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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nearly two years before election day the Tory party is going t

SystemSystem Posts: 11,019
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nearly two years before election day the Tory party is going to select their London Mayoral candidate this summer

Justine Greening into 12/1 second favourite to win the 2020 London Mayoral election.Sadiq Khan still hot favourite to be re-elected. pic.twitter.com/L79o9zTsZI

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  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    First, like Leave.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Hate preacher Anjem Choudary who inspired London Bridge killer Khuram Butt is among 80 convicted terrorists due for release onto Britain's streets by the end of year

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5802745/Surge-extremists-freed-Britains-streets.html
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Good tactic, we need an opposition voice in London so having a mayoral candidate this early will give us one.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited June 2018
    Who gets to vote?

    I have backed Shaun Bailey at fancy prices but I doubt he will make it.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    edited June 2018
    From the point of view of a long-standing Labour activist in London I think Khan's reselection as Labour candidate and subsequent reelection as mayor is the closest you can get to political dead certs in these febrile times.

    I cannot see how the Tories can reverse their decline in London in the next two years and the voting system favours Khan as he will pick up most of the second preferences from Greens and Lib Dems.
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    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Greening might fancy a return to Cabinet in near future (May didn't actually want her to go) so being Mayoral candidate so far in advance might rule her out for that.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    houndtang said:

    Greening might fancy a return to Cabinet in near future (May didn't actually want her to go) so being Mayoral candidate so far in advance might rule her out for that.

    Yes agree. No reason why she shouldn't reappear in some post-May or even May-lead administration.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    Greening would create an interesting by-election
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    From the point of view of a long-standing Labour activist in London I think Khan's reselection as Labour candidate and subsequent reelection as mayor is the closest you can get to political dead certs in these febrile times.

    I cannot see how the Tories can reverse their decline in London in the next two years and the voting system favours Khan as he will pick up most of the second preferences from Greens and Lib Dems.

    The only thing holding his price up is the prospect of him returning to Westminster - something that was mildly rumoured as part of Heidi's Alexander's move the other way.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Greening would create an interesting by-election

    Well, only if she wins, in which case the by-election probably wouldn't be *that* interesting.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Pulpstar said:

    Greening would create an interesting by-election

    Well, only if she wins, in which case the by-election probably wouldn't be *that* interesting.
    Indeed, if Greening managed to win it would be as part of a blue wave. I don't see it, though one can hope!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926

    Pulpstar said:

    Greening would create an interesting by-election

    Well, only if she wins, in which case the by-election probably wouldn't be *that* interesting.
    Ah yes, the Tories would romp home in Putney if she was elected mayor
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546

    From the point of view of a long-standing Labour activist in London I think Khan's reselection as Labour candidate and subsequent reelection as mayor is the closest you can get to political dead certs in these febrile times.

    I cannot see how the Tories can reverse their decline in London in the next two years and the voting system favours Khan as he will pick up most of the second preferences from Greens and Lib Dems.

    The only thing holding his price up is the prospect of him returning to Westminster - something that was mildly rumoured as part of Heidi's Alexander's move the other way.
    So backing Khan and covering Heidi Alexander might be a good strategy? Hard to imagine the Labour candidate being neither of them.

    The Tory candidate next time will likely be up against the triple whammy of Heathrow policy, Brexit policy and austerity policy, all with the national party firmly at odds with the mood of significant sections of the London electorate. It will take either an 'unlikely Tory' figure or someone willing to condemn the national party repeatedly and make life even more awkward for Theresa and co, to break through. Not hard to see why major players would decide to sit this one out.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    From the point of view of a long-standing Labour activist in London I think Khan's reselection as Labour candidate and subsequent reelection as mayor is the closest you can get to political dead certs in these febrile times.

    I cannot see how the Tories can reverse their decline in London in the next two years and the voting system favours Khan as he will pick up most of the second preferences from Greens and Lib Dems.

    The only thing holding his price up is the prospect of him returning to Westminster - something that was mildly rumoured as part of Heidi's Alexander's move the other way.
    That would be procedurally very difficult in the Labour Party and would IMO be unlikely to endear him to the membership. He would need to get the NEC to engineer it for him and I see no reason to think that he will seek that, or that the NEC would be willing to do it if he did seek it.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    Not to be prejudiced or anything, especially after this morning's poll findings, but she is foreign (Yorkshire).
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,607
    Tories should stand aside in favour of a high-profile independent.

    That Charles Windsor chap always seems to have something to say about planning, so perhaps he might stand. Not sure he's too familiar with buses, trains and tubes, however.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,607
    When the news will be dominated by the Trump - Kim love-in.

    And the Labour leadership will be celebrating Russia Day.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Compared to Boris, Sadiq Khan has been a terrible mayor, he is just so anonymous and uninspiring. However if Labour put up a Cheese Sandwich as their candidate it would win the Mayoral Election at the moment, such is Labour's dominance of the Capital. 2/5 is a great price for Khan.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    I agree with Mr. Topping. Clearly, the nation/Morris Dancer's wallet would be best served by a Bailey triumph.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I agree it's a smart move too. The mayor role seems to have become one that requires a personality, so having a long run at it makes a lot of sense.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    I agree with Mr. Topping. Clearly, the nation/Morris Dancer's wallet would be best served by a Bailey triumph.

