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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approach to Brexit risks alienating the enthusiastic

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited May 15 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s approach to Brexit risks alienating the enthusiastic young backers of a year ago

Will students continue to back Corbyn if he continues with his equivocation?https://t.co/n7aXmyNxIO

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272
    First :smiley:
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,597
    RobD said:

    First :smiley:

    Well done. I am really pleased for you
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 416
    edited May 15
    FPT, for FrankBooth
    NeilVW said:

    Can I just ask - does the total number of people in employment include everyone who is self-employed? I'm not sure the 'number of people in work' is a very useful measure. Be interesting to see how much change there is as a result of the £1000 trading allowance.

    Yes it does.

    Comparing the estimates for employees and self-employed people for January to March 2018 with those for a year earlier:

    - employees increased by 480,000 to 27.43 million (84.8% of all people in work)

    - self-employed people decreased by 38,000 to 4.75 million (14.7% of all people in work)


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018#employment
  • saddosaddo Posts: 446
    Can Corbyn really escape his past, or the huge contradictions in his policies for the next 4 year's? Doubt it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    I think Brexit is the kind of issue where almost nobody will care about the tactics. What will potentially shift votes is how politicians behave when it really comes to the crunch later on in the year. Until then anyone can project whatever they want onto the leaders.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 7,619
    NeilVW said:

    FPT, for FrankBooth

    NeilVW said:

    Can I just ask - does the total number of people in employment include everyone who is self-employed? I'm not sure the 'number of people in work' is a very useful measure. Be interesting to see how much change there is as a result of the £1000 trading allowance.

    Yes it does.

    Comparing the estimates for employees and self-employed people for January to March 2018 with those for a year earlier:

    - employees increased by 480,000 to 27.43 million (84.8% of all people in work)

    - self-employed people decreased by 38,000 to 4.75 million (14.7% of all people in work)


    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/may2018#employment
    The headline measure of pay, however, does not include the self-employed, for obvious reasons.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 10,474
    Indeed
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 22,363

    Labour probably appeals enough to students on other issues to retain their support, despite the differences over Brexit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272

    RobD said:

    First :smiley:

    Well done. I am really pleased for you
    Years of practice ;)
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,366
    I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.

    That moment will never come again.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,760
    Don't see where the student vote would go other than Labour.

    Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.

    Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,129
    RoyalBlue said:

    I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.

    That moment will never come again.

    You never heard of the Terran Empire?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672

    RobD said:

    First :smiley:

    Well done. I am really pleased for you

    RobD said:

    First :smiley:

    Well done. I am really pleased for you
    Rob was appearing as the first - and only - post on my screen for more than an hour. I am now using the Vanilla forum skin and can see other posts. Not that there is much point looking beyond Rob’s OP. It was brilliant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522
    RoyalBlue said:

    I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.

    That moment will never come again.

    Oh it will.

    On topic, I can see the Labour party changing direction. People said Corbyn had a fixed view on the EU but he at the least modulated his tone, to the point he says he voted Remain despite what many consider to be his personal preference, and it feels to me like many Labour figures are edging them, slowly but surely, to a remain position, by way of getting distance from the government shambles, then deciding it is all too difficult. He is now at the point, I suspect, that he is willing to ignore his personal inclinations on the EU in order to get into power, if he believes that is the path required. He has come closer than he ever thought, and the last thing he would want is to get to do none of what he wants. Would remaining help more than hinder? I'm not sure, and nor are they I suspect hence the vagueness, but the more the government flounders on the topic, and the harder it looks, the more the chance they will eventually switch, no matter the protestations now.

    And as for now, well as you point out Labour was explicitly for Leave, but it didn't matter, and the question is will it matter at some point. I don't think it will. Where are the young going to go?

    I think Brexit is the kind of issue where almost nobody will care about the tactics. What will potentially shift votes is how politicians behave when it really comes to the crunch later on in the year. Until then anyone can project whatever they want onto the leaders.

