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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn

SystemSystem Posts: 11,016
edited April 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might now be back level pegging in voting polls but Corbyn’s leader ratings should be a cause for concern

The above the data comes from Opinium the only pollster which does at least a monthly survey of leader approval ratings which means that we have sufficient data points to identify trend. The last numbers were from fieldwork last week before Tuesdays antisemitism debate in the Commons which got a lot of very negative coverage ad helped to deflect a little from Mrs. May’s Windrush problem.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    That's what you'd call statistically significant, no messing about with MOE changes.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    And he was a one-shot phenomenon. Chances of his clawing back his losses are slim.
  • Options
    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited April 2018
    I would think the decline in JC's ratings have as much if not more to do with Salisbury, Russia, Syria and national security than anti-Semitism.

    The opprobrium heaped on Emily Thornbury by last night's QT audience when she prevaricated and obfuscated on chemical weapons was powerful.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    The leader ratings were more accurate than the main polling in 1992, 2015 and 2017 (though May still won most seats) but the main polling was better than the leader ratings in 1979 and arguably 1970 too
  • Options
    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Ishmael_Z said:

    And he was a one-shot phenomenon. Chances of his clawing back his losses are slim.

    Yes, people were prepared during/after the GE to consider their first impression may have been mistaken. Once reconfirmed, it's really hard to shake that off.

    The same goes for TMay - as she slowly claws back credibility. If she burns it again, she won't regain it.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    Ishmael_Z said:

    And he was a one-shot phenomenon. Chances of his clawing back his losses are slim.

    You're kidding, right? The attention span of a proverbial teenage/20-yr old Corbynista matches that of a snapchat selfie.

    Come the election, they'll rally back round.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    edited April 2018
    If the labour surge in 2017 was driven by younger (not 18-24 year olds) people and people who don't normally vote the could the Tory performance at the local elections be better then forecast? I mean what is the median age of people who vote in "mid term" elections compared to General Elections? Betting it would be much older and whiter which would benefit the Tories but also more Uni educated which is now becoming a more Labour group so it could be a wash?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    It's a fortnight till the local elections. What are the betting implications of JC's red ratings? Should we buy Conservatives?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT The Telegraph blames the Home Office under both parties.
    The chaos and incompetence of the Home Office is a national scandal – and has been for years
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/19/wish-surprised-windrush-scandal-home-office-has-basket-case/

  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,330
    nunuone said:

    If the labour surge in 2017 was driven by younger (not 18-24 year olds) people and people who don't normally vote the could the Tory performance at the local elections be better then forecast? I mean what is the median age of people who vote in "mid term" elections compared to General Elections? Betting it would be much older and whiter which would benefit the Tories but also more Uni educated which is now becoming a more Labour group so it could be a wash?

    The question is whether there's a change in behaviour since 4 years ago. I doubt if there's been that much, tbh.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    There really is no point of us leaving if we can't control our borders.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    nunuone said:

    If the labour surge in 2017 was driven by younger (not 18-24 year olds) people and people who don't normally vote the could the Tory performance at the local elections be better then forecast? I mean what is the median age of people who vote in "mid term" elections compared to General Elections? Betting it would be much older and whiter which would benefit the Tories but also more Uni educated which is now becoming a more Labour group so it could be a wash?

    I've been wondering about that too. The local elections could be quite useful for judging this, because ward by ward information will probably give us a sense of whether shifts in age profile or class profile are more important, or whether as you say it's a wash.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited April 2018
    nunuone said:

    If the labour surge in 2017 was driven by younger (not 18-24 year olds) people and people who don't normally vote the could the Tory performance at the local elections be better then forecast? I mean what is the median age of people who vote in "mid term" elections compared to General Elections? Betting it would be much older and whiter which would benefit the Tories but also more Uni educated which is now becoming a more Labour group so it could be a wash?

    The local elections see a higher percentage of the electorate who are pensioners or graduates than the general election certainly, that may boost Labour in London but the Tories elsewhere.

    Don't forget either Labour won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% when this year's wards were last up, so I would expect the Tories to do better this year than they will do next year on a net basis given when the 2019 wards were last up it was at the same time as the 2015 general election when the Tories led by 7%
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,376
    edited April 2018
    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/987252345749889025
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    nunuone said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    There really is no point of us leaving if we can't control our borders.
    That is EXACTLY what the Remainers want you to think.

    I would expect total free movement to end, but EU migrants would have to meet lower standards to enter the U.K. to work.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,065
    With a few people getting excited about LibDem prospects because of local byelections here are the NEVs the LibDems achieved at this round of local elections previously:

    2006 25%
    2002 25%
    1998 25%
    1994 27%
    1990 17%
    1986 26% (Alliance)
    1982 27% (Alliance)

    No figures for 2010 (the general election taking place simultaneously) or 2014 (when the LibDems were in government).

    With the exception of 1990, when the LibDems were suffering from difficulties involved in their formation, their NEVs in this round of local elections have been in the 25% to 27% range.

