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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited May 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance of a by-election within 18 months

One of the intriguing facets of the current speculation over the Speaker, John Bercow, is that there could be a by-election within the next year and a half in the Buckingham parliamentary constituency.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,384
    First!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,384
    And two play hardball:

    The UK government could withhold security clearance for companies working on Europe’s Galileo satellite navigation system, in the latest clash over Brussels’ ban on Britain’s involvement in secure elements of the programme after Brexit.

    The UK Space Agency has written on behalf of UK business secretary Greg Clark to 13 British companies working on Galileo’s highly secure elements, to remind them they need the government’s security authorisation for any future work. The agency asked the companies to consult the government before agreeing to any new contracts. “I regret that these steps are a necessary consequence of the position taken by the European Commission,” the letter said...

    Industry insiders speculated that blocking all technology transfers by refusing security authorisation could impose a delay of up to three years on a programme already significantly behind schedule.


    https://www.ft.com/content/89bf0aca-579b-11e8-b8b2-d6ceb45fa9d0
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,667
    Any other ‘misunderstandings’ he’d like to clear up ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,802
    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,956
    Scott_P said:

    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
    Surely you mean "the EU's intransigence means that hard working British companies will not be used to the detriment of the project and tax payers."

    Or are you acknowledging that these things are just a stitch up?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,392
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
    Surely you mean "the EU's intransigence means that hard working British companies will not be used to the detriment of the project and tax payers."

    Or are you acknowledging that these things are just a stitch up?
    Is this the new “hard working families”?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,447

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
    Surely you mean "the EU's intransigence means that hard working British companies will not be used to the detriment of the project and tax payers."

    Or are you acknowledging that these things are just a stitch up?
    Is this the new “hard working families”?
    If so it's only just about managing.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 637
    Scott_P said:
    Another bubble for the cartoon could be "I hope a Jewish supporter of the criminal Zionist entity doesn't answer the door" - but such an encounter could be avoided if the canvasser noticed the mezuzah on the door.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,470
    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    This is why it’s pointless working yourself up into a fluster on here regarding Brexit negotiations. Most people simply have no clue what’s going on behind the scenes and gleefully react to every single tweet and headline, designed for your consumption. Every single time.

    So, a bit of circumspection, sceptical analysis and patience would be in order.

    Do I expect that?

    No.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
    Surely you mean "the EU's intransigence means that hard working British companies will not be used to the detriment of the project and tax payers."

    Or are you acknowledging that these things are just a stitch up?
    There is simply a negotiation going on.

    This is what they look like.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,447

    Most people simply have no clue what’s going on behind the scenes

    I'd be considerably happier if I thought that didn't apply to Davis and Barnier as well.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,980
    It's spin, but probably significant. The UK won't get top level access to Galileo without special agreement that isn't currently available to non EU countries. It's a question of whether you stress the default lack of access or the possibility of agreement..

    The UK government's threat to companies to stop them participating in Galileo is an empty one. They just move their operations abroad. I also doubt the UK would do its own system in the foreseeable future. It has a funding gap of up to £40 billion on existing defence projects according to the National Audit Office. Adding a realistic £10 billion or so to it is a stretch.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Good morning, everyone.

    I thought Buckingham was Toryland Central?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,474

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Prospective LD gain, more like.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Perhaps Osborne is interested in another job? :p
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    IanB2 said:

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Prospective LD gain, more like.
    Kinda funny how it’s only the LDs who are talking straight away about a LD gain, though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,968
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
    Surely you mean "the EU's intransigence means that hard working British companies will not be used to the detriment of the project and tax payers."

    Or are you acknowledging that these things are just a stitch up?
    I do wonder how a contractual clause aimed solely at companies from one member state is legal under EU procurement rules. But I suspect they don’t care
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522
    edited May 15

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    She still has that kind of pull?

