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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

The machinations in the Conservative Party about Brexit and Windrush has set off a little bit of a flurry of betting on the next party leader market which is currently the busiest UK politics market on Betfair.

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TheScreamingEagles

Gove has pissed off too many people to become Tory Leader.

TheScreamingEagles

Plus Gove has had some truly dire polling with the public

Danny565

Say hello to Prince Louis....

Philip_Thompson

I hope so.

Gove is an incredibly smart communicator. It was his piece declaring for Leave that got me to start thinking and eventually switch from Remain to Leave.

He's also someone unafraid to tackle and address the big issues and comes from the best tradition of liberal Conservativism. I'd be delighted if he gets it.

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

Gove is an incredibly smart communicator. It was his piece declaring for Leave that got me to start thinking and eventually switch from Remain to Leave.

You're going to love his piece declaring for Remain next time.

AlastairMeeks

*obligatory betting boast* (NB these will not necessarily be provided when bets don't look so clever)

I have him covered from odds of 30-40 from last year. I certainly wouldn't bet against him at current odds.

Jacob Rees-Mogg looks like a ridiculous false favourite to me. He hasn't spent a minute in government and we're expected to believe that he might take over as next Prime Minister? The Conservatives will be even more batshit mental than I think they are if they even contemplate the idea.

Richard_Nabavi

He is very articulate and engaging, but as TSE says he's made lots of enemies. He's a possibility, but my hunch is that the gig will go to someone less divisive.

AlastairMeeks

Danny565 said:

Say hello to Prince Louis....

Louis Louis, oh no.

Foxy

Danny565 said:

Say hello to Prince Louis....

Unlikely to be King but:

https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/989809961915043842?s=19

I had a pound on that, so lunch is sorted!

Morris_Dancer

FPT: F1: Bottas topped the session, Ricciardo 2nd. Verstappen might've been a shade better in the standings had he not smashed his car.

Congrats, Dr. Foxy.

Edited extra bit: Ricciardo just 0.03s off top spot. Bit irksome.

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

*obligatory betting boast* (NB these will not necessarily be provided when bets don't look so clever)

I have him covered from odds of 30-40 from last year. I certainly wouldn't bet against him at current odds.

Jacob Rees-Mogg looks like a ridiculous false favourite to me. He hasn't spent a minute in government and we're expected to believe that he might take over as next Prime Minister? The Conservatives will be even more batshit mental than I think they are if they even contemplate the idea.

People are backing Mogg on the precedent of Corbyn becoming Leader of the Opposition and Trump becoming President.

They're forgetting that Corbyn would never have made it into the Top 2 with MPs, nor Trump the top 2 with the GOP Congress using the Tory election method.

EDIT: Especially not in office rather than in opposition.

Foxy

Richard_Nabavi said:

He is very articulate and engaging, but as TSE says he's made lots of enemies. He's a possibility, but my hunch is that the gig will go to someone less divisive.

Yes, while I quite like Goves intellect and liberalism, he does rather like plotting and intrigue. He has acquired a few enemies that way I suspect. He can also be rather Quixotic too, but is probably the least unpleasant of the Tory Leavers.

SandyRentool

I think that Gove would be better for the country than any of the other Brexiteer contenders. However, wearing my partisan Labour hat* I would rather face the Moggster at the next GE.

*I do not actually own a Labour hat. Or a flat cap either.

rottenborough

Foxy said:

Danny565 said:

Say hello to Prince Louis....

Unlikely to be King but:

https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/989809961915043842?s=19

I had a pound on that, so lunch is sorted!

Rats, I had money on Arthur, which is his new middle name. Also Edmund as a wild outsider.

rottenborough

Peston has had an early lunch?

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/989807492891926528

Richard_Nabavi

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Borough, Edmund would've been great for the Blackadder jokes. I didn't bet, but would've gone for Arthur (my late grandpa's name, which did provide the winner for the 2017 Grand National).

rkrkrk

Richard_Nabavi said:

He is very articulate and engaging, but as TSE says he's made lots of enemies. He's a possibility, but my hunch is that the gig will go to someone less divisive.

