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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay should make Nicky Morgan HomeSec which could make the pas

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay should make Nicky Morgan HomeSec which could make the passage of the Brexit Bill easier

A year ago Nicky Morgan got dropped from the cabinet and since then has been one of the most vocal and efective critics of the government’s Brexit policy. It was said at the time that there had been an argument between her and the Prime Minister over the former’s criticism of Theresa May’s £1000 leather trousers.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    First! Like LEAVE....and Mrs May....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    Why would Morgan take the job if it was offered?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    How about moving BoJo to the Home Office and offering Morgan Foreign Secretary?
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    What happened to the comment I wrote a few minutes ago? Is Vanilla being orquard again?
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    The late Lord Hailsham of St Marylebone. Dame Patricia Hornsby-Smith. Ed Balls. Mrs Trellis of North Wales. Jacob Rees-Mogg's sixth child.

    The tragedy of this situation is that parliamentary arithmetic, and the careful balancing of pro- and anti-Brexit forces, are more important than the question of who is actually qualified to do the job. If it were the latter, then Michael Gove or Rory Stewart or whoever; but anyway.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    Why would Morgan take the job if it was offered?

    When Mrs May tried to do a reshuffle a few months ago to "stamp her authority on the government", half the people she had planned to move or sack simply refused to budge, and the whole thing was a damp squib. You seem to be suggesting that the saboteurs and faint-hearts are similarly willing to stay outside the tent for the same reasons.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Ruddexit has been a classical and thoroughly enjoyable scandal and resignation of the type that I thought was no longer au courant. The real question is who leaked the targets letter that saw her off? Number 10 or a 'disgruntled civil servant'?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Is the government now Rudd-erless ?!? .... Yes

    Who MAY get the blame for the continuing Windrush scandal and fallout. I couldn't possibly say.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    What, from Ms Morgan's performance at Education, fills anyone with confidence that she could sort out the Home Office? While Parliamentary arithmetic and the cabinet balance is important 'being up to the job' is too......Labour Home Secretaries averaged two years, and several left under not dissimilar circumstances to Ms Rudd....putting Mrs May's 6 years in perspective....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Woo, always a good start to the week to wake up to a 33/1 winner :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ruddexit has been a classical and thoroughly enjoyable scandal and resignation of the type that I thought was no longer au courant. The real question is who leaked the targets letter that saw her off? Number 10 or a 'disgruntled civil servant'?

    Cui bono.......the Home Office has seen off more than a few Home Secretaries in its time.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    No, no and thrice no.

    The idiot who made Amanda Spielman HMCIS in defiance of all logic, a total lack of qualifications for the post and a track record of abysmal failure is unfit to hold Cabinet office.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    John McDonnell MP

    @johnmcdonnellMP
    You can smell the undoubted odour of a government decomposing. Amber Rudd’s forced resignation, increasingly bitter divisions over its Brexit policies & Lycamobile, a major donor to the Tory party, being prosecuted for a tax scam, all point to a government in terminal disarray.

    23:52 - 29 Apr 2018
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    +3

    I can't believe that the suggestion that Nicky Morgan should be Rudd's successor is serious - she proved to be incompetent as Education Secretary, is currently outside the cabinet and is an ardent supporter of the EU.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ruddexit has been a classical and thoroughly enjoyable scandal and resignation of the type that I thought was no longer au courant. The real question is who leaked the targets letter that saw her off? Number 10 or a 'disgruntled civil servant'?

    The "real question" is. Are we now seeing this administration undertake a more than passable impression of the final years of the Major government. Limping from crisis to crisis, authority draining away and with the spectre of "bastards" on all sides of the European question circling over the political corpse of another Conservative Prime Minister.

    The only crumb of comfort for the Tories is that the Labour party are unable to effect the coup de grace as they give an accurate impression dumb and dumber.

    One does feel for the voters choice. Which incompetents would they prefer to be governed by. Is there a directly elected dictator with an aversion to pineapple pizza and a penchant for red footwear waiting in wings to save the nation. Sadly not ....
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    The problem with appointing Morgan is that it would send the lunatic Brexiteers apoplectic and make it much more difficult to push through a sensible Brexit fudge - as they'd claim remainers had overtaken the cabinet. They have been out to get Rudd and Hammond, who though remainers had largely toed the line on Brexit in public, incoherent, disastrous and nonsensical as it is, but Morgan has spoken out, and so would be viewed as unacceptable by the likes of Rees-Mogg, Redwood and co and the rest of those determined to bring party and country to ruin to satiate their own egos.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Mischevious thought for the morning. Could a wider reshuffle get half a dozen of the Remainer awkward squad (Anna Sounry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke even) back inside the tent for the next few months of the awkward Brexit votes?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited April 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Mischevious thought for the morning. Could a wider reshuffle get half a dozen of the Remainer awkward squad (Anna Sounry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke even) back inside the tent for the next few months of the awkward Brexit votes?

    Remainers are patriots, especially those three.

    They will always put country and principles ahead of personal ambition.

    Cf Ken Clarke becoming Tory leader if he had changed his views on the EU.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’m not sure that Remain MPs are that biddable and I’m fairly sure Theresa May doesn’t swallow humble pie unless she absolutely has to. Look for a bad and boring choice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited April 2018

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ladbrokes seems to have taken down the next Home Secretary market -- presumably worried about insiders lumping on while Shadsy is still munching his cornflakes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
    That seems improbable, especially given how exposed this leaves May. What's the basis for your claim?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ruddexit has been a classical and thoroughly enjoyable scandal and resignation of the type that I thought was no longer au courant. The real question is who leaked the targets letter that saw her off? Number 10 or a 'disgruntled civil servant'?