    At least it woukd likely be a closer by-election than most. There'd be a chance of the lds snatching it I think.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Royale, just wait until they whip out those bar charts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
    Surely you mean "the EU's intransigence means that hard working British companies will not be used to the detriment of the project and tax payers."

    Or are you acknowledging that these things are just a stitch up?
    There is simply a negotiation going on.

    This is what they look like.
    Stuff like this doesn't worry me overmuch - as you say the sides are negotiating, saying you cannot have this or that, but clearly some things will change because that's how negotiation works - if we accepted all pronouncements at face value both sides would have stopped talking already, accepting they can gain nothing.

    It's the lack of agreement internally on wider issues that's our problem.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,667
    Scott_P said:

    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
    As I've pointed out before, Switzerland participates in the construction contracts (they make the clocks...), so it's hardly a point of principle on the EU's part.

    It seems as though they have just realised that the program is somewhat dependent on UK technology, which we've now threatened to withhold.

    Barnier is being more than a tad disingenuous... most unlike him, of course.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,968

    IanB2 said:

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Prospective LD gain, more like.
    Kinda funny how it’s only the LDs who are talking straight away about a LD gain, though.
    To be fair “only the LibDems can beat the Tories in Buckingham” is probably a true statement
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425
    kle4 said:



    Stuff like this doesn't worry me overmuch - as you say the sides are negotiating, saying you cannot have this or that, but clearly some things will change because that's how negotiation works - if we accepted all pronouncements at face value both sides would have stopped talking already, accepting they can gain nothing.

    It's the lack of agreement internally on wider issues that's our problem.

    Agree entirely.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575

    Good morning, everyone.

    I thought Buckingham was Toryland Central?

    Remain Central if my friends there are anything to go by.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363
    daodao said:

    Scott_P said:
    Another bubble for the cartoon could be "I hope a Jewish supporter of the criminal Zionist entity doesn't answer the door" - but such an encounter could be avoided if the canvasser noticed the mezuzah on the door.
    Between them, the gammons, coconuts, uncle toms, and zios must make up a high proportion of voters in some boroughs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    edited May 15
    How do you think the Corbynistas would react if I told them

    1) A former MP for Buckingham was a Mossad spy

    2) A billionaire

    3) Stole the pensions of lots of hard working working class people

    4) Jewish

    5) Died in mysterious circumstances and was buried in Jerusalem

    If Harold Wilson's Labour can win Buckingham then so should Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    We are exlcuded from the lucrative contracts to build it, but we can pay to use it.

    That sounds like a BRILLIANT deal.

    Brexit delivers, again...
    As I've pointed out before, Switzerland participates in the construction contracts (they make the clocks...), so it's hardly a point of principle on the EU's part.

    It seems as though they have just realised that the program is somewhat dependent on UK technology, which we've now threatened to withhold.

    Barnier is being more than a tad disingenuous... most unlike him, of course.
    The EU's argument is that the UK and EU can't trust each other enough to share confidential security matters. Fine - then the EU does not get any of our intelligence. It should be a fairly simple negotiation position.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Take away Scrapheap's shoe laces and belt.

    So Poch is about to do one to Chelsea.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    FF43 said:

    It's spin, but probably significant. The UK won't get top level access to Galileo without special agreement that isn't currently available to non EU countries. It's a question of whether you stress the default lack of access or the possibility of agreement..

    The UK government's threat to companies to stop them participating in Galileo is an empty one. They just move their operations abroad. I also doubt the UK would do its own system in the foreseeable future. It has a funding gap of up to £40 billion on existing defence projects according to the National Audit Office. Adding a realistic £10 billion or so to it is a stretch.
    There is tremendous positive effect on R&D from having a space program. NASA's work led to the US developing Silicon Valley. We should absolutely do it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246
    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611

    Take away Scrapheap's shoe laces and belt.

    So Poch is about to do one to Chelsea.

    You couldn’t blame him. Career expectancy at Chelsea is short but lucrative. Most of us, if offered the chance to take the money and run, would decide we needed the exercise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. L, surely it wouldn't, as the Speaker and three Deputies are an even mix of red and blue?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    The same was true for Richmond Park.

