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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Heidi Allen: Could she be the LAB mayoral nominee in 2020 so S

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  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    In case anyone else missed this earlier:

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/994490885923622912
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    It's not but we have an impotent Remainer as PM who threw away Cameron's majority.
    The biggest factor in why things have played out the way they have is that the EU has remained solid. A different PM or a majority government wouldn’t have changed that.
    When Theresa May carries all the authority of a wet sponge of course they have.

    When Theresa May has shown zero initiative in setting out her own position of course they have.

    The EU spent ages saying to Britain "what do you want" while May spent ages saying "what will you offer" until eventually the EU set out its position. A confident PM let alone one with a healthy majority should have put out from the start a positive vision of what we were seeking and the EU could and would have worked with that. The EU's own actions show that.
    I actually think that’s fair.

    Not because she is/was a Remainer, though, but because she doesn’t do initiative or vision. Her personality and training in the Home Office is about security and control.

    On the other hand, who could do a better job?
    Please don’t say Boris, JRM, Davis, or Fox.
    Gove.

    Or more likely Boris only as the front-man to more serious people behind him (like Gove in the referendum).
    Gove played the key role in turning support for leaving the EU into a mainstream position. This is his mess.
    And he would be the best one to own it instead of being relegated behind people like May.

    He had the vision for Brexit. May did not. He should be leading our negotiations.
    + million
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907
    Off topic - really nice inspirational story of asylum seekers being welcomed by the baptist church in Manchester.

    https://www.baptist.org.uk/Articles/515781/Welcoming_Iranian_asylum.aspx
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    HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617

    HHemmelig said:

    It's not but we have an impotent Remainer as PM who threw away Cameron's majority.
    For which the country, and the Tory party, should be eternally grateful. An impotent remainer can do far less damage to both than an idealogical leaver. Imperfect as she may be, May is all that stands in the way of the twin disasters of PM Corbyn or PM Mogg. Shudder.
    PM Gove or even (shudder) PM Boris would have been better.

    They had a positive and open vision of a liberal Britain.

    Instead May with the fake zeal of the covert portrayed a vicious, nasty and insular anti-migration red line Britain and gave no positivity whatsoever. That's been a disaster.
    Most people who voted Brexit are not positive, open or liberal.

    And most positive open liberals despise Brexit.

    Boris and Gove's so called vision for Brexit would therefore please pretty much no-one aside from a tiny number of right wing libertarians (massively over represented on here).
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    Lights blue touch paper and then runs away:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/994514865359327232
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    edited May 2018

    The boundary changes in Newcastle-under-Lyme seem to have rendered all "insiders" unable to do their sums!
    The Tories are more popular in Newcastle-Under-Lyme than Labour, essentially it did a reverse Wandsworth (Where Labour are more popular than the Tories)

    Con 12,449 votes;
    Lab 11,561 votes by my count. (Highest vote)
    Bodes well for the GE
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    philiph said:

    It's not but we have an impotent Remainer as PM who threw away Cameron's majority.
    The biggest factor in why things have played out the way they have is that the EU has remained solid. A different PM or a majority government wouldn’t have changed that.
    When Theresa May carries all the authority of a wet sponge of course they have.

    When Theresa May has shown zero initiative in setting out her own position of course they have.

    The EU spent ages saying to Britain "what do you want" while May spent ages saying "what will you offer" until eventually the EU set out its position. A confident PM let alone one with a healthy majority should have put out from the start a positive vision of what we were seeking and the EU could and would have worked with that. The EU's own actions show that.
    I actually think that’s fair.

    Not because she is/was a Remainer, though, but because she doesn’t do initiative or vision. Her personality and training in the Home Office is about security and control.

    On the other hand, who could do a better job?
    Please don’t say Boris, JRM, Davis, or Fox.
    Gove.

    Or more likely Boris only as the front-man to more serious people behind him (like Gove in the referendum).
    Gove really isn't in possession of the qualities required for a public facing number 1. He is much more suited to a position of number two or three in a more sheltered position from public gaze.

    It is what Cameron did so well, the public facing bit, and leaving the detail, plans and thoughts to others (Ozzy, Gove etc) who lacked charisma and easy charm.
    I think Johnson is a figure of ridicule and contempt.

