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SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited May 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollster that got GE2017 most right now has CON in the lead

Trend chart of Survation voting intention polls since GE17 pic.twitter.com/Eted64NFaQ

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Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,629
    First, but the old decent last should be the new first.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,506
    FPT:
    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well, as well as something of an obsession with WWC. Also agree with GardenWalker’s observations, especially number 3.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,750
    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,219
    40% is still a pretty good score for Labour after they did less than impressively at the local elections.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,629
    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Brexit was never going to be 'tick a box'

    It'll be fine, but both the EU and UK governing forces need actually to do some stuff. That is a rather nasty shock.

    Government mostly does fuck all. Euro-Government perhaps less. Just about now they might for the first time earn their pay. Panic!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,591
    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188
    This month following reasonable local elections has undoubtedly been May's best month since the general election and that is confirmed in the polls
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,747
    AndyJS said:

    40% is still a pretty good score for Labour after they did less than impressively at the local elections.

    Only if it materialises, I have my doubts... about polls... AND Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,629
    AndyJS said:

    40% is still a pretty good score for Labour after they did less than impressively at the local elections.

    Miracle score given their offering.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,984
    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    Pineapple pizzas are literally unspoofable. No other pizza comes close.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,275

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
    To be fairer to Hannan than he deserves, he has always been in favour of a form of Brexit that keeps quite close links to Europe. His problem is that nobody else does.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
    What exactly do you expect him to do? He holds no office in Government and is not even an MP. He has been banging on about his vision for Brexit to anyone who will listen since long before the referendum but of course May and Corbyn have decided that anything that includes EEA membership is absolutely out.

    Gove and Davis are both MPs and in the cabinet. Hannan is not. Your criticism is irrational.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Yep, Labour have collapsed back to 40% after being under attack for weeks, time to break out the bunting and celebrate the downfall of the big bad Corbyn.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212
    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,463
    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    40% is still a pretty good score for Labour after they did less than impressively at the local elections.

    Miracle score given their offering.
    I imagine they could go higher , in a General Election campaign .
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    edited May 11
    AndyJS said:

    40% is still a pretty good score for Labour after they did less than impressively at the local elections.

    Well, it shows them effectively in a tie, just like local elections showed. Only difference is that the Lib Dems do better in the locals.
  • RogueywonRogueywon Posts: 23
    I doubt Lewisham East will be interesting at all. I lived there for 7 years and it will vote overwhelmingly for Labour whoever the candidate and whatever the campaign. I doubt the national effects of the antisemitism row will be mirrored in Lewisham - it's telling that two of the front-runners for the candidacy have already been identified as having made troubling social media posts.

    There are a few corners of the constituency around Blackheath and Grove Park which are a bit bluer, but they're very much in the minority. The LDs were a distant third in GE2017 and while the bookies are getting excited about their chances in 2018, I just don't see the constituency having the right demographics for them to make a credible challenge to Labour.

    I can't see any sense in betting on anything other than a very strong Labour hold. Turnout levels may be more interesting and telling than the actual vote share.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,914
    HYUFD said:

    This month following reasonable local elections has undoubtedly been May's best month since the general election and that is confirmed in the polls

    Three days is a month?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,866
    Leave/Remain are also tied, according to Survation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,866
    Yorkcity said:

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    40% is still a pretty good score for Labour after they did less than impressively at the local elections.

    Miracle score given their offering.
    I imagine they could go higher , in a General Election campaign .
    they might, but so might the Conservatives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,188
    Yorkcity said:

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    40% is still a pretty good score for Labour after they did less than impressively at the local elections.

    Miracle score given their offering.
    I imagine they could go higher , in a General Election campaign .
    Labour only went that high last time by squeezing left-wing LD, Green, UKIP and SNP voters and have little more to squeeze.

    They need to convert 2017 Tory voters next time and there is little evidence of that so far
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,591

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
    What exactly do you expect him to do? He holds no office in Government and is not even an MP. He has been banging on about his vision for Brexit to anyone who will listen since long before the referendum but of course May and Corbyn have decided that anything that includes EEA membership is absolutely out.

    Gove and Davis are both MPs and in the cabinet. Hannan is not. Your criticism is irrational.
    Volunteer. Offer to be a consultant inside the tent. Offer to give advice on how the EU works. Offer to build bridges in the EU for the new relationship.

    Anything.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,591

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
    To be fairer to Hannan than he deserves, he has always been in favour of a form of Brexit that keeps quite close links to Europe. His problem is that nobody else does.
    He favours EFTA, which is fair enough. Lots of Leavers on here did too.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,314
    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,158
    Sean_F said:

    Leave/Remain are also tied, according to Survation.