    I wouldn’t expect a Lib Dem win but they might give the Conservatives quite a fright.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    edited May 15

    Take away Scrapheap's shoe laces and belt.

    So Poch is about to do one to Chelsea.

    You couldn’t blame him. Career expectancy at Chelsea is short but lucrative. Most of us, if offered the chance to take the money and run, would decide we needed the exercise.
    Spurs have an £850 million stadium to pay for and Levy's alway been parsimonious.

    Plus with even Liverpool going to spend a reported £250 million this summer standing still isn't going to be an option for Spurs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246

    Take away Scrapheap's shoe laces and belt.

    So Poch is about to do one to Chelsea.

    Weird move. From a CL club to one that is not. From a young and quite exciting squad to one needing a radical overhaul. Surely any such discussion is just a way of trying to get Levy to get the chequebook out.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440
    Morning everyone!

    A thread on my Principality - the Bercow republic.... what a great way to start the day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    DavidL said:

    Take away Scrapheap's shoe laces and belt.

    So Poch is about to do one to Chelsea.

    Weird move. From a CL club to one that is not. From a young and quite exciting squad to one needing a radical overhaul. Surely any such discussion is just a way of trying to get Levy to get the chequebook out.
    The story I read over the weekend is that Spurs had budgeted £500 million for the new stadium but it has cost £850 million.

    It's Arsenal moving to The Emirates all over again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575
    LD wins in Lewisham and Buckingham would be the stuff of Vince’s dreams.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440
    RobD said:

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Perhaps Osborne is interested in another job? :p
    Cor.... imagine if we got the mighty George as our MP.... that's like Bale coming back to Spurs
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272
    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    Would it? I thought that if the next Speaker is one of the Labour deputies, the Tories will supply another deputy speaker. Similarly, if it's a Labour MP from the back benches, one of the Labour deputies will be replaced with a Tory. Status quo ante.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522

    LD wins in Lewisham and Buckingham would be the stuff of Vince’s dreams.

    I feel like as a seasoned political animal even his dreams for the lds would be more restrained than a win in Lewisham.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440

    Take away Scrapheap's shoe laces and belt.

    So Poch is about to do one to Chelsea.

    Come again..... don't ruin the start to my day...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246

    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    The same was true for Richmond Park.

    I wouldn’t expect a Lib Dem win but they might give the Conservatives quite a fright.
    A lot depends on timing but I really don't see it. If the Speaker hangs on into next year the range of uncertainty increases somewhat depending on how you know what has worked out. It is the sort of place where the Tories will have a lot to lose and not much to gain at the locals next year. If the Lib Dems did better then they may improve their profile but the Libs have not held the seat since 1910.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425

    Take away Scrapheap's shoe laces and belt.

    So Poch is about to do one to Chelsea.

    You couldn’t blame him. Career expectancy at Chelsea is short but lucrative. Most of us, if offered the chance to take the money and run, would decide we needed the exercise.
    Tbh I suspect Levy may look to take the money and run before too long.
    The transformation he's overseen at Spurs is seriously impressive, once they've got the new stadium built/started it's probably a great time to sell.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522
    Bercow is not a fan of convention, what chance he defies it by not being elevated as a crossbench peer whenever he does step down?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Prospective LD gain, more like.
    Kinda funny how it’s only the LDs who are talking straight away about a LD gain, though.
    To be fair “only the LibDems can beat the Tories in Buckingham” is probably a true statement
    It’s a seat I could only see the Tories losing if they were on course for a heavy defeat nationally.

    It’s not the 1990s any more. And the LoTO is not the slightly more benign Blair.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,751
    Interesting article which I missed when it appeared last year. Editorial summary: younger and better-educated people are not becoming more socialist, but they're more socially liberal, and find the Conservatives culturally out of tune - but there are issues for Labour too.

    https://medium.com/@psurridge/whos-left-9a722cf4db50
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440

    DavidL said:

    Take away Scrapheap's shoe laces and belt.

