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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds CON voters reluctant to blame Mrs. May over the t

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited April 27 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds CON voters reluctant to blame Mrs. May over the treatment of the Windrush generation

Ladbrokes: 6/4 Amber Rudd is out of the Home Office by next Tuesday pic.twitter.com/nRWv7SFWqI

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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    6/4 looks short but the 1/2 is worth a second glance for those who are on at fancy prices for first out.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,828
    and second of all ..
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,827
    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,338
    Bloody Home Office officials!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,789
    Taken the max I was allowed on her lasting till Tuesday (!) at 1/2.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182

    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.

    I think its a lot more serious than that...

    This has been going on for over a week now and this "drip, drip" of revelations is highly damaging to her.

    This final revelation (that she has mislead the House) looks fatal.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,789
    Note BTW that voters are not daft - they certainly don't blame Amber Rudd, who is the first Home Sec for decades to address the issues which have now come to the fore.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Cheers for that suggestion, Mr. L. Got on at 20, so not the full 33 but still quite nice, and decided to hedge. Of course, if she leaves at 12.01pm that'd be super.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,828
    She was copied into an email ...
    shades of Henry Root
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156

    Taken the max I was allowed on her lasting till Tuesday (!) at 1/2.

    I'm in for a ton too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156
    GIN1138 said:

    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.

    I think its a lot more serious than that...

    This has been going on for over a week now and this "drip, drip" of revelations is highly damaging to her.

    This final revelation (that she has mislead the House) looks fatal.
    Why you hate Amber so much :(
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Pulpstar, it may be Mr. Gin's wallet talking :p
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    Speaking in the house on what she called “local targets” as she abolished them, Did Rudd scrap all targets for removing illegal immigrants? What is wrong with border force targets for removing illegal immigrants? The whole country wants targets for removing illegal immigrants.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.

    I think its a lot more serious than that...

    This has been going on for over a week now and this "drip, drip" of revelations is highly damaging to her.

    This final revelation (that she has mislead the House) looks fatal.
    Why you hate Amber so much :(
    I believe it is no small part that she is a remainer. I think Amber Rudd is hanging by a thread but not because she is a remainer
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156

    Note BTW that voters are not daft - they certainly don't blame Amber Rudd, who is the first Home Sec for decades to address the issues which have now come to the fore.

    Here here !
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    Speaking in the house on what she called “local targets” as she abolished them, Did Rudd scrap all targets for removing illegal immigrants? What is wrong with border force targets for removing illegal immigrants? The whole country wants targets for removing illegal immigrants.

    And that is why labour are on the wrong side of the argument. But Amber has lacked an eye to detail, hence her problems now
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,827
    Dr Lockwood Smith.
    First came to fame presenting NZ’s version of University Challenge.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.

    I think its a lot more serious than that...

    This has been going on for over a week now and this "drip, drip" of revelations is highly damaging to her.

    This final revelation (that she has mislead the House) looks fatal.
    Why you hate Amber so much :(
    Traditionally, lying to the House was a resignation matter. Has she denied sharing a lover with the Russian military attache?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512

    Dr Lockwood Smith.
    First came to fame presenting NZ’s version of University Challenge.
    Am I right in thinking there are two University Challenge winners in the Cabinet? David Lidington was one but I thought there was a second.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,641

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.

    I think its a lot more serious than that...

    This has been going on for over a week now and this "drip, drip" of revelations is highly damaging to her.

    This final revelation (that she has mislead the House) looks fatal.
    Why you hate Amber so much :(
    Traditionally, lying to the House was a resignation matter. Has she denied sharing a lover with the Russian military attache?
    AA Gill is no longer able to deny that rumour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 17,537
    Rudd has drifted out to 34 as next leader on BF.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,701
    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,730
    GIN1138 said:

    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.

    I think its a lot more serious than that...

    This has been going on for over a week now and this "drip, drip" of revelations is highly damaging to her.

    This final revelation (that she has mislead the House) looks fatal.
    Mrs May is incredibly reluctant to sack ministers. Priti Patel, let us not forget, lied to the Prime Minister. And that wasn't enough to get her sack. It was only when further shoes dropped that she was forced out.

    If I wasn't in the US right now, I'd take the 1/2.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    RoyalBlue said:

    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.

    I think that's exactlt right.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,141
    Any Iron Maiden fans?

