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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some will they stay or will they go in 2018 markets
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some will they stay or will they go in 2018 markets
I like these type of markets where you can bet on whether or not X will be in their current job on a certain date.
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Titter ....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44020235
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6220654/theresa-may-labour-election-failures/
Incidentally, it’s loath, not loathe, which is a different word entirely.
(1) It must give Britain freedom to strike trade deals with non-EU countries, (2) maintain a frictionless Irish border and (3) kick in by the end of 2020.
(4) Most importantly, she believes it has to be accepted by Parliament and the EU.
It is that fourth demand that makes us grateful for the incisive thinking of our Oxford-educated Prime Minister.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/6220497/theresa-may-britain-out-eu-customs-union/
If the poison dwarf does bugger off, I hope Hoyle gets the gig.
Not sure if it was the College or the Deanery (an arm of the DoH) that is at fault, but human error apparently, glad I wasn't involved this year!
http://www.st3recruitment.org.uk/news/major-issue-with-st3-2018-r1-process-offers-to-be-re-run
At the recruitment assessment centre candidates are scored acros a number of domains, and put in rank order. The higher the rank candidates then get first pick of speciality training both in terms of speciality, but also region. these places then become more sparse until the lower ranked candidates pick over the leftovers.
https://twitter.com/SanremoAncheNoi/status/987678267179192321?s=19
The government should also be wary of applying its dabs to any Bercow exit process as its' last attempt fronted by Hague was spectacularly ill-judged and rightly failed miserably. That said Bercow's own sunset clause may be his biggest weakness but only if a viable candidate is at hand and his support drifts away. Presently the Speaker remains popular in the Commons and his opponents will have a hard job in prizing him away from the Chair.
https://www.rte.ie/amp/960472/
Mr Bercow became Speaker in 2009, and at the time said he would remain in post for nine years.
But in a move which is likely to infuriate his critics on the Tory benches, it is claimed he will stay in the role until mid-2019.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/news/94930/john-bercow-planning-10-years-speaker-despite-bullying-allegations
* Plodding careerist who ticks the right boxes: Kamala Harris
* Feisty base-pleaser: Elizabeth Warren
* Audacious opportunist: Kirsten Gillibrand
* Old-generation establishment politician with a grip on the machine that the hapless party can't seem to shake off: Hillary Clinton
* Fuck everything, they beat us with a TV star, let's give that a try: Oprah Winfrey
I certainly have little trouble with him allowing the opposition to hold the government to account more frequently.
IMO he will not be seen as a 'good' speaker, but not as a bad one either. Hoyle, on the other hand, has been outstanding as a deputy.
The only way to a diamond-hard Brexit is for the negotiations to collapse. Is that what she really wants? We would face weeks if not months of massive disruption.
Particularly praiseworthy in the stuffy position of Speaker and it doesn't even take an imagination to picture the whisperings and name calling (Poison Dwarf?) that was was going on behind him.
Who better to deal with that than a porn star.
Bob Seely’s gone there.
Writing in The Sunday Times, the Tory MP Bob Seely today questions whether Seumas Milne, Corbyn’s communications director, knowingly peddled the Kremlin’s views on the conflict in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 when he was a columnist for The Guardian newspaper.
Seely has studied leaked emails from aides to Vladimir Putin which show that Russia devised a plan to break up Ukraine by promoting federalism there. He found four instances of Milne repeating the same argument by calling for “regional autonomy”.
Seely also identifies four other messages favoured by the Kremlin in Milne’s writings, including claims that Ukraine was governed by fascists and that Putin’s war was “defensive”.
“I believe the question is not whether Milne was sympathetic to the Kremlin’s agenda, but whether he was — wittingly or not — a fellow traveller or an active agent of influence for the Kremlin. I look forward to challenging Jeremy Corbyn in parliament,” he writes.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/02465610-5076-11e8-84b1-71d01ab2ff8f
Negotiations behind the scenes will be far more well advanced than is generally known. But, because we’re now at the business sharp end, where all the trade-offs are now being weighed up, all sides are flexing a bit of muscle as they jockey for position in the final agreement.
(Yeah, I know, but somebody did this to me the other day!)
