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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting article about US foreign policy in Europe:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/trump-is-choosing-eastern-europe/562130/

    “Rhetorically, the Trump administration supports Brexit. In practice, it has pursued a predatory policy in response to Brexit, designed to exploit the government’s need for new trading arrangements. Essentially, the Trump administration is using Britain’s need to join the World Trade Organization as an individual state to force it to accept painful concessions in a number of trade and services sectors, exploiting the fact that it has less leverage outside the EU. Meanwhile, in bilateral trade talks, the Trump administration is pushing Britain to accept the U.S. regulatory framework, or at least opt out of the EU single market and customs union. This will benefit U.S. economic interests in the short term, but make it much tougher for London to reach an agreement with the rest of the EU.

    The Trump administration, then, is treating Britain as an easy mark, not as a vital strategic ally.”

    Wow. I am *really* surprised.

    (Sarcasm mode off)
    Who would ever have imagined given that "Special Relationship".
    I did. As does everyone who understands the Special Relationship
    Yes how we laughed, you thinking about your bulging joint US / UK bank accounts again. Very special.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:
    It is said that if a frog is put straight into boing water it will jump straight out. But if you put it into cold water and gently heated it up, the frog does not notice and gets cooked.

    Is this what has happened to David Davies and other Brexit supporting ministers?

    (Note the frog story is a myth)
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2018
    malcolmg said:

    you have to laugh malc

    all these we want to strut the world types haven't got their heads round Europe as whole is destined to be a back water the future is in Africa and Asia and they will push their own values and tell westerners to piss off.

    in 1950 Europeans were about 20% of world population by 2050 they'll be about 5% and falling

    So we're going to be a backwater off a backwater.

    Lovely. You have such ambitions for our country ... ;)
    Sometimes the truth hurts
    So ... Scotland would be a backwater of a backwater of a backwater...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    TGOHF said:

    In fact, we'll all have to eat ferrets once the port of Dover is effectively closed.

    there will be mass violence on the streets, the train network will collapse etc ?

    Oh.
    hmmm

    given the Irish Republic transports substantial quantities of its daily needs through the UK I'm surprised they are not panicking more

    begorrah.
    Ireland is expanding its ports to take more sea going traffic so as to by-pass UK roads.
    Still (more than) doubles transit time.....just as well the Irish don't export lots of food.....

    Traveling directly from Ireland to Cherbourg, in France, takes roughly twice as long as the U.K. route. The direct ferry route to Belgium’s Zeebrugge takes nearly three times as long.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/
    Sometimes it is the certainty and relaibility of travel that matters, not the time it takes.
    Some 50 percent of Ireland’s hauliers serve the Continent, and 30 percent of them carry refrigerated goods, where every hour counts....Food distribution networks are timed like clockwork too. Irish exporters will often truck goods destined for sale in far-flung supermarkets within just a few days. Delays of just four to five hours — which could mean missed ferries, mandated rest times for truckers and spoiled goods
    Does anybody know of these products that when keep in refrigerated lorries spoil with delays of a few hours or a day?
    I buy these products in the supermarket where they have been for a few days put them in my fridge and they keep for more days.
    I suggest you ask Food & Drink Ireland.

    But, for example, a supermarket may specify that goods reach its shelves with 'X days use by' left, and 'X-1' or 'X-2' when the goods arrive could easily involve penalty or outright rejection.
    Thanks, yes that is a likely explanation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    Yes how we laughed, you thinking about your bulging joint US / UK bank accounts again. Very special.

    Morning Malc

    I see the Rolls-Royce some mysterious anonymous donor gifted the SNP Provost of Glasgow has a vanity plate.