    Data from http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7529
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    That's a big drop in Corbyn's ratings in one month. I tend to agree with @RobinWiggs that it is more likely to be caused by Corbyn's obfuscations on Syria and Salisbury than the anti-semitism issue, but it would be interesting to have some polling data on this.

    There may also be some frustration amongst potential supporters of Corbyn that he doesn't seem to be holding the government to account in any coherent way; you can dissatified with a leader either because you don't like what he's trying to do, or because you do like it but he's not succeeding in doing it.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/987252345749889025

    I wonder who they have in mind to take his place. For all the fact that he stayed too long, I don't envy the man who has to fill those shoes.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    RoyalBlue said:

    nunuone said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    There really is no point of us leaving if we can't control our borders.
    That is EXACTLY what the Remainers want you to think.

    I would expect total free movement to end, but EU migrants would have to meet lower standards to enter the U.K. to work.
    You mean higher standards? I hope......

    TMay really is crap at negotiating, isn't she? Not that her "rivals" or Corbyn would be much better. The quality in Parliament needs improvement.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    And that’s not a bad outcome in terms of what people care about:

    More control over immigration (it’s free movement than bugs people not people coming to take up bona fide jobs), more money available (netting off a premium contribution to the specific agencies) to spend on the UK’s priorities and outside the EU’s political programme
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Blue, indeed. Trying to get us a terrible deal, then have the Grieve vote lead to another referendum "You can have the EU you rejected, or this awful deal we 'negotiated'. Up to you" could be their desired result.

    I admire Wenger's longevity. Not into football, but the short-lived managerial stints and rank ingratitude (Ranieri) is generally in stark contrast to F1, where chaps can be in charge for a long time.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,065
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    OT The Telegraph blames the Home Office under both parties.
    The chaos and incompetence of the Home Office is a national scandal – and has been for years
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/19/wish-surprised-windrush-scandal-home-office-has-basket-case/

    Indeed.

    And political point scoring from both sides gets in the way of reform.

    If people want to attack May's record as Home Secretery it shouldn't be because she wanted to be hostile to ILLEGAL immigrants (what's wrong with official hostility to illegality ?) but because the Home Office was still 'not fit for purpose' after she had been Home Secretery for six years.
  • Options
    JSpringJSpring Posts: 96
    HYUFD said:

    The leader ratings were more accurate than the main polling in 1992, 2015 and 2017 (though May still won most seats) but the main polling was better than the leader ratings in 1979 and arguably 1970 too

    To say that they were 'accurate' would imply that their sole purpose is to predict the outcome of elections. It's entirely possible that the ratings for Kinnock, Miliband and May could have been, in reality, worse than what the pollsters were showing, given how their parties all did worse than what most of the voting intention figures were suggesting. We don't know for sure because voters are not given ballots in the polling booths on whether they like the national party leaders.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Meeks, staying too long's a bit like the Peter Principle, or cutting down a quarterstaff to get the right size (you only know when you've gone too far when you've gone too far).
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/987252345749889025

    These things always happen when I’m away from home.

    I bet the numpties haven’t got a replacement signed up.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
    Who knew Dale Winton was such an astute observer of the American Primaries?

    The Conservativewoman website has just paid a tribute to him by republishing his “coming out” piece on the Donald from May 2016.

    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/a-tribute-to-dale-winton-who-got-trump-right/
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,989
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/987252345749889025

    I wonder who they have in mind to take his place. For all the fact that he stayed too long, I don't envy the man who has to fill those shoes.
    Alan "Pards" Pardew is available.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,376
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/987252345749889025

    These things always happen when I’m away from home.

    I bet the numpties haven’t got a replacement signed up.
    Rumour is that it will be either Viera or the Monaco boss

    From the Arsenal statement


    Arsenal confirm Arsene Wenger will lead the team to the end of the season and that they will make an appointment as soon as possible.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nunuone said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    There really is no point of us leaving if we can't control our borders.
    Devils in the detail but if it is a preferred work permit scheme / preference in migrant visas but where the U.K. gets to set the overall envelope that’s the UK controlling borders.

    If it’s free movement as defined at the moment (ie to look for a job but without an offer) and full access to benefits that’s entirely another matter
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    If the labour surge in 2017 was driven by younger (not 18-24 year olds) people and people who don't normally vote the could the Tory performance at the local elections be better then forecast? I mean what is the median age of people who vote in "mid term" elections compared to General Elections? Betting it would be much older and whiter which would benefit the Tories but also more Uni educated which is now becoming a more Labour group so it could be a wash?

    The local elections see a higher percentage of the electorate who are pensioners or graduates than the general election certainly, that may boost Labour in London but the Tories elsewhere.

