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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I think it will be Gove & Sajid in a CON members’ ballot n

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited May 16 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I think it will be Gove & Sajid in a CON members’ ballot not Moggsy or BoJo

Ever since last June when Theresa May lost the Conservative Party its majority there has always been a chance of a leadership contest. We have had repeated stories about MPs being ready to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee seeking a confidence vote. The fact that this has not materialised so far doesn’t mean it is not going to happen.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,740
    I hope you're right about Gove. He is good at detail, and gets on with the job, whereas BoJo and DD and Mogg all have various substantial flaws of different types.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    I can understand why Boris was once popular among the grass roots but it never made any sense to me his support in the PCP. MPs must be the first people to see how he is all show and no substance. JRM must have appeal to 20% of the country that is already deep blue, so also a foolish choice.

    Gove is an interesting one and I admire him.for his fresh thinking. However, he seems a bit like a Tory Ed Miliband in his awkwardness prevents his credibility as a leader. Mordaunt or Raab would be much better choices to represent the Leavers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451
    nunuone said:
    Who are the 1% who think C4 news is strongly biased to the right wing?!?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    MaxPB said:

    nunuone said:
    Who are the 1% who think C4 news is strongly biased to the right wing?!?
    The current shadow cabinet?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,120
    edited May 16
    MaxPB said:

    nunuone said:
    Who are the 1% who think C4 news is strongly biased to the right wing?!?
    The same kind of people who are anti-EU and vote Lib Dem?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    On Gove, I'd like to hear what backbenchers think about his time at Education -- how many constituents complained that young Charlotte didn't get into the right school because he'd made a mess of school places. If that mainly affected Labour seats then he might get away with it but it plays to Gove's reputation as a better thinker than manager. Then there are the p'd off Cameroons and Borisites: have they forgiven him for stabbing their leader in the back?

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,379
    Surely no one would trust Gove?

    We all know there is a lot of backstabbing in politics but Gove's record consists mainly of stabbing people in the front, as David Cameron, Boris Johnson and British fishermen know to their cost.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,120
    The 11% who think RT is political neutral...what total morons think that?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,120
    edited May 16
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Francis

    I spend a lot of time in the US – I have family and clients out there. I'm not saying the problem is universal, I agree with you that it is polarised to a ridiculous degree. I loathe Atlanta as a city – it is possibly the least human city I have ever visited – but it has a tremendous food scene that puts many British cities to shame. Those posted there on business can overcome the ordeal by booking at The Optimist, no michelin star, but nevertheless quite probably one of the best seafood restaurants in the States.

    Hot-lanta....that ring road "around" Atlanta is one of the worst driving experiences ever. M25 all is forgiven.

    I spend at least a month a year in the US for the past 20 years, and have only seen the food / beer side of things improve year on year. But then I am not that price sensitive.

    Places like Portland have fantastic food / beer scene.
    The bars have improved massively in many places, as have the restaurants in recent years, but remain almost universally terrible outside the major coastal cities.
    That's a bit like saying places like Stoke have crap bars and restaurants. Large swaves of the UK are now dominated by crap chain restaurants and bars, cough cough Nandos....Also see the massive expansion of Dominos and KFC across the UK in the past 10 years.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824

    The 11% who think RT is political neutral...what total morons think that?

    Corbyn's tweet from 2011 still seems resonant today. I gather there may be an extra place going begging in the chapel, so fingers crossed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Boris and JRM are my big lays in this market.

    Gove I think has pissed off too many people to win but I’ve eventually gone green on him.

    Still think it could be Javid v Hunt though.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539
    Agree with Javid (Javid has got to survive the Home Office...) But don't think it will be Gove.

    Maybe Javid and McVey? Or Javid and Hunt?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    Rees and Johnson are utter plonkers – they have no chance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,396
    The pair of them should get behind May, both as bad as each other.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,305

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Francis

    I spend a lot of time in the US – I have family and clients out there. I'm not saying the problem is universal, I agree with you that it is polarised to a ridiculous degree. I loathe Atlanta as a city – it is possibly the least human city I have ever visited – but it has a tremendous food scene that puts many British cities to shame. Those posted there on business can overcome the ordeal by booking at The Optimist, no michelin star, but nevertheless quite probably one of the best seafood restaurants in the States.

    Hot-lanta....that ring road "around" Atlanta is one of the worst driving experiences ever. M25 all is forgiven.

    I spend at least a month a year in the US for the past 20 years, and have only seen the food / beer side of things improve year on year. But then I am not that price sensitive.

