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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Palmer ponders: What should a Brexiteer do next?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Palmer ponders: What should a Brexiteer do next?
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Isn't there a risk for Tory hardliners that voting down whatever deal TMay eventually comes up with could lead to a 2nd referendum, which might narrowly be won by Remain?
I suspect, were we to have another vote, it would again be won narrowly (by which side I'm unsure) and that would deepen and prolong the bitter division rather than mend it.
He called a referendum on our membership and the people said no. Well done.
For some, though, the Brexit debate has moved well beyond reason, so the Palmer scenario is not entirely implausible.
(*E.g. for German Jews in the 30s of course)
After we have left both sides will continue to evolve as will the relationship. I think there is likely to be a big push to integrate the EU and EZ institutions without Mr Awkward always being difficult in the corner. I also think that we will find that not being in the EU is remarkably like being in it but the proportion of our trade and investment there will diminish over time. We will find new things to cooperate on but we will also find that our different world views makes continued cooperation in some areas more problematic and quite possibly not worth it.
I could be wrong. It may be that we will evolve a relationship that is membership in all but name being consulted on EU legislation even informally, for example. But my guess is that we will gradually drift apart whilst hopefully remaining friends and good trading partners. But anyone wanting to die in a ditch about the current deal really hasn't thought about the last 40 years, let alone the next 40.
They’re noisily impotent.
I know it's a crazy idea, but perhaps those committed Brexiteers could come up with a definitive, commonly-agreed-upon vision of the Brexit they want, with clear positions on immigration, customs unions, trade, borders, NI etc? They hardly seemed to have moved on from..gulp..£350m on the side of a bus and fancy jam.
The Remainers have been whining about 'soft Brexit' like it means something, but none of them can define in any way what it is, other than the subset who openly support EEA membership. Of course, most Remainers can't support EEA because the requirement for FOM means that it is obviously contrary to the referendum result and they don't like being called on that.
So they pretend that there is another 'soft Brexit' option. But the EU is constantly saying that this is not true.
The EU are obsessed with cherry picking. They define that as not having all the 'benefits' of membership without the 'obligations'.
The EU are the ones saying that they DON'T WANT the whole UK to stay in the CU as a backstop. Why? Because unlike the Remainers they are honest enough to say that CU membership requires full alignment with SM regulations. It is SM membership by proxy. And they won't accept it because it is cherry picking - SM membership without the four freedoms.
Can ANY Remainer on here come up with any evidence that the EU would accept a 'soft Brexit' plan that does not involve accepting FOM? I doubt it. They just duck the issue (or, like HYUFD, just aim for a deal which pretends to halt FOM but in fact leaves it in place).
Brexit was always a binary choice. It is not the Leavers that are saying so - ask your beloved EU.
David L's gradualist solution is next best.
And it is more likely that the initial adverse consequences will lead to public opinion starting to flow the other way.
https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1000303999369863168
https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1000304647578537984
https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1000305492479172609
https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1000306023394136064
The lesson the Zoomers have drawn from Brexit is that clarity is a killer. Obfuscate, prevaricate, waffle until you get over the line.
Then the answer to any hard question can be "You lost! Get Over It!"
The EU in 10-15 years time will be a materially different institution from the one we are leaving. There is a very small chance it will break up. There is a much greater probability that it will be far more integrated and a lot further down the path to Nick's one country concept.
It will be obvious that the UK will never fit into that. So politicians will look for the best relationship we can have to fit those circumstances. Its their job.
If it had been 52% Remain, would you and Grieve and the Lords be arguing that was a mandate for withdrawing from certain aspects of the EU because 48% wanted to Leave?
Of course not.
And your basic point is still wrong. Even the most demented of Leavers is going to accept that whatever final settlement is reached with the EU, after what might be a dozen or more years negotiating it, is going to have to be left alone for quite a long while.
