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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The must win the for LAB on May 3rd – Barnet with its sizeable

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited April 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The must win the for LAB on May 3rd – Barnet with its sizeable Jewish communities

A long-standing PBer with great knowledge of London local elections has emailed me to suggest that the 11/4 on a CON majority on Barnet Council in next month’s local is a “good value bet”.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867
    First :smiley:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617
    Under the circumstances I would agree.

    If Corbyn takes Barnet with all this happening we have to assume he is favourite for the next election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,067
    Second! Like Corbyn (but maybe not in May...)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 948
    Sean Fear has been suggesting this for a while so more impact if it's another poster. Not sure I'd agree with the headline though; if Labour get gains in Westminster or Wandsworth, and plenty to show across the rest of the country, I can't see Barnet making headlines.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    Given all 3 Barnet seats stayed Tory last June and the Tories are back in front in most polls and Corbyn has been hit by an anti semitism row, Barnet is not a given for Labour no
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    I hope the blues win. Mr. F mentioned it at 4.8 some while back.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,975
    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,975

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ooops wrong house speaker - apologies!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,596
    Re this bet:

    I am happy with the 4/1 I have, not sure I would take 11/4.

    Labour are just so close to taking control that they require a 0% swing overall - it gets swept up in the nature of UNS.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    That's the previous speaker who's growing drugs, I think?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889
    Barnet is a coin toss. There are 27 seats each that are safe for the Conservatives and Labour.

    That leaves 9 seats in three wards. Hale is 2 Con, 1 Lab. Childs Hill is 2 Con, 1 Lib Dem, with Labour a close third. Brunswick Park is 2 Lab 1 Con. Hale is 19% Jewish, Childs Hill 17% Jewish, Brunswick Park only 5% Jewish. I expect that Jews will be fired up to vote, so the proportion among the voters in the first two wards will probably exceed 20%.

    Odds of 11-4 on a coin toss are very generous.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    One wonders how many thousands of reasons changed his mind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889

    Re this bet:

    I am happy with the 4/1 I have, not sure I would take 11/4.

    Labour are just so close to taking control that they require a 0% swing overall - it gets swept up in the nature of UNS.

    There was no swing in Barnet between 2014 and 2017, whereas London as a whole swung by 5.5% towards Labour.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,596
    Sean_F said:

    Re this bet:

    I am happy with the 4/1 I have, not sure I would take 11/4.

    Labour are just so close to taking control that they require a 0% swing overall - it gets swept up in the nature of UNS.

    There was no swing in Barnet between 2014 and 2017, whereas London as a whole swung by 5.5% towards Labour.
    Obviously I hope you are right Sean. (Do you mean 2015?)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    On topic I don't see why Barnet is a must win for Labour. They really ought to win it under normal circumstances but have an anti-Jewish racist in charge of the party is likely to be a draw back there. No doubt they will pick up enough seats in other parts of the capital which are not so bothered to compensate.

    What is more interesting is what will happen across England as a whole. If current polling is true (big if of course) and there is no great differential on motivation there may well be a modest swing from Labour to the Tories. I can see a scenario where Labour has net gains in the capital but these are offset to some degree by losses elsewhere with the Tories doing the reverse. In short I think May will prove to be a bit of a draw which from the government perspective would not be a bad result at all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,984
    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889

    Sean_F said:

    Re this bet:

    I am happy with the 4/1 I have, not sure I would take 11/4.

    Labour are just so close to taking control that they require a 0% swing overall - it gets swept up in the nature of UNS.

    There was no swing in Barnet between 2014 and 2017, whereas London as a whole swung by 5.5% towards Labour.
    Obviously I hope you are right Sean. (Do you mean 2015?)
    No,, 2017. In the 2014 local elections, the Conservatives won 38% in Barnet, compared to 36% for Labour. In 2017, the respective scores were 47% and 45%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    edited April 11
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
    Pelosi has won before in 2006 and 2008, looks like she will be Speaker again come next January.

    Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,681
    I have no idea on the bet but forget any anti-semitism strategy if Labour storm it and God help Jews.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,148
    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
    Pelosi has won before in 2006 and 2008, looks like she will be Speaker again come next January.

    Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
    Yep, its the same generation that took control early and is hanging on late. Pelosi is a classic Californian liberal. She appeals strongly to that base but totally turns off too much of the country. It really is time the Dems moved on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    Sean_F said:

    Barnet is a coin toss. There are 27 seats each that are safe for the Conservatives and Labour.

    That leaves 9 seats in three wards. Hale is 2 Con, 1 Lab. Childs Hill is 2 Con, 1 Lib Dem, with Labour a close third. Brunswick Park is 2 Lab 1 Con. Hale is 19% Jewish, Childs Hill 17% Jewish, Brunswick Park only 5% Jewish. I expect that Jews will be fired up to vote, so the proportion among the voters in the first two wards will probably exceed 20%.

    Odds of 11-4 on a coin toss are very generous.

    Childs Hill was - literally - just over the road from my home in Hampstead. And I think one of our regulars actually lives in the ward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
    Pelosi has won before in 2006 and 2008, looks like she will be Speaker again come next January.

    Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
    Yep, its the same generation that took control early and is hanging on late. Pelosi is a classic Californian liberal. She appeals strongly to that base but totally turns off too much of the country. It really is time the Dems moved on.
    In Congressional elections voters vote for the party not the leader and after Clinton and Obama she has the 3rd most successful electoral record of any Democratic leader having already led the Democrats to 2 House election victories in 2006 and 2008
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    Sean_F said:

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
    I don't know if you know this, but only the liberal Democrats can beat labour in Childs Hill.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,865

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Yes. I am also not convinced Jews with a propensity to vote Labour will switch en masse. Some will probably stick with Labour, some go to another party, not necessarily the Conservatives and some don't vote at all. The more relevant point is that 2014 was a decent election year for Labour and the further you get from central London the less chance they have of improving their standing, particularly with ex-UKIP voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
    Pelosi has won before in 2006 and 2008, looks like she will be Speaker again come next January.

    Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
    Yep, its the same generation that took control early and is hanging on late. Pelosi is a classic Californian liberal. She appeals strongly to that base but totally turns off too much of the country. It really is time the Dems moved on.
    In Congressional elections voters vote for the party not the leader and after Clinton and Obama she has the 3rd most successful electoral record of any Democratic leader having already led the Democrats to 2 House election victories in 2006 and 2008
    You keep saying the same thing. She is 78 and should retire.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
    I don't know if you know this, but only the liberal Democrats can beat labour in Childs Hill.
    Why? In all likelihood the Conservatives led in the ward in 2017.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,596
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Re this bet:

    I am happy with the 4/1 I have, not sure I would take 11/4.

    Labour are just so close to taking control that they require a 0% swing overall - it gets swept up in the nature of UNS.

    There was no swing in Barnet between 2014 and 2017, whereas London as a whole swung by 5.5% towards Labour.
    Obviously I hope you are right Sean. (Do you mean 2015?)
    No,, 2017. In the 2014 local elections, the Conservatives won 38% in Barnet, compared to 36% for Labour. In 2017, the respective scores were 47% and 45%.

    Comparing local with GE?
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 282
    Did a video chat about this the other day, if anyone is interested.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
    I don't know if you know this, but only the liberal Democrats can beat labour in Childs Hill.
    Why? In all likelihood the Conservatives led in the ward in 2017.
    I'm just quoting the impartial Focus leaflet.
  • Sean_F said:

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
    Any thoughts on West Hendon, which has been the scene of a controversial large scale estate regeneration project?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
    I don't know if you know this, but only the liberal Democrats can beat labour in Childs Hill.
    Why? In all likelihood the Conservatives led in the ward in 2017.
    I'm just quoting the impartial Focus leaflet.
    It was an incredibly tight contest in 2014. The votes split Con 31%, Lib Dem 30%, Lab 29%, and the Conservatives won 2 seats to one for the Lib Dems. Without their two gains here, the Conservatives would have lost overall control.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,015
    Bit more evidence required please than "a man I met in the pub told me".Has the source made their full canvas returns and postal votes count available so this rumour can be verified?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910
    RobD said:
    Breaking doesn't cut it anymore.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889

    Sean_F said:

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
    Any thoughts on West Hendon, which has been the scene of a controversial large scale estate regeneration project?
    The political balance in West Hendon never seems to shift. Safe Labour, but with a substantial Conservative vote.
  • Bit more evidence required please than "a man I met in the pub told me".Has the source made their full canvas returns and postal votes count available so this rumour can be verified?

