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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB and the LDs must be hoping to move up the BBC National vote share projection next week – with the Tories edging down
We are only 8 days away from the May local elections which at the moment looks as though will be the most significant UK electoral test that we will have during 2018.
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I spent some time in California two weeks ago. To put in context, my wife is from Los Angeles and we visit twice a year to visit her family who are staunch Democrats. I have been making that trip for over 20 years.
I have to say that, obvious though it sounds, this was the most polarised I have ever seen both the TV and national news. You could take the same information and both sides will give you diametrically opposing interpretations. Neither side had much good to say about the other.
One thing about the whole Mueller investigation that has not had much reporting over here is that, for Republicans and the Trump fans, the real story about Mueller is not about Russian collaboration but how the evidence allegedly points to the "Deep State" trying to overthrow Trump and how the Obama administration used the FBI and CIA to hand victory to Clinton and then tried to overthrow Trump when he won. That is energising the Republican base in favour of Trump.
Two US betting implications I thought of.
1. I think Republican turnout will be high. The consensus view is that there will be a blue wave but, apart from the generic Congress polls have been tightening, the Trump fan base looks very incentivised to come out and vote to defend their man. I don't know whether the Arizona 8th voting is a sign of that given the early trends.
2. I don't for the life of me see how Democrat senators in places like West Virginia, Montana, Indiana or Missouri are going to survive. Regardless of how good or popular they are, people are just taking sides and saying you are either with us or against us. I am sure someone will produce a poll saying Democrat senators are hanging on in places like that but I really do not see it. The mood has just become so polarised that people are not going to cross-vote
Merseyside socialists 5
Italian communists 0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Manchin
I can't see Manchin losing in WV.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Manchin
I know what you mean and, in any ordinary year, I would say that is right. I just do not see it this time round. Even if you are like Manchin, you are viewed by Trump supporters as the enemy.
Should have been 8-0, now Roma just need to repeat their feats of the last round.
I'm not sure the Republican/Trump base is as energized as TheKitchenCabinet reckons, and I think the Democratic base is way more energized: they're mad as hell and want blood.
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/988879013417508864
When you're so dependent upon attacking play disrupting your forward line risks losing all your momentum.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/22/ethnic-purging-french-stars-and-dignitaries-condemn-antisemitism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Manchin
Particularly as the Republican candidate is likely to be the CEO of a coal company that has an appalling safety record.
I'm not sure the Republican/Trump base is as energized as TheKitchenCabinet reckons, and I think the Democratic base is way more energized: they're mad as hell and want blood.
Happy to have a £1 Gentleman's Bet
' En route to the ground, United’s bus was pelted with missiles, and once inside, McLean encountered “the worst atmosphere of any football match I have ever attended, and that includes any Rangers and Celtic game”. Among the banners included ones reading “GOD CURSE DUNDEE UNITED”, “McLEAN FUCK OFF” and “ROMA HATES McLEAN HE’S A CUNT”.
Kick-off was cunningly scheduled for the afternoon, the scorching heat uncommon in Dundee at that time of year, and United weren’t at it: by half-time, the deficit had been wiped out before, on 58 minutes, Agostino Di Bartolomei scored the penalty which sent Roma through. Then, at full time, McLean was attacked by Roma players and officials, though the majority of punches were absorbed by John Gardiner, his reserve goalie, and Walter Smith, his famously tidy assistant. '
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/19/the-forgotten-story-of-dundee-united-glory-years-under-jim-mclean
(((Dan Hodges))) - @DPJHodges: So we’ve now reached the point where Labour front-benchers are accusing the leaders of the Jewish community of lying about their meeting with Corbyn. How much longer are decent Labour MPs and members going to put up with this.
spineless muppets with no moral compass in the main - with obvious exceptions
Sounds like Corbyn's meeting was an absolute clusterf*** of epic proportions. What a surprise.
Nice
Scream racist at the other lot and ignore a growing problem in your own ranks.
Is that what it means to be a progressive?
I see nothing to be happy about in that, but it is how I think it will go.
Worrying too
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/24/canadian-woman-told-to-leave-uk-margaret-obrien
We badly need a better funded social care system. The costs are all showing up in the NHS.
Oh - that was just another load of bollocks to try and move on.
Mr Corbyn said he had had a "positive and constructive" meeting.
because even if we accept purely for the sake of argument that the Jewish Leadership Council and Board of Deputies are being a little harsh in their analysis of the meeting, that they have made the statement they have, justified or not (again, purely for the sake of argument) indicates it cannot have been a positive and constructive meeting no matter what Corbyn thinks.
Positive and constructive meetings don't end with that kind of statement.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43887223
I ask because the Guardian has been obsessed by it:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/apr/24/tsb-online-banking-troubles-uk-public-finances-business-live
But an interesting blast from the past was discovering Zammo from Grange Hill now has a key cutting business in South London. He once met Nancy Reagan.
But if any govenment did that there would be a deafening claims of cuts to the NHS.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/988889813704159233
Well Mr Hodges, the answer is about two years and counting.
They are having a laugh aren't they? Two years iirc it is now.
https://www.ft.com/content/e6c08ebe-0d47-11e7-a88c-50ba212dce4d
I think the predominant U.K. public mindset is not so much imperial as hegemonic; we are the centre of the world and what we think matters.
Only this can explain the absurdity of hundreds of MPs sounding off about the launch of 8 missiles, carried by 4 aircraft, which are going out of service next year.
I think victory in the Falklands conflict is a big factor in its persistence. If we had lost, with thousands of casualities and the loss of dozens of ships, it would have been our Algeria.