    Don't forget either Labour won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% when this year's wards were last up, so I would expect the Tories to do better this year than they will do next year on a net basis given when the 2019 wards were last up it was at the same time as the 2015 general election when the Tories led by 7%
    Windrush, antisemitism, nerve gas attacks, bombing Syria -- will none of these things make a difference to turn-out or voting intention?
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    The problem with the term Antisemitism is that maybe a lot of people don't know what it means. I think in America a survey found 60% of millennials don't know of the Holocaust.

    Maybe we should call it Anti Jew Racism? If that term was used more people might notice the divisions within Labour and would punish Labour/Corbyn more for this stuff.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/WilliamHill/status/987256726725459968
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    That's a big drop in Corbyn's ratings in one month. I tend to agree with @RobinWiggs that it is more likely to be caused by Corbyn's obfuscations on Syria and Salisbury than the anti-semitism issue, but it would be interesting to have some polling data on this.

    There may also be some frustration amongst potential supporters of Corbyn that he doesn't seem to be holding the government to account in any coherent way; you can dissatified with a leader either because you don't like what he's trying to do, or because you do like it but he's not succeeding in doing it.

    Most people do it by collective assimilation rather than a single cause, surely. In the last month Jeremy Corbyn has looked wishy-washy, disingenuous, unleaderly and, most dangerously of all, weak. I expect a lot of people would not ascribe that view to a single news item in the last month.

    It was all unnecessary too. Labour have been developing some interesting policies to tempt the masses, but they have been crowded out by Jeremy Corbyn's own behaviour. Since he could have reached the same policy positions on Syria, Salisbury and anti-Semitism as he had while behaving differently, you have to conclude that it is something innate in the man.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,037
    Particularly like 'Know your Shyte'.

    https://twitter.com/Roy_Isserlis/status/987050171476389888
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/987252345749889025

    I wonder who they have in mind to take his place. For all the fact that he stayed too long, I don't envy the man who has to fill those shoes.
    I’m sure he’ll do as well as Fergie’s successor

    ***This post brought to you by a Spurs supporter***
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    another_richard said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    OT The Telegraph blames the Home Office under both parties.
    The chaos and incompetence of the Home Office is a national scandal – and has been for years
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/19/wish-surprised-windrush-scandal-home-office-has-basket-case/

    Indeed.

    And political point scoring from both sides gets in the way of reform.

    If people want to attack May's record as Home Secretery it shouldn't be because she wanted to be hostile to ILLEGAL immigrants (what's wrong with official hostility to illegality ?) but because the Home Office was still 'not fit for purpose' after she had been Home Secretery for six years.
    Precisely. It's a distinction which is deliberately being obscured.

    David Laws on the Today programme this morning said that the LibDems were arguing that coalition should have brought in a proper system of checks on arrivals and departures, which he claimed would have meant we didn't need the checks on employment, benefits etc. But that doesn't work, because of people already here.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    nunuone said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    There really is no point of us leaving if we can't control our borders.
    That is EXACTLY what the Remainers want you to think.

    I would expect total free movement to end, but EU migrants would have to meet lower standards to enter the U.K. to work.
    What would those lower standards be exactly? Would they need a specific skill or qualification, would they just need a job offer even if it was an unskilled low wage job, would they be eligible for welfare/tax credits/housing benefits/full NHS use immediately? And then how do we set up the systems to manage it given the administrative record of the Home office. We aren't even getting the post Brexit immigration bill until a few weeks before we leave - and that's just primary legislation not systems and detailed policies

    Having multiple systems is going to add even more complexity.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    That's a big drop in Corbyn's ratings in one month. I tend to agree with @RobinWiggs that it is more likely to be caused by Corbyn's obfuscations on Syria and Salisbury than the anti-semitism issue, but it would be interesting to have some polling data on this.

    There may also be some frustration amongst potential supporters of Corbyn that he doesn't seem to be holding the government to account in any coherent way; you can dissatified with a leader either because you don't like what he's trying to do, or because you do like it but he's not succeeding in doing it.

    Most people do it by collective assimilation rather than a single cause, surely. In the last month Jeremy Corbyn has looked wishy-washy, disingenuous, unleaderly and, most dangerously of all, weak. I expect a lot of people would not ascribe that view to a single news item in the last month.

    It was all unnecessary too. Labour have been developing some interesting policies to tempt the masses, but they have been crowded out by Jeremy Corbyn's own behaviour. Since he could have reached the same policy positions on Syria, Salisbury and anti-Semitism as he had while behaving differently, you have to conclude that it is something innate in the man.
    Yes, I think that's right. I agree it's not a single cause.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. One, that's not surprising, but it is bloody depressing.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    And that’s not a bad outcome in terms of what people care about:

    More control over immigration (it’s free movement than bugs people not people coming to take up bona fide jobs), more money available (netting off a premium contribution to the specific agencies) to spend on the UK’s priorities and outside the EU’s political programme
    You seem to be implying you think EU citizens who are not coming to work should need tourist visas.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited April 2018
    brendan16 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    nunuone said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    There really is no point of us leaving if we can't control our borders.
    That is EXACTLY what the Remainers want you to think.

