The deal at least in terms of through the transition period was already agreed in December ie the size of the exit bill, EU citizens rights and enough regulatory alignment by the UK to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
A FTA may not be agreed by next March but that was never likely when Canada took 7 years to agree its EU FTA
The December agreement is a political declaration - it will have no legal effect until it is written into a treaty.
The deal at least in terms of through the transition period was already agreed in December ie the size of the exit bill, EU citizens rights and enough regulatory alignment by the UK to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
A FTA may not be agreed by next March but that was never likely when Canada took 7 years to agree its EU FTA
The December agreement is a political declaration - it will have no legal effect until it is written into a treaty.
It is basically what will be written into that treaty
It's ironic that many of those who most vociferously say that Theresa May should stand up to über-Brexiteer bullies in her party are precisely those who voted to deny her the parliamentary numbers to do so.
So the people are at fault ?
Yes, of course, they gave her a near-impossible task and then they made it even more impossible. Votes have consequences, you know.
In a sense Richard, they gave her a very easy task. The referendum result imposed no condition other than to leave the EU. So any kind of Brexit, from WTO terms to BRINO, ticks the box.
The problem as we both know is that wherever on that spectrum we finish up, the voters will be dissatisfied. Now it would be perfectly fair to point out that the voters gave a stupid answer to the question put. And then of course it would be fair to say that it was a stupid question to which a stupid answer was given.
But true as this may be, it really doesn't help Theresa May, or any of us who wish a fiasco to be avoided. So what to do?
Personally apart from leaving the country there isn't much one can do. As for the Government, I suppose it could grow a pair and tell the voters the true consequences of the decision to which they were bound.
No, I don't think that's likely either, so what then?
Buggered if I know, Richard, but I wouldn't rule out the scenario you and I have contemplated here before - Brexit followed by Corbyn and a spin down the road towards Venezuela.
Toodle pip.
Until recently I assumed that since neither side wanted a cliff edge departure such an eventuality would be avoided. But there is now only about 4 months to go before a draft withdrawal treaty needs to be ready for ratification if the 29 March deadline is to be met. And we are nowhere near agreement on the text of such a treaty and no progress toward agreement is currently being made.
It is not clear that the UK government is capable of agreeing with itself let alone the EU. And if it did manage to agree with itself there is no guarantee that it could take parliament with it.
And the EU is preparing for a no deal - France and Holland are hiring the additional customs officers that would be needed for example. The UK, on the other hand, is playing the part of the rabbit in the headlights.
Time to fasten our seatbelts....
People were saying the same about 10 months ago about the Phase 1 negotiations. Then suddenly everything was ready to be signed minus some last minute posturing.
I'm fairly relaxed the same is happening now.
All we got was pure fudge. Can kicked down the road
In the fable of the boy who cried wolf there are two obvious lessons, although one tends to be cited more frequently than the other. Aesop describes a shepherd boy raising a false alarm repeatedly. When a wolf does eventually turn up, the boy is not believed by the villagers and the sheep in his care get eaten. The moral is: don’t issue false warnings, because you might not be believed when it matters.
The second, equally important lesson in the context of Brexit and the deplorable shambles at the heart of the British state is that there was a wolf. And the sheep got eaten. The final warning of potential disaster was worth listening to.
In the fable of the boy who cried wolf there are two obvious lessons, although one tends to be cited more frequently than the other. Aesop describes a shepherd boy raising a false alarm repeatedly. When a wolf does eventually turn up, the boy is not believed by the villagers and the sheep in his care get eaten. The moral is: don’t issue false warnings, because you might not be believed when it matters.
The second, equally important lesson in the context of Brexit and the deplorable shambles at the heart of the British state is that there was a wolf. And the sheep got eaten. The final warning of potential disaster was worth listening to.
Speaking as a hardline Brexiteer I confess I too am having grave doubts about this government negotiating our way out of the village book club, let alone the EU, without blowing up half of Britain.
I think its perfectly rational to be in favour of Brexit yet be dismayed at Tezza and Phil's clusterfudge way of managing the process.
I am still surprised at Corbyn and Labours position.
I think Corbyn should view the stopping of Brexit and screwing the Tories as his number one priority. Just imagine how split the Tories would be if Brexit was reversed and a Corbyn Government took power. The Tories would be in disarray whilst Labour could introduce a more progressive program than they have implemented for over 40 years.
I think Labour saying they would remain in the EU would be enough to counter any objections on economic policies as what could be worse than a hard Brexit? The UK achieves a much higher standard of living through trade, Brexit jeopardises this and many Leavers do not seem to understand this. A smaller economy means less power whether it is militarily, economic or soft power i.e. Overseas Development.
In the fable of the boy who cried wolf there are two obvious lessons, although one tends to be cited more frequently than the other. Aesop describes a shepherd boy raising a false alarm repeatedly. When a wolf does eventually turn up, the boy is not believed by the villagers and the sheep in his care get eaten. The moral is: don’t issue false warnings, because you might not be believed when it matters.
The second, equally important lesson in the context of Brexit and the deplorable shambles at the heart of the British state is that there was a wolf. And the sheep got eaten. The final warning of potential disaster was worth listening to.
In the fable of the boy who cried wolf there are two obvious lessons, although one tends to be cited more frequently than the other. Aesop describes a shepherd boy raising a false alarm repeatedly. When a wolf does eventually turn up, the boy is not believed by the villagers and the sheep in his care get eaten. The moral is: don’t issue false warnings, because you might not be believed when it matters.
The second, equally important lesson in the context of Brexit and the deplorable shambles at the heart of the British state is that there was a wolf. And the sheep got eaten. The final warning of potential disaster was worth listening to.
Speaking as a hardline Brexiteer I confess I too am having grave doubts about this government negotiating our way out of the village book club, let alone the EU, without blowing up half of Britain.
We now have very little choice but to move to the EEA/EFTA, and we stay there until we've had another election and the people can choose the long-term way ahead, as offered by whatever party. It's the only way to respect the vote (in some form) without total chaos and deep recession.
Expect another general election within the next 3-4 months.
There's an awful lot going on at Westminster, even more fevered than usual.
From the same article
The internal situation described by other ministers is as bad as anything I have ever heard, and that includes during the Iraq war and the financial crisis. In the latter case there was at least an air of realism about the practicalities of the challenge and eventually a plan, whether you approved of it or not.
I am still surprised at Corbyn and Labours position.
I think Corbyn should view the stopping of Brexit and screwing the Tories as his number one priority. Just imagine how split the Tories would be if Brexit was reversed and a Corbyn Government took power. The Tories would be in disarray whilst Labour could introduce a more progressive program than they have implemented for over 40 years.