    Their poll has odd weightings. The unweighted sample is biased towards Leave but the weighted sample gives a 2016 result of 51%/49% so I can't work out how they arrive at their figures.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 686
    Rogueywon said:

    I doubt Lewisham East will be interesting at all. I lived there for 7 years and it will vote overwhelmingly for Labour whoever the candidate and whatever the campaign. I doubt the national effects of the antisemitism row will be mirrored in Lewisham - it's telling that two of the front-runners for the candidacy have already been identified as having made troubling social media posts.

    There are a few corners of the constituency around Blackheath and Grove Park which are a bit bluer, but they're very much in the minority. The LDs were a distant third in GE2017 and while the bookies are getting excited about their chances in 2018, I just don't see the constituency having the right demographics for them to make a credible challenge to Labour.

    I can't see any sense in betting on anything other than a very strong Labour hold. Turnout levels may be more interesting and telling than the actual vote share.

    I cannot see the LD doing very well, they only got 2,000 votes in 2017 and that is 30,000 votes behind Labour. This will be an overwhelming Labour hold unfortunately and will strengthen Corbyn's grip on the PLP. Some of the ramping about LD prospects are laughable.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,331

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
    You can't realistically expect the "truest" of true believers to sign up for a programme of damage limitation on their life project.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,914
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
    It doesn't mean that at all: it means so extreme that it cannot be parodied, because you cannot exaggerate what is already at a maximum. An example from that bastion of pb torydom, the Guardian: "Honk honk! All aboard the Brexit bus: the TV show that spoofs the unspoofable" https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/jun/07/power-monkeys-eu-referendum-satire-spoof-danger-nearly-live-tv-archie-panjabi
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,158
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
    You can't realistically expect the "truest" of true believers to sign up for a programme of damage limitation on their life project.
    A reminder of what Daniel Hannan expected to happen - https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

    During the first 12 months after the vote, Britain confirmed with the various countries that have trade deals with the EU that the same deals would continue. It also used that time to agree much more liberal terms with those states which had run up against EU protectionism, including India, China and Australia. These new treaties came into effect shortly after independence. Britain, like the EFTA countries, now combines global free trade with full participation in EU markets.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,591
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
    You can't realistically expect the "truest" of true believers to sign up for a programme of damage limitation on their life project.
    That’s how you see. I don’t believe it is like that.

    I just expect Leavers who campaigned for it to put their shoulders to the wheel and get stuck in, not snipe from the sidelines.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,158

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Not that I want to give succour to Remainers but what has Dan Hannan actually done about it?

    I used to be a big fan of Dan’s and, particularly since he’s been the leading advocate of it for so long, I expected him to take some ownership, responsibility and bloody well get stuck in - just like Gove has. And so has Davis, to be fair. And as I offered to do for DexEU.

    Instead he’s been academically pontificating on the sidelines. Not impressed.
    You can't realistically expect the "truest" of true believers to sign up for a programme of damage limitation on their life project.
    That’s how you see. I don’t believe it is like that.

    I just expect Leavers who campaigned for it to put their shoulders to the wheel and get stuck in, not snipe from the sidelines.
    Initially Davis seemed to be the one who was working the hardest to try to make it work, but I'm not sure how committed he's been recently.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255

    Rogueywon said:

    I doubt Lewisham East will be interesting at all. I lived there for 7 years and it will vote overwhelmingly for Labour whoever the candidate and whatever the campaign. I doubt the national effects of the antisemitism row will be mirrored in Lewisham - it's telling that two of the front-runners for the candidacy have already been identified as having made troubling social media posts.

    There are a few corners of the constituency around Blackheath and Grove Park which are a bit bluer, but they're very much in the minority. The LDs were a distant third in GE2017 and while the bookies are getting excited about their chances in 2018, I just don't see the constituency having the right demographics for them to make a credible challenge to Labour.

    I can't see any sense in betting on anything other than a very strong Labour hold. Turnout levels may be more interesting and telling than the actual vote share.

    I cannot see the LD doing very well, they only got 2,000 votes in 2017 and that is 30,000 votes behind Labour. This will be an overwhelming Labour hold unfortunately and will strengthen Corbyn's grip on the PLP. Some of the ramping about LD prospects are laughable.
    While I cannot see LD’s winning the seat I suspect it’s misleading to look just at the last election. What the last few elections have shown us, I think, is that, as far as South of the Black Pudding line is concerned, while there obviously a fairly solid basic Tory vote, the non Tory vote can go several ways, including, as in the SW recently actually to Tory. Even UKIP, especially in the locals wasn’t a ‘Once Upon A Time’ Tory vote; it was a NOTA or 'not at all’ vote.
    North of the Black Pudding line is different!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’r
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
    I totally trust your anecdotal experience - however my point was that there is nothing political in that meme, therefore even if those who have used it the most are indeed PB Tories, it is highly doubtful to only ever to have been used by Tories. 'Corbyn is a Commie' would be something which, while not used by all Tories, is surely only ever going to be used by a Tory, thus would seem a more inherently Tory like meme, rather than just a meme.

