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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After all the wait the YouGov London local poll has just margin of error changes
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Am I missing something? What is wrong with removing people who are here illegally exactly? It's mental.
#Kaboom
So a minor tick down for Labour. 22% lead compared to the 13% lead they had in 2014.
I'll say it again: Why are Labour's odds slipping in Barnet? If they hit 20%+ lead across the capital they are very likely indeed to take the two seats they need there.
@spreadsheetben
2m2 minutes ago
Contact rates in London by...
Party / Inner LDN / Outer LDN:
Con: 17 / 27
Lab: 38 / 31
LDem: 15 / 12
Grn: 5 / 4
(YouGov/Mile End Institute poll)
https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/989456377792942085
@spreadsheetben
13m13 minutes ago
Ben Walker Retweeted Britain Elects
Inner London subsample (containing Wandsworth/Westminster) has gone from Lab 67 Con 17 (Feb) to Lab 58 Con 25 (Apr). Hm.
https://twitter.com/spreadsheetben/status/989454560560369664
Rest of the country will be more "mixed" of course.
The average house price to earnings ratio has hit 7.77, up from 7.6 in 2016 and the highest in the official time series going back to 2002
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/989459499227459585
Labour's problem in Westminster, Kensington, and Wandsworth, is that their support is concentrated in relatively few wards.
@election_data
6m6 minutes ago
Polling in London at this point in 2014 :
LAB 44 (now 51)
CON 31 (now 29)
LD 11 (now 11)
UKIP 10
GRN 2
Results in London in 2014 were:
LAB 37.4
CON 26.1
LD 10.2
UKIP 10.0
GRN 9.6
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/989460354097958912
Tory lead in 2014 Locals: 2%
Tory lead in 2015 General: 11%
Tory lead in 2017 General: 2%
Tory lead in 2018 Locals: ???
I'm not saying it is certain, but unless the dynamics of local elections have changed significantly in Barnet in the last 5 years (and given Labour remain in opposition and the Tories remain in power, I don't see why they would) the Tory position last year is in line with a Labour majority in Barnet this year.
May local election polls: Tories trail Labour by 22 points in London
But exclusive poll shows Theresa May could cling on in Wandsworth and Westminster
Seamus must suspect keeping Rudd in place is a better move.
Surely the headlines should be:
May trails Labour by 22 points in London
But exclusive poll shows Tories could cling on in Wandsworth and Westminster
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/989419323495153664
The more interesting question: Alexander for Mayor 2020? Or 2024?
(Obviously I would still expect Khan to contest - and win)
And Bill Clinton got away with quite a lot with Hillary Clinton too.
I can remember when you could make a call for 2p!
EDIT: or, failing that, you could ask the operator to reverse the charges, if you were prepared to face the storm of parental wrath that would greet you when the call was connected...
Not sure I'd class her as a Blairite? She is "neutral but not hostile"!
2010 Locals (Barnet): 11% Tory lead
2010 General (Barnet): 14% Tory lead
Obviously we can't be certain, since polls can be wrong and voter behaviours change over time. But every poll and election available suggests Barnet voters are more Labour-leaning in locals than generals - and that the current position should be enough for Labour to take the borough. I'm not saying they should be 1/10, but they aren't even 1/2 now! When polling and previous elections point to a Labour gain they should be solid favourites.
Even in my twenties I felt old when an 18-year-old colleague describe as VHS as "what, one of those thick DVDs". My copy of the Lion King is a prized possession.
He said the two levers/aces up their sleeves are the budget contributions for the UK and NI for the EU.
He said that the reaching of an FTA between the EU and the UK was less likely than people think but that one likely will be reached which will be good for goods, less good for services and least good for financial services.
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/989455371189223424
But on this they are right. Your example doesn't make sense.
When I hire a company - I am paying for all of those benefits like holiday and sick leave.
When I hire a self-employed person I pay a rate which effectively includes any holiday or sick leave the self-employed person takes.
But at the moment - the self-employed person will appear artificially cheaper because the employer gets stung with more national insurance.
This change would have hurt the self-employed certainly. But only by reducing the significant tax advantage that they currently receive. And perhaps more significantly - it would reduce the incentive for the pretend self-employed who do this for tax reasons.
Does the poll adjust for likely turnout though?
(I think the first IBM PC with a hard drive, the PC XT, cost around $5000 versus $1500 for the essentially identical model without...)
Presumably the BOD will be organising an Anti Tory rally immediately
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/6147867/wembley-sold-fa-fulham-owner-shahid-khan-nfl/
Wembley to be sold off, and potentially the Jacksonville Jaguars will shortly be the London Jaguars.
If that's been argued successfully then all government targets should be abolished immediately. If not then the complaint is nonsense.