He may not run.
I suspect if another strong contender offers him chancellor he'd back them.

Recidivist

He'd be the perfect candidate to get us out of Brexit.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Borough, that's a charitable perspective.

rkrkrk

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

Some sizeable discrepancies with betfair there.
Gove is at 13.5, Rudd and Leadsom at 24...

HHemmelig

SandyRentool said:

I think that Gove would be better for the country than any of the other Brexiteer contenders. However, wearing my partisan Labour hat* I would rather face the Moggster at the next GE.

*I do not actually own a Labour hat. Or a flat cap either.

I think Labour would be pretty happy to face Gove in a GE. Ed Miliband showed how hard it is for weird looking leaders to win general elections. And that's in addition to Gove's mountain of damaging baggage, as an avid Brexiteer who pissed off the entire teaching profession.

The identity of the leading contenders for next Tory leader highlight why May will be Prime Minister for as long as she wants to be. There isn't a single one of the top 5 current contenders who wouldn't be a totally unsuitable election loser.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

If almost everyone's either right or too short except Hunt/Javid then where's the rest of the value?

Jonathan

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

Justine Greening?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Thompson, Mordaunt

rkrkrk

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SNIP

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

Justine Greening?

Just backed her at 259/1 on betfair!

geoffw

Heard the 12 year old Moggster on R4 this morning in an interview for which he had to claim his £18 fee from the BBC. A celeb for 37 years!
Do his odds reflect that puffery?

HYUFD

Gove has an approval rating of -67%, not going to happen

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Michael_Gove

williamglenn

Richard_Nabavi said:

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

No Penny Mordaunt?

Richard_Nabavi

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

Justine Greening?

Shadsy has her at 100/1 for next leader, 125/1 for next PM. Probably value, but there are other long-shots also possible.

Gardenwalker

A thread for Fox-sceptics (I think that’s all of us?)

https://twitter.com/tony_nog/status/989818809036038144?s=21

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

*obligatory betting boast* (NB these will not necessarily be provided when bets don't look so clever)

I have him covered from odds of 30-40 from last year. I certainly wouldn't bet against him at current odds.

Jacob Rees-Mogg looks like a ridiculous false favourite to me. He hasn't spent a minute in government and we're expected to believe that he might take over as next Prime Minister? The Conservatives will be even more batshit mental than I think they are if they even contemplate the idea.

When has Corbyn spent a minute in government?

rottenborough

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

Justine Greening?

Shadsy has her at 100/1 for next leader, 125/1 for next PM. Probably value, but there are other long-shots also possible.

Isn't she in danger of losing her seat?

HYUFD

SandyRentool said:

I think that Gove would be better for the country than any of the other Brexiteer contenders. However, wearing my partisan Labour hat* I would rather face the Moggster at the next GE.

*I do not actually own a Labour hat. Or a flat cap either.

The Moggster has an approval rating of -38% with Yougov, 29% higher than Gove's

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Jacob_Rees_Mogg

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

If almost everyone's either right or too short except Hunt/Javid then where's the rest of the value?

Some value in the other long-shots (Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss, for example).

Morris_Dancer

With both myself and Mr. Glenn suggesting Mordaunt, it's clear she's a unifying figure

Gardenwalker

rkrkrk said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

Some sizeable discrepancies with betfair there.
Gove is at 13.5, Rudd and Leadsom at 24...

Dufficult to disagree with the Nabavi appraisal there. Gove is way too hot though. Second favourite? Gove? Give over.

Pulpstar

I've backed the yellows, reds AND blues in London now

Lib Dem - Sutton Maj
Labour - Barnet Maj
Tories - Westminster & Wandsworth (Both Maj)

Jonathan

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

Justine Greening?

Shadsy has her at 100/1 for next leader, 125/1 for next PM. Probably value, but there are other long-shots also possible.

Isn't she in danger of losing her seat?

A possible wielder of he knife. Was treated badly.

Danny565

HHemmelig said:

SandyRentool said:

I think that Gove would be better for the country than any of the other Brexiteer contenders. However, wearing my partisan Labour hat* I would rather face the Moggster at the next GE.