    Places like Portland have fantastic food / beer scene.
    The bars have improved massively in many places, as have the restaurants in recent years, but remain almost universally terrible outside the major coastal cities.
    That's a bit like saying places like Stoke have crap bars and restaurants. Large swaves of the UK are now dominated by crap chain restaurants and bars, cough cough Nandos....Also see the massive expansion of Dominos and KFC across the UK in the past 10 years.
    The people have voted - with their feet - and they are voting for Nandos, Dominos and KFC.

    Wake up and smell the coffee - at Costa and Starbucks.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 11,539
    Pulpstar said:

    The pair of them should get behind May, both as bad as each other.
    The difference is that it's exceedingly unlikely Morgan will hold LEAVE voting Loughborough at the next election where-as JRM has got a seat for life.
  • CharlesvCharlesv Posts: 1
    I agree with that analysis about Mogg and BoJo: they are just to divisive for the parliamentary party to put them forward.

    Both Javid and Gove have the ability to think on their feet under the pressure of media interview and sound intelligent. I think that will factor heavily into the tory thinking given what happened in the last campaign.

    That said, Gove is toxic to a large part of the electorate and may not have had enough time in his current role to erase then memory of his time as education secretary. I think it would be a big risk for him to be put forward. I therefore think that it could well be Hunt and Javid.

    My guess is that ultimately they will not trust the membership to make the choice and Javid will end up being the chosen one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,396

    Boris and JRM are my big lays in this market.

    Gove I think has pissed off too many people to win but I’ve eventually gone green on him.

    Still think it could be Javid v Hunt though.

    Are you playing it next Pm or next Tory leader ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 67,569
    Pulpstar said:

    Boris and JRM are my big lays in this market.

    Gove I think has pissed off too many people to win but I’ve eventually gone green on him.

    Still think it could be Javid v Hunt though.

    Are you playing it next Pm or next Tory leader ?
    Both.

    Other big lays in the former market include Corbyn and Miliband D.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    A rare moment of honesty from a member of our political class.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,396
    It is very early for Javid in the home office, but his spell at housing was a big improvement from his lacklustre performance at business.
    Nevertheless it is the toughest brief in the cabinet, it is testament to May's survival instincts that she survivied so long there.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Pulpstar, Honorius survived a long time. Didn't make him a good leader.

    FPT: that must be the first time Mogg has been described as being on the left :p
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    Anazina said:

    A rare moment of honesty from a member of our political class.
    "I'm only a Cabinet minister!".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    Anazina said:

    Rees and Johnson are utter plonkers – they have no chance.

    Have you been following politics in last few years? :lol:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451
    I'd vote for Javid over Gove, even though Javid was nominally a remainer.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672

    Anazina said:

    Rees and Johnson are utter plonkers – they have no chance.

    Have you been following politics in last few years? :lol:
    Ha! Fair point :)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,305
    edited May 16
    At the next leadership election will Conservative members be voting for someone who is a bold, visionary leader (Johnson, Gove or Rees) or will they be voting for a steady as she goes leader (Javid, Hunt, Anon)? They really need to have a choice between one type or the other.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,885
    MaxPB said:

    I'd vote for Javid over Gove, even though Javid was nominally a remainer.

    Economist claims he only said 'Remain' to keep in with Cameron. Which implies he thought Remain would win, or at the very least Cameron wouldn't have to resign.

    He's a big fan of Ayn Rand.

    So Rand vs Marx could be the GE 2022 election in summary!!!!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,470
    GIN1138 said:

    Agree with Javid (Javid has got to survive the Home Office...) But don't think it will be Gove.

    Maybe Javid and McVey? Or Javid and Hunt?

    Javid v McVey, with Esther winning 60-40 with the membership.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,575

    At the next leadership election will Conservative members be voting for someone who is a bold, visionary leader (Johnson, Gove or Rees) or will they be voting for a steady as she goes leader (Javid, Hunt, Anon)? They really need to have a choice between one type or the other.

    Johnson ‘bold, visionary”! What have you been smoking?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741

    GIN1138 said:

    Agree with Javid (Javid has got to survive the Home Office...) But don't think it will be Gove.

    Maybe Javid and McVey? Or Javid and Hunt?

    Javid v McVey, with Esther winning 60-40 with the membership.
    Is McVey your replacement for Priti Patel?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 44,281
    Mr. Rentool, nay, Javid versus Mordaunt. It would be in the best interest of the nation*.

