Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs need a good day in next week’s locals just to show tha

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited April 24 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs need a good day in next week’s locals just to show that they are still in the game

We are now three years on from the end of the Coalition and it is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue. For the Lib Dems next week’s local elections are an opportunity to show that they are starting to recover at least at local level.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,741
    No, because they are a load of alien lizards who are trying to destroy civilisation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,653
    preparation for government intensifies?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,176
    Gah. Just 'lost' some posts, on Chrome on a PC that has never done this before.

    This is becoming blooming annoying.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,086
    There’s a London poll coming out later this week, apparently:

  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,440
    LibDems (Very Occasionally) Winning Here
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,129
    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,285
    This is an interesting article from a year ago:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/06/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-labour-conservative-brexit-jewish/530046/

    It is especially interesting as it mentions that mural. I didn't know people were aware of it at the time of the election (I certainly wasn't).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,964
    There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,270
    tlg86 said:

    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.

    The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.

    Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,964
    What the Lib Dem’s really need is to start rebuilding local strength in the seats that Cameron plundered in 2015 to get his majority. If the Lib Dem’s are ever going to become a national force again they need to have a base from which to grow. I just see this as being very difficult for them when the Tories are in the low 40’s and their supporters are motivated by fear of Corbyn.
    They may return but not this time around.
  • JackW said:

    LibDems (Very Occasionally) Winning Here

    Normally Spinning Here
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,244
    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,142
    DavidL said:

    There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?

    Local people betting?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,216

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,765
    DavidL said:

    There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?

    I tipped up the 5-4 here. We shall see if I'm right shortly.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,151
    DavidL said:

    There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?

    The LibDems pioneered the tactic of placing bets to simulate (and stimulate) momentum.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,900
    edited April 24
    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Some of them were, some of them were not.

    That may be a part of the problem
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,967
    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,538
    edited April 24
    The LDs were everything to everyone. They represented the purity and perfection that neither of the other parties could ever achieve.

    Once that ideal came into contact with reality, however, it was always a certainty that everyone would be disappointed. Turns out they were just like every other political party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,270

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.

    Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,374

    tlg86 said:

    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.

    The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.

    Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
    One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.

    Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,142
    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!

    Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.

    Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,142

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.

    Lamb is fine, just been on the Today programme:

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,625
    DavidL said:

    There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?

    One thing that we have to be aware of at the moment is that postal votes are being returned and in many cases the party campaigns will get a sense of how well they think they are doing. This is all highly illegal but generally the people running campaigns in local areas do know whether a surprise or change might be on the cards
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,508
    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    I think a significant part of their vote saw them as left wing and were deeply disappointed by the coalition govt.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,216
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!

    Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.

    Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
    I disagree - in many ways they were largely soft left with a bit of a run at the Labour refuseniks.

    The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,216
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    I think a significant part of their vote saw them as left wing and were deeply disappointed by the coalition govt.
    That’s my guess - especially the anti-war Labour voters.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,660
    Winchester might be a gain.

    Oddly, the Conservatives no longer have a single seat in Watford borough, despite holding the Parliamentary seat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,788
    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.

    Lamb is fine, just been on the Today programme:

    That sounds positive on health and social care, although the difficulty is going to be to get all parties agreed on the susbstance of the proposals at the end of the process.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,142
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!

    Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.

    Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
    I disagree - in many ways they were largely soft left with a bit of a run at the Labour refuseniks.

    The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset
    They do appear as soft left to Tories of course, and as soft right to Labour. That is pretty much the political definition of centrism.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,967
    Dr. Foxy, cheers for that good news.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,285
    edited April 24

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.

    Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.
    His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'

    The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time as caretaker leader.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,216
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!

    Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.

    Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
    I disagree - in many ways they were largely soft left with a bit of a run at the Labour refuseniks.

    The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset
    They do appear as soft left to Tories of course, and as soft right to Labour. That is pretty much the political definition of centrism.
    All those lefties who left the party because they were shocked they did a deal with the Torres? They didn’t see the LDs as soft right when they voted for them.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,964

    DavidL said:

    There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?