*I do not actually own a Labour hat. Or a flat cap either.

I think Labour would be pretty happy to face Gove in a GE. Ed Miliband showed how hard it is for weird looking leaders to win general elections. And that's in addition to Gove's mountain of damaging baggage, as an avid Brexiteer who pissed off the entire teaching profession.

The identity of the leading contenders for next Tory leader highlight why May will be Prime Minister for as long as she wants to be. There isn't a single one of the top 5 current contenders who wouldn't be a totally unsuitable election loser.

Yeah, honestly I think Gove would do worse than Rees-Mogg as leader.

Agree with your second paragraph too - I still see nobody, save possibly Ruth Davidson, who would be more of an electoral asset in the Mansfields of the world than May is.

DecrepitJohnL

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was hoping to do a piece on the runners and riders, but I don't think I'll have time. Instead, here's a quick summary of my take on the main contenders in the market (odds from Ladbrokes, Next Con Leader market, obviously you can get more on Next PM).

In this I'm assuming an orderly transition during this parliament, which pretty much guarantees that the next leader will be a current cabinet-level minister, or just conceivably ex-minister. You'd need to adjust these comments if you think Theresa May will lead the party into the next election, or if there's a chaotic transfer in crisis.

Jacob Rees-Mogg 7/2: Far, far too short. A clear lay. The party can't be that dumb, surely?
Michael Gove 5/1: A bit short, but possible
Boris 10/1: About right
Amber Rudd 16/1: About right
Andrea Leadsom 16/1: Far too short
Jeremy Hunt 16/1: Too long. Keep this one in your portfolio.
Dominic Raab 20/1: Too short
Ruth Davidson 20/1: She ain't standing, she ain't eligible, and she's pregnant. No chance.
Gavin Williamson 25/1: Where's his support? Too short
James Cleverly 33/1: Is he experienced enough to leap over the others? About right, or a bit short
Phillip Hammond 33/1: Too many enemies, and doesn't shine in presentation. About right.
Tom Tugendhat 33/1: Too short, not experienced enough
David Davis 50/1: Possible value at those odds
Matt Hancock 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Priti Patel 50/1: I'd want higher odds
Sajid Javid 50/1: Outstanding value - why is everyone overlooking him?

Of the rest, I'd keep Esther McVey in the portfolio (66/1).

If almost everyone's either right or too short except Hunt/Javid then where's the rest of the value?

Some value in the other long-shots (Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss, for example).

The long-shots outside the cabinet do not represent value, unless and until you know they are about to get promoted. Otherwise they are best left alone until the starting gun is fired.

Gardenwalker

What odds Javid v Khan, 2027?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Walker, I'm inclined to agree, but with this sort of thing the electorate must be considered. Who would MPs either actively back or seek to prevent reaching the final two? Who would the membership back or actively oppose (as per Ken Clarke and Iain Duncan Smith)?

I'd suggest being inoffensive is helpful in the MP regard, and having red meat to throw helpful for the membership (unless you're up against an I Love The EU candidate, in which case you only need be the alternative). But others here know the Conservatives very well and can perhaps offer better guidance.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Walker, Javid's got a great backstory but the only interview I recall seeing of him was underwhelming.

HYUFD

Danny565 said:

HHemmelig said:

SandyRentool said:

I think that Gove would be better for the country than any of the other Brexiteer contenders. However, wearing my partisan Labour hat* I would rather face the Moggster at the next GE.

*I do not actually own a Labour hat. Or a flat cap either.

I think Labour would be pretty happy to face Gove in a GE. Ed Miliband showed how hard it is for weird looking leaders to win general elections. And that's in addition to Gove's mountain of damaging baggage, as an avid Brexiteer who pissed off the entire teaching profession.

The identity of the leading contenders for next Tory leader highlight why May will be Prime Minister for as long as she wants to be. There isn't a single one of the top 5 current contenders who wouldn't be a totally unsuitable election loser.

Yeah, honestly I think Gove would do worse than Rees-Mogg as leader.