    So Poch is about to do one to Chelsea.

    Weird move. From a CL club to one that is not. From a young and quite exciting squad to one needing a radical overhaul. Surely any such discussion is just a way of trying to get Levy to get the chequebook out.
    The story I read over the weekend is that Spurs had budgeted £500 million for the new stadium but it has cost £850 million.

    It's Arsenal moving to The Emirates all over again.
    We sell Sissoko for £300m.

    Sorted.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246
    kle4 said:

    Bercow is not a fan of convention, what chance he defies it by not being elevated as a crossbench peer whenever he does step down?

    What, and miss the chance to dress up? I think not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522

    Interesting article which I missed when it appeared last year. Editorial summary: younger and better-educated people are not becoming more socialist, but they're more socially liberal, and find the Conservatives culturally out of tune - but there are issues for Labour too.

    https://medium.com/@psurridge/whos-left-9a722cf4db50

    My general assumption is that younger people are socially very liberal but plenty of them are not economically so, therefore while labour dominance would remain expected, the tories should be doing better.

    I am surprised in that piece that the young are least likely to support rail renationalisat ion ((while still a majority).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    Would it? I thought that if the next Speaker is one of the Labour deputies, the Tories will supply another deputy speaker. Similarly, if it's a Labour MP from the back benches, one of the Labour deputies will be replaced with a Tory. Status quo ante.
    Yes, I had forgotten that a new deputy will be appointed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,470
    kle4 said:

    Bercow is not a fan of convention, what chance he defies it by not being elevated as a crossbench peer whenever he does step down?

    He could stay in the Commons and take the Labour/LibDem/Green whip.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Bercow is not a fan of convention, what chance he defies it by not being elevated as a crossbench peer whenever he does step down?

    What, and miss the chance to dress up? I think not.
    What if he decides to take someone's whip while up there?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Prospective LD gain, more like.
    Kinda funny how it’s only the LDs who are talking straight away about a LD gain, though.
    To be fair “only the LibDems can beat the Tories in Buckingham” is probably a true statement
    It’s a seat I could only see the Tories losing if they were on course for a heavy defeat nationally.

    It’s not the 1990s any more. And the LoTO is not the slightly more benign Blair.
    Wilson was Leader when Buckingham went Labour. Just saying.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425
    edited May 15

    Interesting article which I missed when it appeared last year. Editorial summary: younger and better-educated people are not becoming more socialist, but they're more socially liberal, and find the Conservatives culturally out of tune - but there are issues for Labour too.

    https://medium.com/@psurridge/whos-left-9a722cf4db50

    Great article. Thanks for sharing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Bercow is not a fan of convention, what chance he defies it by not being elevated as a crossbench peer whenever he does step down?

    What, and miss the chance to dress up? I think not.
    What if he decides to take someone's whip while up there?
    He may well do that. I somewhat suspect that the Tory whips will not regard him as a particularly likely prospect.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440
    Bercow is an embedded and assiduous local MP - working the villages, turning up to school and village fairs etc albeit not seen him so much in the last few years in our part of the Republic.

    Any unknown replacement would be hard pushed to get that level of glad-handing - as we saw high-level posing a la Farage doesn't go down as well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    The same was true for Richmond Park.

    I wouldn’t expect a Lib Dem win but they might give the Conservatives quite a fright.
    A lot depends on timing but I really don't see it. If the Speaker hangs on into next year the range of uncertainty increases somewhat depending on how you know what has worked out. It is the sort of place where the Tories will have a lot to lose and not much to gain at the locals next year. If the Lib Dems did better then they may improve their profile but the Libs have not held the seat since 1910.
    It's probably too rural (and thus Conservative) to cause an upset, unless either the County or District council, or the government, do something to seriously alienate local Conservatives. At this stage, I'd expect a result more like Witney than Richmond Park.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Prospective LD gain, more like.
    Kinda funny how it’s only the LDs who are talking straight away about a LD gain, though.
    To be fair “only the LibDems can beat the Tories in Buckingham” is probably a true statement
    It’s a seat I could only see the Tories losing if they were on course for a heavy defeat nationally.