    Cui bono.......the Home Office has seen off more than a few Home Secretaries in its time.....
    Cui had access to the leaked memos is a better question. It was suggested on the last thread (or possibly the one before) that they all were sent to Number 10.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Mischevious thought for the morning. Could a wider reshuffle get half a dozen of the Remainer awkward squad (Anna Sounry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke even) back inside the tent for the next few months of the awkward Brexit votes?

    Remainers are patriots, especially those three.

    They will always put country and principles ahead of personal ambition.

    Cf Ken Clarke becoming Tory leader if he had changed his views on the EU.
    Thanks for pointing me at Ladbrokes the other week. £330 should cover a trip to Kiev if required in four weeks’ time ;)
  • ydoethur said:

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
    That seems improbable, especially given how exposed this leaves May. What's the basis for your claim?
    My instincts.

    A lot of those leaks were letters written to No 10.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mischevious thought for the morning. Could a wider reshuffle get half a dozen of the Remainer awkward squad (Anna Sounry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke even) back inside the tent for the next few months of the awkward Brexit votes?

    Remainers are patriots, especially those three.

    They will always put country and principles ahead of personal ambition.

    Cf Ken Clarke becoming Tory leader if he had changed his views on the EU.
    Thanks for pointing me at Ladbrokes the other week. £330 should cover a trip to Kiev if required in four weeks’ time ;)
    Woo.

    I’m buying some footwear with my winnings.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Sandpit said:

    Mischevious thought for the morning. Could a wider reshuffle get half a dozen of the Remainer awkward squad (Anna Sounry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke even) back inside the tent for the next few months of the awkward Brexit votes?

    I suspect that Anna Soubry would be surprisingly competent in an administrative role. But Ken Clarke is - frankly - past it. While Nicky Morgan never had it.

    Ultimately, parliament cannot compel the Executive or the EU to do things they don't want to do. The only real weapons they have are to bring down the government or to choose a "No Deal" Brexit.

    Now, I think it's possible parliament will go down this route. I suspect that many of the Brexit Labour rebels - if they see the chance of a Corbyn Premiership - would be prepared to vote down the government. And for all the DUP's red lines, they will be desperate to avoid being blamed for a recession in Northern Ireland.

    Shuffling the ministers makes little or no difference. Bring in talent, irrespective of where on the Leave - Remain spectrum it is. Clear out deadwood, and promote Raab, Morduant, Stewart and Kwarteng.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Further thought: Theresa May herself is weakened by Amber Rudd’s resignation. She has a very poor track record with reshuffles. There’s a lot going on with the Brexit negotiations alarming all sides. This is a dangerous moment for her.

    If she gets this wrong, there could be a change of Conservative leader far sooner than almost anyone imagines.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    ydoethur said:

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
    That seems improbable, especially given how exposed this leaves May. What's the basis for your claim?
    My instincts.

    A lot of those leaks were letters written to No 10.
    Your instincts also told you The Last Jedi is a good film. Treat them with caution.

    I don't think this will have been 'No. 10.' It may be somebody in the secretariat with a grudge against May or Rudd but that's not the same thing.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Further thought: Theresa May herself is weakened by Amber Rudd’s resignation. She has a very poor track record with reshuffles. There’s a lot going on with the Brexit negotiations alarming all sides. This is a dangerous moment for her.

    If she gets this wrong, there could be a change of Conservative leader far sooner than almost anyone imagines.

    There is definitely a whiff of panic in the air and, when these things happen, they happen quickly...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Amber Rudd's selection (from AndyJS on the last thread)
    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2006/12/amber_rudd_sele.html

    The other A-list finalists she beat are named in the comments as Tariq Ahmad, Rebecca Harris and Sam Gamiyah -- now two MPs with stonking majorities and a Tory peer, and two junior ministers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited April 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mischevious thought for the morning. Could a wider reshuffle get half a dozen of the Remainer awkward squad (Anna Sounry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke even) back inside the tent for the next few months of the awkward Brexit votes?

    I suspect that Anna Soubry would be surprisingly competent in an administrative role. But Ken Clarke is - frankly - past it. While Nicky Morgan never had it.

    Ultimately, parliament cannot compel the Executive or the EU to do things they don't want to do. The only real weapons they have are to bring down the government or to choose a "No Deal" Brexit.

    Now, I think it's possible parliament will go down this route. I suspect that many of the Brexit Labour rebels - if they see the chance of a Corbyn Premiership - would be prepared to vote down the government. And for all the DUP's red lines, they will be desperate to avoid being blamed for a recession in Northern Ireland.

    Shuffling the ministers makes little or no difference. Bring in talent, irrespective of where on the Leave - Remain spectrum it is. Clear out deadwood, and promote Raab, Morduant, Stewart and Kwarteng.
    Completely agree that is the way it should work, but often in politics that’s very different to how it does work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    Dura_Ace said:

    Further thought: Theresa May herself is weakened by Amber Rudd’s resignation. She has a very poor track record with reshuffles. There’s a lot going on with the Brexit negotiations alarming all sides. This is a dangerous moment for her.

