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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parlia

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited May 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parliament is unlikely even to take his seat

This by-election is the 33rd by-election since the 2010 general election and is the 25th occasion when a by-election has been caused by an MP resigning their seat (75%). This compares with the eight years before then (2002 – 2010) when out of 21 by-elections 11 were caused by resigning MP’s (52%) and the reason for this? Fewer and fewer MP’s are dying in office. Indeed during the 1966 – 1970 Parliament of the 38 by-elections, 29 (76%) were caused by the member dying (therefore making any chances of the government’s majority disappearing through by-elections before the next election very unlikely indeed).

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,733
    edited May 1
    1st - unlike me on Thursday!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,733
    2nd - like me on Thursday!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182
    Hedging your bets there Sandy...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156

    2nd - like me on Thursday!

    Which ward are you running in, and do you
    a) Want
    b) Expect

    to win ? ;)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,131
    fpt
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:



    In your mind maybe, most people living in Kensington and Chelsea are multi millionaires and are more worried by Labour councils slashing the value of their wealth.

    If you are going to go on about getting more people on the housing ladder speak to the LDs, who both want to keep free movement and along with the Residents Associations are the NIMBYiest party around

    29% of children in Kensington and Chelsea live in poverty, it's an area of extreme wealth but far from universally so*. And even the Haves don't like the idea of their children not having the opportunities they had - the relative decline in housing affordability is the key, not the absolute position.

    *(the London figure is 37%, I'm not denying K&C is a richer area than most, for sure)
    29% is less than a third, as I said the majority of Kensington and Chelsea residents are very wealthy indeed.

    The 'Haves' are richer in asset terms than their parents could even dream of so again your politics of resentment and envy fails there in Kensington and Chelsea too
    I'm not on the doorstep preaching this, I'm observing voter shifts and trying to understand it. Why do you think Labour's popularity in London is at record highs?
    Well if Labour win Kensington and Chelsea on Thursday I will admit I was wrong, that is a big if however
    Good point because at the GE Labour got a whooping in Kensington, didn't they.
    Labour won Kensington by just 20 votes, the Tories won Chelsea and Fulham by thousands
    And the Tories won Rutland and Melton by 23,000 so the fuck what?

    Labour won Kensington at the GE where all those millionaire Labour voters are supposedly so worried about a Labour government putting up taxes, making them poorer, etc, as you would have it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,827
    edited May 1
    Curse of new thread. FPT.
    Scott_P said:
    Since when has Teresa May made a robust response to anything?

    I must say it’s a delight to watch the Brexiters froth and spin. I’d have more sympathy if there was any kind of plan for Brexit. But there isn’t. Instead it continues to fall to the EU to write the actual negotiating papers, and to Remainers to figure out how the hell to do it.

    All Brexiters do is grizzle, impotently.
    In the absence of logical argument, no wonder some seek psychosexual reasons for Brexit derangement.

    Roll on a referendum on the deal.
    We can’t go back, but we certainly ain’t going forward.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879
    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,827
    DavidL said:

    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.

    And vice versa for the DUP.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,733
    Pulpstar said:

    2nd - like me on Thursday!

    Which ward are you running in, and do you
    a) Want
    b) Expect

    to win ? ;)
    Put it this way - if I achieve a 30% swing I'll still lose!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,461
    Nominations for the by-election:

    Sinn Féin - Órfhlaith Begley
    DUP - Thomas Buchanan
    Alliance - Stephen Donnelly
    SDLP - Daniel McCrossan
    UUP - Chris Smyth

    Does NI not do comedy by-election candidates?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,084

    DavidL said:

    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.

    And vice versa for the DUP.
    look on the bright side

    either way it's a leaver win
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,084
    DavidL said:

    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.

    Tony's legacy - thanks
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,334
    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,334
    tlg86 said:

    Nominations for the by-election:

    Sinn Féin - Órfhlaith Begley
    DUP - Thomas Buchanan
    Alliance - Stephen Donnelly
    SDLP - Daniel McCrossan
    UUP - Chris Smyth

    Does NI not do comedy by-election candidates?

    Yes they're called [Sinn Féin/the DUP] (delete as applicable)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,383
    @NigelB:

    "Regarding our conversation yesterday, I note that half of Australia has decriminalised prostitution for a while now. There is evidence which tends to support both your and my views on the matter - while there do seem to be improvements in terms of health and reduction in coercion, overall it still looks a pretty nasty business, organised crime appears still to be involved, and the prevalence of the activity has (at least visibly) increased.
    Unbiased commentary is hard to come by.