    *And also my wallet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,470

    GIN1138 said:

    Agree with Javid (Javid has got to survive the Home Office...) But don't think it will be Gove.

    Maybe Javid and McVey? Or Javid and Hunt?

    Javid v McVey, with Esther winning 60-40 with the membership.
    Is McVey your replacement for Priti Patel?
    So you've noticed then!

    I cast around for another swivel-eyed loon, and my gaze alighted on Esther...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,611
    This line-up would make me a very happy man.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,032
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The pair of them should get behind May, both as bad as each other.
    The difference is that it's exceedingly unlikely Morgan will hold LEAVE voting Loughborough at the next election where-as JRM has got a seat for life.
    In 2017 when, you'll remember, Labour did better than expected Leave voting Loughborough still gave Nikki Morgan an 8% (>4200) majority over the Labour candidate. If you think that makes it 'exceedingly unlikely' that she will hold the seat, what odds will you give me?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 20,741

    GIN1138 said:

    Agree with Javid (Javid has got to survive the Home Office...) But don't think it will be Gove.

    Maybe Javid and McVey? Or Javid and Hunt?

    Javid v McVey, with Esther winning 60-40 with the membership.
    Is McVey your replacement for Priti Patel?
    So you've noticed then!

    I cast around for another swivel-eyed loon, and my gaze alighted on Esther...
    McVey strikes me as more of a latter-day Edwina Currie than a swivel-eyed loon.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    JC is making a speech by running all his questions together.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    Tractor stats don't matter -- voters know if they have a job or not.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,754
    edited May 16
    Trump's approval rating with registered voters climbs to 44.4%, compared to the 46.1% he got at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    No, May has already expressed her desire to remain in the Customs Union, as I understand it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985
    Anazina said:

    No, May has already expressed her desire to remain in the Customs Union, as I understand it.
    In 'a' customs union
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,154
    MaxPB said:

    nunuone said:
    Who are the 1% who think C4 news is strongly biased to the right wing?!?
    Momentum supporters?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 549

    MaxPB said:

    I'd vote for Javid over Gove, even though Javid was nominally a remainer.

    Economist claims he only said 'Remain' to keep in with Cameron. Which implies he thought Remain would win, or at the very least Cameron wouldn't have to resign.

    He's a big fan of Ayn Rand.

    So Rand vs Marx could be the GE 2022 election in summary!!!!
    Or, if Gove were to become leader, Mao vs Marx.

    What a time to be alive.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,824
    Good news on cladding but just the merest suspicion the question was planted.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985

    Good news on cladding but just the merest suspicion the question was planted.

    And rail nationisation of East Coast coming along after PMQ 's I believe

    Politics hey
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,305

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Francis

    I spend a lot of time in the US – I have family and clients out there. I'm not saying the problem is universal, I agree with you that it is polarised to a ridiculous degree. I loathe Atlanta as a city – it is possibly the least human city I have ever visited – but it has a tremendous food scene that puts many British cities to shame. Those posted there on business can overcome the ordeal by booking at The Optimist, no michelin star, but nevertheless quite probably one of the best seafood restaurants in the States.

    Hot-lanta....that ring road "around" Atlanta is one of the worst driving experiences ever. M25 all is forgiven.

    I spend at least a month a year in the US for the past 20 years, and have only seen the food / beer side of things improve year on year. But then I am not that price sensitive.

    Places like Portland have fantastic food / beer scene.
    The bars have improved massively in many places, as have the restaurants in recent years, but remain almost universally terrible outside the major coastal cities.
    That's a bit like saying places like Stoke have crap bars and restaurants. Large swaves of the UK are now dominated by crap chain restaurants and bars, cough cough Nandos....Also see the massive expansion of Dominos and KFC across the UK in the past 10 years.
    The people have voted - with their feet - and they are voting for Nandos, Dominos and KFC.

    Wake up and smell the coffee - at Costa and Starbucks.

    Customers of Nandos, Dominos and KFC are the Conservative Brexit voters nowadays.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 699

    Good news on cladding but just the merest suspicion the question was planted.

    And rail nationisation of East Coast coming along after PMQ 's I believe

    Politics hey
    Nationalised again?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985

    Good news on cladding but just the merest suspicion the question was planted.