    It's like the distinction between what I would call political behaviours rather than partisan behaviours, that is the former will be used by all sides, the latter has to be something specific to one side. A meme capable of being used by all surely cannot be classed as an X meme. If Tories use emojis more does that make emojis a Tory thing? Will anyone who used a generic meme or emoji then be seen to be a Tory?

    I know it is a tiny, petty thing, but it bugs me as it just doesn't make sense to me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,219
    edited May 11
    Sajid Javid isn't far off overtaking Boris Johnson in the next PM stakes on Betfair Exchange to move into 3rd place.

    Johnson 11 / 14
    Javid 15 / 17
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,629
    Yorkcity said:

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    40% is still a pretty good score for Labour after they did less than impressively at the local elections.

    Miracle score given their offering.
    I imagine they could go higher , in a General Election campaign .
    Try to not imagine then.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 348
    Whenever I have Tweeted polls from other firms in recent months many Labour supporting followers have responded to say they will wait for Survation to see what it is showing.

    Why? Just because a pollster got GE X right, does that mean it is more likely to get GE X+1 right? Or is the whole thing just a random walk?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,046
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
    Apart from that not being the meaning, of course you will in your anecdotes have Tories use the word against you, you're left wing. You're hardly likely to get lefties saying it now. If and when other lefties (like the Guardian link) use the meme it is going to be aimed at Tories and other right wingers and not from them.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,314
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
    It doesn't mean that at all: it means so extreme that it cannot be parodied, because you cannot exaggerate what is already at a maximum. An example from that bastion of pb torydom, the Guardian: "Honk honk! All aboard the Brexit bus: the TV show that spoofs the unspoofable" https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/jun/07/power-monkeys-eu-referendum-satire-spoof-danger-nearly-live-tv-archie-panjabi
    It's a boring lazy insult used by PB Tories.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,314
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’r
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
    I totally trust your anecdotal experience - however my point was that there is nothing political in that meme, therefore even if those who have used it the most are indeed PB Tories, it is highly doubtful to only ever to have been used by Tories. 'Corbyn is a Commie' would be something which, while not used by all Tories, is surely only ever going to be used by a Tory, thus would seem a more inherently Tory like meme, rather than just a meme.

    It's like the distinction between what I would call political behaviours rather than partisan behaviours, that is the former will be used by all sides, the latter has to be something specific to one side. A meme capable of being used by all surely cannot be classed as an X meme. If Tories use emojis more does that make emojis a Tory thing? Will anyone who used a generic meme or emoji then be seen to be a Tory?

    I know it is a tiny, petty thing, but it bugs me as it just doesn't make sense to me.
    OK I understand what you are saying.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,615
    Nice that we are talking about Lewisham East rather than Lewisham Ilton for a change.

    If the LibDems get a poor second they can use that to create a neck-and-neck bar chart at the next GE.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,331

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    Oddly, I agree with you. Zealot, yes; populist, no.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,314

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
    Apart from that not being the meaning, of course you will in your anecdotes have Tories use the word against you, you're left wing. You're hardly likely to get lefties saying it now. If and when other lefties (like the Guardian link) use the meme it is going to be aimed at Tories and other right wingers and not from them.
    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,984
    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    That makes sense, don't you think? So out there that it would be impossible for anyone to satirise.
  • RogueywonRogueywon Posts: 23

    While I cannot see LD’s winning the seat I suspect it’s misleading to look just at the last election. What the last few elections have shown us, I think, is that, as far as South of the Black Pudding line is concerned, while there obviously a fairly solid basic Tory vote, the non Tory vote can go several ways, including, as in the SW recently actually to Tory. Even UKIP, especially in the locals wasn’t a ‘Once Upon A Time’ Tory vote; it was a NOTA or 'not at all’ vote.
    North of the Black Pudding line is different!

    True in some places, of course. But I just can't imagine this applying to Lewisham East. Most of the constituency is pretty hard-left - Corbynism (antisemitism and all) will have a strong appeal there. The Lib Dems might just about make some gains in the Tory bits in the corners, but even there, they'll need to move mountains to even get themselves from third place into second.

    This is a fundamentally different constituency from others in London where the LD message often lands well. Don't be fooled by that massive Remain vote - the muddled Labour position on Brexit won't be putting off their voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    Hmm...

    Did we not just have an opinion poll of several million? Admittedly, it wasn’t a particularly balanced poll ( far too many of these mad Londoners ) but still it showed 35% all. The trend does not seem to be favouring Labour but I think that will do me for now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,267
    DavidL said:

    Hmm...

    Did we not just have an opinion poll of several million? Admittedly, it wasn’t a particularly balanced poll ( far too many of these mad Londoners ) but still it showed 35% all. The trend does not seem to be favouring Labour but I think that will do me for now.

    Except in the locals the turnout is lower (probably favours Tories) and others such as residents associations and Lib Dems perform better (probably hurts the Tories).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    Sean_F said:

    Leave/Remain are also tied, according to Survation.