    What is clear is that decriminalisation is no panacea - though I still think a Royal Commission would be a good idea."

    Thanks. Interesting. A Royal Commission would probably be a good idea but don't see any party taking this up as a priority.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879

    DavidL said:

    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.

    Tony's legacy - thanks
    As a means of integrating the communities the GFA has been a total failure. As a means of bribing violent people to keep the peace it has been a success. But the price has been very high.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,084
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.

    Tony's legacy - thanks
    As a means of integrating the communities the GFA has been a total failure. As a means of bribing violent people to keep the peace it has been a success. But the price has been very high.
    fraid so

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,383
    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."

    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,383
    DavidL said:

    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.

    Hardly surprising since the British and Irish governments had determinedly undermined the peaceful parties e.g. the SDLP.

    There's a lesson there for Israel which, by refusing to deal with the PLO (though it was not very peaceful but could have been won over with some meaningful concessions) ended up facing a much more intransigent foe in Hamas etc and might well, God help us, end up in future facing groups which make Hamas look like a walk in the park (think IS-squared).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,334
    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,383

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,510
    Looking at that you might think that racism must be compulsory in the Labour Party now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."

    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.

    My wife was at the Women of Scotland lunch a week ago. One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. A transgender friend had apparently told her how wonderful this was. I suspect that there are a very large number of crossed legs in the second half.

    To me this shows a completely stupid and ridiculous over-compensation to make a vanishingly small group marginally happier at the cost of everyone else. Its self indulgent twaddle.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,869
    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
    I don't get how your gender can simply be a personal choice, which can defy your biology if you wish it to.

    But, no doubt I'm behind the times. My view may well be considered bigoted and liable to me sacked in a professional environment if I uttered it in, say, 10 years time.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,851

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    Indeed. One of my oldest and dearest schoolfriends always wanted to be a woman - and got suspended for stealing clothes from a girl's dorm. We knew each other at university as well, when he started experimenting more publicly. It took him until his early thirties, but he went through with the op. I've also known and worked with several others (the tech company seems to have a good share of transgender people).

    It's not like a binary process: one moment they're one gender, the next they're the other. It's a process, and a rather difficult and long-term one at that.

    This does lead to all sorts of difficulties, and being 'fair' can be difficult: for instance, despite having had transgender friends and colleagues, I'm unsure it's 'fair' for someone to compete in a sport as their new gender, where they may get an advantage. This is, needless to say, a rather controversial view in some circles ...

    But when it comes to things like all-women shortlists, which are stupid and counter-productive anyway, I think we should let people self-identify away. ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,781
    glw said:

    Looking at that you might think that racism must be compulsory in the Labour Party now.
    Along with being a conspiracy theory nutter who only gets their news from Russia today and the morning star...
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,069
    The abstentionalist position is eternal and for ever but a united island of Ireland looks to now be on the horizon. Thanks to Brexit,a border poll seems inevitable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.

    Hardly surprising since the British and Irish governments had determinedly undermined the peaceful parties e.g. the SDLP.

    How do you think they did that? It doesn't obviously seem in either the Tory's or Labour's interests. They have both lost their more natural supporters.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,869

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
    Is it wrong to say I wouldn't mind being a woman for 24 hours just so I can figure out how they "work" ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,641

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
    Is it wrong to say I wouldn't mind being a woman for 24 hours just so I can figure out how they "work" ?
    Start small. You could experiment by being a Europhile for 24 hours to see if you can keep it up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,879

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
    Is it wrong to say I wouldn't mind being a woman for 24 hours just so I can figure out how they "work" ?
    More optimistic, I would say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:



    In your mind maybe, most people living in Kensington and Chelsea are multi millionaires and are more worried by Labour councils slashing the value of their wealth.

    If you are going to go on about getting more people on the housing ladder speak to the LDs, who both want to keep free movement and along with the Residents Associations are the NIMBYiest party around

    29% of children in Kensington and Chelsea live in poverty, it's an area of extreme wealth but far from universally so*. And even the Haves don't like the idea of their children not having the opportunities they had - the relative decline in housing affordability is the key, not the absolute position.

    *(the London figure is 37%, I'm not denying K&C is a richer area than most, for sure)
    29% is less than a third, as I said the majority of Kensington and Chelsea residents are very wealthy indeed.

    The 'Haves' are richer in asset terms than their parents could even dream of so again your politics of resentment and envy fails there in Kensington and Chelsea too
    I'm not on the doorstep preaching this, I'm observing voter shifts and trying to understand it. Why do you think Labour's popularity in London is at record highs?
    Well if Labour win Kensington and Chelsea on Thursday I will admit I was wrong, that is a big if however
    Good point because at the GE Labour got a whooping in Kensington, didn't they.
    Labour won Kensington by just 20 votes, the Tories won Chelsea and Fulham by thousands
    And the Tories won Rutland and Melton by 23,000 so the fuck what?

