Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A good test of how MPs view Brexit in this vote tomorrow

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited May 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A good test of how MPs view Brexit in this vote tomorrow

Do you enjoy big Commons votes? Then you’ll enjoy this tomorrow. Lose – and the government must reveal all its Brexit subcommittee papers! pic.twitter.com/CYIZFbpKWV

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    God I love Parliamentary votes.

    I guess this is what taking back control means right?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    This House is showing again.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    I would have thought the hard Brexiteers will vote for this so they can expose the Robbins conspiracy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    If the government loses this vote then I anticipate a very awkward time for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272
    I’m sure the EU Commission would love to read them.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425
    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,366
    Just another Brexit day ....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,396
    Is it the papers for the bank, the papers for the shareholders, the papers for the employees, the papers for the directors, the papers for the auditors or heaven forbid the actual papers though :) ?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    I genuinely don't see the problem with showing them. Indeed 'losing' this vote might actually help May. She could do with some leverage over the hard-right Brexiteer nutters that act as if they run the bloody country.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Pulpstar said:

    Is it the papers for the bank, the papers for the shareholders, the papers for the employees, the papers for the directors, the papers for the auditors or heaven forbid the actual papers though :) ?

    The political Caparo v Dickman?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    What difference will showing these papers actually make other than potentially giving away a bit too much information to the EU
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,980
    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Theresa May = Charles I

    John Bercow = Speak Lenthall

    Discuss.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,259

    Theresa May = Charles I

    John Bercow = Speak Lenthall

    Discuss.

    Not sure I get the analogy. Who's she planning to arrest?
  • Presumably this vote is one reason why the PM wheeled in Tory MPs to downing Street for a briefing yesterday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569

    Theresa May = Charles I

    John Bercow = Speak Lenthall

    Discuss.

    Not sure I get the analogy. Who's she planning to arrest?
    The Tory Rebels but I've had the quote 'May it please your majesty, i have neither eyes to see, nor tongue to speak, in this place, but as the house is pleased to direct me, whose servant I am here; and I humbly ask pardon that I cannot give any other answer to what your majesty is pleased to demand of me' in my head for days.

    Seemed apt for this vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    edited May 15
    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    This is wrong. There is a very strong sovereignty argument against Brexit because it will necessarily involve us having less influence over things that affect us.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    What’s the point of negotiation if you just do as the other side tells you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    This is wrong. There is a very strong sovereignty argument against Brexit because it will necessarily involve us having less influence over things that affect us.
    Not necessarily, especially if you argue Brexit enables us to gain greater control over our laws and borders and make our own trade deals
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    RobD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    What’s the point of negotiation if you just do as the other side tells you?
    A good question and one which Leavers should reflect on. When they tried to take back control, they lost Britain much of its power.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,838
    RobD said:

    I’m sure the EU Commission would love to read them.

    There is a difficult balance here: the public airing of these documents might disadvantage the UK*, but by showing nothing to parliament, it is next to impossible for our representatives to question the executive.

    My solution would be for closed sessions with cross party representatives and a vow of secrecy. (Such secrecy would not have to be permanent - nine to twelve months would probably be sufficient.)

    * albeit the EU has been very open in publishing its documentation, which means that all journalists tend to see is the EU side of the story
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,838
    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
    Both Salvini and Di Maio will certainly demand an easing of Eurozone fiscal rules and tougher immigration policies and with Italy the EU's 4th largest economy and with the EU already coping with the departure of its second largest economy will have much more leeway than Tsipras and the Greeks had to get concessions
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,838
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
    Both Salvini and Di Maio will certainly demand an easing of Eurozone fiscal rules and tougher immigration policies and with Italy the EU's 4th largest economy and with the EU already coping with the departure of its second largest economy will have much more leeway than Tsipras and the Greeks had to get concessions
    Good for them.

    The issue Italy has is the same one Greece has. The country is deeply split on Euro membership, and it is the opposite split to the UK. Old people have massive Euro denominated savings. (Indeed, Italians' financial assets are the highest of any major Eurozone economy.)

    Leaving the Euro means cutting the real value of old people's savings and pensions. And the EU knows this. So, Italy's leverage is limited.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Eagles, it's indicative of what a poor job May is doing. Procrastination may feel good, but in the end you're just screwing yourself.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    edited May 15

    Mr. Eagles, it's indicative of what a poor job May is doing. Procrastination may feel good, but in the end you're just screwing yourself.