    Surely we get shown polling with an ever increasing remain lead every week? That can’t be right.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255
    Rogueywon said:

    While I cannot see LD’s winning the seat I suspect it’s misleading to look just at the last election. What the last few elections have shown us, I think, is that, as far as South of the Black Pudding line is concerned, while there obviously a fairly solid basic Tory vote, the non Tory vote can go several ways, including, as in the SW recently actually to Tory. Even UKIP, especially in the locals wasn’t a ‘Once Upon A Time’ Tory vote; it was a NOTA or 'not at all’ vote.
    North of the Black Pudding line is different!

    True in some places, of course. But I just can't imagine this applying to Lewisham East. Most of the constituency is pretty hard-left - Corbynism (antisemitism and all) will have a strong appeal there. The Lib Dems might just about make some gains in the Tory bits in the corners, but even there, they'll need to move mountains to even get themselves from third place into second.

    This is a fundamentally different constituency from others in London where the LD message often lands well. Don't be fooled by that massive Remain vote - the muddled Labour position on Brexit won't be putting off their voters.
    While I would bow to those who know rthe constituency I’m suspicious of decriptions of descriptions such as 'Most of the constituency is pretty hard-left’. While the people who do the shouting may well be, whether, in the privacy of the ballot box, their neighbours are I beg to doubt.
    I may well be wrong of course, but experience suggests......
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481

    Rogueywon said:

    I doubt Lewisham East will be interesting at all. I lived there for 7 years and it will vote overwhelmingly for Labour whoever the candidate and whatever the campaign. I doubt the national effects of the antisemitism row will be mirrored in Lewisham - it's telling that two of the front-runners for the candidacy have already been identified as having made troubling social media posts.

    There are a few corners of the constituency around Blackheath and Grove Park which are a bit bluer, but they're very much in the minority. The LDs were a distant third in GE2017 and while the bookies are getting excited about their chances in 2018, I just don't see the constituency having the right demographics for them to make a credible challenge to Labour.

    I can't see any sense in betting on anything other than a very strong Labour hold. Turnout levels may be more interesting and telling than the actual vote share.

    I cannot see the LD doing very well, they only got 2,000 votes in 2017 and that is 30,000 votes behind Labour. This will be an overwhelming Labour hold unfortunately and will strengthen Corbyn's grip on the PLP. Some of the ramping about LD prospects are laughable.
    While I cannot see LD’s winning the seat I suspect it’s misleading to look just at the last election. What the last few elections have shown us, I think, is that, as far as South of the Black Pudding line is concerned, while there obviously a fairly solid basic Tory vote, the non Tory vote can go several ways, including, as in the SW recently actually to Tory. Even UKIP, especially in the locals wasn’t a ‘Once Upon A Time’ Tory vote; it was a NOTA or 'not at all’ vote.
    North of the Black Pudding line is different!
    Where's the Black Pudding Line? Plenty of black pudding down here in Dorset - yum-yum!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm...

    Did we not just have an opinion poll of several million? Admittedly, it wasn’t a particularly balanced poll ( far too many of these mad Londoners ) but still it showed 35% all. The trend does not seem to be favouring Labour but I think that will do me for now.

    Except in the locals the turnout is lower (probably favours Tories) and others such as residents associations and Lib Dems perform better (probably hurts the Tories).
    So overall not too far off the mark then? And those clever clogs with models etc claim to have balanced all that out. I genuinely think it is even Steven’s at the moment. Which Labour are right to be worried about.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,319


    While I cannot see LD’s winning the seat I suspect it’s misleading to look just at the last election. What the last few elections have shown us, I think, is that, as far as South of the Black Pudding line is concerned, while there obviously a fairly solid basic Tory vote, the non Tory vote can go several ways, including, as in the SW recently actually to Tory. Even UKIP, especially in the locals wasn’t a ‘Once Upon A Time’ Tory vote; it was a NOTA or 'not at all’ vote.
    North of the Black Pudding line is different!

    I agree it's a huge task for the LDs to win Lewisham East and I've predicted a 5,000 Labour majority on a derisory turnout.

    The fragility of the Conservative vote in some areas has been amply demonstrated - apart from Richmond and Kingston where the Conservative performance was as bad as during the mid 90s, we had Tandridge where the Conservatives shipped nine seats.

    There are enough warning signals for Conservatives not to make any assumptions about the 2019 locals or anything else nor to get too excited about a finger-tip lead (which they had in July 2017 before losing it).
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,914
    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,267
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm...

    Did we not just have an opinion poll of several million? Admittedly, it wasn’t a particularly balanced poll ( far too many of these mad Londoners ) but still it showed 35% all. The trend does not seem to be favouring Labour but I think that will do me for now.