    Labour won Kensington at the GE where all those millionaire Labour voters are supposedly so worried about a Labour government putting up taxes, making them poorer, etc, as you would have it.
    And the Tories won the 2 parliamentary seats in Kensington and Chelsea combined, Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham, by over 8000 votes
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,670
    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
    Unfortunately you would be considered transphobic by most of the modern left.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 338
    edited May 1
    From end of previous thread is reply to HYUFD :

    Litter, broken street lights, damaged paving, bins, flytipping, clean parks and, yes, indeed potholes.

    All of that plus the poor record of the Labour councillors who have taken the voters for granted here for so long.

    And in reply to JosiasJessop:

    I wouldn't mind betting that more people in my city have seen our leaflets than have seen our PPB... even I haven't watched it, to be honest. :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156

    The abstentionalist position is eternal and for ever but a united island of Ireland looks to now be on the horizon. Thanks to Brexit,a border poll seems inevitable.

    I think it would be a thumping victory for the unionists
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,869

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
    Is it wrong to say I wouldn't mind being a woman for 24 hours just so I can figure out how they "work" ?
    Start small. You could experiment by being a Europhile for 24 hours to see if you can keep it up.
    I think it's only you that gets consistently that "excited" about the EU.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,781
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
    Unfortunately you would be considered transphobic by most of the modern left.
    In good company with germaine Greer and Peter tatchell.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,520
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."

    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.

    My wife was at the Women of Scotland lunch a week ago. One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. A transgender friend had apparently told her how wonderful this was. I suspect that there are a very large number of crossed legs in the second half.

    To me this shows a completely stupid and ridiculous over-compensation to make a vanishingly small group marginally happier at the cost of everyone else. Its self indulgent twaddle.
    I agree with that. Moreover , to a large extent I believe the demand for All Women Shortlists within the Labour Party in the mid-1990s - under Blair - reflected the narrow views of activists - rather than the electorate at large.I recall no pressure from the wider public for such a move.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,448
    The EU is using Dublin like a dockside hooker.

    Most likely outcome of this is Irexit in 10-15 years max.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283

    Pulpstar said:

    2nd - like me on Thursday!

    Which ward are you running in, and do you
    a) Want
    b) Expect

    to win ? ;)
    Put it this way - if I achieve a 30% swing I'll still lose!
    Good luck Sandy!

    I am a little bit closer, I need a 10.5% swing to win the ward I am standing in but still a long shot
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,520
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    2nd - like me on Thursday!

    Which ward are you running in, and do you
    a) Want
    b) Expect

    to win ? ;)
    Put it this way - if I achieve a 30% swing I'll still lose!
    Good luck Sandy!

    I am a little bit closer, I need a 10.5% swing to win the ward I am standing in but still a long shot
    I suspect you are in the former hunting ground of John Biggs- Davidson?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156

    Pulpstar said:

    2nd - like me on Thursday!

    Which ward are you running in, and do you
    a) Want
    b) Expect

    to win ? ;)
    Put it this way - if I achieve a 30% swing I'll still lose!
    If it's Harewood you're running in for Labour then you'll take it with a 30% swing, so Gipton & Harehills as either Green or TUSC I presume... ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,283
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    2nd - like me on Thursday!

    Which ward are you running in, and do you
    a) Want
    b) Expect

    to win ? ;)
    Put it this way - if I achieve a 30% swing I'll still lose!
    Good luck Sandy!

    I am a little bit closer, I need a 10.5% swing to win the ward I am standing in but still a long shot
    I suspect you are in the former hunting ground of John Biggs- Davidson?
    Indeed and Tebbit, Steve Norris and Churchill too at one time or another, currently Deputy Speaker Eleanor Laing is our MP but this is council level only of course
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,182
    edited May 1
    I see Viscount Hailsham AKA (AKA Douglas Hogg Ex-MP) was one of the Tory Peers voting to block the democratic will of the British people over Brexit... The same multi-millionaire Viscount Hailsham who charged tax-payers £2000 to have his moat cleaned.