    Check out the medley of Maiden hits by a classical orchestra on Youtube.

    Superb.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. 1000, a good point.

    Mr. Blue, reminds me of all the pro-mass migration coverage in the broadcast media, which had the net effect of not affecting the electorate a jot. It's interesting how some matters seem less prone to the influence of the media.

    Hmm. Maybe I should consult ye olde psychology textbooks about this...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,641
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.

    I think its a lot more serious than that...

    This has been going on for over a week now and this "drip, drip" of revelations is highly damaging to her.

    This final revelation (that she has mislead the House) looks fatal.
    Mrs May is incredibly reluctant to sack ministers. Priti Patel, let us not forget, lied to the Prime Minister. And that wasn't enough to get her sack. It was only when further shoes dropped that she was forced out.
    The Priti Patel incident was when May was in a much weaker position over Brexit. On the other hand May has more reason to be personally loyal to Rudd.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    edited April 27
    RoyalBlue said:

    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.

    I have been making that point over the last few days and Sky are world champions at it
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,528
    It's quite frightening that Tory voters blame the Home Office officials rather than the politicians in charge.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    RoyalBlue said:

    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.

    Yes and no. You are right (although if you've riled up the Mail and Sun there's pause for thought) but remember that for everyone dreading a knock on the door from the 50s and 60s immigration police, there are 4 children, 12 grandchildren and 23 great-grandchildren and they can all vote. Does anyone know how this is playing in the bame press?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,730

    Speaking in the house on what she called “local targets” as she abolished them, Did Rudd scrap all targets for removing illegal immigrants? What is wrong with border force targets for removing illegal immigrants? The whole country wants targets for removing illegal immigrants.

    We - well the vast majority of people - want a system where there is as close as possible to zero illegal immigration.

    The issue with targets is that they tend to get pushed down, and down, and down. And suddenly a low level civil servant is evaluating whether Wilbur T Smith is an illegal immigrant or not, and she's thinking "I've got to find five people to deport this week, and it's Tuesday and I haven't found one yet."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. NorthWales, it's also about double standards. Kid gets drowned when his dad wants to leave Turkey, the photo is splashed all over the media. Kids get run over by a psychotic terrorist in Nice, and the photos aren't shown.

    I think there's a genuine case for not showing such photos or for showing them (you can argue it's excessively distressing, or that the people must see as much as possible and not be protected/coddled that way). But showing images of that nature which suit a particular agenda but not another is just one of the various ways in which trust in traditional media is being eroded.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,460
    edited April 27
    RoyalBlue said:

    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.

    In terms of perception, I think you are right, which is why Theresa May will get off scot free. Nevertheless Windrush was the intentional outcome of the efforts to enforce immigration rules. It only became a cockup when people who might be expected to be hardline on immigration started to object.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    edited April 27

    It's quite frightening that Tory voters blame the Home Office officials rather than the politicians in charge.

    Not really - the civil servants are masters at messing up, but my criticism of Amber Rudd is her perceived lack of knowledge of her brief, probably due to the distractions on security and policing matters

    25% of the public blame the civil servants
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,730
    edited April 27

    Dr Lockwood Smith.
    First came to fame presenting NZ’s version of University Challenge.
    Am I right in thinking there are two University Challenge winners in the Cabinet? David Lidington was one but I thought there was a second.
    Kwasi Kwarteng was a University Challenge winner.

    But he's (shamefully) not in the cabinet.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512

    It's quite frightening that Tory voters blame the Home Office officials rather than the politicians in charge.

    Not really - the civil servants are masters at messing up, but my criticism of Amber Rudd is her perceived lack of knowledge of her brief, probably due to the distractions on security and policing matters
    Ironically the opposite defence has also been made: that the Home Secretary is so distracted by immigration that her eye was taken off the crime ball.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    It's quite frightening that Tory voters blame the Home Office officials rather than the politicians in charge.

    Not really - the civil servants are masters at messing up, but my criticism of Amber Rudd is her perceived lack of knowledge of her brief, probably due to the distractions on security and policing matters
    Ironically the opposite defence has also been made: that the Home Secretary is so distracted by immigration that her eye was taken off the crime ball.
    I think in view of Salisbury and London knife crime, immigration was not at the top of the agenda
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,703
    Stunning partisan loyalty by Conservatives there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,641
    rcs1000 said:

    Dr Lockwood Smith.
    First came to fame presenting NZ’s version of University Challenge.
    Am I right in thinking there are two University Challenge winners in the Cabinet? David Lidington was one but I thought there was a second.
    Kwasi Kwarteng was a University Challenge winner.

