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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited April 29 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the bet for you

William Hill have a market on whether there will be a second EU in/out referendum before the 1st of January 2019, I’m backing the No side.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,062
    second referendum!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    I had a bet on Perez to win. At 401.

    .......
    .......

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • Wot a race.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649

    I had a bet on Perez to win. At 401.

    .......
    .......

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Was the 401 each way?

    Hope you were watching that race with your notepad?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,557
    You can just about get that on a deposit account, with a govt guarantee against insolvency risk.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,557
    Sandpit said:
    Sounds more like it, but your link goes to a 404.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,021
    In terms of the logistics, everything would change if a senior Leaver came out against Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    Mr. Sandpit, yes.

    If he'd been one place higher I'd've had a three figure* win.

    *I appreciate others here play with three figure stakes, but I don't, and I had especially small stakes on the Force India/Haas bets.

    I'd backed the Haas chaps for podiums as well but didn't do that for the Force India.

    I did finish ahead overall, thanks to backing one of your tips and also the intra-team shenanigans late on. But to get so close, again, with a long odds bet and not quite get there is a bit frustrating.

    Exciting end to the race, though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,212
    It looks risky to me. Where there's a will there's a way. Right now there isn't a will but it's less than a 50/1 shot that the will could materialise in the next few months.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,992
    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:
    Sounds more like it, but your link goes to a 404.
    Loads for me. Find it under Politics > UK-Brexit > EU referendum before 2019
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,537
    A second referendum is complete pie in the sky. The Leavers have been superb at hammering home the following notion into the national psyche: that any deviation from hard Brexit is treasonous, anti-democratic and tantamount to a tyrannical coup. A few exceptions aside, many Remainers have been left cowed and broken, terrified at being branded a heretic. Brexit Britain has become a scary place.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,262

    A second referendum is complete pie in the sky. The Leavers have been superb at hammering home the following notion into the national psyche: that any deviation from hard Brexit is treasonous, anti-democratic and tantamount to a tyrannical coup. A few exceptions aside, many Remainers have been left cowed and broken, terrified at being branded a heretic. Brexit Britain has become a scary place.

    Except this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/28/brexit-not-a-done-deal-battle-to-stay-in-eu-second-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Reporting on the behind-the-scenes planning.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    F1: writing up the post-race ramble but I may well forget little bits and pieces as quite a lot happened.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,262

    It looks risky to me. Where there's a will there's a way. Right now there isn't a will but it's less than a 50/1 shot that the will could materialise in the next few months.

    Indeed.

    There is to be a vote, i think next week, to effectively stop the 'No Deal' option which the hardest Brexiteers secretly long for as that means WTO and no arrangements whatsoever.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649

    F1: writing up the post-race ramble but I may well forget little bits and pieces as quite a lot happened.

    Anthony Davidson on Sky is talking about differential front end grip!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    edited April 29
    Just remembered the Raikkonen/Ocon incident is under investigation. A 10s time penalty would cause Mr. Sandpit's tip to become a loser, but my tip on Perez to become a winner.

    For what it's worth, I think they'll just have no further action. Giving a time penalty in such circumstances would be very controversial and probably unfair (the matter should've been settled during the race and I have no idea why it wasn't).

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, and yet I offer my expertise with no need for a subscription!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,981
    Ex-Commons Speaker Lord Martin dies aged 72

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43941759
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649

    Just remembered the Raikkonen/Ocon incident is under investigation. A 10s time penalty would cause Mr. Sandpit's tip to become a loser, but my tip on Perez to become a winner.

    For what it's worth, I think they'll just have no further action. Giving a time penalty in such circumstances would be very controversial and probably unfair (the matter should've been settled during the race and I have no idea why it wasn't).

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, and yet I offer my expertise with no need for a subscription!

    Sadly my Raikkonen tip was for a win only at 22 on Betfair.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,992

    It looks risky to me. Where there's a will there's a way. Right now there isn't a will but it's less than a 50/1 shot that the will could materialise in the next few months.