    Not often I totally agree with you, but I feel the same way. I can see sudden tactical switches coming later, and people don't mind a u-turn if they like it, so it will depend on how the public opinion progresses.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    MTimT said:

    Don't see where the student vote would go other than Labour.

    Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.

    Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.

    A 50k debt write-off is a big incentive to keep voting Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522
    MTimT said:

    Don't see where the student vote would go other than Labour.

    Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.

    Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.

    Indeed. And if they think Tory Brexit is the worst Brexit, then clearly even if they are disappointed in Labour they will go for them, since the leap to LDs doesn't seem to be on. Better a disappointing Labour government than a Tory one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,754
    "Number Cruncher Politics
    @NCPoliticsUK
    13h13 hours ago

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 43 (+1)
    LAB 40 (+1)
    LD 8 (=)
    UKIP 3 (-1)
    GRN 3 (=)

    Fieldwork 11th-13th May (Changes vs 27th-29th Apr)
    N=2,050"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522
    Foxy said:



    We could very probably achieve greater economic growth by having a single global government, single global currency and global free movement.

    That doesn’t make it a good idea.


    The British Empire didn’t do a good enough job.

    Should have colonised far more countries for longer.

    So one world government is actually a good idea, as long as it’s in Westminster?
    Oh, if we're running it all bets are off.
    The current state of Westminster suggests that it is not capable of running a bath, certainly not a world government!
    You make it sound so easy, but I'll have you know that the only reason the bath has not been run yet is due to constant interference from the backbenchers, demanding amendments on using specific sized tubs, and particular taps (British made, of course), and then the Lords slapped on a bunch of health and safety nonsense about temperature control, and all this after the Select Committee on baths produced a highly damming report suggesting a return to a metal tub in front of a fire place, as in the glorious times of empire, was somehow deficient in this modern age.

    I'll accept your apology for denigrating our political leaders gracefully now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272
    Anazina said:

    RobD said:

    First :smiley:

    Well done. I am really pleased for you

    RobD said:

    First :smiley:

    Well done. I am really pleased for you
    Rob was appearing as the first - and only - post on my screen for more than an hour. I am now using the Vanilla forum skin and can see other posts. Not that there is much point looking beyond Rob’s OP. It was brilliant.
    You're welcome :D

    (Seriously though, does the problem occur on both the main site, and in the vanillaforums webpage?)
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 416
    That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.

    ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.
  • GasmanGasman Posts: 104
    edited May 15
    If you think Corbyn is capable of running the country (never mind well) and you think the EU is a "fundamental good" then I'm sure there are all sorts of things you can be confused by.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272
    RoyalBlue said:

    I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.

    That moment will never come again.

    It was correctly described as peak PB. I'm sorry you missed it.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,366
    RobD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.

    That moment will never come again.

    It was correctly described as peak PB. I'm sorry you missed it.
    So am I. I will now diminish, and go into the West.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,760
    RobD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.

    That moment will never come again.

    It was correctly described as peak PB. I'm sorry you missed it.
    'We few, we happy few, we band of brothers'
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    Continuing the new jobs discussion FPT these are the changes, in thousands, from 2011q4 (the peak in unemployment) to 2017q4 as per the ONS for economic sectors:

    Agriculture +18
    Mining -3
    Manufacturing +152
    Utilities +43
    Construction +207
    Retail +130
    Transport +291
    Hospitality +386
    Communications +219
    Finance +14
    Property +89
    Professional services +583
    Support services +499
    Public admin -104
    Education +159
    Health +408
    Culture +137
    Other services +101
    Private households -9

    Proportionally the sectors which have had the biggest increases are professional services followed by transport, support services, hospitality, property activities and communications.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    NeilVW said:

    That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.

    ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.

    Subsamples.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,571
    AndyJS said:

    "Number Cruncher Politics
    @NCPoliticsUK
    13h13 hours ago

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 43 (+1)
    LAB 40 (+1)
    LD 8 (=)
    UKIP 3 (-1)
    GRN 3 (=)

    Fieldwork 11th-13th May (Changes vs 27th-29th Apr)
    N=2,050"

    Rising fuel prices not having an effect yet.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672

    NeilVW said:

    That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.

    ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.

    Subsamples.
    Random number generators. Only a fool affords any credence to midterm polls, I would have thought the past few years have taught us that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 32,522
    Anazina said:

    NeilVW said:

    That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.

    ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.

    Subsamples.
    Random number generators. Only a fool affords any credence to midterm polls, I would have thought the past few years have taught us that.
    I never learn anything, it makes things more exciting.

    Night all.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    RobD said:

    Anazina said:

    RobD said:

    First :smiley:

    Well done. I am really pleased for you

    RobD said:

    First :smiley:

    Well done. I am really pleased for you
    Rob was appearing as the first - and only - post on my screen for more than an hour. I am now using the Vanilla forum skin and can see other posts. Not that there is much point looking beyond Rob’s OP. It was brilliant.
    You're welcome :D

    (Seriously though, does the problem occur on both the main site, and in the vanillaforums webpage?)
    :)

    To answer your question, no. It only occurs on the main page - when you use the vanilla skin it is fine, and the act of doing so bumps the normal page into life too. It’s a very odd fault.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 416

    NeilVW said:

    That recent run of YouGovs with Con ahead among the C2DEs (in three of the last four surveys) may have been a bit of a fluke.

    ICM give Lab a lead of five points in this group, and BMG seven points.

    Subsamples.
    Reasonably chunky ones though, at 600+ in the case of ICM for instance.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,754

    AndyJS said:

    "Number Cruncher Politics
    @NCPoliticsUK
    13h13 hours ago

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 43 (+1)
    LAB 40 (+1)
    LD 8 (=)
    UKIP 3 (-1)
    GRN 3 (=)

    Fieldwork 11th-13th May (Changes vs 27th-29th Apr)
    N=2,050"

    Rising fuel prices not having an effect yet.
    Yes, it is interesting that those haven't had an effect.

    I don't know whether this was reported earlier, but there's also a BMG poll out:

    "Number Cruncher Politics
    @ncpoliticsuk
    12h12 hours ago

    BMG/Independent:

    CON 39 (=)
    LAB 39 (+1)
    LD 10 (-1)
    UKIP 4 (+1)
    GRN 3 (-1)
    SNP 4 (=)

    1st-4th May (Changes vs 10th-13th Apr)
    N=1,441"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741
    Anazina said:

    Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.
    Not only is it part of the UK, it’s what defines the UK. If it left we’d presumably revert to being the Kingdom of Great Britain.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,366

    Anazina said:

    Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.
    Not only is it part of the UK, it’s what defines the UK. If it left we’d presumably revert to being the Kingdom of Great Britain.
    Nah, let’s go for Kingdom of England. The Scottish ‘Parliament’ will make a great county council chamber.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,754
    "Windrush: Sixty-three people may have been wrongly removed"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44131136
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    Corbyn's working class supporters who are key voters in a number of industrial seats voted for Brexit and are also more likely to live in Midlands marginals than younger graduate Remainers in safe inner city seats. Under FPTP therefore Corbyn will not abandon the former for the latter
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    They were told that the morning after Brexit, yet the SNP lost almost half their seats at the 2017 general election and the DUP has won most seats in both post Brexit NI elections
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,669
    AndyJS said:

    "Windrush: Sixty-three people may have been wrongly removed"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44131136

    and yet Amber Rudd couldn't find one?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,751
    NeilVW said:


    I can't work out from the link what they do with people who are both employed and self-employed. I have a day job and in the evenings and weekends I have a translation business (in between other stuff like real life, obviously). Do they double-count, or count whatever takes longest/earns nmost, or what?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,754
    Are the 63 wrongly deported Windrush migrants going to be given the option to return to the UK if they want to? I hope so.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 416
    edited May 15
    I can't work out from the link what they do with people who are both employed and self-employed. I have a day job and in the evenings and weekends I have a translation business (in between other stuff like real life, obviously). Do they double-count, or count whatever takes longest/earns nmost, or what?