I think Labour saying they would remain in the EU would be enough to counter any objections on economic policies as what could be worse than a hard Brexit? The UK achieves a much higher standard of living through trade, Brexit jeopardises this and many Leavers do not seem to understand this. A smaller economy means less power whether it is militarily, economic or soft power i.e. Overseas Development.
If Brexit was reversed by Labour votes almost all the Leave voters would vote Tory which would kill Labour in working class Leave seats and Corbyn knows it
In the fable of the boy who cried wolf there are two obvious lessons, although one tends to be cited more frequently than the other. Aesop describes a shepherd boy raising a false alarm repeatedly. When a wolf does eventually turn up, the boy is not believed by the villagers and the sheep in his care get eaten. The moral is: don’t issue false warnings, because you might not be believed when it matters.
The second, equally important lesson in the context of Brexit and the deplorable shambles at the heart of the British state is that there was a wolf. And the sheep got eaten. The final warning of potential disaster was worth listening to.
Speaking as a hardline Brexiteer I confess I too am having grave doubts about this government negotiating our way out of the village book club, let alone the EU, without blowing up half of Britain.
We now have very little choice but to move to the EEA/EFTA, and we stay there until we've had another election and the people can choose the long-term way ahead, as offered by whatever party. It's the only way to respect the vote (in some form) without total chaos and deep recession.
We will be in the EEA until 2021 anyway due to the transition period then we will be fully out and aiming for a Canada style FTA with the EU while ending free movement
I think its perfectly rational to be in favour of Brexit yet be dismayed at Tezza and Phil's clusterfudge way of managing the process.
As per the fable, before the vote you were warned it would be a clusterfuck.
It's a clusterfuck.
To still be in favour is not very rational...
The vociferous Leavers don't care about the economic costs of Hard Brexit.
This Government is not going to last much longer IMO. There is not an indefinite time line for this. Crunch time has been deferred and the road is running out.
Brexit is a stupid process, any deal is going to be worse than the one we have at the moment and yet these lunatics still want to go ahead when nothing they campaigned for can be delivered.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I agree, Javid could be Major to Boris' Heseltine and Mogg's Tebbit and Corbyn's Kinnock if Tory MPs again topple a female PM.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
I think its perfectly rational to be in favour of Brexit yet be dismayed at Tezza and Phil's clusterfudge way of managing the process.
As per the fable, before the vote you were warned it would be a clusterfuck.
It's a clusterfuck.
To still be in favour is not very rational...
The vociferous Leavers don't care about the economic costs of Hard Brexit.
This Government is not going to last much longer IMO. There is not an indefinite time line for this. Crunch time has been deferred and the road is running out.
Brexit is a stupid process, any deal is going to be worse than the one we have at the moment and yet these lunatics still want to go ahead when nothing they campaigned for can be delivered.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
This has so much resonance of the Blair/Brown years. Outwardly what on earth does Joe Public know, seeming all calm and harmonious while the protagonists themselves are going at it like cats in a sack.
Quite the opposite of what is good for the country.
Not really. These are fundamental policy differences inside the Cabinet, and is more reminiscent of Mrs Thatcher's cabinets. Blair and Brown just disagreed on when Blair should retire.
Yes fair enough but I was thinking of the unnerving effect it has on the country to know that there is no unified leadership.
I think its perfectly rational to be in favour of Brexit yet be dismayed at Tezza and Phil's clusterfudge way of managing the process.
As per the fable, before the vote you were warned it would be a clusterfuck.
It's a clusterfuck.
To still be in favour is not very rational...
The vociferous Leavers don't care about the economic costs of Hard Brexit.
This Government is not going to last much longer IMO. There is not an indefinite time line for this. Crunch time has been deferred and the road is running out.
Brexit is a stupid process, any deal is going to be worse than the one we have at the moment and yet these lunatics still want to go ahead when nothing they campaigned for can be delivered.
Well he's not the first person to suggest they might collapse by accident. Everyone purportedly wants to deal, but publicly at least are unbending a lot of the time
In the fable of the boy who cried wolf there are two obvious lessons, although one tends to be cited more frequently than the other. Aesop describes a shepherd boy raising a false alarm repeatedly. When a wolf does eventually turn up, the boy is not believed by the villagers and the sheep in his care get eaten. The moral is: don’t issue false warnings, because you might not be believed when it matters.
The second, equally important lesson in the context of Brexit and the deplorable shambles at the heart of the British state is that there was a wolf. And the sheep got eaten. The final warning of potential disaster was worth listening to.
Speaking as a hardline Brexiteer I confess I too am having grave doubts about this government negotiating our way out of the village book club, let alone the EU, without blowing up half of Britain.
We now have very little choice but to move to the EEA/EFTA, and we stay there until we've had another election and the people can choose the long-term way ahead, as offered by whatever party. It's the only way to respect the vote (in some form) without total chaos and deep recession.
Expect another general election within the next 3-4 months.
Christ I hope not.
For one thing, even with Sean's plan, which has some merit, each of the parties (bar the LDs) need more time to figure out what they'd offer in that circumstance.
I am still surprised at Corbyn and Labours position.
I think Corbyn should view the stopping of Brexit and screwing the Tories as his number one priority. Just imagine how split the Tories would be if Brexit was reversed and a Corbyn Government took power. The Tories would be in disarray whilst Labour could introduce a more progressive program than they have implemented for over 40 years.
I think Labour saying they would remain in the EU would be enough to counter any objections on economic policies as what could be worse than a hard Brexit? The UK achieves a much higher standard of living through trade, Brexit jeopardises this and many Leavers do not seem to understand this. A smaller economy means less power whether it is militarily, economic or soft power i.e. Overseas Development.
If Brexit was reversed by Labour votes almost all the Leave voters would vote Tory which would kill Labour in working class Leave seats and Corbyn knows it
Not necessarily. You have to be careful not to get sucked into this polarisation of Brexit into thinking it affects everyone's vote. I voted Remain in 2016 but voted Tory in 2017, I know many others who did the same. The Tories going 100% leave to Labour going 100% Remain would mean either I wouldn't vote or Vote Labour. The working class areas are not going to vote Tory in large enough numbers, they would have done last year would they not? I think WWC Labour voters tend to be very partisan and hate Tories. Besides will the Tories find ground troops in numbers to make safe Labour seats competitive, I think not.
The Freight Transport Association declared this week that the government’s inaction has put Britain on a “road to nowhere” and that businesses are on the brink of being “destroyed”. Not a single one of eight demands for clarification and reassurance on keeping trade flowing has been dealt with properly by ministers, said James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the body representing an industry that is the logistics lifeblood of the economy.
“We keep getting told that all food and agricultural exports to the Continent and Ireland will be checked at EU ports,” he says. “But there is nowhere to check them, and the system to check them does not exist.”
