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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay and Corbyn are still there at the next election then Windrush & antisemitism could still be dogging them

What a dramatic few days for both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition. Two huge issues continue to dominate the news which are big negatives for each of them respectively.

Read the full story here

TheWhiteRabbit

If Jezza doesn't give us six questions about Windrush, he might as well give up and go home.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/986508026378178560?s=21

steve_garner

Can't see Windrush being an issue if the next election is in 2022.

HYUFD

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

houndtang

I remember thinking the election felt opportunistic and might backfire. But what odds would you have got on a hung Parliament and 40% for Labour on that day?

TheScreamingEagles

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

TheWhiteRabbit

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

She will go. Her opponents won't need to argue, they will just say how it has to be.

TheWhiteRabbit

UK inflation fell to 2.5% in March, down from 2.7% in February, official figures show

That pay deal looking better.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Stereotomy

TheWhiteRabbit said:

If Jezza doesn't give us six questions about Windrush, he might as well give up and go home.

He should ask why there were months of inaction followed by a U-turn the moment the sun and the daily mail got involved

FrankBooth

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/986508026378178560?s=21

I wonder if that Mail headline damaged May?

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

Anazina

Foxy etc

There is a good deal of mythology punted over New Zealand's climate, mostly by New Zealanders who are generally overly promotional about their own country, but also by Brits who have spent a few months there and got lucky. Even the East Coast is darned wet. It boasts more sunshine hours than, say, London, but at the cost of almost twice the annual rainfall.

Friends have just moved there, and it's not been a resounding success so far. Everything is very spread out; the pubs are crap or nonexistent; and even the cities require driving everywhere. It is not conducive to a good social life.

Regarding the economy, and opportunities, there are not many.

No-one can deny it has beautiful landscapes, but so does Britain, so does France, yet the downsides are manifold in NZ compared to those similar sized nations.

@RCS1000 is not far off when he calls NZ isolated. It is. It has the land area the size of the UK, with a population smaller than Scotland.

Nigelb

steve_garner said:

Can't see Windrush being an issue if the next election is in 2022.

I think it rather likely that immigration will, though.

May's instincts are quite clearly on the illiberal side of the party on this issue.

Sandpit

houndtang said:

I remember thinking the election felt opportunistic and might backfire. But what odds would you have got on a hung Parliament and 40% for Labour on that day?

Tory Majority was in the 1/5 - 1/6 range when the election was called, and 1/4 the week before - as I discovered to my cost with a massive loss

Handymandy1980

Windrush won't make much of a splash I'm afraid.

Antisemitism on the other hand may very well.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

Theresa May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher, it was not so much she lost voteshare over the campaign but Corbyn gained it from minor parties

Foxy

steve_garner said:

Can't see Windrush being an issue if the next election is in 2022.

In 2 ways, one is Mrs May's ongoing re-toxification of the Conservative party, and the second one is the implications for other groups of migrants to Britain, particularly EU citizens.

I think Corbyn's anaemic response to anti-semitism is pretty much priced in as it was last year.

Morris_Dancer

Dogging them, perhaps. ITV had the debate as it's number two item. BBC managed to only have it at the very end of the programme. Reportedly, Sky didn't mention it at all.

SouthamObserver

Windrush and anti-Semitism will help in continuing to ensure a divided electorate, with voters focusing on what they perceive to be the worst option and how to stop it.

Handymandy1980

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

I don't think she'll make the same mistake twice. The opposite in fact.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

Theresa May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher, it was not so much she lost voteshare over the campaign but Corbyn gained it from minor parties

A good Tory Leader would have ensured someone as awful as Corbyn polled sub 30%

Sandpit

TheWhiteRabbit said:

UK inflation fell to 2.5% in March, down from 2.7% in February, official figures show

That pay deal looking better.

That’s going to hurt the pound today, reduces the chances of a long overdue interest rate rise which was starting to be priced in for May (next month, rather than the PM).

ExiledInScotland

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

Handymandy1980

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

Well let's be very clear about this. Almost everyone has got TM completely and utterly wrong. At least Mike Smithson has had the integrity to admit it, unlike you TSE who still bleats the GO line from the increasingly isolated margins of history.

Unfortunately there's an unpleasant rump of Tories who don't like to be led by a woman. We had the same nonsense with some grandees preferring the manifestly unsuitable Heath over Maggie. TM has many of the resilient qualities of Maggie who, let it be remembered, was in deep deep deep doggy-do up until when the Argentinians gifted her a way out.

Theresa has proved remarkably strong and I fully expect her to lead the Conservatives into the next election, which I'm 90%+ certain she will win convincingly.

Foxy

Anazina said:

Foxy etc

There is a good deal of mythology punted over New Zealand's climate, mostly by New Zealanders who are generally overly promotional about their own country, but also by Brits who have spent a few months there and got lucky. Even the East Coast is darned wet. It boasts more sunshine hours than, say, London, but at the cost of almost twice the annual rainfall.

Friends have just moved there, and it's not been a resounding success so far. Everything is very spread out; the pubs are crap or nonexistent; and even the cities require driving everywhere. It is not conducive to a good social life.

Regarding the economy, and opportunities, there are not many.

No-one can deny it has beautiful landscapes, but so does Britain, so does France, yet the downsides are manifold in NZ compared to those similar sized nations.

@RCS1000 is not far off when he calls NZ isolated. It is. It has the land area the size of the UK, with a population smaller than Scotland.

I lived for a year in Christchurch, so got to know it well. NZ microclimates vary a lot. Nelson and Napier are probably the best, with Christchurch and Bay of Plenty also pretty good for climate. Wellington is windy and wet, and Auckland warm and wet. Greymouth is just wet!

It certainly felt very isolated in the pre internet era. Economically patchy and a surprising amount of drugs and violent gang crime.

glw

ExiledInScotland said:

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

He couldn't even be arsed to hear how it has affected his own colleagues.

rkrkrk

Handymandy1980 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

Well let's be very clear about this. Almost everyone has got TM completely and utterly wrong. At least Mike Smithson has had the integrity to admit it, unlike you TSE who still bleats the GO line from the increasingly isolated margins of history.