    One thing that we have to be aware of at the moment is that postal votes are being returned and in many cases the party campaigns will get a sense of how well they think they are doing. This is all highly illegal but generally the people running campaigns in local areas do know whether a surprise or change might be on the cards
    That’s exactly what I was wondering Mike. The problem is differentiating between activist optimism and hard data.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,957
    edited April 24
    The LDs got 18% in the County Council elections compared to 13% at the 2014 Locals so really should be able to increase their voteshare, especially in strongly Remain SW London and areas like Kingston upon Thames and Richmond Park.

    In the Home Counties they are also playing the NIMBY card and opposing any development and new housing in the greenbelt and countryside and indeed in a number of brownbelt sites too as I know as I am currently challenging the LD incumbent in my ward in Essex.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,935
    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Some. Many supporters appeared to have been labour-lite.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,270

    tlg86 said:

    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.

    The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.

    Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
    One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.

    Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
    That’s a very fair point.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,788
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Certainly so, but without the naked ambition and control freakery of New Labour. No one with ambition for national government joins the Lib Dems!

    Centrist politics at the moment has been side-lined by Brexit rejectionists. Just as Labour has changed as a result of waves of Corbynite members, and the Tories have taken off their mask and embraced down-market kipperism, the Lib Dems have to cope with a doubled membership, an influx of enthusiastic, but rather mono-maniac recruits.

    Local politics is a way to restore sanity to all.
    I disagree - in many ways they were largely soft left with a bit of a run at the Labour refuseniks.

    The issue was that they were effectively a collection of regional parties (eg pro Brexit in Cornwall and Devon). They never really made the transition to a national mindset
    They do appear as soft left to Tories of course, and as soft right to Labour. That is pretty much the political definition of centrism.
    All those lefties who left the party because they were shocked they did a deal with the Torres? They didn’t see the LDs as soft right when they voted for them.
    And all those in favour of Brexit (or of democracy) who have seen the LDs dominated by those trying to overturn the referendum result above all else.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,964
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Some. Many supporters appeared to have been labour-lite.
    Which was a perfectly good fit under Kennedy. He of course also attracted large numbers of Labour supporters opposed to the Iraq war. Clegg was and is more soft right. He takes things like the deficit seriously. The arithmetic gave him no choice but I never really doubted that he was a lot more comfortable with Cameron than Brown. Under the notional leadership of Cable it is hard to work out where they are.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,493
    Morning all from North Wales, where the weather at least is very Lib Dem in nature.

    Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.

    I still don’t really see what leverage the ERG has, as May would win a confidence vote easily. It is manifestly not in the national interest to do anything that might precipitate a Corbyn premiership, so they can’t resign the whip or vote for no confidence in the Government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,957
    edited April 24

    tlg86 said:

    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.

    The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.

    Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
    One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.

    Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
    Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,935
    RoyalBlue said:

    Morning all from North Wales, where the weather at least is very Lib Dem in nature.

    Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.
    .

    I was thinking the same thing - I'd assumed the Gov would have the votes, but he's always been a hard brexit is the only real Brexit kind of chap, and to move away from stories on Corbynistas surely shows some concern.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,660
    RoyalBlue said:

    Morning all from North Wales, where the weather at least is very Lib Dem in nature.

    Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.

    I still don’t really see what leverage the ERG has, as May would win a confidence vote easily. It is manifestly not in the national interest to do anything that might precipitate a Corbyn premiership, so they can’t resign the whip or vote for no confidence in the Government.

    Corbyn is May's best friend.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 21,700
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,229
    Morning all :)

    Well, nice to see a thread about the LDs and so many people wishing the Party well and thinking they aren't too bad...

    Yeah, right.

    In terms of London, the best result would be to end the night controlling Kingston, Richmond and Sutton. That hasn't happened as often as you might think - I can only think of 1994-98 and 2006-10 when all three Boroughs were under LD control at the same time. Beyond that, rather as with the Conservatives, it's going to be a case of trying to hold back the Labour onslaught in a few Wards here and there.

    Outside London, I don't know. I would be looking to see signs of recovery in existing and previous areas of strength. I'd like to think South Lakeland would be held and a few other gains in other places.

    Oddly enough, the next time these seats are contested "could" be alongside the GE.

    The current "Councils" score in London is LAB 20, CON 9, LD 1, NOC 2.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 16,186
    edited April 24
    RoyalBlue said:

    Morning all from North Wales, where the weather at least is very Lib Dem in nature.