    Javid could do it, with Gove behind him.
    To you and me maybe However Boris Johnson is a proven winner.His decision to fight for Brexit was a real blow to Cameron and the remain team.

    Boris v Corbyn , I believe Boris would get the majority that May threw away.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    In case anyone else missed this earlier:

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/994490885923622912

    Wait till we've got our money on a June election before you show the Prime Minister.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Yorkcity said:

    However Boris Johnson is a proven winner.

    He didn't win the leadership last time.

    No obvious signs he could win next time
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390
    Scott_P said:
    "Will gov really confront hard choices they can’t make now in run up to next election?..."

    Almost certainly not if May is still PM....
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited May 2018
    Scott_P said:

    Yorkcity said:

    However Boris Johnson is a proven winner.

    He didn't win the leadership last time.

    No obvious signs he could win next time
    True but Gove was an utter shite , to promise to back him , then pull the plug right at the last minute.

    Says all you need to know about Gove a politician I respected.Not now never trust a man like that.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because its a proxy for Leave/Remain and the Remainers haven't accepted they lost the referendum and moved on. Show anyone at all who backed Leave who thinks remaining in the customs union is a great idea - many thought EEA-style that in the Single Market but out of the Customs Union made sense, but out of the Single Market and out of the Customs Union is insane which is why not a single developed European nation has done that.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because its a proxy for Leave/Remain and the Remainers haven't accepted they lost the referendum and moved on. Show anyone at all who backed Leave who thinks remaining in the customs union is a great idea - many thought EEA-style that in the Single Market but out of the Customs Union made sense, but out of the Single Market and out of the Customs Union is insane which is why not a single developed European nation has done that.
    Leaving the EU is insane, which is why not a single developed European nation has done it.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Yorkcity said:

    philiph said:

    It's not but we have an impotent Remainer as PM who threw away Cameron's majority.
    The biggest factor in why things have played out the way they have is that the EU has remained solid. A different PM or a majority government wouldn’t have changed that.
    When Theresa May carries all the authority of a wet sponge of course they have.

    When Theresa May has shown zero initiative in setting out her own position of course they have.

    The EU spent ages saying to Britain "what do you want" while May spent ages saying "what will you offer" until eventually the EU set out its position. A confident PM let alone one with a healthy majority should have put out from the start a positive vision of what we were seeking and the EU could and would have worked with that. The EU's own actions show that.
    I actually think that’s fair.

    Not because she is/was a Remainer, though, but because she doesn’t do initiative or vision. Her personality and training in the Home Office is about security and control.

    On the other hand, who could do a better job?
    Please don’t say Boris, JRM, Davis, or Fox.
    Gove.

    Or more likely Boris only as the front-man to more serious people behind him (like Gove in the referendum).
    Gove really isn't in possession of the qualities required for a public facing number 1. He is much more suited to a position of number two or three in a more sheltered position from public gaze.

    It is what Cameron did so well, the public facing bit, and leaving the detail, plans and thoughts to others (Ozzy, Gove etc) who lacked charisma and easy charm.
    I think Johnson is a figure of ridicule and contempt.

    Javid could do it, with Gove behind him.
    To you and me maybe However Boris Johnson is a proven winner.His decision to fight for Brexit was a real blow to Cameron and the remain team.

    Boris v Corbyn , I believe Boris would get the majority that May threw away.
    Boris as PM (the frontman for the band) Gove as CotE (the brians behind the operation) and George Osborne as DPM (to keep Tory Remainers happy) would probably have brought us to a happier place than we currently find ourselves in.

    All too late now.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because its a proxy for Leave/Remain and the Remainers haven't accepted they lost the referendum and moved on. Show anyone at all who backed Leave who thinks remaining in the customs union is a great idea - many thought EEA-style that in the Single Market but out of the Customs Union made sense, but out of the Single Market and out of the Customs Union is insane which is why not a single developed European nation has done that.
    Leaving the EU is insane, which is why not a single developed European nation has done it.
    Not being in the EU is sane which is why plenty of developed European nations aren't in it.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because its a proxy for Leave/Remain and the Remainers haven't accepted they lost the referendum and moved on. Show anyone at all who backed Leave who thinks remaining in the customs union is a great idea - many thought EEA-style that in the Single Market but out of the Customs Union made sense, but out of the Single Market and out of the Customs Union is insane which is why not a single developed European nation has done that.
    Leaving the EU is insane, which is why not a single developed European nation has done it.
    Yet
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    "Norway" would mean out of the customs union but in the single market.