    Perhaps she fell for the hype of the Leavers saying the UK held all the aces in negotiations, that it would be the easiest deal in history.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    edited May 15
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
    Both Salvini and Di Maio will certainly demand an easing of Eurozone fiscal rules and tougher immigration policies and with Italy the EU's 4th largest economy and with the EU already coping with the departure of its second largest economy will have much more leeway than Tsipras and the Greeks had to get concessions
    Good for them.

    The issue Italy has is the same one Greece has. The country is deeply split on Euro membership, and it is the opposite split to the UK. Old people have massive Euro denominated savings. (Indeed, Italians' financial assets are the highest of any major Eurozone economy.)

    Leaving the Euro means cutting the real value of old people's savings and pensions. And the EU knows this. So, Italy's leverage is limited.
    It was the young and middle aged who largely voted for Di Maio and Salvini, pensioners were more likely to vote for Berlusconi or Renzi and safety first so the incoming government in Italy will not be so beholden to pensioners
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Eagles, perhaps she's indecisive and lacks judgement.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,980

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    The only rational explanation I can find for Theresa May devoting so much effort into debating options that don't exist is that she is deliberately running down the clock on displacement activity so the UK will be forced at the last minute to accept a Withdrawal Agreement, as is, and containing the NI backstop that she said no British PM could agree to.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    Scott_P said:
    :lol:

    I assume it will just say 'Brexit means Brexit'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,669
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't need to bark....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,980
    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    Barnier is tactless. Unlike most of the EU people, actually.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522

    Theresa May = Charles I

    John Bercow = Speak Lenthall

    Discuss.

    Parliament is more divided in what it wants than the long parliament at the time, and it was hardly totally united, so how does he represent it's will as well?

    If parliament votes May's way, then it will have exercised authority nonetheless, and the analogy falls yet further.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. 43, that's a credible possibility. And wretched.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    Will Theresa May be the one to do a Gorbachev on the UK? She's clearly someone the EU "can do business with".
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 4,366
    HYUFD said:


    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant

    That would be me then....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569

    Will Theresa May be the one to do a Gorbachev on the UK? She's clearly someone the EU "can do business with".

    Last year I'd have said she was our Konstantin Chernenko.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,669

    Will Theresa May be the one to do a Gorbachev on the UK? She's clearly someone the EU "can do business with".

    Last year I'd have said she was our Konstantin Chernenko.
    Is Boris our own Boris Yeltsin?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569

    Will Theresa May be the one to do a Gorbachev on the UK? She's clearly someone the EU "can do business with".

    Last year I'd have said she was our Konstantin Chernenko.
    Is Boris our own Boris Yeltsin?
    Well Yelstin liked a drink, perhaps that's what Amber Rudd meant about Boris not being a chap you can trust to take you home at the end of an evening.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,956
    BBC leading with wedding shenanigans rather than the decent economic figures.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741

    Will Theresa May be the one to do a Gorbachev on the UK? She's clearly someone the EU "can do business with".

    Last year I'd have said she was our Konstantin Chernenko.
    Is Boris our own Boris Yeltsin?
    PM of an independent England, climbing on a tank to put down a coup from the Moggites?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,040

    If the government loses this vote then I anticipate a very awkward time for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.

    How many times can Liam Fox be disgraced?

    The man is a a sleazy (and ugly) motherf*cker!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    tlg86 said:

    BBC leading with wedding shenanigans rather than the decent economic figures.

    I'm quite willing and happy to take Meghan Markle up the aisle.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Seriously I bought a new morning suit for my friend's wedding and they've cancelled their wedding so I want to put it to good use.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 837
    edited May 15
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
    Their press are starting to wonder (again) whether the M5S/Lega deal will actually happen.

    I think it's still better than 50/50, but ask again in 24 hours.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272
    murali_s said:

    If the government loses this vote then I anticipate a very awkward time for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.

    How many times can Liam Fox be disgraced?

    The man is a a sleazy (and ugly) motherf*cker!
    Charming.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 616

    Seriously I bought a new morning suit for my friend's wedding and they've cancelled their wedding so I want to put it to good use.

    @MaxPB ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,234

    Scott_P said:
    :lol:

    I assume it will just say 'Brexit means Brexit'.
    It will be a 100 page document. Perhaps it will just repeat "Brexit means Brexit" thousands of times like in Jack Nicholson's novel in "The Shining" before she finally flips and starts wielding her axe. "Here's Theresa!".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,968

    Theresa May = Charles I

    John Bercow = Speak Lenthall

    Discuss.

