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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : May 17th 2018

SystemSystem Posts: 11,006
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : May 17th 2018

Skerton West on Lancaster (Lab defence) Result: Lab 587 (58% +21% on last time), Con 279 (27% +1% on last time), Lib Dem 95 (9%, Green 59 (6% -3% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -20%, No Ind candidate this time -7%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 308 (31%) on a swing of 10% from Con to Lab

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    First.
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Brexit off!
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Thanks, Harry - but the final swing is surely from Lab to Con?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    Tissue_Price said:

    Thanks, Harry - but the final swing is surely from Lab to Con?

    Also, if Con is +13%, and Ind is -10%, then Ind should have won the seat last time around... (Although this may simply be the rounding.)
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Thanks, Harry - but the final swing is surely from Lab to Con?

    Also, if Con is +13%, and Ind is -10%, then Ind should have won the seat last time around... (Although this may simply be the rounding.)
    The Ind did win last time, the Con defence is for the second seat elected in a multi-member ward.

    May 2015 result Ind 918/305 C 887/845 Lab 691/619 Grn 320/309 LD 264/162

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited May 2018
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Fenman said:

    Cynosarges said:

    The problem is that Bercow has things backward.

    The tradition is that th chair.

    Not sure what the fuss is about. Andrea Leadsom is a stupid woman.
    Good point. Speaker tells the truth, shock-horror!
    Obbott is a *****d *i*** who can't add up. Still so keen?
    Not bothered really.
    If you are happy for Bercow to call Abbott that or Leadsom the other thing, then you are in effect saying Corbyn and May should do the same. And while senior figures do cross the line like that at times, they face criticism for it and should continue to do so.

    The level of our political discourse is not great, but I'd think we'd all hope it doesn't get even worse by not caring about such things, even if we would not want to get carried away and start enforcing resignations for cockish utterances.
    You misunderstand. I would not be bothered if Bercow made a similar off-the-cuff aside about any senior politician from any party. .
    On the contrary, I understood perfectly, since it is that which I was astonished by - that you have no problem with senior politicians, of any side, throwing around personal insults in public.

    As I think i made very clear I don't think his comment is resignation worthy, and I agreed that his opponents were using it because of their wider dislike of him, and that other politicians cross the line. I don't see what that has to do with that making it ok to make those kind of comments, since as I said that means you are ok with May or Corbyn or whoever to start doing it.

    Let's have May stand up at the next PMQs, then as she sits down have her say 'That Abbott is a right stupid twat', or have Corbyn sit down and comment to McDonnell 'That Javid is as thick as two short planks, isn't he, the useless git'.

    By your logic because those are insulting but still mild comments, not intended for public consumption, that is totally ok. After all, it's only Corbynites/Tories who hate May/Corbyn who will be complaining because they don't like them, right?

    For someone who generally comes across as reasonable and understanding, without disguising deep political disagreement with people, it shocked me that you defend personal insults on the basis of 'Well, the people complaining just don't like the man, and he didn't mean to be overheard'. Those are incredibly lame defences you see from spin doctors, and for all there is no need to overreact to Bercow's comments, and recognise his opponents do seek to force him out, that surprises me. When people engage in such talk they should be criticised, but you in essence seem to be saying they shouldn't be.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Bercow allegedly said Andrea Leadsom was a "liar" after she conftrined him over his "stupid woman" remarks

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/18/john-bercow-allegedly-called-andrea-leadsom-liar-confronted/
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Fenman said:

    Cynosarges said:

    Not bothered really.
    You misunderstand. I would not be bothered if Bercow made a similar off-the-cuff aside about any senior politician from any party. .
    On the contrary, I understood perfectly, since it is that which I was astonished by - that you have no problem with senior politicians, of any side, throwing around personal insults in public.

    As I think i made very clear I don't think his comment is resignation worthy, and I agreed that his opponents were using it because of their wider dislike of him, and that other politicians cross the line. I don't see what that has to do with that making it ok to make those kind of comments, since as I said that means you are ok with May or Corbyn or whoever to start doing it.

    Let's have May stand up at the next PMQs, then as she sits down have her say 'That Abbott is a right stupid twat', or have Corbyn sit down and comment to McDonnell 'That Javid is as thick as two short planks, isn't he, the useless git'.

    By your logic because those are insulting but still mild comments, not intended for public consumption, that is totally ok. After all, it's only Corbynites/Tories who hate May/Corbyn who will be complaining because they don't like them, right?

    For someone who generally comes across as reasonable and understanding, without disguising deep political disagreement with people, it shocked me that you defend personal insults on the basis of 'Well, the people complaining just don't like the man, and he didn't mean to be overheard'. Those are incredibly lame defences you see from spin doctors, and for all there is no need to overreact to Bercow's comments, and recognise his opponents do seek to force him out, that surprises me. When people engage in such talk they should be criticised, but you in essence seem to be saying they shouldn't be.
    I wasn't intending to defend Bercow, I just didn't find his comments particularly shocking. Not as shocking, for example, as David Cameron's overheard comments about the Queen 'purring' after the IndyRef.

