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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited April 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks looks ahead to next month’s local elections

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,867
    Thanks for the overview, Alastair.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Silver medal? Thanks Alastair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,008
    edited April 15
    Third! Interesting article. London will drive the media response, and there has been a big swing to Labour in London over recent years (its the recent change that drives gains/losses - not "historical" performance), out of line with the national picture. And more demography and housing than changing "coalitions" Personally I feel Labour may fall short of some of the more optimistic expectations but nevertheless expect to see them make gains.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Indeed. Thanks, Alastair.

    As is often the case, the public perception of the result matters a great deal. Corbyn lost the 2017 GE, but was seen as a winner by many because his defeat was not as big as expected.

    So what is the current mood music? If the Conservatives don't get 'wiped out' in London, will that be signalled as a success? What about Labour and the Lib Dems? What are their expectations?

    Note: this is separate from Alastair's excellent analysis. Expectations are not always based solely on hard, logical reasoning, but also on hope.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    Thanks for that; lot of work in there, Mr M; Much midnight oil burned! Inclined to agree with Mr B2 that the media response will be driven by London, but we have noticed here, have we not that the LD’s are out-polling conventional expectations.
    There’s some evidence, is there not, that many Kippers were previously non-voters; have they changed their habits, and will vote this time, or will tey go back to their old ways?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,008

    Thanks for that; lot of work in there, Mr M; Much midnight oil burned! Inclined to agree with Mr B2 that the media response will be driven by London, but we have noticed here, have we not that the LD’s are out-polling conventional expectations.
    There’s some evidence, is there not, that many Kippers were previously non-voters; have they changed their habits, and will vote this time, or will tey go back to their old ways?

    By the time you take the normally non-voters, NOTAs, and sundry eccentrics away from the UKIP vote totals, there isn't enough left to swing things much in the Tories' favour. That was one of the mistaken assumptions of 2017.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,997
    Thanks Alastair.

    Very interesting.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,975
    IanB2 said:

    Thanks for that; lot of work in there, Mr M; Much midnight oil burned! Inclined to agree with Mr B2 that the media response will be driven by London, but we have noticed here, have we not that the LD’s are out-polling conventional expectations.
    There’s some evidence, is there not, that many Kippers were previously non-voters; have they changed their habits, and will vote this time, or will tey go back to their old ways?

    By the time you take the normally non-voters, NOTAs, and sundry eccentrics away from the UKIP vote totals, there isn't enough left to swing things much in the Tories' favour. That was one of the mistaken assumptions of 2017.
    UKIP's leader announces plans to quit on day he is confirmed
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43769408
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    I wrote a long reply and then lost it.

    In summary, NEVs of 38-40% for both Con and Lab, 15-17% for LDs. Cons gain 75 seats (mostly outside London), Lab gain 50 (mostly in London), LibDems gain 40 (mostly in South West London...). UKIP loses 165.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    IanB2 said:

    Thanks for that; lot of work in there, Mr M; Much midnight oil burned! Inclined to agree with Mr B2 that the media response will be driven by London, but we have noticed here, have we not that the LD’s are out-polling conventional expectations.
    There’s some evidence, is there not, that many Kippers were previously non-voters; have they changed their habits, and will vote this time, or will tey go back to their old ways?

    By the time you take the normally non-voters, NOTAs, and sundry eccentrics away from the UKIP vote totals, there isn't enough left to swing things much in the Tories' favour. That was one of the mistaken assumptions of 2017.
    UKIP's leader announces plans to quit on day he is confirmed
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43769408
    They really should just announce they’ll disband on 30th March next year, their mission being accomplished.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,212
    From the article “However, guidance was changed in 2015 which means that an applicant can now be refused citizenship based on “family association to individuals engaged in terrorism or unacceptable behaviour”.”

    Hmmm..... might the same guidance be used to withdraw British citizenship?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    Cyclefree said:

    From the article “However, guidance was changed in 2015 which means that an applicant can now be refused citizenship based on “family association to individuals engaged in terrorism or unacceptable behaviour”.”

    Hmmm..... might the same guidance be used to withdraw British citizenship?