    #forshame #forshame

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5310069/MPs-expenses-Clearing-the-moat-at-Douglas-Hoggs-manor.html
  • glwglw Posts: 4,510

    glw said:

    Looking at that you might think that racism must be compulsory in the Labour Party now.
    Along with being a conspiracy theory nutter who only gets their news from Russia today and the morning star...
    The parallels with Trumpism are obvious to me, a different politics obviously but the behaviour is almost identical.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,742
    "The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parliament is unlikely even to take his seat"

    "His"? ???
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,084

    The abstentionalist position is eternal and for ever but a united island of Ireland looks to now be on the horizon. Thanks to Brexit,a border poll seems inevitable.

    Just nonsense

    the abstensionist position also applied to the RoI then was changed
    the abstenstionist position also applied to Stormont then changed
    at some point it will change for Westminster as people get pissed of not being represented

    as for a UI we have yet to see how the south will afford it and if there are enough people up north who want 30% cut in their living standard

    NI is pluraliity catholic under the age of 35 consistently a large chunk of that community show no great urge for unification . In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing.


    As for Brexit and a border poll imo the two parties which always go to the brink and beyond ( NI and EU ) will simply come up with another fudge as they always do
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,528
    edited May 1
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."

    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.

    My wife was at the Women of Scotland lunch a week ago. One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. A transgender friend had apparently told her how wonderful this was. I suspect that there are a very large number of crossed legs in the second half.

    To me this shows a completely stupid and ridiculous over-compensation to make a vanishingly small group marginally happier at the cost of everyone else. Its self indulgent twaddle.
    Quote: One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. Unquote

    Blimey, you’d think people could make up their minds before that point in the day!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
    Is it wrong to say I wouldn't mind being a woman for 24 hours just so I can figure out how they "work" ?

    Typical man thinks he can understand everything about being a woman in just 1 day...

    ;-)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,520
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    2nd - like me on Thursday!

    Which ward are you running in, and do you
    a) Want
    b) Expect

    to win ? ;)
    Put it this way - if I achieve a 30% swing I'll still lose!
    Good luck Sandy!

    I am a little bit closer, I need a 10.5% swing to win the ward I am standing in but still a long shot
    I suspect you are in the former hunting ground of John Biggs- Davidson?
    Indeed and Tebbit, Steve Norris and Churchill too at one time or another, currently Deputy Speaker Eleanor Laing is our MP but this is council level only of course
    Biggs-Davidson held the former Chigwell seat until it ceased to exist in February 1974 - when he became MP for the new Epping Forest division. Tebbit defeated Stan Newens in the old Epping seat in 1970 and from 1974 he represented Chingford. I believe Churchill represnted a much bigger - and more rural - Epping seat from 1924 until 1945 . Thereafter, he had the much more compact seat of Woodford.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,528

    The abstentionalist position is eternal and for ever but a united island of Ireland looks to now be on the horizon. Thanks to Brexit,a border poll seems inevitable.

    Just nonsense

    the abstensionist position also applied to the RoI then was changed
    the abstenstionist position also applied to Stormont then changed
    at some point it will change for Westminster as people get pissed of not being represented

    as for a UI we have yet to see how the south will afford it and if there are enough people up north who want 30% cut in their living standard

    NI is pluraliity catholic under the age of 35 consistently a large chunk of that community show no great urge for unification . In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing.


    As for Brexit and a border poll imo the two parties which always go to the brink and beyond ( NI and EU ) will simply come up with another fudge as they always do
    Quote: In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing. Unquote.

    Ah, but are they Protestant no religionists or Catholic ones?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,835

    tlg86 said:

    Nominations for the by-election:

    Sinn Féin - Órfhlaith Begley
    DUP - Thomas Buchanan
    Alliance - Stephen Donnelly
    SDLP - Daniel McCrossan
    UUP - Chris Smyth

    Does NI not do comedy by-election candidates?

    Yes they're called [Sinn Féin/the DUP] (delete as applicable)
    "DUP-Sinn Fein"! Lord Maginnis actually said that in the wake of the Ulster Unionists losing West Tyrone in 1997 (I think)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,334

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
    Unfortunately you would be considered transphobic by most of the modern left.
    In good company with germaine Greer and Peter tatchell.
    Their argument is different. To them, it doesn't matter if you go through a process, however long it takes - you still do not have the experience of a cisgender woman.

    @Cyclefree

    Please could you identify a"fake" transgender person who wants to use women's toilets but who should not be allowed to, because I can only assume a legal process is a question of "fake"/"real".

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,334

    tlg86 said:

    Nominations for the by-election:

    Sinn Féin - Órfhlaith Begley
    DUP - Thomas Buchanan
    Alliance - Stephen Donnelly
    SDLP - Daniel McCrossan
    UUP - Chris Smyth

    Does NI not do comedy by-election candidates?