    That would be illegal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 19,910

    RobD said:
    Breaking doesn't cut it anymore.
    It turns out to be a bit of a non-story. He's just going back to his old job.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867

    RobD said:
    Breaking doesn't cut it anymore.
    It turns out to be a bit of a non-story. He's just going back to his old job.
    twitter.com/jessebyrnes/status/984104563748802560
    Perhaps it was urgent that people read it because it wouldn't be a story in five minutes? :p
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 26,691
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
    I don't know if you know this, but only the liberal Democrats can beat labour in Childs Hill.
    LibDems - Spinning Here!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750
    edited April 11
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
    Pelosi has won before in 2006 and 2008, looks like she will be Speaker again come next January.

    Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
    Yep, its the same generation that took control early and is hanging on late. Pelosi is a classic Californian liberal. She appeals strongly to that base but totally turns off too much of the country. It really is time the Dems moved on.
    In Congressional elections voters vote for the party not the leader and after Clinton and Obama she has the 3rd most successful electoral record of any Democratic leader having already led the Democrats to 2 House election victories in 2006 and 2008
    You keep saying the same thing. She is 78 and should retire.
    Given POTUS is also over 70 as are Biden and Sanders, the 2 frontrunners for the 2020 Democratic nomination and given the odds are she will be Speaker in November she of course will not
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 4,324

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    This is what I hear from my wholly unrepresentative sample of Jewish friends. Those who are bothered are bothered a lot, but they were never going to vote for Corbyn anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,750

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    This is what I hear from my wholly unrepresentative sample of Jewish friends. Those who are bothered are bothered a lot, but they were never going to vote for Corbyn anyway.
    Yes but Corbyn needs to convert voters in Barnet to win as it is already Tory held
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    Most Jewish voters in Barnet live in wards that are already safe for the Conservatives.

    But, I think they could make a difference in the very tight wards of Hale and Childs Hill. Most will have voted Conservative, in 2014, or for the sole Lib Dem, Cllr. Jack Cohen, who clung on by 9 votes in 2014. Even small shifts in support/turnout could be decisive in those two wards.
    I don't know if you know this, but only the liberal Democrats can beat labour in Childs Hill.
    LibDems - Spinning Here!
    Having been buried a long time ago.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    I hope the Tory GLA members raise this with the Mayor tomorrow. What is wrong with the senior management of the Met?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 347
    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Of course he wants a vote as it allows him to grandstand and further marginalises Corbyn sceptics within the party from the membership - as happened in the 2015 Syria vote. For many of his acolytes it would be the perfect justification for the deselection purge they'd love to carry out but fear doing so will fracture the party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?

    No.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    Well, any area of London doing well for the Tories sounds like it would be remarkable right now, but I guess there's always chances of exceptions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?
    Perhaps.

    But since Parliament has always been able to override the Royal Prerogative on such matters anyway by the simple expedient of sacking the government I'm not sure how much difference it makes in practice.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938
    Late afternoon all :)

    Yes, in such a close race 11/4 looks decent value and 1/4 far too skinny.

    I don't actually think the "sizeable Jewish vote" will make that much difference. Perhaps of more interest, Barnet has the second highest proportion of residents aged 65+ (only Bromley is higher) and if the theories about Corbyn's "appeal" to older voters have any validity, it may be that which saves the Conservatives.

    Looking at the various Wards, I make it LAB 30 CON 27 and two Wards too close to call. One is Childs Hill where the Conservatives have two Councillors and the LDs. The other is Hale which split CON 2 LAB 1 four years ago.

    In Childs Hill all three sitting Councillors are re-standing but although they missed out completely in 2014, Labour were close behind with their three candidates all polling better than the two non-elected LDs and the lead Labour candidate was only 37 behind the non-elected Conservative so this could go any or every way.

    In Hale the Labour winner edged out the non-elected Conservative by just nine votes last time with the second Labour candidates only 16 votes behind the non-elected Conservative so another knife-edge marginal. To confuse matters, none of the sitting Councillors are standing again.

    Will demographic change have been enough to shift Hale fully Labour ? If so, they'll have 33 and it won't matter how Childs Hill turns out.