    Morris how much the f**k did you put on? He's down to 2nd favourite now!!
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TOPPING said:

    Not to be prejudiced or anything, especially after this morning's poll findings, but she is foreign (Yorkshire).

    That's next on my list if the leave vote is betrayed - Independence for Yorkshire ;-)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    TOPPING said:

    Not to be prejudiced or anything, especially after this morning's poll findings, but she is foreign (Yorkshire).

    That's next on my list if the leave vote is betrayed - Independence for Yorkshire ;-)
    Get in the queue (line).
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Topping, I'm renowned for my enormous stakes, thanks to my obscenely vast fortune.

    What are his odds now?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    Mr. Topping, I'm renowned for my enormous stakes, thanks to my obscenely vast fortune.

    What are his odds now?

    in to 5s...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Topping, I'm renowned for my enormous stakes, thanks to my obscenely vast fortune.

    What are his odds now?

    in to 5s...
    Edit: on BF. 50s on Laddies!!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Topping, alas that a competitive lay price isn't there.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    currystar said:

    Compared to Boris, Sadiq Khan has been a terrible mayor, he is just so anonymous and uninspiring. However if Labour put up a Cheese Sandwich as their candidate it would win the Mayoral Election at the moment, such is Labour's dominance of the Capital. 2/5 is a great price for Khan.

    I don't think he has been anonymous and uninspiring at all – he's rather charismatic and makes a good leader for London.

    Boris and to a slightly lesser degree Ken were larger than life mega-characters, but then so are all politicos compared to that pair.

    Actually I think Khan arrived at the right time – after 16 years of rampantly egotistical mayors it's nice to have someone a bit more normal.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Scott_P said:
    Just too many star war films in a short space of time and it may be crap ;-)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. P, I'd be surprised if it managed to lose money, but a combination of factors (saturation of releases, last minute director changes, the PC nonsense in the background leading to something of a boycott) will make it less profitable than it should've been.

    Disney needs to calm down. Relax a bit, and take some time. People won't forget what Star Wars is if they don't release a film every six months.

    And they should make a Grand Admiral Thrawn trilogy. They won't. But they should.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    Surely Zak will stand again. As we saw with Richmond, he's the Tories' Comeback Kid.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    It will be interesting to see how the UK Supreme Court decides:

    The US Supreme Court has ruled in favour of a baker in Colorado who refused to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple.
    The Colorado state court had found that baker Jack Phillips' decision to turn away David Mullins and Charlie Craig in 2012 was unlawful discrimination.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44361162

    Judgement reserved in 'gay cake' Supreme Court case

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43976101

    Will be interesting to see the US Supreme Court's reasoning - but I'm suspicious of any ruling that allows 'beliefs' to trump 'law'.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Surely Zak will stand again. As we saw with Richmond, he's the Tories' Comeback Kid.

    Given the calls for an inquiry into anti-Muslim sentiment in the Conservative party, he might want to keep his head down for a bit...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    About 10 million people are eligible to go to the polls on Thursday in the Ontario provincial election, (although the turnout was only 51% last time).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,963
    Scott_P said:
    I thought all movies lost money.... :p
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2018
    houndtang said:

    Greening might fancy a return to Cabinet in near future (May didn't actually want her to go) so being Mayoral candidate so far in advance might rule her out for that.

    I agree it seems crazy to select a candidate so far in advance given the wider political uncertainties. Why not wait until summer or even Autumn 2019 when the political landscape might be clearer and who knows May might have stood down and there is a new Cabinet.

    It's a gruelling battle running for Mayor and you need to be committed.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. rkrkrk, point of order: the allegation by the MCB (as Javid says, an organisation not especially trusted by either blue or red governments due to its membership) is of Islamophobia, a silly term that conflates anti-Muslim bigotry with entirely acceptable criticism or ridicule of Islam.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    edited June 2018
    Will Ozzy be tempted to stand? There'll obviously be no problem getting the Evening Standard's backing, and he'd doubtless enjoy contrasting his glowing success with Theresa's doom.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Anazina said:

    currystar said:

    Compared to Boris, Sadiq Khan has been a terrible mayor, he is just so anonymous and uninspiring. However if Labour put up a Cheese Sandwich as their candidate it would win the Mayoral Election at the moment, such is Labour's dominance of the Capital. 2/5 is a great price for Khan.

    I don't think he has been anonymous and uninspiring at all – he's rather charismatic and makes a good leader for London.

    Boris and to a slightly lesser degree Ken were larger than life mega-characters, but then so are all politicos compared to that pair.