    And rail nationisation of East Coast coming along after PMQ 's I believe

    Politics hey
    Nationalised again?
    Looks like it
  • BromBrom Posts: 983
    MaxPB said:

    nunuone said:
    Who are the 1% who think C4 news is strongly biased to the right wing?!?
    That's good news. Channel 4 news is pretty left leaning guff but ITV despite Tom Bradby's patronising delivery definitely hits the balance. BBC TV news is fine on balance in my opinion (though Will Gompertz is to be avoided), BBC website editorial pretty awful and Sky News is basically a remaniac safe haven these days (if anyone watches).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 29,384
    FPT:
    Anazina said:

    all the shops in Cincinnati

    You must have been very bad in a previous life - “great place to bring up kids” was always the reflexive defence..Ever try “Cincinnati Chili”?

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    edited May 16

    Good news on cladding but just the merest suspicion the question was planted.

    And rail nationisation of East Coast coming along after PMQ 's I believe

    Politics hey
    Nationalised again?
    Looks like it
    What a farce. They should have just kept it publicly owned in the first place – it worked well under DOR.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nationalised-east-coast-rail-line-returns-209m-to-taxpayers-8866157.html

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/east-coast-rail-firm-directly-operated-railways-boosts-profits-8181255.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451
    Been chatting to an old colleague of mine, he says they have released their preliminary range of IoT processors/boards to manufacturing and development partners.

    The chips are compatible with GPS and GLONASS tracking, they tried to get them compatible with Galileo as well but the project is so disorganised and they weren't able to get a firm confirmation on access pricing, specifications and a few other major issues so they decided to dump it and release without. They hope to have it in the next model, but it's going to be tough because they aren't getting any answers.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672

    FPT:

    Anazina said:

    all the shops in Cincinnati

    You must have been very bad in a previous life - “great place to bring up kids” was always the reflexive defence..Ever try “Cincinnati Chili”?

    I have actually never visited it – I was using it as lazy shorthand for middle America
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 254
    GE2017 showed us that what the Tories need above all else is someone who can f****** CAMPAIGN. Someone who can turn up to debates, speak engagingly, and sell a well-chosen set of policies with passion and clarity.

    No other criterion matters a damn - pull someone off the street who ticks those boxes if the PCP can't supply them!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,766
    edited May 16
    AndyJS said:

    Trump's approval rating with registered voters climbs to 44.4%, compared to the 46.1% he got at the 2016 election.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

    Observing this dispassionately, you have to say that he does much better when he's doing Trumpy things like paying off porn stars, demonstrating the Art of the Deal with North Korea, ripping up treaties he doesn't understand and saving Chinese jobs in exchange for personal financial favours, as opposed to orthodox Republican things like tax cuts for rich people and repealing-and-not-replacing ObamaCare.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,754
    blueblue said:

    GE2017 showed us that what the Tories need above all else is someone who can f****** CAMPAIGN. Someone who can turn up to debates, speak engagingly, and sell a well-chosen set of policies with passion and clarity.

    No other criterion matters a damn - pull someone off the street who ticks those boxes if the PCP can't supply them!

    Didn't Dave refuse to take part in a one on one debate in 2015? I can't remember exactly what happened.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,120
    Not long now until Southgate reveals the squad that will win the World Cup.... ;-)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,179
    edited May 16
    FPT:
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mr. Ace, by that definition, we didn't vote to remain in the EEC in the 1970s.

    Presumably we will have to shadow such rules as part of Max Fac as part of Brexit, with no longer any say over the rules.

    Not something that I will lose sleep over though.
    No, actually, it is one of the main differences between a customs partnership, where we would almost certainly follow the rules, and Max fac, where we wouldn't, because we have our own import rules and regs.

    I would have confidence that if this EU law is passed as drafted, we might be able to get the British government to repeal it post transition.
    Our government may prefer to keep bureaucracy to a minimum by following the EU rules.
    Given the importance of London to the worldwide antiques market, I suspect not.
    What percentage of antiques would need to be checked and certificated for import/export from the remainder of the EU if we deviate from the rules?
    You're missing the point. It is import regs, not export, that the legislation is trying to change. If we have MaxFac we won't be in the customs union. We'll have our own streamlined customs system.

    If the EU want to be silly and check all 250+ year old antiques for the correct paperwork, that is their problem. And it would be a problem, because officials won't know whether something is 250+ years old, and are they seriously going to unwrap tens of thousands of ebay purchases to see?

    So you are suggesting smuggling? I reckon we will stick to the same rules.


    No, I am suggesting that an independent country would have an independent trade policy under MaxFac.

