Why exactly do ex-Londoners want to vote Labour, when that party's policies have lead to most of the factors that induced them to leave London in the first place? Are they thick?
Disclosure: ex-Londoner, Tory then, Tory now.
The factor being that you get more space once you leave London?
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
I guess longer life expectancy is helping the Tories in the short term. It will be interesting to see whether this cohort of voters stay Labour as they get older. If it does, this demographic bow-wave will finish the Tories.
The Tories have not won under 30s since 1987 and Labour have not won pensioners since 1997.
Short of a landslide the young always vote Labour and the old always vote Tory as ever it is the middle aged who decide elections
Doesn't sound like great news for the Tories, then?
Given rising life expectancy you could argue the reverse
Rising life expectancy keeps existing old people around for longer. But doesn't generate extra Tory votes, whilst the ageing middle aged are shut out of the housing market and hence passing up the opportunity to become more right wing because they can't get their own home.
The ageing middle aged will still eventually inherit their parents' houses even if they have to wait to 50 to 60 to do so
What we need in this country is a serious rebalance of house prices - deflation of probably at least 30%. But no Government will countenance that because of the damage it would do to so many people who see their house as their pension.
House prices holding a nominal flat value for the next 10 years (If we assume 2-3% inflation) would do the trick, avoiding the negative equity trap for new owners but also returning affordability to those who wish to buy, or move to a more expensive property. It would also hold nominal rents steady all else being equal making that aspect superior.
Of course if you're trying to move house some rental sector is needed else your chain will have a much greater probability of failure.
That all sounds very sensible. Trouble is it will be met with horror by those using their house as a replacement for a pension.
North Essex is a beautiful part of the country - particularly Saffron Walden. So I am sure he will do just fine.
A hotbed of pro Brexit Tory MPs as well - Bernard Jenkin, James Cleverly, John Whittingdale, Kemi Badenoch, Will Quince and last but not least Priti Patel! How could you go wrong which ever area you move to.
Cleverly and Badenoch have gone very quiet on Brexit. It's too toxic for anyone with career ambitions.
Tbh, I don't think that is something that will hold over time. At the moment the reason income earners are trending towards Labour is because of anger over housing (something we discussed on the previous thread). Home ownership among 25-40 year olds in the south is at a post-Thatcher low, until that changes the Tories will be out of favour with working age people.
As I said on the last thread it is imperative that we increase home ownership and reduce private renting, not only is it bad for us as a party, it is economically questionable as it concentrates wealth among fewer people and reduces the spending power of working age people.
Some of the most successful countries in Europe seem to disagree with you. In Germany renting accounts for just about 50% of homes. In Switzerland it is nearer 60%. Denmark and Austria also both have higher percentages renting than the UK.
Spain and France though now have more home owners than the UK
They do but that is no support for Max's claim that home ownership is better for the economy than a large rental sector. Indeed it is property booms like those in Spain and Ireland which cause significant damage to the economy.
Personally I am unsure which is the better balance but the idea that large scale home ownership is necessarily automatically better for the country seems a case unproven. And certainly at the moment the widely held belief that homes should be an investment rather than just somewhere to live - with the associated need for ever increasing house prices - is seriously damaging our economy and our social wellbeing.
What we need in this country is a serious rebalance of house prices - deflation of probably at least 30%. But no Government will countenance that because of the damage it would do to so many people who see their house as their pension.
Certainly I think the maximum you can get as Home owners is about 70% of the population, trying to get more means lending beyond what people can afford and leads to economic crashes like 2008.
30% will always rent and you need to ensure secure tendencies and affordable rents for them.
He (Cohen) was clearly peddling influence. And big corporates were happy to pay to see if he delivered it. Trump is lucky that Cohen appears to have been a major league bullshitter.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
I guess longer life expectancy is helping the Tories in the short term. It will be interesting to see whether this cohort of voters stay Labour as they get older. If it does, this demographic bow-wave will finish the Tories.
The Tories have not won under 30s since 1987 and Labour have not won pensioners since 1997.
Short of a landslide the young always vote Labour and the old always vote Tory as ever it is the middle aged who decide elections
Doesn't sound like great news for the Tories, then?
Given rising life expectancy you could argue the reverse
due to Tory/LibDem austerity,life expectancy is not rising any more,largely dependant upon social class so more poor people are dying for sure but the Tory party could still collapse given a flu epidemic.
Given the Coalition halved unemployment from where Labpur left it you can't really blame the Tories for slashing life expectancy
Aren't you aware of the DWP death squads hunting down disabled people in the hostile environment created for us by IDS courtesy of Dr Mengele?
Labour outperformed in Hertfordshire last June. Broxbourne albeit with a 15k majority not as safe as it used to be relatively speaking compared to 15 yeasts ago.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
I guess longer life expectancy is helping the Tories in the short term. It will be interesting to see whether this cohort of voters stay Labour as they get older. If it does, this demographic bow-wave will finish the Tories.
The Tories have not won under 30s since 1987 and Labour have not won pensioners since 1997.