    As signatories of the 1961 UN Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, we have relatively few levers to pull in this area.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,212
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    From the article “However, guidance was changed in 2015 which means that an applicant can now be refused citizenship based on “family association to individuals engaged in terrorism or unacceptable behaviour”.”

    Hmmm..... might the same guidance be used to withdraw British citizenship?

    As signatories of the 1961 UN Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, we have relatively few levers to pull in this area.
    One of the few levers we have is when people have dual citizenship and therefore would not be stateless without British citizenship.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    Cyclefree said:
    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,212
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:
    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.
    But that is what our guidance permits.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840
    edited April 15
    Survation. Fieldwork 9am to 4pm yesterday

    Do you personally support or oppose the launching of military strikes against Syria by the UK?

    Support 36%

    Oppose 40%

    Don’t know 24%

    Theresa May had obtained cabinet support for "the need to take action" in Syria. Which of the following is closest to your view?

    Theresa May should have held a parliamentary debate and vote before intervening militarily in Syria 54%

    Theresa May should not have held a parliamentary debate and vote before intervening militarily in Syria 30%

    Don’t know 17%

    Theresa May did not seek a parliamentary vote before intervening militarily in Syria. Which of the following is closest to your view?

    I trust Theresa May to make the right decision 39%

    I do not trust Theresa May to make the right decision 43%

    Don’t know 17%

    Which of the following do you trust the most to make the right decision regarding Syria?

    MPs as a collective 51%

    Theresa May 27%

    Don’t know 22%
  • More on that Survation.

    CON: 40% (+3)
    LAB: 40% (-4)
    LDEM: 9% (-)
    UKIP: 3% (-)
    GRN: 1% (-1)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,212
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:
    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.
    Not even when the sons or brothers or spouses might be used as a conduit for the sanctioned individual to evade sanctions?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.

    I hadn't thought that OGH's embrace of the yellow peril was a sin, but you may have a point.
  • Survation continued

    How well or badly do you think Theresa May has handled the situation in Syria so far?

    Very well 12%

    Quite well 24%

    Neither well nor badly 28%

    Quite badly 15%

    Very badly 13%

    Don’t know 7%

    How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has handled the situation in Syria so far?

    Very well 5%

    Quite well 13%

    Neither well nor badly 31%

    Quite badly 16%

    Very badly 20%

    Don’t know 14%

    Which party leader do you trust the most to handle international crises?

    Theresa May 46%

    Jeremy Corbyn 25%

    Don’t know 29%

    Which party leader do you trust the most to make decisions on military matters?

    Theresa May 46%

    Jeremy Corbyn 26%

    Don’t know 28%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,608
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:
    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.
    Not even when the sons or brothers or spouses might be used as a conduit for the sanctioned individual to evade sanctions?
    I'm less bothered by spouses, as being married is something you choose. More simply, if you are a conduit to help A Badguy (pronounced Bad-gee) avoid sanctions then you are a criminal.

    If you are merely related to a bad guy and have a job in London, it seems that you are getting dangerously close to holding people responsible for their relatives actions.
  • More Survation.

    Which of these Prime Ministers would you trust the most to handle potential military conflict?

    Theresa May 12%

    David Cameron 10%

    Gordon Brown 7%

    Tony Blair 7%

    John Major 5%

    Margaret Thatcher 30%

    Don’t know 28%
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,781
    edited April 15



    So what is the current mood music? If the Conservatives don't get 'wiped out' in London, will that be signalled as a success? What about Labour and the Lib Dems? What are their expectations?

    May also has the Corbyn pare-feu in place no matter how shit the result. If she is dethroned then a possible GE looms...
  • Finally from Survation

    Which of the following do you think is the bigger factor influencing Theresa May’s desire to take military action against Syria?

    Genuine concern for the victims of chemical weapons attacks 47%

    Desire to improve her status as a strong leader on the world stage 38%

    Don’t know 15%

    Which of the following do you think is the bigger factor influencing Jeremy Corbyn’s decision to oppose military action against Syria?

    Genuine belief that military action was not justified and/or would make things worse 40%

    Political opportunism in trying to damage the government 40%

    Don’t know 20%

    Do you personally support or oppose the launching of further military strikes against Syria by the UK?

