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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far tonight LAB doing worse than expectations while the Lib Dems and the Tories doing better

The BBC count at 0249 pic.twitter.com/akC9ahqCsp

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FrancisUrquhart

First unlike labour...

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

First unlike labour...

VanillaForums ate my first

Quincel

Other than Hillingdon, Labour are actually doing decently in London. Progress in Wandsworth, Westminster, and elsewhere. A good sign for them in Barnet, except those Jewish wards up north went poorly, and the rumours from the count are tight...

Pulpstar

Quincel said:

Other than Hillingdon, Labour are actually doing decently in London. Progress in Wandsworth, Westminster, and elsewhere. A good sign for them in Barnet, except those Jewish wards up north went poorly, and the rumours from the count are tight...

London is GE2017 in reverse in terms of expectations.

Quincel

A note for Wandsworth: In Shaftesbury ward a Tory councillor left to be independent some time back and then joined Renew. Ladbrokes had 4/1 on Renew holding his seat (or winning another in Wandworth, but realistically...). I wasn't tempted by those odds, but will be interesting to see the full result there.

old_labour

The results in small town England will increase pressure on TMay not to backslide on Brexit.

felix

Yes - a mixed picture in Wandsworth - not sure the Tories will hold on now.

nunuone

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992222851028652033

AndyJS

Most surprising result of the night so far — Labour leader of Derby council loses his seat to UKIP.

Artist

Why would people vote Labour in Plymouth if defence was the issue as Mercer claims?

RobD

Artist said:

Why would people vote Labour in Plymouth if defence was the issue as Mercer claims?

Punishment for Tory defence cuts?

Quincel

Artist said:

Why would people vote Labour in Plymouth if defence was the issue as Mercer claims?

I was thinking that. Like he picked up some talking points drafted 15 years ago and didn't check the date.

NeilVW

AndyJS said:

Most surprising result of the night so far — Labour leader of Derby council loses his seat to UKIP.

Got to be a kick in the nads to lose your seat to an effectively defunct joke of a party.

Pulpstar

Bad 5 minutes for Mercer4leader fans...

RobD

Pulpstar said:

Bad 5 minutes for Mercer4leader fans...

Not to worry, TSE is asleep

AndyJS

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992222851028652033

Apparently Derby council is very unpopular at the moment.

nunuone

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/992224452980207616

IanB2

Not too many parliamentary targets for Labour in London.

Quincel

The Lib Dems complain, not entirely unfairly, about how FPTP hurts them. I'm always amazed at how poorly the Greens convert votes into seats. Nowadays they don't poll that much less than the Lib Dems at times, but get a fraction of the councillors.

old_labour

Congratulations to @Gaz on his/her win.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/992224534920073221
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/992225953240805376

bigjohnowls

FrancisUrquhart said:

First unlike labour...

You are Dianne Abbot I claim my prize.

AndyJS

Unexpected result: apparently the Tories have gained the Village ward on Trafford council from the LDs.

https://twitter.com/TraffordCouncil/status/992212977729376257

spudgfsh

AndyJS said:

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992222851028652033

Apparently Derby council is very unpopular at the moment.

I did the pub quiz earlier with the team name of "Vote Muppet! you'll get one anyway!" and that's what derby city council has had for the last 5 years,

old_labour

BBC: Johnny Mercer saying Labour has won Plymouth.

Pulpstar

old_labour said:

BBC: Johnny Mercer saying Labour has won Plymouth.

The south coast seems to be where Labour have outperformed.

Pulpstar

Early analysis suggests 1.5% swing from Tories to Labour in London, 1% swing to Tories outside, says BBC

Pro_Rata

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/992224452980207616

I had the impression that Horbury was a little too nappy valley remainy for that kind of swing, even with half of Ossett tagged on.

david_herdson

NeilVW said:

AndyJS said:

Most surprising result of the night so far — Labour leader of Derby council loses his seat to UKIP.

Got to be a kick in the nads to lose your seat to an effectively defunct joke of a party.