    I would expect total free movement to end, but EU migrants would have to meet lower standards to enter the U.K. to work.
    What would those lower standards be exactly? Would they need a specific skill or qualification, would they just need a job offer even if it was an unskilled low wage job, would they be eligible for welfare/tax credits/housing benefits/full NHS use immediately? And then how do we set up the systems to manage it given the administrative record of the Home office. We aren't even getting the post Brexit immigration bill until a few weeks before we leave - and that's just primary legislation not systems and detailed policies.
    Don’t ask me for specifics, I’m not a minister or a civil servant! An example could be that EU migrants are subject to a lower income threshold for working visas.

    Your points about timing are wrong, because nothing would change until we exit transition in December 2020.

    If we leave at all.
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Jeremy Corbyn is bad at day to day politics. This is just a reflection of the facts of the matter.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    My wife, who has an interest in sports inversely proportional to my own, once saw an Evening Standard billboard headline "Wenger attacks Chelsea" and innocently asked her friend "What's a Wenger?"
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    If the labour surge in 2017 was driven by younger (not 18-24 year olds) people and people who don't normally vote the could the Tory performance at the local elections be better then forecast? I mean what is the median age of people who vote in "mid term" elections compared to General Elections? Betting it would be much older and whiter which would benefit the Tories but also more Uni educated which is now becoming a more Labour group so it could be a wash?

    The local elections see a higher percentage of the electorate who are pensioners or graduates than the general election certainly, that may boost Labour in London but the Tories elsewhere.

    Don't forget either Labour won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% when this year's wards were last up, so I would expect the Tories to do better this year than they will do next year on a net basis given when the 2019 wards were last up it was at the same time as the 2015 general election when the Tories led by 7%
    Windrush, antisemitism, nerve gas attacks, bombing Syria -- will none of these things make a difference to turn-out or voting intention?
    Maybe. I think a lot of tories might sit on their asses because of how incompetent TMay has been and how weak she has looked when dealing with the E.U. I don't think antisemitism will make a difference to labour voters at all. I'm sorry most voters don't think Labour are intentionally racist, Labour can get away with a level of racism in a way that Tories would be branded as worse then Nazi's by now (not saying it's fair just the reality). And his voters seem to forgive him anything.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Also, for a man who claims not to be an anti-Semitic far left fruit loop, he's been behaving remarkably like an anti-Semitic far left fruit loop.

    Still, it can actually get worse from here.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,598
    On domestic bread and butter matters, Jezza offers a radical, Socialist alternative to the Tories.

    On international affairs, he just generates a collective reaction of 'FFS'.

    Ironically, Putin could be the Tories best friend in terms of electoral success if Jezza is still in post.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    edited April 2018
    Tuchel looks far too short for next Arsenal boss as he fell out with the guy who’s now director of football at Arsenal.

    My preference is Brendan Rodgers.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    And that’s not a bad outcome in terms of what people care about:

    More control over immigration (it’s free movement than bugs people not people coming to take up bona fide jobs), more money available (netting off a premium contribution to the specific agencies) to spend on the UK’s priorities and outside the EU’s political programme
    You seem to be implying you think EU citizens who are not coming to work should need tourist visas.
    I was thinking about working rights not tourism. The latter could easily be handled through a visa waiver programme.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    And that’s not a bad outcome in terms of what people care about:

    More control over immigration (it’s free movement than bugs people not people coming to take up bona fide jobs), more money available (netting off a premium contribution to the specific agencies) to spend on the UK’s priorities and outside the EU’s political programme
    You seem to be implying you think EU citizens who are not coming to work should need tourist visas.
    UK and EU citizens have visa free travel for tourism purposes for 150 to 165 nations depending on their passport for 3 sometimes 6 months. Most of them aren't in the EU! Why exactly would we introduce visas for EU visitors coming here for a short holiday when we don't require them for citizens of Nicaragua or Vanuatu?
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Anyone paying attention to American polling? According to Harry Enten the "gold" standard polls have shown a big fall of the Dems lead whilst non gold standard polls have shown actually shown a widening in Dem lead. The difference is important for Dems as one lead would likely end up at 6.4% on polling day which would mean GOP retain control of the House.

    Special elections however are showing no tightening in the Dem lead....

    Very interesting American politics leading up to the big Midterms in November. If you are sick of Brexit everyday I suggest you tune in to that, you can avoid the trump stuff.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,524
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    another_richard said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    OT The Telegraph blames the Home Office under both parties.
    The chaos and incompetence of the Home Office is a national scandal – and has been for years
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/19/wish-surprised-windrush-scandal-home-office-has-basket-case/

    Indeed.

    And political point scoring from both sides gets in the way of reform.

    If people want to attack May's record as Home Secretery it shouldn't be because she wanted to be hostile to ILLEGAL immigrants (what's wrong with official hostility to illegality ?) but because the Home Office was still 'not fit for purpose' after she had been Home Secretery for six years.
    Precisely. It's a distinction which is deliberately being obscured.