    ===== (blockquote fail, apologies)

    Good question. They don’t double-count in the headline employment total, but the Labour Force Survey does separately collect the number of people with second jobs (recently put at a little over 1.1 million). I would imagine that whichever of the two (employment or self-employment) is classed by the respondent as their ‘main’ job would then count that person in the employed or self-employed total respectively. It might conceivably be tricky to answer in some circumstances, I guess.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/reconciliationofestimatesofjobs/march2018#reconciliation
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 205
    Rosie McKenna, poor lamb, how naive can you possibly get?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,154
    Anazina said:

    Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.
    To be clear - they don't choose to be citizens of the Republic they are citizens of Ireland by being born on the island of Ireland or to parents who were.

    She may or may not be happy with it but Arlene Foster is regarded as an Irish citizen by the Republic under its constitution.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 33,272
    brendan16 said:

    Anazina said:

    Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.
    To be clear - they don't choose to be citizens of the Republic they are citizens of Ireland by being born on the island of Ireland or to parents who were.

    She may or may not be happy with it but Arlene Foster is regarded as an Irish citizen by the Republic under its constitution.
    Does it? It says they have the right, not that they are.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,802
    MTimT said:

    Don't see where the student vote would go other than Labour.

    Every political party is a big tent, and very few can believe in the entire manifesto. So the question in analyzing whether the student vote will leave Labour or not is really a question about how high up on the priority list students place policy on Brexit versus all the student-specific policies and all the other left-right policy issues.

    Can't be bothered to number crunch as every bone in my body says upwards of 90% of the students stay where they are politically regardless of what Labour do and say about Brexit.

    Surely the likeliest outcome would be they won't turnout. This won't matter much in London but elsewhere ... Canterbury for example.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,667
    North Korea’s first countermove in the nuclea talks:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910

    They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,838
    Sad to see Tom Wolfe has passed: I loved Bonfire of the Vanities and A Man in Full, as well his earlier non-fiction.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,667
    New Yorker article has some more detail on what the US demand on Kim might be... which is possibly behind NK’s cold feet:
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/just-how-fragile-is-trumps-north-korea-diplomacy
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,597
    HYUFD said:

    They were told that the morning after Brexit, yet the SNP lost almost half their seats at the 2017 general election and the DUP has won most seats in both post Brexit NI elections
    Maths? SNP won 56 seats at GE2015 - went down to 35 at GE2018.

    DUP secured just 36% of vote in Northern Ireland at GE17
  • MJWMJW Posts: 421
    It's a real problem for Corbyn - not because such voters will defect en masse but because a drop off of enthusiasm among those voters would hand the Tories a majority because Brexit/Jez has pushed more culturally conservative voters into the Tory camp. In 2017, Labour benefited from an anti-Tory/Brexit backlash that counteracted that - however Corbyn may be repeating the New Labour/Ed M mistake in reverse. Then, it was assumed the activist protest-loving left would vote Labour however much they griped, so they were largely ignored in favour of the key centre-ground voters (Ed M did try and offer them some red meat, but always had to ping back with a pitch the other way). They did go elsewhere and voted Lib Dem in 2010, Green, SNP, Plaid etc or failed to turn up in 2015. Over those years I lost count of the amount of times I tried to convince people they had to vote Labour to turf out the Tories, but was told meh. The same could well happen with a portion of centre-left pro-EU voters, who are Corbyn-sceptic to start with and may get so fed up with him that they decide to ditch any tactical considerations and shit to the Lib Dems, stay at home or go for niche parties to register their anger.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,667
    edited May 16
    MJW said:

    It's a real problem for Corbyn - not because such voters will defect en masse but because a drop off of enthusiasm among those voters would hand the Tories a majority because Brexit/Jez has pushed more culturally conservative voters into the Tory camp. In 2017, Labour benefited from an anti-Tory/Brexit backlash that counteracted that - however Corbyn may be repeating the New Labour/Ed M mistake in reverse. Then, it was assumed the activist protest-loving left would vote Labour however much they griped, so they were largely ignored in favour of the key centre-ground voters (Ed M did try and offer them some red meat, but always had to ping back with a pitch the other way). They did go elsewhere and voted Lib Dem in 2010, Green, SNP, Plaid etc or failed to turn up in 2015. Over those years I lost count of the amount of times I tried to convince people they had to vote Labour to turf out the Tories, but was told meh. The same could well happen with a portion of centre-left pro-EU voters, who are Corbyn-sceptic to start with and may get so fed up with him that they decide to ditch any tactical considerations and shit to the Lib Dems, stay at home or go for niche parties to register their anger.