Last time Tim "endorsed" a friend for leader was IDS wasn't it?
IDS never lost a general election!
Neither have I, but then I wouldn't be a good leader of the Tory party either.
Better than IDS.
I actually heard PMQs today as I drove to Glasgow. God, May was poor. Really, really poor. I thought Corbyn was a little too smug about not being the one answering the questions but the PM only answered one, relating to the dates. The rest was just embarrassing.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I agree, Javid could be Major to Boris' Heseltine and Mogg's Tebbit and Corbyn's Kinnock if Tory MPs again topple a female PM.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
I think continued but temporary acceptance of FoM might be a bitter pill the Tories - and voters - have to swallow, with the promise that it will be addressed in the future.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I agree, Javid could be Major to Boris' Heseltine and Mogg's Tebbit and Corbyn's Kinnock if Tory MPs again topple a female PM.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
I think continued but temporary acceptance of FoM might be a bitter pill the Tories - and voters - have to swallow, with the promise that it will be addressed in the future.
The thing is, while the voters would find it hard to swallow, in general (even many remainers had issues with immigration, if not to the extent of the majority of leavers), I don't doubt they would - but a large-enough group of Tory MPs simply could not, even as a temporary measure.
Simple, offer a free method of proving citizenship/right of abode, and have that have the same status as passports in the check.
Checking right to work in the UK has been a legal requirement for employers for well over a decade now. I fail to see any difference between that and this.
My dear fellow, how naive of you. The employment check was introduced by a virtuous Labour government, the rent checks by an evil Tory government. Any self-respecting Guardian-reading lawyer can immediately see the difference.
In the fable of the boy who cried wolf there are two obvious lessons, although one tends to be cited more frequently than the other. Aesop describes a shepherd boy raising a false alarm repeatedly. When a wolf does eventually turn up, the boy is not believed by the villagers and the sheep in his care get eaten. The moral is: don’t issue false warnings, because you might not be believed when it matters.
The second, equally important lesson in the context of Brexit and the deplorable shambles at the heart of the British state is that there was a wolf. And the sheep got eaten. The final warning of potential disaster was worth listening to.
Speaking as a hardline Brexiteer I confess I too am having grave doubts about this government negotiating our way out of the village book club, let alone the EU, without blowing up half of Britain.
We now have very little choice but to move to the EEA/EFTA, and we stay there until we've had another election and the people can choose the long-term way ahead, as offered by whatever party. It's the only way to respect the vote (in some form) without total chaos and deep recession.
As we keep saying, hard Brexit is like Communism: fine in theory but impossible in practice.
Last time Tim "endorsed" a friend for leader was IDS wasn't it?
IDS never lost a general election!
Neither have I, but then I wouldn't be a good leader of the Tory party either.
Better than IDS.
I actually heard PMQs today as I drove to Glasgow. God, May was poor. Really, really poor. I thought Corbyn was a little too smug about not being the one answering the questions but the PM only answered one, relating to the dates. The rest was just embarrassing.
I think its perfectly rational to be in favour of Brexit yet be dismayed at Tezza and Phil's clusterfudge way of managing the process.
As per the fable, before the vote you were warned it would be a clusterfuck.
It's a clusterfuck.
To still be in favour is not very rational...
The vociferous Leavers don't care about the economic costs of Hard Brexit.
This Government is not going to last much longer IMO. There is not an indefinite time line for this. Crunch time has been deferred and the road is running out.
Brexit is a stupid process, any deal is going to be worse than the one we have at the moment and yet these lunatics still want to go ahead when nothing they campaigned for can be delivered.
It does feel like we are drifting into crisis.
The Argentinification of Britain.
It's not too late to recant.
I’m beginning to think EEA would be a very good idea, as soon as possible. The government has not prepared for anything harder than that, so it would be rather damaging if we end up with it.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I agree, Javid could be Major to Boris' Heseltine and Mogg's Tebbit and Corbyn's Kinnock if Tory MPs again topple a female PM.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
I think continued but temporary acceptance of FoM might be a bitter pill the Tories - and voters - have to swallow, with the promise that it will be addressed in the future.
Not going to happen, have forgotten what Leave's campaign was about?
Last time Tim "endorsed" a friend for leader was IDS wasn't it?
IDS never lost a general election!
Neither have I, but then I wouldn't be a good leader of the Tory party either.
Better than IDS.
I actually heard PMQs today as I drove to Glasgow. God, May was poor. Really, really poor. I thought Corbyn was a little too smug about not being the one answering the questions but the PM only answered one, relating to the dates. The rest was just embarrassing.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
Gove is all you need.
Fuck Grenfell. Quite frankly.
Have you read the article?
It is the best bit of political writing that I’ve ever read.
Last time Tim "endorsed" a friend for leader was IDS wasn't it?
IDS never lost a general election!
Neither have I, but then I wouldn't be a good leader of the Tory party either.
Better than IDS.
I actually heard PMQs today as I drove to Glasgow. God, May was poor. Really, really poor. I thought Corbyn was a little too smug about not being the one answering the questions but the PM only answered one, relating to the dates. The rest was just embarrassing.
You're being too harsh on Tezzie - she also answered the question on pigeon racing.
It's ironic that many of those who most vociferously say that Theresa May should stand up to über-Brexiteer bullies in her party are precisely those who voted to deny her the parliamentary numbers to do so.
So the people are at fault ?
The voters who are at fault are those who voted for Theresa May's declining, whingeing, caterwauling party. They - the voters - should be given another chance pronto.
Last time Tim "endorsed" a friend for leader was IDS wasn't it?
IDS never lost a general election!
Neither have I, but then I wouldn't be a good leader of the Tory party either.
Better than IDS.
I actually heard PMQs today as I drove to Glasgow. God, May was poor. Really, really poor. I thought Corbyn was a little too smug about not being the one answering the questions but the PM only answered one, relating to the dates. The rest was just embarrassing.
I'd be good at PMQs.
“No you fuck off” kind of thing?
More, oh fuck off you bellend, I refuse to the answer the question of someone so dense that light bends around them.
And
'Shut up Gollum, the public tell me they like this Punch and Judy style at PMQs'
I know I hide it well, but I'm very smug and superior at times.
I think its perfectly rational to be in favour of Brexit yet be dismayed at Tezza and Phil's clusterfudge way of managing the process.
As per the fable, before the vote you were warned it would be a clusterfuck.
It's a clusterfuck.
To still be in favour is not very rational...
The vociferous Leavers don't care about the economic costs of Hard Brexit.
This Government is not going to last much longer IMO. There is not an indefinite time line for this. Crunch time has been deferred and the road is running out.