    Actually I think Khan arrived at the right time – after 16 years of rampantly egotistical mayors it's nice to have someone a bit more normal.
    Agreed. And Khan has been quite astute - his main campaigns on air pollution and Brexit broaden his appeal to many Londoners at a very low cost to the mayoral budget. He has ended Boris's vanity projects and gives the impression of down-to-earth commitment to the city (and the City). And he doesn't make enemies - he might not be the most charismatic kid on the block but that's no bad thing when you consider the calamitous record of more charismatic leaders at national level in the past few years.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    brendan16 said:

    houndtang said:

    Greening might fancy a return to Cabinet in near future (May didn't actually want her to go) so being Mayoral candidate so far in advance might rule her out for that.

    I agree it seems crazy to select a candidate so far in advance given the wider political uncertainties. Why not wait until summer or even Autumn 2019 when the political landscape might be clearer and who knows May might have stood down and there is a new Cabinet.

    It's a gruelling battle running for Mayor and you need to be committed.
    Labour ran the same timetable. I'm with you – it's a mistake I think.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    The letter seems to imply that Labour have refused to honour the pairing system for this vote – is that your reading of it?
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Just too many star war films in a short space of time and it may be crap ;-)

    They've all been crap since Empire Strikes Back :-)
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    It will be interesting to see how the UK Supreme Court decides:

    The US Supreme Court has ruled in favour of a baker in Colorado who refused to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple.
    The Colorado state court had found that baker Jack Phillips' decision to turn away David Mullins and Charlie Craig in 2012 was unlawful discrimination.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44361162

    Judgement reserved in 'gay cake' Supreme Court case

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43976101

    Will be interesting to see the US Supreme Court's reasoning - but I'm suspicious of any ruling that allows 'beliefs' to trump 'law'.

    Is it me or are cakes disproportionately involved in matters relating to sexual equality legislation? Wasn't there a similar case very recently in Northern Ireland?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Anazina said:


    The letter seems to imply that Labour have refused to honour the pairing system for this vote – is that your reading of it?
    Pairing doesn't normally operate on three-line whips, which I expect all these votes will be. Exceptions are sometimes made for serious ill health.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    It will be interesting to see how the UK Supreme Court decides:

    The US Supreme Court has ruled in favour of a baker in Colorado who refused to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple.
    The Colorado state court had found that baker Jack Phillips' decision to turn away David Mullins and Charlie Craig in 2012 was unlawful discrimination.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44361162

    Judgement reserved in 'gay cake' Supreme Court case

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43976101

    Will be interesting to see the US Supreme Court's reasoning - but I'm suspicious of any ruling that allows 'beliefs' to trump 'law'.

    I see that two of the liberal Justices sided with the conservatives on the Supreme Court, although the majority decision was made on the ground that the Colorado State Commission had displayed bias, rather than ruling that Colorado's anti-discrimination law was unconstitutional per se.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Ms. Anazina, yes, the court found against the bakery (Asher's, maybe?). However, Peter Tatchell, amongst others, thought that the finding was erroneous on the basis that a straight person/couple asking for a cake celebrating gay marriage would also have been declined, (ie the decision was not discriminating against individuals based on sexuality but on the message).
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    Anazina said:


    The letter seems to imply that Labour have refused to honour the pairing system for this vote – is that your reading of it?
    There were reports last year that Labour were going to stop pairing:

    https://www.ft.com/content/aac0112e-790c-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71

    All's fair in love & war!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,985
    Scott_P said:
    Don't tell anyone, but I really enjoyed Solo. I thought it was a good hearted, well paced, high octane romp. If I were a 13 year old boy, it would probably be my favourite Star Wars movie.

    My only criticism is that Alden Ehrenrich is absolutely nothing like - in looks, mannerisms, accent or intonation - Harrison Ford.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546

    Anazina said:


    The letter seems to imply that Labour have refused to honour the pairing system for this vote – is that your reading of it?
    Pairing doesn't normally operate on three-line whips, which I expect all these votes will be. Exceptions are sometimes made for serious ill health.
    Yes, to be paired on a big 3 line whip would have you recorded as an abstention and therefore a rebel. The only example that springs to mind was on the tuition fees vote, where Chris Huhne (LD) and Martin Horwood (erm, LD) were at a climate summit in Mexico, and given the alternatives of them staying there, or them both flying half-way round the world, pulling out of the summit, voting opposite ways, and Horwood resigning as a minster, they decided that keeping them there was the pragmatic approach.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    Don't tell anyone, but I really enjoyed Solo.

    but you also like Radiohead

    QED
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Don't tell anyone, but I really enjoyed Solo. I thought it was a good hearted, well paced, high octane romp. If I were a 13 year old boy, it would probably be my favourite Star Wars movie.

    My only criticism is that Alden Ehrenrich is absolutely nothing like - in looks, mannerisms, accent or intonation - Harrison Ford.
    Didn't the whole film world (ie Mark Kermode) note how much he was exactly like (a younger) Harrison Ford?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Ms. Anazina, yes, the court found against the bakery (Asher's, maybe?). However, Peter Tatchell, amongst others, thought that the finding was erroneous on the basis that a straight person/couple asking for a cake celebrating gay marriage would also have been declined, (ie the decision was not discriminating against individuals based on sexuality but on the message).

