

    The fact that totalitarian states of far-left or far-right share some common features shouldn't obscure the fact that they don't share all features in common.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Trump's "baws oot" approach is working with North Korea so far - who's to say this wont work in Syria ?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,153
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
    Hitler was far right. The reason for the 'Socialist' part of the name is that the party's founder, Anton Drexler, was far left.

    However, it is also worth remembering that Mussolini did start on the left, although he moved right as a result of the Socialist opposition to Italian involvement in the First World War.
    Horseshoes. Are capitalists fascists?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited April 2018
    FF43 said:

    That seems ridiculously high to me for Obama.

    But, perhaps we shouldn’t take any list too seriously that places Putin above the Dalai Lama.
    The Queen, the Obamas, the Pope, the Dalai Lama, the Gates, Angelina Jolie, Oprah, Madonna are the clear A-listers I think. The Queen and Jolie are appearing together in a nature film, apparently. I would have expected the Pope to rank higher.

    The Dalai Lama as the 1st places religious leader followed by the Pope is not that surprising especially given the scandals the Catholic Church has had
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,232
    DavidL said:

    I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?

    This is a betting site. The best you'll get are odds.
    I am willing to bet up to £50 million that World War III will not break out in two weeks.

    If anyone wishes to take me up they will have to show they have £50 million to lose first.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?

    Yes. Happy to reassure you.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?

    Yes. Happy to reassure you.
    That's Pascal's wager if ever I saw it.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
    Hitler was far right. The reason for the 'Socialist' part of the name is that the party's founder, Anton Drexler, was far left.

    However, it is also worth remembering that Mussolini did start on the left, although he moved right as a result of the Socialist opposition to Italian involvement in the First World War.
    Horseshoes. Are capitalists fascists?
    Right wing and capitalist aren't synonymous. For example, capitalism is very let wing compared to feudalism.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,182
    geoffw said:

    Cyclefree said:



    The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.

    On History GCSEs: shocking.

    In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.
    Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?
    Totalitarian theorists like Hannah Arendt had the left and right extremes of politics almost meeting in a circular shape.

    So if one is of a particular religious or racial group, if doesn't really differ much if one is being persecuted by Adolf Hitler or Josef Stalin. One is still being persecuted.
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    A good point was made earlier that given this crisis the Prime Minister should be able to have a frank conversation with the leader of the opposition to agree action but that is simply impossible with Corbyn

    He is pro Russia, Iran and Hamas and anti the US, the West, NATO, Israel and Saudia all of whom are involved in possible military action.

    Do we really think Corbyn is the answer
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited April 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Does anyone else think these increasingly bizarre tweets are beginning to resemble Chapman's extraordinary nervous breakdown?

    While the soft pedalling would be welcomed in isolation, it just looks like unhinged flailing in the context.

    Could we see a sudden shortening of odds on Mike Pence becoming Acting President?
    Trump is actually making a shift which could appeal to swing voters, a majority of Americans supported the last strike on Assad after he killed civilians
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,288
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?

    This is a betting site. The best you'll get are odds.
    I am willing to bet up to £50 million that World War III will not break out in two weeks.

    If anyone wishes to take me up they will have to show they have £50 million to lose first.
    Do you? I mean, I know teachers have a pretty generous pension scheme but that is a lot of money.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?

    No ground troops of any scale will be going in.I can assure you of that.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,997

    I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?

    Yeah, it won't happen. It's in no-one's interests.

    The US does not want to conquer Russia, and Russia does not want to conquer the US. The overall cause of this current situation is Russia wanting to exercise influence and control over the 'independent' states that surround it in rather an uncivilised manner.

    I have a smidgen of sympathy with the Russian position given their history, but only a smidgen. And they might do better by trying honest means rather than their current ones. Yet that's all Putin knows.

    Putin also has a certain amount of butthurt over 'losing' the Cold War, and wants Russia to be seen as a world power rather than the backwards pariah state he's turning it into. But again, poisoning people abroad is not necessarily the best way to be seen as a power.

    A nuclear war would do nothing to further the cause of either side.
This discussion has been closed.