Brexit is a stupid process, any deal is going to be worse than the one we have at the moment and yet these lunatics still want to go ahead when nothing they campaigned for can be delivered.
Last time Tim "endorsed" a friend for leader was IDS wasn't it?
IDS never lost a general election!
Neither have I, but then I wouldn't be a good leader of the Tory party either.
Better than IDS.
I actually heard PMQs today as I drove to Glasgow. God, May was poor. Really, really poor. I thought Corbyn was a little too smug about not being the one answering the questions but the PM only answered one, relating to the dates. The rest was just embarrassing.
You're being too harsh on Tezzie - she also answered the question on pigeon racing.
She was dire.
In fairness, the success of PMQs is hardly assessed on the basis of whether the PM has answered the questions - PMs always try to obfuscate, LoTo always claim obfuscation and evasion even when a question is answered. But even without seeing it I know May must have done terribly based on which people are saying she did terribly.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
Gove is all you need.
Fuck Grenfell. Quite frankly.
Have you read the article?
It is the best bit of political writing that I’ve ever read.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
Gove is all you need.
Fuck Grenfell. Quite frankly.
Have you read the article?
It is the best bit of political writing that I’ve ever read.
Is that the the Andrew O'Hagan article?
Yep. The entire issue is devoted to the one article. Not something I’ve seen before and have been reading the LRB for a decade or so.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I agree, Javid could be Major to Boris' Heseltine and Mogg's Tebbit and Corbyn's Kinnock if Tory MPs again topple a female PM.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
I think continued but temporary acceptance of FoM might be a bitter pill the Tories - and voters - have to swallow, with the promise that it will be addressed in the future.
Not happening, Tory Leave voters would flood an masse to UKIP and a fair number of Labour Leave voters too if free movement is left in place without any new restrictions.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I agree, Javid could be Major to Boris' Heseltine and Mogg's Tebbit and Corbyn's Kinnock if Tory MPs again topple a female PM.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
I think continued but temporary acceptance of FoM might be a bitter pill the Tories - and voters - have to swallow, with the promise that it will be addressed in the future.
Not going to happen, have forgotten what Leave's campaign was about?
I'm saying it might have to happen: the political, business, economic, and parliamentary forces are now combining to fight anything but the softest of Brexits: i.e. we're headed for EEA
Here's how I see it playing out. TMay submits to an EEA deal and has to admit she has failed on her red lines, we still have FoM (albeit with a bit more control), we still face ECJ rule in some areas of life (though fewer than before). She consequently resigns, and Javid, Gove, Bojo, whoever, takes over.
They battle on to 2022. The economy recovers, everyone calms down, as we stay inside the EEA with an extended transition.
New GE.
Would the Tories fight for full Hard Brexit after that? Would Labour differ?
I just don't see how they could battle on to 2022, not with numbers as they are and as riled up at least one side or the other will be.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
Gove is all you need.
Gove would be political suicide, Javid has double the approval rating of Gove with yougov
It's ironic that many of those who most vociferously say that Theresa May should stand up to über-Brexiteer bullies in her party are precisely those who voted to deny her the parliamentary numbers to do so.
So the people are at fault ?
Yes, of course, they gave her a near-impossible task and then they made it even more impossible. Votes have consequences, you know.
If given the opportunity, the people could change their collective mind - now that they know what the original "wish" actually means.
Unfortunately the option of going back to Cameron and Osborne, and remaining in the EU under the excellent terms negotiated, is no longer available. Hell, even the option of going back to Ed Miliband has vanished. We are where we are.
What are these "excellent terms negotiated", Mr Navabi? I think we should be told.
We were.
If Britain hadn't been run for so long by such cynical incompetents from the major parties, some kind of effort to paint the EU as a "we" would have been made in this country over the preceding 40 years and UKIP would have been kept in the margins. Instead we had to put up with the usual story of "British PM goes to Europe (careering between telling those foreign EU johnnies what's what and importuning to individual countries such as Lithuania) and look what happened - the chickens came home to roost.
It's ironic that many of those who most vociferously say that Theresa May should stand up to über-Brexiteer bullies in her party are precisely those who voted to deny her the parliamentary numbers to do so.
So the people are at fault ?
The voters who are at fault are those who voted for Theresa May's declining, whingeing, caterwauling party.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
Gove is all you need.
Gove would be political suicide, Javid has double the approval rating of Gove with yougov
To be frank, when you’re taking over as PM, then there are things far more important than poll ratings.
I am still surprised at Corbyn and Labours position.
I think Corbyn should view the stopping of Brexit and screwing the Tories as his number one priority. Just imagine how split the Tories would be if Brexit was reversed and a Corbyn Government took power. The Tories would be in disarray whilst Labour could introduce a more progressive program than they have implemented for over 40 years.
I think Labour saying they would remain in the EU would be enough to counter any objections on economic policies as what could be worse than a hard Brexit? The UK achieves a much higher standard of living through trade, Brexit jeopardises this and many Leavers do not seem to understand this. A smaller economy means less power whether it is militarily, economic or soft power i.e. Overseas Development.
If Brexit was reversed by Labour votes almost all the Leave voters would vote Tory which would kill Labour in working class Leave seats and Corbyn knows it
Not necessarily. You have to be careful not to get sucked into this polarisation of Brexit into thinking it affects everyone's vote. I voted Remain in 2016 but voted Tory in 2017, I know many others who did the same. The Tories going 100% leave to Labour going 100% Remain would mean either I wouldn't vote or Vote Labour. The working class areas are not going to vote Tory in large enough numbers, they would have done last year would they not? I think WWC Labour voters tend to be very partisan and hate Tories. Besides will the Tories find ground troops in numbers to make safe Labour seats competitive, I think not.
Of the 100 most marginal Labour seats now targeted by the Tories the vast majority voted strongly Leave
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
Gove is all you need.
Gove would be political suicide, Javid has double the approval rating of Gove with yougov
To be frank, when you’re taking over as PM, then there are things far more important than poll ratings.
There aren't if you have a general election in a year or two which could make Corbyn PM
Last time Tim "endorsed" a friend for leader was IDS wasn't it?
IDS never lost a general election!
Neither have I, but then I wouldn't be a good leader of the Tory party either.
Better than IDS.
I actually heard PMQs today as I drove to Glasgow. God, May was poor. Really, really poor. I thought Corbyn was a little too smug about not being the one answering the questions but the PM only answered one, relating to the dates. The rest was just embarrassing.
You're being too harsh on Tezzie - she also answered the question on pigeon racing.
She was dire.