Short of a landslide the young always vote Labour and the old always vote Tory as ever it is the middle aged who decide elections
Doesn't sound like great news for the Tories, then?
Given rising life expectancy you could argue the reverse
due to Tory/LibDem austerity,life expectancy is not rising any more,largely dependant upon social class so more poor people are dying for sure but the Tory party could still collapse given a flu epidemic.
Given the Coalition halved unemployment from where Labpur left it you can't really blame the Tories for slashing life expectancy
Aren't you aware of the DWP death squads hunting down disabled people in the hostile environment created for us by IDS courtesy of Dr Mengele?
Well yeah, of course, everyone knows about those. Approve of them or not, they are damn fine at their jobs.
Does anyone know how I can get a private prescription in the UK from a doctor, for something that is not currently part of the NICE guidelines?
Talk to your NHS GP. I had exactly the same issue some years ago and he was ready to do it on a private basis. As it turned out what I wanted soon became possible on the NHS and didn't have to do it.
Yes, any Doctor can prescribe off NICE drugs (if clinically appropriate) if they choose, just not on NHS scripts.
Off to the match. V poor team for Leicester, nailed on for Arsenal even if they are on the beach.
Not sure if been discussed but reports suggesting Con is going to let the Lab backbench boundary review bill go through as part of deal that Lab won't push votes at 16.
The Bill will scrap current boundary review and replace it with new one with:
- 650 seats (not 600) - tolerance 92.5 to 107.5 (not 95 to 105)
Boundary Reports to be issued before 1 October 2020 so would still mean new boundaries on above basis before next GE as long as Govt survives post October 2020.
Keeping the seats at 650 sounds sensible. And having a slightly larger variation is probably a price worth paying to ensure they aren't 15 years out of date....
Hardly seems worth the delay for what look like pretty minor changes, but it needs doing, so whatever gets it done.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
Forever. I am baffled how the continuing existence of Tories, and Tory governments, leads people to believe that this time it will be the end for them. Granted, no party has a right to exist forevermore, and some who use it are joking, and no not everyone turns Tory when they age, but plenty seem to genuinely think it will be so.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
I guess longer life expectancy is helping the Tories in the short term. It will be interesting to see whether this cohort of voters stay Labour as they get older. If it does, this demographic bow-wave will finish the Tories.
The Tories have not won under 30s since 1987 and Labour have not won pensioners since 1997.
Short of a landslide the young always vote Labour and the old always vote Tory as ever it is the middle aged who decide elections
Doesn't sound like great news for the Tories, then?
Given rising life expectancy you could argue the reverse
due to Tory/LibDem austerity,life expectancy is not rising any more,largely dependant upon social class so more poor people are dying for sure but the Tory party could still collapse given a flu epidemic.
Given the Coalition halved unemployment from where Labpur left it you can't really blame the Tories for slashing life expectancy
Aren't you aware of the DWP death squads hunting down disabled people in the hostile environment created for us by IDS courtesy of Dr Mengele?
Sorry forgot I was apparently a member of the new Nazi Party!
Tbh, I don't think that is something that will hold over time. At the moment the reason income earners are trending towards Labour is because of anger over housing (something we discussed on the previous thread). Home ownership among 25-40 year olds in the south is at a post-Thatcher low, until that changes the Tories will be out of favour with working age people.
As I said on the last thread it is imperative that we increase home ownership and reduce private renting, not only is it bad for us as a party, it is economically questionable as it concentrates wealth among fewer people and reduces the spending power of working age people.
Some of the most successful countries in Europe seem to disagree with you. In Germany renting accounts for just about 50% of homes. In Switzerland it is nearer 40%. Denmark and Austria also both have higher percentages renting than the UK.
Germany has a vast professional rental sector with large companies renting hundreds of flats. We have a very amateurish marketplace ruled by the whims of how much money unscrupulous landlords think they can extract from their tenants.
Mr. S, given how turbulent politics has been recently, I think making forecasts about voting patterns decades into the future might be unwise.
Anyway, I must be off. For those into The One Hundred*, it resumes tonight, 9pm, E4. What mischief will our improbably attractive nuclear holocaust survivors get up to now?
*I know, it's meant to be The Hundred (The 100). But The One Hundred reminds me of Xenophon's Anabasis. It also resumes for those not into the series.
Wait, it's supposed to be The Hundred? I've been calling it the wrong thing this whole time.
And I'll say this for only handsome people surviving the apocalypse - it at least lets their hair and clothes get a bit mucky sometimes. Falling Skies sometimes let its characters get a bit realistically grimy too.
Two friends, both ladies. Both in their mid 30s. Both moved to university, same as me, about 18 years ago. Both also moved to London post graduation (zone 1 in Islington, as it happens and as a flat share) and have lived there for over ten years. One originally hailed from Maidstone in Kent, and was a Tory at university. The other is from Southend in Essex, and also used to be a Tory. Both from working class backgrounds. What influenced them were lots of SMEs in their hometowns, the white van man, together with Thatcherite families. And they used to be solid.