    If she gets this wrong, there could be a change of Conservative leader far sooner than almost anyone imagines.

    There is definitely a whiff of panic in the air and, when these things happen, they happen quickly...
    At this moment, if the Brexit wing move against May, there is a realistic possibility and indeed probability they will end up with Hammond, who from their point of view would be far worse.

    That makes it not impossible but unlikely they will strike at this stage. But I don't think May will last beyond 2019 after this.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    On topic - promoting someone from outside Cabinet all the way to Home Sec may leave others feeling aggrieved... Bettingwise - Jeremy Hunt would be great for me.

    I will chuckle if May chooses Gavin Williamson.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051

    What, from Ms Morgan's performance at Education, fills anyone with confidence that she could sort out the Home Office? While Parliamentary arithmetic and the cabinet balance is important 'being up to the job' is too......Labour Home Secretaries averaged two years, and several left under not dissimilar circumstances to Ms Rudd....putting Mrs May's 6 years in perspective....

    Perhaps those six years are coming back to haunt her...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - promoting someone from outside Cabinet all the way to Home Sec may leave others feeling aggrieved... Bettingwise - Jeremy Hunt would be great for me.

    I will chuckle if May chooses Gavin Williamson.

    Chuckle like "Arrrggghhh hhhehhgg ggguuurggghhh"?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051
    For those who had forgotten the cat fight of Trousergate:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38287637
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited April 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - promoting someone from outside Cabinet all the way to Home Sec may leave others feeling aggrieved... Bettingwise - Jeremy Hunt would be great for me.

    I will chuckle if May chooses Gavin Williamson.

    Has any HS ever come from outside the cabinet while the party is in government? I can't think of an example, or certainly not a recent one. Leon Brittan would be closest, as Chief Secretary to the Treasury before his appointment.

    The only one May might stretch a point for is Brokenshire, unless she wants to really confuse everyone by offering it to Greening.

    Edit - it's also interesting to note that for all the flak he gets on here, Williamson's constituents think very highly of him and won't hear a word said against him.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - promoting someone from outside Cabinet all the way to Home Sec may leave others feeling aggrieved... Bettingwise - Jeremy Hunt would be great for me.

    I will chuckle if May chooses Gavin Williamson.

    Chuckle like "Arrrggghhh hhhehhgg ggguuurggghhh"?
    Not sure what this means!
  • ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - promoting someone from outside Cabinet all the way to Home Sec may leave others feeling aggrieved... Bettingwise - Jeremy Hunt would be great for me.

    I will chuckle if May chooses Gavin Williamson.

    Has any HS ever come from outside the cabinet while the party is in government? I can't think of an example, or certainly not a recent one. Leon Brittan would be closest, as Chief Secretary to the Treasury before his appointment.

    The only one May might stretch a point for is Brokenshire, unless she wants to really confuse everyone by offering it to Greening.
    David Waddington and Jacqui Smith count in recent times.

    Both went from being Chief Whip to Home Secretary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited April 2018

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - promoting someone from outside Cabinet all the way to Home Sec may leave others feeling aggrieved... Bettingwise - Jeremy Hunt would be great for me.

    I will chuckle if May chooses Gavin Williamson.

    Has any HS ever come from outside the cabinet while the party is in government? I can't think of an example, or certainly not a recent one. Leon Brittan would be closest, as Chief Secretary to the Treasury before his appointment.

    The only one May might stretch a point for is Brokenshire, unless she wants to really confuse everyone by offering it to Greening.
    David Waddington and Jacqui Smith count in recent times.

    Both went from being Chief Whip to Home Secretary.
    True, I hadn't thought of Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury as outside the cabinet but of course it is.

    From the backbenches would be pretty well unheard of though.

    Edit - another point to remember is Waddington had been at the Home Office before and Jacqui Smith was an utter disaster. So these are not happy precedents.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    The FT are calling it Assbury’s.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    JackW said:

    Is the government now Rudd-erless ?!? .... Yes

    Who MAY get the blame for the continuing Windrush scandal and fallout. I couldn't possibly say.

    Rudd falls off her perch. Will she carp?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    The FT are calling it Assbury’s.
    Well, we all call the CMA assholes...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited April 2018
    She doesn't strike me as the forgiving type.

    The Home Office doesn't really need sparkling brilliance (just as well, as Jenkins was last). It needs common sense, good politician instinct, an appetite and memory for detail and a nose for trouble before it arrives.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ruddexit has been a classical and thoroughly enjoyable scandal and resignation of the type that I thought was no longer au courant. The real question is who leaked the targets letter that saw her off? Number 10 or a 'disgruntled civil servant'?

    who cares it got rid of the donkey
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    Things I never thought I'd say no. 261: here's some pretty shrewd analysis by a Mail columnist.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5672449/ALEX-BRUMMER-believe-12bn-mega-merger-Asda-Sainburys-deal-far.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    JackW said:

    Is the government now Rudd-erless ?!? .... Yes

    Who MAY get the blame for the continuing Windrush scandal and fallout. I couldn't possibly say.

    Rudd falls off her perch. Will she carp?
    Nah, she'll just become another lost sole on the backbenches.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - promoting someone from outside Cabinet all the way to Home Sec may leave others feeling aggrieved... Bettingwise - Jeremy Hunt would be great for me.

    I will chuckle if May chooses Gavin Williamson.

