Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictio

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited May 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did

A key part of election analysis each year are the two academic seat projections which seek to project party Council gains and losses. These play a big part in setting the media narrative over party expectations.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    First! Like Leave, May & No....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    So, versus academic expectations, the Tories did a little bit better than expected, Labour a lot worse and the Lib Dems a lot better.

    Mark Pack has taken a look at how opposition Labour leaders do in the Thrasher & Rallings national vote share calculations post LE.

    Who comes top and who comes bottom?
    You get one guess.....

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/154799/labour-opposition-leaders-local-elections-record/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,861
    edited May 8
    Second.

    "-335 seats to +169" is not a forecast that carries any value or useful information whatsoever.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,460
    Mike - Typo - Second paragraph :

    "Professions Colin Rallings ...."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    As the Harvey Proctor case comes to trial, Tom Watson may find himself and his role coming under increasing scrutiny:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5701623/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-time-Nonce-Finder-General-dock.html
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,007

    As the Harvey Proctor case comes to trial, Tom Watson may find himself and his role coming under increasing scrutiny:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5701623/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-time-Nonce-Finder-General-dock.html

    One of Jeremy Corbyn's very few attributes is the fact that he is not Tom Watson.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,007
    IanB2 said:

    Second.

    "-335 seats to +169" is not a forecast that carries any value or useful information whatsoever.

    Yes it would be more honest to admit he has as much clue as the rest of us .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040

    Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.

    Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,482
    Sandpit said:

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040

    Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.

    Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
    Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,267
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    So not very well then is the answer to how the academics did. It is a brave man or woman who places their bets on their models. Railings and Thrasher at least got each of the directions right although they were out on the quantum. I'm afraid Stephen Fisher is going to have to re-evaluate the worth of his model altogether.

    Its a very good point that Mike makes about the Councils that had all their councillors up. It may be that that fluke significantly exaggerated the Lib Dem performance since almost all their gains were in those 3 Councils masking modest losses elsewhere.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989

    Sandpit said:

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040

    Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.

    Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
    Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?
    But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,591
    Is Sean Fear bracketing himself as a Tory activist these days?

    On topic, I don’t think R&T did too badly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    O/T two good NHS news stories. A few days ago a cricket-watching friend recoiunted, during a quiet period of play...... notn that there were many last Friday at Essex...... anyway he’d been to Chelmsord A&E a couple of weeks ago and been seen at 10am, triaged, seen nurse, been X-rayed and strapped up, and was on his way home soon after noon.
    Yesterday it transiored that during my celebrations Eldest Grandson, playing something with his uncles and cousins had fallen and twisted his knee badly. Went to Southend A7E on Monday and had a similar experience. Went at 9am; patched up and home and recuperating (asleep) by 11.30..
    It’s not all bad!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,591
    tlg86 said:
    Scotland may wish to exit the UK Customs Union.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,525
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hopefully be a bit cooler tonight.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026

    tlg86 said:
    Scotland may wish to exit the UK Customs Union.
    I think you’ll find that’s “the SNP” not “Scotland”....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,779
    tlg86 said:
    The Romans built a wall. Not certain if the Picts paid for it though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026

    O/T two good NHS news stories. A few days ago a cricket-watching friend recoiunted, during a quiet period of play...... notn that there were many last Friday at Essex...... anyway he’d been to Chelmsord A&E a couple of weeks ago and been seen at 10am, triaged, seen nurse, been X-rayed and strapped up, and was on his way home soon after noon.
    Yesterday it transiored that during my celebrations Eldest Grandson, playing something with his uncles and cousins had fallen and twisted his knee badly. Went to Southend A7E on Monday and had a similar experience. Went at 9am; patched up and home and recuperating (asleep) by 11.30..
    It’s not all bad!