    Support 30%

    Oppose 45%

    Don't know 25%

    Which of the following is closest to your view?

    The UK should only take part in further raids on Syria with the approval of Parliament 61%

    The UK should take part in further raids on Syria regardless of the approval of Parliament 20%

    Don't know 18%
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,280
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:
    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.
    Not even when the sons or brothers or spouses might be used as a conduit for the sanctioned individual to evade sanctions?
    Then that should be investigated as such. If the authorities are concerned, examine their finances and dealings with a fine-tooth comb and try to remove any money not lawfully earnt (if, that is, there is suitable legislation (*) - I'm guessing the proceeds of crime act doesn't have enough breadth).

    We may well learn more to our advantage than just chucking them out.

    But it is really worrying that you assume there must be wrongdoing just because their father is a wrong'un. You might be right - in fact, I think you probably are, although I could not tell you the scale - but there has to be a proper and fair process.

    (*) If there is not such legislation, some should probably be created quickly. International agreement might also help here.
  • rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Pedantic Physics teacher here, but I suspect we use more than about 40 btu a year: is there a power of ten missing? I also find it slightly painful when people who should know better confuse energy and power...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Isn’t natural gas a fossil fuel? Certainly not a renewable.
  • rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Isn’t natural gas a fossil fuel? Certainly not a renewable.
    It is, but you don’t need as much gas to get the same amount of electrical energy as you do when burning a unit of coal; gas can be burned more efficiently.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    @TSE .. Jezza's dire Survation Syria numbers making the PM look half decent. That said May's -24 on the failure to consult parliament in telling.

    Tomorrow Mrs May will have an uncomfortable ride in the Commons on that failure and rightly so. She is gaining a deserved reputation for avoiding important set piece political theatre. It cost her at the general election and will hamper her position tomorrow.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Isn’t natural gas a fossil fuel? Certainly not a renewable.
    It is, but you don’t need as much gas to get the same amount of electrical energy as you do when burning a unit of coal; gas can be burned more efficiently.
    Thanks. Must have known that sometime but......
  • Max Verstappen is proving for the second weekend in a row that he's a right Dutch shunt
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,966

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:
    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.
    Not even when the sons or brothers or spouses might be used as a conduit for the sanctioned individual to evade sanctions?
    Then that should be investigated as such. If the authorities are concerned, examine their finances and dealings with a fine-tooth comb and try to remove any money not lawfully earnt (if, that is, there is suitable legislation (*) - I'm guessing the proceeds of crime act doesn't have enough breadth).

    We may well learn more to our advantage than just chucking them out.

    But it is really worrying that you assume there must be wrongdoing just because their father is a wrong'un. You might be right - in fact, I think you probably are, although I could not tell you the scale - but there has to be a proper and fair process.

    (*) If there is not such legislation, some should probably be created quickly. International agreement might also help here.
    I believe Bashar Al Assad's father-in-law, a retired medic, is a longstanding resident of North Acton. He's been keeping quite a low profile for the last few years.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 743

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Pedantic Physics teacher here, but I suspect we use more than about 40 btu a year: is there a power of ten missing? I also find it slightly painful when people who should know better confuse energy and power...
    I haven't looked at this for a few years, and I'm sure that there is plenty wrong with my sums, but back in 2011 I calculated that...

    The UK consumed 212,310,000 TOE (tonnes of oil equivalent) of energy (DUKES).

    Multiply TOE by 11630 (as defined by DUKES) to produce 2,469,165,300,000 kWh

    The population at the time was around 62.3 million so 39,633kWh per person per year.

    Divided by 365 this produces 109kWh energy consumption per person, per day.

    The same DUKES reported that UK electricity consumption was 374,343,000,000

    Hence just 15.16% of the UK's energy was consumed as electricity during 2011.

    In 2011, wind power accounted for 12,675,000,000 kWh of that electricity, or 3.39%

    Wind therefore accounted for 0.51% of the UK's 2011 energy consumption.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes





  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,981
    edited April 15
    JackW said:

    @TSE .. Jezza's dire Survation Syria numbers making the PM look half decent. That said May's -24 on the failure to consult parliament in telling.