    Barring the unlikely event of May calling a snap election, such calculations are moot for now. It’s just too long until the next election.

    Btw, is “shit to the Lib Dems” a typo ?
    :smile:
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,766
    Nigelb said:

    North Korea’s first countermove in the nuclea talks:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910

    They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?

    Not going to let the US do a Libya on them. Trump is terrifying but so far he hasn't done anything remotely as strategically disastrous as Obama, and particularly Hillary Clinton, did with Libya.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    edited May 16

    Nigelb said:

    North Korea’s first countermove in the nuclea talks:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910

    They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?

    Not going to let the US do a Libya on them. Trump is terrifying but so far he hasn't done anything remotely as strategically disastrous as Obama, and particularly Hillary Clinton, did with Libya.
    Iran is the latest example of Trump tearing up a deal America made, this time with another country that had been developing nuclear weapons. Those applauding Trump's actions must realise he limits America's future influence. To take a foorball example, the reason clubs compensate sacked managers is not because they feel sorry for them but in order to recruit the next manager.

    The issue of denuclearisation was also always going to be tricky because what some commentators miss is that, as NK and China use the word, it also means excluding the US Navy from the region -- because America will not confirm or deny which vessels carry nuclear weapons.

    On strategic disasters, the new Iranian sanctions will surely attract Russia and China into the gap left by America and Europe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,667
    Mueller is an interesting guy:
    https://www.wired.com/story/robert-mueller-vietnam/

    If Trump is gettable, Mueller will get him.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425

    Nigelb said:

    North Korea’s first countermove in the nuclea talks:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44134910

    They are clearly not going to roll over straight away, but is this just an opening gambit, or a sign that they won’t play ball at all ?

    Not going to let the US do a Libya on them. Trump is terrifying but so far he hasn't done anything remotely as strategically disastrous as Obama, and particularly Hillary Clinton, did with Libya.
    If Iran gets nuclear weapons then that's certainly in the ballpark of the disaster in Libya, and arguably worse since more likely to lead to a regional war.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,392
    Anazina said:

    Certainly that is true of NI, if one considers it part of the UK. De jure it is, but it has an odd status, given its citizens can choose instead to be citizens of the Republic.
    NI is effectively a larger version of Gibraltar with far worse weather
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,392
    Nigelb said:

    Mueller is an interesting guy:
    https://www.wired.com/story/robert-mueller-vietnam/

    If Trump is gettable, Mueller will get him.

    Mueller is the real life Harry Bosch
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    On topic, no. They have already decided they love Corbyn and will go through whatever mental contortions are necessary to explain away what he has, or has, not done on Brexit.

    Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    edited May 16
    Still he's not as rubbish as Theresa May when it comes to Brexit.

    David Davis has told the prime minister that her favoured plan for a customs partnership with the EU could be illegal under international trade law, The Times has learnt.

    The Brexit secretary, who backed the Leave campaign, is understood to have raised the threat of a legal challenge in a letter to Theresa May setting out his opposition to the proposal.

    He has the backing of other Brexit-supporting cabinet ministers, who warned that if the government backed the partnership plan now it would be too late to reverse the policy if significant legal obstacles emerged. “In that scenario you’d end up staying in the customs union because you’d have no other choice,” a senior source said.

    The attorney-general’s office has been asked to provide an urgent legal opinion before the cabinet makes its final decision. The advice will be provided directly to Mrs May and not considered by the cabinet sub-committee set up last week to examine the proposal’s merits. This has alarmed opponents of the customs partnership plan.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-warned-her-brexit-customs-plan-might-not-be-legal-pwktqsvvj

    I mean nothing bad ever happened when an Attorney-General felt pressurised to give a PM the legal opinion the PM wanted.