    But he's (shamefully) not in the cabinet.
    He has appalling judgement.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178

    Stunning partisan loyalty by Conservatives there.

    100% united against Corbyn as well
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    Stunning partisan loyalty by Conservatives there.

    Tory voters blame the last Labour government and the Home Office, Labour voters blame Theresa May and the Home Office. Quelle surprise!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,460

    Note BTW that voters are not daft - they certainly don't blame Amber Rudd, who is the first Home Sec for decades to address the issues which have now come to the fore.

    I get the impression Amber Rudd disagrees with the policy but her job is to carry the can for her boss and predecessor. Misleading Parliament is a serious business, even if I feel somewhat sympathetic to her on the policy issue.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212
    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212

    rcs1000 said:

    Dr Lockwood Smith.
    First came to fame presenting NZ’s version of University Challenge.
    Am I right in thinking there are two University Challenge winners in the Cabinet? David Lidington was one but I thought there was a second.
    Kwasi Kwarteng was a University Challenge winner.

    But he's (shamefully) not in the cabinet.
    He has appalling judgement.

    He sounds like he has excellent judgement.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Tyndall, indeed.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,936
    Kerching ...

    Louis 40/1 on a ten quid free bet from SkyBet.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,703
    HYUFD said:

    Stunning partisan loyalty by Conservatives there.

    Tory voters blame the last Labour government and the Home Office, Labour voters blame Theresa May and the Home Office. Quelle surprise!
    On this one, Labour (and Lib Dem) supporters have rather more basis for their hostility to the other side than Conservative supporters. It's a bit fanciful to blame current problems on a government that departed eight years ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    HYUFD said:

    Stunning partisan loyalty by Conservatives there.

    Tory voters blame the last Labour government and the Home Office, Labour voters blame Theresa May and the Home Office. Quelle surprise!
    On this one, Labour (and Lib Dem) supporters have rather more basis for their hostility to the other side than Conservative supporters. It's a bit fanciful to blame current problems on a government that departed eight years ago.
    It isn't when the destruction of records began under Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    67% of Britons have never lived in London, 20% have before but do not anymore

    https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/989896987242876931
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,703
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stunning partisan loyalty by Conservatives there.

    Tory voters blame the last Labour government and the Home Office, Labour voters blame Theresa May and the Home Office. Quelle surprise!
    On this one, Labour (and Lib Dem) supporters have rather more basis for their hostility to the other side than Conservative supporters. It's a bit fanciful to blame current problems on a government that departed eight years ago.
    It isn't when the destruction of records began under Labour
    That's stretching "mainly responsible" to its utmost.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,828

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,936

    It's quite frightening that Tory voters blame the Home Office officials rather than the politicians in charge.

    Effectively the same number of LibDem voters blame the officials.

    A lower number of Labour supporters do but then Labour supporters will include a higher proportion of public sector workers.

    The difference in blaming the politicians comes down to partisanship - if it was a Labour or LibDem government having difficulties the views of party supporters would be different but similar.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,789

    Kerching ...

    Louis 40/1 on a ten quid free bet from SkyBet.

    Good one, sir!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,703

    Kerching ...

    Louis 40/1 on a ten quid free bet from SkyBet.

    Congratulations! I had no idea that SkyBet offered bets to stakes as high as £10.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 338



    Effectively the same number of LibDem voters blame the officials.

    We Lib Dems, being largely pro-immigration, have a built in suspicion of the Home Office though so that doesn't surprise me much.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,671

    It's quite frightening that Tory voters blame the Home Office officials rather than the politicians in charge.

    Not really - the civil servants are masters at messing up, but my criticism of Amber Rudd is her perceived lack of knowledge of her brief, probably due to the distractions on security and policing matters

    25% of the public blame the civil servants
    G it is down to thickness, a big donkey elevated well above her station , like 99.9% of the current Tory Cabinet. We are led by a bunch of thick ne'er do wells, lacking morals and principles.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,789
    FF43 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.