However, over the last few years they got softer and softer until they became outright critical or even hostile. Both now post (not regularly, but frequently enough to annoy me) on Facebook about austerity and how the Tories are directing racist polices. They seem to get many “likes” for this.
One just moved out to Essex with her new husband only two months ago, so it will be interesting to see how her political journey continues. But she is exactly the sort of person this survey would cover.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
Forever. I am baffled how the continuing existence of Tories, and Tory governments, leads people to believe that this time it will be the end for them. Granted, no party has a right to exist forevermore, and some who use it are joking, and no not everyone turns Tory when they age, but plenty seem to genuinely think it will be so.
That Jeremy Corbyn chap is proving particularly recalcitrant, I feel.
Not sure if been discussed but reports suggesting Con is going to let the Lab backbench boundary review bill go through as part of deal that Lab won't push votes at 16.
The Bill will scrap current boundary review and replace it with new one with:
- 650 seats (not 600) - tolerance 92.5 to 107.5 (not 95 to 105)
Boundary Reports to be issued before 1 October 2020 so would still mean new boundaries on above basis before next GE as long as Govt survives post October 2020.
Keeping the seats at 650 sounds sensible. And having a slightly larger variation is probably a price worth paying to ensure they aren't 15 years out of date....
Essentially what I predicted at the turn of the year. With a compromise on the criteria. The poor BC has to start from scratch, yet again.
Not sure if been discussed but reports suggesting Con is going to let the Lab backbench boundary review bill go through as part of deal that Lab won't push votes at 16.
The Bill will scrap current boundary review and replace it with new one with:
- 650 seats (not 600) - tolerance 92.5 to 107.5 (not 95 to 105)
Boundary Reports to be issued before 1 October 2020 so would still mean new boundaries on above basis before next GE as long as Govt survives post October 2020.
Keeping the seats at 650 sounds sensible. And having a slightly larger variation is probably a price worth paying to ensure they aren't 15 years out of date....
Essentially what I predicted at the turn of the year. With a compromise on the criteria. The poor BC has to start from scratch, yet again.
Keeps them in work I guess? Sadly they probably have plenty of work they have to keep doing, even though it will be pointless, just in case things don't change.
North Essex is a beautiful part of the country - particularly Saffron Walden. So I am sure he will do just fine.
A hotbed of pro Brexit Tory MPs as well - Bernard Jenkin, James Cleverly, John Whittingdale, Kemi Badenoch, Will Quince and last but not least Priti Patel! How could you go wrong which ever area you move to.
Cleverly and Badenoch have gone very quiet on Brexit. It's too toxic for anyone with career ambitions.
Both are working at Tory central office as party Deputy and vice chair respectively. As they are part of the party machine you wouldn't expect them to be going public on Brexit controversies. They are of course both Londoners - and former London Assembly members - who have moved to north Essex.
I think Badenoch's impressive maiden speech made it very clear where she stands.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
Forever. I am baffled how the continuing existence of Tories, and Tory governments, leads people to believe that this time it will be the end for them. Granted, no party has a right to exist forevermore, and some who use it are joking, and no not everyone turns Tory when they age, but plenty seem to genuinely think it will be so.
It’s just as silly as saying Labour or the LDs will die out.
When the electorate craves radical reform or investment, which the Tories can’t or won’t deliver, they will opt for parties of the Left in Government. When they crave security, stability, and fiscal sanity - and a bit less “change”, thank you very much - they will opt for the Tories.
In a democracy, they exist in a symbiotic and dynamic relationship with one another.
Christ, I don't think I've ever seen him so animated, he's about to burst a blood vessel.
See how natural Corbyn looks being passionate compared to Ed.
Corbyn is, to an extent, naturally authoritative in his manner. I do think when he gets angry he often looks petulant, and his mild manner approach is much more effective, but he has more presence than Ed M. Which since I'm much less a fan of his, is not ideal.
Yep. One works in the same firm as me, and we last had a drink together only 2 weeks ago. The other works for the NHS as a junior doctor. I last saw her in January at her birthday drinks.
You think I’m making it up, or think I can’t be friends with anyone I politically disagree with?
Yep. One works in the same firm as me, and we last had a drink together only 2 weeks ago. The other works for the NHS as a junior doctor. I last saw her in January at her birthday drinks.
You think I’m making it up, or think I can’t be friends with anyone I politically disagree with?
I think that the terms that you use to describe them are not those one might use about friends.
Yep. One works in the same firm as me, and we last had a drink together only 2 weeks ago. The other works for the NHS as a junior doctor. I last saw her in January at her birthday drinks.
You think I’m making it up, or think I can’t be friends with anyone I politically disagree with?
I think that the terms that you use to describe them are not those one might use about friends.
Ok. You think what you like. Others can do the same.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
I guess longer life expectancy is helping the Tories in the short term. It will be interesting to see whether this cohort of voters stay Labour as they get older. If it does, this demographic bow-wave will finish the Tories.