That is true. And I think she agreed with some Tories about what wonderful work they were doing on some obscure things. But Corbyn humiliated her. Think about that for a second. Humiliated by Corbyn. Its just too embarrassing for words.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I agree, Javid could be Major to Boris' Heseltine and Mogg's Tebbit and Corbyn's Kinnock if Tory MPs again topple a female PM.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
I think continued but temporary acceptance of FoM might be a bitter pill the Tories - and voters - have to swallow, with the promise that it will be addressed in the future.
Not going to happen, have forgotten what Leave's campaign was about?
I'm saying it might have to happen: the political, business, economic, and parliamentary forces are now combining to fight anything but the softest of Brexits: i.e. we're headed for EEA
Here's how I see it playing out. TMay submits to an EEA deal and has to admit she has failed on her red lines, we still have FoM (albeit with a bit more control), we still face ECJ rule in some areas of life (though fewer than before). She consequently resigns, and Javid, Gove, Bojo, whoever, takes over.
They battle on to 2022. The economy recovers, everyone calms down, as we stay inside the EEA with an extended transition.
New GE.
Would the Tories fight for full Hard Brexit after that? Would Labour differ?
Farage has said he will don khaki and grab his rifle in those circumstances.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
Gove is all you need.
Gove would be political suicide, Javid has double the approval rating of Gove with yougov
To be frank, when you’re taking over as PM, then there are things far more important than poll ratings.
There aren't if you have a general election in a year or two which could make Corbyn PM
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I agree, Javid could be Major to Boris' Heseltine and Mogg's Tebbit and Corbyn's Kinnock if Tory MPs again topple a female PM.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
I think continued but temporary acceptance of FoM might be a bitter pill the Tories - and voters - have to swallow, with the promise that it will be addressed in the future.
Not going to happen, have forgotten what Leave's campaign was about?
I'm saying it might have to happen: the political, business, economic, and parliamentary forces are now combining to fight anything but the softest of Brexits: i.e. we're headed for EEA
Here's how I see it playing out. TMay submits to an EEA deal and has to admit she has failed on her red lines, we still have FoM (albeit with a bit more control), we still face ECJ rule in some areas of life (though fewer than before). She consequently resigns, and Javid, Gove, Bojo, whoever, takes over.
They battle on to 2022. The economy recovers, everyone calms down, as we stay inside the EEA with an extended transition.
New GE.
Would the Tories fight for full Hard Brexit after that? Would Labour differ?
Economies rarely recover quickly from recessions, especially induced by massive trade disruption. Do you really think that it is sensible inducing a recession for political objectives that are now unachievable and were probably only the words of the deluded?
If Britain hadn't been run for so long by such cynical incompetents from the major parties, some kind of effort to paint the EU as a "we" would have been made in this country over the preceding 40 years and UKIP would have been kept in the margins. Instead we had to put up with the usual story of "British PM goes to Europe (careering between telling those foreign EU johnnies what's what and importuning to individual countries such as Lithuania) and look what happened - the chickens came home to roost.
There is some truth in that, but it's not the whole truth. A lot of blame attaches to the EU itself, for ignoring legitimate concerns and interfering in things which were none of its business, and to EU politicians (most notably Angela Merkel, for her completely barmy response to the EU migrants crisis). There were also some completely unexpected events, the most important of which was the Labour Party's choice of Corbyn as leader, which effectively meant that nearly half of the potential Remain campaigning support went AWOL.
It's ironic that many of those who most vociferously say that Theresa May should stand up to über-Brexiteer bullies in her party are precisely those who voted to deny her the parliamentary numbers to do so.
So the people are at fault ?
Yes, of course, they gave her a near-impossible task and then they made it even more impossible. Votes have consequences, you know.
If given the opportunity, the people could change their collective mind - now that they know what the original "wish" actually means.
Unfortunately the option of going back to Cameron and Osborne, and remaining in the EU under the excellent terms negotiated, is no longer available. Hell, even the option of going back to Ed Miliband has vanished. We are where we are.
What are these "excellent terms negotiated", Mr Navabi? I think we should be told.
We were.
If Britain hadn't been run for so long by such cynical incompetents from the major parties, some kind of effort to paint the EU as a "we" would have been made in this country over the preceding 40 years and UKIP would have been kept in the margins. Instead we had to put up with the usual story of "British PM goes to Europe (careering between telling those foreign EU johnnies what's what and importuning to individual countries such as Lithuania) and look what happened - the chickens came home to roost.
If we'd been given just one - JUST ONE - of the several million promised referendums on previous EU Treaties, instead of being lied to, and deceived, for decades, then we'd have voted down further integration and the tragedy of Brexit would have been avoided.
The people responsible for this shambles are the europhile elite who saw public opinion as trivial and ignorant, a plaything to be indulged and then ignored, as they saw fit.
Suddenly they HAD to call a vote, and it all blew up. Wankers.
+1.
The arrogance and anti-democratic tendencies of the Europhiles created a backlash of anger and frustration as well as a realisation that if not now, then never as we sank ever deeper into a quagmire we did not want to be in but which politicians kept telling us was in our best interests.
It's ironic that many of those who most vociferously say that Theresa May should stand up to über-Brexiteer bullies in her party are precisely those who voted to deny her the parliamentary numbers to do so.
So the people are at fault ?
Yes, of course, they gave her a near-impossible task and then they made it even more impossible. Votes have consequences, you know.
If given the opportunity, the people could change their collective mind - now that they know what the original "wish" actually means.
Unfortunately the option of going back to Cameron and Osborne, and remaining in the EU under the excellent terms negotiated, is no longer available. Hell, even the option of going back to Ed Miliband has vanished. We are where we are.
What are these "excellent terms negotiated", Mr Navabi? I think we should be told.
We were.
If Britain hadn't been run for so long by such cynical incompetents from the major parties, some kind of effort to paint the EU as a "we" would have been made in this country over the preceding 40 years and UKIP would have been kept in the margins. Instead we had to put up with the usual story of "British PM goes to Europe to tell those foreign EU johnnies what's what" and look what happened - the chickens came home to roost.
The Irish have had half a dozen or so votes over 40 odd years to endorse their participation in the morphing of the EEC to the EU, Euro, Spitzenkandidaten,et al. We had none, zero, nada, till 2016. What we got was boiled frog syndrome, as our leaders from all main parties just took our acquiescence in the rising temperature of the water for granted.
The problem with the EU was “we” never explicitly consented to it. If we’d been asked more often (ie at all) it may have helped not seeing it as imposed. Their ( the Eu’s) “imperial” behaviour since the referendum has just convinced me ever more that if I am to see out my days in a responsive democracy and not a democracy in name only ( let’s call it DINO?) I was utterly right to vote out. I deeply and passion do not give a flying fuck about the economic short term effects ( and I trade internationally for a living). It’s more important than that. It’s my right to fire my leaders.