    Has any HS ever come from outside the cabinet while the party is in government? I can't think of an example, or certainly not a recent one. Leon Brittan would be closest, as Chief Secretary to the Treasury before his appointment.

    The only one May might stretch a point for is Brokenshire, unless she wants to really confuse everyone by offering it to Greening.
    David Waddington and Jacqui Smith count in recent times.

    Both went from being Chief Whip to Home Secretary.
    True, I hadn't thought of Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury as outside the cabinet but of course it is.

    From the backbenches would be pretty well unheard of though.

    Edit - another point to remember is Waddington had been at the Home Office before and Jacqui Smith was an utter disaster. So these are not happy precedents.
    I absolutely detest David Waddington, he was a vile human being.

    If there's any justice he's rotting in hell for participating in one of the most disgraceful miscarriages of justices in history, then as Home Secretary not doing anything to correct his error when he had the opportunity to do so as Home Secretary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited April 2018
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    Gove is the guy you want behind the front person, doing the thinking in the back office. He is not a leader, and those touting him as such are acidifying the wind.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
    Those who are egging her on to rebel are those that want her to rebel.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    ydoethur said:

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
    That seems improbable, especially given how exposed this leaves May. What's the basis for your claim?
    My instincts.

    A lot of those leaks were letters written to No 10.
    Ah. There we go. No evidence.

    You just want it to be true so she rebels against May and brings her down.

    Everything must be seen through that prism.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Wasn't on at 33 but did back at 20 so (even with a Gauke failure and hedging at 1.5 that she'd be there at midday tomorrow) nice to be ahead. Good tip, Mr. Eagles.

    Just realised that if Ocon hadn't been taken out he might've been ahead of Raikkonen. *sighs*

    My post-race analysis of Azerbaijan is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2018.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    I find it astonishing that the CMA would even contemplate agreeing to this. The concentration of the grocery industry and consequential squeezing of suppliers, particularly farmers, was already an issue, despite incomers such as Aldi and Lidl. But would they have announced this without already having a hint that it might be ok?

    I also think there is a complete lack of commercial logic in this merger. Sainsbury shoppers wouldn't be seen dead in Asda. They are aimed at different segments of the market and I really don't see how you satisfy both. Tescos and M&S are both likely to gain.

    Normally you get these kind of really stupid, financially driven mergers as the market reaches the frothing point before a slump. Its a slightly worrying sign that the long period of growth since 2008 might be coming to an end.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    Those involved in both Justice and the environment veryucj disagree with you.
  • ydoethur said:

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
    That seems improbable, especially given how exposed this leaves May. What's the basis for your claim?
    My instincts.

    A lot of those leaks were letters written to No 10.
    Ah. There we go. No evidence.

    You just want it to be true so she rebels against May and brings her down.

    Everything must be seen through that prism.
    I'm on Team May, she's going to keep us in the customs union and have BINO on free movement.

    Why would I want Theresa to go?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - promoting someone from outside Cabinet all the way to Home Sec may leave others feeling aggrieved... Bettingwise - Jeremy Hunt would be great for me.

    I will chuckle if May chooses Gavin Williamson.

    Has any HS ever come from outside the cabinet while the party is in government? I can't think of an example, or certainly not a recent one. Leon Brittan would be closest, as Chief Secretary to the Treasury before his appointment.

    The only one May might stretch a point for is Brokenshire, unless she wants to really confuse everyone by offering it to Greening.
    David Waddington and Jacqui Smith count in recent times.

    Both went from being Chief Whip to Home Secretary.
    True, I hadn't thought of Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury as outside the cabinet but of course it is.

    From the backbenches would be pretty well unheard of though.

    Edit - another point to remember is Waddington had been at the Home Office before and Jacqui Smith was an utter disaster. So these are not happy precedents.
    Chief Whip (aka Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury) is a Cabinet post in all but name. The Chief Whip is based in Downing Street, attends Cabinet meetings and never goes near the Treasury.

    Chief Secretary to the Treasury always used to be a Cabinet post until David Cameron (whatever happened to him? Is he still writing his memoirs in that posh shed on wheels thing?) downgraded it in 2015 so Leon Brittan was already in the Cabinet when made Home Secretary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    I find it astonishing that the CMA would even contemplate agreeing to this. The concentration of the grocery industry and consequential squeezing of suppliers, particularly farmers, was already an issue, despite incomers such as Aldi and Lidl. But would they have announced this without already having a hint that it might be ok?

    I also think there is a complete lack of commercial logic in this merger. Sainsbury shoppers wouldn't be seen dead in Asda. They are aimed at different segments of the market and I really don't see how you satisfy both. Tescos and M&S are both likely to gain.

    Normally you get these kind of really stupid, financially driven mergers as the market reaches the frothing point before a slump. Its a slightly worrying sign that the long period of growth since 2008 might be coming to an end.
    And a lot of stores will close if this goes ahead. Plenty of places have a large Sainsbury just down the road from a large Asda. At the same time as growth of online reduces the need for supermarket floorspace. Big impact on jobs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051
    ydoethur said:

    Things I never thought I'd say no. 261: here's some pretty shrewd analysis by a Mail columnist.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5672449/ALEX-BRUMMER-believe-12bn-mega-merger-Asda-Sainburys-deal-far.html

    I cannot see any good coming out of the deal. Both have lost their way a bit recently, like much else in retail. Joining two troubled companies together is no formula for success. It looks like Brexit, a solution looking for a problem, and delaying the real action needed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    He's made mistakes and I am not suggesting he has always shown himself to be a "safe pair of hands". But he can think and create new ideas. At the risk of winding up @Ydoethur he did at Education and he is doing the same in his current appointment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    There’s a subtle and delicate class hierarchy in the nation’s supermarkets, which this upsets.