    The court at first instance held as a finding of fact that the bakers had (correctly) treated the customer as gay on the strength of the request. So the line of argument you ascribe to Peter Tatchell is inapplicable: the bakers would have treated anyone making the request on the basis that they were gay.

    That doesn't give an answer to the question but it does rule out that way of answering it.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Mr. rkrkrk, point of order: the allegation by the MCB (as Javid says, an organisation not especially trusted by either blue or red governments due to its membership) is of Islamophobia, a silly term that conflates anti-Muslim bigotry with entirely acceptable criticism or ridicule of Islam.

    Yeah I think you'll find those calls are a bit more widespread than just one organization.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/06/iman-atta-the-call-for-an-inquiry-into-tory-anti-muslim-prejudice-isnt-new-we-made-it-two-years-ago-it-still-stands.html
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-tory-islamophobia-inquiry-conservative-peer-lord-mohamed-sheikh-a8380341.html
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/islamophobia-inquiry-mosques-urge-conservative-party-theresa-may-a8381551.html
    https://www.channel4.com/news/baroness-warsi-the-party-needs-to-get-out-of-denial-mode
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Anazina said:


    The letter seems to imply that Labour have refused to honour the pairing system for this vote – is that your reading of it?
    There were reports last year that Labour were going to stop pairing:

    https://www.ft.com/content/aac0112e-790c-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71

    All's fair in love & war!
    MP told me they pair for illness only.

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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Sean_F said:

    It will be interesting to see how the UK Supreme Court decides:

    The US Supreme Court has ruled in favour of a baker in Colorado who refused to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple.
    The Colorado state court had found that baker Jack Phillips' decision to turn away David Mullins and Charlie Craig in 2012 was unlawful discrimination.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44361162

    Judgement reserved in 'gay cake' Supreme Court case

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43976101

    Will be interesting to see the US Supreme Court's reasoning - but I'm suspicious of any ruling that allows 'beliefs' to trump 'law'.

    I see that two of the liberal Justices sided with the conservatives on the Supreme Court, although the majority decision was made on the ground that the Colorado State Commission had displayed bias, rather than ruling that Colorado's anti-discrimination law was unconstitutional per se.
    Philips didn't Refuse them service as they were gay - he would have been happy to sell them a birthday cake or any other cake but does not approve of gay marriage due to his religious beliefs and therefore refused to make a cake for their wedding. My suggestion would have been to accept that and find another baker for your wedding cake - rather than go to the law and court over it.

    In the end it's up to the US Supreme Court to adjudicate as the final arbiter over civil rights and the constitution - not the Colorado civil rights commission. The fact that two of the supposedly liberal judges sided with the majority suggests it was pretty clear cut.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    US Supreme Court 'gay wedding cake' - worth reading the Ginsburg dissent which provides interesting perspective the majority judgment glosses over....

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. rkrkrk, I'd want to look at those claims in some detail, though I would note that Warsi is a berk who wibbled about militant secularists [or very similar] very shortly before the Islamic State arose.

    Discriminating against people because of their religion is wrong. Critiquing or taking the piss of a religion is entirely acceptable and the right to do so must be defended. That's why Islamophobia is such a stupid term: it deliberately conflates the two.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    It will be interesting to see how the UK Supreme Court decides:

    The US Supreme Court has ruled in favour of a baker in Colorado who refused to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple.
    The Colorado state court had found that baker Jack Phillips' decision to turn away David Mullins and Charlie Craig in 2012 was unlawful discrimination.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44361162

    Judgement reserved in 'gay cake' Supreme Court case

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43976101

    Will be interesting to see the US Supreme Court's reasoning - but I'm suspicious of any ruling that allows 'beliefs' to trump 'law'.

    I see that two of the liberal Justices sided with the conservatives on the Supreme Court, although the majority decision was made on the ground that the Colorado State Commission had displayed bias, rather than ruling that Colorado's anti-discrimination law was unconstitutional per se.
    Philips didn't Refuse them service as they were gay - he would have been happy to sell them a birthday cake or any other cake but does not approve of gay marriage due to his religious beliefs and therefore refused to make a cake for their wedding. My suggestion would have been to accept that and find another baker for your wedding cake - rather than go to the law and court over it.

    In the end it's up to the US Supreme Court to adjudicate as the final arbiter over civil rights and the constitution - not the Colorado civil rights commission. The fact that two of the supposedly liberal judges sided with the majority suggests it was pretty clear cut.
    Interestingly, it was Justice Kennedy, who wrote the majority opinion which ruled bans on gay marriage to be unconstitutional, who wrote the majority opinion in this case.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    Anazina said:

    It will be interesting to see how the UK Supreme Court decides:

    The US Supreme Court has ruled in favour of a baker in Colorado who refused to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple.
    The Colorado state court had found that baker Jack Phillips' decision to turn away David Mullins and Charlie Craig in 2012 was unlawful discrimination.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44361162

    Judgement reserved in 'gay cake' Supreme Court case

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43976101

    Will be interesting to see the US Supreme Court's reasoning - but I'm suspicious of any ruling that allows 'beliefs' to trump 'law'.