    Not you, was it?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    But, it would be quite funny if it didn’t. Just to see the attempt at contorting explanations by the ultra-Remainers.
    There would be a certain degree of schadenfruede for a fleeting moment before the UK economy tanked as well. Lets hope Angie and Manny can sort out the Eurozone problems before it all goes bang. This time there really is no money left to bail out southern Europe.
    They will just print a new batch
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    Given the UK's recent lacklustre economic performance (not to mention the potential economic impact of Brexit), would it not be equally reasonable to say that we have already been dragging them down?
    Yes, as we were talking about here over the last few days, Germany has a severely unbalanced economy which is completely dependent on external demand. Brexit, Trump's trade war and nationalistic policies coming out of Italy and Eastern Europe are all putting very large brakes on the German economy and there is little to no domestic demand to make up for that like there would be in the UK, US and other consumer economies.
    So a vicious circle, then? By implementing Brexit we are dragging down the Eurozone and they, in turn, will drag us down. What a wonderful prospect.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Scott_P said:
    Will he have the bottle to tell her where to stick it
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    Given the UK's recent lacklustre economic performance (not to mention the potential economic impact of Brexit), would it not be equally reasonable to say that we have already been dragging them down?
    Yes, as we were talking about here over the last few days, Germany has a severely unbalanced economy which is completely dependent on external demand. Brexit, Trump's trade war and nationalistic policies coming out of Italy and Eastern Europe are all putting very large brakes on the German economy and there is little to no domestic demand to make up for that like there would be in the UK, US and other consumer economies.
    So a vicious circle, then? By implementing Brexit we are dragging down the Eurozone and they, in turn, will drag us down. What a wonderful prospect.
    Brexit is a symptom, not a cause. Europe is splintering all over the place, not just at the Channel. Until you EUphiles get that through your thick heads there will never be any hope of reforming the EU and making it fit for purpose.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    Dilemma of the day: can I loathe Nadine Dorries more than Andrew Bridgen?

    Ponders.

    Yes, I can.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    But, it would be quite funny if it didn’t. Just to see the attempt at contorting explanations by the ultra-Remainers.
    There would be a certain degree of schadenfruede for a fleeting moment before the UK economy tanked as well. Lets hope Angie and Manny can sort out the Eurozone problems before it all goes bang. This time there really is no money left to bail out southern Europe.
    They will just print a new batch
    There's not much chance a second round of QE would have the desired effect. One of the reasons the City is desperately looking for interest rates rises is that the Bank needs to reload the gun before the next recession hits. Last time we entered with high interest rates and no money printing. The US has begun to unwind monetary measures, the UK has begun to do so as well but the EU still has the printing presses on and its economy is slowing down rapidly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    JohnO said:

    Dilemma of the day: can I loathe Nadine Dorries more than Andrew Bridgen?

    Ponders.

    Yes, I can.

    I loathe them equally.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    Given the UK's recent lacklustre economic performance (not to mention the potential economic impact of Brexit), would it not be equally reasonable to say that we have already been dragging them down?
    Yes, as we were talking about here over the last few days, Germany has a severely unbalanced economy which is completely dependent on external demand. Brexit, Trump's trade war and nationalistic policies coming out of Italy and Eastern Europe are all putting very large brakes on the German economy and there is little to no domestic demand to make up for that like there would be in the UK, US and other consumer economies.
    So a vicious circle, then? By implementing Brexit we are dragging down the Eurozone and they, in turn, will drag us down. What a wonderful prospect.
    Brexit is a symptom, not a cause. Europe is splintering all over the place, not just at the Channel. Until you EUphiles get that through your thick heads there will never be any hope of reforming the EU and making it fit for purpose.
    Since the Brexit vote, what countries have seen an increase in support for leaving the EU?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    Given the UK's recent lacklustre economic performance (not to mention the potential economic impact of Brexit), would it not be equally reasonable to say that we have already been dragging them down?
    Yes, as we were talking about here over the last few days, Germany has a severely unbalanced economy which is completely dependent on external demand. Brexit, Trump's trade war and nationalistic policies coming out of Italy and Eastern Europe are all putting very large brakes on the German economy and there is little to no domestic demand to make up for that like there would be in the UK, US and other consumer economies.
    So a vicious circle, then? By implementing Brexit we are dragging down the Eurozone and they, in turn, will drag us down. What a wonderful prospect.
    Brexit is a symptom, not a cause. Europe is splintering all over the place, not just at the Channel. Until you EUphiles get that through your thick heads there will never be any hope of reforming the EU and making it fit for purpose.
    Charming.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    But, it would be quite funny if it didn’t. Just to see the attempt at contorting explanations by the ultra-Remainers.
    There would be a certain degree of schadenfruede for a fleeting moment before the UK economy tanked as well. Lets hope Angie and Manny can sort out the Eurozone problems before it all goes bang. This time there really is no money left to bail out southern Europe.
    They will just print a new batch
    There's not much chance a second round of QE would have the desired effect. One of the reasons the City is desperately looking for interest rates rises is that the Bank needs to reload the gun before the next recession hits. Last time we entered with high interest rates and no money printing. The US has begun to unwind monetary measures, the UK has begun to do so as well but the EU still has the printing presses on and its economy is slowing down rapidly.
    I am sure a couple of weeks ago on here people were talking about how great the eurozone economy was doing and how daft we were for leaving.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    But, it would be quite funny if it didn’t. Just to see the attempt at contorting explanations by the ultra-Remainers.
    There would be a certain degree of schadenfruede for a fleeting moment before the UK economy tanked as well. Lets hope Angie and Manny can sort out the Eurozone problems before it all goes bang. This time there really is no money left to bail out southern Europe.
    They will just print a new batch
    Germany will not allow the printing of money because of their previous experience of inflation and lessons learned.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JohnO said:

    Dilemma of the day: can I loathe Nadine Dorries more than Andrew Bridgen?

    Ponders.

    Yes, I can.

    The most joyous moment in the immediate aftermath of the vote was Nadine, in tears, at BoZo's aborted leadership campaign.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    JohnO said:

    Dilemma of the day: can I loathe Nadine Dorries more than Andrew Bridgen?

    Ponders.

    Yes, I can.

    The most joyous moment in the immediate aftermath of the vote was Nadine, in tears, at BoZo's aborted leadership campaign.

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    JohnO said:

    Dilemma of the day: can I loathe Nadine Dorries more than Andrew Bridgen?

    Ponders.

    Yes, I can.

    I loathe them equally.
    It really would be nice if we could all stop identifying members of our own party we loathe.

    I could play that game too with the “new bastards”, but I’m not sure it’s constructive.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Scott_P said:

    JohnO said:

    Dilemma of the day: can I loathe Nadine Dorries more than Andrew Bridgen?

    Ponders.

    Yes, I can.

    The most joyous moment in the immediate aftermath of the vote was Nadine, in tears, at BoZo's aborted leadership campaign.
    I always think of Nads as a sort of female version of Ruprecht from Dirty Rotten Scoundrels. I find it helps.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29iPMa1YdW4
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2018

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    Given the UK's recent lacklustre economic performance (not to mention the potential economic impact of Brexit), would it not be equally reasonable to say that we have already been dragging them down?
    Yes, as we were talking about here over the last few days, Germany has a severely unbalanced economy which is completely dependent on external demand. Brexit, Trump's trade war and nationalistic policies coming out of Italy and Eastern Europe are all putting very large brakes on the German economy and there is little to no domestic demand to make up for that like there would be in the UK, US and other consumer economies.
    So a vicious circle, then? By implementing Brexit we are dragging down the Eurozone and they, in turn, will drag us down. What a wonderful prospect.
    Brexit is a symptom, not a cause. Europe is splintering all over the place, not just at the Channel. Until you EUphiles get that through your thick heads there will never be any hope of reforming the EU and making it fit for purpose.
    Charming.
    S'ok. The louder the Brexit-o-loons shout, the more they insult, the more unnerved they evidently are.

    And yes, look at me calling them Brexit-o-loons; but done following cool, calm, collected analysis.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    Given the UK's recent lacklustre economic performance (not to mention the potential economic impact of Brexit), would it not be equally reasonable to say that we have already been dragging them down?
    Yes, as we were talking about here over the last few days, Germany has a severely unbalanced economy which is completely dependent on external demand. Brexit, Trump's trade war and nationalistic policies coming out of Italy and Eastern Europe are all putting very large brakes on the German economy and there is little to no domestic demand to make up for that like there would be in the UK, US and other consumer economies.
    So a vicious circle, then? By implementing Brexit we are dragging down the Eurozone and they, in turn, will drag us down. What a wonderful prospect.
    Brexit is a symptom, not a cause. Europe is splintering all over the place, not just at the Channel. Until you EUphiles get that through your thick heads there will never be any hope of reforming the EU and making it fit for purpose.
    Since the Brexit vote, what countries have seen an increase in support for leaving the EU?
    Not specifically leave, but they all want huge changes in the way the EU works, just as we did (and were subsequently denied in Dave's pitiful negotiation). I'd say Poland, Austria, Italy, Hungary, Czechia and to a certain extent Germany all want a new settlement with the EU. None will be in favour of leaving just as the UK wasn't before Dave's negotiation. Remain/In regularly had leads similar to what we currently see on the continent in the years before the referendum.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.

    So does Sadiq Kahn's

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1004676568168517632
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    JohnO said:

    Dilemma of the day: can I loathe Nadine Dorries more than Andrew Bridgen?

    Ponders.