    The merger is likely to dumb-down Sainsbury’s, which its existing customers won’t like, without doing much to drag Asda up. I can’t see what it does to compete with Aldi/Lidl either. Tesco is nothing like the threat it once was.

    It will probably become another permutation of Morrisons. I’d be pleased if I were Waitrose or M&S.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mischevious thought for the morning. Could a wider reshuffle get half a dozen of the Remainer awkward squad (Anna Sounry, Nicky Morgan, Ken Clarke even) back inside the tent for the next few months of the awkward Brexit votes?

    I suspect that Anna Soubry would be surprisingly competent in an administrative role. But Ken Clarke is - frankly - past it. While Nicky Morgan never had it.

    Ultimately, parliament cannot compel the Executive or the EU to do things they don't want to do. The only real weapons they have are to bring down the government or to choose a "No Deal" Brexit.

    Now, I think it's possible parliament will go down this route. I suspect that many of the Brexit Labour rebels - if they see the chance of a Corbyn Premiership - would be prepared to vote down the government. And for all the DUP's red lines, they will be desperate to avoid being blamed for a recession in Northern Ireland.

    Shuffling the ministers makes little or no difference. Bring in talent, irrespective of where on the Leave - Remain spectrum it is. Clear out deadwood, and promote Raab, Morduant, Stewart and Kwarteng.
    Kwarteng used to have an on-off relationship with Amber Rudd, according to Wikipedia.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    rcs1000 said:
    Is that Wesley Snipes from Demolition Man?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited April 2018
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    He's made mistakes and I am not suggesting he has always shown himself to be a "safe pair of hands". But he can think and create new ideas. At the risk of winding up @Ydoethur he did at Education and he is doing the same in his current appointment.
    As I said the other day, it's not his ideas that bugged me, it's the shoddy way he implemented them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Nicky Morgan - lol

    Diane Abbott would do better
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    He's made mistakes and I am not suggesting he has always shown himself to be a "safe pair of hands". But he can think and create new ideas. At the risk of winding up @Ydoethur he did at Education and he is doing the same in his current appointment.
    David , I am sure Ydoethur will confirm him implementing his half baked ideas is no great thing. Unfortunately he thinks he is really clever and has great ideas but unfortunately they tend not to be anywhere as good as he thinks they are.
    New ideas are not always better ideas.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    ydoethur said:

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
    That seems improbable, especially given how exposed this leaves May. What's the basis for your claim?
    My instincts.

    A lot of those leaks were letters written to No 10.
    Ah. There we go. No evidence.

    You just want it to be true so she rebels against May and brings her down.

    Everything must be seen through that prism.
    I'm on Team May, she's going to keep us in the customs union and have BINO on free movement.

    Why would I want Theresa to go?
    Nice try.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited April 2018
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    I find it astonishing that the CMA would even contemplate agreeing to this. The concentration of the grocery industry and consequential squeezing of suppliers, particularly farmers, was already an issue, despite incomers such as Aldi and Lidl. But would they have announced this without already having a hint that it might be ok?

    I also think there is a complete lack of commercial logic in this merger. Sainsbury shoppers wouldn't be seen dead in Asda. They are aimed at different segments of the market and I really don't see how you satisfy both. Tescos and M&S are both likely to gain.

    Normally you get these kind of really stupid, financially driven mergers as the market reaches the frothing point before a slump. Its a slightly worrying sign that the long period of growth since 2008 might be coming to an end.
    And a lot of stores will close if this goes ahead. Plenty of places have a large Sainsbury just down the road from a large Asda. At the same time as growth of online reduces the need for supermarket floorspace. Big impact on jobs.
    Cannock has an Asda superstore in St John's Road, a Tesco superstore in Hednesford, and a Sainsbury's superstore on the A5 shopping centre. It also has a medium-sized Morrisons, a small Co-op in Chadsmoor, a somewhat larger Co-op in Penkridge, an M&S foodhall just off the A5, an Aldi on Bridge Street and a Morrison's superstore a bit further out at Burntwood.

    If somebody could show me how closing the Sainsbury's - which under the circumstances is the only possible outcome - will improve competition I would be obliged to them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,051
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    He's made mistakes and I am not suggesting he has always shown himself to be a "safe pair of hands". But he can think and create new ideas. At the risk of winding up @Ydoethur he did at Education and he is doing the same in his current appointment.
    As I said the other day, it's not his ideas that bugged me, it's the shoddy way he implemented them.
    Yes, Gove is not good at implementation and humdrum reliable implementation, which is what the Home Office needs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    He's made mistakes and I am not suggesting he has always shown himself to be a "safe pair of hands". But he can think and create new ideas. At the risk of winding up @Ydoethur he did at Education and he is doing the same in his current appointment.
    As I said the other day, it's not his ideas that bugged me, it's the shoddy way he implemented them.
    Perhaps at least some of that indicates the quality of civil servant he was working with. Which, I must admit, is a concern that comes with the Home Office too. I fear the UK Civil Service has joined the long list of things that we once deluded ourselves into believing were the best in the world without a great deal of empirical evidence.