    Guido seems to be getting rather hot under the collar about this customs union business. That makes me think a change in policy post a Commons vote is highly likely.

    I still don’t really see what leverage the ERG has, as May would win a confidence vote easily. It is manifestly not in the national interest to do anything that might precipitate a Corbyn premiership, so they can’t resign the whip or vote for no confidence in the Government.

    Welcome to our beautiful North Wales.

    Guido does seem to be demanding TM puts her Premiership on the line but I doubt she will as the maths simply do not add up and by sacrificing herself it would prove a pointless exercise as no other conservative leader could confound the inevitability of the end result.

    TM is stubborn and will continue to demand we leave the customs union but once it becomes apparent to all she will respond by accepting the will of the HOC and do the deal accordingly and receive overwhelming HOC and HOL support leaving the hard Brexiteers shouting from the roof tops but frankly with complete impotency
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,660
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.

    The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.

    Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
    One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.

    Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
    Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general election
    London is the exception.

    Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,569
    Morning all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 44,957
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.

    The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.

    Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
    One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.

    Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
    Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general election
    London is the exception.

    Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.
    Apart from London yes but that is largely down to opposition to Brexit and social change and as you suggest has been matched by swings to the Tories in Leave areas like East Anglia and the Midlands
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,609
    While following up this story about one of the least attractive politicians of the post Thatcher era I came accross this. All the allure of a Jackal nuzzling a hyena

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/865192/Brexit-news-UK-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party-Liz-Truss-second-referendum-BBC-video
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,569
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,968
    Roger said:

    While following up this story about one of the least attractive politicians of the post Thatcher era I came accross this. All the allure of a Jackal nuzzling a hyena

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/865192/Brexit-news-UK-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party-Liz-Truss-second-referendum-BBC-video
    “The risk is that staying in the Customs Union is that Fox and Johnson resign.”

    Surely that’s a benefit?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,609
    Anazina said:

    Roger said:

    While following up this story about one of the least attractive politicians of the post Thatcher era I came accross this. All the allure of a Jackal nuzzling a hyena

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/865192/Brexit-news-UK-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party-Liz-Truss-second-referendum-BBC-video
    “The risk is that staying in the Customs Union is that Fox and Johnson resign.”

    Surely that’s a benefit?
    I have to pinch myself before I can believe that 52% of my fellow countrymen and women lined up behind these lizards.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,766
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.

    Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.
    His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'

    The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time as caretaker leader.
    The problem is that the heir apparent is a culture warrior, more interested in gender issues than “radical centrism”.

    Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,766
    The Lib Dems face an existential test of relevance up to and through the next election.

    Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 4,142

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.

    Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.
    His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'

    The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time as caretaker leader.
    The problem is that the heir apparent is a culture warrior, more interested in gender issues than “radical centrism”.

    Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.
    Tim Farron shouldn't have resigned.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,660

    The Lib Dems face an existential test of relevance up to and through the next election.

    Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.

    Lord Rennard is a strong campaigner.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,688
    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,967
    Mr. Roger, the vote was on leaving or remaining in the EU. It wasn't about voting Leave if you like Boris and Remain if you like Gerry Adams.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,609
    edited April 24

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,321
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.

    Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.
    His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'

    The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time as caretaker leader.
    The problem is that the heir apparent is a culture warrior, more interested in gender issues than “radical centrism”.

    Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.
    Tim Farron shouldn't have resigned.
    Ideally he would have converted
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,229

    The Lib Dems face an existential test of relevance up to and through the next election.

    Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.

    Glad to see you like the Party and have confidence in it !

    Plenty of reasons why it makes no difference who the LD leader is at this time. Vince is fine as a caretaker for now.

    May and Corbyn are, as we can see on here, hugely polarising figures. The fear or should that be stark terror of a Corbyn-led Government holds the Conservatives together and prevents much fragmentation (may be different at a local level). On the other side, those desperate to see the end of the Conservatives for whatever reason recognise Corbyn is the only game in town.

    The LDs have "form" with the Conservatives and can't be "trusted". Thus politics is frozen in glacis while Corbyn is Labour leader. Replacing May with A.N Other or S.O Else won't make a lot of difference to the Conservative numbers.