    I would personally be happy with that (as I don't care about immigration and free movement) - But what Parliament seems to be trying to achieve is out the single market but in the customs unions which is just madness!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    A soft Brexit remaining in the Customs Union (like no other developed European nation) and a soft Brexit leaving the Customs Union (like Norway, Switzerland etc) are quite different things.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I was thinking that too.

    I reckon Sadiq Khan as leader might just appeal to all Labour supporters.

    He put Corbyn on the ballot - that could help him with the left.
    London is ready to vote for a Muslim leader, but is the country?
    We’ve had a Muslim as England’s cricket captain, they’ll accept it.

    I still think the Tories might beat Labour to the first Muslim Leader/PM.

    Honestly you wait ages for the son of a Muslim immigrant bus driver to become party leader then two come along at once.
    Accept it is one thing, vote for it is another.
    Nah. The country would certainly vote for a someone from a Muslim background. Javid vs Khan would be a fascinating contest. Both represent young aspirational Muslims who put country and service before religion.

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Scott_P said:
    This isn't going to end well for Bercow...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I was thinking that too.

    I reckon Sadiq Khan as leader might just appeal to all Labour supporters.

    He put Corbyn on the ballot - that could help him with the left.
    London is ready to vote for a Muslim leader, but is the country?
    We’ve had a Muslim as England’s cricket captain, they’ll accept it.

    I still think the Tories might beat Labour to the first Muslim Leader/PM.

    Honestly you wait ages for the son of a Muslim immigrant bus driver to become party leader then two come along at once.
    Accept it is one thing, vote for it is another.
    Nah. The country would certainly vote for a someone from a Muslim background. Javid vs Khan would be a fascinating contest. Both represent young aspirational Muslims who put country and service before religion.

    Absolutely. The vast, vast majority of our nation is perfectly willing to accept anyone of any colour or creed especially if they're on "our side".

    A Tory would absolutely vote for a Muslim Tory over a Christian or atheist Labour leader.
    A Labour voter would absolutely vote for a Muslim Labour leader over a Christian or atheist Tory leader.

    Look at the way Liverpool fans have embraced Mo Salah. People care more for their own team whether it be sport or politics than they do bigotry.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
    My dream would be Ruth + Gove.
    Since Ruth is out, I’m tentatively putting forward Javid + Gove.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
    My dream would be Ruth + Gove.
    Since Ruth is out, I’m tentatively putting forward Javid + Gove.
    I'd vote for that.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
    My dream would be Ruth + Gove.
    Since Ruth is out, I’m tentatively putting forward Javid + Gove.
    I would both support that and vote for it and who knows where this goes from here. TM looked overwhelmed yesterday
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    Dura_Ace said:

    If ConHome aka Gammon HQ is losing faith then the leave jihad really is in trouble.
    Nicky Morgan does not represent ConHome any more than ConHome represents all ot Tory opinion. You really shouldn't conflate them.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.
    Braverman for PM?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    HHemmelig said:

    HHemmelig said:

    It's not but we have an impotent Remainer as PM who threw away Cameron's majority.
    For which the country, and the Tory party, should be eternally grateful. An impotent remainer can do far less damage to both than an idealogical leaver. Imperfect as she may be, May is all that stands in the way of the twin disasters of PM Corbyn or PM Mogg. Shudder.
    PM Gove or even (shudder) PM Boris would have been better.

    They had a positive and open vision of a liberal Britain.

    Instead May with the fake zeal of the covert portrayed a vicious, nasty and insular anti-migration red line Britain and gave no positivity whatsoever. That's been a disaster.
    Most people who voted Brexit are not positive, open or liberal.

    And most positive open liberals despise Brexit.