    Running around like a headless chicken?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,968

    Theresa May = Charles I

    John Bercow = Speak Lenthall

    Discuss.

    Running around like a headless chicken?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,968
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    I’m sure the EU Commission would love to read them.

    There is a difficult balance here: the public airing of these documents might disadvantage the UK*, but by showing nothing to parliament, it is next to impossible for our representatives to question the executive.

    My solution would be for closed sessions with cross party representatives and a vow of secrecy. (Such secrecy would not have to be permanent - nine to twelve months would probably be sufficient.)

    * albeit the EU has been very open in publishing its documentation, which means that all journalists tend to see is the EU side of the story
    Email for you
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,129

    tlg86 said:

    BBC leading with wedding shenanigans rather than the decent economic figures.

    I'm quite willing and happy to take Meghan Markle up the aisle.
    "Would you like something to suck on for landing, sir?"
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    :lol:

    I assume it will just say 'Brexit means Brexit'.
    It will be a 100 page document. Perhaps it will just repeat "Brexit means Brexit" thousands of times like in Jack Nicholson's novel in "The Shining" before she finally flips and starts wielding her axe. "Here's Theresa!".
    You jest but the ge2017 manifesto included 18 strong and stables, a handful of not-strong stables and half a dozen smooth and orderly Brexits.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,129
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    :lol:

    I assume it will just say 'Brexit means Brexit'.
    It will be a 100 page document. Perhaps it will just repeat "Brexit means Brexit" thousands of times like in Jack Nicholson's novel in "The Shining" before she finally flips and starts wielding her axe. "Here's Theresa!".
    All Brexit and no play makes Theresa a dull girl
    All Brexit and no play makes Theresa a dull girl
    All Brexit and no play makes Theresa a dull girl
    All Brexit and no play makes Theresa a dull girl

    All Brexit and no play
    makes Theresa a dull girl
    All Brexit and no play
    makes Theresa a dull girl
    All Brexit and no play
    makes Theresa a dull girl

    :lol:
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,688

    Seriously I bought a new morning suit for my friend's wedding and they've cancelled their wedding so I want to put it to good use.

    There are no morning suits. There are morning coats, and non-matching stripy trousers.

    "It is impossible for an Englishman to get dressed for a wedding without making some other Englishman hate or despise him," as George Bernard Shaw so memorably said.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Seriously I bought a new morning suit for my friend's wedding and they've cancelled their wedding so I want to put it to good use.

    There are no morning suits. There are morning coats, and non-matching stripy trousers.

    "It is impossible for an Englishman to get dressed for a wedding without making some other Englishman hate or despise him," as George Bernard Shaw so memorably said.
    I've been buying morning suits for years, some of them had matching coats and trousers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Eagles, I sympathise. Is it lime green with purple stripes?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539
    tlg86 said:

    BBC leading with wedding shenanigans rather than the decent economic figures.

    Despite Brexit? ;)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,597

    This House is showing again.

    Maybe the next shock Daily Mail front page will be attacking MPs for defying the will of Dacre.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569

    Mr. Eagles, I sympathise. Is it lime green with purple stripes?

    No, black jacket, grey waistcoat, white shirt, grey tie, and black/grey striped trousers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Eagles, alarmingly sombre. Did the wedding have a black-and-white theme?

    Alas, I must be off. Do play nicely, children.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    edited May 15

    Mr. Eagles, alarmingly sombre. Did the wedding have a black-and-white theme?

    Alas, I must be off. Do play nicely, children.

    No, I was told not to overshadow the groom or the father of the bride.

    I did that at a recent wedding, the groom isn't a suit wearing chap wore a normal lounge suit, and well me replete with morning suit and knob cane did stand out.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    That is the ultimate aim of the globalists though I guess?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    That is the ultimate aim of the globalists though I guess?
    Is the world/aim of Star Trek.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,090

    Seriously I bought a new morning suit for my friend's wedding and they've cancelled their wedding so I want to put it to good use.

    Wear it to the Champions’ League Final?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    FF43 said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    The only rational explanation I can find for Theresa May devoting so much effort into debating options that don't exist is that she is deliberately running down the clock on displacement activity so the UK will be forced at the last minute to accept a Withdrawal Agreement, as is, and containing the NI backstop that she said no British PM could agree to.
    In reality, I suspect the Heads of Terms of the A50 deal are 80%+ there already.