    Remove Corbyn and a lot will start to change - picking the "right" leader (and Labour is not without talent on its front and back benches) would make May look out of place and out of touch. As both Blair and Wilson discovered, the key to Labour winning is to make Labour look modern and relevant and make the Conservatives look irrelevant and dated.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,609
    edited April 24
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a yellow myself but it does feel like they're becalmed so long as Cable is leader. Speaking of which, I do hope Lamb's recovering well.

    Cable spends most of his time at his house in Brockenhurst in the New Forest, so far as I understand.
    His political career seems to have turned into a Norwegian Orange. 'If you hadn't nailed him to the perch, he'd be pushing up the daisies.'

    The difference is that nobody is trying to persuade us of his energy and stamina. Even the Liberal Democrats have given up on that. Surely the local elections mark the end of his time as caretaker leader.
    The problem is that the heir apparent is a culture warrior, more interested in gender issues than “radical centrism”.

    Naiveté - chiefly Clegg’s - destroyed the Lib Dems. Ironically, Clegg himself would now be the best option as leader if he were available.
    Tim Farron shouldn't have resigned.
    Edit. Misread what you wrote. Yes he made a mistake. Also over his apology. Macron has shown the way
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,894
    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Have you ever thought of becoming a political advisor, Roger?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 7,247
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Its amazing really just how much Nick Clegg destroyed the party. That we have to have a thread about are the Lib Dems still in the game demonstrates how broken they are. All this talk about a new centre party - a decade ago the Lib Dems still had scale and a voice and would have been talking about bring at the centre of any new bigger movement. Not any more...

    Although were they really centrist in anything but perception?
    Some. Many supporters appeared to have been labour-lite.
    Which was a perfectly good fit under Kennedy. He of course also attracted large numbers of Labour supporters opposed to the Iraq war. Clegg was and is more soft right. He takes things like the deficit seriously. The arithmetic gave him no choice but I never really doubted that he was a lot more comfortable with Cameron than Brown. Under the notional leadership of Cable it is hard to work out where they are.
    Surely a centrist party that hopes to compete electorally must be able to attract both the soft left and the soft right ?
    Without a strong leader, I suppose internecine squabbling over minor differences is unavoidable, though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,270
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.

    The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.

    Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
    One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.

    Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
    Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general election
    London is the exception.

    Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.
    But, some of the swings in East Sussex and other parts of the South East to Labour last year were truly shocking.

    Upended everything I thought I knew about the UKs political geography.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 16,186
    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,660
    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,321
    I think May's motivations pretty much directly conflict with her party's. For May to hang on after 2019, it would be very helpful for her for Brexit to drag on. Maybe not the actual technical moment of leaving, but having various loose ends that need to be tied in the transition period would help make an argument for continuity.

    On the other hand, for the electoral prospects of the Tories, the sooner they put Brexit behind them, the better. It's extremely divisive both among their politicians and their voters. Arguably the only thing keeping the centre from fleeing away from Corbyn towards then is the remainer antipathy towards the Tories (I know a few people here find this baffling, given that Labour also backs Brexit, but it is nonetheless the case).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,733
    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    A reasonable set of figures demonstrate the OBR to be somewhat out, but not horrifically so.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,660

    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves
    The mental picture did make chuckle, though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,086
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    There are a series of very big movements in the betting here. Is anything objective driving these changes or is it just a response to the bets placed? There has been nothing in the national polling to justify such moves, it has been pretty static. How did the Lib Dems move from 5/4 to 1/3 in Sutton, for example?

    I tipped up the 5-4 here. We shall see if I'm right shortly.
    I'm very happy to be on this bet.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,675
    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    Isn't that about £7bn lower than Hammond forecast in his Budget ?

    As a percentage of GDP it will be the lowest since 2002.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,264
    edited April 24
    On topic, that is one fcuked up bar chart.



    I'm so old I remember the days when LD bar charts were coherently dishonest.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,609

    Mr. Roger, the vote was on leaving or remaining in the EU. It wasn't about voting Leave if you like Boris and Remain if you like Gerry Adams.

    If a movement is led almost exclusively by a rag tag of racists fascists and opportunists it's reasonable to wonder whether it's for you. Moreover if their publicity material is overtly racist it's reasonable to expect non racists to have nothing to do with it. Otherwise you're no different to those who joined the Nazi Party because they wanted the trains to run on time.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,675

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    [I]t is 8 years since tuition fees were a big issue.

