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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is clear someone is leaking to damage Amber Rudd and I thin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is clear someone is leaking to damage Amber Rudd and I think she’s toast
BREAKING: Amber Rudd letter to PM reveals 'ambitious but deliverable' removals target https://t.co/pCV3WHqHsd
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I've decided to start posting on Twitter from time to time. So if you could all follow me, my 'handle' (or whatever it's called) is
@marketwarbles
https://twitter.com/wjharte/status/990626655663280128
Or has someone just made it up?
She is getting on with the day job.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/990636472868003845
Hurrah for Hodges impartiality.
Watch a suborbital rocket launch and landing in a minute at: https://www.blueorigin.com/#youtubeZUV53Nn3PhA
In other words, EU countries will have "preferential" access to the UK (and vice-versa), but it will stem the flow of low skilled workers.
I really like Blue Origin, despite some of their silliness. They've got very different aims to SpaceX and have vastly different funding schemes, but both require cheap access to space. As far as I'm concerned that's good for humanity.
Although if Virgin ever get Spaceship 2 working, there should be some interesting choices and competition: do you want to experience weightlessness in a rocket plane or a capsule?
More info from Blue here:
https://www.blueorigin.com/astronaut-experience
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-home-secretary/226781851/
I'm also intrigued that Rudd is being so heavily briefed against. It almost looks personal rather than political. If so, May will be very loath to part with her. Moreover, since New Labour and Brown, Byers and Blair himself a precedent has been set that Ministers who mislead the House in error (Blair) through forgetfulness (Brown) or even because they are dishonest morons who lie, cheat and take money not because they need to but because it's in their nature (Byers) don't actually have to resign.
That's a fairly damning indictment of the standards of old Mr Whiter than White, and I think Rudd should go. I'm just sceptical if she will.
Edit - looking at the time Byers misled the House 15 years ago, what's really amusing in this context is the reaction of his Conservative Shadow:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1393505/Byers-admits-misleading-MPs-in-Sixsmith-affair.html
Guess who it was?
Unless I suppose her replacement is the Jezaster...
Isn't that the sort of tokenism that demeans politics? If he gets the job that is fine if it is on ability. If he gets it because he is an ethnic minority with an interesting cover story I am not so sure it is a good idea. People are heartily sick of the Blairite/Cameron spin on things - they take us all for mugs who cannot see the smoke and mirrors. I think we live in a post spin age, Cameron/Osborne taunted Brown about him being PM in a digital age but having analogue presentation skills. I think many of todays politicians and commentators have a similar disconnect. The game has changed and those who seek to lead do not even notice the difference!
We currently have "open borders" with the EU, and net migration in the year to September 2007 was 90,000 (against 205,000 from non-EU countries). That 90,000 was made up of 220,000 coming here and 130,000 leaving. (All stats from Migration Watch.)
My guess is that the number returning home would remain fairly constant in this scenario, but you'd probably see the number coming fall by a third or so. That would make net EU migration a fairly negligable number: perhaps only an eighth of the level of non-EU migration.
That seems to be the usual qualification...
Presumably reciprococity in terms of work in the EU could be agreed, but for retirees may be more problematic, unless that too was mutual.
She'll resign this week.
You may be right but on balance I think she will stay in post
Sajid Javid is one of the very few Tories that could turn my head to the blues
“This latest revelation suggests (Mr Byers/insert name as applicable) either misled Parliament, the press and the public, or that he has no grip on his/her department.
"Either way (s)he must now come to the House of Commons and answer allegations that (s)he misled MPs."
T-Mobile agrees $26bn mega-merger with Sprint
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43943848
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/29/eu-considering-freeze-subsidies-illiberal-member-states/
Under proposals to be unveiled in Brussels this week by Guenther Oettinger, the EU’s budget commissioner, Eastern EU states like Poland and Hungary could feel a financial squeeze if they were deemed to have failed to live up to the founding values of the EU.
Brown managed 13 years of course, but he was quite exceptionally limpet like!
Would that mean no more freebies?
He's the Commissioner for the EU budget. Cutting down on Cohesion Funds.
"We will not accept arbitrary mechanisms which will make the funds an instrument of political pressure, Poland's deputy European affairs minister Konrad Szymanski said."
It's been a daily drip, drip, drip of revelations and each one gets worse and worse.
This isn't going away and my general rule of thumb is that if a SoS doesn't "close down" a scandal within a week they are usually toast in the end...