Unfortunately there's an unpleasant rump of Tories who don't like to be led by a woman. We had the same nonsense with some grandees preferring the manifestly unsuitable Heath over Maggie. TM has many of the resilient qualities of Maggie who, let it be remembered, was in deep deep deep doggy-do up until when the Argentinians gifted her a way out.

Theresa has proved remarkably strong and I fully expect her to lead the Conservatives into the next election, which I'm 90%+ certain she will win convincingly.

Lucky for you then that there are betting markets which will let you double your money on a 90% certainty.

david_herdson

I don't think the Windrush issue will be dogging May come 2022, not least because I don't expect her to be leading the Tories.

But if we assume she is still in post, I still don't think it'll be a problem: it's relatively easily sorted just by easing off on the documentation demanded. Whether there might be some similar problem relating to EU citizens' registrations is a whole different matter. Even so, that's still a question of policy and process and, as such, resolvable, even if the cost is jettisoning the purpose of the policy.

Corbyn's problems, however, run deeper. The anti-Jewish racism is embedded into the worldview of large parts of his core support and that's not going to go away because he's not going to challenge it and because their assumptions aren't going to change. It won't, however, be a first-order issue for voters - they'll carry on voting on the economy, housing, the NHS, security, Brexit, and so on.

It will, however, cause all sorts of internal problems for Labour and might yet, if some case become sufficiently totemic, be the trigger for a formal split: it's always easier to split on a nominal point of principle that makes your opponents look like prize sh*ts.

Barnesian

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

May and Corbyn will have gone. It will be Johnson versus Thornberry.

The context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame. Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

Labour majority.

murali_s

Handymandy1980 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

Well let's be very clear about this. Almost everyone has got TM completely and utterly wrong. At least Mike Smithson has had the integrity to admit it, unlike you TSE who still bleats the GO line from the increasingly isolated margins of history.

Unfortunately there's an unpleasant rump of Tories who don't like to be led by a woman. We had the same nonsense with some grandees preferring the manifestly unsuitable Heath over Maggie. TM has many of the resilient qualities of Maggie who, let it be remembered, was in deep deep deep doggy-do up until when the Argentinians gifted her a way out.

Theresa has proved remarkably strong and I fully expect her to lead the Conservatives into the next election, which I'm 90%+ certain she will win convincingly.

Dream on brother!

The Tories are staid and old - even some of the long standing big Tory posters on here have implied as much.

TheScreamingEagles

I think Windrush means Amber Rudd won’t be Mrs May’s successor, even before we consider her tiny majority.

david_herdson

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

In his actions and inactions, and in who he's prepared to voluntarily align with politically, Corbyn is passively antisemitic and is leading a party which on his watch has developed what looks very like institutional anti-jewish racism. It's obviously not the intense racism of, say, the National Front, but in the extent to which Jews are treated differently, both within and without, and in the party's failure to adequately recognise or address that problem, it's racism all the same.

TheWhiteRabbit

Sandpit said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

UK inflation fell to 2.5% in March, down from 2.7% in February, official figures show

That pay deal looking better.

That’s going to hurt the pound today, reduces the chances of a long overdue interest rate rise which was starting to be priced in for May (next month, rather than the PM).

Based on the FT's analysis, apparently inflation concerns are not what is driving the prospect of a rate rise. Nevertheless it is a factor and the pound is down about a cent against the dollar.

Theuniondivvie

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/985911633640935424


Since I know how keen PBers are to arbitrate on this matter, could a judgment be made as to whether the 9% of voters who think the Windrush children should be kicked out are racists & xenophobes?

HYUFD

Barnesian said:

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

May and Corbyn will have gone. It will be Johnson versus Thornberry.

The context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame. Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

Labour majority.

No it will definitely be Corbyn, he is going nowhere Labour members will see to that, though if May goes it might be Boris v Corbyn.

Thornberry is Ed Miliband in a skirt. Let us also not forget Major won in the midst of a recession in 1992 given Kinnock was the alternative

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think Windrush means Amber Rudd won’t be Mrs May’s successor, even before we consider her tiny majority.

There’s now an unusually large spread on her in the next PM market. Lay price out to 27. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.125575094

rottenborough

Barnesian said:

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

May and Corbyn will have gone. It will be Johnson versus Thornberry.

The context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame. Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

Labour majority.

How do we end up with Corbyn gone?

currystar

How you can compare the Windrush issue with what is currently happening in the Labour Party is completely beyond me. The Windrush issue is a cock up and will be sorted. Threatening to rape an MPs wife because the MP stood in solidarity with Jewish MPs getting abuse from members of their own party is a whole different level, especially when the leader of the party does nothing about it and those threatening are his most ardent supporters.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

Theresa May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher, it was not so much she lost voteshare over the campaign but Corbyn gained it from minor parties

A good Tory Leader would have ensured someone as awful as Corbyn polled sub 30%

Even Cameron could not keep Corbyn below 30%, Labour got 31% in the 2016 local elections and the Tories 30%

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/986508026378178560?s=21

They couldn't have come up with a worse picture! She looks totally unhinged!

rottenborough

glw said:

ExiledInScotland said:

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

He couldn't even be arsed to hear how it has affected his own colleagues.

He probably takes the view they wont be colleagues for too much longer, once his cult have got the deselection processes under way.

david_herdson

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

Theresa May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher, it was not so much she lost voteshare over the campaign but Corbyn gained it from minor parties

Shortly after the election was called, the Tories were consistently scoring in the high-40s, and hit 50% in one. Corbyn did indeed take share from the LDs and UKIP (though we have to assume that Con took share from UKIP too), so there must have been a direct swing from Con to Lab between late April and early June. Indeed, I know there was: people who'd given support in canvassing early on had defected by the time it came to knocking-up.

asjohnstone

Neither of these will really shift any voters.

Frankly a lot of people don't mind a bit of racism.

Big_G_NorthWales

I agree to an extent with the headline and neither TM or Corbyn can hide behind these problems.

The mail and others are going after Amber Rudd as this was ignored by her when the problem was first passed on to her department..