    Yes, I can.

    I loathe them equally.
    It really would be nice if we could all stop identifying members of our own party we loathe.

    I could play that game too with the “new bastards”, but I’m not sure it’s constructive.
    It’s utterly destructive and deplorable but it cheers me up no end in these dismal times. I invite you to share my contentment. I don’t feel like that about Rees-Mogg curiously.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
    Like DD - although well-meaning, she's not up to the job and the job is difficult. I don't think any of the headbangers would accept 5-7 years of anything as that gives us a Lab govt.

    Any Cons (talking to you @HYUFD) who kid themselves that not enough people would vote for Corbyn (of course many won't) are living in pre GE-2017 la-la land.

    Someone asked earlier why, if everything was so good in 1997, the Cons lost. The answer was people were tired of the Cons by that stage. Add in sleaze and the country were ready for a change. And so shall it be in 2022.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    I might pinch that. It sounds profound but says nothing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_P said:

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.

    So does Sadiq Kahn's

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1004676568168517632
    The Mayor will talk about anything except the massive crime wave on his patch.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Very, very poor economic data coming out of Germany at the moment. There is a non-negligible chance that the Eurozone falls into a recession later this year which would probably drag the UK down with it.

    Given the UK's recent lacklustre economic performance (not to mention the potential economic impact of Brexit), would it not be equally reasonable to say that we have already been dragging them down?
    Yes, as we were talking about here over the last few days, Germany has a severely unbalanced economy which is completely dependent on external demand. Brexit, Trump's trade war and nationalistic policies coming out of Italy and Eastern Europe are all putting very large brakes on the German economy and there is little to no domestic demand to make up for that like there would be in the UK, US and other consumer economies.
    So a vicious circle, then? By implementing Brexit we are dragging down the Eurozone and they, in turn, will drag us down. What a wonderful prospect.
    Brexit is a symptom, not a cause. Europe is splintering all over the place, not just at the Channel. Until you EUphiles get that through your thick heads there will never be any hope of reforming the EU and making it fit for purpose.
    Since the Brexit vote, what countries have seen an increase in support for leaving the EU?
    Not specifically leave, but they all want huge changes in the way the EU works, just as we did (and were subsequently denied in Dave's pitiful negotiation). I'd say Poland, Austria, Italy, Hungary, Czechia and to a certain extent Germany all want a new settlement with the EU. None will be in favour of leaving just as the UK wasn't before Dave's negotiation. Remain/In regularly had leads similar to what we currently see on the continent in the years before the referendum.
    I thought most EU polls had shown a uniform rise in support for the EU since Brexit, even in the more disaffected countries. Are there ones that haven't?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
    Like DD - although well-meaning, she's not up to the job and the job is difficult. I don't think any of the headbangers would accept 5-7 years of anything as that gives us a Lab govt.

    Any Cons (talking to you @HYUFD) who kid themselves that not enough people will vote for Corbyn (of course many won't) are living in pre GE-2017 la-la land.
    I think once we're out of the EU the price of joining will be so high that not even a Labour government will contemplate it. There is little to no chance that rejoin would win a referendum either, especially since it would mean taking up the Euro which has almost no support in Westminster or in the country.

    Also, I think if we had that as a negotiating objective from 2016, no election, leave to the EEA for 5-7 years the election would come before the 5 years were up and the Tories could easily campaign on ensuring that the country doesn't backslide or whatever.

    It wouldn't solve immigration issues, I admit, however, it doesn't look like whatever May is asking for will solve that either.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Dilemma of the day: can I loathe Nadine Dorries more than Andrew Bridgen?

    Ponders.

    Yes, I can.

    I loathe them equally.
    It really would be nice if we could all stop identifying members of our own party we loathe.

    I could play that game too with the “new bastards”, but I’m not sure it’s constructive.
    It’s utterly destructive and deplorable but it cheers me up no end in these dismal times. I invite you to share my contentment. I don’t feel like that about Rees-Mogg curiously.
    Yah, JRM refused to engage in the very public destabilisation of Tory PMs and MPs that Bridgen and Dorries have done in the past.

    People like Phillip Davies and Peter Bone got on very well with David Cameron
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Having almost tripped at the first hurdle (more a line of paint really) of trying to cope with Corbyn at PMQs May does seem to have stood her ground with DD. So far at least she seems to have prevailed but there are so many difficult hurdles to overcome in the next week, specifically the votes in the Commons, that her future remains very uncertain. If she is still PM by this time next week things just might look a little different.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.