    Isn’t there research that says people’s perception of the NHS is poor in “general” but their hospital is actually quite good....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255

    O/T two good NHS news stories. A few days ago a cricket-watching friend recoiunted, during a quiet period of play...... notn that there were many last Friday at Essex...... anyway he’d been to Chelmsord A&E a couple of weeks ago and been seen at 10am, triaged, seen nurse, been X-rayed and strapped up, and was on his way home soon after noon.
    Yesterday it transiored that during my celebrations Eldest Grandson, playing something with his uncles and cousins had fallen and twisted his knee badly. Went to Southend A7E on Monday and had a similar experience. Went at 9am; patched up and home and recuperating (asleep) by 11.30..
    It’s not all bad!

    Isn’t there research that says people’s perception of the NHS is poor in “general” but their hospital is actually quite good....
    IIRC there is.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,108
    He is barely in it with these statements. Boris’s eternal leadership campaign rolls on
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750

    Isn’t there research that says people’s perception of the NHS is poor in “general” but their hospital is actually quite good....

    I can do that in a single anecdote...

    GP says I need an X-ray. Local hospital has a walk-in X-ray service. No appointment necessary. No waiting. No parking charge because it was so quick.

    Amazing.

    A week later return to GP for results. He doesn't have the X-ray. He has a written report from a consultant at the country trust hospital (not the hospital with the X-ray machine)

    Instant X-ray. Great.

    Emailing the image to a consultant who has never examined the patient, to report to a GP who has never seen the image, can't be efficient.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,861
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040

    Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.

    Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
    Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?
    But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
    What goes down in one election can come up in the next. As the swings in some of Thursday's LibDem gains demonstrates.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,866

    Is Sean Fear bracketing himself as a Tory activist these days?

    On topic, I don’t think R&T did too badly.

    Well, I did quite a bit of work for a friend in Shaftesbury Ward.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,192
    Why would he quit? That wouldn't do anything. His best plan would be stay on and wreck it from within.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,535
    Scott_P said:
    What absolute garbage. I have seen no increase whatsoever in the price of beer. I don't drink any of the mental stuff so perhaps that is why , but premium beers have not changed one bit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,615
    It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.

    It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,535
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,275
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    What absolute garbage. I have seen no increase whatsoever in the price of beer. I don't drink any of the mental stuff so perhaps that is why , but premium beers have not changed one bit.
    I think the clue may be in the word ‘minimum’.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    Dura_Ace said:

    Why would he quit? That wouldn't do anything. His best plan would be stay on and wreck it from within.
    Because he could bring down May.....
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,007
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    What absolute garbage. I have seen no increase whatsoever in the price of beer. I don't drink any of the mental stuff so perhaps that is why , but premium beers have not changed one bit.
    I believe that there is an exemption for turnip wine :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,026
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    What absolute garbage. I have seen no increase whatsoever in the price of beer. I don't drink any of the mental stuff so perhaps that is why , but premium beers have not changed one bit.
    If they were costing more than 88p/can they won’t have been affected....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    Scott_P said:

    Isn’t there research that says people’s perception of the NHS is poor in “general” but their hospital is actually quite good....

    I can do that in a single anecdote...

    GP says I need an X-ray. Local hospital has a walk-in X-ray service. No appointment necessary. No waiting. No parking charge because it was so quick.

    Amazing.

    A week later return to GP for results. He doesn't have the X-ray. He has a written report from a consultant at the country trust hospital (not the hospital with the X-ray machine)

    Instant X-ray. Great.

    Emailing the image to a consultant who has never examined the patient, to report to a GP who has never seen the image, can't be efficient.
    Hmm. GP (effectively) asks consultant to look at image. Consultant does so. Tells GP what it looks like. GP has previously examined, presumably has an idea, wants it confirmed or rejected. Gets opinion. Proceeds.
    Seems OK to me.
    I’ve had an MRI scan recently to see if my developing deafness is due to more than ‘just’ fair wear and tear”. Admittedly that was at request of local ENT specialist...... to whom I’d been referred by audiologist, not GP. Three weeks later letter from consultant. All OK.
    Why would I have needed to see a GP?
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,007
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
    I wonder which class is keenest on the cheap stuff. Clue- look at the picture .
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,535

    tlg86 said:
    Scotland may wish to exit the UK Customs Union.
    I think you’ll find that’s “the SNP” not “Scotland”....
    LOL, unionist tax exile upset that the Tories are also rans in Scotland.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,379

    Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....
    Best not to make idle threats if you have no way of carrying them out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.