Agree with your second paragraph too - I still see nobody, save possibly Ruth Davidson, who would be more of an electoral asset in the Mansfields of the world than May is.

Gove is the Tory Ed Miliband, Rees-Mogg is the Tory Corbyn

Pulpstar

Gardenwalker said:

What odds Javid v Khan, 2027?

Will Khan still be there 2027 ?!

Gardenwalker

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, I'm inclined to agree, but with this sort of thing the electorate must be considered. Who would MPs either actively back or seek to prevent reaching the final two? Who would the membership back or actively oppose (as per Ken Clarke and Iain Duncan Smith)?

I'd suggest being inoffensive is helpful in the MP regard, and having red meat to throw helpful for the membership (unless you're up against an I Love The EU candidate, in which case you only need be the alternative). But others here know the Conservatives very well and can perhaps offer better guidance.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Walker, Javid's got a great backstory but the only interview I recall seeing of him was underwhelming.

I too found Javid underwhelming initially.
But I’ve been more impressed of late. Or perhaps, everyone else is so rubbish it makes him look better.

He’s an Osborne-ite, but without the weaselling.
What’s not to like?

AlastairMeeks

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

*obligatory betting boast* (NB these will not necessarily be provided when bets don't look so clever)

I have him covered from odds of 30-40 from last year. I certainly wouldn't bet against him at current odds.

Jacob Rees-Mogg looks like a ridiculous false favourite to me. He hasn't spent a minute in government and we're expected to believe that he might take over as next Prime Minister? The Conservatives will be even more batshit mental than I think they are if they even contemplate the idea.

When has Corbyn spent a minute in government?

Jeremy Corbyn, like David Cameron and Tony Blair before him, aims to take office through electoral heft. Theresa May's Conservative replacement, if it takes place while the Tories are in office, will have no such mandate. The Conservatives are not just choosing a leader in such circumstances, they are imposing a Prime Minister on the nation. It would be irresponsible in the extreme to choose someone without any electoral sanction who has no experience at all.

rottenborough

Gardenwalker said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, I'm inclined to agree, but with this sort of thing the electorate must be considered. Who would MPs either actively back or seek to prevent reaching the final two? Who would the membership back or actively oppose (as per Ken Clarke and Iain Duncan Smith)?

I'd suggest being inoffensive is helpful in the MP regard, and having red meat to throw helpful for the membership (unless you're up against an I Love The EU candidate, in which case you only need be the alternative). But others here know the Conservatives very well and can perhaps offer better guidance.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Walker, Javid's got a great backstory but the only interview I recall seeing of him was underwhelming.

I too found Javid underwhelming initially.
But I’ve been more impressed of late. Or perhaps, everyone else is so rubbish it makes him look better.

He’s an Osborne-ite, but without the weaselling.
What’s not to like?

A family member, who is one of Javid's constituents, speaks very highly of him.

ExiledInScotland

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

HHemmelig said:

SandyRentool said:

I think that Gove would be better for the country than any of the other Brexiteer contenders. However, wearing my partisan Labour hat* I would rather face the Moggster at the next GE.

*I do not actually own a Labour hat. Or a flat cap either.

I think Labour would be pretty happy to face Gove in a GE. Ed Miliband showed how hard it is for weird looking leaders to win general elections. And that's in addition to Gove's mountain of damaging baggage, as an avid Brexiteer who pissed off the entire teaching profession.

The identity of the leading contenders for next Tory leader highlight why May will be Prime Minister for as long as she wants to be. There isn't a single one of the top 5 current contenders who wouldn't be a totally unsuitable election loser.

Yeah, honestly I think Gove would do worse than Rees-Mogg as leader.

Agree with your second paragraph too - I still see nobody, save possibly Ruth Davidson, who would be more of an electoral asset in the Mansfields of the world than May is.