    I suppose the other possibility is Childs Hill and Hale continue to split and Barnet ends up 31-31-1 which would make the 12/1 NOM a sound bet.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    kle4 said:

    Well, any area of London doing well for the Tories sounds like it would be remarkable right now, but I guess there's always chances of exceptions.

    There are boroughs where the Tories will be miles ahead of other parties. There is more to London than the handful of boroughs journalists live in!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?

    No.

    People seem to expect it now, not just oppositions. It's clearly not an accepted rule yet, but I do wonder about the future.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,938
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, any area of London doing well for the Tories sounds like it would be remarkable right now, but I guess there's always chances of exceptions.

    There are boroughs where the Tories will be miles ahead of other parties. There is more to London than the handful of boroughs journalists live in!
    No one is suggesting the Conservatives will lose Bromley or Bexley and it's entirely possible Havering will be a much better result and there will always be strong Conservative pockets even in Boroughs held by other parties (though not Newham, the last Conservative disappeared in 1994 and no sign of them coming back).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711

    Bit more evidence required please than "a man I met in the pub told me".Has the source made their full canvas returns and postal votes count available so this rumour can be verified?

    One, I believe that's illegal, as TSE noted. Two, as OGH says 'maybe worth a punt?' and 'this is not a prediction'. So he's not exactly overselling what is, indeed, merely rumour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    shadsy said:

    Did a video chat about this the other day, if anyone is interested.

    Cheers
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,819

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?

    No.

    I would disagree although the Crown reserves the right to act in an emergency without the prior approval of Parliament.
    Its probably going to take the US a few more days to get their assets in position anyway.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,576
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?
    Donald Trump said Congress should be consulted before attacking Syria -- though that was when Obama was president.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, any area of London doing well for the Tories sounds like it would be remarkable right now, but I guess there's always chances of exceptions.

    There are boroughs where the Tories will be miles ahead of other parties. There is more to London than the handful of boroughs journalists live in!
    You are right, of course, though I take the Trump approach and claim not to have been literal about 'any area', but 'any formerly competitive area' perhaps?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?
    Perhaps.

    But since Parliament has always been able to override the Royal Prerogative on such matters anyway by the simple expedient of sacking the government I'm not sure how much difference it makes in practice.
    I can think of a world of difference if the government has already acted in a situation but might then be sacked, to voting on things before they act. Once the ram has touched the wall on an action, or escalation, people might be less willing to push back to the point of sacking the government, but in preventative action beforehand.

    I think there have to be situations where the government should always retain the ability to act, that's one reason we have an executive in the first place, but the trend feels towards parliament becoming increasingly necessary, for better and for worse.
  • Didn't the Conservatives do particularly poorly in Barnet in 2014 because of Brian Coleman?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
    Pelosi has won before in 2006 and 2008, looks like she will be Speaker again come next January.

    Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
    Yep, its the same generation that took control early and is hanging on late. Pelosi is a classic Californian liberal. She appeals strongly to that base but totally turns off too much of the country. It really is time the Dems moved on.
    In Congressional elections voters vote for the party not the leader and after Clinton and Obama she has the 3rd most successful electoral record of any Democratic leader having already led the Democrats to 2 House election victories in 2006 and 2008
    You keep saying the same thing. She is 78 and should retire.
    Given POTUS is also over 70 as are Biden and Sanders, the 2 frontrunners for the 2020 Democratic nomination and given the odds are she will be Speaker in November she of course will not
    Top tip: if you want to make money, lay Biden and Sanders.

    Indeed, I'd happily lay the three favourites in the betting - Biden, Sanders and Warren - all day long.
  • chloechloe Posts: 224
    Evening all.

    I live in West Finchley and have had 2 leaflets from Labour already. Nothing from anybody else. Ok it is a Labour ward but with the vote in the borough on a knife edge and the Conservatives already having lost their Majority after the deselection row you’d have thought they would be going out of the way to persuade people to vote Conservative. Makes me think they already think the borough is lost or maybe Labour is worried.

    I worked for Barnet for many years and still have friends who work there. There is the expectation from the staff that Labour will take it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    chloe said:

    Evening all.