    Yes they're called [Sinn Féin/the DUP] (delete as applicable)
    "DUP-Sinn Fein"! Lord Maginnis actually said that in the wake of the Ulster Unionists losing West Tyrone in 1997 (I think)
    Don't think call them SF-IRA in some parts? That would make the whole lot the DUP-Sinn-Féin-IRA which is a bit of a mouthful.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,733
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    2nd - like me on Thursday!

    Which ward are you running in, and do you
    a) Want
    b) Expect

    to win ? ;)
    Put it this way - if I achieve a 30% swing I'll still lose!
    Good luck Sandy!

    I am a little bit closer, I need a 10.5% swing to win the ward I am standing in but still a long shot
    May we both get the results we deserve...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
    Is it wrong to say I wouldn't mind being a woman for 24 hours just so I can figure out how they "work" ?
    Not quite the same but here Blair White lives as a man for the day:

  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,349

    The abstentionalist position is eternal and for ever but a united island of Ireland looks to now be on the horizon. Thanks to Brexit,a border poll seems inevitable.

    Just nonsense

    the abstensionist position also applied to the RoI then was changed
    the abstenstionist position also applied to Stormont then changed
    at some point it will change for Westminster as people get pissed of not being represented

    as for a UI we have yet to see how the south will afford it and if there are enough people up north who want 30% cut in their living standard

    NI is pluraliity catholic under the age of 35 consistently a large chunk of that community show no great urge for unification . In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing.


    As for Brexit and a border poll imo the two parties which always go to the brink and beyond ( NI and EU ) will simply come up with another fudge as they always do
    Quote: In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing. Unquote.

    Ah, but are they Protestant no religionists or Catholic ones?
    A friend of mine was once asked "Are you a Protestant Jew or a Catholic Jew?"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,197

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
    Unfortunately you would be considered transphobic by most of the modern left.
    In good company with germaine Greer and Peter tatchell.
    Their argument is different. To them, it doesn't matter if you go through a process, however long it takes - you still do not have the experience of a cisgender woman.

    @Cyclefree

    Please could you identify a"fake" transgender person who wants to use women's toilets but who should not be allowed to, because I can only assume a legal process is a question of "fake"/"real".

    On the other hand:

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,416

    The abstentionalist position is eternal and for ever but a united island of Ireland looks to now be on the horizon. Thanks to Brexit,a border poll seems inevitable.

    Just nonsense

    the abstensionist position also applied to the RoI then was changed
    the abstenstionist position also applied to Stormont then changed
    at some point it will change for Westminster as people get pissed of not being represented

    as for a UI we have yet to see how the south will afford it and if there are enough people up north who want 30% cut in their living standard

    NI is pluraliity catholic under the age of 35 consistently a large chunk of that community show no great urge for unification . In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing.


    As for Brexit and a border poll imo the two parties which always go to the brink and beyond ( NI and EU ) will simply come up with another fudge as they always do
    Quote: In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing. Unquote.

    Ah, but are they Protestant no religionists or Catholic ones?
    When I got married to an Irish girl in Ireland fifty years ago, I was asked by the Catholic priest about my religion. When I replied I was an atheist he said "Thank God. I thought you might be a Protestant".
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,733
    I would have thought that women are more likely to bogusly self-identify as men to access male toilets, as their usually isn't such a long queue.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Rex, I remember someone here posting that Tim Marshall's replacement on Sky, covering a terrorist attack in India, described the site as a Hindu Mosque.

    .....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,334
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
    Unfortunately you would be considered transphobic by most of the modern left.
    In good company with germaine Greer and Peter tatchell.
    Their argument is different. To them, it doesn't matter if you go through a process, however long it takes - you still do not have the experience of a cisgender woman.

    @Cyclefree

    Please could you identify a"fake" transgender person who wants to use women's toilets but who should not be allowed to, because I can only assume a legal process is a question of "fake"/"real".

    On the other hand:

    Cyclefree does not appear to be concerned with cisgender women being "fake" transgender men, although I'll take it. The irony of it being motivated by exactly the fear Cyclefree has is not lost though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,197

    I would have thought that women are more likely to bogusly self-identify as men to access male toilets, as their usually isn't such a long queue.

    When they see the state of male bogs, they are highly likely to retreat to the queue!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,528
    Barnesian said:

    The abstentionalist position is eternal and for ever but a united island of Ireland looks to now be on the horizon. Thanks to Brexit,a border poll seems inevitable.