However, the utterly shocking debate in the HOC yesterday was just the most abject demonstration of Corbyn's lack of desire to address the problem

On the point about TM she has apologised publicly and on camera and has determined to right the wrongs. Corbyn has done neither and doubt he will.

Sky are saying that there are 49 cases being investigated re Windrush and not the 50,000 suggested.

Sky now dealing with last nights debate with clips and an interview with John Mann

HYUFD

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

Theresa May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher, it was not so much she lost voteshare over the campaign but Corbyn gained it from minor parties

Shortly after the election was called, the Tories were consistently scoring in the high-40s, and hit 50% in one. Corbyn did indeed take share from the LDs and UKIP (though we have to assume that Con took share from UKIP too), so there must have been a direct swing from Con to Lab between late April and early June. Indeed, I know there was: people who'd given support in canvassing early on had defected by the time it came to knocking-up.

When the election was called most polls had the Tories in the early to mid 40s, May got a bounce after calling the election but the dementia tax saw some movement back to Labour but overall there was virtually no net movement from Tory to Labour from 2015 to 2017

david_herdson

rottenborough said:

Barnesian said:

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

May and Corbyn will have gone. It will be Johnson versus Thornberry.

The context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame. Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

Labour majority.

How do we end up with Corbyn gone?

Short of illness, we don't.

GIN1138

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

Theresa May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher, it was not so much she lost voteshare over the campaign but Corbyn gained it from minor parties

Shortly after the election was called, the Tories were consistently scoring in the high-40s, and hit 50% in one. Corbyn did indeed take share from the LDs and UKIP (though we have to assume that Con took share from UKIP too), so there must have been a direct swing from Con to Lab between late April and early June. Indeed, I know there was: people who'd given support in canvassing early on had defected by the time it came to knocking-up.

What was the main reason for the Con > Lab swing David?

Dementia tax? Theresa's appalling personality on show? Jezza surprising people? Jessa offering milk and honey without anyone except "the rich" having to pay for it?

Dura_Ace

HYUFD said:

Thornberry is Ed Miliband in a skirt. Let us also not forget Major won in the midst of a recession in 1992 given Kinnock was the alternative

The early 90s recession ended in the autumn of 1991; it was over by the time Major called the 1992 GE.

Ishmael_Z

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/985911633640935424


Since I know how keen PBers are to arbitrate on this matter, could a judgment be made as to whether the 9% of voters who think the Windrush children should be kicked out are racists & xenophobes?

Well, it's a pleasant advance on the 52% xenophobic liar count which we (very infrequently and intermittently) hear about on here. As always, knock off 4% for the "Have you ever been decapitated?" crowd and that leaves 5%, which is probably about the UKIP and BNP membership combined, and we knew about them anyway. Rather an uplifting statistic, then.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. NorthWales, the disparity in coverage is appalling. Hopefully numerous complaints will have persuaded Sky/the BBC that ITV got this right and, although perhaps not the top story, the anti-semitism debate is a very important one that deserves significant coverage.

ExiledInScotland

currystar said:

How you can compare the Windrush issue with what is currently happening in the Labour Party is completely beyond me. The Windrush issue is a cock up and will be sorted. Threatening to rape an MPs wife because the MP stood in solidarity with Jewish MPs getting abuse from members of their own party is a whole different level, especially when the leader of the party does nothing about it and those threatening are his most ardent supporters.

Absolutely. The militant left will clear out the unbelievers and moderates from Labour and - if they gain power - force their intolerance on us. God help us all then

Big_G_NorthWales

Barnesian said:

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

May and Corbyn will have gone. It will be Johnson versus Thornberry.

The context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame. Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

Labour majority.

I do not think you can be sure of anything at present. I expect the next conservative leader to be another woman (not Amber Rudd) and Boris days will be over and no doubt he will be editing a newspaper like Osborne

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/986535982194454529

TOPPING

Handymandy1980 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

From Red Box

Even those who know her well insist they do not know what her plans are. "Let's be honest, she is not a big sharer," says one person who has worked closely with the PM. It is possible that she hasn't decided. It's certainly true that her closest aides want to keep open the possibility of fighting another election.

Tory MPs have other ideas: "We are putting up with it now, but if there is any sign of trying to 'go on and on' after next year, there will be insurrection," one MP only elected last year said.

And

To say the last year has been a bit bumpy is the sort of understatement the prime minister would enjoy. Each time May has looked like she has got on to the front foot – seeing off a leadership challenge, slapping down rivals, securing a transition deal, ordering successful airstrikes in Syria – something happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

Well let's be very clear about this. Almost everyone has got TM completely and utterly wrong. At least Mike Smithson has had the integrity to admit it, unlike you TSE who still bleats the GO line from the increasingly isolated margins of history.

Unfortunately there's an unpleasant rump of Tories who don't like to be led by a woman. We had the same nonsense with some grandees preferring the manifestly unsuitable Heath over Maggie. TM has many of the resilient qualities of Maggie who, let it be remembered, was in deep deep deep doggy-do up until when the Argentinians gifted her a way out.

Theresa has proved remarkably strong and I fully expect her to lead the Conservatives into the next election, which I'm 90%+ certain she will win convincingly.

Mrs @HYUFD?

Dura_Ace

The tories stil have absolutely no clue how to counter Corbyn. Being antisemitic is probably a net electoral positive for him.

Barnesian

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

Barnesian said:

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

May and Corbyn will have gone. It will be Johnson versus Thornberry.

The context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame. Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

Labour majority.

How do we end up with Corbyn gone?

Short of illness, we don't.

Or voluntarily with Emily his anointed successor carrying on his policies for the many not tyhe few.

But my main point wasn't who will be leaders but that the context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame.
Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

GIN1138

Dura_Ace said:

The tories stil have absolutely no clue how to counter Corbyn. Being antisemitic is probably a net electoral positive for him.

Then it will be incumbent on all those Labour MP's who spoke and applauded during yesterday's debate to do the decent and break away from the Labour Party thus ensuring Lab's vote it split and Jezza can never become Prime Minister...