    Is it me or are cakes disproportionately involved in matters relating to sexual equality legislation? Wasn't there a similar case very recently in Northern Ireland?
    That's the second link - the UK Supreme Court has heard the case and an answer is expected in the autumn. It will be interesting to see what impact the absence of first amendment rights has.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,715
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Don't tell anyone, but I really enjoyed Solo. I thought it was a good hearted, well paced, high octane romp. If I were a 13 year old boy, it would probably be my favourite Star Wars movie.

    My only criticism is that Alden Ehrenrich is absolutely nothing like - in looks, mannerisms, accent or intonation - Harrison Ford.
    Part filmed in a power station not so 'Far Far Away'.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-hampshire-44157988/upcoming-star-wars-movie-was-part-filmed-in-hampshire
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Meeks, that's an interesting counter-argument (which, personally, I don't buy) but it does then bring up a new counter-counter-argument:

    by that definition a Christian (with a capital C) bakery could never deny any message request on a cake that directly contradicted their beliefs and teachings, provided the request came from someone whose demographics were intrinsically linked to said message.

    In short, people would be compelled to always ignore their own beliefs and forced by law to give preference to others who believe differently. That seems profoundly unfair when it comes to freedom of religion.

    [Been thinking about this sort of thing a bit recently. I wouldn't want the homophobic parts of holy books to be removed, or a compulsion on the religious to recant or promise to never publicly utter said passages, but I'd equally defend the right of homosexuals (or, indeed, plain old atheists) to say they believed religions were utter nonsense].
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057
    edited June 2018
    TOPPING said:
    There's a nice euphemism for terrorists here - "people of a political persuasion".

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/border-gardaí-seek-automatic-weapons-amid-hard-brexit-fears-1.3514157

    Gardaí stationed near the Border are seeking the return of machine guns to individual stations ahead of a possible hard Brexit.

    They are also asking the Minister for Justice and Garda management for more Armed Support Units (ASUs) to help police the estimated 208 crossings along the 500km Border.

    Gardaí along the Border say criminals and subversives see the force as weak and ill-equipped and they are correct, according to Garda Brendan O’Connor who represents Donegal-based members for the Garda Representative Association (GRA).

    “Our members feel that criminals and the cross-Border drug dealers and people of a political persuasion, they don’t take us seriously. They don’t see us as having the capabilities to take them on. They see us as weak. They see us as we see ourselves – untrained, ill-equipped and not enough numbers.”
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Mr. rkrkrk, I'd want to look at those claims in some detail, though I would note that Warsi is a berk who wibbled about militant secularists [or very similar] very shortly before the Islamic State arose.

    Discriminating against people because of their religion is wrong. Critiquing or taking the piss of a religion is entirely acceptable and the right to do so must be defended. That's why Islamophobia is such a stupid term: it deliberately conflates the two.

    Just keep shooting the messenger eh?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584
    Anazina said:


    The letter seems to imply that Labour have refused to honour the pairing system for this vote – is that your reading of it?
    Well it clearly shows TSE's prediction a couple of threads back about the most important day in history, etc, etc, was plain wrong...






    ... it's the 12th, not the 14th.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    edited June 2018

    Anazina said:

    It will be interesting to see how the UK Supreme Court decides:

    The US Supreme Court has ruled in favour of a baker in Colorado who refused to bake a wedding cake for a gay couple.
    The Colorado state court had found that baker Jack Phillips' decision to turn away David Mullins and Charlie Craig in 2012 was unlawful discrimination.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44361162

    Judgement reserved in 'gay cake' Supreme Court case

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43976101

    Will be interesting to see the US Supreme Court's reasoning - but I'm suspicious of any ruling that allows 'beliefs' to trump 'law'.

    Is it me or are cakes disproportionately involved in matters relating to sexual equality legislation? Wasn't there a similar case very recently in Northern Ireland?
    That's the second link - the UK Supreme Court has heard the case and an answer is expected in the autumn. It will be interesting to see what impact the absence of first amendment rights has.
    A very significant difference. The US Supreme Court would certainly rule that a baker was exercising his rights under the First Amendment if he objected to a particular political message.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,963

    TOPPING said:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/border-gardaí-seek-automatic-weapons-amid-hard-brexit-fears-1.3514157

    Gardaí stationed near the Border are seeking the return of machine guns to individual stations ahead of a possible hard Brexit.

    They are also asking the Minister for Justice and Garda management for more Armed Support Units (ASUs) to help police the estimated 208 crossings along the 500km Border.

    Gardaí along the Border say criminals and subversives see the force as weak and ill-equipped and they are correct, according to Garda Brendan O’Connor who represents Donegal-based members for the Garda Representative Association (GRA).