    We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,535

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    What absolute garbage. I have seen no increase whatsoever in the price of beer. I don't drink any of the mental stuff so perhaps that is why , but premium beers have not changed one bit.
    I think the clue may be in the word ‘minimum’.
    No its the crap posted by unionist losers trying to make out prices have gone up and that a couple of morons drive 20 miles to save 5 pence. The unionist gutter press surpass their right wing " SNP BAD " crap agenda. To the delight of Scottish hating morons like Scottp and Carlotta
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
    I wonder which class is keenest on the cheap stuff. Clue- look at the picture .
    A situation will develop very much like that in SE England years ago. White van man going over to Calais from SE England, loading up at big wine supermarket and bringing it back here.
    The local entrepreneur who did that has died, so we don’t here much about it now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750

    Hmm. GP (effectively) asks consultant to look at image. Consultant does so. Tells GP what it looks like. GP has previously examined, presumably has an idea, wants it confirmed or rejected. Gets opinion. Proceeds.
    Seems OK to me.

    Why not email the image from the hospital to the GP?

    If the GP wanted a second opinion, you might be right, but that was not a requirement in this case.

    The same thing happened with an ultrasound. The GP wanted it done, but never got to see the raw image data, only somebody else's interpretation of it (so it's not really a second opinion; it's 2 different opinions based on 2 different data sets. 1 examination, 1 image. Can't be the best solution...)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,331
    edited May 8
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
    Lidl have changed their weekend discounts since minimum pricing. Instead of reducing their Australian merlot from £5 to £3 a bottle, they now discount their Barolo from £10 to £7. Both astonishing bargains for the quality.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,535
    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:
    What absolute garbage. I have seen no increase whatsoever in the price of beer. I don't drink any of the mental stuff so perhaps that is why , but premium beers have not changed one bit.
    I believe that there is an exemption for turnip wine :)
    It is high quality and far above minimum price.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
    There are significant differences in price on most vodkas, some blended whiskies, cheap wine (Tesco was previously selling bottles down to £4 or even less) and cheap ciders. Some of these have almost doubled in price, especially the vodkas. As I say I personally am persuaded that this is a good thing and that really cheap alcohol was a bad thing causing serious damage to those who take it as well as adverse social consequences. But then, like you, the minimum price has not really affected me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    Scott_P said:

    Hmm. GP (effectively) asks consultant to look at image. Consultant does so. Tells GP what it looks like. GP has previously examined, presumably has an idea, wants it confirmed or rejected. Gets opinion. Proceeds.
    Seems OK to me.

    Why not email the image from the hospital to the GP?

    If the GP wanted a second opinion, you might be right, but that was not a requirement in this case.

    The same thing happened with an ultrasound. The GP wanted it done, but never got to see the raw image data, only somebody else's interpretation of it (so it's not really a second opinion; it's 2 different opinions based on 2 different data sets. 1 examination, 1 image. Can't be the best solution...)
    Suspect it’s open to the GP to see the raw image. All electronically transferable UNLESS the GP isn’t considered within the hospital’s normal catchment area, in which case there could be problems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,189
    Looks like Rallings and Thrasher were the most accurate forecaster, though they slightly underestimated the Tories and LDs and overestimated Labour
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750

    Suspect it’s open to the GP to see the raw image.

    He said not
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....
    They should just scrap the Lords. It is a massive anachronism and overwhelmingly biased towards Londoners.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
    Lidl have changed their weekend discounts since minimum pricing. Instead of reducing their Australian merlot from £5 to £3 a bottle, they now discount their Barolo from £10 to £7. Both astonishing bargains for the quality.
    Wow. £7 for Barolo is superb value. I haven't really got the Lidl habit yet. I may need to review.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    Scott_P said:

    Suspect it’s open to the GP to see the raw image.

