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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf gives her take as EdM prepares to give his big speech
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Faisal Islam @faisalislam
2012/13 was the worst year for English housebuilding completions on record (since 1969). Build for victory! …
Ignorant twaddle from Faisal Islam. He is using the same source as I am - LiveTable209.xls from DCLG - so he should be able to read that the 2012-13 figures are incomplete. There is a provisional estimate only for England and no data yet for Scotland, Wales and NI.
If Miliband made an election promise of 365 days in 75% of years Faisal Islam would claim Labour is"building for victory!"
Meanwhile Stormin Norman rubbishes any claims of BBC bias.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100237652/a-merry-go-round-of-villains-fools-and-lobbyists-will-party-conference-season-never-end/
"Of course I would not suggest that the BBC is institutionally biased. It seems to me to be pretty evenly split between outright supporters of the Lib Dems and those committed to Labour, so it is nicely balanced between the conflicting views of The Guardian and the New Statesman."
Amazing really that Osborne only started to wake up to housing halfway through the parliament.After slashing the social housebuilding budget in half in 2010.
Whether you think like I do that the govt should've thrown the kitchen sink at housing three years ago,or whether you believe like Avery that stoking up the demand side now is right, its certainly been a huge missed opportunity for the govt.
And now they are trying to cram as much feelgood bubble into the tail end of the Parliament.
Local Authorities have built 6,200 dwellings in the first three years under Osborne. As the figures for the third year, 2012-13 only include England, and, as Scotland built 1,110 dwellings in 2012, the final total is likely to be between 7,200-7,500.
So in the first three years of the Coalition more homes have been built by Local Authorities than during the entire 1997-2010 Labour governments who only managed 6,400 in total.
In the first two years of the Coalition government (stats are not yet available for 2012-13), Housing Association new builds have averaged 32,410. Under the 13 years of prior Labour government, the average was 24,797.
Private Sector new-builds as a proportion of total housing stock sold have been higher in each of the first three years of the Coalition government than in any one year of the 97-10 Labour governments.
The Private Sector, under any government, will only build to meet realistic expectations of demand volume and value. Turnover in the residential property market (volume x value) was only 25% of pre-crisis peaks in June 2013:
During the boom times of 2007, the Indicator stood at 10,000 properties a day. The flow of properties fell drastically as the financial crisis hit, but recovered to 4,000 per day in 2010.
However, over the last three years, the Indicator has shown a downward trend, with stock levels falling faster than marketing times.
Currently, the Indicator stands at 2,761 properties a day – a turnover 14% lower than in June 2012. [Estate Agent News]
So even though turnover has been running at 28% of 2007 levels, private sector new builds are currently averaging 60% of the 2007 levels.
The justification for Osborne's housing finance interventions are staring you in the face, tim.
"It's not fur!"
RT @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/ITV News: Ed M 'is in control of the Labour Party' agree 28% disagree 45% ht.ly/p9Qm4
Shirt-sleeves or Jacket?
Tie or not?
Sleeves rolled up?
Notes and podium or free-form jazz style?
Verbs?
A-
So is he going to say
I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216913/My-husband-hero-Return-Sarah-Brown-Prime-Minister-gives-make-break-speech.html
Once the 2012-13 figures are finalised (with Scotland, Wales and NI included plus second half England figures), the UK year total will be higher than 2011-12. So you and Faisal won't need to time shift back to 1969 or even WWII. You will just need to go back one year.
You need to look at industry pipeline stats to see the trend.
Carl Dinnen @carldinnen
Our ITV/ComRes Poll in full here;
Don't join the PB Lefties in misinterpreting the YouGov poll this morning.
Southam Observer and tim have argued that YouGov changed their weightings to deliver a poll showing near parity between Labour and the Conservatives.
Using the same logic we might ask why YouGov have delivered a poll which is at the other end of the range for the eve of Ed Miliband's speech.
Will we see a massive fall tomorrow? "Voters not impressed by Miliband speech. Labour ;lead falls by 3%."
I don't normally believe in such silly conspiracies, but now tim and SO have set the hare running, I am beginning to have my doubts.
Should I hang on?
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 20h @PlatoSays Yebbut there are 661 stations on the Oystercard Map - I've visited ALL of them! Tube Challenge folk are slackers - 270 stations?
Awesome- the DMail resurrects ‘farmy –farm’ and what a god awful photo of Balls..!
http://tinyurl.com/nocpzd5
Phew, that's a relief.
*crying with laughter etc* ;^ )
Not some of the bull from last years ed speech, where some said it was terrible and it turned out not to bad,the truth my friends ;-)
Poll: 60% believe Ed Miliband is not an election winner
100% KNOW David Cameron isn't an election winner.
Still, nice for you to have a non past vote weighted poll to lean on
Poll: 61.23% believe Ed Miliband is not an election winner
Now past vote weighted.
Satisfied now, tim?
Balls' denial was greeted, I understand, without incredulity and derision by the press corps, and many other professional politicos.
On any natural reading of Rawnesley's excellent tome, The End Of The Party, you have to think that McBride's activities were condoned if not actually encouraged by Balls, Brown and most of the senior politicians in the Brown camp during the BB wars. That would encompass Miliband Ed (but not his elder brother, who may have been supine but not complicit) and Douglas Alexander, though the extent to which these two actually approved of what he was up to is distinctly debatable.
My own guess would be that like many others in the PLP they would have been paralysed by fear of what Brown's mafia could do and this ensured their silence if not their support. Even on the most charitable interpretations it was a shocking state of affairs, the unhappy consequences of which linger. They will continue to do so, imo, until some of the more culpable individuals move on, one way or the other.
Balls was at the very heart of the Brown team. It would cheer me up immensely to see him go, but I don't see it happening, unless the good voters of Morley and Outwood can do us all a favour in 2015.
Shakespeare version
We few, we happy few, we Miliband of brotherscomrades
Sean Thomas version.
Plus bad action hero joke.
Then it’s bloody good enough for Ed.
Saying "Britain can do better than this" when all the viewer can see is him might not work as he intended.
@JananGanesh: Saying "Britain can do better than this" when all the viewer can see is him might not work as he intended. #Milibandspeech
He said "Yes, but only if you vote for my motion".
No one stands to gain more from it.
Stephen Tall @stephentall
Here is Ed Miliband pictured facing Rupert Murdoch down
CHEERS.
YAWNS.
It surely must get better...it can't get any worse, can it?
Given all your hard work for Labour night and day on here, I would have thought the very least they could do is send you a ticket to see the leaders speech!!!!
Ungrateful *!£"$%*&^
...let's hope it was where the Edgware Road meets Bayswater Road.
What a berk.
Here comes (Mrs Burnham's) yachts.
I hope Cameron fecks the anecdotes off next week and tells everybody times are tough because we are still spending about £100billion each year than we are taking in.
And that's he long and the short of it.
Cameron will probably do heart-rending anecdotes too though, because politicians are so detached from the real world these days they think it's cool.
What happened?
Ooor, er, missus
Ed Miliband has just pledged to always wear shirts on beach holidays.
What a twunk...
And it's a million miles from that.
#lab13 watching Miliband is like watching a really really poor stand-up comedian...
Unluckly little Ed. Better luck next time..
He's been a lot less keen on that since he entered number 10, though.