    What we are seeing now is the political fights and bluster on both sides that are necessary to get it to pass, and stick. We had similar last year with EU citizens rights - where both Barnier and Verhofstadt said the UK had a long long way to go - and it turned out to be a debate between whether these should be 5 years (UK) or 10 years (EU), and was settled at 8 years.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246
    tlg86 said:

    BBC leading with wedding shenanigans rather than the decent economic figures.

    Really quite astonishing figures. Another 197k people in work over the last 3 months when, according to the ONS, there was no growth to talk of. I mean, huh? What on earth is going on? 0.1% growth in the quarter really should have been accompanied by falling employment and an increase in unemployment. We have a 0.6% increase in employment and the only way that can be reconciled with the growth figure is to assess productivity at -0.5%. Does anyone seriously believe this?

    We now have the highest percentage of those between 16 and 64 in work ever recorded. And that is despite the fact that in the 1970's or 80's many of the 16 year old's would have been in work and they are now all presumably in compulsory education.

    Oh and wages are now growing again in real terms.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539
    Any markets open on whether the father-of-the-bride will show up? :D
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246
    GIN1138 said:

    Any markets open on whether the father-of-the-bride will show up? :D

    I hope he does. Its not a day that any father should miss.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,040
    RobD said:

    murali_s said:

    If the government loses this vote then I anticipate a very awkward time for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.

    How many times can Liam Fox be disgraced?

    The man is a a sleazy (and ugly) motherf*cker!
    Charming.
    Sadly there can't be charm when sleazy gits like Liam Fox are involved.

    This man is our Trade Secretary FFS! Shocking I know!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any markets open on whether the father-of-the-bride will show up? :D

    I hope he does. Its not a day that any father should miss.
    Course he'll show up.

    He's just a typical self-absorbed American... Making it all about him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    That is the ultimate aim of the globalists though I guess?
    Is the world/aim of Star Trek.
    For the Borg, sure.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any markets open on whether the father-of-the-bride will show up? :D

    I hope he does. Its not a day that any father should miss.
    Course he'll show up.

    He's just a typical self-absorbed American... Making it all about him.
    If I were being ungenerous I’d say for a classless society the Americans display a frightful lack of class.

    But, then again, we can’t choose our families. So far I think Meghan has behaved impeccably.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 21,246

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any markets open on whether the father-of-the-bride will show up? :D

    I hope he does. Its not a day that any father should miss.
    Course he'll show up.

    He's just a typical self-absorbed American... Making it all about him.
    If I were being ungenerous I’d say for a classless society the Americans display a frightful lack of class.

    But, then again, we can’t choose our families. So far I think Meghan has behaved impeccably.
    I have not been following this and won't pretend to know what is going on. But a dad should be at the wedding unless the couple are really strongly opposed. And my vague understanding is that Meghan wants him there.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539
    Last American to be involved with the Royal's was Wallis... And we all know how that turned out. ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    That is the ultimate aim of the globalists though I guess?
    It certainly is for some - many speak of the irrelevance of nations and religions, and believe them to be anachronistic. They instead talk of being citizens of the world, valuing technocracy by the enlightened over popular democracy, maximising economic growth, and worshipping nothing except the unity of humanity, and scientific reason. Star Trek and the Federation has cropped up in more than one conversation I’ve had too.

    So, it does, taken to its logical conclusion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    That is the ultimate aim of the globalists though I guess?
    Is the world/aim of Star Trek.
    For the Borg, sure.
    For the Federation and Earth too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    BBC leading with wedding shenanigans rather than the decent economic figures.

    Really quite astonishing figures. Another 197k people in work over the last 3 months when, according to the ONS, there was no growth to talk of. I mean, huh? What on earth is going on? 0.1% growth in the quarter really should have been accompanied by falling employment and an increase in unemployment. We have a 0.6% increase in employment and the only way that can be reconciled with the growth figure is to assess productivity at -0.5%. Does anyone seriously believe this?

    We now have the highest percentage of those between 16 and 64 in work ever recorded. And that is despite the fact that in the 1970's or 80's many of the 16 year old's would have been in work and they are now all presumably in compulsory education.

    Oh and wages are now growing again in real terms.
    Wages growing in real terms is possibly the most significant political factor for the years to come.