    “Our members feel that criminals and the cross-Border drug dealers and people of a political persuasion, they don’t take us seriously. They don’t see us as having the capabilities to take them on. They see us as weak. They see us as we see ourselves – untrained, ill-equipped and not enough numbers.”
    Wow, and people say the U.K. government is guilty of trampling on the GFA.
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    Article fails to recognise that Sadiq was selected as Labour candidate for Mayor by declaring support for Corbyn. No guarantee he would be in any position win an election to lead the Party now
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584

    TOPPING said:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/border-gardaí-seek-automatic-weapons-amid-hard-brexit-fears-1.3514157

    Gardaí stationed near the Border are seeking the return of machine guns to individual stations ahead of a possible hard Brexit.

    They are also asking the Minister for Justice and Garda management for more Armed Support Units (ASUs) to help police the estimated 208 crossings along the 500km Border.

    Gardaí along the Border say criminals and subversives see the force as weak and ill-equipped and they are correct, according to Garda Brendan O’Connor who represents Donegal-based members for the Garda Representative Association (GRA).

    “Our members feel that criminals and the cross-Border drug dealers and people of a political persuasion, they don’t take us seriously. They don’t see us as having the capabilities to take them on. They see us as weak. They see us as we see ourselves – untrained, ill-equipped and not enough numbers.”
    "...and people of a political persuasion..."
    A slightly odd target for the machine gunners ?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/border-gardaí-seek-automatic-weapons-amid-hard-brexit-fears-1.3514157

    Gardaí stationed near the Border are seeking the return of machine guns to individual stations ahead of a possible hard Brexit.

    They are also asking the Minister for Justice and Garda management for more Armed Support Units (ASUs) to help police the estimated 208 crossings along the 500km Border.

    Gardaí along the Border say criminals and subversives see the force as weak and ill-equipped and they are correct, according to Garda Brendan O’Connor who represents Donegal-based members for the Garda Representative Association (GRA).

    “Our members feel that criminals and the cross-Border drug dealers and people of a political persuasion, they don’t take us seriously. They don’t see us as having the capabilities to take them on. They see us as weak. They see us as we see ourselves – untrained, ill-equipped and not enough numbers.”
    "...and people of a political persuasion..."
    A slightly odd target for the machine gunners ?
    Yep they're not talking about Vince Cable.
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Anazina said:

    currystar said:

    Compared to Boris, Sadiq Khan has been a terrible mayor, he is just so anonymous and uninspiring. However if Labour put up a Cheese Sandwich as their candidate it would win the Mayoral Election at the moment, such is Labour's dominance of the Capital. 2/5 is a great price for Khan.

    I don't think he has been anonymous and uninspiring at all – he's rather charismatic and makes a good leader for London.

    Boris and to a slightly lesser degree Ken were larger than life mega-characters, but then so are all politicos compared to that pair.

    Actually I think Khan arrived at the right time – after 16 years of rampantly egotistical mayors it's nice to have someone a bit more normal.
    Agreed. And Khan has been quite astute - his main campaigns on air pollution and Brexit broaden his appeal to many Londoners at a very low cost to the mayoral budget. He has ended Boris's vanity projects and gives the impression of down-to-earth commitment to the city (and the City). And he doesn't make enemies - he might not be the most charismatic kid on the block but that's no bad thing when you consider the calamitous record of more charismatic leaders at national level in the past few years.
    So how has his pledge to build 80,000 affordable homes a year worked out?
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    currystar said:

    Anazina said:

    currystar said:

    Compared to Boris, Sadiq Khan has been a terrible mayor, he is just so anonymous and uninspiring. However if Labour put up a Cheese Sandwich as their candidate it would win the Mayoral Election at the moment, such is Labour's dominance of the Capital. 2/5 is a great price for Khan.

    I don't think he has been anonymous and uninspiring at all – he's rather charismatic and makes a good leader for London.

    Boris and to a slightly lesser degree Ken were larger than life mega-characters, but then so are all politicos compared to that pair.

    Actually I think Khan arrived at the right time – after 16 years of rampantly egotistical mayors it's nice to have someone a bit more normal.
    Agreed. And Khan has been quite astute - his main campaigns on air pollution and Brexit broaden his appeal to many Londoners at a very low cost to the mayoral budget. He has ended Boris's vanity projects and gives the impression of down-to-earth commitment to the city (and the City). And he doesn't make enemies - he might not be the most charismatic kid on the block but that's no bad thing when you consider the calamitous record of more charismatic leaders at national level in the past few years.
    So how has his pledge to build 80,000 affordable homes a year worked out?
    No idea but no one is going to believe that a Tory mayor would be more committed to social housing than the boy from the Tooting council house.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited June 2018

    TOPPING said:
    There's a nice euphemism for terrorists here - "people of a political persuasion".

    I had a very surreal call with a SF councillor in a border area who asked us to stop stopping one particular local. He told me: "he's not, well you know, he doesn't...he wouldn't...he's not..."
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. rkrkrk, I'm not the sort of chap who shoots messengers. #JeSuisCharlie

    If claims of anti-Muslim bigotry are proven, measures must be taken if systems are flawed, and if individuals are at fault they should be held accountable.