I suspect, with this, I’m actually even with Corbyn, God help me.
As some of you are aware my good lady and I have been on a Mediterranean and Greek Island cruise and enjoyed European benefits of free 4G roaming, the euro, and of course free medical care (though not needed). Throughout our journey everyone was most amicable on board as well as the people we met ashore and no one talked Brexit at any time.
However, on my return I find Grayling absolutely out of his depth, though Virgin train service to Euston from and back to Colwyn Bay outstanding both in assisting my wife and I and a prompt clean, efficient service travelling the distance both ways on time in 2 hours 58 minutes by a Voyager (non electric loco).
Brexit is an utter shambles and Theresa is now at a very perilous moment in her Premiership. She is a decent, hardworking politician who does care, but she does not seem to be able to make a decision or lead her party, no matter the consequences.
I believe she, more than anyone, knows a hard Brexit is just not in the Country’s best interest and somehow she is trying to manoeuvre the narrative into the softest Brexit possible but is caught between a rock and a hard place.
This next week will define her Premiership and should point the way forward that is possible taking into account the Parliamentary arithmetic. Personally I do not think she can continue as she is now. Today’s PMQ’s was an embarrassment and unless she really makes some decisions a challenge must be in the pipeline.
I really like Sajid Javid and he must be in with a real chance and right now as a member I would vote for him.
As for Corbyn, he is doing the easy part as he does not have to have a coherent policy as it is the Governments responsibility to lead. However, I have not changed my view that Corbyn and McDonnell are wholly unsuitable to run this Country and would be in chaos from day one
I referred to the Telegraph phoning me on the last thread and offering me a 52 week subscription at £1 per week. When the Telegraph printed the front page listing the 12 Conservative ‘saboteurs’ I lost it with them and told them to cancel my subscription. I did not accept their offer today but to be fair, it does seem value for money.
Anyway off to my relatives in the North of Scotland from tomorrow so will repost on my return and after next Tuesday’s votes.
Javid seems the obvious guy now. He would assist the Tories with BAME voters, confuse lefties into incontinence, he's a just-about-Remainer with serious sceptical credentials, he's also not an autistic flailing idiot like TMay. He's not charismatic, but he's obviously very clever, with great ambition. He would do well against Corbyn (his backstory is way more working class than Corbyn's)
Javid it is. Let him take us into the EEA.
I’m still reading this week’s LRB. But it doesn’t read well for Javid.
Gove is all you need.
Gove would be political suicide, Javid has double the approval rating of Gove with yougov
To be frank, when you’re taking over as PM, then there are things far more important than poll ratings.
There aren't if you have a general election in a year or two which could make Corbyn PM
It's ironic that many of those who most vociferously say that Theresa May should stand up to über-Brexiteer bullies in her party are precisely those who voted to deny her the parliamentary numbers to do so.
So the people are at fault ?
Yes, of course, they gave her a near-impossible task and then they made it even more impossible. Votes have consequences, you know.
If given the opportunity, the people could change their collective mind - now that they know what the original "wish" actually means.
Unfortunately the option of going back to Cameron and Osborne, and remaining in the EU under the excellent terms negotiated, is no longer available. Hell, even the option of going back to Ed Miliband has vanished. We are where we are.
What are these "excellent terms negotiated", Mr Navabi? I think we should be told.
We were.
If Britain hadn't been run for so long by such cynical incompetents from the major parties, some kind of effort to paint the EU as a "we" would have been made in this country over the preceding 40 years and UKIP would have been kept in the margins. Instead we had to put up with the usual story of "British PM goes to Europe (careering between telling those foreign EU johnnies what's what and importuning to individual countries such as Lithuania) and look what happened - the chickens came home to roost.
If we'd been given just one - JUST ONE - of the several million promised referendums on previous EU Treaties, instead of being lied to, and deceived, for decades, then we'd have voted down further integration and the tragedy of Brexit would have been avoided.
The people responsible for this shambles are the europhile elite who saw public opinion as trivial and ignorant, a plaything to be indulged and then ignored, as they saw fit.
Suddenly they HAD to call a vote, and it all blew up. Wankers.
+1.
The arrogance and anti-democratic tendencies of the Europhiles created a backlash of anger and frustration as well as a realisation that if not now, then never as we sank ever deeper into a quagmire we did not want to be in but which politicians kept telling us was in our best interests.
Or alternatively, the fools who sought to blame the EU for everything that was wrong in modern Britain led us to a dawning realisation that most of those problems were of our own making.
If we'd been given just one - JUST ONE - of the several million promised referendums on previous EU Treaties, instead of being lied to, and deceived, for decades, then we'd have voted down further integration and the tragedy of Brexit would have been avoided.
The people responsible for this shambles are the europhile elite who saw public opinion as trivial and ignorant, a plaything to be indulged and then ignored, as they saw fit.
Suddenly they HAD to call a vote, and it all blew up. Wankers.
That's because you cannot trust the voters to make the right call, plebiscites often become a way of kicking the government, that's why Thatcher didn't like them.
40% of voters think Corbyn should be PM and 53% of voters like pineapple on pizza.
If we'd been given just one - JUST ONE - of the several million promised referendums on previous EU Treaties, instead of being lied to, and deceived, for decades, then we'd have voted down further integration and the tragedy of Brexit would have been avoided.
The people responsible for this shambles are the europhile elite who saw public opinion as trivial and ignorant, a plaything to be indulged and then ignored, as they saw fit.
Suddenly they HAD to call a vote, and it all blew up. Wankers.
That's because you cannot trust the voters to make the right call, plebiscites often become a way of kicking the government, that's why Thatcher didn't like them.
40% of voters think Corbyn should be PM and 53% of voters like pineapple on pizza.
Farage would also return to lead UKIP in a flash if it is BINO with FOM, who knows what the voters might do if the choice is Javid, Corbyn and BINO or Farage
Remainers getting carried away again tonight, I see.
They forget that we have voted to Leave. Our government is committed to leave (the single market and customs union, too), and the civil service has been working on this since January 2017.
There is simply no easy way to break this to them, but we’re leaving the EU.
There is no need for economic dislocation. Growth in some areas will balance out falls in others. Economically we’re in a very strong position despite the punishment pain the EU are clearly trying to inflict upon those who dare to question that their membership and massive subsidy is worth the hassle.
Not leaving the EU, whilst pleasing a few million people not used to losing, would destroy democracy in this country for a generation. Nothing is worth that.
Remainers getting carried away again tonight, I see.
They forget that we have voted to Leave. Our government is committed to leave (the single market and customs union, too), and the civil service has been working on this since January 2017.
There is simply no easy way to break this to them, but we’re leaving the EU.