The Tories have not won under 30s since 1987 and Labour have not won pensioners since 1997.
Short of a landslide the young always vote Labour and the old always vote Tory as ever it is the middle aged who decide elections
Doesn't sound like great news for the Tories, then?
Given rising life expectancy you could argue the reverse
Rising life expectancy keeps existing old people around for longer. But doesn't generate extra Tory votes, whilst the ageing middle aged are shut out of the housing market and hence passing up the opportunity to become more right wing because they can't get their own home.
The ageing middle aged will still eventually inherit their parents' houses even if they have to wait to 50 to 60 to do so
That assumes you are an only child. You may only inherit half or even one third of a house. Waiting until you are 60 do have a stable home - long after your kids if you have them have grown up - is not really much comfort in your 30s.
And that assumes neither parent needs social care.
Yep. One works in the same firm as me, and we last had a drink together only 2 weeks ago. The other works for the NHS as a junior doctor. I last saw her in January at her birthday drinks.
You think I’m making it up, or think I can’t be friends with anyone I politically disagree with?
I think that the terms that you use to describe them are not those one might use about friends.
Ok. You think what you like. Others can do the same.
I've always rather thought that city-dwellers would be most likely to be best-served by the Tories in government. It never ceases to amaze me that the voting seems to suggest the other way around. Dwellers in the world's great city certainly are better off under Tory rule.. so all several million of them are wrong, and I'm right. I suspect this isn't my most convincing of posts!
(My theory as why I seem to be (or just am) so wrong is that non-city dwellers move to cities because of apparent opportunity, find none, and then blame someone else.)
Anyway politics is basically all over because the LDs are going to win Lewisham East, and go on to romp home everywhere. (I rather fancy a Labour independent candidate may stand in LE)
What we need in this country is a serious rebalance of house prices - deflation of probably at least 30%. But no Government will countenance that because of the damage it would do to so many people who see their house as their pension.
House prices holding a nominal flat value for the next 10 years (If we assume 2-3% inflation) would do the trick, avoiding the negative equity trap for new owners but also returning affordability to those who wish to buy, or move to a more expensive property. It would also hold nominal rents steady all else being equal making that aspect superior.
Of course if you're trying to move house some rental sector is needed else your chain will have a much greater probability of failure.
That all sounds very sensible. Trouble is it will be met with horror by those using their house as a replacement for a pension.
Christ, I don't think I've ever seen him so animated, he's about to burst a blood vessel.
Poor Ed has an image problem. Still the same as it was in the 2010 parliament. “If I don’t get my way I will scream and scream and scream.” He can’t do indignation without looking petulant and weird.
Yep. One works in the same firm as me, and we last had a drink together only 2 weeks ago. The other works for the NHS as a junior doctor. I last saw her in January at her birthday drinks.
You think I’m making it up, or think I can’t be friends with anyone I politically disagree with?
I think that the terms that you use to describe them are not those one might use about friends.
Ok. You think what you like. Others can do the same.
I believe you CR. They’re not far behind me. I grew up upper working class and was a dry as dust Tory in my youth.
The older I get the more left wing I become. Although I still claim to be right wing to piss off my largely left wing circle of friends.
Christ, I don't think I've ever seen him so animated, he's about to burst a blood vessel.
Poor Ed has an image problem. Still the same as it was in the 2010 parliament. “If I don’t get my way I will scream and scream and scream.” He can’t do indignation without looking petulant and weird.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
I guess longer life expectancy is helping the Tories in the short term. It will be interesting to see whether this cohort of voters stay Labour as they get older. If it does, this demographic bow-wave will finish the Tories.
The Tories have not won under 30s since 1987 and Labour have not won pensioners since 1997.
Short of a landslide the young always vote Labour and the old always vote Tory as ever it is the middle aged who decide elections
Doesn't sound like great news for the Tories, then?
Given rising life expectancy you could argue the reverse
Rising life expectancy keeps existing old people around for longer. But doesn't generate extra Tory votes, whilst the ageing middle aged are shut out of the housing market and hence passing up the opportunity to become more right wing because they can't get their own home.
The ageing middle aged will still eventually inherit their parents' houses even if they have to wait to 50 to 60 to do so
That assumes you are an only child. You may only inherit half or even one third of a house. Waiting until you are 60 do have a stable home - long after your kids if you have them have grown up - is not really much comfort in your 30s.
And that assumes neither parent needs social care.
Having a huge chunk of the population following in Charles's footsteps probably isn't a recipe for enhancing the Tory vote.
Christ, I don't think I've ever seen him so animated, he's about to burst a blood vessel.
Poor Ed has an image problem. Still the same as it was in the 2010 parliament. “If I don’t get my way I will scream and scream and scream.” He can’t do indignation without looking petulant and weird.
No, he had a policy problem. His policies were nuts. Anyone of reasonable mind would have concluded so, and it seems they did. Corbyn on the other hand seems to have dispensed with all this. Stupid sells it seems, and Mr Corbyn is wonderfully well-placed to exploit that.