    Indeed.

    There is to be a vote, i think next week, to effectively stop the 'No Deal' option which the hardest Brexiteers secretly long for as that means WTO and no arrangements whatsoever.
    If however, there were no deal, Brexit would not stop.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    Mr. Sandpit, too late, I already wrote the bit giving you credit for a 26 each way tip ;) [And that was the bet I made].

    If it makes you feel better, in the past I've had people misunderstand my top 3 in qualifying tips before to make money on people getting a podium.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,262
    Sean_F said:

    It looks risky to me. Where there's a will there's a way. Right now there isn't a will but it's less than a 50/1 shot that the will could materialise in the next few months.

    Indeed.

    There is to be a vote, i think next week, to effectively stop the 'No Deal' option which the hardest Brexiteers secretly long for as that means WTO and no arrangements whatsoever.
    If however, there were no deal, Brexit would not stop.
    I suspect one Remain game plan may be to try and steer us into a EEA type arrangement and then see where we are in 2020s when demographics will have done their work.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,262
    Now we see why the Chinese have twisted Kim's up his back...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,958

    A second referendum is complete pie in the sky. The Leavers have been superb at hammering home the following notion into the national psyche: that any deviation from hard Brexit is treasonous, anti-democratic and tantamount to a tyrannical coup. A few exceptions aside, many Remainers have been left cowed and broken, terrified at being branded a heretic. Brexit Britain has become a scary place.

    Except this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/28/brexit-not-a-done-deal-battle-to-stay-in-eu-second-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Reporting on the behind-the-scenes planning.
    Isn't that just reporting on pressure groups that want a second referendum, rather than actual behind the scenes preparations for one?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649

    Mr. Sandpit, too late, I already wrote the bit giving you credit for a 26 each way tip ;) [And that was the bet I made].

    If it makes you feel better, in the past I've had people misunderstand my top 3 in qualifying tips before to make money on people getting a podium.

    Okay I’ll take the credit then. ;)

    Just working out my spreadsheet now, I think Grosjean binning it behind the safety car turned my race from green to red.
  • Reading yesterday’s Times. Page 11 has a half page article about the main division of Modern Britain. The article quotes YouGov research that “people who like pineapple on their pizza are more likely to be right-leaning in their politics”.

    There was no citation of the research, sample size or sample period. Very shoddy I thought
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,094
    edited April 29
    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,958
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    Why does Ted Heath being PM make you remember it more? :p
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649
    edited April 29
    Provisional F1 spreadsheet. Lots of stewards’ enquiries ongoing.

    Safety car 1.25. £20 £25
    Class U15.5 1.75. £10 £17.5
    1st lap LAY SV 1.37 £10 £0
    Raikkonen win 22 £5 £0
    Hartley pts 7 £5 £0
    Gasly pts 7 £5 £0
    Grosjean pts 5 £10 £0
    TOTAL £65 £42.50 (£22,50)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    edited April 29
    Mr. Sandpit, my sympathies on Grosjean.

    If Raikkonen gets any kind of time penalty, the Perez bet comes off. Tiny sum, but it'd be a 401 each way (effectively 133 or so) winner. However, I really don't think it'll happen.

    Congrats on Hartley. I wonder what odds Leclerc was. I know McLaren were 5 for another double points finish.

    Edited extra bit: just seen this from the BBC livefeed: "Perez has been summoned to the stewards about alleged illegal DRS use. So watch this space."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,981
    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,992
    edited April 29
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    At the time, I was told that it came down to very bad targeting by the Conservatives. The boundaries changed in 2002, and they failed to out which were the new marginal seats.

    Edit: it's not all uncommon for a party to come second in votes, but first in seats in a borough.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649
    edited April 29

    Mr. Sandpit, my sympathies on Grosjean.

    If Raikkonen gets any kind of time penalty, the Perez bet comes off. Tiny sum, but it'd be a 401 each way (effectively 133 or so) winner. However, I really don't think it'll happen.