Meanwhile Sajid Javid has moved up to third on 10% following his appointment as Home Secretary
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/05/our-next-tory-leader-survey-rees-mogg-leads-gove-by-two-votes-in-over-a-thousand.html
However, if you say his wife's actions have no negative connotations on his role, then you cannot take it positively for his role, either.
And yes, I'm a little fed up with the 'poison dwarf' and similar jibes. There is plenty of reason to criticise Bercow for the way he has performed his role rather than his genetics.
If the Dems are foolish enough to pick Hillary again then it might be more like a toss-up, but I'd favour any of the others to beat him except possibly Harris, who is wooden and has a weak memetic warfare game.
I see Rallings and Thrasher now calculate NEV at 37 Con, 36 Lab, 14 Lib Dem.
It’s quite possible, nay probable, that if the noises about unseating him continue he’ll be more determined to stay in place for longer. I also imagine that he’s relishing causing chaos with regard to the Brexit legislation, and would be quite happy to use the Parliamentary process over which he has control to ensure maximum discomfort for the government.
For example, the NI border is a huge dead cat. It’s not about the NI border, which could easily be solveable if both sides wanted it to be. It’s about the fact Eire (which will stay in the EU) conducts over 80% of its trade with the rest of the EU through the UK’s ferries, ports, roads and tunnels. It therefore needs as simple and streamlined Customs and goods clearance as possible, so all their lorries can be waved through without any bureaucracy. Particularly at Dover and Holyhead.
Intra-Ireland trade is a distraction to this, which is basically just there to put political and moral pressure on HMG to make broader U.K. wide concessions.
It’s not the UK-EU negotiations that particularly worry me. It’s the arithmetic in the Commons and Lords which could prevent the Government from getting crucial legislation in place, and - potentially - lead to its fall.
Maybe he could be more even handed. That said, he is a massive improvement on the late Michael Martin. If the Speaker isn't neutral it's better they're not a further patsy for a government with a majority North of 160.
A Democrat with a genuine vision for America might beat him. Tired old retreads, has beens and never was'ers have no chance. If there is such a democrat he or she is keeping a low profile.
A couple of polls, one of them NOT Rasmussen, have shown Trump's ratings much improved lately:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
They desperately need to find someone in their 40s or 50s who’s going to talk to middle America in the swing states, could well end up going for a governor that no-one really knows yet.
As @DavidL mentions above there’s a good chance of a booming US economy in 2020, for which Trump’s going to take every bit of the credit.
Remember too Trump will be 75 in 2020 so is hardly youthful himself
Younger Governors or Senators in their 40s or 50s tend to get the nomination after 8 or more years of one party in the White House or when the existing President can no longer run for re election e.g. Obama, George W Bush, Bill Clinton, Dukakis, Carter, JFK etc as the voters are more in the mood for change
https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe
My own perspective is more modest. When I was in Primary School, about the time of the 1970 election, our teacher decided to have mock elections to elect our own HoC. As the only one interested in politics, I had been leafleting for Heath believe it or not, I got elected Speaker. What an incredibly frustrating role it was. I have never forgotten how powerless I felt as the debates went careering off into nonsense. I have had a little empathy with Speakers ever since, even Martin.
Either way, overland through the UK will remain the fastest and cheapest route.
They remain convinced that the EU will give us this because it is very much in their economic interests to do so (which it is, of course). The empirical evidence supporting this viewpoint is slight but their conviction means that there are compromises that May is going to find it impossible to sell. Will politics trump economics? That, it seems to me, is the real question.
It's as if Project Fear-ers have learned nothing...
We have been amongst the fastest growing members of the EU since the crash. It was inevitable that some would catch up at some point. Hammond is not nearly as deft as Osborne was either.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44021052
It would of course be idle to speculate why.
I was discussing the differences between our countries last week. The point he made was that practically every bar and restaurant in the Grassmarket had a sign up seeking additional staff. I didn't really notice this until he pointed it out. He said you never see that in Italy where youth unemployment is chronic and jobs are filled through social networks rather than being advertised.
And I expect the economy to do better than that. Q1 was very sluggish, for a variety of reasons, and it has been in the UK for some years.