Presumably you get a point for turning up even if you are totally shite
Well, yes, and that's been just as well for Corbyn for the last two and a half years
Even Guido called it 6 nil for Jezza. Just how bad was Treason May then today?!
That is a pretty damning indictment of performance - if he'd merely had a very good day, 5-1 or 4-2 would likely be the call, but nil for May suggests the absolute mess she is in, possibly the writing on the wall, is getting to her.
Presumably you get a point for turning up even if you are totally shite
Well, yes, and that's been just as well for Corbyn for the last two and a half years
Even Guido called it 6 nil for Jezza. Just how bad was Treason May then today?!
That is a pretty damning indictment of performance - if he'd merely had a very good day, 5-1 or 4-2 would likely be the call, but nil for May suggests the absolute mess she is in, possibly the writing on the wall, is getting to her.
She was very distracted and just robotic. Worst for a long time
Presumably you get a point for turning up even if you are totally shite
Well, yes, and that's been just as well for Corbyn for the last two and a half years
Even Guido called it 6 nil for Jezza. Just how bad was Treason May then today?!
That is a pretty damning indictment of performance - if he'd merely had a very good day, 5-1 or 4-2 would likely be the call, but nil for May suggests the absolute mess she is in, possibly the writing on the wall, is getting to her.
Are you really suggesting Corbyn as PM? If you are I will mark you as a fool for all time. I will worry too about your descendants' wisdom. I will never (despite my normal instincts) obstruct the men in white coats when they march in your direction, and I will never try to smuggle you a key when you're convicted of being as daft as a brush.
What we need in this country is a serious rebalance of house prices - deflation of probably at least 30%. But no Government will countenance that because of the damage it would do to so many people who see their house as their pension.
House prices holding a nominal flat value for the next 10 years (If we assume 2-3% inflation) would do the trick, avoiding the negative equity trap for new owners but also returning affordability to those who wish to buy, or move to a more expensive property. It would also hold nominal rents steady all else being equal making that aspect superior.
Of course if you're trying to move house some rental sector is needed else your chain will have a much greater probability of failure.
Germany also had a long period of falling real house prices. A great counter-example to the idea that house price rises for the next few decades are inevitable as tomorrow's sunrise and therefore a nice little banker for long-term financial planning.
Incidentally this may be one of those things where a higher rate of the inflation target could have some virtue - the current target keeps prices pretty stable, a bit more lubrication would (one hopes, and if the marketplace wasn't too distorted*) help relative values readjust more quickly. As an aside, I wonder how different government and BoE policies would have been over the past few decades if housing price rises had been incorporated properly in the inflation target...
* though the housing market looks likely to remain distorted for some time to come!
Presumably you get a point for turning up even if you are totally shite
Well, yes, and that's been just as well for Corbyn for the last two and a half years
Even Guido called it 6 nil for Jezza. Just how bad was Treason May then today?!
That is a pretty damning indictment of performance - if he'd merely had a very good day, 5-1 or 4-2 would likely be the call, but nil for May suggests the absolute mess she is in, possibly the writing on the wall, is getting to her.
Are you really suggesting Corbyn as PM? .
Er, no. What about what I said suggested that? I was merely commenting that apparently he'd had a great PMQs and May a terrible one, presuming that May's Brexit Cabinet troubles, which might bring her down, played a part in her (apparently) terrible performance.
Can’t the government just go for Max Fac from 2025 with a Customs Union to cover the period 2020-25?
Pro-European Tories get a Customs Union, Brexiteers can still look at the sunrise to come, and the British people can have their say at the next general election.
Can’t the government just go for Max Fac from 2025 with a Customs Union to cover the period 2020-25?
Pro-European Tories get a Customs Union, Brexiteers can still look at the sunrise to come, and the British people can have their say at the next general election.
Given the comments they've made, I don't see how Boris and co accept that.
Can’t the government just go for Max Fac from 2025 with a Customs Union to cover the period 2020-25?
Pro-European Tories get a Customs Union, Brexiteers can still look at the sunrise to come, and the British people can have their say at the next general election.
Given the comments they've made, I don't see how Boris and co accept that.
Can’t the government just go for Max Fac from 2025 with a Customs Union to cover the period 2020-25?
Pro-European Tories get a Customs Union, Brexiteers can still look at the sunrise to come, and the British people can have their say at the next general election.
Given the comments they've made, I don't see how Boris and co accept that.
Well, if they wanted something different perhaps 1) one of the Brexiteers could have won the party leadership and 2) they could have won the argument in Cabinet for proper hard Brexit preparations. They haven’t done either, so they should be prepared to suck it up.
Perhaps at some point Theresa May will force Boris to read out a hostage statement where he renounces his support for Brexit and then she'll announce the second referendum.
Can’t the government just go for Max Fac from 2025 with a Customs Union to cover the period 2020-25?
Pro-European Tories get a Customs Union, Brexiteers can still look at the sunrise to come, and the British people can have their say at the next general election.
Given the comments they've made, I don't see how Boris and co accept that.