    So does Sadiq Kahn's

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1004676568168517632
    The Mayor will talk about anything except the massive crime wave on his patch.
    Not true. The mayor blamed police cuts by Theresa May and gave the Met some more money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
    Like DD - although well-meaning, she's not up to the job and the job is difficult. I don't think any of the headbangers would accept 5-7 years of anything as that gives us a Lab govt.

    Any Cons (talking to you @HYUFD) who kid themselves that not enough people will vote for Corbyn (of course many won't) are living in pre GE-2017 la-la land.
    I think once we're out of the EU the price of joining will be so high that not even a Labour government will contemplate it. There is little to no chance that rejoin would win a referendum either, especially since it would mean taking up the Euro which has almost no support in Westminster or in the country.

    Also, I think if we had that as a negotiating objective from 2016, no election, leave to the EEA for 5-7 years the election would come before the 5 years were up and the Tories could easily campaign on ensuring that the country doesn't backslide or whatever.

    It wouldn't solve immigration issues, I admit, however, it doesn't look like whatever May is asking for will solve that either.
    Rejoin won't be via a referendum.

    It'll be via a manifesto commitment.

    Parliamentary sovereignty and all that jazz.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    More a case of we don't have an ecomony which requires the level of labour we have.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Someth

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
    Like DD - although well-meaning, she's not up to the job and the job is difficult. I don't think any of the headbangers would accept 5-7 years of anything as that gives us a Lab govt.

    Any Cons (talking to you @HYUFD) who kid themselves that not enough people will vote for Corbyn (of course many won't) are living in pre GE-2017 la-la land.
    I think once we're out of the EU the price of joining will be so high that not even a Labour government will contemplate it. There is little to no chance that rejoin would win a referendum either, especially since it would mean taking up the Euro which has almost no support in Westminster or in the country.

    Also, I think if we had that as a negotiating objective from 2016, no election, leave to the EEA for 5-7 years the election would come before the 5 years were up and the Tories could easily campaign on ensuring that the country doesn't backslide or whatever.

    It wouldn't solve immigration issues, I admit, however, it doesn't look like whatever May is asking for will solve that either.
    Well of course rational people would find that the least unacceptable option. But I can hear the outcry from any number of sides, plus it has long been deemed that the UK is too large an economy for EEA status.

    As for immigration, this from the Graun this morning, for example - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/06/labour-problem-soft-brexit-immigration-eea-government
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,867
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
    Is the EEA, aka vassal state, option even on the table?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    I'm in a meeting for the next 2 hours or so.

    Lord knows what I'm going to come back to.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,867
    edited June 2018
    .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.

    So does Sadiq Kahn's

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1004676568168517632
    The Mayor will talk about anything except the massive crime wave on his patch.
    Not true. The mayor blamed police cuts by Theresa May and gave the Met some more money.
    It’s an institutional and operational problem, not a financial one.

    Billions of extra pounds will make no difference if the cops don’t want to chase the robbers.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    I've seen the big retailers all announce big job cuts which was a precursor to the last recession.

    There were many building projects being frozen when the credit crunch hit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: That is certainly not what we were being briefed by senior government sources an hour ago. https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004679317870252032
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
    Like DD - although well-meaning, she's not up to the job and the job is difficult. I don't think any of the headbangers would accept 5-7 years of anything as that gives us a Lab govt.

    Any Cons (talking to you @HYUFD) who kid themselves that not enough people will vote for Corbyn (of course many won't) are living in pre GE-2017 la-la land.
    I think once we're out of the EU the price of joining will be so high that not even a Labour government will contemplate it. There is little to no chance that rejoin would win a referendum either, especially since it would mean taking up the Euro which has almost no support in Westminster or in the country.

    Also, I think if we had that as a negotiating objective from 2016, no election, leave to the EEA for 5-7 years the election would come before the 5 years were up and the Tories could easily campaign on ensuring that the country doesn't backslide or whatever.

    It wouldn't solve immigration issues, I admit, however, it doesn't look like whatever May is asking for will solve that either.
    Rejoin won't be via a referendum.

    It'll be via a manifesto commitment.

    Parliamentary sovereignty and all that jazz.
    Which party would even offer that? The Lib Dems?!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.


    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
    Like DD - although well-meaning, she's not up to the job and the job is difficult. I don't think any of the headbangers would accept 5-7 years of anything as that gives us a Lab govt.