    In terms of perception, I think you are right, which is why Theresa May will get off scot free. Nevertheless Windrush was the intentional outcome of the efforts to enforce immigration rules. It only became a cockup when people who might be expected to be hardline on immigration started to object.
    Absolute codwallop. Only the most raving of loons could possibly think that the intention of enforcing immigration laws (which go back years, remember) was to hit those here perfectly legally.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,671
    FF43 said:

    Note BTW that voters are not daft - they certainly don't blame Amber Rudd, who is the first Home Sec for decades to address the issues which have now come to the fore.

    I get the impression Amber Rudd disagrees with the policy but her job is to carry the can for her boss and predecessor. Misleading Parliament is a serious business, even if I feel somewhat sympathetic to her on the policy issue.
    Bring out the tumbrils
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,671

    It's quite frightening that Tory voters blame the Home Office officials rather than the politicians in charge.

    Not really - the civil servants are masters at messing up, but my criticism of Amber Rudd is her perceived lack of knowledge of her brief, probably due to the distractions on security and policing matters
    Ironically the opposite defence has also been made: that the Home Secretary is so distracted by immigration that her eye was taken off the crime ball.
    I think in view of Salisbury and London knife crime, immigration was not at the top of the agenda
    Unfortunately nothing was top or on the agenda
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,703

    FF43 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.

    In terms of perception, I think you are right, which is why Theresa May will get off scot free. Nevertheless Windrush was the intentional outcome of the efforts to enforce immigration rules. It only became a cockup when people who might be expected to be hardline on immigration started to object.
    Absolute codwallop. Only the most raving of loons could possibly think that the intention of enforcing immigration laws (which go back years, remember) was to hit those here perfectly legally.
    Raving loons seem to be in common supply. How else can this news story be explained?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-43898969
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,936
    HYUFD said:

    67% of Britons have never lived in London, 20% have before but do not anymore

    https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/989896987242876931

    How many don't know ?

    I once met someone who didn't know if she lived in Essex or Kent - she said she lived near the Dartford Bridge.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,291
    Not been paying much attention to politics today, but it does seem as though Amber Rudd can tear up her leadership ambitions into a million pieces and scatter them on the winds....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,101

    Mr. 1000, a good point.

    Mr. Blue, reminds me of all the pro-mass migration coverage in the broadcast media, which had the net effect of not affecting the electorate a jot. It's interesting how some matters seem less prone to the influence of the media.

    Hmm. Maybe I should consult ye olde psychology textbooks about this...

    One might suggest that it's more a disconnect between broadcast media and print media rather than that.

    image

    Your thesis would possibly be better expressed as a consideration of the differential effect of print and broadcast media.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    HYUFD said:

    67% of Britons have never lived in London, 20% have before but do not anymore

    https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/989896987242876931

    How many don't know ?

    I once met someone who didn't know if she lived in Essex or Kent - she said she lived near the Dartford Bridge.
    If you live in Havering, Redbridge, Bromley or Bexley I could imagine it is a bit confusing whether you live in Essex, Kent or London
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,936

    Kerching ...

    Louis 40/1 on a ten quid free bet from SkyBet.

    Good one, sir!

    Kerching ...

    Louis 40/1 on a ten quid free bet from SkyBet.

    Congratulations! I had no idea that SkyBet offered bets to stakes as high as £10.
    Thanks.

    Lord Louis Mountbatten was said to be a big influence on the young Charles and the third child is often given a name a grandparent recommends.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,789

    Not been paying much attention to politics today, but it does seem as though Amber Rudd can tear up her leadership ambitions into a million pieces and scatter them on the winds....

    It looks that way, but OTOH there were days when you could have said exactly the same of Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, and Boris (many such days, in the case of Boris), so who knows?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156
    The story about the coroner really annoyed on r4. Her system as it was treated everyone equally. The bonkers "equality" legislation seems to view those of some religions over others and none as being at the back of the queue for burials.
    Crackers
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212
    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,936
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    67% of Britons have never lived in London, 20% have before but do not anymore

    https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/989896987242876931

    How many don't know ?

    I once met someone who didn't know if she lived in Essex or Kent - she said she lived near the Dartford Bridge.
    If you live in Havering, Redbridge, Bromley or Bexley I could imagine it is a bit confusing whether you live in Essex, Kent or London
    Being confused between Kent and London or Essex and London is one thing.