Well, if they wanted something different perhaps 1) one of the Brexiteers could have won the party leadership and 2) they could have won the argument in Cabinet for proper hard Brexit preparations. They haven’t done either, so they should be prepared to suck it up.
That's the problem with the current standoff - May probably cannot get what Boris and co want through the Commons, and she cannot seem to get what the Commons will accept through her own Cabinet, and I don't see how that is resolved without an ousting attempt.
Yep. One works in the same firm as me, and we last had a drink together only 2 weeks ago. The other works for the NHS as a junior doctor. I last saw her in January at her birthday drinks.
You think I’m making it up, or think I can’t be friends with anyone I politically disagree with?
I think that the terms that you use to describe them are not those one might use about friends.
Ok. You think what you like. Others can do the same.
I believe you CR. They’re not far behind me. I grew up upper working class and was a dry as dust Tory in my youth.
The older I get the more left wing I become. Although I still claim to be right wing to piss off my largely left wing circle of friends.
We are all free to make of the world as we will, as our experiences change and we become older and, hopefully, wiser.
I've found my principles don't change, but I find everything is increasingly more grey and complex as I get older, and I have to take in account (and listen) to more and more different points of view.
Hmm. As soon as I see an article like that my eyebrow raises itself quizzically.
Firstly, 1.8% isn't really very much at all. Secondly, most of the public have now switched off to forecasts like this, which they think are by-and-large horseshit. And, thirdly, "in the long-run" our trade with the EU will be an ever smaller minority, and the structure of our economy will be very different.
One could make a powerful case the UK would be better off with an ability to structure its own future trade deals, with lower tariffs, together with a more flexible regulatory regime. The problem is we can't baseline something prospective to year one, so these analyses will always carry disproportionate weight, even thought they are chock full of somewhat tendentious assumptions.
Hmm. As soon as I see an article like that my eyebrow raises itself quizzically.
Firstly, 1.8% isn't really very much at all. Secondly, most of the public have now switched off to forecasts like this, which they think are by-and-large horseshit. And, thirdly, "in the long-run" our trade with the EU will be an ever smaller minority, and the structure of our economy will be very different.
One could make a powerful case the UK would be better off with an ability to structure its own future trade deals, with lower tariffs, together with a more flexible regulatory regime. The problem is we can't baseline something prospective to year one, so these analyses will always carry disproportionate weight, even thought they are chock full of somewhat tendentious assumptions.
If they fudge Brexit, what's the betting that Nigel rides back over the hill saying "Told you so. They've ignored 17.4m of you. Vote for me" - and we end up with a populist party vote. Then where do we end up?
North Essex is a beautiful part of the country - particularly Saffron Walden. So I am sure he will do just fine.
A hotbed of pro Brexit Tory MPs as well - Bernard Jenkin, James Cleverly, John Whittingdale, Kemi Badenoch, Will Quince and last but not least Priti Patel! How could you go wrong which ever area you move to.
Cleverly and Badenoch have gone very quiet on Brexit. It's too toxic for anyone with career ambitions.
Both are working at Tory central office as party Deputy and vice chair respectively. As they are part of the party machine you wouldn't expect them to be going public on Brexit controversies. They are of course both Londoners - and former London Assembly members - who have moved to north Essex.
I think Badenoch's impressive maiden speech made it very clear where she stands.
Perhaps at some point Theresa May will force Boris to read out a hostage statement where he renounces his support for Brexit and then she'll announce the second referendum.
Couldn't we chop an ear or a finger off to send to his loved ones first?
This is getting silly now. One way or another the government has to jump. The indecision is costing May now. It has to happen soon anyway. She is not going to be able to please all of the people. There may be ructions. We could be looking at an end to her premiership, but whatever way you cut it whether she makes this decision tomorrow, next week or in the next month, the decision has to come and come soon.
Just get on with it Mrs May. You're a steely character and for all your detractors I think you're somewhat unfairly maligned given the hand you've been dealt. You've done a good-ish job keeping the show on the road so far, post electiongeddon. But it's time now to be bold and face the consequences.
I find myself getting increasingly annoyed by television this evening.
Firstly, even though he makes a few fair points, Hugh Fearnley -Whittingstall is an irritating little gobshite who almost had me cheering on the Coca-Cola corporation.
Secondly, there is no pretence of balance on either the BBC or ITN news about Trump pulling out of the Iraq nuclear deal tonight. Yes, it's probably a stupid and counterproductive move, but I'd at least like to hear *why* he felt that way, dispassionately, with some sober analysis, rather than jumping straight to he's an idiot, and the middle east is going to blow up.
Lots of noise in the Golan and Southern Syria. It looks like the Israelis & someone on the Assad regime side are exchanging shells. Syrian air defences have just started up.
Some of those MPs are quite brave. Williams has a majority of 888 in Stockton S in a borough that voted 62% leave. Turley's Redcar seat is in a borough that voted 66% leave and saw a swing to the Tories (and is not as safe as it looks bearing in mind what happened to Vera Baird)
Lots of noise in the Golan and Southern Syria. It looks like the Israelis & someone on the Assad regime side are exchanging shells. Syrian air defences have just started up.