Remainers will have more of a case for earlier future changes if Leavey aspects of that settlement are seen to be working against Britain’s interests. Leavers, having taken control, are going to have to take ownership of that settlement. If they don’t, Britain will rejoin in the absence of any credible alternative.
'Posts: 21,367
June 25
JackW said:
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris. 5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane. 6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around. SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.'
Nice to see you Jack I agree on all 3 points.'
Any time you're ready, sport.
https://twitter.com/lokiscottishrap/status/1000324712856158208
It's certainly true both campaigns in the EU referendum were atrocious. But the question of currency wasn't and isn't on the table.
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1000645014458896385?s=20
The opinions of less fanatical folk in the middle may well drift to favour closer integration again, perhaps to EEA. Indeed if there was to be a consensus deal to unite the majority of the country it does have to have something for everyone, and not everything that everyone wants. Such is the meaning of compromise, and EEA status is the legal framework for that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44269304
Unfortunately, his aim is not what it once was. Appears to have hit London, rather than Dublin.
Conversely the little group of Labour Leave MPs would need to decide if they preferred the bad deal (from a Leave viewpoint) plus retaining May to no deal. In both cases, working out what would happen if an election followed and Labour won would be relevant - the centrists would grab it if they thought it might mean staying in, the Leavers would run a mile. Another tactical reason for studied ambiguity, but that can't be maintained indefinitely.
Clearly not having economics taught in any state school in Dundee was a more constructive step.
Eventually, Barnier will offer us an ultimatum (current terms with no say). That will be the ‘deal’.
I would rather it be rejected. May can call another referendum for the country to back no deal if she wants, but I don’t think it’s necessary. She would win it.
Edited extra bit: removed 'still' from the start of the second sentence, as it was erroneous.
Let's talk first about the 12 countries that have been selected as the list of "benchmark small advanced economies". There doesn't appear to have been an objective criteria applied to arrive at this list, and the extent of its subjectivity is perhaps best illustrated by looking at the list of "small countries used for comparison" when similar analysis was published in the Independence White Paper (page 620) back in 2013..
The Scottish Government analysis in 2013 concluded that the superior GDP per Capita growth rate enjoyed by those countries that had "the bonus of being independent" was just 0.12% greater than Scotland's onshore economic growth over a 30 year period. That's quite a way short of the 0.7% we're now expected to believe we should expect, is it not?
http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2018/05/snp-growth-commissions-gdp-growth-rate.html?m=1
Are you planning to vote for ideogical Brexit zealots like JRM, the antithesis of conservatism?
In a year we’d have reached a new modus operandi.
*titter*
But also:
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1000654778358255616?s=20
As for what those who want a much harder Brexit should do, they should bring down the government. It's unlikely to lead to what they want but trying to get a hard supporting leader who sonehow gains support for a hard position is their only chance. If they think it's the best option for the country I disagree but it's their duty to ignore party politics on it.
* For example in the latest round of negotiations we have agreed automatic recognition of EEA/EU professional qualifications. From my perspective this is a massive advantage for departmental recruitment as the main obstacle to recruitment is professional qualifications, and the PLAB. Tier 2 visas is a relatively simple thing to change centrally.
If there’s any hint it’s not final, the EU will be adding extra armour plating.
1. No majority in cabinet for either proposed customs plan
2. No majority in parliament for either customs option or any other way forward
3. The EU Commission has already rejected the plans as unworkable fantast
4. The Irish government will veto
We are heading for the hardest no deal splat Brexit next March. Without a deal to transition to there will be no transition. On 30th March we find out who is right about the impact of leaving the Customs Union and Single Market - Eurotunnel, HMRC, Business and Industry etc or Gove/Johnson/Corbyn
Were I championing the fantastist view of Brexit I would be seeking to continue the current chaos that has stopped the process. Failure of the process leads to hard brexit, so make sure the process fails. Which is why having demanded parliamentary sovereignty they now denounce parliament for being sovereign, having demanding British judges have control they now denounce the judiciary for using it.