Gove is the Tory Ed Miliband, Rees-Mogg is the Tory Corbyn

Absolutely. It is a sad reflection on our times that a successful leader today must be confident in their own skin and do well on TV. This trumps all other considerations. Look at candidates through that lens.

rottenborough

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

*obligatory betting boast* (NB these will not necessarily be provided when bets don't look so clever)

I have him covered from odds of 30-40 from last year. I certainly wouldn't bet against him at current odds.

Jacob Rees-Mogg looks like a ridiculous false favourite to me. He hasn't spent a minute in government and we're expected to believe that he might take over as next Prime Minister? The Conservatives will be even more batshit mental than I think they are if they even contemplate the idea.

When has Corbyn spent a minute in government?

Jeremy Corbyn, like David Cameron and Tony Blair before him, aims to take office through electoral heft. Theresa May's Conservative replacement, if it takes place while the Tories are in office, will have no such mandate. The Conservatives are not just choosing a leader in such circumstances, they are imposing a Prime Minister on the nation. It would be irresponsible in the extreme to choose someone without any electoral sanction who has no experience at all.

and, so, cannot be ruled out.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/989825328469209088

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

*obligatory betting boast* (NB these will not necessarily be provided when bets don't look so clever)

I have him covered from odds of 30-40 from last year. I certainly wouldn't bet against him at current odds.

Jacob Rees-Mogg looks like a ridiculous false favourite to me. He hasn't spent a minute in government and we're expected to believe that he might take over as next Prime Minister? The Conservatives will be even more batshit mental than I think they are if they even contemplate the idea.

When has Corbyn spent a minute in government?

Jeremy Corbyn, like David Cameron and Tony Blair before him, aims to take office through electoral heft. Theresa May's Conservative replacement, if it takes place while the Tories are in office, will have no such mandate. The Conservatives are not just choosing a leader in such circumstances, they are imposing a Prime Minister on the nation. It would be irresponsible in the extreme to choose someone without any electoral sanction who has no experience at all.

Rees Mogg set up his own company in the City and made millions from it, in terms of management experience he has a head start over Corbyn. In any case the Tories are the largest party in parliament and if Tory MPs put Mogg in the last 2 and members vote for him he has every right to be PM even if it is more likely to be a Cabinet Minister

HYUFD

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

HHemmelig said:

SandyRentool said:

I think that Gove would be better for the country than any of the other Brexiteer contenders. However, wearing my partisan Labour hat* I would rather face the Moggster at the next GE.

*I do not actually own a Labour hat. Or a flat cap either.

I think Labour would be pretty happy to face Gove in a GE. Ed Miliband showed how hard it is for weird looking leaders to win general elections. And that's in addition to Gove's mountain of damaging baggage, as an avid Brexiteer who pissed off the entire teaching profession.

The identity of the leading contenders for next Tory leader highlight why May will be Prime Minister for as long as she wants to be. There isn't a single one of the top 5 current contenders who wouldn't be a totally unsuitable election loser.

Yeah, honestly I think Gove would do worse than Rees-Mogg as leader.

Agree with your second paragraph too - I still see nobody, save possibly Ruth Davidson, who would be more of an electoral asset in the Mansfields of the world than May is.

Gove is the Tory Ed Miliband, Rees-Mogg is the Tory Corbyn

Absolutely. It is a sad reflection on our times that a successful leader today must be confident in their own skin and do well on TV. This trumps all other considerations. Look at candidates through that lens.

Ruth Davidson would be best on that score for the Tories and it explains why Blair and Cameron did so well, charisma and being telegenic and presentable on TV is vital for modern leaders

Philip_Thompson

For those who reckon that Gove is unpopular with the public its worth bearing in mind he co-led a campaign that very unexpectedly won a majority of the public's backing. No mean feat.

Pulpstar

HYUFD said:

Rees Mogg set up his own company in the City and made millions from it

I had a look at that, you need a decent amount of capital & contacts to get that sort of thing started.

Floater

https://order-order.com/2018/04/27/marc-wadsworth-expelled-labour/

Morris_Dancer

Betting Post

F1: I've topped up, with ultra-small stakes, Magnussen and Grosjean to win each way, 1001 with boost on Ladbrokes.