    He said not
    Surprised.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,804
    FPT: ' Wandsworth has a homelessness crisis but the scheme has just 9% affordable housing. The homeless are paying the price for decades of Tory failure. '

    Population of Wandsworth:

    2001 260,383
    2011 306,995
    2016 316,100 est

    Perhaps that has something to do with Wandsworth's 'homelessness crisis' ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,881
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
    There are significant differences in price on most vodkas, some blended whiskies, cheap wine (Tesco was previously selling bottles down to £4 or even less) and cheap ciders. Some of these have almost doubled in price, especially the vodkas. As I say I personally am persuaded that this is a good thing and that really cheap alcohol was a bad thing causing serious damage to those who take it as well as adverse social consequences. But then, like you, the minimum price has not really affected me.
    Isnt this just more middle class overlording ?

    The middle classes and professions are currently the nation's heaviest drinkers

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/uk-most-frequent-drinkers-lawyers-doctors-city-professionals-alcohol-consumption-statistics-a8330741.html

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
    Lidl have changed their weekend discounts since minimum pricing. Instead of reducing their Australian merlot from £5 to £3 a bottle, they now discount their Barolo from £10 to £7. Both astonishing bargains for the quality.
    £7 Barolo sounds good :)

    The minimum pricing, at the level it is, won’t have a lot of effect except at the bottom of the market, you’d need to fill a Transit full of cheap lager or pish ‘whisky’ to cover the cost of the trip from say Glasgow to Carlisle. Not good if you’re the manager of Haddows in Gretna though.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 471
    Elliot said:

    Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....
    They should just scrap the Lords. It is a massive anachronism and overwhelmingly biased towards Londoners.
    They should now ban any member of the Lord's with an EU pension or funding from speaking or voting on any Brexit vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,189

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    On that basis Corbyn has the worst local elections record of any Labour opposition leader on an average voteshare basis so far
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,189
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040

    Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.

    Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
    Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?
    But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
    St Ives?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,482
    edited May 8
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040

    Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.

    Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
    Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?
    But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
    In this era of minority governments and small majorities, even 5-6 seats lost to the LDs could be very significant.

    Also, St Ives should be on your list.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,379
    I’ve seen both the good and the bad of the NHS. My other half’s critical care treatment, the in-patient care, speech therapy, physio and occupational therapy was all excellent. The district nurse system was a disgrace, the paramedics were incredible. The local authority’s occupational therapy and speech therapy was surprisingly good, though obviously stretched.

    My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    saddo said:

    Elliot said:

    Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....
    They should just scrap the Lords. It is a massive anachronism and overwhelmingly biased towards Londoners.
    They should now ban any member of the Lord's with an EU pension or funding from speaking or voting on any Brexit vote.
    I wouldn’t go that far, but it’s reasonable to expect that they declare their interest if they’re in the pay of the EU.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,753

    It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.

    It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.

    Shouldn't you have predicted the shambles before you placed your X?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    Scott_P said:
    They seen as bad at making up their minds as the cabinet, though in fairness the latter is a more immediate concern .
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,804
    DavidL said:

    I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.

    We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
    The "ra-ra-ra the pound is going up" cheering during the winter really was idiotic.

    There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:

    1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries
    2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is certainly going to hurt the border towns, at least until England does something similar. You don't have to be a fan of Nicola to wonder if alcohol at less than 50p a unit is a good idea.
    David, surprised you are taken in by the hype. There has been little to no change , cheap muck at bottom may have gone up but any premium / quality beer / wine / spirits have not changed one iota. Unionist right wing cretinous bollox.
    There are significant differences in price on most vodkas, some blended whiskies, cheap wine (Tesco was previously selling bottles down to £4 or even less) and cheap ciders. Some of these have almost doubled in price, especially the vodkas. As I say I personally am persuaded that this is a good thing and that really cheap alcohol was a bad thing causing serious damage to those who take it as well as adverse social consequences. But then, like you, the minimum price has not really affected me.
    Isnt this just more middle class overlording ?