    Boris and Gove's so called vision for Brexit would therefore please pretty much no-one aside from a tiny number of right wing libertarians (massively over represented on here).
    Baseless assumptions being made by you there.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:
    What a neat illustration of our decline as a nation.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I was thinking that too.

    I reckon Sadiq Khan as leader might just appeal to all Labour supporters.

    He put Corbyn on the ballot - that could help him with the left.
    London is ready to vote for a Muslim leader, but is the country?
    We’ve had a Muslim as England’s cricket captain, they’ll accept it.

    I still think the Tories might beat Labour to the first Muslim Leader/PM.

    Honestly you wait ages for the son of a Muslim immigrant bus driver to become party leader then two come along at once.
    Accept it is one thing, vote for it is another.
    Nah. The country would certainly vote for a someone from a Muslim background. Javid vs Khan would be a fascinating contest. Both represent young aspirational Muslims who put country and service before religion.

    Absolutely. The vast, vast majority of our nation is perfectly willing to accept anyone of any colour or creed especially if they're on "our side".

    A Tory would absolutely vote for a Muslim Tory over a Christian or atheist Labour leader.
    A Labour voter would absolutely vote for a Muslim Labour leader over a Christian or atheist Tory leader.

    Look at the way Liverpool fans have embraced Mo Salah. People care more for their own team whether it be sport or politics than they do bigotry.
    It is thankfully a non issue, and there is plenty of evidence to back up the point that voters really do not base their vote on colour of skin or religion in recent elections:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_minority_politicians_in_the_United_Kingdom

    OTOH Running a campaign that could be perceived to be racist *cougoldh Smith* is a vote loser.

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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a neat illustration of our decline as a nation.
    The tie alone should disqualify him.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    Legally we could not leave except via Article 50. To say we should have done otherwise is to say we should have breached our treaty obligations. Not something that should be encouraged.

    The rest of it I pretty much agree with.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Baseless assumptions being made by you there.

    How many "positive open liberals" voted for this?

    image
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited May 2018

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
    Uniting the country isn't going to happen

    There's 3 choices (which are actually more than 3).

    1. Stay in the CU/SM
    2. Leave completely
    3. Some ad-hoc compromise somewhere in the middle.

    3 seems the only option which will work for all, but it might well not be possible (ie Cake and eat it). Both 1 and 2 are going to leave a large proportion of both parliment and the country in a very angry spot.

    Maybe the only solution now IS another referendum on this. ie CU/SM directly put to the people.



  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
    It wouldn't prevent us taking part in EU trade deals with third party countries, it just wouldn't be guaranteed.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Scott_P said:
    Remainers will soon be getting as fed up with this as Leavers - Maybe getting rid of Theresa will be the one thing that finally unites the Tories in the end?
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited May 2018

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
    My dream would be Ruth + Gove.
    Since Ruth is out, I’m tentatively putting forward Javid + Gove.
    I would both support that and vote for it and who knows where this goes from here. TM looked overwhelmed yesterday
    True May looked desolate unable to give leadership over this issue.

    Surely her own sense of duty would tell her to make a stand for what she thinks is best for the country, if she is defeated by her own party , so be it.

    Go out with some respect, rather than drifting along , to ridicule been told your policy is crazy.

    Then offering no response to that assertion.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    Khan is likely to stand for re election as Mayor and even if he did stand down in 2020 the Labour membership is still likely to vote for Corbyn over him before the next general election.

    Alexander may be a future Mayoral candidate though
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
    Uniting the country isn't going to happen

    There's 3 choices (which are actually more than 3).

    1. Stay in the CU/SM
    2. Leave completely
    3. Some ad-hoc compromise somewhere in the middle.

    3 seems the only option which will work for all, but it might well not be possible (ie Cake and eat it). Both 1 and 2 are going to leave a large proportion of both parliment and the country in a very angry spot.

    Maybe the only solution now IS another referendum on this. ie CU/SM directly put to the people.



    The only main party which had a manifesto commitment to stay in the single market and customs union at the last general election and to have a referendum on the final deal was the LDs.

    So that requires either the LDs to win the next general election or to hold the balance of power
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:
    Johnson reply was sharp and dismissive: "I do not recall him making those points when he was serving so well as Secretary of State for Defence when the deal was done, and I disagree with him".