    Any Cons (talking to you @HYUFD) who kid themselves that not enough people will vote for Corbyn (of course many won't) are living in pre GE-2017 la-la land.
    I think once we're out of the EU the price of joining will be so high that not even a Labour government will contemplate it. There is little to no chance that rejoin would win a referendum either, especially since it would mean taking up the Euro which has almost no support in Westminster or in the country.

    Also, I think if we had that as a negotiating objective from 2016, no election, leave to the EEA for 5-7 years the election would come before the 5 years were up and the Tories could easily campaign on ensuring that the country doesn't backslide or whatever.

    It wouldn't solve immigration issues, I admit, however, it doesn't look like whatever May is asking for will solve that either.
    Rejoin won't be via a referendum.

    It'll be via a manifesto commitment.

    Parliamentary sovereignty and all that jazz.
    Which party would even offer that? The Lib Dems?!
    Id put that in the 'brave' category of policies.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.

    So does Sadiq Kahn's

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1004676568168517632
    The Mayor will talk about anything except the massive crime wave on his patch.
    Not true. The mayor blamed police cuts by Theresa May and gave the Met some more money.
    It’s an institutional and operational problem, not a financial one.

    Billions of extra pounds will make no difference if the cops don’t want to chase the robbers.
    Policing either seems to be at the US extreme where they're able to beat up/shoot whoever they feel like with impunity or ours where cops get the sack/forced sick leave or whatever for chasing down a moped which then crashes.
    Is there no sensible middle ground ?!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    MaxPB said:


    Which party would even offer that? The Lib Dems?!

    Labour or the Tories.

    It will only happen if the reality of Brexit is shown to be a disaster.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @mrjamesob: Indeed. There seems a very real prospect that @DavidDavisMP is going to resign in protest at his own incompetence. https://twitter.com/sharonodea/status/1004629736562266112
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    Retail has been struggling for a long time as spending shifts to the internet. It has not stopped employment reaching record levels. I personally have found this odd since retail has traditionally employed even the uneducated illiterates that our schools and colleges produce in such abundance. I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.

    I think that the broad range of indicators are that we are heading into a period of moderate growth. I would guess that Q2 will come in at 0.3%, maybe 0.4%. The posiiton on the continent can be overstated too. The Markit PMI for Europe issued this morning sees broad growth over most sectors: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/94ce487133f841c88ebbd50be5539cc5

    And EZ retail sales are up quite strongly, driven by Germany: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6a52530a08b4e7cbc9eec91a50fc6ee

    I don't think the EZ will meet the heady heights some were suggesting in January or February this year but they are a very long way from a recession. Which is good news for us of course.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2018
    Surely 2015 counts as Con One.

    It was sustainable if Cameron so chose. Instead he chose a referendum.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.
    .
    Mostly becoming delivery drivers I reckon...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:


    Which party would even offer that? The Lib Dems?!

    Labour or the Tories.

    It will only happen if the reality of Brexit is shown to be a disaster.
    Even then I doubt either would do it without a referendum people's vote.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Surely 2015 couynts as Con One.

    It was sustainable if Cameron so chose. Instead he chose a referendum.
    Also the arguement would be that he 'helped' mould New Labour into being more Mail-friendly.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    Will it be a soft landing or a hard landing?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.
    .
    Mostly becoming delivery drivers I reckon...
    Yes, of all the technological threats to employment going forward the idea of self driving vehicles is probably the most severe. Millions of poorly educated, poorly trained but hard working people who are going to really struggle to find something else to do. Personally, I have not been at all distressed that this seems to be taking a backward step in recent months.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:
    DD is turning himself into a laughing stock with these shenanigans. Why bother? His resignation would be forgotten in days, and since being given some actual government responsibility he's lost all the magic he once had. I doubt anyone would even bother consulting him as a 'backbench maverick' any more.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    Retail has been struggling for a long time as spending shifts to the internet. It has not stopped employment reaching record levels. I personally have found this odd since retail has traditionally employed even the uneducated illiterates that our schools and colleges produce in such abundance. I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.

    I think that the broad range of indicators are that we are heading into a period of moderate growth. I would guess that Q2 will come in at 0.3%, maybe 0.4%. The posiiton on the continent can be overstated too. The Markit PMI for Europe issued this morning sees broad growth over most sectors: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/94ce487133f841c88ebbd50be5539cc5

    And EZ retail sales are up quite strongly, driven by Germany: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6a52530a08b4e7cbc9eec91a50fc6ee

    I don't think the EZ will meet the heady heights some were suggesting in January or February this year but they are a very long way from a recession. Which is good news for us of course.