FF43

Windrush is more a symptom of the problem rather than the problem itself, although it won't seem like that to those affected. Being a symptom it's easily fixed. The "hostile immigration environment" is a man-made, or rather a Theresa May-made problem due to her prioritising a target she failed to meet over the economic well-being of the UK and basic decency and fairness. This shows May to be a flawed politician, just as Corbyn is flawed in other ways, who lacks empathy and imagination.

In my view Corbyn has problems but the anti-semitism issue is overblown. As far as I know, Corbyn doesn't discriminate against Jews at a racial level. Views of Judaism are complicated by perceptions of Israel as a state and by the fact many Jews see Israel as part of their identity. You don't have to be anti-semitic to criticise Israel, but I do believe some of the criticism is anti-semitic. You have to decide which is what. Thirdly all parties have issues with discrimination that they have to deal with. This is focusing on one issue and one party. Fourthly I am not convinced the issue has huge salience with the public. Knowing older people who have lived in the UK since childhood might be thrown out of the country or denied health treatment for failing to meet some red tape requirement is callous and clearly wrong. Whether some MP gets censured for attending a meeting isn't something people will be bothered with.

Gardenwalker

Anazina said:

Foxy etc

There is a good deal of mythology punted over New Zealand's climate, mostly by New Zealanders who are generally overly promotional about their own country, but also by Brits who have spent a few months there and got lucky. Even the East Coast is darned wet. It boasts more sunshine hours than, say, London, but at the cost of almost twice the annual rainfall.

Friends have just moved there, and it's not been a resounding success so far. Everything is very spread out; the pubs are crap or nonexistent; and even the cities require driving everywhere. It is not conducive to a good social life.

Regarding the economy, and opportunities, there are not many.

No-one can deny it has beautiful landscapes, but so does Britain, so does France, yet the downsides are manifold in NZ compared to those similar sized nations.

@RCS1000 is not far off when he calls NZ isolated. It is. It has the land area the size of the UK, with a population smaller than Scotland.

Outrageous slander.

The economy has done incredibly well over the past 10 or 15 years, and unemployment is very low. The only economic fly in the ointment (as an immigrant) is that house prices are too high. I believe it’s ranked the easiest country in the world to set up a business and also least corrupt.

NZers are very welcoming and non-judgemental. It easy to build a social network. It is true the pubs are crap though. We tend to do cafes, or BBQs by the pool.

As for the wet, it varies. But when it rains, it rains properly. Hence we actually have more sunny days, and none of this grey “non-weather” London is often afflicted with.

I do feel immensely privileged to have grown there. It’s great to be well off in the U.K. But upper working and lower middle classes would be much better off in NZ.

I’ll stop banging on now.

NorthofStoke

ExiledInScotland said:

currystar said:

How you can compare the Windrush issue with what is currently happening in the Labour Party is completely beyond me. The Windrush issue is a cock up and will be sorted. Threatening to rape an MPs wife because the MP stood in solidarity with Jewish MPs getting abuse from members of their own party is a whole different level, especially when the leader of the party does nothing about it and those threatening are his most ardent supporters.

Absolutely. The militant left will clear out the unbelievers and moderates from Labour and - if they gain power - force their intolerance on us. God help us all then

Indeed. I think that there is a growing body of opinion "on the left" that would like to scupper Corbyn and Momentum but cannot see how to do it without ensuring the next election is won by the Tories. By holding back they are playing with fire and need to fully face up to the ugly nature of the poliitical forces currently swilling around the Labour leadersip.

Big_G_NorthWales

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, the disparity in coverage is appalling. Hopefully numerous complaints will have persuaded Sky/the BBC that ITV got this right and, although perhaps not the top story, the anti-semitism debate is a very important one that deserves significant coverage.

If I am being fair I think the news cycle was against immediate coverage. They were quite rightly concentrating on the Windrush scandal, but also Corbyn's shambolic Syria debate when his mps were given instructions to vote against his own position creating utter confusion, the ongoing problem over the OPCW access to the chemical attack site in Syria, and finally the worrying news that the Salisbury nerve attack was carried out by liquid form resulting in 9 sites in Salisbury needing decontamination by 190 + military involving the lifting of large areas of paving and grass in parks taking upto Christmas to complete.

The cycle is moving on and moving onto yesterdays debate

NickPalmer

Dura_Ace said:

The tories stil have absolutely no clue how to counter Corbyn. Being antisemitic is probably a net electoral positive for him.

He isn't and it wouldn't be.

I'm not sure that either issue will be that damaging in the long term, because few really think May really set out to deprive the Windrush immigrants of basic rights, and few really think Corbyn is anti-semitic. To have an enduring impact, a scandal needs to play to prior assumptions.

david_herdson

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shhing happens to trip her up – handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, the cough, the reshuffle and now Windrush.

Each triggers passionate defence from Team May in No10, and not all of it was her fault, but if sometimes you make your own luck, you can also lose it. "Give them some credit," one senior minister tells me. "Just when you think things are going well, they will find whole new, imaginative ways to f*** it up."

It is the polls which are key for May. Thatcher and IDS were only toppled when trailing in the polls and in Thatcher's case when polling not only showed her trailing Kinnock but Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock, that is not the case for May. The Tories tie Labour in most polls and no polling suggests Boris, Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Rudd etc would do any better against Corbyn than May and in some cases they poll worse

Nah. Everyone knows Theresa May can blow 25% leads.

Theresa May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since Thatcher, it was not so much she lost voteshare over the campaign but Corbyn gained it from minor parties

Shortly after the election was called, the Tories were consistently scoring in the high-40s, and hit 50% in one. Corbyn did indeed take share from the LDs and UKIP (though we have to assume that Con took share from UKIP too), so there must have been a direct swing from Con to Lab between late April and early June. Indeed, I know there was: people who'd given support in canvassing early on had defected by the time it came to knocking-up.

When the election was called most polls had the Tories in the early to mid 40s, May got a bounce after calling the election but the dementia tax saw some movement back to Labour but overall there was virtually no net movement from Tory to Labour from 2015 to 2017

In terms of 'overall' and 'net swing', true. You only have to look at the headline vote shares to see that. But the original contention was not how she performed relative to 2015; it was how she performed relative to mid-April 2017.

edmundintokyo

I think Windrush in itself will blow over, but it's a sign of a more general problem for the government that starts with immigration but runs right through all kinds of other policy, especially with Brexit.