You think UKIP's defunct. I have an SDP candidate in the ward I'm 'contesting'.

old_labour

BBC seem to have more up-to-date results than Sky. It is usually the other way around.

BigRich

NeilVW said:

AndyJS said:

Most surprising result of the night so far — Labour leader of Derby council loses his seat to UKIP.

Got to be a kick in the nads to lose your seat to an effectively defunct joke of a party.

Has somebody lost a seat to Labor

MarqueeMark

Artist said:

Why would people vote Labour in Plymouth if defence was the issue as Mercer claims?

Plymouth was always an impossible hold - the votes for UKIP came from Labour and are going back to Labour. Labour only needed 2 gains for control. CCHQ knew it was a lost cause - hence no big beast visits....

nunuone

https://twitter.com/NickMartinSKY/status/992219871026077696?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://news.sky.com/story/live-polls-close-in-fight-for-150-english-councils-11357324&tfw_site=skynews

teeeeeeerrrible night......

RobD

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/NickMartinSKY/status/992219871026077696?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://news.sky.com/story/live-polls-close-in-fight-for-150-english-councils-11357324&tfw_site=skynews

teeeeeeerrrible night......

Not enough r's in that tweet....

Pulpstar

Khan has left the count.
https://twitter.com/SW_Londoner/status/992228276411207681

old_labour

David Herdson
‏ @DavidHerdson

The Yorkshire Party score what must be one of their best shares in a first-tier authority election, in Castleford Central and Glasshoughton (Wakefield):

JEFFERY, Denise (Lab) 1652 (60.9%)
PHELPS, Paul (Yrk) 684 (25.2%)
SMART, Joanne (Con) 377 (13.9%)

#LE2018

Pulpstar

Tom Brake and Laura have good points here. The CABINET should have agreed a position between themselves by now !

Pro_Rata

Pro_Rata said:

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/992224452980207616

I had the impression that Horbury was a little too nappy valley remainy for that kind of swing, even with half of Ossett tagged on.

Missed the edit: my impression may be coloured by my patronage of a specialist barometer repair shop and my wife's of an all non-comedogenic beauty salon in the village in the past.

And on that nonsense, glad to say my out of hours IT implementation looks happy, and I can go to bed.

david_herdson

Pro_Rata said:

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/992224452980207616

I had the impression that Horbury was a little too nappy valley remainy for that kind of swing, even with half of Ossett tagged on.

I don't think so. I'm not going to denigrate the land of my father's (literally - he was born and grew up there), but there were always opportunities with the right campaign and a good candidate.

BigRich

Lab net gains are now +10, for what ever reason, it seems that the early results where from places that they where under-preforming in.

Quincel

Labour simply can't be close to winning Wandsworth but not gain Barnet. Right...? Please...?

NeilVW

BigRich said:

Lab net gains are now +10, for what ever reason, it seems that the early results where from places that they where under-preforming in.

London results trickling in. Con steady in the range of +30 to +40 for a while now.

old_labour

Luisa Attfield
@l_attfield
2m2 minutes ago

First result for Barnet. In Underhill- all 3 labour candidates re elected with increased majorities!

AndyJS

Labour win all seats in Barking & Dagenham.

Popular vote:

Lab 76.65%
Con 22.34%

Turnout: 29.54%

https://modgov.lbbd.gov.uk/Internet/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=5&RPID=7530995

Pulpstar

Quincel said:

Labour simply can't be close to winning Wandsworth but not gain Barnet. Right...? Please...?

An independent has a seat there, I think that brings NOC into play.

old_labour

I agree with this.

Labour’s performance in leave areas shows wisdom of Corbyn approach

spudgfsh

labour in Derby have now lost the leader of the council AND the mayor. one to UKIP and the other to Tory. on top of that they've lost overall control of the council.

david_herdson

Pro_Rata said:

Pro_Rata said:

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/992224452980207616

I had the impression that Horbury was a little too nappy valley remainy for that kind of swing, even with half of Ossett tagged on.

Missed the edit: my impression may be coloured by my patronage of a specialist barometer repair shop and my wife's of an all non-comedogenic beauty salon in the village in the past.