    Not knowing which side of a big river you live on is a rather more obtuse.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,733
    malcolmg said:

    It's quite frightening that Tory voters blame the Home Office officials rather than the politicians in charge.

    Not really - the civil servants are masters at messing up, but my criticism of Amber Rudd is her perceived lack of knowledge of her brief, probably due to the distractions on security and policing matters
    Ironically the opposite defence has also been made: that the Home Secretary is so distracted by immigration that her eye was taken off the crime ball.
    I think in view of Salisbury and London knife crime, immigration was not at the top of the agenda
    Unfortunately nothing was top or on the agenda
    Making Amber Rudd look good has always been at the top of Amber Rudd's agenda.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,828

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    My view entirely. They are instruments of self-harm.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,512
    rcs1000 said:

    Dr Lockwood Smith.
    First came to fame presenting NZ’s version of University Challenge.
    Am I right in thinking there are two University Challenge winners in the Cabinet? David Lidington was one but I thought there was a second.
    Kwasi Kwarteng was a University Challenge winner.

    But he's (shamefully) not in the cabinet.
    Maybe next week! As well as ministerial resignations, a poor showing at the locals could precipitate a reshuffle.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,716
    Daughter's first boyfriend is visiting us, pizza being ordered... she's a veggie so having Greek...

    He's ordered...

    Hawaiian.

    What is a father to do?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,733

    HYUFD said:

    67% of Britons have never lived in London, 20% have before but do not anymore

    https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/989896987242876931

    How many don't know ?

    I once met someone who didn't know if she lived in Essex or Kent - she said she lived near the Dartford Bridge.
    People in Uxbridge probably think that they live in Middlesex.

    (Auto-complete was offering Middlesbrough - Uxbridge ain't that bad!)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,782

    Daughter's first boyfriend is visiting us, pizza being ordered... she's a veggie so having Greek...

    He's ordered...

    Hawaiian.

    What is a father to do?

    Don't worry - if you've raised her right, she'll draw the correct conclusion from his choice there, and take steps as appropriate.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,701
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    67% of Britons have never lived in London, 20% have before but do not anymore

    https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/989896987242876931

    How many don't know ?

    I once met someone who didn't know if she lived in Essex or Kent - she said she lived near the Dartford Bridge.
    If you live in Havering, Redbridge, Bromley or Bexley I could imagine it is a bit confusing whether you live in Essex, Kent or London
    For south east London, older people are likely to say Kent and younger people London.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,730

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    Agree... in theory.

    But the South Koreans have gone down the opposite route. They have very high WTO tariffs but are willing to sign FTAs with absolutely everyone. (I think they are the country with the most FTAs as a % of world GDP having US, India, China and the EU.)
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    My view entirely. They are instruments of self-harm.
    How will you plug the revenue gap ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,554

    Daughter's first boyfriend is visiting us, pizza being ordered... she's a veggie so having Greek...

    He's ordered...

    Hawaiian.

    What is a father to do?

    A man who craves exotic things from the Pacific will not make a good husband. Pizzas one day, dancers the next.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,680
    What on earth was going through Rudd's head when she said there were no targets?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,716
    kle4 said:

    Daughter's first boyfriend is visiting us, pizza being ordered... she's a veggie so having Greek...

    He's ordered...

    Hawaiian.

    What is a father to do?

    Don't worry - if you've raised her right, she'll draw the correct conclusion from his choice there, and take steps as appropriate.
    IF
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stunning partisan loyalty by Conservatives there.

    Tory voters blame the last Labour government and the Home Office, Labour voters blame Theresa May and the Home Office. Quelle surprise!
    On this one, Labour (and Lib Dem) supporters have rather more basis for their hostility to the other side than Conservative supporters. It's a bit fanciful to blame current problems on a government that departed eight years ago.
    It isn't when the destruction of records began under Labour
    It started with "hostile environment". 2014.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,671

    Daughter's first boyfriend is visiting us, pizza being ordered... she's a veggie so having Greek...

    He's ordered...

    Hawaiian.

    What is a father to do?

    Oh Dear
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,930

    Daughter's first boyfriend is visiting us, pizza being ordered... she's a veggie so having Greek...

    He's ordered...

    Hawaiian.

    What is a father to do?