The tabloids have been telling them what to do, and they've done it, and now the tabloids are going to kill them for it.

Dura_Ace

GIN1138 said:

Dura_Ace said:

The tories stil have absolutely no clue how to counter Corbyn. Being antisemitic is probably a net electoral positive for him.

Then it will be incumbent on all those Labour MP's who spoke and applauded during yesterday's debate to do the decent and break away from the Labour Party thus ensuring Lab's vote it split and Jezza can never become Prime Minister...

Electoral oblivion will beckon for any splitters so unless they are complete fucking mugs, which is a distinct possibility for some of them I grant you, they will return their constituencies and prepare for government.

Big_G_NorthWales

Dura_Ace said:

The tories stil have absolutely no clue how to counter Corbyn. Being antisemitic is probably a net electoral positive for him.

No need - just leave it to his own mps as demonstrated last night

Handymandy1980

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

F

E

I

A good Tory Leader would have ensured someone as awful as Corbyn polled sub 30%

No I don't think that's a remotely accurate analysis. Corbyn, at the time and still to an extent, tapped into a massively anti-Blairite agenda that was itching to get revenge for the arrogance of that dominion. Iraq in particular incensed many on the left.

So, regardless of what you may now think of Corbyn, at the time he was hugely popular as a protest politician breaking the cosy Handy Mandy (;) consensus on the soft left.

I think it's actually quite remarkable with hindsight that the Tories didn't lose. Your beloved George would have got taken to the cleaners. It was TM's grammar school non-Notting Hill background that almost certainly saved her bacon.

Richard_Nabavi

The Windrush issue will be soon forgotten (except amongst the Guardian-reading classes, of course) for the very simple reason that people will see it for what it is: a straightforward, old-fashioned Home Office cock-up, and one which luckily can be very rapidly fixed.

It is true that it has probably kiboshed what remained of Amber Rudd's chances to become next leader, but mainly because it will be used as an excuse by those who think she's insufficiently zealous on Brexit. It's ironic, because she's actually handled it very well and very decisively.

Jeremy Corbyn's problem with anti-semitism is a little different in that it will roll on, given that he clearly hasn't got the slightest interest in doing anything about it. Still, in electoral terms it's minor in the overall scheme of things, except inasmuch as it won't be forgotten by Jewish voters. Where it might have an effect is within the PLP: those speeches in the debate yesterday by Labour MPs were absolutely astonishing; I can't recall a case where MPs have been so heartfelt in laying in to their own leadership.

NorthofStoke

FPTP provides stability where the two main parties remain within the bounds of Western democratic thinking. The current situation in the LP and the disturbing impact of the internet on political discourse is making me consider whether proportional representation maybe needed to maintain democracy. A Corbynista style party would be forced to compete against Social Democrats and centrist liberals for the centre left vote. As things currently stand I think a Momentum party would get less than 10% under PR but they may get power under FPTP because the only alternative is another 5 years of Tory government?

Foxy

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/985911633640935424


Since I know how keen PBers are to arbitrate on this matter, could a judgment be made as to whether the 9% of voters who think the Windrush children should be kicked out are racists & xenophobes?

Bearing in mind that these Windrush children are legal permanent residents, the 9% who support them anyway are clearly more than average xenophobez. They want ethnic cleansing!

currystar

NickPalmer said:

Dura_Ace said:

The tories stil have absolutely no clue how to counter Corbyn. Being antisemitic is probably a net electoral positive for him.

He isn't and it wouldn't be.

I'm not sure that either issue will be that damaging in the long term, because few really think May really set out to deprive the Windrush immigrants of basic rights, and few really think Corbyn is anti-semitic. To have an enduring impact, a scandal needs to play to prior assumptions.

Seriously after yesterdays debate how do you feel about the current state of the labour party and its membership. I really have never seen anything like what happened yesterday, it was completely extraordinairy.

rottenborough

A message to all anti-semites:

https://twitter.com/ScouseGirlMedia/status/986372508868890624

DecrepitJohnL

Richard_Nabavi said:

The Windrush issue will be soon forgotten (except amongst the Guardian-reading classes, of course) for the very simple reason that people will see it for what it is: a straightforward, old-fashioned Home Office cock-up, and one which luckily can be very rapidly fixed.

It is true that it has probably kiboshed what remained of Amber Rudd's chances to become next leader, but mainly because it will be used as an excuse by those who think she's insufficiently zealous on Brexit. It's ironic, because she's actually handled it very well and very decisively.

Jeremy Corbyn's problem with anti-semitism is a little different in that it will roll on, given that he clearly hasn't got the slightest interest in doing anything about it. Still, in electoral terms it's minor in the overall scheme of things, except inasmuch as it won't be forgotten by Jewish voters. Where it might have an effect is within the PLP: those speeches in the debate yesterday by Labour MPs were absolutely astonishing; I can't recall a case where MPs have been so heartfelt in laying in to their own leadership.

I expect voters in the families affected will remember this Windrush scandal, unless of course Theresa May has had them all deported by 2022.

The_Apocalypse

TheWhiteRabbit said:

If Jezza doesn't give us six questions about Windrush, he might as well give up and go home.

+1.

Foxy said:

steve_garner said:

Can't see Windrush being an issue if the next election is in 2022.

In 2 ways, one is Mrs May's ongoing re-toxification of the Conservative party, and the second one is the implications for other groups of migrants to Britain, particularly EU citizens.

Yes, Windrush reinforces the image of the Tories as ‘the nasty party’. Bit ironic given what May said at Conservative Party conference about people calling the Tories ‘the nasty party’ all those years ago. This discussion will continue until Windrush is resolved. Stephen Bush pointed out that the next issue could be Ugandan Asians before we even get to EU Citizens:https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/problem-generation-windrush-goes-further-any-one-minister

Richard_Nabavi

DecrepitJohnL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The Windrush issue will be soon forgotten (except amongst the Guardian-reading classes, of course) for the very simple reason that people will see it for what it is: a straightforward, old-fashioned Home Office cock-up, and one which luckily can be very rapidly fixed.