There is no need for economic dislocation. Growth in some areas will balance out falls in others. Economically we’re in a very strong position despite the punishment pain the EU are clearly trying to inflict upon those who dare to question that their membership and massive subsidy is worth the hassle.
Not leaving the EU, whilst pleasing a few million people not used to losing, would destroy democracy in its country for a generation. Nothing is worth that.
"There is no need for economic dislocation. Growth in some areas will balance out falls in others. "
I am still surprised at Corbyn and Labours position.
I think Corbyn should view the stopping of Brexit and screwing the Tories as his number one priority. Just imagine how split the Tories would be if Brexit was reversed and a Corbyn Government took power. The Tories would be in disarray whilst Labour could introduce a more progressive program than they have implemented for over 40 years.
I think Labour saying they would remain in the EU would be enough to counter any objections on economic policies as what could be worse than a hard Brexit? The UK achieves a much higher standard of living through trade, Brexit jeopardises this and many Leavers do not seem to understand this. A smaller economy means less power whether it is militarily, economic or soft power i.e. Overseas Development.
If Brexit was reversed by Labour votes almost all the Leave voters would vote Tory which would kill Labour in working class Leave seats and Corbyn knows it
Not necessarily. You have to be careful not to get sucked into this polarisation of Brexit into thinking it affects everyone's vote. I voted Remain in 2016 but voted Tory in 2017, I know many others who did the same. The Tories going 100% leave to Labour going 100% Remain would mean either I wouldn't vote or Vote Labour. The working class areas are not going to vote Tory in large enough numbers, they would have done last year would they not? I think WWC Labour voters tend to be very partisan and hate Tories. Besides will the Tories find ground troops in numbers to make safe Labour seats competitive, I think not.
Of the 100 most marginal Labour seats now targeted by the Tories the vast majority voted strongly Leave
I know people who voted Leave and are Labour voters. I cannot see them voting anything but Labour whether Labour are Remain or Leave. It is a generalisation and an urban myth that Leave voters will decamp to the Tories. In a handful of seats this may have been the case in 2017 but time moves on and the electoral landscape changes shape and colour. I could start a debate on political philosophy and why some voters are attracted into supporting certain political parties. But I will not bore the readers of this blog with my perceptions of political participation. I will finish with my view that Tories tend ironically to be the most likely to change their vote if the right inducement is made where as Labour voters in short tend to be very firm in their support of that party.
What are these "excellent terms negotiated", Mr Navabi? I think we should be told.
We were.
If Britain hadn't been run for so long by such cynical incompetents from the major parties, some kind of effort to paint the EU as a "we" would have been made in this country over the preceding 40 years and UKIP would have been kept in the margins. Instead we had to put up with the usual story of "British PM goes to Europe (careering between telling those foreign EU johnnies what's what and importuning to individual countries such as Lithuania) and look what happened - the chickens came home to roost.
If we'd been given just one - JUST ONE - of the several million promised referendums on previous EU Treaties, instead of being lied to, and deceived, for decades, then we'd have voted down further integration and the tragedy of Brexit would have been avoided.
The people responsible for this shambles are the europhile elite who saw public opinion as trivial and ignorant, a plaything to be indulged and then ignored, as they saw fit.
Suddenly they HAD to call a vote, and it all blew up. Wankers.
+1.
The arrogance and anti-democratic tendencies of the Europhiles created a backlash of anger and frustration as well as a realisation that if not now, then never as we sank ever deeper into a quagmire we did not want to be in but which politicians kept telling us was in our best interests.
Or alternatively, the fools who sought to blame the EU for everything that was wrong in modern Britain led us to a dawning realisation that most of those problems were of our own making.
I don't agree with that but I do think it is obvious that if we had had any of the earlier promised referendums the government of the day would have had to make a positive case not only for the treaty of the day but the EU as a concept. All leading UK politicians avoided doing that for decades because they thought it would be unpopular. Blair tried very briefly with his "at the heart of Europe" schtick but very rapidly gave up. When some eventually had to make the argument the credibility gap was just too great to bridge. Our political class reaped what they sewed.
There is no need for economic dislocation. Growth in some areas will balance out falls in others.
Spoken like a true Corbynite/John McDonnell.
Rubbish.
The Tory party and history have proven that free trade always wins out over protectionism.
Except what you're proposing will damage free trade as Iain Martin has pointed out and you cannot call him a remoaner.
How will a time limit on us staying in the customs union, before transiting onto MaxFac (which the EU basically wants to implement by 2020 for all trade anyway) damage free trade?
I am still surprised at Corbyn and Labours position.
I think Corbyn should view the stopping of Brexit and screwing the Tories as his number one priority. Just imagine how split the Tories would be if Brexit was reversed and a Corbyn Government took power. The Tories would be in disarray whilst Labour could introduce a more progressive program than they have implemented for over 40 years.
I think Labour saying they would remain in the EU would be enough to counter any objections on economic policies as what could be worse than a hard Brexit? The UK achieves a much higher standard of living through trade, Brexit jeopardises this and many Leavers do not seem to understand this. A smaller economy means less power whether it is militarily, economic or soft power i.e. Overseas Development.
If Brexit was reversed by Labour votes almost all the Leave voters would vote Tory which would kill Labour in working class Leave seats and Corbyn knows it
Not necessarily. You have to be careful not to get sucked into this polarisation of Brexit into thinking it affects everyone's vote. I voted Remain in 2016 but voted Tory in 2017, I know many others who did the same. The Tories going 100% leave to Labour going 100% Remain would mean either I wouldn't vote or Vote Labour. The working class areas are not going to vote Tory in large enough numbers, they would have done last year would they not? I think WWC Labour voters tend to be very partisan and hate Tories. Besides will the Tories find ground troops in numbers to make safe Labour seats competitive, I think not.
Of the 100 most marginal Labour seats now targeted by the Tories the vast majority voted strongly Leave
I know people who voted Leave and are Labour voters. I cannot see them voting anything but Labour whether Labour are Remain or Leave. It is a generalisation and an urban myth that Leave voters will decamp to the Tories. In a handful of seats this may have been the case in 2017 but time moves on and the electoral landscape changes shape and colour. I could start a debate on political philosophy and why some voters are attracted into supporting certain political parties. But I will not bore the readers of this blog with my perceptions of political participation. I will finish with my view that Tories tend ironically to be the most likely to change their vote if the right inducement is made where as Labour voters in short tend to be very firm in their support of that party.