And on that nonsense, glad to say my out of hours IT implementation looks happy, and I can go to bed.

Sadly, the barometer repair shop has shut - which is a shame as I have one that needs repairing.

In other news, Con gain Ossett (Wakefield) from UKIP. Ker-ching. 2 up.

AndyJS

Tories picking up seats in the Sutton & Cheam half of Sutton council in south London.

AndyJS

Quincel said:

Labour simply can't be close to winning Wandsworth but not gain Barnet. Right...? Please...?

Barnet council are famous for taking forever to count votes. Not sure why.

old_labour

spudgfsh said:

labour in Derby have now lost the leader of the council AND the mayor. one to UKIP and the other to Tory. on top of that they've lost overall control of the council.

The folly of the remainers in the Labour party coming home to roost.

old_labour

AndyJS said:

Tories picking up seats in the Sutton & Cheam half of Sutton council in south London.

Maybe they do not like nimbys.

AndyJS

With half the results in, there are no net changes in terms of councils, and almost no net changes in terms of councillors.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

Tories picking up seats in the Sutton & Cheam half of Sutton council in south London.

Sutton putting up who won the wards but not their party..

AndyJS

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

Tories picking up seats in the Sutton & Cheam half of Sutton council in south London.

Sutton putting up who won the wards but not their party..

You'd expect them to have one of the best websites in the country.

Pulpstar

https://twitter.com/SW_Londoner/status/992233887223959557

felix

Classic from @DawnButlerBrent attempting to defend her party: “Labour councils have proved themselves to be competent... and that is unprecedented”

ROFL

RobD

felix said:

Classic from @DawnButlerBrent attempting to defend her party: “Labour councils have proved themselves to be competent... and that is unprecedented”

ROFL

LOL

I suppose it is 4am

Pulpstar

What I really need is NOC Wandsworth.

nunuone

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/992235230609137664

Quincel

RobD said:

felix said:

Classic from @DawnButlerBrent attempting to defend her party: “Labour councils have proved themselves to be competent... and that is unprecedented”

ROFL

LOL

I suppose it is 4am

I did enjoy her logic that people had voted against Labour councils in some areas because the government has cut council funding. Doubtless council funding has been cut, and that has forced councils to make some unpopular decisions - but why wouldn't that affect the Tory councils too?

justin124

Unusual to see all the main parties making gains - albeit very modestly overall. At the moment we see Lab +16 Con +25 LD +26 Green +5.

nunuone

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992235605621985280

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/992234991638732801

RobD

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992235605621985280

Not according to plan

Artist

Sounds like it's 50/50 whether Labour will even gain Barnet.

Quincel

Well the Labour head in Barnet comes across as a really decent guy, imho. Not very political, if you know what I mean.

CarlottaVance

old_labour said:

I agree with this.

Labour’s performance in leave areas shows wisdom of Corbyn approach

Labour MPs who are, intentionally or idiotically, helping the Tories by making a big noise about Brexit – instead of letting the Tories’ incompetence bring them down while Labour focuses on the NHS, jobs, wages and other more important matters – have no place in the party.

AndyJS

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992235605621985280

That is surprising.

philiph

RobD said:

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992235605621985280

Not according to plan

Owen Jones will be hyperventilating and bemoaning the lack of input from his twitter followers following his chastising and begging then to pound the streets.

Pulpstar

Quincel said:

Well the Labour head in Barnet comes across as a really decent guy, imho. Not very political, if you know what I mean.

For sure.

AndyJS

John Curtis: 1% swing to the Tories outside London, 1% to Labour in London. So far.

NeilVW

CarlottaVance said:

old_labour said:

I agree with this.

Labour’s performance in leave areas shows wisdom of Corbyn approach

Labour MPs who are, intentionally or idiotically, helping the Tories by making a big noise about Brexit – instead of letting the Tories’ incompetence bring them down while Labour focuses on the NHS, jobs, wages and other more important matters – have no place in the party.

Poor results were in areas Corbyn didn’t manage to visit enough, is Skawkbox’s interesting take.