It is true that it has probably kiboshed what remained of Amber Rudd's chances to become next leader, but mainly because it will be used as an excuse by those who think she's insufficiently zealous on Brexit. It's ironic, because she's actually handled it very well and very decisively.

Jeremy Corbyn's problem with anti-semitism is a little different in that it will roll on, given that he clearly hasn't got the slightest interest in doing anything about it. Still, in electoral terms it's minor in the overall scheme of things, except inasmuch as it won't be forgotten by Jewish voters. Where it might have an effect is within the PLP: those speeches in the debate yesterday by Labour MPs were absolutely astonishing; I can't recall a case where MPs have been so heartfelt in laying in to their own leadership.

I expect voters in the families affected will remember this Windrush scandal..

I expect they will, but the numbers affected are probably tiny, and probably most of them voted Labour already.

david_herdson

Barnesian said:

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

Barnesian said:

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

May and Corbyn will have gone. It will be Johnson versus Thornberry.

The context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame. Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

Labour majority.

How do we end up with Corbyn gone?

Short of illness, we don't.

Or voluntarily with Emily his anointed successor carrying on his policies for the many not tyhe few.

But my main point wasn't who will be leaders but that the context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame.
Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

He won't go voluntarily.

1. He's being told that he's the best thing since Christ (possibly since before Christ as JC1 was, you know, J*wish). Why would he stand down amid adulation without the job even being begun, never mind finished?

2. When he does hand over, I'd expect he'd prefer a true believer. Thornberry isn't out of Corbyn's Bennite left. He might tolerate handing over to her with no better option; he won't if one option is staying on.

3. He didn't quit in 2016 when everything was really going wrong; why should we expect him to go when he's turned things round - and it was to a large extent him?

4. He doesn't head a monarchy. Even if he wanted to hand over to Thornberry, there'd be an election and the outcome wouldn't be certain. Is it worth risking the reforms for a marginal potential benefit and possibly (from the point of view of the left) irretrievable cost?

TOPPING

Handymandy1980 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

F

E

I

A good Tory Leader would have ensured someone as awful as Corbyn polled sub 30%

No I don't think that's a remotely accurate analysis. Corbyn, at the time and still to an extent, tapped into a massively anti-Blairite agenda that was itching to get revenge for the arrogance of that dominion. Iraq in particular incensed many on the left.

So, regardless of what you may now think of Corbyn, at the time he was hugely popular as a protest politician breaking the cosy Handy Mandy (;) consensus on the soft left.

I think it's actually quite remarkable with hindsight that the Tories didn't lose. Your beloved George would have got taken to the cleaners. It was TM's grammar school non-Notting Hill background that almost certainly saved her bacon.

Why did Iraq not incense anyone on the Left in 2005 or did they just hold their noses?

Big_G_NorthWales

Gardenwalker said:

Anazina said:

Foxy etc

There is a good deal of mythology punted over New Zealand's climate, mostly by New Zealanders who are generally overly promotional about their own country, but also by Brits who have spent a few months there and got lucky. Even the East Coast is darned wet. It boasts more sunshine hours than, say, London, but at the cost of almost twice the annual rainfall.

Friends have just moved there, and it's not been a resounding success so far. Everything is very spread out; the pubs are crap or nonexistent; and even the cities require driving everywhere. It is not conducive to a good social life.

Regarding the economy, and opportunities, there are not many.

No-one can deny it has beautiful landscapes, but so does Britain, so does France, yet the downsides are manifold in NZ compared to those similar sized nations.

@RCS1000 is not far off when he calls NZ isolated. It is. It has the land area the size of the UK, with a population smaller than Scotland.

Outrageous slander.

The economy has done incredibly well over the past 10 or 15 years, and unemployment is very low. The only economic fly in the ointment (as an immigrant) is that house prices are too high. I believe it’s ranked the easiest country in the world to set up a business and also least corrupt.

NZers are very welcoming and non-judgemental. It easy to build a social network. It is true the pubs are crap though. We tend to do cafes, or BBQs by the pool.

As for the wet, it varies. But when it rains, it rains properly. Hence we actually have more sunny days, and none of this grey “non-weather” London is often afflicted with.

I do feel immensely privileged to have grown there. It’s great to be well off in the U.K. But upper working and lower middle classes would be much better off in NZ.

I’ll stop banging on now.

Dont stop banging on about NZ. My eldest emmigrated with his partner to Christchurch in 2003 and we have been on several occasions. However the earthquakes had a big effect on so many, not least my son who responded and witnessed the dreadful sights of victims as he searched the wreckage with other volunteers and the emergency services.

He has in the last three years met and married a Canadian and is now living in Vancouver. However he has business connections and has been there over the last ten days and is due back in Christchurch for 3 weeks in May.

He absolutely loves NZ, has duel citizenship, and that love of the Country is shared by my wife and I. However we would not want to make the long flight there again so living in Vancouver makes it easier for us to visit him

DecrepitJohnL

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The Windrush issue will be soon forgotten (except amongst the Guardian-reading classes, of course) for the very simple reason that people will see it for what it is: a straightforward, old-fashioned Home Office cock-up, and one which luckily can be very rapidly fixed.

It is true that it has probably kiboshed what remained of Amber Rudd's chances to become next leader, but mainly because it will be used as an excuse by those who think she's insufficiently zealous on Brexit. It's ironic, because she's actually handled it very well and very decisively.

Jeremy Corbyn's problem with anti-semitism is a little different in that it will roll on, given that he clearly hasn't got the slightest interest in doing anything about it. Still, in electoral terms it's minor in the overall scheme of things, except inasmuch as it won't be forgotten by Jewish voters. Where it might have an effect is within the PLP: those speeches in the debate yesterday by Labour MPs were absolutely astonishing; I can't recall a case where MPs have been so heartfelt in laying in to their own leadership.

I expect voters in the families affected will remember this Windrush scandal, unless of course Theresa May has had them all deported by 2022.