    Tomorrow Mrs May will have an uncomfortable ride in the Commons on that failure and rightly so. She is gaining a deserved reputation for avoiding important set piece political theatre. It cost her at the general election and will hamper her position tomorrow.

    Foreign policy doesn't sway many votes and is Corbyn's weakest area in terms of not being in line with public opinion. If I were his campaign manager I'd be fairly happy with those numbers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    edited April 15

    Max Verstappen is proving for the second weekend in a row that he's a right Dutch shunt

    Yup, he’s thrown away a podium today. Needs to calm down more than a little.

    Great race though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:
    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.
    Not even when the sons or brothers or spouses might be used as a conduit for the sanctioned individual to evade sanctions?
    Then that should be investigated as such. If the authorities are concerned, examine their finances and dealings with a fine-tooth comb and try to remove any money not lawfully earnt (if, that is, there is suitable legislation (*) - I'm guessing the proceeds of crime act doesn't have enough breadth).

    We may well learn more to our advantage than just chucking them out.

    But it is really worrying that you assume there must be wrongdoing just because their father is a wrong'un. You might be right - in fact, I think you probably are, although I could not tell you the scale - but there has to be a proper and fair process.

    (*) If there is not such legislation, some should probably be created quickly. International agreement might also help here.
    I believe Bashar Al Assad's father-in-law, a retired medic, is a longstanding resident of North Acton. He's been keeping quite a low profile for the last few years.
    I really don’t think you can ‘blame' a father-in-law for the actions of the bloke his daughter married. Past experience suggests opposition from Dad only hardens the resolve of Daughter!

    Besides which when the marriage took place Bashar Al Assad was a respectable opthalmologist in West London.
  • Gadfly said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Pedantic Physics teacher here, but I suspect we use more than about 40 btu a year: is there a power of ten missing? I also find it slightly painful when people who should know better confuse energy and power...
    I haven't looked at this for a few years, and I'm sure that there is plenty wrong with my sums, but back in 2011 I calculated that...

    The UK consumed 212,310,000 TOE (tonnes of oil equivalent) of energy (DUKES).

    Multiply TOE by 11630 (as defined by DUKES) to produce 2,469,165,300,000 kWh

    The population at the time was around 62.3 million so 39,633kWh per person per year.

    Divided by 365 this produces 109kWh energy consumption per person, per day.

    The same DUKES reported that UK electricity consumption was 374,343,000,000

    Hence just 15.16% of the UK's energy was consumed as electricity during 2011.

    In 2011, wind power accounted for 12,675,000,000 kWh of that electricity, or 3.39%

    Wind therefore accounted for 0.51% of the UK's 2011 energy consumption.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes





    This is not a complaint about your post as you supplied a conversion factor (and reference!) but I do wish there weren’t so many different units in use for energy. The SI seems to have failed badly here, and you just have to know everything from an eV to a FOE.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,940
    JackW said:

    @TSE .. Jezza's dire Survation Syria numbers making the PM look half decent. That said May's -24 on the failure to consult parliament in telling.

    Tomorrow Mrs May will have an uncomfortable ride in the Commons on that failure and rightly so. She is gaining a deserved reputation for avoiding important set piece political theatre. It cost her at the general election and will hamper her position tomorrow.

    JackW, I am not so sure that its May who will have the uncomfortable ride in the Commons tomorrow. She appears to have both the support of her Cabinet and her backbenchers, not sure that Corbyn when he gets to his feet will be able to say the same.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,680
    edited April 15

    Stand by for petulant #BrexitBroadcastingCorporation tweets when the BBC doesn't give this bunch of sore losers wall-to-wall coverage for the next week.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Essexit said:

    ttps://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/985414621875130368?s=19
    Stand by for petulant #BrexitBroadcastingCorporation tweets when the BBC doesn't give this bunch of sore losers wall-to-wall coverage for the next week.