    But if there is to be a change of tack on immigration, especially at the moment, only a prominent Brexiteer would be able to sell it to the Party.
  • ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    I find it astonishing that the CMA would even contemplate agreeing to this. The concentration of the grocery industry and consequential squeezing of suppliers, particularly farmers, was already an issue, despite incomers such as Aldi and Lidl. But would they have announced this without already having a hint that it might be ok?

    I also think there is a complete lack of commercial logic in this merger. Sainsbury shoppers wouldn't be seen dead in Asda. They are aimed at different segments of the market and I really don't see how you satisfy both. Tescos and M&S are both likely to gain.

    Normally you get these kind of really stupid, financially driven mergers as the market reaches the frothing point before a slump. Its a slightly worrying sign that the long period of growth since 2008 might be coming to an end.
    And a lot of stores will close if this goes ahead. Plenty of places have a large Sainsbury just down the road from a large Asda. At the same time as growth of online reduces the need for supermarket floorspace. Big impact on jobs.
    Cannock has an Asda superstore in St John's Road, a Tesco superstore in Hednesford, and a Sainsbury's superstore on the A5 shopping centre. It also has a medium-sized Morrisons, a small Co-op in Chadsmoor, a somewhat larger Co-op in Penkridge, an M&S foodhall just off the A5, an Aldi on Bridge Street and a Morrison's superstore a bit further out at Burntwood.

    If somebody could sow me how closing the Sainsbury's - which under the circumstances is the only possible outcome - will improve competition I would be obliged to them.
    It's not about improving competition is it?
    Improving margins would be my guess.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    He's made mistakes and I am not suggesting he has always shown himself to be a "safe pair of hands". But he can think and create new ideas. At the risk of winding up @Ydoethur he did at Education and he is doing the same in his current appointment.
    As I said the other day, it's not his ideas that bugged me, it's the shoddy way he implemented them.
    Perhaps at least some of that indicates the quality of civil servant he was working with. Which, I must admit, is a concern that comes with the Home Office too. I fear the UK Civil Service has joined the long list of things that we once deluded ourselves into believing were the best in the world without a great deal of empirical evidence.

    But if there is to be a change of tack on immigration, especially at the moment, only a prominent Brexiteer would be able to sell it to the Party.
    The way he sold the change in fisheries policy to his father?

    In terms of originality he might actually be OK as Home Secretary, but I too worry about his civil servants.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    I find it astonishing that the CMA would even contemplate agreeing to this. The concentration of the grocery industry and consequential squeezing of suppliers, particularly farmers, was already an issue, despite incomers such as Aldi and Lidl. But would they have announced this without already having a hint that it might be ok?

    I also think there is a complete lack of commercial logic in this merger. Sainsbury shoppers wouldn't be seen dead in Asda. They are aimed at different segments of the market and I really don't see how you satisfy both. Tescos and M&S are both likely to gain.

    Normally you get these kind of really stupid, financially driven mergers as the market reaches the frothing point before a slump. Its a slightly worrying sign that the long period of growth since 2008 might be coming to an end.
    And a lot of stores will close if this goes ahead. Plenty of places have a large Sainsbury just down the road from a large Asda. At the same time as growth of online reduces the need for supermarket floorspace. Big impact on jobs.
    Cannock has an Asda superstore in St John's Road, a Tesco superstore in Hednesford, and a Sainsbury's superstore on the A5 shopping centre. It also has a medium-sized Morrisons, a small Co-op in Chadsmoor, a somewhat larger Co-op in Penkridge, an M&S foodhall just off the A5, an Aldi on Bridge Street and a Morrison's superstore a bit further out at Burntwood.

    If somebody could sow me how closing the Sainsbury's - which under the circumstances is the only possible outcome - will improve competition I would be obliged to them.
    It's not about improving competition is it?
    Improving margins would be my guess.
    For them, yes. Although this would probably make matters worse not better.

    The CMA should be looking at our interests. Indeed, it should veto this merger then take a long hard look at Tesco. But of course it won't.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Nicky Morgan - lol

    Diane Abbott would do better

    Bl@!@y hell. Are you sure? Really, really sure?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Things I never thought I'd say no. 261: here's some pretty shrewd analysis by a Mail columnist.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5672449/ALEX-BRUMMER-believe-12bn-mega-merger-Asda-Sainburys-deal-far.html

    I cannot see any good coming out of the deal. Both have lost their way a bit recently, like much else in retail. Joining two troubled companies together is no formula for success. It looks like Brexit, a solution looking for a problem, and delaying the real action needed.
    Top marks for trying to weave Brexit into that one.

    That aside, the Mail article is a good one. The Board and non-execs of both will, i suspect, be well-rewarded for this but long gone once the newly merged company hits its next major crisis in 5 years time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    Nicky Morgan - lol

    Diane Abbott would do better

    Now hang on a minute...that's going a bit far. What have you got against police officers that you want them all paid £30 a year as a result of her nineteenth century worldview.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Shadsy has just settled the Rudd first out bets.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    I find it astonishing that the CMA would even contemplate agreeing to this. The concentration of the grocery industry and consequential squeezing of suppliers, particularly farmers, was already an issue, despite incomers such as Aldi and Lidl. But would they have announced this without already having a hint that it might be ok?