I expect they will, but the numbers affected are probably tiny, and I doubt if many of them voted Tory.

The number affected indirectly is huge. Think of all the descendants with a ballot paper in one hand and a postcard from Granny in the other. Then add all the other groups whose status might suddenly be in doubt.

Gardenwalker

david_herdson said:

Barnesian said:

david_herdson said:

rottenborough said:

Barnesian said:

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn is not really anti Semitic, though some of his supporters maybe and May did not intemtionally try and stop Windrush migrants staying in the country, though she should perhaps have paid closer attention to ensuring the records and legal exemptions were kept that proved that.

However politically in brute terms the Jewish vote is solidly Tory and the Afro-Caribbean vote solidly Labour so I doubt it will impact much on the next general election

May will want to fix Windrush. Corbyn has no interest in fixing anti-semitism. That’s the difference

May and Corbyn will have gone. It will be Johnson versus Thornberry.

The context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame. Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

Labour majority.

How do we end up with Corbyn gone?

Short of illness, we don't.

Or voluntarily with Emily his anointed successor carrying on his policies for the many not tyhe few.

But my main point wasn't who will be leaders but that the context will be a BINO Brexit combined with a cyclical recession and the finger of blame.
Windrush and antisemitism will not feature at all.

He won't go voluntarily.

1. He's being told that he's the best thing since Christ (possibly since before Christ as JC1 was, you know, J*wish). Why would he stand down amid adulation without the job even being begun, never mind finished?

2. When he does hand over, I'd expect he'd prefer a true believer. Thornberry isn't out of Corbyn's Bennite left. He might tolerate handing over to her with no better option; he won't if one option is staying on.

3. He didn't quit in 2016 when everything was really going wrong; why should we expect him to go when he's turned things round - and it was to a large extent him?

4. He doesn't head a monarchy. Even if he wanted to hand over to Thornberry, there'd be an election and the outcome wouldn't be certain. Is it worth risking the reforms for a marginal potential benefit and possibly (from the point of view of the left) irretrievable cost?

I agree.

We’re all stuck with him until the Tories beat him at the next election.

Unless the Tories stick with May or choose Johnson as her repacement. Then we’ll be stuck with Corbyn as PM!

GIN1138

Oh look inflation falls to 2.5%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43808716

Despite Brexit, etc...

The_Apocalypse

I don’t see how Windrush is going to ‘blow over soon’. As long there continue to be more stories of unjust treatment it will continue to make headlines, not in the least because it hasn’t just outraged ‘The Guardian Reading classes’ but even the likes of The Sun and the Daily Mail. People losing their jobs, access to healthcare and being wrongly deported is hardly an obscure Westminster Village issue.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. NorthWales, I agree, and said previously that I'd understand it not being top story but that it should be near the top. BBC had it on about 25-28 minutes into the news at ten. That's not on.

Richard_Nabavi

The_Apocalypse said:

I don’t see how Windrush is going to ‘blow over soon’. As long there continue to be more stories or unjust treatment it will continue to make headlines, not in the least because it hasn’t just outraged ‘The Guardian Reading classes’ but even the likes of The Sun and the Daily Mail. People losing their jobs, access to healthcare and being wrongly deported is hardly an obscure Westminster Village issue.

Because it's easy to fix, and will be rapidly fixed.

The_Apocalypse

TOPPING said:

Handymandy1980 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

F

E

I

A good Tory Leader would have ensured someone as awful as Corbyn polled sub 30%

No I don't think that's a remotely accurate analysis. Corbyn, at the time and still to an extent, tapped into a massively anti-Blairite agenda that was itching to get revenge for the arrogance of that dominion. Iraq in particular incensed many on the left.

So, regardless of what you may now think of Corbyn, at the time he was hugely popular as a protest politician breaking the cosy Handy Mandy (;) consensus on the soft left.

I think it's actually quite remarkable with hindsight that the Tories didn't lose. Your beloved George would have got taken to the cleaners. It was TM's grammar school non-Notting Hill background that almost certainly saved her bacon.

Why did Iraq not incense anyone on the Left in 2005 or did they just hold their noses?

A lot of them voted LD.

edmundintokyo

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The Windrush issue will be soon forgotten (except amongst the Guardian-reading classes, of course) for the very simple reason that people will see it for what it is: a straightforward, old-fashioned Home Office cock-up, and one which luckily can be very rapidly fixed.

It is true that it has probably kiboshed what remained of Amber Rudd's chances to become next leader, but mainly because it will be used as an excuse by those who think she's insufficiently zealous on Brexit. It's ironic, because she's actually handled it very well and very decisively.

Jeremy Corbyn's problem with anti-semitism is a little different in that it will roll on, given that he clearly hasn't got the slightest interest in doing anything about it. Still, in electoral terms it's minor in the overall scheme of things, except inasmuch as it won't be forgotten by Jewish voters. Where it might have an effect is within the PLP: those speeches in the debate yesterday by Labour MPs were absolutely astonishing; I can't recall a case where MPs have been so heartfelt in laying in to their own leadership.

I expect voters in the families affected will remember this Windrush scandal..

I expect they will, but the numbers affected are probably tiny, and probably most of them voted Labour already.

This is true. However, if the media start looking for other sympathetic groups people fucked over by an immigration regime that was deliberately designed to fuck people over, we're talking about quite substantial numbers, and that's before you even get started on Brexit.

The_Apocalypse

Richard_Nabavi said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I don’t see how Windrush is going to ‘blow over soon’. As long there continue to be more stories or unjust treatment it will continue to make headlines, not in the least because it hasn’t just outraged ‘The Guardian Reading classes’ but even the likes of The Sun and the Daily Mail. People losing their jobs, access to healthcare and being wrongly deported is hardly an obscure Westminster Village issue.

Because it's easy to fix, and will be rapidly fixed.

We will see, given how badly the Home Office have messed up - given how badly TMay has messed up on this - I’m not holding my breathe.

currystar

GIN1138 said:

Oh look inflation falls to 2.5%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43808716

Despite Brexit, etc...

So we have record employmnet, very low unemployment, low infaltion rising wages and a booming economy, yet this Government is considered completely incompetent. Who would be a politician?

