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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay

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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Now Mrs May has a lead both in terms of favourability and voting intention over Corbyn what is the need to replace her?

    If we could have an 84 point turnaround in five months last year it can happen again.

    That's your reason.
    Except we didn't.
    You're right. My mistake.

    It was in four months.

    Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.

    Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
    The fact she was overconfident and aimed for a landslide and winning seats even Thatcher never won was unrealistic, however she did still win over 60 more seats than Corbyn and keeping them will be less difficult than winning Bolsover.

    Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
    She won Mansfield and Copeland. A real landslide wasn't quite as far out as you are suggesting.

    She also lost Kensington and Canterbury - even Balfour held Canterbury although (buffs nails) one rather brilliant poster here suggested it might be vulnerable to Labour given its profile.

    That is not the sign of a successful strategy.
    Mansfield had a 2015 majority of 5,000, Bolsover of 11,000.

    Canterbury was lost because of tuition fees levels and interest rates compared to Corbyn's promise to scrap them which was more Osborne's fault than May's, the Tories won Mansfield and Copeland because of Brexit but lost Kensington because of Brexit
    I can't see Canterbury or Kensington coming back next time, because the voting coalitions and demographics are changing.

    I think May could have won 340-350 seats with a good campaign on 43-44% of the vote. I don't believe, in hindsight of course, her chances were much higher than that.

    There are a number of seats in the midlands and north she should have been able to win, and a few others, like Portsmouth South, Stockton South and High Peak, that she shouldn't have really lost.
    8 out of 10 of the top Tory target seats voted Leave and if the Tories won them all they would have an overall majority
    You're assuming voting leave makes people more disposed to vote Conservative. Hastings? Eastbourne? Both had really chunky leave votes and both saw the Tory vote falling.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,426
    edited April 2018

    Liverpool and Guardiola charged by UEFA .....

    Surely time for Spurs to be re-instated as the English club playing in the Semis?

    Seems reasonable to me

    I've not seen anything today from the wing-nut in chief but my recent bets on Jezza going this year aren't looking nailed on just yet..... [not mentioned them here before as in the same draw as Tracey Crouch for next Tory leader]

    Spurs are the bed blockers of the Champions League.

    You couldn’t get out of the group stages last season and got knocked out in the last 16 this season.

    You are the new Arsenal.
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    What an absolute tosser.

    Zuck is now banned from PB.
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    As an ex "man in a white coat",I feel my skills have never been more needed in the case of the current POTUS because the world needs the men in white coats right now to take this highly dangerous sociopath to the local asylum,where 1960s style he would first have a compulsory enema-high,hot and hellavalot-all newly admitted patients had to have one-,followed by hosing down in the sluice.He would there be accompanied to small room where he would have an intra-muscular injection of the finest medication of the times,Paraldehyde-had to be used with metal syringes because it melted the plastic ones and then maintain in seclusion for 3 months assessment.I can still smell it.
    To remain in seclusion for 3 months assessment.Pre-83, for as long as it takes.

    No mention of Syria gassing it's own children or Russia backing a malign state. Trump is a concern but so is Putin and his useful idiots in Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne and Williamson.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    Parliament's Select Committees could teach the Congress a bit about interviewing witnesses....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,059

    Parliament's Select Committees could teach the Congress a bit about interviewing witnesses....

    My favourite moment was when one of them talked through her whole four minutes and cut off his answer by saying "I can't let you filibuster".
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Has for decades, mate. Don't trust any of them.....
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited April 2018
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:


    Increased military expenditure?

    Hardly a right wing policy. The Russians aren't renowned for being light on military spending. Nor were any of the other Eastern bloc countries, or China.
    A very sound point. It's hard to make a case that increased public spending is 'rightwing'. I suppose a true rightwing approach to military and policing would be several private forces competing with one another, or so it could be argued.
    Defence is one area where I feel I'm to the left on, though under your definition I'd be right - though so would Corbyn... which doesn't feel right (sort of)
    I think you’d both be liberal rather than authoritarian (as would I) which is arguably a different axis. If if weren’t, the Soviet Union would have been classed as rightwing, given its high defence budget as a proportion of GDP.
    Political views are often plotted on a graph with left/right as the X axis and authoritarian/liberal on the Y axis.

    You can have authoritarian left and right parties and more liberal left and right parties.

    The Liberal Party has been a mixture of left and right leaning people but all liberal leaning. Today's LibDems are perhaps more authoritarian leaning than in the past with the influence of the Social Democrats and state intervention.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    New thread...
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Anazina said:


    Increased military expenditure?

    Hardly a right wing policy. The Russians aren't renowned for being light on military spending. Nor were any of the other Eastern bloc countries, or China.
    A very sound point. It's hard to make a case that increased public spending is 'rightwing'. I suppose a true rightwing approach to military and policing would be several private forces competing with one another, or so it could be argued.
    Doesn't the Army compete with the Navy and the Air Force?
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