    I also think there is a complete lack of commercial logic in this merger. Sainsbury shoppers wouldn't be seen dead in Asda. They are aimed at different segments of the market and I really don't see how you satisfy both. Tescos and M&S are both likely to gain.

    Normally you get these kind of really stupid, financially driven mergers as the market reaches the frothing point before a slump. Its a slightly worrying sign that the long period of growth since 2008 might be coming to an end.
    And a lot of stores will close if this goes ahead. Plenty of places have a large Sainsbury just down the road from a large Asda. At the same time as growth of online reduces the need for supermarket floorspace. Big impact on jobs.
    Cannock has an Asda superstore in St John's Road, a Tesco superstore in Hednesford, and a Sainsbury's superstore on the A5 shopping centre. It also has a medium-sized Morrisons, a small Co-op in Chadsmoor, a somewhat larger Co-op in Penkridge, an M&S foodhall just off the A5, an Aldi on Bridge Street and a Morrison's superstore a bit further out at Burntwood.

    If somebody could sow me how closing the Sainsbury's - which under the circumstances is the only possible outcome - will improve competition I would be obliged to them.
    It's not about improving competition is it?
    Improving margins would be my guess.
    There would be massive job losses in such a merger. There are many places where Asda and Sainsbury stores are in close proximity. As they had different clientele that really doesn't matter right now. Put them together and there will be a very large number of store closures. Plus, of course, most of the savings would come from integrating their logistics and supply chains.

    Sainsbury's have really lost their way and this is almost an admission of defeat.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    I fear Nicky might be a tad out for her depth on this one...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    There’s a subtle and delicate class hierarchy in the nation’s supermarkets, which this upsets.

    The merger is likely to dumb-down Sainsbury’s, which its existing customers won’t like, without doing much to drag Asda up. I can’t see what it does to compete with Aldi/Lidl either. Tesco is nothing like the threat it once was.

    It will probably become another permutation of Morrisons. I’d be pleased if I were Waitrose or M&S.
    The end of 'Taste the Difference' range?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Nicky Morgan - lol

    Diane Abbott would do better

    Bl@!@y hell. Are you sure? Really, really sure?
    just watched darling Diane of TV stonewalling a question from Piers Morgan since she didn't have a clue what her policies were

    totally shameless

    now imagine Nicky Morgan doing the same but trying to outpompous Piers since she doesn't have a clue either
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    Good analysis. We disagree about the Opposition, but it is surely pretty evident that the Government is intellectually exhausted, in the same way that Labour was in 2005-10.

    Javid shows emotional intelligence, expressing what sounds like genuine concern over Windrush, Grenfell and housing shortages. I can't think of anything he's actually done (maybe I've just not noticed) but he looks plausible. I doubt if Brexit will hinge on a single vote so that shouldn't really be May's primary motivation in selecting the successor.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Spare a thought this morning for Carlotta and HYUFD.

    The Central Office auto rebuttal bots have a difficult day ahead.

    My every sympathy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    I find it astonishing that the CMA would even contemplate agreeing to this. The concentration of the grocery industry and consequential squeezing of suppliers, particularly farmers, was already an issue, despite incomers such as Aldi and Lidl. But would they have announced this without already having a hint that it might be ok?

    I also think there is a complete lack of commercial logic in this merger. Sainsbury shoppers wouldn't be seen dead in Asda. They are aimed at different segments of the market and I really don't see how you satisfy both. Tescos and M&S are both likely to gain.

    Normally you get these kind of really stupid, financially driven mergers as the market reaches the frothing point before a slump. Its a slightly worrying sign that the long period of growth since 2008 might be coming to an end.
    Yes, it’s very difficult to see the CMA nodding this through, there’s going to be extensive lobbying by suppliers and the NFU against further consolidation in the grocery market.

    The two companies employ 360k people between them so there’s the potential for a lot of job losses at head offices, and through consolidation of stores and warehouses.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    It;s far, far too late of course, but what should have happened when the Coalition was established was that Nick Clegg be Home Secretary.
    After all, the last time we had an (eventually) LibDem Home Sec was Roy Jenkins and that turned out reasonably well.


    Parallel universe, counter-factual and all that of course.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Shadsy has just settled the Rudd first out bets.

    Well done to Ladbrokes
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Anazina said:

    Spare a thought this morning for Carlotta and HYUFD.

    The Central Office auto rebuttal bots have a difficult day ahead.

    My every sympathy.

    What an utterly pointless and idiotic post. Pots and kettles spring to mind.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    He's made mistakes and I am not suggesting he has always shown himself to be a "safe pair of hands". But he can think and create new ideas. At the risk of winding up @Ydoethur he did at Education and he is doing the same in his current appointment.
    As I said the other day, it's not his ideas that bugged me, it's the shoddy way he implemented them.
    Yes, Gove is not good at implementation and humdrum reliable implementation, which is what the Home Office needs.
    Disagree. What the Home Office needs is a strong personality willing to drag the department into being fit for purpose.

    This view is in no way related to the fact that I’m going to have to run the gauntlet of getting my wife a resident visa next year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stupid decisions of our time.

    Sainsbury and Asda confirm merger plans. Now all they need is the CMA's approval which given how supine they have become will surely be forthcoming.

    It will bugger competition in the grocery trade even further, but that's life (or a large dividend, I suppose).