    Congrats on Hartley. I wonder what odds Leclerc was. I know McLaren were 5 for another double points finish.

    Edited extra bit: just seen this from the BBC livefeed: "Perez has been summoned to the stewards about alleged illegal DRS use. So watch this space."

    Ooh, I just realised Hartley came home 10th - so I’m actually £12.50 (a stake and a quarter) up if the final result looks anything like the provisional one. :)

    A 5s penalty for Perez will demote him to 6th, behind Vettel, Saint and Leclerc who will all move up
    https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2018/races/982/azerbaijan/race-result.html
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,094
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    Why does Ted Heath being PM make you remember it more? :p
    Heath was MP for Bexley.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,818
    edited April 29

    A second referendum is complete pie in the sky. The Leavers have been superb at hammering home the following notion into the national psyche: that any deviation from hard Brexit is treasonous, anti-democratic and tantamount to a tyrannical coup. A few exceptions aside, many Remainers have been left cowed and broken, terrified at being branded a heretic. Brexit Britain has become a scary place.

    I don't know what country you are living in where remainers have been left cowed and broken. People, softer leavers and remainers, have been hammering home that the idea the only true brexit is hard brexit is a nonsense from the beginning, and parliamentarians and the commentariat have been making the case for softer brexits or no brexit continuously.

    And have indeed faced verbal attack - why would they not? As fewer people than should have knew from the start, the vagueness of the referendum question meant that the battle for the type of brexit was inevitable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,818

    Reading yesterday’s Times. Page 11 has a half page article about the main division of Modern Britain. The article quotes YouGov research that “people who like pineapple on their pizza are more likely to be right-leaning in their politics”.

    There was no citation of the research, sample size or sample period. Very shoddy I thought

    Perhaps so, but it makes me more inclined to the left leaning nonetheless.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649
    edited April 29

    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.

    Yes, the penalty he served during the race was for overtaking before the line at a restart, the new investigation is for DRS misdemeanours. Also Magnussen and Stroll under same investigation.

    It’s gonna be late before bets get settled here!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,062

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,601
    Foxy said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
    what sort of uni can't (not won't) expel students for drug use?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,062
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.

    Yes, the penalty he served during the race was for overtaking before the line at a restart, the new investigation is for DRS misdemeanours. Also Magnussen and Stroll under same investigation.

    It’s gonna be late before bets get settled here!
    F1 is a high speed traffic jam, pursued by lawyers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    F1: post-race race ramble:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2018.html

    Staggering that Red Bull has a 50% DNF rate. Haas have thrown away almost as many points. And Bottas should be top of the drivers' race.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,649
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.

    Yes, the penalty he served during the race was for overtaking before the line at a restart, the new investigation is for DRS misdemeanours. Also Magnussen and Stroll under same investigation.

    It’s gonna be late before bets get settled here!
    F1 is a high speed traffic jam, pursued by lawyers.
    Today’s event was a cross between the Wacky Races and a very expensive version of one of those banger Demolition Derbys around the streets of Baku. :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,981
    edited April 29
    Foxy said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
    Surely that should already be a given as a wider punishment for committing any crime on campus.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,981

    Foxy said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
    what sort of uni can't (not won't) expel students for drug use?
    The same ones that don't expel those who get locked up for rioting and swing from the cenotaph?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,001
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    Why does Ted Heath being PM make you remember it more? :p
    Heath was MP for Bexley.
    He was indeed, though he might not have been given that he may well not have won in 1950 if a Communist candidate hadn't taken slightly more votes than his majority. That may well have been the biggest effect the Communists ever had on British politics.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,209
    Man U versus Arsenal

    This is the youngest Arsenal starting eleven (average age 24y 67d) in a Premier League game since August 2011.

    Don't they know you can never win anything with kids?
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 268

    Foxy said:

    A university is to ask students to sign contracts promising not to take drugs on its property in a bid to become Britain's first drug-free campus.

    Buckingham University vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon said institutions were "failing students on drugs".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-43940834

    So kids will do it despite it being illegal, but won't do it if they sign his bit of paper?