    The only petulance is among those who refuse to accept the result of the referendum.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 743

    Gadfly said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Pedantic Physics teacher here, but I suspect we use more than about 40 btu a year: is there a power of ten missing? I also find it slightly painful when people who should know better confuse energy and power...
    I haven't looked at this for a few years, and I'm sure that there is plenty wrong with my sums, but back in 2011 I calculated that...

    The UK consumed 212,310,000 TOE (tonnes of oil equivalent) of energy (DUKES).

    Multiply TOE by 11630 (as defined by DUKES) to produce 2,469,165,300,000 kWh

    The population at the time was around 62.3 million so 39,633kWh per person per year.

    Divided by 365 this produces 109kWh energy consumption per person, per day.

    The same DUKES reported that UK electricity consumption was 374,343,000,000

    Hence just 15.16% of the UK's energy was consumed as electricity during 2011.

    In 2011, wind power accounted for 12,675,000,000 kWh of that electricity, or 3.39%

    Wind therefore accounted for 0.51% of the UK's 2011 energy consumption.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes





    This is not a complaint about your post as you supplied a conversion factor (and reference!) but I do wish there weren’t so many different units in use for energy. The SI seems to have failed badly here, and you just have to know everything from an eV to a FOE.
    My complaint is that every time a wind farm is proposed, its output is always expressed in how many 'households' it will supply, but they always use a mean value that seems to apply to bedsits. This kids us into believing that the wind farm will satisfy all of our energy needs, which is not only complete nonsense, but a million miles from the truth.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: well, that was a race. No spoilers, but if you only watch casually this is one race for which you'll want to see the highlights.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    edited April 15

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: well, that was a race. No spoilers, but if you only watch casually this is one race for which you'll want to see the highlights.

    Great race, albeit a little annoying from the betting side. Definitely worth catching the highlights if you are an irregular viewer.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,411
    fitalass said:

    JackW said:

    @TSE .. Jezza's dire Survation Syria numbers making the PM look half decent. That said May's -24 on the failure to consult parliament in telling.

    Tomorrow Mrs May will have an uncomfortable ride in the Commons on that failure and rightly so. She is gaining a deserved reputation for avoiding important set piece political theatre. It cost her at the general election and will hamper her position tomorrow.

    JackW, I am not so sure that its May who will have the uncomfortable ride in the Commons tomorrow. She appears to have both the support of her Cabinet and her backbenchers, not sure that Corbyn when he gets to his feet will be able to say the same.
    Clearly Jezza will have many enemies to the front and plenty to the back but it is the governments position that is at the forefront and Mrs has undercut her position by a completely avoidable failure and I expect she will also find critical voices behind her.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Essexit said:


    Stand by for petulant #BrexitBroadcastingCorporation tweets when the BBC doesn't give this bunch of sore losers wall-to-wall coverage for the next week.

    Patrick Stewart on Marr this morning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,840
    edited April 15
    Sorry but it needs saying again, Daniel Riccardio is a dirty mingin' bastard.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. Sandpit, must admit, I had a tiny sum on the winner at 31 (also Verstappen, 26). Both very pleased but also annoyed I learnt of a one-stop being viable too late to tip it properly.

    I believe most of your bets came off, no?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    Sorry but it needs saying again, Daniel Riccardio is a dirty mingin' bastard.

    Are his shoes not up to your standard?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,550
    Essexit said:


    Stand by for petulant #BrexitBroadcastingCorporation tweets when the BBC doesn't give this bunch of sore losers wall-to-wall coverage for the next week.

    The "people's vote" because last time round was an oligarchic stitch up, was it? Good to see a median income prole like Lord Adonis promoting it, then.
  • surbysurby Posts: 678

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:
    I'm not particularly comfortable holding sons responsible for the sins of their fathers.
    Not even when the sons or brothers or spouses might be used as a conduit for the sanctioned individual to evade sanctions?
    Then that should be investigated as such. If the authorities are concerned, examine their finances and dealings with a fine-tooth comb and try to remove any money not lawfully earnt (if, that is, there is suitable legislation (*) - I'm guessing the proceeds of crime act doesn't have enough breadth).

    We may well learn more to our advantage than just chucking them out.

    But it is really worrying that you assume there must be wrongdoing just because their father is a wrong'un. You might be right - in fact, I think you probably are, although I could not tell you the scale - but there has to be a proper and fair process.