The Haas was just 0.3s off the Ferrari. If they're both sandbagging, then that represents value, although obviously it's still a long shot.

Also backed Magnussen/Grosjean at 81 each (with boost) for a podium. Again, super small stakes. The total amount I bet was less than bus fare into town.

Danny565

I'm a bit sceptical of the idea that MPs "wouldn't let Rees-Mogg on the ballot paper". There were a lot of Tory MPs who voted against gay marriage, even though they were privately in favour of it, purely because of how their local activists felt. Similarly, local activists' feelings on Brexit are surely influencing how some of them are voting in Parliament.

If it really was the Tory membership's overwhelming feeling that JRM should be leader (which is a big "if", and not one I'd be certain about) then I really doubt on past evidence that Tory MPs would block him.

Stereotomy

Danny565 said:

I'm a bit sceptical of the idea that MPs "wouldn't let Rees-Mogg on the ballot paper". There were a lot of Tory MPs who voted against gay marriage, even though they were privately in favour of it, purely because of how their local activists felt. Similarly, local activists' feelings on Brexit are surely influencing how some of them are voting in Parliament.

If it really was the Tory membership's overwhelming feeling that JRM should be leader (which is a big "if", and not one I'd be certain about) then I really doubt on past evidence that Tory MPs would block him.

Would they still have voted against if they thought it might not pass?

DecrepitJohnL

Philip_Thompson said:

For those who reckon that Gove is unpopular with the public its worth bearing in mind he co-led a campaign that very unexpectedly won a majority of the public's backing. No mean feat.

And in doing that Gove pissed off the Cameroons, and immediately afterwards he made mortal enemies of the Borisites. This means there are an awful lot of MPs who don't like him and even more who don't trust him. So how does Gove convince these MPs to hold their noses long enough to get him into the final two?

Danny565

Philip_Thompson said:

For those who reckon that Gove is unpopular with the public its worth bearing in mind he co-led a campaign that very unexpectedly won a majority of the public's backing. No mean feat.

This is strange logic. Was Remain winning in Liverpool a sign that David Cameron was massively popular there, despite his electoral record there?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/989808015808352261

Slackbladder

DecrepitJohnL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

For those who reckon that Gove is unpopular with the public its worth bearing in mind he co-led a campaign that very unexpectedly won a majority of the public's backing. No mean feat.

And in doing that Gove pissed off the Cameroons, and immediately afterwards he made mortal enemies of the Borisites. This means there are an awful lot of MPs who don't like him and even more who don't trust him. So how does Gove convince these MPs to hold their noses long enough to get him into the final two?

Because they think he has more chance of winning a GE than the others.

Gardenwalker

HYUFD said:

ExiledInScotland said:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

HHemmelig said:

SandyRentool said:

I think that Gove would be better for the country than any of the other Brexiteer contenders. However, wearing my partisan Labour hat* I would rather face the Moggster at the next GE.

*I do not actually own a Labour hat. Or a flat cap either.

I think Labour would be pretty happy to face Gove in a GE. Ed Miliband showed how hard it is for weird looking leaders to win general elections. And that's in addition to Gove's mountain of damaging baggage, as an avid Brexiteer who pissed off the entire teaching profession.

The identity of the leading contenders for next Tory leader highlight why May will be Prime Minister for as long as she wants to be. There isn't a single one of the top 5 current contenders who wouldn't be a totally unsuitable election loser.

Yeah, honestly I think Gove would do worse than Rees-Mogg as leader.

Agree with your second paragraph too - I still see nobody, save possibly Ruth Davidson, who would be more of an electoral asset in the Mansfields of the world than May is.

Gove is the Tory Ed Miliband, Rees-Mogg is the Tory Corbyn

Absolutely. It is a sad reflection on our times that a successful leader today must be confident in their own skin and do well on TV. This trumps all other considerations. Look at candidates through that lens.

Ruth Davidson would be best on that score for the Tories and it explains why Blair and Cameron did so well, charisma and being telegenic and presentable on TV is vital for modern leaders

We can only wish.
She was sensational in the Wembley Brexit debate. The *only* politician I recall making a passionate, compelling case to Remain.