    Except in the locals the turnout is lower (probably favours Tories) and others such as residents associations and Lib Dems perform better (probably hurts the Tories).
    So overall not too far off the mark then? And those clever clogs with models etc claim to have balanced all that out. I genuinely think it is even Steven’s at the moment. Which Labour are right to be worried about.
    I think the locals were consistent with the polls being close. Of course, in FPTP, it doesn't take much for the outcome to change dramatically.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,013
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
    On what evidence do you base that statement?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,255

    Rogueywon said:

    I doubt Lewisham East will be interesting at all. I lived there for 7 years and it will vote overwhelmingly for Labour whoever the candidate and whatever the campaign. I doubt the national effects of the antisemitism row will be mirrored in Lewisham - it's telling that two of the front-runners for the candidacy have already been identified as having made troubling social media posts.

    While I cannot see LD’s winning the seat I suspect it’s misleading to look just at the last election. What the last few elections have shown us, I think, is that, as far as South of the Black Pudding line is concerned, while there obviously a fairly solid basic Tory vote, the non Tory vote can go several ways, including, as in the SW recently actually to Tory. Even UKIP, especially in the locals wasn’t a ‘Once Upon A Time’ Tory vote; it was a NOTA or 'not at all’ vote.
    North of the Black Pudding line is different!
    Where's the Black Pudding Line? Plenty of black pudding down here in Dorset - yum-yum!

    Rogueywon said:

    I

    There are a few corners of the constituency around Blackheath and Grove Park which are a bit bluer, but they're very much in the minority. The LDs were a distant third in GE2017 and while the bookies are getting excited about their chances in 2018, I just don't see the constituency having the right demographics for them to make a credible challenge to Labour.

    I can't see any sense in betting on anything other than a very strong Labour hold. Turnout levels may be more interesting and telling than the actual vote share.

    I cannot see the LD doing very well, they only got 2,000 votes in 2017 and that is 30,000 votes behind Labour. This will be an overwhelming Labour hold unfortunately and will strengthen Corbyn's grip on the PLP. Some of the ramping about LD prospects are laughable.
    While I cannot see LD’s winning the seat I suspect it’s misleading to look just at the last election. What the last few elections have shown us, I think, is that, as far as South of the Black Pudding line is concerned, while there obviously a fairly solid basic Tory vote, the non Tory vote can go several ways, including, as in the SW recently actually to Tory. Even UKIP, especially in the locals wasn’t a ‘Once Upon A Time’ Tory vote; it was a NOTA or 'not at all’ vote.
    North of the Black Pudding line is different!
    Where's the Black Pudding Line? Plenty of black pudding down here in Dorset - yum-yum!
    Really? I’ve obviously had breakfast in the wrong hotels! AIUI it’s roughly Hereford to The Wash.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    edited May 11

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
    On what evidence do you base that statement?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu-is-woeful-and-widening

    It is a major problem for us. And interrupting the flow of goods in any material way is a major issue for them, no matter what the politicians say.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,077
    It is rather shocking to see an opposition falling behind in the polls against a government that appears to be disintegrating before our eyes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    It is rather shocking to see an opposition falling behind in the polls against a government that appears to be disintegrating before our eyes.

    When one considers the alternative, I find it something of a relief myself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,158

    It is rather shocking to see an opposition falling behind in the polls against a government that appears to be disintegrating before our eyes.

    The Labour surge during the General Election campaign happened off the back of very public splits and candidates renouncing their own leader. Perhaps the received wisdom that splits are a bad thing needs updating, and actually by advertising a party's broad church status, they help it be all things to all people.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    It is rather shocking to see an opposition falling behind in the polls against a government that appears to be disintegrating before our eyes.

    The Labour surge during the General Election campaign happened off the back of very public splits and candidates renouncing their own leader. Perhaps the received wisdom that splits are a bad thing needs updating, and actually by advertising a party's broad church status, they help it be all things to all people.
    Or maybe people thought that he couldn’t win and that May with untrammelled power was undesirable.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
    I can think of no reason why that would be so and see no evidence to support your view.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,158
    DavidL said:

    It is rather shocking to see an opposition falling behind in the polls against a government that appears to be disintegrating before our eyes.

    The Labour surge during the General Election campaign happened off the back of very public splits and candidates renouncing their own leader. Perhaps the received wisdom that splits are a bad thing needs updating, and actually by advertising a party's broad church status, they help it be all things to all people.
    Or maybe people thought that he couldn’t win and that May with untrammelled power was undesirable.
    True but I do think the way it helped them dominate the airwaves prior to the Tory manifesto launch was a help.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,866

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    We need each other.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
    I can think of no reason why that would be so and see no evidence to support your view.
    Read the link. Post Brexit we will be the EU’s largest single customer. Unless they screw it up.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,282
    edited May 11
    Hardly compares to knife crime, shootings or acid attacks. Heat of the moment argument in London traffic - so some perspective needed.

    Being a London bus driver isn't an easy job - having to deal with London's congested roads and often difficult passengers.

    When it comes to labelling things hate crimes some perspective is also needed. Is saying white this or black that actually worse than saying I want to smash your face in without a racial reference. Sticks and stones and all that.