And Netanyahu in Moscow talking to Putin today
Trump has really thrown one big spanner into the Middle East with so many factions but also he is now at the table and goodness knows how this works out. Macron has been left red faced as has Merkel and Boris
I find myself getting increasingly annoyed by television this evening.
Firstly, even though he makes a few fair points, Hugh Fearnley -Whittingstall is an irritating little gobshite who almost had me cheering on the Coca-Cola corporation.
Secondly, there is no pretence of balance on either the BBC or ITN news about Trump pulling out of the Iraq nuclear deal tonight. Yes, it's probably a stupid and counterproductive move, but I'd at least like to hear *why* he felt that way, dispassionately, with some sober analysis, rather than jumping straight to he's an idiot, and the middle east is going to blow up.
On topic - This is very ominous for the Tories. Young, educated, sophisticated and liberal voters who have nothing in common with an old and staid Tory party.
The writing is on the wall folks!
How often are we going to hear the Tories are dying out meme?
I guess longer life expectancy is helping the Tories in the short term. It will be interesting to see whether this cohort of voters stay Labour as they get older. If it does, this demographic bow-wave will finish the Tories.
The Tories have not won under 30s since 1987 and Labour have not won pensioners since 1997.
Short of a landslide the young always vote Labour and the old always vote Tory as ever it is the middle aged who decide elections
Doesn't sound like great news for the Tories, then?
Given rising life expectancy you could argue the reverse
Rising life expectancy keeps existing old people around for longer. But doesn't generate extra Tory votes, whilst the ageing middle aged are shut out of the housing market and hence passing up the opportunity to become more right wing because they can't get their own home.
The ageing middle aged will still eventually inherit their parents' houses even if they have to wait to 50 to 60 to do so
That assumes you are an only child. You may only inherit half or even one third of a house. Waiting until you are 60 do have a stable home - long after your kids if you have them have grown up - is not really much comfort in your 30s.
And that assumes neither parent needs social care.
Yes but of course many parents will help their children get on the housing ladder in their 30s with gifts for deposits etc and you only have to have your home assessed for residential care costs, it is still exempt for personal care costs. Plus of course if you are married or have a partner they will inherit part of their parents' house too.
Of course the Tories are also building more affordable homes to get people on the housing ladder, despite LD NIMBYISM and also by ending free movement reducing the pressure for housing too.
Lots of noise in the Golan and Southern Syria. It looks like the Israelis & someone on the Assad regime side are exchanging shells. Syrian air defences have just started up.
And Netanyahu in Moscow talking to Putin today
Trump has really thrown one big spanner into the Middle East with so many factions but also he is now at the table and goodness knows how this works out. Macron has been left red faced as has Merkel and Boris
What it actually shows is that the European signatories to the agreement were a waste of space. The big dog is the US and the Europeans can't do a lot.
Part of it will be worked through on the battlefield. As much as most of the senior members of the Israeli intelligence community and many of the IDF do not like Netanyahu, they will go along with maintaining a buffer against Iranian backed elements sitting on their borders. Every time they launch, they know that the Iranians, who effectively run the biggest segment the forces nominally under the Assad banner, or the Syrians themselves will try to respond. Once they respond, Israel will just go at it with greater might and ultimately they have the firepower and capability on their side.
As it, yet again Syrian air defences in Damascus are shooting at something but what is anyones guess. A couple of weeks back they engaged targets claiming to shot down incoming Israeli missiles only hours later to say it was a false alert (system error...) and they were in fact shooting at thin air.
Tonight looks like a proper dust up with the likelihood of casualties on both sides.
Comments
If the product is EMA approved then it is legal to prescribe but you will need to go to a private doctor and pay out of pocket
30% will always rent and you need to ensure secure tendencies and affordable rents for them.
Off to the match. V poor team for Leicester, nailed on for Arsenal even if they are on the beach.
I had a strange mental image of somebody swimming along with a glass of white wine in their hand...
And I'll say this for only handsome people surviving the apocalypse - it at least lets their hair and clothes get a bit mucky sometimes. Falling Skies sometimes let its characters get a bit realistically grimy too.
Two friends, both ladies. Both in their mid 30s. Both moved to university, same as me, about 18 years ago. Both also moved to London post graduation (zone 1 in Islington, as it happens and as a flat share) and have lived there for over ten years. One originally hailed from Maidstone in Kent, and was a Tory at university. The other is from Southend in Essex, and also used to be a Tory. Both from working class backgrounds. What influenced them were lots of SMEs in their hometowns, the white van man, together with Thatcherite families. And they used to be solid.
However, over the last few years they got softer and softer until they became outright critical or even hostile. Both now post (not regularly, but frequently enough to annoy me) on Facebook about austerity and how the Tories are directing racist polices. They seem to get many “likes” for this.
One just moved out to Essex with her new husband only two months ago, so it will be interesting to see how her political journey continues. But she is exactly the sort of person this survey would cover.