    David Laws on the Today programme this morning said that the LibDems were arguing that coalition should have brought in a proper system of checks on arrivals and departures, which he claimed would have meant we didn't need the checks on employment, benefits etc. But that doesn't work, because of people already here.
    Neither does making life impossible for those without detailed paperwork - as the Home Office's own (apparently ignored by ministers) impact assessment predicted.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Those betting on Barnet should read this thread. Yes, it's a partisan source but note that Cllr Khatri is a deselected Conservative councillor:

    https://twitter.com/ArjunMittra/status/987082823977918464
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2018
    nunuone said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    If the labour surge in 2017 was driven by younger (not 18-24 year olds) people and people who don't normally vote the could the Tory performance at the local elections be better then forecast? I mean what is the median age of people who vote in "mid term" elections compared to General Elections? Betting it would be much older and whiter which would benefit the Tories but also more Uni educated which is now becoming a more Labour group so it could be a wash?

    The local elections see a higher percentage of the electorate who are pensioners or graduates than the general election certainly, that may boost Labour in London but the Tories elsewhere.

    Don't forget either Labour won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% when this year's wards were last up, so I would expect the Tories to do better this year than they will do next year on a net basis given when the 2019 wards were last up it was at the same time as the 2015 general election when the Tories led by 7%
    Windrush, antisemitism, nerve gas attacks, bombing Syria -- will none of these things make a difference to turn-out or voting intention?
    Maybe. I think a lot of tories might sit on their asses because of how incompetent TMay has been and how weak she has looked when dealing with the E.U. I don't think antisemitism will make a difference to labour voters at all. I'm sorry most voters don't think Labour are intentionally racist, Labour can get away with a level of racism in a way that Tories would be branded as worse then Nazi's by now (not saying it's fair just the reality). And his voters seem to forgive him anything.
    Regarding race and the parties, the popular view that the Conservatives are (or would be) harshly lambasted is surely wrong. Take our Foreign Secretary as just one example. And right now, clearly almost everyone directly affected by Windrush is Black but while Theresa May and others have been attacked as heartless or incompetent, I've not seen it splashed across the front pages that they are racist. We've moved beyond that, which is to our credit.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,376
    tlg86 said:

    Tuchel looks far too short for next Arsenal boss as he fell out with the guy who’s now director of football at Arsenal.

    My preference is Brendan Rodgers.

    Rafa Benitez should be your guy.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987261145202462720
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunuone said:

    If the labour surge in 2017 was driven by younger (not 18-24 year olds) people and people who don't normally vote the could the Tory performance at the local elections be better then forecast? I mean what is the median age of people who vote in "mid term" elections compared to General Elections? Betting it would be much older and whiter which would benefit the Tories but also more Uni educated which is now becoming a more Labour group so it could be a wash?

    The local elections see a higher percentage of the electorate who are pensioners or graduates than the general election certainly, that may boost Labour in London but the Tories elsewhere.

    Don't forget either Labour won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% when this year's wards were last up, so I would expect the Tories to do better this year than they will do next year on a net basis given when the 2019 wards were last up it was at the same time as the 2015 general election when the Tories led by 7%
    Windrush, antisemitism, nerve gas attacks, bombing Syria -- will none of these things make a difference to turn-out or voting intention?
    It's the economy, stupid.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,598
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tuchel looks far too short for next Arsenal boss as he fell out with the guy who’s now director of football at Arsenal.

    My preference is Brendan Rodgers.

    Rafa Benitez should be your guy.
    Oi! Hands off wor Rafa!
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tuchel looks far too short for next Arsenal boss as he fell out with the guy who’s now director of football at Arsenal.

    My preference is Brendan Rodgers.

    Rafa Benitez should be your guy.
    His odds are actually a bit tempting.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,376
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987261145202462720

    https://twitter.com/barculator/status/987262116179701761?s=21
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited April 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/WilliamHill/status/987256726725459968


    What about Sean Dyche of Burnley

  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    brendan16 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    nunuone said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    There really is no point of us leaving if we can't control our borders.
    That is EXACTLY what the Remainers want you to think.

    I would expect total free movement to end, but EU migrants would have to meet lower standards to enter the U.K. to work.
    What would those lower standards be exactly? Would they need a specific skill or qualification, would they just need a job offer even if it was an unskilled low wage job, would they be eligible for welfare/tax credits/housing benefits/full NHS use immediately? And then how do we set up the systems to manage it given the administrative record of the Home office. We aren't even getting the post Brexit immigration bill until a few weeks before we leave - and that's just primary legislation not systems and detailed policies.
    Don’t ask me for specifics, I’m not a minister or a civil servant! An example could be that EU migrants are subject to a lower income threshold for working visas.

    Your points about timing are wrong, because nothing would change until we exit transition in December 2020.