TOPPING

So perusing the Graun online front page I see that Windrush occupies a whole section (= four stories), and anti-semitism occupies zero sections (= zero stories).

Presumably the working behind this is that whereas the Windrush issue has tangibly affected people (hospital treatment foregone?), recipients of anti-semitic related abuse should just suck it up.

Danny565

This time last year....

https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

The Windrush issue will be soon forgotten (except amongst the Guardian-reading classes, of course) for the very simple reason that people will see it for what it is: a straightforward, old-fashioned Home Office cock-up, and one which luckily can be very rapidly fixed....

Perhaps.

But it, and the fairly scandalous state of immigration appeals, are the result of May's direct lead. Her illiberality on immigration and lack of concern for the results of uncompromising policies is fairly clear, as is demonstrated by the link I posted earlier this morning:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38165395
"...The measures were dropped from the Immigration Bill, with Mrs May understood to be furious."

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Richard_Nabavi said:

The Windrush issue will be soon forgotten (except amongst the Guardian-reading classes, of course) for the very simple reason that people will see it for what it is: a straightforward, old-fashioned Home Office cock-up, and one which luckily can be very rapidly fixed.

It is true that it has probably kiboshed what remained of Amber Rudd's chances to become next leader, but mainly because it will be used as an excuse by those who think she's insufficiently zealous on Brexit. It's ironic, because she's actually handled it very well and very decisively.

Jeremy Corbyn's problem with anti-semitism is a little different in that it will roll on, given that he clearly hasn't got the slightest interest in doing anything about it. Still, in electoral terms it's minor in the overall scheme of things, except inasmuch as it won't be forgotten by Jewish voters. Where it might have an effect is within the PLP: those speeches in the debate yesterday by Labour MPs were absolutely astonishing; I can't recall a case where MPs have been so heartfelt in laying in to their own leadership.

Is it just a cock up though?
We seem to be useless at deporting foreign criminals and terrorists, but go turbo charged on the Windrush generation.

TOPPING

The_Apocalypse said:

TOPPING said:

Handymandy1980 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

F

E

I

A good Tory Leader would have ensured someone as awful as Corbyn polled sub 30%

No I don't think that's a remotely accurate analysis. Corbyn, at the time and still to an extent, tapped into a massively anti-Blairite agenda that was itching to get revenge for the arrogance of that dominion. Iraq in particular incensed many on the left.

So, regardless of what you may now think of Corbyn, at the time he was hugely popular as a protest politician breaking the cosy Handy Mandy (;) consensus on the soft left.

I think it's actually quite remarkable with hindsight that the Tories didn't lose. Your beloved George would have got taken to the cleaners. It was TM's grammar school non-Notting Hill background that almost certainly saved her bacon.

Why did Iraq not incense anyone on the Left in 2005 or did they just hold their noses?

A lot of them voted LD.

LDs gained 11 seats.

Danny565

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, I agree, and said previously that I'd understand it not being top story but that it should be near the top. BBC had it on about 25-28 minutes into the news at ten. That's not on.

I love how you seem to see yourself as a neutral voice of reason.

You were one of the worst for screaming about how Sadiq Khan was "dangerous" a couple of years ago, based entirely on racist stereotypes.

The_Apocalypse

TOPPING said:

So perusing the Graun online front page I see that Windrush occupies a whole section (= four stories), and anti-semitism occupies zero sections (= zero stories).

Presumably the working behind this is that whereas the Windrush issue has tangibly affected people (hospital treatment foregone?), recipients of anti-semitic related abuse should just suck it up.

I saw this story on the front page: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/17/jeremy-corbyn-accused-of-lacking-moral-clarity-on-antisemitism?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

You have to go down though.

Pulpstar

Anazina said:

@RCS1000 is not far off when he calls NZ isolated. It is. It has the land area the size of the UK, with a population smaller than Scotland.

Sounds wonderful. I'd encourage everyone to go personally, don't want the fields behind my house getting bricked over any time soon.

DecrepitJohnL

TOPPING said:

So perusing the Graun online front page I see that Windrush occupies a whole section (= four stories), and anti-semitism occupies zero sections (= zero stories).

Presumably the working behind this is that whereas the Windrush issue has tangibly affected people (hospital treatment foregone?), recipients of anti-semitic related abuse should just suck it up.

Presumably it's all about news values and not your or CCHQ's political bias. The Telegraph online also leads on Windrush and the Times on Korea and they can't all be Corbynites. It is a good test whenever someone complains that a media outlet is pro-Tory or pro-Labour: see what all the others are doing.

The_Apocalypse

TOPPING said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TOPPING said:

Handymandy1980 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

She is most unlikely to be leading the Tories at the next election.

F

E

I

A good Tory Leader would have ensured someone as awful as Corbyn polled sub 30%

No I don't think that's a remotely accurate analysis. Corbyn, at the time and still to an extent, tapped into a massively anti-Blairite agenda that was itching to get revenge for the arrogance of that dominion. Iraq in particular incensed many on the left.

So, regardless of what you may now think of Corbyn, at the time he was hugely popular as a protest politician breaking the cosy Handy Mandy (;) consensus on the soft left.

I think it's actually quite remarkable with hindsight that the Tories didn't lose. Your beloved George would have got taken to the cleaners. It was TM's grammar school non-Notting Hill background that almost certainly saved her bacon.

Why did Iraq not incense anyone on the Left in 2005 or did they just hold their noses?

A lot of them voted LD.

LDs gained 11 seats.

Yes....they won over many on the left upset by Iraq. That’s why they did so well at that GE.

GIN1138

currystar said:

GIN1138 said:

Oh look inflation falls to 2.5%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43808716

Despite Brexit, etc...

So we have record employmnet, very low unemployment, low infaltion rising wages and a booming economy, yet this Government is considered completely incompetent. Who would be a politician?

A lot of it is perception and messaging.

The government are absolutely terrible at "selling" this economic story (not helped by the fact the Chancellor looks more like the Chief Mourner at the funeral UK PLC while the Prime Minister doesn't "do" speaking to the public....)