    If the EU want to make it hard to import antiques, then they can. But as a key centre of the world antiques trade; we'll likely not keep those silly rules.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 3,425

    Not long now until Southgate reveals the squad that will win the World Cup.... ;-)

    Is he naming the German team too?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,077
    Either Gove or Sajid would be infinitely better than May/Hammond.

  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 254
    Meawhile Diane Abbott is promising open borders under Labour in all but name:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/16/labour-would-end-hostile-environment-immigration-policy-says-abbott-yarls-wood-brook-house

    An effective campaigner as Tory leader would smash the Opposition into the middle of next week.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,297
    On topic, I agree with Mike. It helps that I'd be happy with either as leader. Granted, questions come with either but then that's true of anyone. Would Gove be able to reverse the unpopularity he suffered at Education? Javid is atill a bit of a blank sheet.

    The one technical point I'd make is that it's unlikely that a candidate would need the support of 100+ MPs.

    To reach the final two, you have to finish in the top two in the round-of-three. To be absolutely assured of that, you do indeed need more than 1/3 of the MPs (i.e. at least 106) but the more that the leading candidate scores, the fewer votes the second candidate needs. So if the leading candidate secures 150 votes, then the next one only needs more than (316-150)/2 i.e. 89. That said, the bigger the deficit among MPs, the harder it becomes to run a credible campaign.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    Grayling: EAST COAST MAINLINE RENATIONALISED ON 24 JUNE

    Public/private partnership medium-term
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985
    Anazina said:

    Grayling: EAST COAST MAINLINE RENATIONALISED ON 24 JUNE

    Public/private partnership medium-term

    LNER back
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    Grayling ushers in the end of franchising with LNER public/private partnership plan.

    Chrissy Grayling, the people's transport secretary.

    Who'd a thunk it.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,451
    AndyJS said:

    blueblue said:

    GE2017 showed us that what the Tories need above all else is someone who can f****** CAMPAIGN. Someone who can turn up to debates, speak engagingly, and sell a well-chosen set of policies with passion and clarity.

    No other criterion matters a damn - pull someone off the street who ticks those boxes if the PCP can't supply them!

    Didn't Dave refuse to take part in a one on one debate in 2015? I can't remember exactly what happened.
    He forced the broadcasters to change the format and only had one head to head vs Miliband which suited his style over substance politics vs Ed's no-style all policy wonk method.

    Theresa May is a useless debater and a useless campaigner. Dave was absolutely miles ahead of her.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985
    Anazina said:

    Grayling ushers in the end of franchising with LNER public/private partnership plan.

    Chrissy Grayling, the people's transport secretary.

    Who'd a thunk it.

    Sounds like joint private public partnership emerging across the rail networks. Big move and should be popular
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    Great Northern ALSO heading into LNER PPP Grayling indicates.

    Franchising is dead.

    Discuss.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672

    Anazina said:

    Grayling ushers in the end of franchising with LNER public/private partnership plan.

    Chrissy Grayling, the people's transport secretary.

    Who'd a thunk it.

    Sounds like joint private public partnership emerging across the rail networks. Big move and should be popular
    Agreed. A sharp move to the left by the government that will be very popular. Franchising is a failure and deeply unpopular with the British public.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985
    Anazina said:

    Great Northern ALSO heading into LNER PPP Grayling indicates.

    Franchising is dead.

    Discuss.

    Sounds as if Grayling has made a huge move today
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985

    Anazina said:

    Great Northern ALSO heading into LNER PPP Grayling indicates.

    Franchising is dead.

    Discuss.

    Sounds as if Grayling has made a huge move today
    Labour struggling to respond
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 29,120
    Is the Labour's spokesman on transport the poster boy for the Gammon insult?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985

    Is the Labour's spokesman on transport the poster boy for the Gammon insult?

    Grayling has just shot Corbyn's renationalisation fox
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,425
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Grayling ushers in the end of franchising with LNER public/private partnership plan.

    Chrissy Grayling, the people's transport secretary.

    Who'd a thunk it.

    Sounds like joint private public partnership emerging across the rail networks. Big move and should be popular
    Agreed. A sharp move to the left by the government that will be very popular. Franchising is a failure and deeply unpopular with the British public.
    #effectiveopposition?
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,608

    On topic, I agree with Mike. It helps that I'd be happy with either as leader. Granted, questions come with either but then that's true of anyone. Would Gove be able to reverse the unpopularity he suffered at Education? Javid is atill a bit of a blank sheet.