    If we leave at all.
    We may be in transition but presumably we won't want to be waiting until New Year's Eve on 31 December 2020 to register 3 million EU nationals for their settled status? The Home office seems to struggle with a few hundred Windrush cases - let alone proving how long millions of EU nationals have been here and when they arrived - will they need to provide airline boarding passes as proof of first arrival?!

    As for doing 'bona fide' work - fine - but what does that mean and does that mean they are eligible for full access to our welfare system and the NHS and social housing system and housing benefit and tax credits? Sorry if these issues of minor detail matter but surely we should be wanting skilled people who will be net contributors overall wherever they are from - not a system whereby the taxpayer ends up paying out far more to support them than we receive in return.

    I accept those are the sort of 'Nazi policies' Lord Kerslake would disapprove of but it is what most developed nations outside the EU take into account.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    brendan16 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    brendan16 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    nunuone said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    That is EXACTLY what the Remainers want you to think.

    I would expect total free movement to end, but EU migrants would have to meet lower standards to enter the U.K. to work.
    What would those lower standards be exactly? Would they need a specific skill or qualification, would they just need a job offer even if it was an unskilled low wage job, would they be eligible for welfare/tax credits/housing benefits/full NHS use immediately? And then how do we set up the systems to manage it given the administrative record of the Home office. We aren't even getting the post Brexit immigration bill until a few weeks before we leave - and that's just primary legislation not systems and detailed policies.
    Don’t ask me for specifics, I’m not a minister or a civil servant! An example could be that EU migrants are subject to a lower income threshold for working visas.

    Your points about timing are wrong, because nothing would change until we exit transition in December 2020.

    If we leave at all.
    We may be in transition but presumably we won't want to be waiting until New Year's Eve on 31 December to register 3 million EU nationals for their settled status? The Home office seems to struggle with a few hundred Windrush cases - let alone proving how long EU nationals have been here and when they arrived - will they need to provide boarding passes as proof of first arrival?!

    As for doing 'bona fide' work - fine - but what does that mean and does that mean they are eligible for full access to our welfare system and the NHS and social housing system and housing benefit and tax credits? Sorry if these issues of minor detail matter but surely we should be wanting skilled people who will be net contributors overall wherever they are from - not a system whereby the taxpayer ends up paying out far more to support then than we receive in return. I accept those are the sort of 'Nazi policies' Lord Kerslake would disapprove of but it is what most developed nations outside the EU take into account.
    The same as Americans with a work permit get - “no recourse to public funds”.

    In practice they get the NHS but nothing else
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    And that’s not a bad outcome in terms of what people care about:

    More control over immigration (it’s free movement than bugs people not people coming to take up bona fide jobs), more money available (netting off a premium contribution to the specific agencies) to spend on the UK’s priorities and outside the EU’s political programme
    You seem to be implying you think EU citizens who are not coming to work should need tourist visas.
    I was thinking about working rights not tourism. The latter could easily be handled through a visa waiver programme.
    Then how do you propose to stop people looking for work?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    And that’s not a bad outcome in terms of what people care about:

    More control over immigration (it’s free movement than bugs people not people coming to take up bona fide jobs), more money available (netting off a premium contribution to the specific agencies) to spend on the UK’s priorities and outside the EU’s political programme
    You seem to be implying you think EU citizens who are not coming to work should need tourist visas.
    I was thinking about working rights not tourism. The latter could easily be handled through a visa waiver programme.
    Then how do you propose to stop people looking for work?
    Same as now.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    And that’s not a bad outcome in terms of what people care about:

    More control over immigration (it’s free movement than bugs people not people coming to take up bona fide jobs), more money available (netting off a premium contribution to the specific agencies) to spend on the UK’s priorities and outside the EU’s political programme
    You seem to be implying you think EU citizens who are not coming to work should need tourist visas.
    I was thinking about working rights not tourism. The latter could easily be handled through a visa waiver programme.
    Then how do you propose to stop people looking for work?
    Same as now.
    I.e. you don’t.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,889
    "In fact in all recent elections when the voting polls got it wrong the leader ratings were better pointers. "

    Funny that. In every game that Manchester United let in more goals than they scored, their opponents won the game.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/987254413784944640
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    .

    'Then how do you propose to stop people looking for work?'

    How do we stop tourists from Nicaragua - who get visa free travel here - from working? Ignoring our huge informal economy it does seem possible to have systems for non EU nationals so why not EU ones too in terms of entitlement to work here.

    Nothing stopping any UK citizen 'looking' for work in Canada or Australia - but unless they get a skilled working visa and or permanent residency approved by the respective National or state/provincial governments they won't be successful?

    What other nations seem to manage with ease just seems impossible for us to grasp as being possible at all?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,915
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Those betting on Barnet should read this thread. Yes, it's a partisan source but note that Cllr Khatri is a deselected Conservative councillor:

    https://twitter.com/ArjunMittra/status/987082823977918464

    Not bet on Barnet, but good to see future cashflows for my Capita punt.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:


    We are back to where we were last Autumn, with the EU feeding negative process stories to their friends in the British media. Let’s see what is actually agreed, rather than what the EU side want us to believe.