    Still the bus driver was obviously a remain voter!!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,312

    DavidL said:

    It is rather shocking to see an opposition falling behind in the polls against a government that appears to be disintegrating before our eyes.

    The Labour surge during the General Election campaign happened off the back of very public splits and candidates renouncing their own leader. Perhaps the received wisdom that splits are a bad thing needs updating, and actually by advertising a party's broad church status, they help it be all things to all people.
    Or maybe people thought that he couldn’t win and that May with untrammelled power was undesirable.
    True but I do think the way it helped them dominate the airwaves prior to the Tory manifesto launch was a help.
    The conventional wisdom on splits puts the cart before the horse. It is not that split parties are unpopular but that unpopular parties split.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,914
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,282
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sajid Javid has overtaken Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove in the next prime minister betting market. He's now number 4 behind Corbyn, Rees Mogg and Johnson.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094

    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    It would probably cause more consternation on the left to see the Tories have the first women prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
    It doesn't mean that at all: it means so extreme that it cannot be parodied, because you cannot exaggerate what is already at a maximum. An example from that bastion of pb torydom, the Guardian: "Honk honk! All aboard the Brexit bus: the TV show that spoofs the unspoofable" https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/jun/07/power-monkeys-eu-referendum-satire-spoof-danger-nearly-live-tv-archie-panjabi
    I quite enjoyed this spoof on project fear during the referendum campaign. The only way to Save the polar bears - is to vote remain.

  • RogueywonRogueywon Posts: 23

    While I would bow to those who know rthe constituency I’m suspicious of decriptions of descriptions such as 'Most of the constituency is pretty hard-left’. While the people who do the shouting may well be, whether, in the privacy of the ballot box, their neighbours are I beg to doubt.
    I may well be wrong of course, but experience suggests......

    Ok, yeah, I should have been more cautious in my wording. I'm not implying that most of the constituents are raving Trots out to smash the system...

    But living there for years, you get used to a general set of hard-left cultural assumptions that just run quietly through most of the locals. Try as I might, I just can't picture most of them voting for anybody other than Labour and, moreover, this is an area where I'd imagine Corbyn increases rather than reduces the Labour vote (though not much use to them in a General Election, as this seat is safely in the bag anyway).

    My prediction would be for the LDs to finish third. This may technically be a metropolitan seat, but it's not a constituency with a metropolitan mindset. Plus I don't think the Conservative vote, such as it is, will collapse. Their position is no worse now than it was at GE2017.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,481
    edited May 11
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
    I can think of no reason why that would be so and see no evidence to support your view.
    Read the link. Post Brexit we will be the EU’s largest single customer. Unless they screw it up.
    Hmmm... if trade remains unchanged we'd take 16% of the EU-27's exports; they'd take 44% of ours. Doesn't sound like "they need us more than we need them" to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,984
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    Mick Pork and ALP... good times.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,914
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    Ban hammer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
    I can think of no reason why that would be so and see no evidence to support your view.
    Read the link. Post Brexit we will be the EU’s largest single customer. Unless they screw it up.
    Hmmm... if trade remains unchanged we'd take 16% of the EU-27s exports; they'd take 44% of ours. Doesn't sound like "they need us more than we need them" to me.
    I suggest you research the word “deficit”. It’s really quite important in this context.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,250
    brendan16 said:

    Hardly compares to knife crime, shootings or acid attacks. Heat of the moment argument in London traffic - so some perspective needed.

    Being a London bus driver isn't an easy job - having to deal with London's congested roads and often difficult passengers.

    When it comes to labelling things hate crimes some perspective is also needed. Is saying white this or black that actually worse than saying I want to smash your face in without a racial reference. Sticks and stones and all that.

    Still the bus driver was obviously a remain voter!!
    Yes you are right,just bringing some balance from some of the remain side on here who think racism started when leave the EU won the referendum.

    Even the UN are getting involved,maybe these people were not around before brexit when the BNP were gaining support or the number of racist attacks on me and my family.

    UK has seen 'Brexit-related' growth in racism, says UN representative

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/11/uk-has-seen-brexit-related-growth-in-racism-says-un-representative
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 628
    edited May 11
    @mick_pork was the first user of “unspoofable” on PB that I recall... here’s an example of him using it during a particularly fractious evening’s discourse with @isam, @SeanT and others...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/22/the-newspaper-front-pages-as-they-come-in/

    Edit: see that @Ishmael_Z beat me to it
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,314
    edited May 11
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    *tears of laughter*

    PLEASE have more tory twits like Hammond intervene.

    Priceless.

    You evidently didn't hear the C4 interview then. Despite Krishnan G-M's best efforts he did not intervene in the Indy ref.....

    Do you think an Independent Scotland will get the Type 26 destroyer order?

    It will be announced late 2014.....

    Unspoofable.