    The UK needs less spending and more saving (to go into long term/infrastructure investment).

    So the reduction in retailers is a good thing overall.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.

    So does Sadiq Kahn's

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1004676568168517632
    The Mayor will talk about anything except the massive crime wave on his patch.
    Not true. The mayor blamed police cuts by Theresa May and gave the Met some more money.
    It’s an institutional and operational problem, not a financial one.

    Billions of extra pounds will make no difference if the cops don’t want to chase the robbers.
    That game must be so much less fun these days:

    "I will pursue you as soon as I have completed my risk assessment and obtained official approval from the designated officer".

    Doesn't have the same ring as, "stop in the name of the law" does it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.
    .
    Mostly becoming delivery drivers I reckon...
    Yes, of all the technological threats to employment going forward the idea of self driving vehicles is probably the most severe. Millions of poorly educated, poorly trained but hard working people who are going to really struggle to find something else to do. Personally, I have not been at all distressed that this seems to be taking a backward step in recent months.
    It'll come in time, but not just yet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    His resignation would be forgotten in days, and since being given some actual government responsibility he's lost all the magic he once had. I doubt anyone would even bother consulting him as a 'backbench maverick' any more.

    That's probably the only reason he hasn't done it yet
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    Retail has been struggling for a long time as spending shifts to the internet. It has not stopped employment reaching record levels. I personally have found this odd since retail has traditionally employed even the uneducated illiterates that our schools and colleges produce in such abundance. I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.

    I think that the broad range of indicators are that we are heading into a period of moderate growth. I would guess that Q2 will come in at 0.3%, maybe 0.4%. The posiiton on the continent can be overstated too. The Markit PMI for Europe issued this morning sees broad growth over most sectors: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/94ce487133f841c88ebbd50be5539cc5

    And EZ retail sales are up quite strongly, driven by Germany: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6a52530a08b4e7cbc9eec91a50fc6ee

    I don't think the EZ will meet the heady heights some were suggesting in January or February this year but they are a very long way from a recession. Which is good news for us of course.
    The worrying part is the direction of travel in the EMU countries. There has been a rapid deterioration of economic conditions with no single cause.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Scott_P said:
    That's getting dangerously close to funny for once.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Purple said:

    The Daily Mail's line "Walk away from a bad deal - and make (the) EU pay" is just copying what Trump said about Mexico. Trump couldn't deliver. And the EU27's economy is six times the size of Britain's. The mouse that roared?

    Six times as large, 27 times as many agendas (and only one that counts, in the end).
    Blighty socks it to the Huns, this time without Russian and US help and with the colonies almost all gone now?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8inc0_5G0g
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2018

    Scott_P said:
    DD is turning himself into a laughing stock with these shenanigans. Why bother? His resignation would be forgotten in days, and since being given some actual government responsibility he's lost all the magic he once had. I doubt anyone would even bother consulting him as a 'backbench maverick' any more.
    David Davies could launch a leadership challenge.

    Edit- David Davis.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    Retail has been struggling for a long time as spending shifts to the internet. It has not stopped employment reaching record levels. I personally have found this odd since retail has traditionally employed even the uneducated illiterates that our schools and colleges produce in such abundance. I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.

    I think that the broad range of indicators are that we are heading into a period of moderate growth. I would guess that Q2 will come in at 0.3%, maybe 0.4%. The posiiton on the continent can be overstated too. The Markit PMI for Europe issued this morning sees broad growth over most sectors: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/94ce487133f841c88ebbd50be5539cc5

    And EZ retail sales are up quite strongly, driven by Germany: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6a52530a08b4e7cbc9eec91a50fc6ee

    I don't think the EZ will meet the heady heights some were suggesting in January or February this year but they are a very long way from a recession. Which is good news for us of course.

    The UK needs less spending and more saving (to go into long term/infrastructure investment).