    It depends how, where and who whoever, and whether people feel it in the pocket. But, if they do, many of those who voted for Brexit will feel vindicated.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,425
    GIN1138 said:

    Last American to be involved with the Royal's was Wallis... And we all know how that turned out. ;)

    There was Koo Stark too. Still on good terms with Andrew, I believe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any markets open on whether the father-of-the-bride will show up? :D

    I hope he does. Its not a day that any father should miss.
    Course he'll show up.

    He's just a typical self-absorbed American... Making it all about him.
    If I were being ungenerous I’d say for a classless society the Americans display a frightful lack of class.

    But, then again, we can’t choose our families. So far I think Meghan has behaved impeccably.
    I have not been following this and won't pretend to know what is going on. But a dad should be at the wedding unless the couple are really strongly opposed. And my vague understanding is that Meghan wants him there.
    I agree. I think it’d be very sad if he wasn’t.

    But, if one is not used to the limelight, it must also be terrifying. I’d be very nervous if I had 600 million eyes on me.

    It’s nerve-racking enough getting married in front of all your friends and family as it is.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    BBC leading with wedding shenanigans rather than the decent economic figures.

    Really quite astonishing figures. Another 197k people in work over the last 3 months when, according to the ONS, there was no growth to talk of. I mean, huh? What on earth is going on? 0.1% growth in the quarter really should have been accompanied by falling employment and an increase in unemployment. We have a 0.6% increase in employment and the only way that can be reconciled with the growth figure is to assess productivity at -0.5%. Does anyone seriously believe this?

    We now have the highest percentage of those between 16 and 64 in work ever recorded. And that is despite the fact that in the 1970's or 80's many of the 16 year old's would have been in work and they are now all presumably in compulsory education.

    Oh and wages are now growing again in real terms.
    You can see the effect of a later start to working in that male employment percentage in the 16-64 age group is still lower than it was for every month of the 1970s and much of the 1980s:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/mgsv/lms

    The thing I found most interesting was that there were only 96,000 redundancies in 2018q1:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/redundancies/timeseries/beao/lms

    I would have expected there to be some feed through by now of redundancies in the retail and restaurant sectors.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    Especially as most of Africa, South Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America would try and cram into North America, Western Europe, the Far East and Oceania putting huge strain on resources and housing and services. While trying to set interest rates and fiscal management for a global economy covering Somalia and Switzerland would be a nightmare
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Last American to be involved with the Royal's was Wallis... And we all know how that turned out. ;)

    There was Koo Stark too. Still on good terms with Andrew, I believe.
    There was Fergie's toe-sucker as well.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    tlg86 said:

    BBC leading with wedding shenanigans rather than the decent economic figures.

    The FT reports the decline in productivity, if that's what you had in mind, and that Sajid Javid has turned up 63 wrongly-deported Windrush migrants.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    Especially as most of Africa, South Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America would try and cram into North America, Western Europe, the Far East and Oceania putting huge strain on resources and housing and services. While trying to set interest rates and fiscal management for a global economy covering Somalia and Switzerland would be a nightmare
    I think it’s as naive an idea as global socialism, and ignores fundamentals of human nature.

    I also think a monopoly of governance and regulation is as bad an idea in the public sphere as it is in the private.

    Competition between nations and governments can be very beneficial.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,838
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
    Both Salvini and Di Maio will certainly demand an easing of Eurozone fiscal rules and tougher immigration policies and with Italy the EU's 4th largest economy and with the EU already coping with the departure of its second largest economy will have much more leeway than Tsipras and the Greeks had to get concessions
    Good for them.

    The issue Italy has is the same one Greece has. The country is deeply split on Euro membership, and it is the opposite split to the UK. Old people have massive Euro denominated savings. (Indeed, Italians' financial assets are the highest of any major Eurozone economy.)

    Leaving the Euro means cutting the real value of old people's savings and pensions. And the EU knows this. So, Italy's leverage is limited.
    It was the young and middle aged who largely voted for Di Maio and Salvini, pensioners were more likely to vote for Berlusconi or Renzi and safety first so the incoming government in Italy will not be so beholden to pensioners
    We'll see: concentrated losses and distributed gains does not a confident government make.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    edited May 15
    Pro_Rata said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
    Their press are starting to wonder (again) whether the M5S/Lega deal will actually happen.

    I think it's still better than 50/50, but ask again in 24 hours.
    The latest Italian poll has M5S unchanged from the general election on 32% but Lega Nord up 8% from 17% to 25% so it does look like a M5S and Lega Nord deal is the only show in town

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is is how bad an idea Brexit is, a Frenchman is taking piss out of us.