    .
    You're right. It is not just PB Tories..
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    And now there’s Daniel Hannan, who popped up this week to agree the bed was being shat – I paraphrase slightly – and to concede that those suggesting Brexit is not working out quite how he thought it would “have got a point”. As Hannan put it: “I had assumed that, by now, we’d have reached a broad national consensus around a moderate form of withdrawal that recognised the narrowness of the result.” Had you? “Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups” – and if you weren’t a plastic populist, you’d have picked that up from Under Siege 2: Dark Territory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/brexit-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-house-of-lords

    Hyde displays her profound ignorance there. Hannan is anything but a populist as anyone who has actually read anything he has ever written will know. The woman is dumber than a bag of rocks.
    She is plainly not dumb; she's totally nailed the idiocy of the Leave camp, many of whom are now running around in increasingly tighter circles looking for someone to blame.

    Remember "they need us more than we need them"? Not hearing that so much these days?
    But they do. And eventually, unless we just give in, that will count.
    I can think of no reason why that would be so and see no evidence to support your view.
    Read the link. Post Brexit we will be the EU’s largest single customer. Unless they screw it up.
    Hmmm... if trade remains unchanged we'd take 16% of the EU-27's exports; they'd take 44% of ours. Doesn't sound like "they need us more than we need them" to me.
    It is the net effect that contributes to GDP, not the gross.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,386
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    He was banned.

    I think pound for pound we Gnats have had more bans than any other party, unless you consider the Holocaust deniers as such.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,906
    I guess GBP must like their governments to be a complete and total shambles...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    He was banned.

    I think pound for pound we Gnats have had more bans than any other party, unless you consider the Holocaust deniers as such.
    I am sure it is a badge of pride Divvie.

    It’s not my site but I regret the loss of the posters I disagree with more than the others. The site needs diversity of views.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,914
    Barnesian said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    *tears of laughter*

    PLEASE have more tory twits like Hammond intervene.

    Priceless.

    You evidently didn't hear the C4 interview then. Despite Krishnan G-M's best efforts he did not intervene in the Indy ref.....

    Do you think an Independent Scotland will get the Type 26 destroyer order?

    It will be announced late 2014.....

    Unspoofable.

    .
    You're right. It is not just PB Tories..
    Well done finding that, I find archive searches on PB virtually impossible.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,984
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    *tears of laughter*

    PLEASE have more tory twits like Hammond intervene.

    Priceless.

    You evidently didn't hear the C4 interview then. Despite Krishnan G-M's best efforts he did not intervene in the Indy ref.....

    Do you think an Independent Scotland will get the Type 26 destroyer order?

    It will be announced late 2014.....

    Unspoofable.

    .
    You're right. It is not just PB Tories..
    Well done finding that, I find archive searches on PB virtually impossible.
    Yes, the fact the search feature is so crap makes me wonder if some people are keeping quotes in a special file or something :D
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,386
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    He was banned.

    I think pound for pound we Gnats have had more bans than any other party, unless you consider the Holocaust deniers as such.
    I am sure it is a badge of pride Divvie.

    It’s not my site but I regret the loss of the posters I disagree with more than the others. The site needs diversity of views.
    I'd imagine if the posters in question abased themselves before Yahweh Smithson, they might be able to creep back.

    Hardly likely in the cases of the guys I'm thinking about though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    He was banned.

    I think pound for pound we Gnats have had more bans than any other party, unless you consider the Holocaust deniers as such.
    I am sure it is a badge of pride Divvie.

    It’s not my site but I regret the loss of the posters I disagree with more than the others. The site needs diversity of views.
    I'd imagine if the posters in question abased themselves before Yahweh Smithson, they might be able to creep back.

    Hardly likely in the cases of the guys I'm thinking about though.
    I miss James Kelly. Almost never agreed with him but he had a ready wit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,713
    edited May 11
    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    *tears of laughter*

    PLEASE have more tory twits like Hammond intervene.

    Priceless.

    You evidently didn't hear the C4 interview then. Despite Krishnan G-M's best efforts he did not intervene in the Indy ref.....

    Do you think an Independent Scotland will get the Type 26 destroyer order?

    It will be announced late 2014.....

    Unspoofable.

    .
    You're right. It is not just PB Tories..
    Well done finding that, I find archive searches on PB virtually impossible.
    Yes, the fact the search feature is so crap makes me wonder if some people are keeping quotes in a special file or something :D
    A few, but that's generally when I've found something to be particularly profound or insightful. Here's one that applies now as much as then:

    Casino RoyaleI think the phenomenon of voters calling for the real facts are similar to those of calling for politicians to be honest.

    If being honest got politicians votes, they would be honest; if telling the real facts got both Remain and Leave votes, then they would tell the real facts.