    I live in West Finchley and have had 2 leaflets from Labour already. Nothing from anybody else. Ok it is a Labour ward but with the vote in the borough on a knife edge and the Conservatives already having lost their Majority after the deselection row you’d have thought they would be going out of the way to persuade people to vote Conservative. Makes me think they already think the borough is lost or maybe Labour is worried.

    I worked for Barnet for many years and still have friends who work there. There is the expectation from the staff that Labour will take it.

    Always good to get a view from the ground.
  • chloechloe Posts: 224

    Didn't the Conservatives do particularly poorly in Barnet in 2014 because of Brian Coleman?

    They were shocked how badly they did in 2014 and wished they hadn’t changed to a committee system of governance which happened in January 2014 when they had high hopes of maintaining a healthy majority.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 906
    MaxPB said:
    Who are are the criminals they are protecting and what crime have they committed?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?

    You mean if he whips them to vote against, how many would defy the whip?

    Who cares? "Nothing has changed"
  • chloechloe Posts: 224
    kle4 said:

    chloe said:

    Evening all.

    I live in West Finchley and have had 2 leaflets from Labour already. Nothing from anybody else. Ok it is a Labour ward but with the vote in the borough on a knife edge and the Conservatives already having lost their Majority after the deselection row you’d have thought they would be going out of the way to persuade people to vote Conservative. Makes me think they already think the borough is lost or maybe Labour is worried.

    I worked for Barnet for many years and still have friends who work there. There is the expectation from the staff that Labour will take it.

    Always good to get a view from the ground.
    Labour has been very active since the last local elections.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    While my sympathies are entirely with the householder, it's not the job of the government to ban people from leaving flowers and the like.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?
    Perhaps.

    But since Parliament has always been able to override the Royal Prerogative on such matters anyway by the simple expedient of sacking the government I'm not sure how much difference it makes in practice.
    I can think of a world of difference if the government has already acted in a situation but might then be sacked, to voting on things before they act. Once the ram has touched the wall on an action, or escalation, people might be less willing to push back to the point of sacking the government, but in preventative action beforehand.

    I think there have to be situations where the government should always retain the ability to act, that's one reason we have an executive in the first place, but the trend feels towards parliament becoming increasingly necessary, for better and for worse.
    It is in practice however the same as the situation in the US, where in practice the President can declare war but Congress has to confirm it within 60 days. (Not that that would apply here as this isn't officially a war.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?
    Perhaps.

    But since Parliament has always been able to override the Royal Prerogative on such matters anyway by the simple expedient of sacking the government I'm not sure how much difference it makes in practice.
    I can think of a world of difference if the government has already acted in a situation but might then be sacked, to voting on things before they act. Once the ram has touched the wall on an action, or escalation, people might be less willing to push back to the point of sacking the government, but in preventative action beforehand.

    I think there have to be situations where the government should always retain the ability to act, that's one reason we have an executive in the first place, but the trend feels towards parliament becoming increasingly necessary, for better and for worse.
    It is in practice however the same as the situation in the US, where in practice the President can declare war but Congress has to confirm it within 60 days. (Not that that would apply here as this isn't officially a war.)
    Except in the US the trend has been in the opposite direction since the last Bush, with the President accumulating increasing power to take military action without consulting Congress.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    I never thought I see the Mike Smithson and Barnet together as a thread header .... so to speak .... :sunglasses:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,140

    MaxPB said:
    Who are are the criminals they are protecting and what crime have they committed?
    This type of career criminal. That Worboys, the other pair who tortured, raped and killed a woman earlier in the year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617
    chloe said:

    Evening all.

    I live in West Finchley and have had 2 leaflets from Labour already. Nothing from anybody else. Ok it is a Labour ward but with the vote in the borough on a knife edge and the Conservatives already having lost their Majority after the deselection row you’d have thought they would be going out of the way to persuade people to vote Conservative. Makes me think they already think the borough is lost or maybe Labour is worried.

    I worked for Barnet for many years and still have friends who work there. There is the expectation from the staff that Labour will take it.

    Or it might be they have decided they don't need to bother and are making efforts elsewhere. That's what's happened with every election in my part of Cannock in the last four years, where Labour have made all (and I mean all) the running and the Conservatives have won every election with an increased majority.