    I can't see it ending well though. I think they'll have trouble integrating two such behemoths and end up losing market share hand over fist - probably, ironically, to Tesco, which will make matters still worse.

    I find it astonishing that the CMA would even contemplate agreeing to this. The concentration of the grocery industry and consequential squeezing of suppliers, particularly farmers, was already an issue, despite incomers such as Aldi and Lidl. But would they have announced this without already having a hint that it might be ok?

    I also think there is a complete lack of commercial logic in this merger. Sainsbury shoppers wouldn't be seen dead in Asda. They are aimed at different segments of the market and I really don't see how you satisfy both. Tescos and M&S are both likely to gain.

    Normally you get these kind of really stupid, financially driven mergers as the market reaches the frothing point before a slump. Its a slightly worrying sign that the long period of growth since 2008 might be coming to an end.
    Yes, it’s very difficult to see the CMA nodding this through, there’s going to be extensive lobbying by suppliers and the NFU against further consolidation in the grocery market.

    The two companies employ 360k people between them so there’s the potential for a lot of job losses at head offices, and through consolidation of stores and warehouses.
    Newspapers speculating that as CMA allowed Tesco-Booker tie-up, then their view of market has changed.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    ydoethur said:

    FWIW, I don't think Amber Rudd is going to join the awkward squad.

    She isn't Anna Soubry, and I think, for her, showing her loyalty and integrity outside Government is as important as doing she inside.

    She’s been shafted by No 10.

    It was clear to me yesterday those leaks were coming from No 10.
    That seems improbable, especially given how exposed this leaves May. What's the basis for your claim?
    My instincts.

    A lot of those leaks were letters written to No 10.
    Ah. There we go. No evidence.

    You just want it to be true so she rebels against May and brings her down.

    Everything must be seen through that prism.
    Sherlock is on the case.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    Good analysis. We disagree about the Opposition, but it is surely pretty evident that the Government is intellectually exhausted, in the same way that Labour was in 2005-10.

    Javid shows emotional intelligence, expressing what sounds like genuine concern over Windrush, Grenfell and housing shortages. I can't think of anything he's actually done (maybe I've just not noticed) but he looks plausible. I doubt if Brexit will hinge on a single vote so that shouldn't really be May's primary motivation in selecting the successor.
    Javid told a very funny joke about condoms. At Business he was a Vince Cable level of disappointment and I have not seen much evidence that he has taken productive steps to improve House building, despite that being a government priority backed with some money. I agree he has shown emotional intelligence which is a commodity that has been in very short supply at the Home Office for too long. Oh for the days of a Roy Jenkins.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited April 2018

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    Good analysis. We disagree about the Opposition, but it is surely pretty evident that the Government is intellectually exhausted, in the same way that Labour was in 2005-10.

    Javid shows emotional intelligence, expressing what sounds like genuine concern over Windrush, Grenfell and housing shortages. I can't think of anything he's actually done (maybe I've just not noticed) but he looks plausible. I doubt if Brexit will hinge on a single vote so that shouldn't really be May's primary motivation in selecting the successor.
    What happened to Rudd is essentially what happened to Byers in 2002 (where he was nailed to the wall for his serial dishonesty by his Conservative Shadow, a rising star called Theresa May). The malaise went on far longer than the last five years, and with the Opposition so weak it's quite possible this Government has nine more years to go.

    What a depressing thought.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited April 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm not too proud to admit that I agreed with @David_Herdson on Saturday that Rudd was safe, if only as a shield for May. The letter makes her evidence to Parliament pretty weird. Indeed trying to pretend that people spending a lot of public money would not have targets was always weird. She was obviously anxious to avoid the impression that a target was driving decision making. Unfortunately the quality of decision making shows what happens when civil servants are being pushed to deliver an outcome, targets or not. It is an accepted risk that the incompetent, the poorly documented and the disorganised will be swept up in process and some plainly wrong decisions will end up being implemented.

    What is really required is some serious new thinking on how we deal with illegal immigration. It is a further problem that such a rethink would involve admitting implicit criticism of May's own time as Home Secretary. In my opinion (having just admitted I called this one wrong) the only member of the Cabinet who does new thinking is Gove. The problem is that he is needed in so many places in a government facing so many challenges and yet so incapable of original thought.

    I really cannot see someone from outside the Cabinet being appointed to the Home Office. It remains one of the great offices of State and, as Rudd has shown, it is a minefield for the unwary or inexperienced. I see promotion from within and any incomer filling in the department then vacated.

    David, the fact that Gove is a F888wit of the first order with more faces than the town clock does not help either. Better left looking after the long grass where he can do less harm.
    He's made mistakes and I am not suggesting he has always shown himself to be a "safe pair of hands". But he can think and create new ideas. At the risk of winding up @Ydoethur he did at Education and he is doing the same in his current appointment.
    As I said the other day, it's not his ideas that bugged me, it's the shoddy way he implemented them.
    Yes, Gove is not good at implementation and humdrum reliable implementation, which is what the Home Office needs.
    Disagree.
    What the Home Office needs is a strong personality willing to drag the department into being fit for purpose.

    This view is in no way related to the fact that I’m going to have to run the gauntlet of getting my wife a resident visa next year.
    What the Home Office needs is a strong personality willing to drag the department into being fit for purpose.'

    Agree!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Where should I put my 'Next Cabinet minister to go' money?
This discussion has been closed.