This has been rumbling on and getting worse and worse for well over a week now so...
A busy weekend and I'm still catching up with things.
On matters Korean, why has Kim Yong-Il come to the negotiating table ? I've read two wildly differing hypotheses:
a) he has his nuclear deterrent so has no real fear of attack from the US or China. As a result, he can show diplomatic largesse to his neighbours from a position of strength while Washington will adapt to Pyonygang having nuclear weapons just as it did when first Communist China and later the unstable Pakistan also got the Bomb.
b) his nuclear weapons facility is in ruins and his advantage lost. With his regime under real threat, Kim has been persuaded by those round him to tone down the rhetoric and seek a rapprochement with Beijing and Seoul. For a quiet life, Kim can continue to enjoy his lavish lifestyle and for the next 50 years live a life of luxury while his people continue to be brutalised and the rest of the world does nothing.
I can see a lot of positives for Kim, his coterie, for South Korea, Japan and China if the rhetoric is toned down and tensions are eased. Positives too for Washington - indeed, the only losers look to be the North Korean people who look condemned to continued brutality at the hands of the ludicrous Juche philosophy and their Government but no one else seems that bothered.
Having become the first person in two millennia to achieve bodily resurrection, he wants to show off.
End of.
That works.
Good night.
You must be a teacher !
This is getting boring now. We need to move on.
Are we then to believe the Independent's story on the Government's post-Brexit immigration thinking ?
It strikes me as asking the same question as about a Customs Union - when is Freedom of Movement not Freedom of Movement ? When it's defined by the British Government it would seem.
For those of us hoping "Global Britain" would create a single transparent equal playing field for all those seeking to enter Britain legally, this is hugely disappointing. It would have been nice to have a process which would treat all prospective migrants equally, fairly, with dignity and to have issues resolved as quickly as possible.
However, there is another agenda here from conservative Brexiteers who see her as a BINO and want her out. Andrew Pierce on Marr this morning was gunning for her as are some on here.
I think the hard Brexiteers see the writing on the wall and are turning their fire on both TM and Amber Rudd who both supported remain.
I think Brexit without a customs union is dead in the water,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Yong-il
The bigger issue remains the CU - as a LEAVE voter I fully understood membership of the SM and CU was incompatible with us seeking to find a new economic identity as "Global Britain". I've no problem with the EU trying to achieve the best deal with us (they would, wouldn't they ?) and there may be some aspects of the CU we can emulate in the post-EU economic relationship but we can't be in the EU's Customs Union.
Are the Tories going to regain Croydon next Thursday ? I suspect not.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
Why?
1. Nationality is a useful heuristic. (To give a silly example: we can't expect our immigration authorities to treat all universities as of equal merit, but nor can we expect them to be in charge of rating 10,000 educational institutions.)
2. Because countries tend to have close relations with their neighbours.
So, NZ and Australia discriminate in favour of each other, as do Canada and the US, as do we and Ireland.
We will never have completely non-discriminatory immigration policies, and nor should we have. It's good to keep things like working holiday visas for Australians and Canadians.
On the substantive point however, since you seem piqued by my levity, your post doesn't actually get us very far. You take three paragraphs to say essentially we have bugger all idea why he's acting like this. Which isn't terribly helpful, TBH, even if you hadn't muddled up the name of the current
monarchDictator.That said, the truth is we have so little information of any kind - even reliable background information - that any speculation is likely to be wrong. As matters stand, Kim is making friendly noises. I can quite understand everyone is anxious to see where they lead. Anything is better than him and Trump trading nuclear threats about the size of their respective buttons on Twitter.
As for the people of North Korea, yes, this makes it less likely they can be liberated. That is a tragedy for them. And to quote John Donne, no man is an island. However, since that was never going to happen anyway (if there had been a war, they would all have been killed) I'm not sure what difference it makes in practice. Similarly, let's face it, the record of the US in liberating people from appalling tyrannies and establishing successful democracies is approximately 100% - 100% disastrous, that is.
We've had London polling, although some on the regions would be interesting. Does anyone know of any?
Even the Economist recognises its flaws: the EU could sell access to our market in future without any say from us at all, in whatever suits their best interests, not ours.
I think this is a serious moment for her.
What I have more of an issue with is the fact that people can come here and receive benefits without having paid in. I have an issue that we cannot get rid of - or bar - people who have committed crimes.
It doesn't seem to me that we need a system much more onerous than the US one.
* This was before I moved to LA, of course.