Both voted Remain.
I think Badenoch's impressive maiden speech made it very clear where she stands.
https://youtu.be/q3o0Cx-kqww
When the electorate craves radical reform or investment, which the Tories can’t or won’t deliver, they will opt for parties of the Left in Government. When they crave security, stability, and fiscal sanity - and a bit less “change”, thank you very much - they will opt for the Tories.
In a democracy, they exist in a symbiotic and dynamic relationship with one another.
You think I’m making it up, or think I can’t be friends with anyone I politically disagree with?
And that assumes neither parent needs social care.
(My theory as why I seem to be (or just am) so wrong is that non-city dwellers move to cities because of apparent opportunity, find none, and then blame someone else.)
Anyway politics is basically all over because the LDs are going to win Lewisham East, and go on to romp home everywhere. (I rather fancy a Labour independent candidate may stand in LE)
Even Sun Politics called it 5-1 Jezza
Presumably you get a point for turning up even if you are totally shite
They’re not far behind me. I grew up upper working class and was a dry as dust Tory in my youth.
The older I get the more left wing I become.
Although I still claim to be right wing to piss off my largely left wing circle of friends.
(Worth watching to the end if only for Chris Addison's rant about opinion polling.)
Each to his own though.
Incidentally this may be one of those things where a higher rate of the inflation target could have some virtue - the current target keeps prices pretty stable, a bit more lubrication would (one hopes, and if the marketplace wasn't too distorted*) help relative values readjust more quickly. As an aside, I wonder how different government and BoE policies would have been over the past few decades if housing price rises had been incorporated properly in the inflation target...
* though the housing market looks likely to remain distorted for some time to come!
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUKPol/status/994305606763864066
Pro-European Tories get a Customs Union, Brexiteers can still look at the sunrise to come, and the British people can have their say at the next general election.
'You are right sir. I humble myself before God, and there the list ends.'
I've found my principles don't change, but I find everything is increasingly more grey and complex as I get older, and I have to take in account (and listen) to more and more different points of view.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-trade-brexit-north-east-customs-union-single-market-a8343591.html
https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/994309164401922049?s=21
Hmm. As soon as I see an article like that my eyebrow raises itself quizzically.
Firstly, 1.8% isn't really very much at all. Secondly, most of the public have now switched off to forecasts like this, which they think are by-and-large horseshit. And, thirdly, "in the long-run" our trade with the EU will be an ever smaller minority, and the structure of our economy will be very different.
One could make a powerful case the UK would be better off with an ability to structure its own future trade deals, with lower tariffs, together with a more flexible regulatory regime. The problem is we can't baseline something prospective to year one, so these analyses will always carry disproportionate weight, even thought they are chock full of somewhat tendentious assumptions.
We genuinely have no idea what will happen next year let alone "in the long term".
Good evening, everybody.
Black voter lack of enthusiasm in Milwaukee for Clinton.
Just get on with it Mrs May. You're a steely character and for all your detractors I think you're somewhat unfairly maligned given the hand you've been dealt. You've done a good-ish job keeping the show on the road so far, post electiongeddon. But it's time now to be bold and face the consequences.
Firstly, even though he makes a few fair points, Hugh Fearnley -Whittingstall is an irritating little gobshite who almost had me cheering on the Coca-Cola corporation.
Secondly, there is no pretence of balance on either the BBC or ITN news about Trump pulling out of the Iraq nuclear deal tonight. Yes, it's probably a stupid and counterproductive move, but I'd at least like to hear *why* he felt that way, dispassionately, with some sober analysis, rather than jumping straight to he's an idiot, and the middle east is going to blow up.
They lied too much. Let's not forget Hannan, Farage wanted the Norway solution.
And Netanyahu in Moscow talking to Putin today
Trump has really thrown one big spanner into the Middle East with so many factions but also he is now at the table and goodness knows how this works out. Macron has been left red faced as has Merkel and Boris
Come on May,pull the trigger.
A long transistion period - 10-15 years or so - will be best.
Brexit - a farce, not a policy.
Of course the Tories are also building more affordable homes to get people on the housing ladder, despite LD NIMBYISM and also by ending free movement reducing the pressure for housing too.
Part of it will be worked through on the battlefield. As much as most of the senior members of the Israeli intelligence community and many of the IDF do not like Netanyahu, they will go along with maintaining a buffer against Iranian backed elements sitting on their borders. Every time they launch, they know that the Iranians, who effectively run the biggest segment the forces nominally under the Assad banner, or the Syrians themselves will try to respond. Once they respond, Israel will just go at it with greater might and ultimately they have the firepower and capability on their side.
As it, yet again Syrian air defences in Damascus are shooting at something but what is anyones guess. A couple of weeks back they engaged targets claiming to shot down incoming Israeli missiles only hours later to say it was a false alert (system error...) and they were in fact shooting at thin air.
Tonight looks like a proper dust up with the likelihood of casualties on both sides.
Hard brexit it is.