    It remains a matter of record that certain segments of British society are over-sensitive to anything even remotely critical or satirical of Islam. Just look at Newsnight. When Jesus and Mo was in the news almost the entire segment the programme ran sided with religious censorship of satire rather than free speech for an atheist.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Don't tell anyone, but I really enjoyed Solo. I thought it was a good hearted, well paced, high octane romp. If I were a 13 year old boy, it would probably be my favourite Star Wars movie.

    My only criticism is that Alden Ehrenrich is absolutely nothing like - in looks, mannerisms, accent or intonation - Harrison Ford.
    Honestly it wasn't as bad as the trailers made it look even if it was not great, and even bad ones have made money, so I think the reason it is doing so badly is that most casual fans don't care about backstory character minutiae like the die hard fans.

    I was a little confused how old the guy was meant to be. The actor is only 28 but to me he looked 35, and by the logic of the story I think he was meant to be around 20.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584
    edited June 2018

    US Supreme Court 'gay wedding cake' - worth reading the Ginsburg dissent which provides interesting perspective the majority judgment glosses over....

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf

    The Kagan concurrence is brief, and also excellent.
    Gorsuch is a longwinded numpty.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,963

    currystar said:

    Anazina said:

    currystar said:

    Compared to Boris, Sadiq Khan has been a terrible mayor, he is just so anonymous and uninspiring. However if Labour put up a Cheese Sandwich as their candidate it would win the Mayoral Election at the moment, such is Labour's dominance of the Capital. 2/5 is a great price for Khan.

    I don't think he has been anonymous and uninspiring at all – he's rather charismatic and makes a good leader for London.

    Boris and to a slightly lesser degree Ken were larger than life mega-characters, but then so are all politicos compared to that pair.

    Actually I think Khan arrived at the right time – after 16 years of rampantly egotistical mayors it's nice to have someone a bit more normal.
    Agreed. And Khan has been quite astute - his main campaigns on air pollution and Brexit broaden his appeal to many Londoners at a very low cost to the mayoral budget. He has ended Boris's vanity projects and gives the impression of down-to-earth commitment to the city (and the City). And he doesn't make enemies - he might not be the most charismatic kid on the block but that's no bad thing when you consider the calamitous record of more charismatic leaders at national level in the past few years.
    So how has his pledge to build 80,000 affordable homes a year worked out?
    No idea but no one is going to believe that a Tory mayor would be more committed to social housing than the boy from the Tooting council house.
    Unfortunately for him, he’s in office.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/border-gardaí-seek-automatic-weapons-amid-hard-brexit-fears-1.3514157

    Gardaí stationed near the Border are seeking the return of machine guns to individual stations ahead of a possible hard Brexit.

    They are also asking the Minister for Justice and Garda management for more Armed Support Units (ASUs) to help police the estimated 208 crossings along the 500km Border.

    Gardaí along the Border say criminals and subversives see the force as weak and ill-equipped and they are correct, according to Garda Brendan O’Connor who represents Donegal-based members for the Garda Representative Association (GRA).

    “Our members feel that criminals and the cross-Border drug dealers and people of a political persuasion, they don’t take us seriously. They don’t see us as having the capabilities to take them on. They see us as weak. They see us as we see ourselves – untrained, ill-equipped and not enough numbers.”
    "...and people of a political persuasion..."
    A slightly odd target for the machine gunners ?
    Yep they're not talking about Vince Cable.
    When you're discussing the need for automatic weapons on the border, such euphemisms are not exactly helpful.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,991
    Off-topic:

    We're in Chester on a short break, and I have just completed my 1,000th walk logged for my website!

    Woohoo!

    It's quite an emotional moment. One thousand days of walking, over 17,500 miles in rain, shine, wind and snow, over nearly twenty years. Much of mainland Britain 'covered', although there are still lots of places I still need to visit.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Congrats, Mr. Jessop :)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    TOPPING said:
    There's a nice euphemism for terrorists here - "people of a political persuasion".

    Don't want that one catching on, it could end up being extended to all of us here! Let's hope it doesn't become a lawful definition, vague terms are easy to misinterpret. As Lord Strickland MP noted in a debate on poor definitions in 1656:

    We know how laws against Papists were turned upon the honestest men. We may all, in after ages, be called Quakers. It is a word nobody understands. ..we all know how the edge of former laws against Papists has been turned upon the best Protestants, the truest professors of religion, the honest Puritan, as they called him, a good profession, but hard to be understood, as this word Quaker will be in after ages
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    Off-topic:


    It's quite an emotional moment. One thousand days of walking, over 17,500 miles in rain, shine, wind and snow,

    You took a break when it was hailing? For shame :)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/border-gardaí-seek-automatic-weapons-amid-hard-brexit-fears-1.3514157

    Gardaí stationed near the Border are seeking the return of machine guns to individual stations ahead of a possible hard Brexit.

    They are also asking the Minister for Justice and Garda management for more Armed Support Units (ASUs) to help police the estimated 208 crossings along the 500km Border.

    Gardaí along the Border say criminals and subversives see the force as weak and ill-equipped and they are correct, according to Garda Brendan O’Connor who represents Donegal-based members for the Garda Representative Association (GRA).