    It’s not the 1990s any more. And the LoTO is not the slightly more benign Blair.
    Wilson was Leader when Buckingham went Labour. Just saying.
    Ancient history.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246

    Bercow is an embedded and assiduous local MP - working the villages, turning up to school and village fairs etc albeit not seen him so much in the last few years in our part of the Republic.

    Any unknown replacement would be hard pushed to get that level of glad-handing - as we saw high-level posing a la Farage doesn't go down as well.

    Presumably there will be some reasonably prominent councillors who would fancy the gig? Like the all councillor shortlist in Lewisham.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Prospective LD gain, more like.
    Kinda funny how it’s only the LDs who are talking straight away about a LD gain, though.
    To be fair “only the LibDems can beat the Tories in Buckingham” is probably a true statement
    It’s a seat I could only see the Tories losing if they were on course for a heavy defeat nationally.

    It’s not the 1990s any more. And the LoTO is not the slightly more benign Blair.
    Wilson was Leader when Buckingham went Labour. Just saying.
    Though it did include Milton Keynes, then.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,688

    Interesting article which I missed when it appeared last year. Editorial summary: younger and better-educated people are not becoming more socialist, but they're more socially liberal, and find the Conservatives culturally out of tune - but there are issues for Labour too.

    https://medium.com/@psurridge/whos-left-9a722cf4db50

    New Labour, New Britain
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Meeks, slightly different, though, as Goldsmith's resignation was (whilst keeping a daft promise) utterly vacuous, and by itself transformed the by-election into a single issue matter in which the Conservatives were on the other side of opinion to the local electorate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,470
    DavidL said:

    Bercow is an embedded and assiduous local MP - working the villages, turning up to school and village fairs etc albeit not seen him so much in the last few years in our part of the Republic.

    Any unknown replacement would be hard pushed to get that level of glad-handing - as we saw high-level posing a la Farage doesn't go down as well.

    Presumably there will be some reasonably prominent councillors who would fancy the gig? Like the all councillor shortlist in Lewisham.
    I need a trigger warning before reading posts like that!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    The same was true for Richmond Park.

    I wouldn’t expect a Lib Dem win but they might give the Conservatives quite a fright.
    A lot depends on timing but I really don't see it. If the Speaker hangs on into next year the range of uncertainty increases somewhat depending on how you know what has worked out. It is the sort of place where the Tories will have a lot to lose and not much to gain at the locals next year. If the Lib Dems did better then they may improve their profile but the Libs have not held the seat since 1910.
    It's probably too rural (and thus Conservative) to cause an upset, unless either the County or District council, or the government, do something to seriously alienate local Conservatives. At this stage, I'd expect a result more like Witney than Richmond Park.
    The number of new builds proposed is causing some consternation ... parish plans all over the place to throw up 100s of non-starter homes on paddocks and fields around the edges might be an issue in many of the towns/villages.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611


    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. P, disagree at least partially with that assessment. The Lords and some MPs batting for the other side provide a ready explanation for discontent with the final result. The electorate voted to run free, the Lords are insisting we have a ball and chain manacled to our leg.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,667
    Elliot said:

    FF43 said:

    It's spin, but probably significant. The UK won't get top level access to Galileo without special agreement that isn't currently available to non EU countries. It's a question of whether you stress the default lack of access or the possibility of agreement..

    The UK government's threat to companies to stop them participating in Galileo is an empty one. They just move their operations abroad. I also doubt the UK would do its own system in the foreseeable future. It has a funding gap of up to £40 billion on existing defence projects according to the National Audit Office. Adding a realistic £10 billion or so to it is a stretch.
    There is tremendous positive effect on R&D from having a space program. NASA's work led to the US developing Silicon Valley....
    That was rather more US aerospace defence spending, and DARPA.