    #PoundShopBlair
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921
    RoyalBlue said:

    I can’t believe I missed in real time Casino Royale’s post about what competencies would be retained by national governments in the United Federation of Planets.

    That moment will never come again.


    I thank you.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,980

    AndyJS said:

    "Windrush: Sixty-three people may have been wrongly removed"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44131136

    and yet Amber Rudd couldn't find one?
    Amber Rudd was doing what she was told and still following Theresa May's Windrush policy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575

    On topic, no. They have already decided they love Corbyn and will go through whatever mental contortions are necessary to explain away what he has, or has, not done on Brexit.

    Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.

    Or they’ll recognise that, no matter the importance of Brexit, there are shorter-term issues as well, and this Government is mishandling them. Housing, for example.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,384
    edited May 16

    #PoundShopBlair

    Quite a promotion from your usual #PoundShopBrown .....do you see her fighting 3 GEs?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,384

    On topic, no. They have already decided they love Corbyn and will go through whatever mental contortions are necessary to explain away what he has, or has, not done on Brexit.

    Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.

    Housing, for example.
    What ever happened to the chap who was going to fix that?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425
    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425

    #PoundShopBlair

    Quite a promotion from your usual #PoubdShopBrown .....do you see her fighting 3 GEs?
    3 GEs with 3 hung parliaments would be truly impressive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569

    #PoundShopBlair

    Quite a promotion from your usual #PoundShopBrown .....do you see her fighting 3 GEs?
    No, she'll fight one and be remembered as the Tory leader that lost David Cameron's majority to a Russia defending, IRA condoning Trot.

    The shame.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Good morning, everyone.

    An interesting thought. If true, cui bono? I suspect the young voters might just stay at home. The obvious alternative would be the Lib Dems, although tuition fees might make them less than palatable.

    That said, the willingness of much of the youth to embrace socialism is indicative of an incapacity to pay attention to recent history, so maybe they will go for the yellows.

    Upon reading numerous posts below, I sought out Mr. Royale's post. It's a very interesting discussion point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,447
    rkrkrk said:

    #PoundShopBlair

    Quite a promotion from your usual #PoubdShopBrown .....do you see her fighting 3 GEs?
    3 GEs with 3 hung parliaments would be truly impressive.
    Juncker managed 4 in Luxembourg, although given the scandal that forced his resignation maybe control of the House wasn't as important to him as control of the security apparatus (which he claimed he wasn't controlling...)

    Admittedly even in her worst moments May is no Juncker.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,425
    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.

    It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,630
    Most people just want the Govt to get on with Brexit and STFU with all the sniping.
    I really see politicians now in a much worse light than I ever have done before.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.

    It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.
    I think it's >90% next election is after March 2019.
    But no idea how long this implementation period will last.

    At some point the Tories will have a policy, and then I expect Labour to offer something closer to softer Brexit than that.

    The Lib Dems have set their stall out early and it doesn't seem to have helped them much.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575

    On topic, no. They have already decided they love Corbyn and will go through whatever mental contortions are necessary to explain away what he has, or has, not done on Brexit.

    Or they will just ignore it and blame the Tories instead.

    Housing, for example.
    What ever happened to the chap who was going to fix that?
    LOL
    Gone to the oversee what appears to be the cesspit of racism that is Mrs May’s immigration policy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,447
    edited May 16
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.

    It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.
    Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.

    I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.

    Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.

    Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.

    John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.

    It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.
    Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.

    I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.

    Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.

    Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
    Most Conservative ministers, including the Prime Minister and her immediate predecessor, were Remainers, weren't they? The EU has long been a Conservative project and noisy Leavers on the backbenches, let alone "look squirrel" shouts at Labour, should not blind us to that fact. You say the Conservatives won't want to go back in but most of them don't want to come out, which is why various BINO options are being explored.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 11,447
    edited May 16

    ydoethur said:



    Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.

    I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.

    Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.

    Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.

    Most Conservative ministers, including the Prime Minister and her immediate predecessor, were Remainers, weren't they? The EU has long been a Conservative project and noisy Leavers on the backbenches, let alone "look squirrel" shouts at Labour, should not blind us to that fact. You say the Conservatives won't want to go back in but most of them don't want to come out, which is why various BINO options are being explored.
    Yes, I would agree they don't want to come out, but having come out I think they will be considerably more reluctant to even consider going back in. Politically I don't think they will even have that option given their voter base.

    Labour however will I think on current evidence have a groundswell of support for Returning.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,630

    Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.

    John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.

    Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,795
    Two years later, over a year since A50 was triggered. Pathetic.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44127955
    Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,921

    Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.

    John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.

    Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...
    Must be why he posed by a Karl Marx workers of the world unite poster a couple of weeks ago then.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824

    Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.

    John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.

    Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...
    The main lesson punters learned at the last election, even if it passed CCHQ by, was that the reds under the beds scares don't work.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611

    Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.

    John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.

    Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...
    Meanwhile on the other side of the fence, leading Conservatives revel in pandering to xenophobia. You’d think they might want to tone that down too.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,795
    Almost every policy Trump espouses runs contrary to UK interests. No US president in living memory has been so anti-British. It’s amazing what leeway white skin and a Churchill bust can secure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,425
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.

    It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.
    Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.

    I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.

    Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.

    Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
    I think that there will be a powerful Rejoin movement in time, at least as politically divisive as the Eurosceptics have been these last decades.

    The Conservatives too have a difficult cluster of horses to ride, including pro EU business types, Hannanite Antlantacist free traders and socially conservative backwoodsmen in the Shires as well as WWC voters in the old coalfields who are quite Socialist economically.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 6,667
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.

    It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.
    Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.

    I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.

    Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe...
    Though I share your Utilitarianish view of the EU, I think there's perhaps a bit more to it than that. If we had a more confident government negotiating from the outset and making the case for a positive post Brexit settlement, it's quite conceivable that there would have been far fewer irreconcilables.
    As it is, no one has the least idea of what we're going to be landed with - least of all the government, apparently. And the Leave message still seems to be 'we won, suck it up'.
    Hardly surprising that those who voted to remain are a bit pissed off.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,630

    Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.

    John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.

    Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...
    Meanwhile on the other side of the fence, leading Conservatives revel in pandering to xenophobia. You’d think they might want to tone that down too.
    not really, there were lots of xenophobes out there esp in the WWC
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,179
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.

    It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.
    Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.

    I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.

    Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.

    Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
    I think that there will be a powerful Rejoin movement in time, at least as politically divisive as the Eurosceptics have been these last decades.

    The Conservatives too have a difficult cluster of horses to ride, including pro EU business types, Hannanite Antlantacist free traders and socially conservative backwoodsmen in the Shires as well as WWC voters in the old coalfields who are quite Socialist economically.
    I think the rejoin threshold will be too much to stomach for many who voted Remain when it was the status quo option - Euro, EU Army etc...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,630

    Jeremy Corbyn seems in danger of believing his own hype. For a few hundred thousand, he is the new JC. But to be elected he needs the votes of millions, and those millions are going to be judging him in considerable part on what he offers them. The public in general have never thought much of him but many were prepared to overlook that for the right retail offer. If he doesn’t have that, he’s just got his acolytes, and that won’t be anything like enough.

    John McDonnell seems to grasp what is needed.

    Yup, a lot more covering up about who they really are...
    The main lesson punters learned at the last election, even if it passed CCHQ by, was that the reds under the beds scares don't work.
    Yes they need to be clear the reds are IN their beds , not under ;)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425


    Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.

    What is a serious opposition? It should like?

    To my mind the Labour opposition has forced the Tories (admittedly in a weak position post GE) into a number of u-turns on universal credit, Brexit bill, NHS privatisations, capping housing benefit for social housing and supported accommodation, NIC for self-employed etc.