    Just nonsense

    the abstensionist position also applied to the RoI then was changed
    the abstenstionist position also applied to Stormont then changed
    at some point it will change for Westminster as people get pissed of not being represented

    as for a UI we have yet to see how the south will afford it and if there are enough people up north who want 30% cut in their living standard

    NI is pluraliity catholic under the age of 35 consistently a large chunk of that community show no great urge for unification . In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing.


    As for Brexit and a border poll imo the two parties which always go to the brink and beyond ( NI and EU ) will simply come up with another fudge as they always do
    Quote: In any event the fastest growing segment in NI is no religion which is impacting the sectarian headcount on both sides. No religion was 17% at the last census and growing. Unquote.

    Ah, but are they Protestant no religionists or Catholic ones?
    When I got married to an Irish girl in Ireland fifty years ago, I was asked by the Catholic priest about my religion. When I replied I was an atheist he said "Thank God. I thought you might be a Protestant".
    A relation, not Itish is a cradle Catholic, but her parents subsequently left the Church and AFAIK she’s never been inside a Church of any sort except for ‘social’ events.... weddings and such. However, post Uni she took up with a Norn Protestant lad, some of whose family expressed concernern at his marrying ‘one of them’.
    That was about 16-17 years ago.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,835
    edited May 1

    tlg86 said:

    Nominations for the by-election:

    Sinn Féin - Órfhlaith Begley
    DUP - Thomas Buchanan
    Alliance - Stephen Donnelly
    SDLP - Daniel McCrossan
    UUP - Chris Smyth

    Does NI not do comedy by-election candidates?

    Yes they're called [Sinn Féin/the DUP] (delete as applicable)
    "DUP-Sinn Fein"! Lord Maginnis actually said that in the wake of the Ulster Unionists losing West Tyrone in 1997 (I think)
    Ooops - he said it in 2001 on Election Night when he himself lost Fermanagh & South Tyrone. I think he accused the DUP of splitting the Unionist vote, letting SF in.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,131
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."

    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.

    My wife was at the Women of Scotland lunch a week ago. One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. A transgender friend had apparently told her how wonderful this was. I suspect that there are a very large number of crossed legs in the second half.

    To me this shows a completely stupid and ridiculous over-compensation to make a vanishingly small group marginally happier at the cost of everyone else. Its self indulgent twaddle.
    What on earth is the problem with gender neutral loos? Surely women should welcome this given the disparity at theatres especially in queue length when there are gendered loos?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,349
    edited May 1

    Mr. Rex, I remember someone here posting that Tim Marshall's replacement on Sky, covering a terrorist attack in India, described the site as a Hindu Mosque.

    .....

    I think he actually described the Sri Harmandir Sahib as a mosque, when of course it is actually one of the most sacred sites of Sikhism.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,197
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."

    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.

    My wife was at the Women of Scotland lunch a week ago. One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. A transgender friend had apparently told her how wonderful this was. I suspect that there are a very large number of crossed legs in the second half.

    To me this shows a completely stupid and ridiculous over-compensation to make a vanishingly small group marginally happier at the cost of everyone else. Its self indulgent twaddle.
    What on earth is the problem with gender neutral loos? Surely women should welcome this given the disparity at theatres especially in queue length when there are gendered loos?
    As long as it is all cubicles, no problem, but mixing urinals and cubicles probably not.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,338
    Foxy said:

    I would have thought that women are more likely to bogusly self-identify as men to access male toilets, as their usually isn't such a long queue.

    When they see the state of male bogs, they are highly likely to retreat to the queue!
    I thought the women’s was supposed to be the most hideous? Perhaps they are both equally as bad. :p
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Rex, I stand corrected :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,131
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argumenng I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."

    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.

    My wife was at the Women of Scotland lunch a week ago. One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. A transgender friend had apparently told her how wonderful this was. I suspect that there are a very large number of crossed legs in the second half.

    To me this shows a completely stupid and ridiculous over-compensation to make a vanishingly small group marginally happier at the cost of everyone else. Its self indulgent twaddle.
    What on earth is the problem with gender neutral loos? Surely women should welcome this given the disparity at theatres especially in queue length when there are gendered loos?
    As long as it is all cubicles, no problem, but mixing urinals and cubicles probably not.

    Yes I can see that would be an issue.

    Cubicles though seem a no-brainer and welcome for women as I (and @SandyRentool) noted.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,544
    edited May 1
    Unless the polls are completely wrong, the Tories ought to be looking to make gains outside London on Thursday. Why? Compare the opinion polls now with those just before the 2014 local elections. Labour were clearly ahead at that time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 18,178
    OT

    33% support Trumps visit

    33% not bothered either way

    31% against.