    (*) If there is not such legislation, some should probably be created quickly. International agreement might also help here.
    I believe Bashar Al Assad's father-in-law, a retired medic, is a longstanding resident of North Acton. He's been keeping quite a low profile for the last few years.
    Is he a chemist ? Did he supply the formula ? What are you talking about ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    Mr. Sandpit, must admit, I had a tiny sum on the winner at 31 (also Verstappen, 26). Both very pleased but also annoyed I learnt of a one-stop being viable too late to tip it properly.

    I believe most of your bets came off, no?

    I’d a few quid on the second place finisher to win, and the wrong option for SC.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,680
    tlg86 said:

    Essexit said:


    Stand by for petulant #BrexitBroadcastingCorporation tweets when the BBC doesn't give this bunch of sore losers wall-to-wall coverage for the next week.

    Patrick Stewart on Marr this morning.
    Well it's a Pokémon Go Community Day today so I'll be catching some shiny Mareep rather than listening to him witter on.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364

    Sorry but it needs saying again, Daniel Riccardio is a dirty mingin' bastard.

    What has he done to earn this level of vituperation?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,601

    JackW said:

    @TSE .. Jezza's dire Survation Syria numbers making the PM look half decent. That said May's -24 on the failure to consult parliament in telling.

    Tomorrow Mrs May will have an uncomfortable ride in the Commons on that failure and rightly so. She is gaining a deserved reputation for avoiding important set piece political theatre. It cost her at the general election and will hamper her position tomorrow.

    Foreign policy doesn't sway many votes and is Corbyn's weakest area in terms of not being in line with public opinion. If I were his campaign manager I'd be fairly happy with those numbers.
    Agreed. A 40-40 split on genuine belief vs opportunism and a huge majority in favour of his actual views seems a decent result, and useful armour against the next time he's accused of lack of patriotism ("Well, I agreed with him about Syria"). May is +9 on genuine vs opportunist, but way behind on the policy itself.

    That said, as you say, few vote on foreign policy!

    On topic, I expect the locals to be a bit meh, with something for everyone except UKIP.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594

    Sorry but it needs saying again, Daniel Riccardio is a dirty mingin' bastard.

    What has he done to earn this level of vituperation?
    Using his sweaty racing boots as champagne glasses.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. Sandpit, ah, didn't know if you'd backed him each way.

    Anyway, the vulgar matter of money aside, fantastic race.
  • surbysurby Posts: 678

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Isn’t natural gas a fossil fuel? Certainly not a renewable.
    It is, but you don’t need as much gas to get the same amount of electrical energy as you do when burning a unit of coal; gas can be burned more efficiently.
    When we talk about fossil vs renewables, we have to talk about batteries. The moment they become truly efficient, we are talking business.

    I have a "feel-good" plug-in SUV for almost 6 months. Apart from making me feel good [ and lower personal taxes but higher fuel costs to my employer ], it is the biggest disappointment.

    Since my house is about 6 miles from work, I just about manage it with one charge in winter. So I fill in with petrol about once a month unless I drive on the motorway.

    Efficient batteries will change the dynamics. No engine, no gearbox, very small fuel tank [ if at all ]. Just four motors and many, many, batteries.
  • Sorry but it needs saying again, Daniel Riccardio is a dirty mingin' bastard.

    What has he done to earn this level of vituperation?
    He used his dirty sweaty race shoes to drink champagne from.

    Honestly it is the worse thing an Aussie sportsman has done this year, even worse than Smith, Warner, and Bancroft.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,986
    edited April 15
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Essexit said:


    Stand by for petulant #BrexitBroadcastingCorporation tweets when the BBC doesn't give this bunch of sore losers wall-to-wall coverage for the next week.

    The "people's vote" because last time round was an oligarchic stitch up, was it? Good to see a median income prole like Lord Adonis promoting it, then.
    While I object to titles of nobility and the House of Lords full stop, Lord Adonis does have a fairly proletarian backstory, being just about the only prominent politician brought up in a care home. His father was a single parent waiter and postman. His mother ran off with another bloke, so he and his sister wound up in a Camden Council care home for years. Not the most auspicious start in life.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    Marr - Peoples vote launches in Camden with celebrities

    That says it all
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 2,986
    surby said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's a nice chart for PBers:

    image

    Can anybody tell me what the y axis is?