    Fallon's friends were shocked by Johnson's statement. They say

    1) that Fallon has been critical of the limitations of the JCPOA for a considerable time;

    2) that Johnson seems to have broken the convention that cabinet conversations are not aired in public;

    3) that Johnson was not in the Cabinet when the JCPOA was agreed, so he could not know what Fallon said at the time;


    I don't see what in Boris's quote specifies that he's referring to "in Cabinet" especially given #3. More that in public Fallon never said that.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
    It wouldn't prevent us taking part in EU trade deals with third party countries, it just wouldn't be guaranteed.
    If we are required to honour our obligations to third party deals without having the benefits of third party deals reciprocated then what leverage do we have to make them be reciprocated?

    Its an absurd proposition. Nobody honestly believes out of the EU but in the Customs Union is the right thing, you want that solely because you want to be in the EU. Be honest.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    HYUFD said:


    So that requires either the LDs to win the next general election or to hold the balance of power

    Currently the central forecast at Electoral Calculus:

    Con + DUP 318
    Lab + Plaid + SNP + Green 309
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
    You've lost me a bit.
    You seem to be saying businesses are arguing against their own interest on the customs union, and that if they get their way it will prove damaging for them.
    Why are they being so stupid then?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
    It wouldn't prevent us taking part in EU trade deals with third party countries, it just wouldn't be guaranteed.
    Just look at Turkey. Not a good position to be in.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
    You've lost me a bit.
    You seem to be saying businesses are arguing against their own interest on the customs union, and that if they get their way it will prove damaging for them.
    Why are they being so stupid then?
    Not all businesses are. Most businesses stay out of politics altogether.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:
    We should have put Nigel Farage in charge of Brexit.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    I know it is very unlikely. But it would still be my preferred compromise solution.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    Small earthquake in Chile. Boris won't be elected leader but this is neither here nor there.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    Which is the Gordian Knot. We want control over free movement, and access to markets. Something has to give.

    We had a referendum, and that seemed to go for the former, but is it enough?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
    You've lost me a bit.
    You seem to be saying businesses are arguing against their own interest on the customs union, and that if they get their way it will prove damaging for them.
    Why are they being so stupid then?
    Sorry. I was not meaning to be obtuse. Businesses (Some) are arguing for us to stay in 'The' Customs Union. That cannot happen with us outside the EU. The alternative as they see it is being inside 'a' customs union. But that is a very different beast and I am not sure how many businesses actually realise that.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    I don't like fixed terms. But making them the MP for the Palace of Westminster would be a good idea (the electorate being sitting MPs). Then their actual constituency can have a by-election along normal party-political lines.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957

    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    I know it is very unlikely. But it would still be my preferred compromise solution.
    It is very unlikely precisely because working class Leave voters would be furious, agreed
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Yorkcity said:

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
    My dream would be Ruth + Gove.
    Since Ruth is out, I’m tentatively putting forward Javid + Gove.
    I would both support that and vote for it and who knows where this goes from here. TM looked overwhelmed yesterday
    True May looked desolate unable to give leadership over this issue.

    Surely her own sense of duty would tell her to make a stand for what she thinks is best for the country, if she is defeated by her own party , so be it.

    Go out with some respect, rather than drifting along , to ridicule been told your policy is crazy.

    Then offering no response to that assertion.

    May likes to have all the facts before making a decision. The judgement is whether she can afford to wait given the EU seems unlikely to agree anything othe than the Uk staying in the EU. We need to press on with the WTO option.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    Which is the Gordian Knot. We want control over free movement, and access to markets. Something has to give.

    We had a referendum, and that seemed to go for the former, but is it enough?
    Unless the LDs win the next general election, yes.

    Though again much of the blame lies with Blair for failing to implement transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 as the EU allowed him to
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    We need to press on with the WTO option.

    The Worst of All Worlds...