    Specifically, Felix asked me if I would feel the same if Bercow had insulted Diane Abbott. I answered that I would not be bothered.

    My opinion is that the government are trying to oust Bercow for a number of reasons, mainly that they believe he has been unsympathetic to their cause.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    What's happening ? Big swings to Labour.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    edit
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    Andrew Teale's write-up for yesterday's by-elections:

    https://britainelects.com/2018/05/16/previews-17-may-2018/
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Bombshell in Newsnight
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    GIN1138 said:

    Bercow allegedly said Andrea Leadsom was a "liar" after she conftrined him over his "stupid woman" remarks

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/18/john-bercow-allegedly-called-andrea-leadsom-liar-confronted/

    To be fair to Bercow, Leadsom did lie about her job in investment management.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    Clarkson's hosting???
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    Clarkson's hosting???
    :lol: "...and on that bombshell..."
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,514
    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    I agree, but the voters are going to have to experience it before they can regret it.

    Even then, Brexit will be blamed on those who voted against it. Voters rarely show the degree of insight necessary.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Why won’t it mean control of immigration? Nobody knows either way yet do we? What’s for sure is staying in means no change, no control.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,514
    welshowl said:

    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Why won’t it mean control of immigration? Nobody knows either way yet do we? What’s for sure is staying in means no change, no control.
    We have control of the 2/3 of net migration from Non-EU countries, and despite the rhetoric it runs at about +200 000 per year.

    Color me sceptical that anything will change.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited May 2018
    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Why won’t it mean control of immigration? Nobody knows either way yet do we? What’s for sure is staying in means no change, no control.
    We have control of the 2/3 of net migration from Non-EU countries, and despite the rhetoric it runs at about +200 000 per year.

    Color me sceptical that anything will change.
    At present we are wide open to the flotsam and jetsam of 440m people. Without any say at all on who how many or when they turn up. Silly old me I’d like to favour Indian brain surgeons over Bulgarian car washers.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Why won’t it mean control of immigration? Nobody knows either way yet do we? What’s for sure is staying in means no change, no control.
    We have control of the 2/3 of net migration from Non-EU countries, and despite the rhetoric it runs at about +200 000 per year.

    Color me sceptical that anything will change.
    At present we are wide open to the flotsam and jetsam of 440m people. Without any say at all on who how many or when they turn up. Silly old me I’d like to favour Indian brain surgeons over Bulgarian car washers.
    Some Welsh people find free movement from England pretty hard to take...
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    williamglenn said:

    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Why won’t it mean control of immigration? Nobody knows either way yet do we? What’s for sure is staying in means no change, no control.
    We have control of the 2/3 of net migration from Non-EU countries, and despite the rhetoric it runs at about +200 000 per year.

    Color me sceptical that anything will change.
    At present we are wide open to the flotsam and jetsam of 440m people. Without any say at all on who how many or when they turn up. Silly old me I’d like to favour Indian brain surgeons over Bulgarian car washers.
    Some Welsh people find free movement from England pretty hard to take...
    Indeed and some burnt peoples houses down. Uncontrolled immmigration can release deep emotions. Which is why it’s best to regulate it better than is allowable under the EU.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    welshowl said:

    williamglenn said:

    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Why won’t it mean control of immigration? Nobody knows either way yet do we? What’s for sure is staying in means no change, no control.
    We have control of the 2/3 of net migration from Non-EU countries, and despite the rhetoric it runs at about +200 000 per year.

    Color me sceptical that anything will change.
    At present we are wide open to the flotsam and jetsam of 440m people. Without any say at all on who how many or when they turn up. Silly old me I’d like to favour Indian brain surgeons over Bulgarian car washers.
    Some Welsh people find free movement from England pretty hard to take...
    Indeed and some burnt peoples houses down. Uncontrolled immmigration can release deep emotions. Which is why it’s best to regulate it better than is allowable under the EU.
    Sunil's Welsh conquests comprise Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth, Chester to Holyhead, Llandudno Junction to Llandudno, the Great Orme Tramway, Chester to Gobowen, Wrexham Central to Neston and Severn Tunnel Junction/Chepstow to Swansea
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    williamglenn said:

    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Why won’t it mean control of immigration? Nobody knows either way yet do we? What’s for sure is staying in means no change, no control.
    We have control of the 2/3 of net migration from Non-EU countries, and despite the rhetoric it runs at about +200 000 per year.

    Color me sceptical that anything will change.
    At present we are wide open to the flotsam and jetsam of 440m people. Without any say at all on who how many or when they turn up. Silly old me I’d like to favour Indian brain surgeons over Bulgarian car washers.
    Some Welsh people find free movement from England pretty hard to take...
    There are just as many Welsh in England, one of my best friends is Welsh and lives and works in London
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    welshowl said:

    williamglenn said:

    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Why won’t it mean control of immigration? Nobody knows either way yet do we? What’s for sure is staying in means no change, no control.
    We have control of the 2/3 of net migration from Non-EU countries, and despite the rhetoric it runs at about +200 000 per year.