    If so they deserve a shellacking. But for some reason my fellow voters won't give it to them. Heck, I'm as bad, I still voted Tory last year despite them sending me precisely nothing!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    rcs1000 said:

    While my sympathies are entirely with the householder, it's not the job of the government to ban people from leaving flowers and the like.
    Though there have been several allegations of intimidation alongside the tribute placing, which if true would be a matter for the authorities.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
    Pelosi has won before in 2006 and 2008, looks like she will be Speaker again come next January.

    Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
    Yep, its the same generation that took control early and is hanging on late. Pelosi is a classic Californian liberal. She appeals strongly to that base but totally turns off too much of the country. It really is time the Dems moved on.
    In Congressional elections voters vote for the party not the leader and after Clinton and Obama she has the 3rd most successful electoral record of any Democratic leader having already led the Democrats to 2 House election victories in 2006 and 2008
    You keep saying the same thing. She is 78 and should retire.
    Given POTUS is also over 70 as are Biden and Sanders, the 2 frontrunners for the 2020 Democratic nomination and given the odds are she will be Speaker in November she of course will not
    Top tip: if you want to make money, lay Biden and Sanders.

    Indeed, I'd happily lay the three favourites in the betting - Biden, Sanders and Warren - all day long.
    Where do you find the energy ... ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?



    Perhaps he knows the vote might not take place.

    Is it getting to the point of almost becoming a convention for Parliament to be consulted in such things as a matter of course?
    Perhaps.

    But since Parliament has always been able to override the Royal Prerogative on such matters anyway by the simple expedient of sacking the government I'm not sure how much difference it makes in practice.
    I can think of a world of difference if the government has already acted in a situation but might then be sacked, to voting on things before they act. Once the ram has touched the wall on an action, or escalation, people might be less willing to push back to the point of sacking the government, but in preventative action beforehand.

    I think there have to be situations where the government should always retain the ability to act, that's one reason we have an executive in the first place, but the trend feels towards parliament becoming increasingly necessary, for better and for worse.
    It is in practice however the same as the situation in the US, where in practice the President can declare war but Congress has to confirm it within 60 days. (Not that that would apply here as this isn't officially a war.)
    Except in the US the trend has been in the opposite direction since the last Bush, with the President accumulating increasing power to take military action without consulting Congress.
    TBF, that has been going on since 1861, and Theodore Roosevelt was a particularly bad offender at describing Wars as 'police actions' to circumvent Congress.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,617
    JackW said:

    I never thought I see the Mike Smithson and Barnet together as a thread header .... so to speak .... :sunglasses:

    We can't all have wigs as awesome as yours Jack. Or indeed be such great Whigs as you are. :wink:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    rcs1000 said:

    While my sympathies are entirely with the householder, it's not the job of the government to ban people from leaving flowers and the like.
    Is it an appropriate use of scarce police resources to police such a controversial"memorial" site ? Also are they still outside the Ecuador embassy ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,711
    rcs1000 said:

    While my sympathies are entirely with the householder, it's not the job of the government to ban people from leaving flowers and the like.
    Indeed so. It's a bad look if they have been threatening people with arrest for taking down the flowers though, correct or not.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 906
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:
    Who are are the criminals they are protecting and what crime have they committed?
    This type of career criminal. That Worboys, the other pair who tortured, raped and killed a woman earlier in the year.
    You seem somewhat confused. Have you been on the skunk again?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889

    It's a good bet as @Sean_F notes, 11/4 on a bet that looks nothing like 11/4.

    However, basing this on the idea of a block Jewish vote is unwise. That vote will already have been largely Conservative in 2014:

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/huge-majority-of-british-jews-will-vote-tory-jc-poll-reveals-1.66001

    Jewish voters can mark their X more forcefully but such votes don't count more. The most that it might do is increase Conservative turnout among such voters.

    This is what I hear from my wholly unrepresentative sample of Jewish friends. Those who are bothered are bothered a lot, but they were never going to vote for Corbyn anyway.
    But, being bothered matters in low turnout elections.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While my sympathies are entirely with the householder, it's not the job of the government to ban people from leaving flowers and the like.
    Though there have been several allegations of intimidation alongside the tribute placing, which if true would be a matter for the authorities.

    Intimidation is a criminal offence, and should be treated accordingly.

    Laying flowers for someone - however distasteful - does not come under the heading of intimidation.