The big unknown is the Labour position. Jezbollah appears to be carrying out his own policy regardless of what colleagues or members think, arbitrarily binning the 6 tests compromise as having accepted the government has failed our tests we won't vote for the single market alternative. Won't vote for the single market, won't vote for the customs union - Corbyn is backing Fox and Gove et al on hard Brexit. Only if we crash out of the EU and bring about a crisis in capitalism will we have True Socialism.
Or we would have done until the extraordinary intervention by Momentum, denouncing the Great Leader for making it up as he goes along, pointing out that his democratic revolution doesn't change the fact that the membership are sovereign and we set the policy which he needs to follow. I expect a vote at Conference, I expect the leader and hard core loonies will denounce Momentum and try and block the vote, and I expect the vote will be to stay in the single market and customs union.
Will it be too late by then...?
Your vote for Corbyn or not will determine whether we have someone who cannot be trusted on economics or defence, who has, contrary to most of his backbenchers and almost the entire international community, taken more heed of Putin's propaganda than the facts and explanations of the British authorities over Salisbury.
May is a poor PM. I'd like to be able to vote for someone positively. But if the alternatives are someone who is a bit shit and someone who is a dangerously stupid man whose views are contrary to the interests of this nation then that's a very easy choice for me.
It becomes more difficult if Corbyn ceases to be leader. Then, assuming they don't get some IRA-loving, Hamas-befriending buffoon to replace him, I'd have to think about whether to vote Labour or not. Which is an odd thing to type. But May is rubbish.
We still have no idea what the final terms of the A50 deal will be, let alone the new FTA, and are speculating from a lot of noisy conjecture.
I think there will be an acceptable compromise as realists from all sides recognise a deal must be struck that is politically sustainable.
I think that no one will want to re-open negotiations quickly (though regime change in the UK is pretty nailed on), but @DavidL is right and in 10 years there will need to be a review as both sides will have changed.
I think it quite likely that we will be back in within my lifetime.
https://twitter.com/Longshanks1307/status/1000641258585509888
It's the unrealists, and they are the ones making the running right now
They are at least as likely to want future changes as us.
Once the major European tech companies are all based in London they are going to want some say on how they operate across Europe, for example.
Once it becomes obvious that London is even more important for capital investment, currency trading and the trading of EU companies than it is now they will want to increase their reach by integrating financial services regulation. A serious attack on the Euro membership or gilts of an EU country happening almost entirely out of their jurisdiction will make them rethink.
Once the UK starts to impose greater restrictions on the use of our fishing grounds by companies actually, if not legally based in Spain, they will be looking to reach agreements about that.
Once the UK starts to seriously compete on tax rates.
I could go on all day. This is and will continue to be a multifaceted and complex relationship. Aspic is never going to be the answer.
The lights will stay on, though. Rejoice, rejoice!
Just like UK car manufacture...
Europe is a very special continent. The most cultured and varied in the world. To be an integral part of it is a great privilege and anything that draws us closer and gives us the simplest access the better. Remain should have set its sigts on the common currency and shengen and not allowed the the Little Englanders to frame the debate around a fear of foreigners.
At present we just get the latter. No deal is possible. Serious economic disruption is possible. We need more than blind faith.
Mr. Roger, using pejorative terms about the majority of the electorate is the kind of complacent arrogance that helped secure a shock win for Leave.
I think it quite likely that we will be back in within my lifetime.
There's a distinct possibility that the original final deal would not have been completed in 10 years time.
It’s a rather 19th century view.
It's the will of the people
If Labour MPs mostly vote down the deal then May will have to resign, probably to be replaced by a more convinced Brexiteer like Boris, Gove or even Mogg who would then face Corbyn most likely shortly after in a general election with the prize a chance to be PM of a UK out of the EU with no transition period or FTA in prospect and heading to WTO terms