    Also haven't there been two polls today with 5% and 3% conservative leads
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. JS, any views on Trafford? I just checked my records and so far I want Labour to win there, Lib Dems to win in Sutton and the Conservatives to keep Barnet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,670

    I would have thought that women are more likely to bogusly self-identify as men to access male toilets, as their usually isn't such a long queue.

    They would have to go into the men's toilets though, which is an experience to put them off for life.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,544

    Mr. JS, any views on Trafford? I just checked my records and so far I want Labour to win there, Lib Dems to win in Sutton and the Conservatives to keep Barnet.

    Trafford is likely to be one of Labour's better results due to favourable demographics. Your prediction looks good in all three places.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,528
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."


    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.

    My wife was at the Women of Scotland lunch a week ago. One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. A transgender friend had apparently told her how wonderful this was. I suspect that there are a very large number of crossed legs in the second half.

    To me this shows a completely stupid and ridiculous over-compensation to make a vanishingly small group marginally happier at the cost of everyone else. Its self indulgent twaddle.
    What on earth is the problem with gender neutral loos? Surely women should welcome this given the disparity at theatres especially in queue length when there are gendered loos?
    As long as it is all cubicles, no problem, but mixing urinals and cubicles probably not.

    Mixing urinals and cubicles as a means of screaming’gender equality’ is plain daft.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,383
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Not exactly a nail biter is it? The absorption of almost all of the Catholic vote by Sinn Fein is one of the most depressing outcomes of the GFA.

    Hardly surprising since the British and Irish governments had determinedly undermined the peaceful parties e.g. the SDLP.

    How do you think they did that? It doesn't obviously seem in either the Tory's or Labour's interests. They have both lost their more natural supporters.
    They did it by not giving them any wins at the start of the Troubles. So the nationalist population worked out that to get anything out of the British they needed to vote for the hard men. Which is what they did. The fact that neither party competed for votes there did not help either.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,334

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, yesterday I enraged a few on here by saying that I did not think prostitution was something to be encouraged.

    So, today, I'm going to try enrage a few more and post my response to @NickPalmer (fpt) on transgender people on all-women shortlists.

    This is what Mr P said:

    "I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition."


    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.

    My wife was at the Women of Scotland lunch a week ago. One of the women present was in charge of some of the theatres in Edinburgh. She explained that they only had gender neutral toilets with urinals beside the cubicles. A transgender friend had apparently told her how wonderful this was. I suspect that there are a very large number of crossed legs in the second half.

    To me this shows a completely stupid and ridiculous over-compensation to make a vanishingly small group marginally happier at the cost of everyone else. Its self indulgent twaddle.
    What on earth is the problem with gender neutral loos? Surely women should welcome this given the disparity at theatres especially in queue length when there are gendered loos?
    As long as it is all cubicles, no problem, but mixing urinals and cubicles probably not.

    Mixing urinals and cubicles as a means of screaming’gender equality’ is plain daft.
    You could do that in a men's loo if you wanted to... there's a reason you don't...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,670
    Made it to sunny Valencia, the flight was extremely bumpy along the way. Now 5 days of relaxation in the sun with my soon to be wife.

    Life tip, never have a big wedding. It's the world's worst idea. Not only are people deciding things without our consent, we're going to end up paying for it all. We've come here to have a bit of calm before we go back and lay down the law. So far the total cost is coming in at £85k, which is, IMO way, way too much money being burned for one day of our lives.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,383

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    Cyclefree said:

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.


    I am yet to see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.
    Is it wrong to say I wouldn't mind being a woman for 24 hours just so I can figure out how they "work" ?
    24 hours? Darling, you need a lifetime to work out how we "work". Even our beloveds - after years of living with us - seem to have difficulty understanding this.

    :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,544
    Just looked through the previous thread and couldn't find any comments referring to today's Guardian/ICM poll.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,131
    MaxPB said:

    Made it to sunny Valencia, the flight was extremely bumpy along the way. Now 5 days of relaxation in the sun with my soon to be wife.

    Life tip, never have a big wedding. It's the world's worst idea. Not only are people deciding things without our consent, we're going to end up paying for it all. We've come here to have a bit of calm before we go back and lay down the law. So far the total cost is coming in at £85k, which is, IMO way, way too much money being burned for one day of our lives.

    Life tip #2: stay off PB when you and your beloved are having a romantic trip to Valencia.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,742
    Why is this thread mostly discussing transgender issues?
    Is Orfhlaith Begley transgender?
    Is that why the headline refers to her as "his"?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,670
    edited May 1
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Made it to sunny Valencia, the flight was extremely bumpy along the way. Now 5 days of relaxation in the sun with my soon to be wife.