    In reality, both groups will do what they feel they need to in order to maximise their chances of most votes.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/06/gove-pushes-boris-out-off-the-top-slot-in-conhoms-latest-next-con-leader-survey/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,576
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    Not only would that be very profitable but the reaction of some on the left to the Tories having the first BAME PM will be great.
    prime minister and the first non-white PM as well.
    Some on this site seem obsessed with this topic, it’s odd. Especially since Conservatives state that they dislike identity politics.
    Ha! Indeed. Other weird PB Tory obsessions I have noted with dismay include:

    1. Writing “it’s a view” when they mean “I disagree” - deeply overused and unfunny
    2. Invoking the five stages of grief (usually at Remainers) - deeply overused and unfunny
    3. Telling us, over and again, how they didn’t like the Tube scene in His Darkest Hour
    LOL at that last one. ‘Unspoofable’ is another favourite of PB Tories as well
    Again, I am baffled that you think that - I find it highly improbable that only Tories have ever said 'unspooofable', therefore while it may be a meme, the idea it is a 'PB Tory' meme strikes me as very unlikely.

    You might as well say talking about pineapples on Pizza is a PB Tory obsession. It's true, but are they the only ones doing it?
    I don't know how to search PB for examples. But I do remember that on the two or three occasions it has been used against a comment of mine, it has been by a PB Tory.

    It is an irritating comment. It actually means can't be spoofed i.e. can't be fooled but it is just used as an insult.
    Apart from that not being the meaning, of course you will in your anecdotes have Tories use the word against you, you're left wing. You're hardly likely to get lefties saying it now. If and when other lefties (like the Guardian link) use the meme it is going to be aimed at Tories and other right wingers and not from them.
    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.
    Disagree. I think “a spoof” is a deception while “to spoof” is to create a deception, not “to deceive”

    Hence “unspoofable” means “impossible to create a deception” not “can’t be deceived”
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,386
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    He was banned.

    I think pound for pound we Gnats have had more bans than any other party, unless you consider the Holocaust deniers as such.
    I am sure it is a badge of pride Divvie.

    It’s not my site but I regret the loss of the posters I disagree with more than the others. The site needs diversity of views.
    I'd imagine if the posters in question abased themselves before Yahweh Smithson, they might be able to creep back.

    Hardly likely in the cases of the guys I'm thinking about though.
    I miss James Kelly. Almost never agreed with him but he had a ready wit.
    He also was/is scrupulously polite, an underrated quality.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,407

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    He was banned.

    I think pound for pound we Gnats have had more bans than any other party, unless you consider the Holocaust deniers as such.
    I am sure it is a badge of pride Divvie.

    It’s not my site but I regret the loss of the posters I disagree with more than the others. The site needs diversity of views.
    I'd imagine if the posters in question abased themselves before Yahweh Smithson, they might be able to creep back.

    Hardly likely in the cases of the guys I'm thinking about though.
    I miss James Kelly. Almost never agreed with him but he had a ready wit.
    He also was/is scrupulously polite, an underrated quality.
    Agreed. I do my best but occasionally let myself down.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,314
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:



    I take your point. Let's both watch out for examples to see if there is a pattern.

    Spoof means deceive as in the pub game or in computing. Unspoofable therefore means can't be deceived or fooled. I note it has a secondary meaning of "gently satirize" which I assume is the sense used on PB. Anyway it is a lazy insult.

    I promise you it doesn't mean that. It means "beyond parody".
    Agreed. But it is lazy.
    Come to think of it, it was the war-cry of Mick Pork, second only to tim as the scourge of PB tories.
    I’d forgotten that. Whatever happened to him?
    He was banned.

    I think pound for pound we Gnats have had more bans than any other party, unless you consider the Holocaust deniers as such.
    I am sure it is a badge of pride Divvie.

    It’s not my site but I regret the loss of the posters I disagree with more than the others. The site needs diversity of views.
    I'd imagine if the posters in question abased themselves before Yahweh Smithson, they might be able to creep back.

    Hardly likely in the cases of the guys I'm thinking about though.
    I miss James Kelly. Almost never agreed with him but he had a ready wit.
    Here's a classic http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/16/if-liam-byrne-is-right-my-12-1-hung-parliament-no-coalition-bet-could-be-a-winner/

    People, play nice or play in your separate corners without shouting at others.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,861
    Rexel56 said:

    @mick_pork was the first user of “unspoofable” on PB that I recall... here’s an example of him using it during a particularly fractious evening’s discourse with @isam, @SeanT and others...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/22/the-newspaper-front-pages-as-they-come-in/

    Edit: see that @Ishmael_Z beat me to it

    Lol. I see that rather amusing thread contained the following sage prediction from PB's Nostradamus:
    SeanT said:



    "Romney is going to win. Don't ask me how I know, I just KNOW. I travel around America a lot, and I can *sense* what is happening, under the radar. And it's pretty remarkable. Romney will WIN.'


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,379
    Lewisham East news, a local candidate has thrown his hat in the ring:

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,267
    Scott_P said:
    Was Black Wednesday caused by the Brexit Loons?
This discussion has been closed.