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Rees Mogg set up his own company in the City and made millions from it

I had a look at that, you need a decent amount of capital & contacts to get that sort of thing started.

He still made it profitable

AlastairMeeks

Hold the front page.

https://twitter.com/i_am_mill_i_am/status/989827642714132480

Danny565

Stereotomy said:

Danny565 said:

I'm a bit sceptical of the idea that MPs "wouldn't let Rees-Mogg on the ballot paper". There were a lot of Tory MPs who voted against gay marriage, even though they were privately in favour of it, purely because of how their local activists felt. Similarly, local activists' feelings on Brexit are surely influencing how some of them are voting in Parliament.

If it really was the Tory membership's overwhelming feeling that JRM should be leader (which is a big "if", and not one I'd be certain about) then I really doubt on past evidence that Tory MPs would block him.

Would they still have voted against if they thought it might not pass?

Dunno, but there's certainly a cadre of Tory MPs who are constantly briefing the press about how they're going to rebel on Brexit legislation, then falling into line when it comes to the vote (even when their votes could be pivotal), presumably because they fear their local activists' wrath.

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

For those who reckon that Gove is unpopular with the public its worth bearing in mind he co-led a campaign that very unexpectedly won a majority of the public's backing. No mean feat.

They were voting to restore sovereignty and end free movement not to make Gove PM and Boris provided the charisma, Gove the brains behind the scenes

Danny565

AlastairMeeks said:

Hold the front page.

https://twitter.com/i_am_mill_i_am/status/989827642714132480

Mamma Mia!

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

Hold the front page.

https://twitter.com/i_am_mill_i_am/status/989827642714132480

I need a cigarette.

HYUFD

Danny565 said:

I'm a bit sceptical of the idea that MPs "wouldn't let Rees-Mogg on the ballot paper". There were a lot of Tory MPs who voted against gay marriage, even though they were privately in favour of it, purely because of how their local activists felt. Similarly, local activists' feelings on Brexit are surely influencing how some of them are voting in Parliament.

If it really was the Tory membership's overwhelming feeling that JRM should be leader (which is a big "if", and not one I'd be certain about) then I really doubt on past evidence that Tory MPs would block him.

If Leadsom and IDS got to the final 2 with Tory MPs so members could consider them then so might Mogg

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/989808015808352261

Dibs? Translation for the over-50s please.

TheScreamingEagles

So a new ABBA album & Mamma Mia 2 out on the next few months and Liverpool on course to win the champions league, 2018 might be the best year ever.

TheScreamingEagles

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/989808015808352261

Dibs? Translation for the over-50s please.

Dibs = Claimed

marke09

Mike Smithson
‏ @MSmithsonPB
23m23 minutes ago

Who do you think is mainly responsible for the difficulties faced by "Windrush generation" immigrants? YouGov Apr 25 '18

Theresa May 22%
Amber Rudd 3%
Home Office officials 25%
Last LAB govt 13%
None 3%
DK 33%

AlastairMeeks

I have done no due diligence on the ABBA rumour. But it's too juicy not to pass on.

TheScreamingEagles

How well or badly do you think the government have handled the situation faced by "Windrush generation" immigrants? YouGov Apr 25 '18

Well 10%
Badly 64%
DK 26%

rottenborough

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/989808015808352261

Only if it isn't pronounced 'Lewis'.

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

So a new ABBA album & Mamma Mia 2 out on the next few months and Liverpool on course to win the champions league, 2018 might be the best year ever.

Hadn't seen about the new Abba album. Is it all 4 of them with new songs?

AlastairMeeks

On topic, Andy Grice of the Independent claims that unnamed ministers believe that Michael Gove or Boris Johnson will face a Remainer (previously thought to be Amber Rudd and now maybe Jeremy Hunt):

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/amber-rudd-windrush-tory-leadership-theresa-may-jeremy-hunt-a8325241.html

tlg86

marke09 said:

Mike Smithson
‏ @MSmithsonPB
23m23 minutes ago

Who do you think is mainly responsible for the difficulties faced by "Windrush generation" immigrants? YouGov Apr 25 '18

Theresa May 22%
Amber Rudd 3%
Home Office officials 25%
Last LAB govt 13%
None 3%
DK 33%

Ouch for the Civil Service!