    This is really about working through the contradictions of Brexit than it is about deals. We will end up in our final arrangement because the alternatives are unacceptable to us and not because that was the outcome of negotiations. We will probably end up as a client state of the EU because we need that relationship with the EU and we voted against being an active member influencing the decisions that affect us.
    You mean that the EU is a prison, or a Hotel California that we can never actually leave?

    As I noted earlier, hopefully this is the same sort of scaremongering we saw last year, and that behind the scenes the adults in the room are negotiating in good faith to secure a mutually-agreeable solution.
    "We are all just prisoners here, of our own device" as that song puts it. Brexiteers' device, not mine, I should add. We're making choices. If we reject our best choice, everything else logically is suboptimal. Or else we are actually choosing to be prisoners Hotel California style, on your definition, and that is the best choice as people perceive it.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,876
    edited April 2018
    brendan16 said:



    'Then how do you propose to stop people looking for work?’

    How do we stop tourists from Nicaragua - who get visa free travel here - from working? Ignoring our huge informal economy it does seem possible to have systems for non EU nationals so why not EU ones too in terms of entitlement to work here.

    Nothing stopping any UK citizen 'looking' for work in Canada or Australia - but unless they get a skilled working visa and or permanent residency approved by the respective National or state/provincial governments they won't be successful?

    What other nations seem to manage with ease just seems impossible for us to grasp as being possible at all?

    It’s very simple, if you have the right to work you have an NI number - without which you can’t be on anyone’s payroll.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,709
    nunuone said:

    Anyone paying attention to American polling? According to Harry Enten the "gold" standard polls have shown a big fall of the Dems lead whilst non gold standard polls have shown actually shown a widening in Dem lead. The difference is important for Dems as one lead would likely end up at 6.4% on polling day which would mean GOP retain control of the House.

    Special elections however are showing no tightening in the Dem lead....

    Very interesting American politics leading up to the big Midterms in November. If you are sick of Brexit everyday I suggest you tune in to that, you can avoid the trump stuff.

    538
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,814
    another_richard said:

    With a few people getting excited about LibDem prospects because of local byelections here are the NEVs the LibDems achieved at this round of local elections previously:

    2006 25%
    2002 25%
    1998 25%
    1994 27%
    1990 17%
    1986 26% (Alliance)
    1982 27% (Alliance)

    No figures for 2010 (the general election taking place simultaneously) or 2014 (when the LibDems were in government).

    With the exception of 1990, when the LibDems were suffering from difficulties involved in their formation, their NEVs in this round of local elections have been in the 25% to 27% range.

    Data from http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7529

    I've found the 2014 NEV figures for you, here: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP14-33/RP14-33.pdf

    2014: Con 30, Lab 31, LD 11, Others 28 (of which UKIP 18)

    The swing will be from that election, so hopefully this will be useful.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/987231061930323969

    FPT.

    How about:
    Customs union with U.K. aligning to EU regulatory standards (hence no hard border in Ireland or at Dover)
    Preference for EU migrants over others in exchange for financial market access for U.K. firms and U.K. piggy-backing on EU trade deals
    Cut in U.K. financial contribution
    U.K. membership of key agencies (EASA etc.)

    This is the result we were always going to get without decapitating the Remainer establishment, as Cummings intended.
    Roughly like this, I think. The devil will be in the detail. We may need to trade financial services for some control over freedom of movement.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
    Yesterday I stumbled upon the BBC series "Putin, Russia and the West".
    It's a must for anyone interested in geopolitics imo.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Tennis: ah, start times were local not UK. So the first match has been ongoing for nearly an hour. As it stands, both bets are on, and at least one will come off (Dimitrov won the first set but Goffin is 4-1 up in the second).
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. W, not seen that, but there was a recent BBC three part series about the changes Crown Prince Thingummyjig are making in Saudi Arabia. It was quite interesting (rather Brave New World[ish], with more commercial/social freedom but, if anything, even less political freedom).
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tuchel looks far too short for next Arsenal boss as he fell out with the guy who’s now director of football at Arsenal.

    My preference is Brendan Rodgers.

    Rafa Benitez should be your guy.
    Wouldn’t complain if we got him, but depressingly I don’t think he’d go for it, and I can’t teally blame him.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Nigelb said:

    Neither does making life impossible for those without detailed paperwork - as the Home Office's own (apparently ignored by ministers) impact assessment predicted.

    So do nothing, which is what happened for decades and what got us into this mess in the first place.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    Brexit bill expected to increase:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/20/brexit-divorce-bill-will-surpass-39bn-warns-whitehall-watchdog

    Is today the day to dump bad Brexit news?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,037
    One of today's WTF pieces of news.

    https://twitter.com/catalannews/status/987273821320351744
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Divvie, that's... unexpected.

    Ciutadans is the new centrist party, right?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tuchel looks far too short for next Arsenal boss as he fell out with the guy who’s now director of football at Arsenal.

