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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now
Politics is not just showbiz for ugly people; it’s also sport for the energetic, enthusiastic, passionate but physically average. Although virtually all politicians go into it because they believe strongly in at least some aspects of what their party stands for and because they want to see the reforms they champion implemented, most also simply enjoy practising politics – the camaraderie of (and rivalry within) the teams, the somewhat artificial opposition, the set-piece challenges, the games within the game. They almost have to enjoy it: it’s so intrinsic to the process that it’d be deadly to go into unless you did (this testosterone-filled fact of itself goes some way to explain both the male preponderance of politicians).
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This recent 'targets' thing is a mess (if we have - orders of magnitude - around half a million here illegally I should jolly well hope the government has targets for sorting it out) - of Rudd's own making - but I suspect the Home Office is responsible for the leak, not Number 10.
We know immigration is a 'hot button' - and while there is widespread well deserved sympathy for the Windrush generation, in general the public is still agin it, and Labour may end up appearing to be on the side of illegal immigration.....as Andrew Sparrow wisely observed, voters may be a lot more relaxed about this whole affair than politicians or the bubble (or indeed, they should be).
Agree with Mr Herdson - Amber is 'taking one for the boss' - so should be safe for now...
Interesting article. I agree that Rudd is likely safe for now (I was having slight regret about my 1.5 backing of her to be in her job at midday 1st March, but feeling a bit better about that now).
Rudd's also been fortunate with the timing. It happened the same time as the Korean meeting which will have severely diminished the coverage.
I was quite surprised by the polling on the previous thread. The vast majority, even supporting other parties, don’t blame Rudd for this. A really effective attack has to be brought home to the individual. This has not been despite Rudd’s best efforts to self harm.
Secondly, Labour have directly called for her to resign. No way will May do what Labour ask her to do.
The Windrush affair is very damaging for the Conservatives, not because they will immediately lose vote share (they won’t) but because groups that in due course they will need to make inroads with, younger voters and ethnic minority voters, will see this as a powerful piece of evidence that at best the Conservatives are reckless and at worst that they are actively racist. These groups were already alienated from the Conservatives by Brexit and every new reason that the Conservatives give them to despise them makes the long term task of gaining their votes that much harder.
If the Conservatives wish to terrify themselves, they should look at the voting splits in London among ethnic minority voters. Britain is getting less and less white, and that’s a trend that looks set to continue indefinitely. Demography is not destiny but the Conservatives seem to be doing their damnedest to make it so.
You are Priti Patel and I claim my £5
Everything wrong with this post if you support labour,going against the people labour should represent in the working class and change the white to black working class and you my friend could be in trouble.
First the Jews and now the white working class.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5666983/Three-women-set-quit-Labour-party-decision-allow-transgender.html
(always assuming the report is correct, of course).
https://twitter.com/TheSun?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
North and South Korea Presidents and ABBA reunite !!
But what of potential great PB related reunions. Will we see their like? ....
Radiohead and a decent song .... OGH and follicular activity .... TSE and pineapple pizza
My cape ... I'm off !!!!!!!!!!!
If you look at the crowds who dominate pro-European protests, even in London, they are overwhelmingly white. Brexit is much less salient for ethnic minorities than you think it is.
Seats like Hendon and Harrow West show that the Tories can win in very diverse areas, but they do much better with some minorities than others.
It’s obvious that most ethnic minority immigrants will tend to support Labour in the first instance, as they tend to be poorer on average, more dependent on public services, and more receptive to promises of easy access for friends and relatives from the old country. As the years pass, and the socioeconomic gap between them and the settled population decreases, these factors become less and less salient.
British Jews used to be very anti-Tory; now they are the most overwhelmingly Conservative segment of the electorate. British Indians used to be overwhelmingly Labour, but are now also shifting decisively to the Tory camp. The same is true for those of Chinese or HK origin.
BAME is a stupid acronym.
There's much less distinction between legal and illegal immigration than people think. The job of a gatekeeper should be to let the right people in with the least fuss while keeping the rest out. But the government wants to keep as many people out as is possible. The problems will continue unless it changes that policy.
It's important to see the world how it really is. Labour Party members I know are decent, public spirited people who seem to be at least trying to do the right thing. In fact they seem very similar to Conservative party members as people.
I am unsure what kind of trouble you anticipate me being in. Your last sentence has no verb, so it is hard to work out what it means. I imagine I would rather not know.
The government shift on proof is stupid, as was the decision to just destroy the landing cards. Other proof, however, should be available (NI records, for example).
It's particularly obscene given how welcoming we seem to be to lunatics who flounced off to Syria to join up with ISIS and now wish to return.
I dunno. But the first gets the outrage on this forum.
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/990132704103534592
Edited extra bit: Dr. Foxy, precisely. Labour's attempt to broaden this out is a mistake, because everyone (practically) agrees that the Windrush scandal is just such because it was against legal migrants.
https://twitter.com/AviMayer/status/988740215383740416
Edited extra bit: you're also neglecting that everyone I've seen here, from all sides, has condemned the Windrush scandal.
To make it clear: the sickness that has infected Labour is deeper than just 'attending meetings'. And your post rather makes my point.
https://twitter.com/daverich1/status/989795881460387840
And given the legal/illegal dichotomy, and the extreme consequences for placing individuals on one side or the other, we should at least accord them the same fair process that we do in the criminal justice system. That has manifestly not been the case.
Mr. Meeks, I do not know of Albert and the Lion.
Mr. B, that's probably more indicative of government not spending a fortune on the best lawyers and/or government cock-ups to start with.
https://www.libertygames.co.uk/store/video_arcade_machines/driving_arcade_machines/out-run-2-super-deluxe/?
The polling yesterday shows neither Labour nor Tory nor LD voters blame her for the Windrush fiasco, instead blaming the Home Office, or Theresa May if they are Labour or LD or the last Labour government if they are Tories.
While the fact Diana Abbott is leading the Labour attacks on Rudd is like Dennis Healey said of Geoffrey Howe rather like 'being savaged by a dead sheep'
If Marc Wadsworth, a veteran anti-racist campaigner, is an anti-semite, how come his lawyer (Harriet Wistrich) is Jewish? There appears to be a witch hunt against people on the left, such as the distinguished film-maker Ken Loach, who campaign against injustice.
TM, in the use of the phrase "citizens of nowhere", revealed herself as a nasty person in her attitude to alien minorities.
I think Labour would have had more luck if (like James O'Brien) they had talked more about the fact that it is elderly, pensioners who are being deported/losing jobs.
"This could have been your grandmother" etc. etc.
That said I agree with others that May is unlikely to sack anyone regardless of how much pressure there is. She simply isn't strong enough to make such a senior enemy and it would look hypocritical given all the stuff she has let Boris get away with.
Why are all these people so out of touch?
I could say your post rather makes MY point?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oaw-savyK0s
Anyway, 'twas quite an amusing tale.
Loach is a different kettle of fish perhaps.
He accused Smeeth of sharing information with a Telegraph journalist.
Is that accusation grounds for expulsion?
In fact, it becomes a case where any behaviour can be excused as long as the person doing it is ideologically pure. Witness Livingstone et al, and the hilarious defensive reaction of certain posters on here.
As for the comparison: look at the difference in reaction. The Windrush mess (and it is undoubtedly a terrible mess) was discovered, and it is being dealt with fairly quickly. Yes, it should never have happened, but it is being dealt with (and that is not to ignore the heartache it has caused people). Labour has known about its problem with antisemitism for a couple of years and aside from a deeply flawed 'inquiry', has done nothing and allowed it to fester.
And it's only a 'mote' if you're not one of the ones being affected by it.