Danny565

Apparently there are only 2 new ABBA songs.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So a new ABBA album & Mamma Mia 2 out on the next few months and Liverpool on course to win the champions league, 2018 might be the best year ever.

Hadn't seen about the new Abba album. Is it all 4 of them with new songs?

Is still a bit sketchy and being translated from Swedish.

So far it is said they have been in the studio recording new music.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So a new ABBA album & Mamma Mia 2 out on the next few months and Liverpool on course to win the champions league, 2018 might be the best year ever.

Hadn't seen about the new Abba album. Is it all 4 of them with new songs?

It is all four of them.

https://twitter.com/jrawson/status/989830946793967616

TheScreamingEagles

I hope one of the new ABBA songs is called 'Trafalgar'. Waterloo needs a sequel.

Richard_Tyndall

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

For those who reckon that Gove is unpopular with the public its worth bearing in mind he co-led a campaign that very unexpectedly won a majority of the public's backing. No mean feat.

They were voting to restore sovereignty and end free movement not to make Gove PM and Boris provided the charisma, Gove the brains behind the scenes

Gove has always struck me as a Keith Joseph type figure behind a more charismatic front man/woman.

Morris_Dancer

Hmm. The French trying to claim they own the royal 'Louis' after they guillotined the specific royal and axed the institution as a whole is a mound of merde.

Gardenwalker

If anyone can persuade the U.K. to Remain, surely it’s ABBA?

If you change your mind, I’m the first in line...

Richard_Nabavi

Very inclusive to name the newest member of the royal family after the great jazz trumpeter.

AlastairMeeks

Gardenwalker said:

If anyone can persuade the U.K. to Remain, surely it’s ABBA?

If you change your mind, I’m the first in line...

Hmm, there are lyrics pointing the other way.

I've been angry and sad at the things that EU do.

tlg86

Richard_Nabavi said:

Very inclusive to name the newest member of the royal family after the great jazz trumpeter.

There was a very real concern that they were going to name him after an X Factor winner...

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

Gardenwalker said:

If anyone can persuade the U.K. to Remain, surely it’s ABBA?

If you change your mind, I’m the first in line...

Hmm, there are lyrics pointing the other way.

I've been angry and sad at the things that EU do.

You're a teaser, you turn 'em on
Leave 'em burning and then you're gone
Looking out for another
Anyone will do
You're in the mood for a dance
And when you get the chance

TheScreamingEagles

OMG PB is about to become an ABBA lyric dance off.

I've been dreaming of this for years.

williamglenn

It's funny but I had no sense of living without aim
They day before EU came

TheScreamingEagles

When you're gone, how can I even try to go on?
When you're gone, though I try, how can I carry on?

Richard_Nabavi

I was once dragooned into attending an ABBA tribute-band evening.

It's not an experience I remember with fondness.

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, Andy Grice of the Independent claims that unnamed ministers believe that Michael Gove or Boris Johnson will face a Remainer (previously thought to be Amber Rudd and now maybe Jeremy Hunt):

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/amber-rudd-windrush-tory-leadership-theresa-may-jeremy-hunt-a8325241.html

Hunt is now a Leaver

HYUFD

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

For those who reckon that Gove is unpopular with the public its worth bearing in mind he co-led a campaign that very unexpectedly won a majority of the public's backing. No mean feat.

They were voting to restore sovereignty and end free movement not to make Gove PM and Boris provided the charisma, Gove the brains behind the scenes

Gove has always struck me as a Keith Joseph type figure behind a more charismatic front man/woman.

In his case Boris

welshowl

williamglenn said:

It's funny but I had no sense of living without aim
They day before EU came

Breaking up is never easy I know, but I have to go.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

I was once dragooned into attending an ABBA tribute-band evening.

It's not an experience I remember with fondness.

You like pineapple on pizza don't you?