    My preference is Brendan Rodgers.

    Rafa Benitez should be your guy.
    Wouldn’t complain if we got him, but depressingly I don’t think he’d go for it, and I can’t teally blame him.
    The shame for him is that he always wanted to win the CL and when he got the chance to do so, first Jens (ish), then Thierry, and then Freddie (albeit what a save) let him down.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Theuniondivvie said:

    One of today's WTF pieces of news.

    The Saakashvili of western politics.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Particularly like 'Know your Shyte'.

    https://twitter.com/Roy_Isserlis/status/987050171476389888

    The energy drink 'Pussy' - was advertised in Singapore with cardboard cut outs of young men holding cans and asking 'I've tasted Pussy - Have You?'...even the notoriously strait-laced Singaporeans twigged the double entendre.....

    http://www.marketing-interactive.com/asas-calls-out-pussy-energy-drink-advertiser-for-advertising-code-breach/
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    This video has some really interesting info that the Guardian hasn't covered in regards to Facebook / CA (the first 10 mins is just history of Facebook stuff, it is after that where it gets interesting),

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXC_I7nOGlQ
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,037
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Divvie, that's... unexpected.

    Ciutadans is the new centrist party, right?

    More or less, but very Unionist. They seem almost as keen on locking up wrongthink Catalans as PP.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Miss Vance, a car called the Pinto [I believe, read about it a few years ago] sold poorly in South America. The makers couldn't work out why.

    It turned out 'pinto' also means 'small penis' in the local tongue. So it may as well have been called the Nissan Microdick.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,876
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, not seen that, but there was a recent BBC three part series about the changes Crown Prince Thingummyjig are making in Saudi Arabia. It was quite interesting (rather Brave New World[ish], with more commercial/social freedom but, if anything, even less political freedom).

    Mohammed bin Salman. The New Yorker did a good long read piece on him, and Arab politics in general, a week or two ago.
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,223
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tuchel looks far too short for next Arsenal boss as he fell out with the guy who’s now director of football at Arsenal.

    My preference is Brendan Rodgers.

    Rafa Benitez should be your guy.
    Wouldn’t complain if we got him, but depressingly I don’t think he’d go for it, and I can’t teally blame him.
    It would be a gamble given his lack of managerial experience but Thierry Henry seems to me the obvious choice for Arsenal. He is intelligent, articulate when commenting on games and has the charisma to attract big name players. Given the rebuilding that is required for Arsenal's squad the last in absolutely key.

    Plus, it would prevent ManC from having the coolest manager in the league which is a win win for me.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Cheers for that, Mr. Sandpit.

    Cheers, Mr. Divvie.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,876
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Vance, a car called the Pinto [I believe, read about it a few years ago] sold poorly in South America. The makers couldn't work out why.

    It turned out 'pinto' also means 'small penis' in the local tongue. So it may as well have been called the Nissan Microdick.

    There’s a few of them in the car world. A Vauxhall Nova was called the Opel Corsa when they sold it in Spain, as Nova means “doesn’t go” in Spanish.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Days since Labour latest antisemitism scandal... 0...

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/20/producer-labours-race-row-election-broadcast-tweeted-jewish-kapos/
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Vance, a car called the Pinto [I believe, read about it a few years ago] sold poorly in South America. The makers couldn't work out why.

    It turned out 'pinto' also means 'small penis' in the local tongue. So it may as well have been called the Nissan Microdick.

    There’s a few of them in the car world. A Vauxhall Nova was called the Opel Corsa when they sold it in Spain, as Nova means “doesn’t go” in Spanish.
    the proposal to follow up the Vespa scooter with the Ape was also deprecated.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Gardenwalker said:

    Brexit bill expected to increase:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/20/brexit-divorce-bill-will-surpass-39bn-warns-whitehall-watchdog

    Is today the day to dump bad Brexit news?

    Every day is a day for bad Brexit news.

    There is no good news in Brexit.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,193
    Today's entry for 'irony is dead' award.

    Owen Jones, a full-time Corbyn cultist, has spent the whole morning complaining the media is a cult afflicted by group-think.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/987229001151369216

    You couldn't write this stuff as comedy and get away with it frankly.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,709
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Vance, a car called the Pinto [I believe, read about it a few years ago] sold poorly in South America. The makers couldn't work out why.

    It turned out 'pinto' also means 'small penis' in the local tongue. So it may as well have been called the Nissan Microdick.

    There’s a few of them in the car world. A Vauxhall Nova was called the Opel Corsa when they sold it in Spain, as Nova means “doesn’t go” in Spanish.
    the proposal to follow up the Vespa scooter with the Ape was also deprecated.
    Rolls Royce 'Silver Mist'
    https://www.driving.co.uk/news/test-your-knowledge-what-forced-rolls-royce-into-a-rethink-over-the-name-silver-mist/
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Borough, Twain once said that reality was stranger than fiction, because fiction had to make sense.
This discussion has been closed.