    The middle classes and professions are currently the nation's heaviest drinkers

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/uk-most-frequent-drinkers-lawyers-doctors-city-professionals-alcohol-consumption-statistics-a8330741.html

    Yes it is which makes me uncomfortable. But having seen 2 daughters through their teens in recent years loading up with "pre's" (I am not sure how to spell it to be honest) at friend's houses before they went out there is no question that there remains an issue amongst the young, even if an increasing number of them don't drink at all reducing their average.

    We see the social consequences on our streets and in Scotland at least it is an issue. We drink significantly more than the English on average and it is one of the factors that reduces our life expectancies (its also a lot easier to do something about than the depressing weather and lack of sunlight for months on end). There are arguments both ways but on balance I came down in support of minimum pricing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040

    Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.

    Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
    Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?
    But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
    St Ives?
    Yes, good spot.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,482

    Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....

    Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....
    So goodbye to flying in Andrew Lloyd-Webber to vote through benefit cuts then...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    Scott_P said:
    It does seem that way. She is losing so many cabinet members, and he do blatantly would be positioned for a challenge. It's a mess of her making, but I still have some sympathy - sure you want someone inside the tent pissing out, but he's been spraying in all directions constantly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,906
    edited May 8



    My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.

    I know someone who might have liver/bile duct cancer and has been going round in circles being sent from doctor to doctor and hospital to hospital since before Christmas!

    Even now they are still waiting for an appointment to go in for a biopsy that will finally determined what is wrong with her.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,615
    Roger said:

    It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.

    It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.

    Shouldn't you have predicted the shambles before you placed your X?
    At that point no-one anticipated that TMay would be running the show.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,615
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another perspective on 'the best Labour performance since 1971':

    ttps://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/992744992715223040

    Yeahbut London was turned into an awesome sea of red so nothing else counts.

    Meanwhile, in Nuneaton, Morley, Newcastle -U-L, Dudley etc the trend is all blue. Guess where a general election is won and lost?
    Umm, LibDem/Con marginals?
    But how marginal are most of them now? Richmond Park, Cheadle, Devon N, Cheltenham, maybe St Albans, but where else are the LDs within 10% of the Con incumbent?

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
    St Ives?
    I believe there are problems with the electoral register in St Ives. Apparently one canvasser encountered a man who claimed to have 7 wives...


    (I've already got my coat)
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,482
    edited May 8
    It really is starting to feel like we are reaching the reductio ad absurdum phase of Brexit
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,525
    Mr. P, why would MPs, excepting the censorious and far left, be in favour of state regulation of the press? I hope the amendment fails utterly.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    This fairly disgusting company operates out of London.

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/05/black-cube-admits-it-targeted-obama-aides-wives/

    Are there any British laws to stop this sort if harassment?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    DavidL said:

    I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.

    We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
    The "ra-ra-ra the pound is going up" cheering during the winter really was idiotic.

    There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:

    1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries
    2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future
    What we really need is to improve our productivity markedly increasing competitiveness without depreciating the currency as the Germans have repeatedly done. But that is a much more complex, longer term solution.

    What I am finding mildly irritating at the moment is people "finding" these long term, chronic problems in our economy and trying to claim that they have something to do with Brexit. The detail of these problems evolving whilst we were in the SM seems to completely pass them by.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713

    Interesting straw in the wind - reports that government looking at stripping voting rights from peers who don’t make 20% of votes....
    I'm not a fan of making kneejerk constitutional changes in search of a solution to a temporary political problem, but that is one of the measures I've suggested for years. It's not supposed to be a place of comfy retirement, or a peerage no different than a knighthood, some fancy medal. If you don't put in the time to scrutinise legislation, you should be excluded, and it quickly reduces the size of the house.