    The one technical point I'd make is that it's unlikely that a candidate would need the support of 100+ MPs.

    To reach the final two, you have to finish in the top two in the round-of-three. To be absolutely assured of that, you do indeed need more than 1/3 of the MPs (i.e. at least 106) but the more that the leading candidate scores, the fewer votes the second candidate needs. So if the leading candidate secures 150 votes, then the next one only needs more than (316-150)/2 i.e. 89. That said, the bigger the deficit among MPs, the harder it becomes to run a credible campaign.

    Gove is a seear word in my house, my other half is a teacher. She shows me some of the changes that have been instituted under his tenure as Education Secretary and some of it seems to offer little or no benefit for a lot of change.

    Who knows that GCSE's are now graded from 1 to 9 and not A* to E? But teachers have no idea what the different grades are meant to be. The GCSEs essentially now have zero or minimal coursework and a massive increase in content. And then the Baccalaureate which is really just a means to channel children through doing a specific set of GCSEs. It offers no merit outside of that and results in a narrowing of subjects taught at schools as those subjects that arent part of it are skipped by the brighter kids.

    Some of the changes I'm sympathetic to, and its fairly clear that the left only object to it when its Conservative ministers interfering with the curriculum, not when it was Labour.

    But Gove is a bit marmite....

  • notmenotme Posts: 2,608
    AndyJS said:

    blueblue said:

    GE2017 showed us that what the Tories need above all else is someone who can f****** CAMPAIGN. Someone who can turn up to debates, speak engagingly, and sell a well-chosen set of policies with passion and clarity.

    No other criterion matters a damn - pull someone off the street who ticks those boxes if the PCP can't supply them!

    Didn't Dave refuse to take part in a one on one debate in 2015? I can't remember exactly what happened.
    As a negotiating technique he managed to get everything he wanted. It was a dream situation for him. I assumed May not wanting to take part was just that, a negotiating starter to make sure she got what she wanted. I was horrified when she didnt take part.

    She isnt that bad. She's a bit wooden but she can hold her own. Terrible decision.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,608

    Is the Labour's spokesman on transport the poster boy for the Gammon insult?

    Grayling has just shot Corbyn's renationalisation fox
    Bizarre since the privatisng of BT, water and the railways are three of the top five of the most successful post war policy decisions of any government to date.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,813
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    blueblue said:

    GE2017 showed us that what the Tories need above all else is someone who can f****** CAMPAIGN. Someone who can turn up to debates, speak engagingly, and sell a well-chosen set of policies with passion and clarity.

    No other criterion matters a damn - pull someone off the street who ticks those boxes if the PCP can't supply them!

    Didn't Dave refuse to take part in a one on one debate in 2015? I can't remember exactly what happened.
    He forced the broadcasters to change the format and only had one head to head vs Miliband which suited his style over substance politics vs Ed's no-style all policy wonk method.

    Theresa May is a useless debater and a useless campaigner. Dave was absolutely miles ahead of her.
    In one of the 2015 accounts, there is a great description of how Dave and advisers slowly but surely played Ed M into a corner with this. I'll dig it out later, but they were so willing to have something that they massively overplayed their hands.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    notme said:

    Is the Labour's spokesman on transport the poster boy for the Gammon insult?

    Grayling has just shot Corbyn's renationalisation fox
    Bizarre since the privatisng of BT, water and the railways are three of the top five of the most successful post war policy decisions of any government to date.
    LOL
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,608
    Anazina said:

    Great Northern ALSO heading into LNER PPP Grayling indicates.

    Franchising is dead.

    Discuss.

    Franchising model is getting rolled out across the EU...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985
    notme said:

    Is the Labour's spokesman on transport the poster boy for the Gammon insult?

    Grayling has just shot Corbyn's renationalisation fox
    Bizarre since the privatisng of BT, water and the railways are three of the top five of the most successful post war policy decisions of any government to date.
    This is not nationalisation - it is a public private partnership
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    rkrkrk said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Grayling ushers in the end of franchising with LNER public/private partnership plan.

    Chrissy Grayling, the people's transport secretary.

    Who'd a thunk it.

    Sounds like joint private public partnership emerging across the rail networks. Big move and should be popular
    Agreed. A sharp move to the left by the government that will be very popular. Franchising is a failure and deeply unpopular with the British public.
    #effectiveopposition?
    Your OP on this was very thought provoking.