    Can't think why May is not pushing that?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    I know it is very unlikely. But it would still be my preferred compromise solution.
    It is very unlikely precisely because working class Leave voters would be furious, agreed
    Surely all you need to do is say "Brexit means Brexit" for a while to ensure UKIP dies out, then let the negotiations get bogged down in tedious details that nobody understands, and by then everyone's forgotten what they thought in 2016 anyway.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
    It wouldn't prevent us taking part in EU trade deals with third party countries, it just wouldn't be guaranteed.
    Just look at Turkey. Not a good position to be in.
    Next door to Syria ?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited May 2018

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    I think this goes far beyond that.

    The abuse allegations Newsnight has turned up are pretty serious and if proven would leave any Speaker, leader or ministers job on the line.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    Baseless assumptions being made by you there.

    How many "positive open liberals" voted for this?

    image

    Lib Dems believe in localism and subsidiarity so would like the UK to take back control.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    May seems far more popular with the British public right now than she does on this website.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited May 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    May seems far more popular with the British public right now than she does on this website.

    It is quite difficult to understand why May is extending her poll lead when her government appears to be on the point of collapse...

    Maybe it's sympathy?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    Yougov

    Tories up 1% to 43% extending their lead over Labour to 5%.

    LDs seem to have got the biggest local elections boost, up 2% to 9%

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/theresa-may-extends-her-poll-lead-over-jeremy-corbyn-jmxld8lvn
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    edited May 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    May seems far more popular with the British public right now than she does on this website.

    It is quite difficult to understand why May is extending her poll lead when her government appears to be on the point of collapse...

    Maybe it's sympathy?
    I don't think it is on the point of collapse personally. Anyway the whole dementia and fox hunting stuff has been ditched, and they've even stopped the rot in London whilst looking on course in the likes of Newcastle Under Lyme.
    Boris can be hung out to dry on the EU stuff.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    Will read that with my cheese sandwich shortly. :)
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Norway isn't in the Customs Union
    Switzerland isn't in the Customs Union

    There's no need to be in one.

    Why has this issue paralysed the govt then?
    Why are businesses banging on and on about it?
    Because as part of the Irish border issue it was allowed to become a stumbling block. And once that had happened businesses have latched on to it as a way of slowing down Brexit. Of course if businesses win the fight over a customs union then it will prove very damaging for them. We cannot stay in 'the' Customs Union without being members of the EU (not going to happen) but being in 'a' customs union would be bad for them as it would be a one way street for tariff free imports via the EU but no tariff free exports back to third party countries.
    It wouldn't prevent us taking part in EU trade deals with third party countries, it just wouldn't be guaranteed.
    Just look at Turkey. Not a good position to be in.
    Next door to Syria ?
    Trade wise, not geographically.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    I know it is very unlikely. But it would still be my preferred compromise solution.
    It is very unlikely precisely because working class Leave voters would be furious, agreed
    Surely all you need to do is say "Brexit means Brexit" for a while to ensure UKIP dies out, then let the negotiations get bogged down in tedious details that nobody understands, and by then everyone's forgotten what they thought in 2016 anyway.
    By the next general election in 2022 if free movement is not ended UKIP may revive
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,703

    Scott_P said:
    We should have put Nigel Farage in charge of Brexit.
    Yeah look what he did to UKIP.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    I know it is very unlikely. But it would still be my preferred compromise solution.
    It is very unlikely precisely because working class Leave voters would be furious, agreed
    Surely all you need to do is say "Brexit means Brexit" for a while to ensure UKIP dies out, then let the negotiations get bogged down in tedious details that nobody understands, and by then everyone's forgotten what they thought in 2016 anyway.
    By the next general election in 2022 if free movement is not ended UKIP may revive
    This is just project fear.

    UKIP are a busted flush and anyone in the mainstream parties should have the confidence to take them on. The time to treat them as an acceptable adjunct to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tories is over.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,579
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov

    Tories up 1% to 43% extending their lead over Labour to 5%.

    LDs seem to have got the biggest local elections boost, up 2% to 9%

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/theresa-may-extends-her-poll-lead-over-jeremy-corbyn-jmxld8lvn

    And...

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/994535509245550592
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    edited May 2018
    Lol, Beast from the east saves homeowners bacon:

    Interest rates held.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44065472
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I was thinking that too.

    I reckon Sadiq Khan as leader might just appeal to all Labour supporters.