    “Our members feel that criminals and the cross-Border drug dealers and people of a political persuasion, they don’t take us seriously. They don’t see us as having the capabilities to take them on. They see us as weak. They see us as we see ourselves – untrained, ill-equipped and not enough numbers.”
    "...and people of a political persuasion..."
    A slightly odd target for the machine gunners ?
    Yep they're not talking about Vince Cable.
    When you're discussing the need for automatic weapons on the border, such euphemisms are not exactly helpful.
    Quite accurate though
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    US Supreme Court 'gay wedding cake' - worth reading the Ginsburg dissent which provides interesting perspective the majority judgment glosses over....

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf

    What is that perspective, for those of us who haven't got time to read the full judgement?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,991
    kle4 said:

    Off-topic:


    It's quite an emotional moment. One thousand days of walking, over 17,500 miles in rain, shine, wind and snow,

    You took a break when it was hailing? For shame :)
    :) Yeah, and sleet. A fair few thunderstorms though. I had one on a beallach between two mountains when the mist around me was flashing different colours. Blooming frightening.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    Nigelb said:

    US Supreme Court 'gay wedding cake' - worth reading the Ginsburg dissent which provides interesting perspective the majority judgment glosses over....

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf

    The Kagan concurrence is brief, and also excellent.
    Gorsuch is a longwinded numpty.
    Had the Court been required to determine whether or not Colorado's law was constitutional, then I'm sure it would have split 5-4 or 4-5. Overturning the decision on the ground of bias made this unnecessary.

    My understanding is that Justice Roberts prefers to find narrow grounds on which to rule, so as to avoid decisions being split along political lines, where possible.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    rkrkrk said:

    Mr. rkrkrk, I'd want to look at those claims in some detail, though I would note that Warsi is a berk who wibbled about militant secularists [or very similar] very shortly before the Islamic State arose.

    Discriminating against people because of their religion is wrong. Critiquing or taking the piss of a religion is entirely acceptable and the right to do so must be defended. That's why Islamophobia is such a stupid term: it deliberately conflates the two.

    Just keep shooting the messenger eh?
    rkrkrk said:

    Mr. rkrkrk, I'd want to look at those claims in some detail, though I would note that Warsi is a berk who wibbled about militant secularists [or very similar] very shortly before the Islamic State arose.

    Discriminating against people because of their religion is wrong. Critiquing or taking the piss of a religion is entirely acceptable and the right to do so must be defended. That's why Islamophobia is such a stupid term: it deliberately conflates the two.

    Just keep shooting the messenger eh?
    Many similar arguments can be made in regards to Labour and anti-semitism, even down to certain people representing or not the community. I notice the papers different reactions to them though, many proud 'anti racists' have been very quiet on the issue.... Almost as if it was about political point scoring rather than racism....

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:
    There's a nice euphemism for terrorists here - "people of a political persuasion".

    I had a very surreal call with a SF councillor in a border area who asked us to stop stopping one particular local. He told me: "he's not, well you know, he doesn't...he wouldn't...he's not..."
    The Gardai are terribly weak versus some of the people they are meant to police. The Dublin drug gangs give them a real problem.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Nigelb said:

    US Supreme Court 'gay wedding cake' - worth reading the Ginsburg dissent which provides interesting perspective the majority judgment glosses over....

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf

    The Kagan concurrence is brief, and also excellent.
    Gorsuch is a longwinded numpty.
    LOL at that shade you just threw towards Gorsuch. I’m in agreement.

    Apparently the ruling doesn’t allow for discrimination, but is about specifics related to this case. Also thanks to Carlotta for providing a link to Ginsburg’s dissent, I’ll read that in a moment.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,209
    Good bye Grayling...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    Syed Kamall looks a good bet for Tory London Mayoral candidate
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "School bans boys from wearing shorts, telling them to wear skirts instead

    It is understood to be part of a gender-neutral uniform policy at Chiltern Edge School"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/chiltern-edge-school-uniform-policy-trousers-skirts-shorts-ban-a8382336.html
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "School bans boys from wearing shorts, telling them to wear skirts instead

    It is understood to be part of a gender-neutral uniform policy at Chiltern Edge School"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/chiltern-edge-school-uniform-policy-trousers-skirts-shorts-ban-a8382336.html

    A slight twist on the usual story - I feel like every year we hear some story about train drivers, or school boys, or whoever, not being allowed to wear shorts, and 'getting around' that by wearing skirts instead. And so if the report is right in this case the school has short cutted that by just saying, yeah, skirts are fine.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:
    There's a nice euphemism for terrorists here - "people of a political persuasion".

    I had a very surreal call with a SF councillor in a border area who asked us to stop stopping one particular local. He told me: "he's not, well you know, he doesn't...he wouldn't...he's not..."
    The Gardai are terribly weak versus some of the people they are meant to police. The Dublin drug gangs give them a real problem.
    This was several moons ago Alan we weren’t so much worried about the drugs!!
This discussion has been closed.