    I think the point is that they agree to expulsion if caught, a considerable penalty over and above any criminal sanction.
    Surely that should already be a given as a wider punishment for committing any crime on campus.
    Bang goes the Bullingdon...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,700

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT Justin, Labour won Bexley as recently as 2002, despite polling 34%, to 44% for the Conservatives.

    Thanks for reminding me. That had really passed me by - and was clearly a very quirky result based on the distribution of party support throughout the borough. I well remember 1971 because ,of course, Ted Heath was the sittiing PM at the time!
    Why does Ted Heath being PM make you remember it more? :p
    Heath was MP for Bexley.
    He was indeed, though he might not have been given that he may well not have won in 1950 if a Communist candidate hadn't taken slightly more votes than his majority. That may well have been the biggest effect the Communists ever had on British politics.
    Cue the 'EUSSR' meme? :smile:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,394
    On topic, surely we have already had a second in-out referendum? Put your pension on Yes and then take Hills to court...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,700

    On topic, surely we have already had a second in-out referendum? Put your pension on Yes and then take Hills to court...

    That sir is a shrewd observation.

    Have you already done so? If not, may I suggest that the shrewdness of the observation was not matched by your action in making it public...
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,762
    edited April 29
    Does that say 'Referendum has to take PLEASE before 1/1/19'? Tut tut WH...
  • On topic, surely we have already had a second in-out referendum? Put your pension on Yes and then take Hills to court...

    The 1975 referendum was about the European Community

    The 2016 referendum was about the European Union
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,818
    She's toast.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,254

    F1: post-race race ramble:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2018.html

    Staggering that Red Bull has a 50% DNF rate. Haas have thrown away almost as many points. And Bottas should be top of the drivers' race.

    Good and bad fortune is part of the game, Mr.D.
    Remember Hamilton lost a nailed on win last year as his headrest was insuffieciently nailed on...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,254

    Mr. Sandpit, the Perez 5s penalty was already served. His summons is for (along with Stroll) apparent illegal DRS usage.

    Which would be rather more than a 5s penalty.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,262
    Scott_P said:
    :lol:

    "Rudd remains perplexed by increase in salary in July 2016"

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,394

    On topic, surely we have already had a second in-out referendum? Put your pension on Yes and then take Hills to court...

    The 1975 referendum was about the European Community

    The 2016 referendum was about the European Union
    You've just saved me my life savings.

    Thank goodness for lawyers!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,394
    Is it time for #SaveAmber ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,262

    Is it time for #SaveAmber ?

    I thought Labour MP, John Woodock had started that three days ago! :smiley:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,131

    Is it time for #SaveAmber ?

    Time for the Guardian to pipe down for a couple of hours !
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,821
    Mr. Divvie, damn it, they could've waited until 12.01pm on Tuesday. Inconsiderate of them, if you ask me.

    Mr. B, that's true. As for Perez, apparently there's a precedent for no serious penalty and it didn't make any difference.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,537
    Who keeps leaking this damaging material about Amber? My guess is that it's Theresa's people, furious that Theresa herself has been tainted and determined to use the destruction of Amber's career to draw a line under the scandal.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,607
    So unless May is going with the Ruddian defence of "I don't read letters addressed to me by my subordinates" that means May has known about these targets as well.

    Any statements we can get to the contrary from May?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,212
    The Home Secretary is so securely wedged in her job, it’s going to take liberal application of lubricant to extract her. Yes, we’re going to need Amber grease.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,643
    Re Rudd, this is dancing on the head of a pin stuff.

    Is (paraphrasing slightly) "we believe it is possible to increase the level of forced deportations by 10% over the next few years", an ambition or a target?