    Labour's parliamentary tactics in getting Brexit information out have been quite clever also I think.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575

    Almost every policy Trump espouses runs contrary to UK interests. No US president in living memory has been so anti-British. It’s amazing what leeway white skin and a Churchill bust can secure.

    White skin?
    Seriously though, why is anyone surprised. Trump’s made it clear that as far as he’s concerned it’s America first, other people’s interests twenty-fifth. And that’s corporate America first, of course!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,179
    rkrkrk said:


    Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.

    What is a serious opposition? It should like?

    To my mind the Labour opposition has forced the Tories (admittedly in a weak position post GE) into a number of u-turns on universal credit, Brexit bill, NHS privatisations, capping housing benefit for social housing and supported accommodation, NIC for self-employed etc.

    Labour's parliamentary tactics in getting Brexit information out have been quite clever also I think.
    Almost all of those issues you cite have been prevented by cooler heads in the Tory party...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 6,980
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic - not clear where these voters would go.
    A more left-wing Lib Dem party might have a chance of picking them up?

    I disagree with Mike that Corbyn doesn't change his mind - this has already happened on the customs union - and it is certainly possible he might go further. He certainly isn't making clear, unambiguous statements like Theresa May - he 's leaving wriggle room.

    Waiting until the govt has a plan on Brexit still seems a good strategy to me.

    It all depends on whether the next election takes place before or after Brexit. Cornyn policy becomes moot if the latter.
    Not necessarily if there continues to be a big move to go back in.

    I will confess I've been surprised at the strength of feeling among some of my fellow Remainers. I thought frankly that in this country the EU was tolerated as a necessary but imperfect organisation in default of something better (y'know, something democratic, efficient, fair, run with integrity and ability rather than failed drunkards and transparent in its dealings) by most of us. I thought therefore that most people after we had voted out would accept the result.

    Turns out I was projecting my rather cold-eyed Utilitarian view of the EU onto others, and there really are people out there who actually do have an almost pathological Heath-style love for it despite all its very many shortcomings (which some of them seem absolutely blind to). So I think except in the highly unlikely event that Theresa May manages to make a success of these negotiations there will continue to be divisions and splits over Europe.

    Ironically however that may hurt Labour more. The Conservatives will surely not be interested in going back in, and most of their voters certainly won't (I know there are exceptions). Labour however have the odd situation where their voters really do seem to be desperate to turn back the clock and their leadership are resisting. In such circumstances coming up with a workable policy on Europe may actually be crucial for Labour. It would be a peerless irony if Labour were the party to split over Brexit.
    I have the same issue with Westminster. Turns out I f don't think the United Kingdom should be dissolved simply because of that self serving institution and the shower that makes up the government and opposition. At least Brussels exercises a modicum of competence.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    Mortimer said:

    rkrkrk said:


    Having no serious opposition lets the Tories off the hook, but is hugely damaging to the country.

    What is a serious opposition? It should like?

    To my mind the Labour opposition has forced the Tories (admittedly in a weak position post GE) into a number of u-turns on universal credit, Brexit bill, NHS privatisations, capping housing benefit for social housing and supported accommodation, NIC for self-employed etc.

    Labour's parliamentary tactics in getting Brexit information out have been quite clever also I think.
    Almost all of those issues you cite have been prevented by cooler heads in the Tory party...
    LOL
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711

    HYUFD said:

    They were told that the morning after Brexit, yet the SNP lost almost half their seats at the 2017 general election and the DUP has won most seats in both post Brexit NI elections
    Maths? SNP won 56 seats at GE2015 - went down to 35 at GE2018.

    DUP secured just 36% of vote in Northern Ireland at GE17
    So the SNP lost almost half their seats yes and under FPTP the DUP won a majority of seats at Westminster in 2017 and most seats in the NI Assembly
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    Morning all,

    Looks like the N Korea situation is going well. They don't want to give up nukes. Who would have thought it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,384

    Almost every policy Trump espouses runs contrary to UK interests. No US president in living memory has been so anti-British. It’s amazing what leeway white skin and a Churchill bust can secure.

    Have the Mexicans paid for the wall yet?

This discussion has been closed.