    He put Corbyn on the ballot - that could help him with the left.
    London is ready to vote for a Muslim leader, but is the country?
    We’ve had a Muslim as England’s cricket captain, they’ll accept it.

    I still think the Tories might beat Labour to the first Muslim Leader/PM.

    Honestly you wait ages for the son of a Muslim immigrant bus driver to become party leader then two come along at once.
    Accept it is one thing, vote for it is another.
    Who was the Muslim who captained England?

    Was it Nasser? Or Moeen in a one-dayer?

    Genuinely interested.
    Nasser Hussain. Test and ODI Captain between 1999 and 2003.
    Ah cheers - I'd never realised he was Muslim.
    Is the right answer.

    His religion is irrelevant... his cricketing skills, however...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    He pissed off more than Dave.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    Scott_P said:
    We should have put Nigel Farage in charge of Brexit.
    Yeah look what he did to UKIP.
    He was very succesful as UKIP leader to be fair.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov

    Tories up 1% to 43% extending their lead over Labour to 5%.

    LDs seem to have got the biggest local elections boost, up 2% to 9%

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/theresa-may-extends-her-poll-lead-over-jeremy-corbyn-jmxld8lvn

    And...

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/994535509245550592
    May has got the boost she needed it seems
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    He pissed off more than Dave.
    David Leakey's interview utterly damns Bercow.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    I know it is very unlikely. But it would still be my preferred compromise solution.
    It is very unlikely precisely because working class Leave voters would be furious, agreed
    Surely all you need to do is say "Brexit means Brexit" for a while to ensure UKIP dies out, then let the negotiations get bogged down in tedious details that nobody understands, and by then everyone's forgotten what they thought in 2016 anyway.
    By the next general election in 2022 if free movement is not ended UKIP may revive
    This is just project fear.

    UKIP are a busted flush and anyone in the mainstream parties should have the confidence to take them on. The time to treat them as an acceptable adjunct to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tories is over.
    UKIP are only a busted flush as the Tories and Labour have promised to implement Brexit and end free movement. If they both reversed that course UKIP would instantly fill the gap in the market for Leave voters who feel betrayed
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280

    May has made several mistakes - any one of which ought to be fatal.

    1. She exercised A50. We ought to be leaving via a bespoke treaty. A50 privileged the EU.

    2. She exercised A50 without a plan.

    3. She appointed Fox to Trade, even though it ought to be one of the most important ministries in shaping a viable post-Brexit future.

    4. She appointed Johnson to Foreign Secretary, making the country look feeble at a time when our international reputation was/is in question.

    5. She failed to reassure EU migrants to this country and U.K. migrants to the EU.

    6. She failed to reach out to Remainers, in fact seemed to do the opposite for several months. She’s refused to slap down the worst excesses of Brexit rhetoric.

    7. She painted no vision for the future, nor allowed one to be developed.

    8. She failed to recognise the political centrality of Northern Ireland.

    9. She lost an “unloseable” election.

    10. She remains committed to an unworkable and unrealistic migration policy.

    11. She’s let the EU do all the running in the negotiations so far.

    12. She’s failed to prepare for a worst case scenario.

    I still think the Tories will stick to nurse for fear of something worse. However, if just a few Remainers join forces with Leavers, in the belief a better way must be found - she’d be gone by lunchtime.

    And your last sentence is the problem. Who do you think could resolve this and unite the Country or do you accept no one
    My dream would be Ruth + Gove.
    Since Ruth is out, I’m tentatively putting forward Javid + Gove.
    I'd vote for that.
    Me too.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    He pissed off more than Dave.
    David Leakey's interview utterly damns Bercow.
    Indeed. These are very serious allegations for Speaker Bercow that go far beyond the "usual suspects" moaning about him.

    If the Parliamentary authorities decide the allegations against him are truthful his position will be untennable IMO.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    The Tories need May in place to blow her remaining (largely gone) political capital on getting Brexit over the line.
    Then a new leader in 2019 conference I think - but no GE.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    He pissed off more than Dave.
    David Leakey's interview utterly damns Bercow.
    Bercow is personally rude, politically inconsistent but has always been consistently pompous.

    That’s why no-one likes him.
This discussion has been closed.