    Color me sceptical that anything will change.
    At present we are wide open to the flotsam and jetsam of 440m people. Without any say at all on who how many or when they turn up. Silly old me I’d like to favour Indian brain surgeons over Bulgarian car washers.
    Some Welsh people find free movement from England pretty hard to take...
    Indeed and some burnt peoples houses down. Uncontrolled immmigration can release deep emotions. Which is why it’s best to regulate it better than is allowable under the EU.
    Sunil's Welsh conquests comprise Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth, Chester to Holyhead, Llandudno Junction to Llandudno, the Great Orme Tramway, Chester to Gobowen, Wrexham Central to Neston and Severn Tunnel Junction/Chepstow to Swansea
    Sunil: I am sure that sort of “conquest” from your good self is wholly welcome.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Former Cabinet ministers - not Nicky Morgan, Dominic Grieve and Ken Clarke again with Soubry for moral support?

    What about current ones?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    YouGov on 18th April 2010:

    LD 33%, Con 32%, Lab 26%

    https://web.archive.org/web/20100420092111/http://politicalbetting.com:80/index.php/archives/2010/04/18/lib-dems-move-into-the-lead-with-yougov/#comments
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319
    Labour mopping up all the UKIP votes - curious.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov on 18th April 2010:

    LD 33%, Con 32%, Lab 26%

    https://web.archive.org/web/20100420092111/http://politicalbetting.com:80/index.php/archives/2010/04/18/lib-dems-move-into-the-lead-with-yougov/#comments

    Unlikely we will ever see a poll like that for quite some time.

    At that point Clegg briefly overtook Cameron to play the fresh faced Kennedy to Brown's scowling and tired Nixon
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    NickPalmer said:

    Labour mopping up all the UKIP votes - curious.

    In the North and Wales probably a majority of UKIP voters have gone Labour, especially with Corbyn's commitment to Brexit and leaving the single market and ending free movement, in the South UKIP voters are more likely to have gone Tory
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Labour mopping up all the UKIP votes - curious.

    In the North and Wales probably a majority of UKIP voters have gone Labour, especially with Corbyn's commitment to Brexit and leaving the single market and ending free movement, in the South UKIP voters are more likely to have gone Tory
    It's a complex pattern. In some areas in the north most of the UKIP vote has gone back to Labour, in other areas it hasn't. Maybe there's a bit of an east/west split. UKIP voters in the Manchester area for instance being more likely to go back to Labour, the east coast not so much.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov on 18th April 2010:

    LD 33%, Con 32%, Lab 26%

    https://web.archive.org/web/20100420092111/http://politicalbetting.com:80/index.php/archives/2010/04/18/lib-dems-move-into-the-lead-with-yougov/#comments

    We all agreed with Nick...
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/19/iraq-anti-us-cleric-moqtada-al-sadrs-bloc-confirmed-as-election-winners

    Strange thing, this democracy!

    Also, in Lebanon, Hezbollah + Maronite Christian alliance wins narrowly.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    brendan16 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Former Cabinet ministers - not Nicky Morgan, Dominic Grieve and Ken Clarke again with Soubry for moral support?

    What about current ones?
    brendan16 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Former Cabinet ministers - not Nicky Morgan, Dominic Grieve and Ken Clarke again with Soubry for moral support?

    What about current ones?
    All of them giants compared with the current shower.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    The_Taxman said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    surby said:

    Bombshell in Newsnight

    If you mean

    Our political editor @nicholaswatt has learned that former cabinet ministers are planning an intervention to tell Theresa May to stand up to hardline Brexiteers in her own party: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44175169 … #newsnight

    Meh
    Well, Brexit is an utter mess.

    The hardliners just want to walk away IMO and stuff the consequences. People like JRM, who is worth £100 million according to internet valuation searches have little to fear, indeed he could make money out of a hard Brexit due to predictable market movements due to the shock. As always it will be the poor and those looking to climb the economic and social ladder who will suffer. Brexit does not mean the end of mass immigration or the injection of £350 million a week for the NHS. Brexit means a worse deal than the one we have at the moment and I have seen no information which proponents of Brexit use that changes my opinion.... I could go on but I think it is pointless repetition of previous posts.
    Yet we haven't had the immediate recession, million increase in unemployment, punishment budget, stock market crash, car factories shutting down, City relocating to Frankfurt, refugee camps in Dover and shops empty of food as Remainers predicted.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,265
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov on 18th April 2010:

    LD 33%, Con 32%, Lab 26%

    https://web.archive.org/web/20100420092111/http://politicalbetting.com:80/index.php/archives/2010/04/18/lib-dems-move-into-the-lead-with-yougov/#comments

    We all agreed with Nick...
    I thought the Conservatives might be finished for good then.

    Stressful times.
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