    I'm no Corbyn fan but on a the most fundamental neutral measure of forcing the govt to change its policies, Her Majesty's Opposition has been rather effective, I must admit.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,608
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    blueblue said:

    GE2017 showed us that what the Tories need above all else is someone who can f****** CAMPAIGN. Someone who can turn up to debates, speak engagingly, and sell a well-chosen set of policies with passion and clarity.

    No other criterion matters a damn - pull someone off the street who ticks those boxes if the PCP can't supply them!

    Didn't Dave refuse to take part in a one on one debate in 2015? I can't remember exactly what happened.
    He forced the broadcasters to change the format and only had one head to head vs Miliband which suited his style over substance politics vs Ed's no-style all policy wonk method.

    Theresa May is a useless debater and a useless campaigner. Dave was absolutely miles ahead of her.
    And he made it look easy......
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,956
    Anazina said:

    Great Northern ALSO heading into LNER PPP Grayling indicates.

    Franchising is dead.

    Discuss.

    Do you have a link for that? That's quite a big shake up if Great Northern is leaving GTR.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,297
    notme said:

    On topic, I agree with Mike. It helps that I'd be happy with either as leader. Granted, questions come with either but then that's true of anyone. Would Gove be able to reverse the unpopularity he suffered at Education? Javid is atill a bit of a blank sheet.

    The one technical point I'd make is that it's unlikely that a candidate would need the support of 100+ MPs.

    To reach the final two, you have to finish in the top two in the round-of-three. To be absolutely assured of that, you do indeed need more than 1/3 of the MPs (i.e. at least 106) but the more that the leading candidate scores, the fewer votes the second candidate needs. So if the leading candidate secures 150 votes, then the next one only needs more than (316-150)/2 i.e. 89. That said, the bigger the deficit among MPs, the harder it becomes to run a credible campaign.

    Gove is a seear word in my house, my other half is a teacher. She shows me some of the changes that have been instituted under his tenure as Education Secretary and some of it seems to offer little or no benefit for a lot of change.

    Who knows that GCSE's are now graded from 1 to 9 and not A* to E? But teachers have no idea what the different grades are meant to be. The GCSEs essentially now have zero or minimal coursework and a massive increase in content. And then the Baccalaureate which is really just a means to channel children through doing a specific set of GCSEs. It offers no merit outside of that and results in a narrowing of subjects taught at schools as those subjects that arent part of it are skipped by the brighter kids.

    Some of the changes I'm sympathetic to, and its fairly clear that the left only object to it when its Conservative ministers interfering with the curriculum, not when it was Labour.

    But Gove is a bit marmite....

    Gove is a bit marmite and I worry that he tends too much towards theory rather than practice. All the same, a lot of what he did at education was necessary - and done in the face of knee-jerk opposition from unions and the Blob in general - and he has been imaginative and progressive at both Justice and the Environment. He has the makings of a decent leader - and he's not afraid to debate, which is a positive.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,130
    notme said:

    AndyJS said:

    blueblue said:

    GE2017 showed us that what the Tories need above all else is someone who can f****** CAMPAIGN. Someone who can turn up to debates, speak engagingly, and sell a well-chosen set of policies with passion and clarity.

    No other criterion matters a damn - pull someone off the street who ticks those boxes if the PCP can't supply them!

    Didn't Dave refuse to take part in a one on one debate in 2015? I can't remember exactly what happened.
    As a negotiating technique he managed to get everything he wanted. It was a dream situation for him. I assumed May not wanting to take part was just that, a negotiating starter to make sure she got what she wanted. I was horrified when she didnt take part.

    She isnt that bad. She's a bit wooden but she can hold her own. Terrible decision.
    There has never been a consistent format re-the debates at the three elections they have featured. That probably makes it easier for one of the major parties to put a fly in the ointment by raising objections which effectively prevent them from happening - should it suit their interests.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,985
    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Great Northern ALSO heading into LNER PPP Grayling indicates.

    Franchising is dead.

    Discuss.

    Do you have a link for that? That's quite a big shake up if Great Northern is leaving GTR.
    Grayling has just said this is not franchising - it is a new paradigm and he will set out the details shortly
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 1,672
    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Great Northern ALSO heading into LNER PPP Grayling indicates.

    Franchising is dead.

    Discuss.

    Do you have a link for that? That's quite a big shake up if Great Northern is leaving GTR.
    No, it has literally just been announced by Grayling in the HoC a few minutes ago – I'm watching BBC Parliament.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,130
    edited May 16
    notme said:

    On topic, I agree with Mike. It helps that I'd be happy with either as leader. Granted, questions come with either but then that's true of anyone. Would Gove be able to reverse the unpopularity he suffered at Education? Javid is atill a bit of a blank sheet.