    Is it a throwaway line indicating what she believes is possible, or is it a target against which she should be judged?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212

    Who keeps leaking this damaging material about Amber? My guess is that it's Theresa's people, furious that Theresa herself has been tainted and determined to use the destruction of Amber's career to draw a line under the scandal.
    I can't see that. They have to know that if Rudd goes then May is next in the firing line and right now the only thing stopping Rudd from blowing this all wide open is the fact she is still in her job. Remember that polling. No one blames Rudd for the original debacle. If she goes May is exposed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,131
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Rudd, this is dancing on the head of a pin stuff.

    Is (paraphrasing slightly) "we believe it is possible to increase the level of forced deportations by 10% over the next few years", an ambition or a target?

    Is it a throwaway line indicating what she believes is possible, or is it a target against which she should be judged?

    An ambition.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,368
    Alistair said:

    So unless May is going with the Ruddian defence of "I don't read letters addressed to me by my subordinates" that means May has known about these targets as well.

    Any statements we can get to the contrary from May?
    " I know nothing "
  • NEW THREAD

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,537
    Alistair said:

    So unless May is going with the Ruddian defence of "I don't read letters addressed to me by my subordinates" that means May has known about these targets as well.

    Any statements we can get to the contrary from May?
    Theresa should be safe. No Tory will wish to imperil Brexit or usher in PM Jeremy simply over an immigration spat. Once Amber is forced out everyone will be urged to 'move on'.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,992
    kle4 said:

    She's toast.
    Not unless the PM stops supporting her.
  • The Home Secretary is so securely wedged in her job, it’s going to take liberal application of lubricant to extract her. Yes, we’re going to need Amber grease.

    Bravo. Whale done
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,762
    Speaking of 2018 events, Betway have an interesting market on the UK Box Office #1 this year. The top two are:

    Avengers: Infinity War - 8/11
    Star Wars: Han Solo Prequel - 11/4

    Tbh, I rather like Solo for the #1 spot at those odds. Star Wars consistently beats Marvel in the UK. Having said which, I think Infinity War is a particularly strong Marvel film and Solo not quite as strong a Star Wars draw.

    So the ~1/5.5 which you can get by combining them was my bet. No way anything else beats both of them.

    https://sports.betway.com/en/sports/evt/1893191
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,992

    Who keeps leaking this damaging material about Amber? My guess is that it's Theresa's people, furious that Theresa herself has been tainted and determined to use the destruction of Amber's career to draw a line under the scandal.
    I can't see that. They have to know that if Rudd goes then May is next in the firing line and right now the only thing stopping Rudd from blowing this all wide open is the fact she is still in her job. Remember that polling. No one blames Rudd for the original debacle. If she goes May is exposed.
    What's interesting is how few people blame May, as well. Even among labour and Lib Dems, fewer than 50% blame either May or Rudd.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,762
    Betway also have a brilliant market on whether an EU member will win Eurovision, 5/6 either way. Can't decide which is value, leaning to 'No' but it's a great idea for a market - bravo Betway!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,300
    Off-topic:

    Unless I'm being daft (perrfectly possible), then Blue Origin are about to launch their suborbital rocket for the eight time. Currently at hold at t-1.58.

    You can watch live at https://www.blueorigin.com/#youtubeZUV53Nn3PhA
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,262
    Sean_F said:

    Who keeps leaking this damaging material about Amber? My guess is that it's Theresa's people, furious that Theresa herself has been tainted and determined to use the destruction of Amber's career to draw a line under the scandal.
    I can't see that. They have to know that if Rudd goes then May is next in the firing line and right now the only thing stopping Rudd from blowing this all wide open is the fact she is still in her job. Remember that polling. No one blames Rudd for the original debacle. If she goes May is exposed.
    What's interesting is how few people blame May, as well. Even among labour and Lib Dems, fewer than 50% blame either May or Rudd.
    Not a new leak. Old news:

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,762
    Quincel said:

    Betway also have a brilliant market on whether an EU member will win Eurovision, 5/6 either way. Can't decide which is value, leaning to 'No' but it's a great idea for a market - bravo Betway!

    I note Ladbrokes have the same market at the same odds. Wonder who nicked the idea of the other?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,762
    NEW THREAD
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