    So the motivation is bad, but the proposal may be good, it depends on how it was proposed to be implemented. You'd need a lengthy warning period for a start.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255

    I’ve seen both the good and the bad of the NHS. My other half’s critical care treatment, the in-patient care, speech therapy, physio and occupational therapy was all excellent. The district nurse system was a disgrace, the paramedics were incredible. The local authority’s occupational therapy and speech therapy was surprisingly good, though obviously stretched.

    My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.

    The district nurse system has been wrecked by cuts and re-organisations.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,906
    If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    I’ve seen both the good and the bad of the NHS. My other half’s critical care treatment, the in-patient care, speech therapy, physio and occupational therapy was all excellent. The district nurse system was a disgrace, the paramedics were incredible. The local authority’s occupational therapy and speech therapy was surprisingly good, though obviously stretched.

    My parents are currently being let down by delays in getting cancer treatment for my dad. My mum is beside herself with worry.

    The main driver of inefficiency in the NHS is that elderly patients are kept in hospital beds, deprivng them from other people, because the underfunded social care system doesn't have capacity to take them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 17,881

    DavidL said:

    I think it is absolutely clear that the UK economy has lost a considerable amount of momentum. The interest rate increase pencilled in for this month is surely off.

    We are finally seeing the consequences of an extended period of falling real wages on demand. The M1 figures are a consequence of that. The important thing for the UK is get output back in line with supply. If we can increase exports to offset this fall in demand this will be good for UK plc in the medium term, even if it is unpleasant in the short term. Unfortunately, I do not think we will be the only country that suffers from this. Much of the EZ is showing less promise than it did in January.
    The "ra-ra-ra the pound is going up" cheering during the winter really was idiotic.

    There's only two ways in which the UK can get growth:

    1) Export led requiring low sterling and growth in other countries
    2) Borrow and spend ie stealing growth from the future
    3) reshoring and making stuff we used to make so we don't import it

    start with HP sauce
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,482
    edited May 8

    Mr. P, why would MPs, excepting the censorious and far left, be in favour of state regulation of the press? I hope the amendment fails utterly.

    Free speech is good. Presenting lies as if they were news is not good.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    edited May 8
    GIN1138 said:

    If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?

    Lose the next election. She can afford to lose Boris but not all three.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,753

    Roger said:

    It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.

    It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.

    Shouldn't you have predicted the shambles before you placed your X?
    At that point no-one anticipated that TMay would be running the show.
    You must have anticipated it would be a Tory. Were you thinking it would be a Tory of your imagination or is there a real one you can think of who could ever have made a decent job of it?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,482
    edited May 8
    GIN1138 said:

    If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?

    Make Ken Clarke Brexit Secretary?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713

    It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.

    It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.

    No it isn't, but the opposition don't have to wait for the government to make up its mind before making up their own. They can just have a policy and if the government ever picked the same one, well done

    The cabinet still not decided is more of a problem, but labour are either divided or incredibly cynical over it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750
    Ian Dunt - @IanDunt: You couldn't ask for a more perfect encapsulation of the pointlessness of Brexit than ham-faced cretin Gavin Williamson saying we should build our own Galileo system.

    Ian Dunt - @IanDunt: He wants to spend countless millions replicating a project we are already invested in. He calls it... you guessed it... "rediscovering our bulldog spirit".
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,615
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    It is very difficult to oppose he government's Brexit policy when the government does not have a Brexit policy.

    It isn't up to Labour to make the first move.

    Shouldn't you have predicted the shambles before you placed your X?
    At that point no-one anticipated that TMay would be running the show.
    You must have anticipated it would be a Tory. Were you thinking it would be a Tory of your imagination or is there a real one you can think of who could ever have made a decent job of it?
    Yes, the one who promised us he wouldn't resign as PM if Leave won!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,679
    GIN1138 said:

    If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?

    Replace them with Remainers
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750
    GIN1138 said:

    If The Three Brexiteers resign from the Cabinet today what does May do?

    Declare a National holiday?
This discussion has been closed.