    I hate to break this to you Mike, but I think tuition fees were quite a big issue at last year's general election.

    The Lib Dems have effectively transferred the blame for tuition fees to the Tories by virtue of their 2015GE wipeout.

    Labour are picking up the national votes, which is ironic given they introduced fees in the first place.
    One thing Ed Miliband struggled with was the balance between defending Labour's record in government, but moving on from the parts of that record that were unpopular.

    Corbyn doesn't have that problem for obvious reasons. It's one of his strengths.
    Though one of his weaknesses is of those who voted for Blair from 1997-2005 then switched to Cameron in 2010 very few would consider Corbyn Labour. Hence although he has squeezed the vote of the minor left-wing and populist parties behind him to get to 40% he still faces a Tory Party which got 42% at the last general election
    London is the exception.

    Elsewhere, yes. There are a lot of seats, in the Home Counties, East Anglia, and Midlands, which saw huge swings to Labour under Blair, followed by huge swings to the Tories.
    But, some of the swings in East Sussex and other parts of the South East to Labour last year were truly shocking.

    Upended everything I thought I knew about the UKs political geography.
    Housing.

    Why would people vote Conservative if they can't afford to own a house where they live and when a Conservative government encourages ever higher house prices.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,859
    Lib Dems need to learn to love Cable.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,733

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    A reasonable set of figures demonstrate the OBR to be somewhat out, but not horrifically so.
    A fall of 7.6% in the deficit, year on year, in cash terms. More like 10% in real terms and 12.5% in GDP terms (very approximately).

    Incidentally I think the OBR must have revised up their growth forecasts
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,609

    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves
    Sorry I should have said '....stop being naughty'
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,967
    Mr. Roger, that's as reasonable as suggesting everyone who voted to Remain supported Irish terrorism.

    Shouting "racist" is no substitute for a coherent argument. If Remain had considered that, if Cameron hadn't wibbled about "Little Englanders", they would've, as widely expected, won.

    As for fascists, that's an entertaining claim given you've just opined Corbyn should tell Jewish leaders to **** off.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,733

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    Isn't that about £7bn lower than Hammond forecast in his Budget ?

    As a percentage of GDP it will be the lowest since 2002.
    It's about £2.5bn lower than the OBR figures Hammond read out last month in the Spring Statement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,660
    Roger said:

    Mr. Roger, the vote was on leaving or remaining in the EU. It wasn't about voting Leave if you like Boris and Remain if you like Gerry Adams.

    If a movement is led almost exclusively by a rag tag of racists fascists and opportunists it's reasonable to wonder whether it's for you. Moreover if their publicity material is overtly racist it's reasonable to expect non racists to have nothing to do with it. Otherwise you're no different to those who joined the Nazi Party because they wanted the trains to run on time.
    I doubt if Johnson, Gove, and Hoey are The Third Reich Reborn.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,675

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    A reasonable set of figures demonstrate the OBR to be somewhat out, but not horrifically so.
    But out the opposite way to which they have traditionally have been.

    Or perhaps it was just a coincidence that they repeatedly predicted a better outcome than the out-turn while George Osborne was Chancellor :wink:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,733

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    A reasonable set of figures demonstrate the OBR to be somewhat out, but not horrifically so.
    But out the opposite way to which they have traditionally have been.

    Or perhaps it was just a coincidence that they repeatedly predicted a better outcome than the out-turn while George Osborne was Chancellor :wink:
    That switch happened in about 2014/15, IIRC - so not all down to the Genius.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,675

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    Isn't that about £7bn lower than Hammond forecast in his Budget ?

    As a percentage of GDP it will be the lowest since 2002.
    It's about £2.5bn lower than the OBR figures Hammond read out last month in the Spring Statement.
    And about £16bn lower than the OBR forecast in Hammond's March 2017 Budget.

    The OBR were rather behind the curve this year.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,438

    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves

    Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?

    By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,788
    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,479
    Judging by the PSF figured I'd guess that GDP for Q1 was about 0.3%, a definite slowdown compared to last year in tax take. However, it looks like things are picking up again towards the end of the quarter.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,675
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves

    Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?