    We have no right not to be offended. Sometimes, like this case, that seems harsh. But the alternative, where the state criminalises behaviour because of how it makes someone feel, is much worse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,217
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    US House Speaker Paul Ryan to quit in blow to Republicans
    ... to grow marijuana

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43729218
    "Meanwhile, the House speaker whom Mr Ryan replaced - John Boehner - announced on Twitter he is joining the board of a legal cannabis corporation "because my thinking on cannabis has evolved".

    The Ohio Republican, who retired from politics in 2015, once said he was "unalterably opposed" to legalising marijuana."

    Ryan can see the writing on the wall and Pelosi is measuring the drapes
    Pelosi? Again? Really? Where is the next generation?
    Pelosi has won before in 2006 and 2008, looks like she will be Speaker again come next January.

    Over 60s dominate political leadership on both sides of the Atlantic at the moment after a period when 40 to 50 year olds held sway
    Yep, its the same generation that took control early and is hanging on late. Pelosi is a classic Californian liberal. She appeals strongly to that base but totally turns off too much of the country. It really is time the Dems moved on.
    In Congressional elections voters vote for the party not the leader and after Clinton and Obama she has the 3rd most successful electoral record of any Democratic leader having already led the Democrats to 2 House election victories in 2006 and 2008
    You keep saying the same thing. She is 78 and should retire.
    It’s an argument, but there is a tradition in the US for very long serving Speakers.
    And it’s not even clear that Pelosi is an electoral liability anymore (though only because Democrats feel free to disavow her from time to time):
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/14/democrats-likely-to-disavow-pelosi-lamb-pennsylvania-417425
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    A Lib Dem PPB focusing on Brexit.

    What a wasted opportunity.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,889
    chloe said:

    Evening all.

    I live in West Finchley and have had 2 leaflets from Labour already. Nothing from anybody else. Ok it is a Labour ward but with the vote in the borough on a knife edge and the Conservatives already having lost their Majority after the deselection row you’d have thought they would be going out of the way to persuade people to vote Conservative. Makes me think they already think the borough is lost or maybe Labour is worried.

    I worked for Barnet for many years and still have friends who work there. There is the expectation from the staff that Labour will take it.

    I expect the Tories are focusing on marginal wards. They have no chance of taking West Finchley.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,575
    Doesn't Vince look older ..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 13,756
    How about incarcerating these serial burglars before this happens?

    Although I've got a lot more anger for our courts. I was a burglary victim once, chased the guy out of my house and got his reg plate, he was arrested and pled guilty to mine and 19 other break-ins. Was given a 12 month suspended sentence - no jail time at all. Straight back on the street to do it again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608

    A Lib Dem PPB focusing on Brexit.

    What a wasted opportunity.

    What's Brexit? Is it a shoe shop?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,596
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While my sympathies are entirely with the householder, it's not the job of the government to ban people from leaving flowers and the like.
    Indeed so. It's a bad look if they have been threatening people with arrest for taking down the flowers though, correct or not.
    It is probably a crime, though (two wrongs are not a right). Obviously arrests are not appropriate because it would be a waste of time.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,940
    LD Party Election Broadcast.

    Vote LD in the local Council Elections toStop BREXIT!!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,348
    edited April 11
    Scott_P said:

    dr_spyn said:

    If Corbyn did call for a vote on Syria in Parliament, how many of his party would follow him?

    You mean if he whips them to vote against, how many would defy the whip?

    Who cares? "Nothing has changed"
    In essence nothing has changed in regard to the UK taking limited action in Syria, since the last vote in 2015 I believe I heard Ken Clarke saying he thought parliament would only need to be recalled if ground troops were to be deployed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 13,756
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While my sympathies are entirely with the householder, it's not the job of the government to ban people from leaving flowers and the like.
    Though there have been several allegations of intimidation alongside the tribute placing, which if true would be a matter for the authorities.

    Intimidation is a criminal offence, and should be treated accordingly.

    Laying flowers for someone - however distasteful - does not come under the heading of intimidation.

    We have no right not to be offended. Sometimes, like this case, that seems harsh. But the alternative, where the state criminalises behaviour because of how it makes someone feel, is much worse.
    Genuine question - is it a criminal offense to remove the flowers?
This discussion has been closed.