CarlottaVance

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992235605621985280

A relatively less well off part of Westminster:

https://www.westminster.gov.uk/sites/www.westminster.gov.uk/files/churchill-ward-profile.pdf

Quincel

Not sure which wards are left to count in Richmond, but at the moment the Tories are third! That LD/Green coalition looks to have worked wonders, a rare successful example of local alliances.

AndyJS

Pulpstar said:

What I really need is NOC Wandsworth.

Do you have a bet on it? My only bet was Sutton going to NOC and I've just lost that.

RobD

CarlottaVance said:

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992235605621985280

A relatively less well off part of Westminster:

https://www.westminster.gov.uk/sites/www.westminster.gov.uk/files/churchill-ward-profile.pdf

I was looking at the Abbey Road profile document a few hours ago. They are nice and detailed.

Pulpstar

Big Lib Dems gains in Winchester I think.

RobD

Kuenssberg saying Tories may actually be up in Hillingdon.

AndyJS

Dawn Butler accusing Tory policies of being institutionally racist.

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

What I really need is NOC Wandsworth.

Do you have a bet on it? My only bet was Sutton going to NOC and I've just lost that.

This bet has been boosted!
Tories to win majorities in Wandsworth & Westminster
(Local Election Specials)
29/20
2018 Local Elections
Stake
£21.90
Returns
£53.66

Betfair Wandsworth Con -9.20, Lab +12.35, NOC +95.48

I also have a profit on Sutton of £59.50 and right now a less than stellar Barnet bet.

AndyJS

Wandsworth results so far:

Roehampton & Putney Heath: 3 Lab
Tooting: 3 Lab
Thamesfield: 3 Con
Queenstown: 3 Lab
Bedford: 3 Lab
Fairfield: 3 Con
Furzedown: 3 Lab
Southfields: 3 Con
Latchmere: 3 Lab
Wandsworth Common: 3 Con
Balham: 3 Con
East Putney: 3 Con
West Hill: 2 Lab, 1 Ind
West Putney: 3 Con
Graveney: 3 Lab

Totals:

Lab 23
Con 21
Ind 1

Still to declare:

Earlsfield
Nightingale
Northcote
Shaftesbury
St Mary’s Park

nunuone

dawn butler needs a slap

MikeSmithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/992240124040638464?s=20

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/992240124040638464?s=20

Naughty OGH.... shouldn't you be in bed?

nunuone

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992240812426608641

AndyJS

Wandsworth, Northcote: 3 Con holds

Takes the totals to:

Con 24
Lab 23
Ind 1

https://twitter.com/wandbc/status/992240610600894464

RobD

nunuone said:

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992240812426608641

CON Hold. My second favourite phrase in the English language....

AndyJS

Bit of a cliche: in Hillingdon, which voted Leave despite being a London borough, the Tories make gains from Labour.

nunuone

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/992241311511068672

MikeSmithson

RobD said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/992240124040638464?s=20

Naughty OGH.... shouldn't you be in bed?

I.am.in bed

Pulpstar

I don't think Wandsworth is over.

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

RobD said:

MikeSmithson said:

twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/992240124040638464?s=20

Naughty OGH.... shouldn't you be in bed?

I.am.in bed

Pulpstar

https://twitter.com/WandsworthRadio/status/992241824260505601

Lab Gain 1 in St Marys Park

RobD

Pulpstar said:

Big Lib Dems gains in Winchester I think.

Tories have held it in the end.

Pulpstar

3 Shaftesbury, 2 St Marys takes the Tories to 29.

Pulpstar

I *think*

AndyJS

"Wandsworth Council
‏Verified account @wandbc

The winners in St Mary's Park are: Melanie Hampton (Con) 2602, Rhodri Morgan (Con) 2498, Emily Wintle (Lab) 2495"

That's one Lab gain from Con.

https://twitter.com/wandbc/status/992242568258772992

AndyJS

Pulpstar said:

I don't think Wandsworth is over.

Sky News think the Tories have held on narrowly.

AndyJS

3 Con holds in Wandsworth, Shaftesbury.

https://twitter.com/wandbc/status/992242991883370496