    (Clue: anyone who reads my posts on here knows this is one of my areas of knowledge.)

    UK energy consumption - not sure of the units.
    Close enough.

    The y-axis is fossil fuels used in UK electricity consumption (in BTUs).

    There are three separate factors affecting it:

    1. Overall energy consumption is falling thanks to tougher efficiency standards.
    2. Natural gas is a much more efficient fuel to generate electricty from. (It takes fewer BTUs of methane than of coal to produce a KW of electricty.)
    3. Renewables are replacing fossil fuels.
    Isn’t natural gas a fossil fuel? Certainly not a renewable.
    It is, but you don’t need as much gas to get the same amount of electrical energy as you do when burning a unit of coal; gas can be burned more efficiently.
    When we talk about fossil vs renewables, we have to talk about batteries. The moment they become truly efficient, we are talking business.

    I have a "feel-good" plug-in SUV for almost 6 months. Apart from making me feel good [ and lower personal taxes but higher fuel costs to my employer ], it is the biggest disappointment.

    Since my house is about 6 miles from work, I just about manage it with one charge in winter. So I fill in with petrol about once a month unless I drive on the motorway.

    Efficient batteries will change the dynamics. No engine, no gearbox, very small fuel tank [ if at all ]. Just four motors and many, many, batteries.
    As a matter of interest, what model?

    I am looking at getting the Hyundai Ioniq plug in hybrid, but not for another year or two.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Pretty honest stuff from Stewart. The wrong sort of people voted leave.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,422
    Great betting day yday with the tiger and city obliging. .. .spurs not turning up after I drove 5 hours to do so... The so and so's

    My jezza to go in 18 bets not looking as good. Tracey crouch like the tiger just staying in the pack of riders for now before making her move. Come on those Barnet tories !!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Jesus, Corbyn really is off the reservation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    edited April 15
    Mr. 86, what have Stewart and Corbyn been saying?

    Edited extra bit: writing the post-race ramble. Should be up this morning.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    James Tapsfield - @JamesTapsfield: Labour leader says he would not countenance any military action without UN resolution. So Russian veto on UK foreign policy
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    Corbyn is at best a dreamer or at worst a malign force in our Country
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,940
    edited April 15

    Great betting day yday with the tiger and city obliging. .. .spurs not turning up after I drove 5 hours to do so... The so and so's

    My jezza to go in 18 bets not looking as good. Tracey crouch like the tiger just staying in the pack of riders for now before making her move. Come on those Barnet tories !!

    So I am not the only one who has had a wee bet on Corbyn standing down this year despite his fan base among the Labour party membership.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. P, that's a very unfair comment.

    It doesn't simply mean a Russian veto on UK foreign policy. It means China has one too.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,482
    Scott_P said:

    James Tapsfield - @JamesTapsfield: Labour leader says he would not countenance any military action without UN resolution. So Russian veto on UK foreign policy

    And French. Someone get the smelling salts for TSE...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828

    Mr. 86, what have Stewart and Corbyn been saying?

    Stewart: Jean-Luc Picard and his character from X-Men were good men. They'd have voted remain. He was utterly transparent that this is about stopping Brexit.

    Corbyn: Had the nerve to point out that chlorine has other uses. To be fair to Marr, he's asking all the questions we've asked on here. He asked Corbyn what he'd do if due process was followed and Corbyn just said we should confront Assad "or anyone else who may be blamed" and get them to destroy the stocks as was done in 2013 and 2015. Yeah, 'cos they really were all destroyed. :angry:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244

    Corbyn is at best a dreamer or at worst a malign force in our Country

    By their friends shall ye know them...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    Oliver Cooper - @OliverCooper: Corbyn's obsession with asking the Kremlin before doing anything is appalling. Putin has vetoed the UN taking action time and time again. He's accused the UK of being behind both Salisbury and Assad's war crimes. Enough is enough.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    Corbyn still not accepting Russia involvement in Salisbury.