People said the same about Mansfield or Stoke South before GE17. It only takes a handful of Labour voters to move to the Tories for the Tories to gain Leave seats like Barrow and Peterborough and Halifax
Comments
Mr. Eagles, mail for you.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004400439562067968
In the fable of the boy who cried wolf there are two obvious lessons, although one tends to be cited more frequently than the other. Aesop describes a shepherd boy raising a false alarm repeatedly. When a wolf does eventually turn up, the boy is not believed by the villagers and the sheep in his care get eaten. The moral is: don’t issue false warnings, because you might not be believed when it matters.
The second, equally important lesson in the context of Brexit and the deplorable shambles at the heart of the British state is that there was a wolf. And the sheep got eaten. The final warning of potential disaster was worth listening to.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/even-hardline-brexiteers-should-be-worried-now-khw3cwtqw
Much going on today?
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-cabinet-minister-to-leave/226872496/
David Davis better not bugger up her birthday this year.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1004367785475084289
https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/1004407419542306817
I think Corbyn should view the stopping of Brexit and screwing the Tories as his number one priority. Just imagine how split the Tories would be if Brexit was reversed and a Corbyn Government took power. The Tories would be in disarray whilst Labour could introduce a more progressive program than they have implemented for over 40 years.
I think Labour saying they would remain in the EU would be enough to counter any objections on economic policies as what could be worse than a hard Brexit? The UK achieves a much higher standard of living through trade, Brexit jeopardises this and many Leavers do not seem to understand this. A smaller economy means less power whether it is militarily, economic or soft power i.e. Overseas Development.
'Never tell the same lie twice.'
Expect another general election within the next 3-4 months.
It's a clusterfuck.
To still be in favour is not very rational...
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/why-my-friend-sajid-javid-would-be-the-ideal-successor-to-theresa-may-a3856636.html
The internal situation described by other ministers is as bad as anything I have ever heard, and that includes during the Iraq war and the financial crisis. In the latter case there was at least an air of realism about the practicalities of the challenge and eventually a plan, whether you approved of it or not.
Last time Tim "endorsed" a friend for leader was IDS wasn't it?
This Government is not going to last much longer IMO. There is not an indefinite time line for this. Crunch time has been deferred and the road is running out.
Brexit is a stupid process, any deal is going to be worse than the one we have at the moment and yet these lunatics still want to go ahead when nothing they campaigned for can be delivered.
Though we will not be in the full EEA as that requires free movement which is unacceptable to most Tory voters
The Argentinification of Britain.
Gove is all you need.
Lolza.
For one thing, even with Sean's plan, which has some merit, each of the parties (bar the LDs) need more time to figure out what they'd offer in that circumstance.
The Freight Transport Association declared this week that the government’s inaction has put Britain on a “road to nowhere” and that businesses are on the brink of being “destroyed”. Not a single one of eight demands for clarification and reassurance on keeping trade flowing has been dealt with properly by ministers, said James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the body representing an industry that is the logistics lifeblood of the economy.
“We keep getting told that all food and agricultural exports to the Continent and Ireland will be checked at EU ports,” he says. “But there is nowhere to check them, and the system to check them does not exist.”
I actually heard PMQs today as I drove to Glasgow. God, May was poor. Really, really poor. I thought Corbyn was a little too smug about not being the one answering the questions but the PM only answered one, relating to the dates. The rest was just embarrassing.
(Disappears to call friend who lives close to a Laddies’ shop)
When will the financial markets wake up?
It is the best bit of political writing that I’ve ever read.
She was dire.
And
'Shut up Gollum, the public tell me they like this Punch and Judy style at PMQs'
I know I hide it well, but I'm very smug and superior at times.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/13/dont-laugh-at-us-argentina/
'I wish the (right) honourable gentleman had a vagina on his head so someone could f*ck some sense into him'
After the transition period FOM must end
The arrogance and anti-democratic tendencies of the Europhiles created a backlash of anger and frustration as well as a realisation that if not now, then never as we sank ever deeper into a quagmire we did not want to be in but which politicians kept telling us was in our best interests.
Released in December 1976 , I remember it in 1977
The problem with the EU was “we” never explicitly consented to it. If we’d been asked more often (ie at all) it may have helped not seeing it as imposed. Their ( the Eu’s) “imperial” behaviour since the referendum has just convinced me ever more that if I am to see out my days in a responsive democracy and not a democracy in name only ( let’s call it DINO?) I was utterly right to vote out. I deeply and passion do not give a flying fuck about the economic short term effects ( and I trade internationally for a living). It’s more important than that. It’s my right to fire my leaders.
I suspect, with this, I’m actually even with Corbyn, God help me.
However, on my return I find Grayling absolutely out of his depth, though Virgin train service to Euston from and back to Colwyn Bay outstanding both in assisting my wife and I and a prompt clean, efficient service travelling the distance both ways on time in 2 hours 58 minutes by a Voyager (non electric loco).
Brexit is an utter shambles and Theresa is now at a very perilous moment in her Premiership. She is a decent, hardworking politician who does care, but she does not seem to be able to make a decision or lead her party, no matter the consequences.
I believe she, more than anyone, knows a hard Brexit is just not in the Country’s best interest and somehow she is trying to manoeuvre the narrative into the softest Brexit possible but is caught between a rock and a hard place.
This next week will define her Premiership and should point the way forward that is possible taking into account the Parliamentary arithmetic. Personally I do not think she can continue as she is now. Today’s PMQ’s was an embarrassment and unless she really makes some decisions a challenge must be in the pipeline.
I really like Sajid Javid and he must be in with a real chance and right now as a member I would vote for him.
As for Corbyn, he is doing the easy part as he does not have to have a coherent policy as it is the Governments responsibility to lead. However, I have not changed my view that Corbyn and McDonnell are wholly unsuitable to run this Country and would be in chaos from day one
I referred to the Telegraph phoning me on the last thread and offering me a 52 week subscription at £1 per week. When the Telegraph printed the front page listing the 12 Conservative ‘saboteurs’ I lost it with them and told them to cancel my subscription. I did not accept their offer today but to be fair, it does seem value for money.
Anyway off to my relatives in the North of Scotland from tomorrow so will repost on my return and after next Tuesday’s votes.
I wish everyone all the best
40% of voters think Corbyn should be PM and 53% of voters like pineapple on pizza.
They forget that we have voted to Leave. Our government is committed to leave (the single market and customs union, too), and the civil service has been working on this since January 2017.
There is simply no easy way to break this to them, but we’re leaving the EU.
There is no need for economic dislocation. Growth in some areas will balance out falls in others. Economically we’re in a very strong position despite the punishment pain the EU are clearly trying to inflict upon those who dare to question that their membership and massive subsidy is worth the hassle.
Not leaving the EU, whilst pleasing a few million people not used to losing, would destroy democracy in this country for a generation. Nothing is worth that.
Hope springs eternal.
The Tory party and history have proven that free trade always wins out over protectionism.