    But you are probably still right about the benefits.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    The same was true for Richmond Park.

    I wouldn’t expect a Lib Dem win but they might give the Conservatives quite a fright.
    A lot depends on timing but I really don't see it. If the Speaker hangs on into next year the range of uncertainty increases somewhat depending on how you know what has worked out. It is the sort of place where the Tories will have a lot to lose and not much to gain at the locals next year. If the Lib Dems did better then they may improve their profile but the Libs have not held the seat since 1910.
    It's probably too rural (and thus Conservative) to cause an upset, unless either the County or District council, or the government, do something to seriously alienate local Conservatives. At this stage, I'd expect a result more like Witney than Richmond Park.
    The number of new builds proposed is causing some consternation ... parish plans all over the place to throw up 100s of non-starter homes on paddocks and fields around the edges might be an issue in many of the towns/villages.
    That could help the Lib Dems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    Buckinghamshire is probably the most ultra safe Tory county in the country. In 1993 after a disastrous set of county council elections it was the only county where the Tories maintained overall control and Bercow had pretty healthy majorities in both 1997 and 2001 despite the Blair landslides.

    I would expect a solid Tory hold in any by election even if the LDs made inroads
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,478
    The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.

    (NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Sean_F said:

    daodao said:

    Scott_P said:
    Another bubble for the cartoon could be "I hope a Jewish supporter of the criminal Zionist entity doesn't answer the door" - but such an encounter could be avoided if the canvasser noticed the mezuzah on the door.
    Between them, the gammons, coconuts, uncle toms, and zios must make up a high proportion of voters in some boroughs.
    But remember, verbally abusing someone based on their skin colour isn't racist.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,470



    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.

    My take on that is that May thinks that the democratic wishes of the people of Northern Ireland should be ignored if they don't align with the position of the Conservative Party (and their chums in the DUP).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,688



    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.

    My take on that is that May thinks that the democratic wishes of the people of Northern Ireland should be ignored if they don't align with the position of the Conservative Party (and their chums in the DUP).
    Mogg is not as good as he thinks he is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711

    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    The same was true for Richmond Park.

    I wouldn’t expect a Lib Dem win but they might give the Conservatives quite a fright.
    The LDs already held Richmond Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Buckingham
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440
    HYUFD said:

    Buckinghamshire is probably the most ultra safe Tory county in the country. In 1993 after a disastrous set of county council elections it was the only county where the Tories maintained overall control and Bercow had pretty healthy majorities in both 1997 and 2001 despite the Blair landslides.

    I would expect a solid Tory hold in any by election even if the LDs made inroads

    Depends on the Tory candidate, a head-banging Brexiteer would not go down well.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,203

    IanB2 said:

    Sort of on topic:

    I wonder how many tourists pitch up in Buckingham looking for the palace?

    Con 50%
    LD 35%
    Lab 10%
    Others 5%

    Nice safe seat for one of Tezzie's advisors to be parachuted into.

    Prospective LD gain, more like.
    Kinda funny how it’s only the LDs who are talking straight away about a LD gain, though.
    It might well happen,where the lib dems are winning,didn't you know the lib dems are the new posh party now.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611



    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.

    My take on that is that May thinks that the democratic wishes of the people of Northern Ireland should be ignored if they don't align with the position of the Conservative Party (and their chums in the DUP).
    Democracy is already a heavily moderated concept in Northern Ireland and for good reason. Northern Ireland needs to proceed by consensus, not a bare majority, whichever way that bare majority points at any given moment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 2,731



    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.

    First time I can remember May saying anything sensible for a long time.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Buckinghamshire CC has 41 out of 49 Conservative Councillors. If the government was on the ropes anything can happen at a bye election but at the moment they have a modest lead in the polls and the Lib Dems are nowhere. I really don't see this being any closer than Lewisham.