    Life tip, never have a big wedding. It's the world's worst idea. Not only are people deciding things without our consent, we're going to end up paying for it all. We've come here to have a bit of calm before we go back and lay down the law. So far the total cost is coming in at £85k, which is, IMO way, way too much money being burned for one day of our lives.

    Life tip #2: stay off PB when you and your beloved are having a romantic trip to Valencia.
    She's putting her face on so I've got a bit of time lol.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,544
    Most recent 15 opinion polls: 1 Labour lead, which was ComRes on 12th April.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    MaxPB said:

    Made it to sunny Valencia, the flight was extremely bumpy along the way. Now 5 days of relaxation in the sun with my soon to be wife.

    Life tip, never have a big wedding. It's the world's worst idea. Not only are people deciding things without our consent, we're going to end up paying for it all. We've come here to have a bit of calm before we go back and lay down the law. So far the total cost is coming in at £85k, which is, IMO way, way too much money being burned for one day of our lives.

    Ouch!
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,349
    MaxPB said:

    Made it to sunny Valencia, the flight was extremely bumpy along the way. Now 5 days of relaxation in the sun with my soon to be wife.

    Life tip, never have a big wedding. It's the world's worst idea. Not only are people deciding things without our consent, we're going to end up paying for it all. We've come here to have a bit of calm before we go back and lay down the law. So far the total cost is coming in at £85k, which is, IMO way, way too much money being burned for one day of our lives.

    Strewth.

    Would it be tactless at this point to ask if you ever saw the last few minutes of The Graduate??
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,383

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
    Unfortunately you would be considered transphobic by most of the modern left.
    In good company with germaine Greer and Peter tatchell.
    Their argument is different. To them, it doesn't matter if you go through a process, however long it takes - you still do not have the experience of a cisgender woman.

    @Cyclefree

    Please could you identify a"fake" transgender person who wants to use women's toilets but who should not be allowed to, because I can only assume a legal process is a question of "fake"/"real".

    The dividing line should be a medical diagnosis and the start of treatment.

    Not someone waking up one morning and deciding that they "identify" as a woman.

    If I were to announce in 15 minutes time that I "identified" as a man it wouldn't make me a man (or, indeed, transgender) nor should it allow me to wander into men's loos at will or compete in the men's section of Wimbledon Tennis, for instance.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,544
    edited May 1
    I've seen women brazenly walk into men's toilets lots of times in order to avoid the long queues at the female facilities. One example was at the NEC about five years ago. Usually it's a group of young women walking in together, presumably after psyching each other up to do it.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 357

    OT

    33% support Trumps visit

    33% not bothered either way

    31% against.

    Also haven't there been two polls today with 5% and 3% conservative leads

    Matt Singh thinks there's another poll coming.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,017
    Mr. Max, blimey.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,543
    @AndyJS nunuone posted it on the previous thread.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,670
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @Cyclefree

    "A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly."

    I am see any evidence that more than a trivial number of these people exist.

    All the people I know (admittedly only a handful) who consider themselves transgender have spent years and years establishing/coming to terms with that.

    I am sure. But they usually do so with the help of doctors and others etc. There seem to be some - maybe a very few who are vocal - who are not doing this. I do not like the idea (or the proposal from the government) that someone can call themselves a woman without any sort of independent verification or medical diagnosis and, thereby, get access to women's changing rooms, hostels, loos etc. That seems to me to leave an obvious loophole for a man intent on malice to get access to women when they are vulnerable.
    Unfortunately you would be considered transphobic by most of the modern left.
    In good company with germaine Greer and Peter tatchell.
    Their argument is different. To them, it doesn't matter if you go through a process, however long it takes - you still do not have the experience of a cisgender woman.

    @Cyclefree

    Please could you identify a"fake" transgender person who wants to use women's toilets but who should not be allowed to, because I can only assume a legal process is a question of "fake"/"real".

    The dividing line should be a medical diagnosis and the start of treatment.

    Not someone waking up one morning and deciding that they "identify" as a woman.

    If I were to announce in 15 minutes time that I "identified" as a man it wouldn't make me a man (or, indeed, transgender) nor should it allow me to wander into men's loos at will or compete in the men's section of Wimbledon Tennis, for instance.
    In some parts of the US it would be enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,156
    Cyclefree said:


    If I were to announce in 15 minutes time that I "identified" as a man it wouldn't make me a man (or, indeed, transgender) nor should it allow me to wander into men's loos at will

    Noone will care or say a word if you were wondering :)
This discussion has been closed.