    He is just a disgrace
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,964
    Imagine being in a cult/party led by this doddery old tin foil hatted leftie loon.

    George Smiley would have had him in the clink within weeks.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,482
    Corbyn simply wouldn’t defend us. A naive fool or a malign fool. Or both.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    (((Dan Hodges))) - @DPJHodges: Corbyn can't do it. He just can't do it. He can't admit he was wrong and May was right.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 3,940
    edited April 15
    tlg86 said:

    Jesus, Corbyn really is off the reservation.

    Just waiting to see how many Labour backbenchers decide to back May while they try to distance themselves from Corbyn's position on Syria tomorrow in the HoCs.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    Matt Dathan - @matt_dathan: And now Jeremy Corbyn demands to see " incontrovertible evidence" that Russia was behind the Skripal attack.
    He'll be accused of playing into the Kremlin's hands again.... @MarrShow
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828

    Corbyn still not accepting Russia involvement in Salisbury.

    He is just a disgrace

    You'd love to have him on a jury if you were the defendant (unless it was revealed during the trial that you were a banker or something).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,244
    Jack Mendel - @Mendelpol: This is an embarrassing interview from Corbyn on #Marr. He's completely obsessed with process. If he ever did get near number 10.. nothing would ever get done, until it's been run through 15 international agencies
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828
    Scott_P said:
    And Marr pointed out that Corbyn had voted against action even when it was supported by the UN.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,720
    Mr. 86, well, at least he's honest. [Stewart I mean].

    Corbyn remains an utter cock.

    Mr. P, be fair. Corbyn probably hasn't been shown the evidence. It'd be simpler just to tell Putin directly, after all.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,584
    Corbyn on Marr is quite the most alarming display of Putin loving anti UK rhetoric I have seen from any UK leader in my lifetime. Well done to Marr.

    And a question to those labour supporters on here - are you really prepared to put up with this dangerous old fool
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,482
    At the very least surely the USA would pull the plug on the five eyes agreement during week one of Corbyn being in No 10? Couldn’t blame them really.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,828

    Corbyn on Marr is quite the most alarming display of Putin loving anti UK rhetoric I have seen from any UK leader in my lifetime. Well done to Marr.

    And a question to those labour supporters on here - are you really prepared to put up with this dangerous old fool

    Don't worry, @Southam_Observer is going to overthrow him.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,482
    tlg86 said:

    Corbyn on Marr is quite the most alarming display of Putin loving anti UK rhetoric I have seen from any UK leader in my lifetime. Well done to Marr.

    And a question to those labour supporters on here - are you really prepared to put up with this dangerous old fool

    Don't worry, @Southam_Observer is going to overthrow him.
    I hope he does. For all our sakes we need sanity at the top of the Labour Party.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,981
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn is at best a dreamer or at worst a malign force in our Country

    By their friends shall ye know them...
    By their use of antique english for effect shall you giggle at them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174

    Corbyn on Marr is quite the most alarming display of Putin loving anti UK rhetoric I have seen from any UK leader in my lifetime. Well done to Marr.

    And a question to those labour supporters on here - are you really prepared to put up with this dangerous old fool

    But, but, think of the the free bus passes for under 25s...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,108
    edited April 15

    Marr - Peoples vote launches in Camden with celebrities

    That says it all

    You'd have to have some respect for their political acumen if they'd launched it in Sunderland.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,594
    Scott_P said:

    Matt Dathan - @matt_dathan: And now Jeremy Corbyn demands to see " incontrovertible evidence" that Russia was behind the Skripal attack.
    He'll be accused of playing into the Kremlin's hands again.... @MarrShow

    The amazing thing is that he would have had an intelligence briefing under Privy Council terms, he has seen all the classified stuff the rest of us don’t get to see - evidence that convinced the rest of the world to take action against Russia - yet he STILL doesn’t think he’s seen enough.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,174
    And less than 24 hours after I predicted Corbyn would put this in the next Lab manifesto, Here it is:

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,964
    Boris excellent on Marr.
This discussion has been closed.