    It would of course boost the government majority by 1. Unlikely to be decisive but welcome.

    The same was true for Richmond Park.

    I wouldn’t expect a Lib Dem win but they might give the Conservatives quite a fright.
    The LDs already held Richmond Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Buckingham
    That does not appear to be the view of many of your fellow Conservatives.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 17
    I live in a reasonably sized village in the Buckinghamshire constituency so hopefully have some knowledge. Although considering the large size and odd shape of it, different parts have very different views.

    Of the people that I know well (early 40s with kids under 10) in the area they are almost without exception pro-Remain. I was the panto villain who voted Leave and had (and still do sometimes) some interesting conversations on the topic.

    A lot of the people who live here have moved out of London, the majority of which are soft left (a small number of Corbynistas and Tories). The older generation who have lived here for a while I am sure are Tories in the majority and pro-Leave but that is normal across the country.

    Bercow has a lot of support locally as he has done a lot of work for good causes, schools etc. and has been very publicly visible. He will therefore I'm sure have some level of personal vote although that was the never the case from me as I've not liked him.

    My gut feel is that this is still a safe Tory seat as the older generations will all vote Tory having experienced 70s style socialism before. For my generation I think a lot will just not vote as they will not know who to vote for. The Tories are taking us out of the EU which will prevent a lot voting for them. Corbyn and his policies also do not appeal to a large number of people here and in fact he is a running joke. Who is going to vote for Vince Cable? The Greens have always done quite well here but obviously nowhere near well enough to get elected.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440
    Brilliant - next up, MP takes up the negotiations for UK with the EU in his spare time...

    Martial, Sessegnon and Zaha.... wow. Replacing Sissoko and Llorente.... shame re Toby and Danny though.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425
    Roger said:

    The news channels are wall to wall Israeli brutality. It'll be interesting if Corbyn for once is able to step up to the plate or whether he'll be intimidated by the shadow of Guido and the 'Friends of Israel' in his own party.

    (NB Jeremy Bowen is one of the few journalists worth listening to because he has a real knowledge of the history of the region)

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/middle-east/news/95168/jeremy-corbyn-blasts-uk-response-‘flagrant-illegality’-israeli
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363



    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.

    My take on that is that May thinks that the democratic wishes of the people of Northern Ireland should be ignored if they don't align with the position of the Conservative Party (and their chums in the DUP).
    A Border Poll almost certainly would be won by the pro-Union side, but would still be hugely divisive.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,425

    Interesting article which I missed when it appeared last year. Editorial summary: younger and better-educated people are not becoming more socialist, but they're more socially liberal, and find the Conservatives culturally out of tune - but there are issues for Labour too.

    https://medium.com/@psurridge/whos-left-9a722cf4db50

    Yes it is interesting. I have always regarded the self actualisation of young people from the Sixties onwards as an essentially consumerist and right wing phenomenon, with more than a tint of selfishness.

    It is also interesting to see how economically socialist the former kippers are. Hannanite and Foxite free trade is not what they are after. It is not just the Labour party trying to ride two horses at the same time. Tories holding onto those former kippers is not a done deal, and Corbynism is not the anathema that some opine.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,440
    AlistairM said:

    I live in a reasonably sized village in the Buckinghamshire constituency so hopefully have some knowledge. Although considering the large size and odd shape of it, different parts have very different views.

    Of the people that I know well (early 40s with kids under 10) in the area they are almost without exception pro-Remain. I was the panto villain who voted Leave and had (and still do sometimes) some interesting conversations on the topic.

    A lot of the people who live here have moved out of London, the majority of which are soft left (a small number of Corbynistas and Tories). The older generation who have lived here for a while I am sure are Tories in the majority and pro-Leave but that is normal across the country.

    Bercow has a lot of support locally as he has done a lot of work for good causes, schools etc. and has been very publicly visible. He will therefore I'm sure have some level of personal vote although that was the never the case from me as I've not liked him.