    Not going to end well; if she converts him, he will end up eating ham and pineapple pizzas without the ham. That takes the horror to a whole new level.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212
    surby said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    My view entirely. They are instruments of self-harm.
    How will you plug the revenue gap ?
    There is no revenue gap.

    That is another of the idiotic claims by those who simply don't understand the way the EU works. As long as we are in the EU all customs duties are claimed by the EU as part of their 'own resources' minus a proportion which is retained by the countries to cover the costs of actually collecting the duties.

    We get nothing from collecting customs duties and tariffs on behalf of the EU so there is no revenue gap.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rudd is going nowhere.

    Although she is a bungler, bungling has become normalised, if not institutionalised under May (see Johnson, Fox et al).

    She will apologise, is all.

    I think its a lot more serious than that...

    This has been going on for over a week now and this "drip, drip" of revelations is highly damaging to her.

    This final revelation (that she has mislead the House) looks fatal.
    Mrs May is incredibly reluctant to sack ministers. Priti Patel, let us not forget, lied to the Prime Minister. And that wasn't enough to get her sack. It was only when further shoes dropped that she was forced out.
    The Priti Patel incident was when May was in a much weaker position over Brexit. On the other hand May has more reason to be personally loyal to Rudd.
    She has pushed Rudd under the bus. But she will not sack her since Rudd will certainly join the CU brigade and, possibly, SM.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,460
    edited April 27

    FF43 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.

    In terms of perception, I think you are right, which is why Theresa May will get off scot free. Nevertheless Windrush was the intentional outcome of the efforts to enforce immigration rules. It only became a cockup when people who might be expected to be hardline on immigration started to object.
    Absolute codwallop. Only the most raving of loons could possibly think that the intention of enforcing immigration laws (which go back years, remember) was to hit those here perfectly legally.
    Everyone is an illegal immigrant unless they prove that they have a right of abode. That applies to you and me as well as the Bangladeshis living 20 to a room in a bedsit. The only easy way to demonstrate your right of abode is with a UK passport. It is made deliberately difficult to prove your right of abode any other way or to obtain a UK passport if you don't already have one. The UKBA and Home Office make much less distinction between legal and illegal immigrants than you and other people realise. They are all presumed to be illegal.

    Onto Windrush. Those people were illegal immigrants, despite living here essentially all their lives, because they were unable to prove their legality and Theresa May's policy made it deliberately difficult for them to do so.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,701
    edited April 27
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    My view entirely. They are instruments of self-harm.
    Not this nonsense again.

    To enjoy imports, you need hard currency.

    How do you earn hard currency? Exports.

    What helps increase exports? Better access to export markets through cuts in tariffs.

    How do you incentivise cuts in tariffs? By offering to cut your own.

    Unilateral tariff reductions take away the biggest carrot the government has for beneficial trade deals. It’s depressing how many Brexiteers wish to tie their hands in this way.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Why does there have to be a Home Office statement if all is hunky-dory ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212
    RoyalBlue said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    My view entirely. They are instruments of self-harm.
    Not this nonsense again.

    To enjoy imports, you need hard currency.

    How do you earn hard currency? Exports.

    What helps increase exports? Better access to export markets through cuts in tariffs.

    How do you incentivise cuts in tariffs? By offering to cut your own.

    Unilateral tariff reductions take away the biggest carrot the government has for beneficial trade deals. It’s depressing how many Brexiteers wish to tie their hands in this way.
    Ridiculous. If that were the case then Germany would never be able to export anything to anywhere else in the EU because of the lack of tariffs.

    I repeat tariffs are simply a tax on our own consumers.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    A majority of journalists are pro-immmigration, while a majority of the public would like it reduced a little or a lot. The effort to conflate the Windrush cockup with efforts to enforce immigration rules more generally has reduced the value of this issue as a stick with which to beat the government.

    In terms of perception, I think you are right, which is why Theresa May will get off scot free. Nevertheless Windrush was the intentional outcome of the efforts to enforce immigration rules. It only became a cockup when people who might be expected to be hardline on immigration started to object.
    Absolute codwallop. Only the most raving of loons could possibly think that the intention of enforcing immigration laws (which go back years, remember) was to hit those here perfectly legally.
    Everyone is an illegal immigrant unless they prove that they have a right of abode. That applies to you and me as well as the Bangladeshis living 20 to a room in a bedsit. The only easy way to demonstrate your right of abode is with a UK passport. It is made deliberately difficult to prove your right of abode any other way or to obtain a UK passport if you don't already have one. The UKBA and Home Office make much less distinction between legal and illegal immigrants than you and other people realise. They are all presumed to be illegal.