    The one technical point I'd make is that it's unlikely that a candidate would need the support of 100+ MPs.

    To reach the final two, you have to finish in the top two in the round-of-three. To be absolutely assured of that, you do indeed need more than 1/3 of the MPs (i.e. at least 106) but the more that the leading candidate scores, the fewer votes the second candidate needs. So if the leading candidate secures 150 votes, then the next one only needs more than (316-150)/2 i.e. 89. That said, the bigger the deficit among MPs, the harder it becomes to run a credible campaign.

    Gove is a seear word in my house, my other half is a teacher. She shows me some of the changes that have been instituted under his tenure as Education Secretary and some of it seems to offer little or no benefit for a lot of change.

    Who knows that GCSE's are now graded from 1 to 9 and not A* to E? But teachers have no idea what the different grades are meant to be. The GCSEs essentially now have zero or minimal coursework and a massive increase in content. And then the Baccalaureate which is really just a means to channel children through doing a specific set of GCSEs. It offers no merit outside of that and results in a narrowing of subjects taught at schools as those subjects that arent part of it are skipped by the brighter kids.

    Some of the changes I'm sympathetic to, and its fairly clear that the left only object to it when its Conservative ministers interfering with the curriculum, not when it was Labour.

    But Gove is a bit marmite....

    There was little or no course work for O levels and A levels anyway until the late 1980s. Back in the early 1970s O levels were graded 1 to 9 . A few years later the grading system was replaced by A to E.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,297
    Anazina said:

    Great Northern ALSO heading into LNER PPP Grayling indicates.

    Franchising is dead.

    Discuss.

    Far too early to say that. i expect that a new franchise will be put up for tender in due course. Grayling probably had no real choice other than to return the current franchise to the state, in the absence of another operator being able to take over immediately.

    The only other option - to keep the current franchisee on - would have looked ludicrous. They clearly need to suffer some form of penalty for failing to meet their commitments (thought it should be noted that the failure of the state-owned Network Rail to keep *its* commitments was part of Virgin-Stagecoach's problem).

    The ability of the government to act as an operator of last resort is a useful disincentive for bidders to bid high and then renegotiate once the contract is in the pocket - but not only does it not undermine the franchise model, it actually strengthens it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,094
    Anazina said:

    notme said:

    Is the Labour's spokesman on transport the poster boy for the Gammon insult?

    Grayling has just shot Corbyn's renationalisation fox
    Bizarre since the privatisng of BT, water and the railways are three of the top five of the most successful post war policy decisions of any government to date.
    LOL
    You'd prefer Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn to provide your mobile phone?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    This is a good bet, Gove and Javid are 2nd and 4th in the latest Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll. Gove could and up overtaking Boris and Mogg as the leading Brexiteer candidate eith MPs and Javid would be the Remain candidate but someone who is enough of a Brexiteer to appeal to Leavers.

    Of the 2 Javid is more electable and has a higher yougov approval rating though and is probably the best prospect
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 43,711
    Charlesv said:

    I agree with that analysis about Mogg and BoJo: they are just to divisive for the parliamentary party to put them forward.

    Both Javid and Gove have the ability to think on their feet under the pressure of media interview and sound intelligent. I think that will factor heavily into the tory thinking given what happened in the last campaign.

    That said, Gove is toxic to a large part of the electorate and may not have had enough time in his current role to erase then memory of his time as education secretary. I think it would be a big risk for him to be put forward. I therefore think that it could well be Hunt and Javid.

    My guess is that ultimately they will not trust the membership to make the choice and Javid will end up being the chosen one.

    Hunt is just as toxic with the public according to Yougov as Gove and is also being investigated by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,608
    TOPPING said:

    Anazina said:

    notme said:

    Is the Labour's spokesman on transport the poster boy for the Gammon insult?

    Grayling has just shot Corbyn's renationalisation fox
    Bizarre since the privatisng of BT, water and the railways are three of the top five of the most successful post war policy decisions of any government to date.
    LOL
    You'd prefer Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn to provide your mobile phone?
    Quite. With BT being the first, it was one of the engines of the global communications revolution that has changed the world. The whole notion that telecommunications was not an arm of the government but a fully independent competitive market place created an explosion in innovation and advancement. Copied and replicated around the world.
This discussion has been closed.