    Michel Barnier has mocked Theresa May over her failure to agree a post-Brexit customs model with her ministers as he said it was “unnecessary to fight” over two options which Brussels will reject anyway.

    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator reportedly told European ministers attending the General Affairs Council in Brussels that neither the Prime Minister’s preferred option of a customs partnership or the alternative "maximum facilitation" model were “realistic”.

    Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe Minister, reportedly said: “Michel Barnier said [to the GAC] the two British proposals the Cabinet is disagreeing about – none of them are realistic.

    “So he thinks it’s unnecessary to fight about it, as none of them are realistic no matter which one they choose.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/15/theresa-mays-hopes-breaking-brexit-deadlock-stall-warring-ministers/

    He will soon find he has some Italian problems on his hands too once Di Maio and Salvini take over, then he may not be quite as haughty
    I suspect Italy will be the dog that didn't bark.
    Both Salvini and Di Maio will certainly demand an easing of Eurozone fiscal rules and tougher immigration policies and with Italy the EU's 4th largest economy and with the EU already coping with the departure of its second largest economy will have much more leeway than Tsipras and the Greeks had to get concessions
    Good for them.

    The issue Italy has is the same one Greece has. The country is deeply split on Euro membership, and it is the opposite split to the UK. Old people have massive Euro denominated savings. (Indeed, Italians' financial assets are the highest of any major Eurozone economy.)

    Leaving the Euro means cutting the real value of old people's savings and pensions. And the EU knows this. So, Italy's leverage is limited.
    It was the young and middle aged who largely voted for Di Maio and Salvini, pensioners were more likely to vote for Berlusconi or Renzi and safety first so the incoming government in Italy will not be so beholden to pensioners
    We'll see: concentrated losses and distributed gains does not a confident government make.
    Though this new populist government would have a big mandate for change and its voters will expect to see it delivered
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    edited May 15

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    Especially as most of Africa, South Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America would try and cram into North America, Western Europe, the Far East and Oceania putting huge strain on resources and housing and services. While trying to set interest rates and fiscal management for a global economy covering Somalia and Switzerland would be a nightmare
    I think it’s as naive an idea as global socialism, and ignores fundamentals of human nature.

    I also think a monopoly of governance and regulation is as bad an idea in the public sphere as it is in the private.

    Competition between nations and governments can be very beneficial.
    Which is why it will always be there.

    The UN is the closest we have to a global government and it is fair to say it is not exactly a dynamic organisation
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    That is the ultimate aim of the globalists though I guess?
    Is the world/aim of Star Trek.
    For the Borg, sure.
    For the Federation and Earth too.
    As Garak observed, the Federation is insidious. The difference between the two isn't as much as people like to make out.

    I definitely prefer the Klingons and Cardassians to the Federation. Though DS9 Federation is much more interesting than TNG or VOY.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Surely if the government lose it will turn out that there never were any Brexit Subcommittee papers, indeed perhaps there never was a Brexit subcommittee?

    The government played an (almost) blinder on the Brexit analysis papers. First by vaguely referring to thorough analysis and then trying to prevent publication, encouraging cynical people - my.raised hand - to believe they didn't have any analysis and so they cobbled together some stuff using Wikipedia.

    And then it turned out they secretly DID HAVE ANALYSIS, which explained Brexit was all a big mistake, which anyone sensible knows already. But they put numbers on it. I admit I was fooled. I really thought they were pretending to have analysis but didn't really.
    Brexit is only a 'mistake' to those for whom economics is all and sovereignty and insufficient immigration control is irrelevant
    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.
    That is the ultimate aim of the globalists though I guess?
    Is the world/aim of Star Trek.
    For the Borg, sure.
    For the Federation and Earth too.
    As Garak observed, the Federation is insidious. The difference between the two isn't as much as people like to make out.

    I definitely prefer the Klingons and Cardassians to the Federation. Though DS9 Federation is much more interesting than TNG or VOY.
    If we ever advanced that far, and needed interplanetary relations, then something like an Earth federation would be perfectly feasible, even likely.

    However, I’d expect it to deal with things like agreeing rules for interplanetary trade with other planets, global space defence, and interspecies relations and I’d expect it to do it though nation states on earth.

    I wouldn’t expect it to fully replace domestic governments, or normal foreign policy relations between nation states on earth, still less globalise tax, health, education and social policy as Star Trek implies.
This discussion has been closed.