    Onto Windrush. Those people were illegal immigrants, despite living here essentially all their lives, because they were unable to prove their legality and Theresa May's policy made it deliberately difficult for them to do so.
    Anyone arriving here before 1973 from Commonwealth countries automatically had leave to remain in the UK. This was enshrined in the Immigration Act 1971.

    So anyone who came in before 1st January 1973 from the Caribbean or indeed any other Commonwealth country cannot be an illegal immigrant as per UK law.

    The IA 1971 scandalously introduced the terms "New" and "Old" Commonwealth - meaning Black and White Commonwealth.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,641

    RoyalBlue said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    My view entirely. They are instruments of self-harm.
    Not this nonsense again.

    To enjoy imports, you need hard currency.

    How do you earn hard currency? Exports.

    What helps increase exports? Better access to export markets through cuts in tariffs.

    How do you incentivise cuts in tariffs? By offering to cut your own.

    Unilateral tariff reductions take away the biggest carrot the government has for beneficial trade deals. It’s depressing how many Brexiteers wish to tie their hands in this way.
    Ridiculous. If that were the case then Germany would never be able to export anything to anywhere else in the EU because of the lack of tariffs.
    You've completely missed the point. Germany has reciprocal free trade within the EU. Unilaterally eliminating tariffs with third countries removes the leverage in a trade negotiation where the aim would be a reciprocal FTA.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,827

    RoyalBlue said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    My view entirely. They are instruments of self-harm.
    Not this nonsense again.

    To enjoy imports, you need hard currency.

    How do you earn hard currency? Exports.

    What helps increase exports? Better access to export markets through cuts in tariffs.

    How do you incentivise cuts in tariffs? By offering to cut your own.

    Unilateral tariff reductions take away the biggest carrot the government has for beneficial trade deals. It’s depressing how many Brexiteers wish to tie their hands in this way.
    Ridiculous. If that were the case then Germany would never be able to export anything to anywhere else in the EU because of the lack of tariffs.

    I repeat tariffs are simply a tax on our own consumers.
    Tariffs protect domestic industry and jobs.
    They should only be reduced in exchange for new opportunities created when trading partners also agree to reduce tariffs.

    I can’t think of many countries that have unilaterally de-tariffed their way to fortune.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,701

    RoyalBlue said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    There is absolutely no point staying in the Customs Union as far as the Irish Border is concerned. Even if we stay in the CU we will still not be able to have the sort of border the EU and Ireland are claim is so sacrosanct. We are leaving the Single Market - something the British people certainly insist on. And if we leave the Single Market there will still have to be a border of some kind between North and South in Ireland.

    The EU and Ireland are using the border issue to try and force the UK on the issue of the Customs Union. It is understandable but we should not go along with it. We need to call their bluff.
    Yup. Do away with tariffs and let Varadkar build the border for the EU.
    We should do away with tariffs anyway. Irrespective of what anyone else does. They are simply a tax on our own population.
    My view entirely. They are instruments of self-harm.
    Not this nonsense again.

    To enjoy imports, you need hard currency.

    How do you earn hard currency? Exports.

    What helps increase exports? Better access to export markets through cuts in tariffs.

    How do you incentivise cuts in tariffs? By offering to cut your own.

    Unilateral tariff reductions take away the biggest carrot the government has for beneficial trade deals. It’s depressing how many Brexiteers wish to tie their hands in this way.
    Ridiculous. If that were the case then Germany would never be able to export anything to anywhere else in the EU because of the lack of tariffs.

    I repeat tariffs are simply a tax on our own consumers.
    What you’ve said doesn’t follow at all. Mutual tariff reductions are generally beneficial; unilateral efforts make it harder for the government to get a good deal for our exporters.

    That matters because ultimately, there are no imports without exports. We’ve managed for a long time by selling off assets and accumulating foreign liabilities, but it can’t go on forever unless we’re prepared to manage the value of the pound in the same way the Italians used to manage the lira ie continuous devaluation.
This discussion has been closed.