    By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
    Did Corbyn criticize Gordon Brown for calling for "British Jobs For British Workers" ?

    I ask because I don't recall any Labour MPs complaining at the time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 16,186
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves

    Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?

    By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
    I am not pompous Tyson - I just do not like unnecssary bad language which in almost every case deminishes the argument.

    And the attack is coming from the labour benches with the recent debate witnessing the distress of labour mps, some in tears, and most of them support remain

    We just need to be kinder to one another
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,660
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves

    Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?

    By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
    It's inevitable that Labour's opponents will use this as a stick to beat the party with.

    But, a lot of unhappiness over this issue comes from within Labour.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,216
    Sean_F said:

    The Lib Dems face an existential test of relevance up to and through the next election.

    Is there anyone in the Lords who would do a better job as Leader? They need a media friendly leader with smart ideas and fire in their belly, and if one cannot be found in the HoC they should look to the Lords.

    Lord Rennard is a strong campaigner.
    Goes down well with women I understand
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,733
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.
    £2 per person per day.

    You can make the number look big or small.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,476
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves

    Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?

    By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
    When he only takes a principled stand against some sorts of racism and ignores or takes a more lenient line against other sorts - consistently - that is in itself not only racist but hypocritical to boot.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,479

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.
    £2 per person per day.

    You can make the number look big or small.
    £3.50 per working age person/day
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,476
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.
    You make that sound like a bad thing.

    Actually, it is a bad thing, though not as bad as you imply. As long as the debt-to-GDP ratio is stable or falling over the economic cycle, or already low, there's not a problem - and a nominal 2.1% deficit would be sustainable on that basis. The problems are (1) that the ratio has increased enormously since this point in the last cycle, so even if the structural deficit had closed, it would need to be brought into a structural surplus to undo that damage; and (2) at this stage in the cycle, the government should really be running at balance or even a small surplus - though at least it's better than the 3% deficit Brown was running.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,733
    edited April 24
    Incidentally in six out of the last seven years, the ONS has over-estimated borrowing in its April assessment, i.e. when we look back in a year's time we may no longer believe we borrowed £42bn this year.

    In four cases substantially (~£5bn); in the other two and the one where it underestimated it, the margin was <£2bn.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,823
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jewish leaders need to tell Corbyn that actions speak louder fhan words. Anything he might say is not to be trusted.

    Corbyn needs to tell these Jewish "LEADERS" to fu*k off. They have an agenda and it's nothing to do with anti-semitism.

    PS and while they're at it perhaps they should check how many Labour 'Friends of Israel" have had free trips there.
    Words fail me. Why do the hard left resort to foul language to try to justify themselves

    Please do not be pompous.....and do you really think using the word fuck is just the preserve of lefties?

    By the way I completely agree with Roger's insight into all this. The worst thing about the Anti Semite smokescreen is seeing all those genuine racists and odious types, the pbCOMers who slavishly support Brexit, the ones who reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism using this to attack Corbyn..someone who has time and time again taken a principled stand against racism...
    Are there posters on this site who "reek of xenophobic, little Englander racism" to you? If so, I am amazed you'd want to spend time here.

    Has Corbyn time and time again taken a principled stand against racism? I'd be interested to see some concrete examples. My strong impression is that he doesn't give much of a toss either way about it, and that in the specific case of anti-semitism he is so strongly anti-Zionist that he is never going to question too closely the motives of anyone on the same side as him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,788
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Public borrowing for 2017/18 was £42.6 bn, 2.1% of GDP. Current expenditure was just about in surplus.

    Woo, so the government is only spending £116,393,443 more than it is receiving in taxes. Every single day.
    £2 per person per day.

    You can make the number look big or small.
    £3.50 per working age person/day
    Or half an hour’s work at minimum wage, per working age person, per day. Not to pay for government spending, but to pay for their overspending.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,901

    Incidentally in six out of the last seven years, the ONS has over-estimated borrowing in its April assessment, i.e. when we look back in a year's time we may no longer believe we borrowed £42bn this year.

    In four cases substantially (~£5bn); in the other two and the one where it underestimated it, the margin was <£2bn.</p>

    And OBR have been even further out.
This discussion has been closed.