    My gut feel is that this is still a safe Tory seat as the older generations will all vote Tory having experienced 70s style socialism before. For my generation I think a lot will just not vote as they will not know who to vote for. The Tories are taking us out of the EU which will prevent a lot voting for them. Corbyn and his policies also do not appeal to a large number of people here and in fact he is a running joke. Who is going to vote for Vince Cable? The Greens have always done quite well here but obviously nowhere near well enough to get elected.

    Well said - although there are Lib Dem pockets around and a Brexiteer Tory would turn quite a few of us Tory Remainers to look at them potentially.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425
    Sean_F said:



    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.

    My take on that is that May thinks that the democratic wishes of the people of Northern Ireland should be ignored if they don't align with the position of the Conservative Party (and their chums in the DUP).
    A Border Poll almost certainly would be won by the pro-Union side, but would still be hugely divisive.
    I'm with Theresa May - if we've learnt anything from the past few years it's surely to avoid overconfidence about which way referenda and elections will go. Plus the prospect of violence must be pretty high, especially if the people did vote for a united Ireland.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 8,688
    AlistairM said:

    I live in a reasonably sized village in the Buckinghamshire constituency so hopefully have some knowledge. Although considering the large size and odd shape of it, different parts have very different views.

    Of the people that I know well (early 40s with kids under 10) in the area they are almost without exception pro-Remain. I was the panto villain who voted Leave and had (and still do sometimes) some interesting conversations on the topic.

    A lot of the people who live here have moved out of London, the majority of which are soft left (a small number of Corbynistas and Tories). The older generation who have lived here for a while I am sure are Tories in the majority and pro-Leave but that is normal across the country.

    Bercow has a lot of support locally as he has done a lot of work for good causes, schools etc. and has been very publicly visible. He will therefore I'm sure have some level of personal vote although that was the never the case from me as I've not liked him.

    My gut feel is that this is still a safe Tory seat as the older generations will all vote Tory having experienced 70s style socialism before. For my generation I think a lot will just not vote as they will not know who to vote for. The Tories are taking us out of the EU which will prevent a lot voting for them. Corbyn and his policies also do not appeal to a large number of people here and in fact he is a running joke. Who is going to vote for Vince Cable? The Greens have always done quite well here but obviously nowhere near well enough to get elected.

    It is within the realms of possibility that Buckingham might stay with the Tories.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,980



    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.

    The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.

    The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,384
    Brexit, obvs.

    ING: It's a black eye for Germany

    At just 0.3%, this is Germany’s weakest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2016.

    ING economist Carsten Brzeski says Germany had a ‘stumbling start’ into 2018, for a variety of reasons:

    Trade and government consumption were a drag on growth. Also, don’t forget that a couple of one-off factors like the cold winter weather, early Easter vacation and strikes probably distorted first quarter data.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/15/german-growth-slows-trade-uk-unemployment-wage-growth-business-live
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    Alistair Campbell mocks Keir Starmer over Labour's Brexit position

    https://mobile.twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/996259583512412160
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    FF43 said:



    Two points:

    1) Theresa May seems to really dislike Jacob Rees-Mogg.
    2) Reports of him being taken apart by the Prime Minister are not going to do his standing any good.

    The interesting demographic development in Northern Ireland is the small (15-20%) secular non-aligned group calling a plague on the two Northern Irish ideologies, who do identify themselves as Irish and who are breaking very strongly for Republican and Irish government positions on the border, customs arrangements etc. The DUP would almost certainly lose a vote in Northern Ireland on a hard border proposal and might lose it on a reunification poll if the practicalities of such an arrangement could be sorted out.

    The other takeaway is that Theresa May is allergic to votes.
    If Northern Ireland voted to join the republic, what is the problem? It would be in line with self-determination principles, remove the customs union issues, and provide spare cash for the NHS. Probably enough, along with a saved membership fee, to provide £350m a week.
This discussion has been closed.