    So the reduction in retailers is a good thing overall.
    As Saints Marks and Spencer would no doubt agree with St Augustine, "Oh lord, make me chaste, but not yet." We do need to wean ourselves off excessive consumption and increase saving and investment but rebalancing in this way can be very painful if it is not done slowly and gradually.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited June 2018

    Scott_P said:
    DD is turning himself into a laughing stock with these shenanigans. Why bother? His resignation would be forgotten in days, and since being given some actual government responsibility he's lost all the magic he once had. I doubt anyone would even bother consulting him as a 'backbench maverick' any more.
    David Davies could launch a leadership challenge.
    The MP for Monmouth? Very unlikely - though David Davis might!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    Retail has been struggling for a long time as spending shifts to the internet. It has not stopped employment reaching record levels. I personally have found this odd since retail has traditionally employed even the uneducated illiterates that our schools and colleges produce in such abundance. I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.

    I think that the broad range of indicators are that we are heading into a period of moderate growth. I would guess that Q2 will come in at 0.3%, maybe 0.4%. The posiiton on the continent can be overstated too. The Markit PMI for Europe issued this morning sees broad growth over most sectors: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/94ce487133f841c88ebbd50be5539cc5

    And EZ retail sales are up quite strongly, driven by Germany: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6a52530a08b4e7cbc9eec91a50fc6ee

    I don't think the EZ will meet the heady heights some were suggesting in January or February this year but they are a very long way from a recession. Which is good news for us of course.
    The worrying part is the direction of travel in the EMU countries. There has been a rapid deterioration of economic conditions with no single cause.
    I think that you are overstating it slightly but there is no doubt that the buzz from the start of the year has faded.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    The Metropolitan Police is investigating London Fire Brigade's use of a "stay put" policy during last year's fire at Grenfell Tower.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44396757
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,867
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    Retail has been struggling for a long time as spending shifts to the internet. It has not stopped employment reaching record levels. I personally have found this odd since retail has traditionally employed even the uneducated illiterates that our schools and colleges produce in such abundance. I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.

    I think that the broad range of indicators are that we are heading into a period of moderate growth. I would guess that Q2 will come in at 0.3%, maybe 0.4%. The posiiton on the continent can be overstated too. The Markit PMI for Europe issued this morning sees broad growth over most sectors: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/94ce487133f841c88ebbd50be5539cc5

    And EZ retail sales are up quite strongly, driven by Germany: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6a52530a08b4e7cbc9eec91a50fc6ee

    I don't think the EZ will meet the heady heights some were suggesting in January or February this year but they are a very long way from a recession. Which is good news for us of course.
    The worrying part is the direction of travel in the EMU countries. There has been a rapid deterioration of economic conditions with no single cause.
    What evidence do you have for a rapid deterioration of economic conditions in the EMU countries? The figures cited by DavidL would appear to indicate otherwise.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    What worries me about the fight today is how totally unedifying it is for both sides. I feel like if there was backchannel with the EU which was honing in on a compromise that would allow everyone to escape with their pride intact, the Davis and May camps wouldn't be acting like this.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.

    So does Sadiq Kahn's

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1004676568168517632
    The Mayor will talk about anything except the massive crime wave on his patch.
    Not true. The mayor blamed police cuts by Theresa May and gave the Met some more money.
    It’s an institutional and operational problem, not a financial one.

    Billions of extra pounds will make no difference if the cops don’t want to chase the robbers.
    Policing moped crimes and gangs -- there was an article on how New York and Glasgow are doing better than the Met by using modern data techniques. But also look at the graph showing the fall in police numbers under Theresa May's hegemony.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/07/weapon-police-could-deploy-against-violent-crime-not-using/

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The Metropolitan Police is investigating London Fire Brigade's use of a "stay put" policy during last year's fire at Grenfell Tower.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44396757

    And that will help how? There is already an enquiry, the police no damn all about fires, and the implied threat of prosecution will impede the development of better techniques.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    BoJo's leadership campaign continues.

    So does Sadiq Kahn's

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1004676568168517632
    The Mayor will talk about anything except the massive crime wave on his patch.
    Not true. The mayor blamed police cuts by Theresa May and gave the Met some more money.
    It’s an institutional and operational problem, not a financial one.

    Billions of extra pounds will make no difference if the cops don’t want to chase the robbers.
    Policing moped crimes and gangs -- there was an article on how New York and Glasgow are doing better than the Met by using modern data techniques. But also look at the graph showing the fall in police numbers under Theresa May's hegemony.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/07/weapon-police-could-deploy-against-violent-crime-not-using/

    Hegemony - Scottish New Year.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    The Metropolitan Police is investigating London Fire Brigade's use of a "stay put" policy during last year's fire at Grenfell Tower.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44396757

    Oh FFS. Tell them to start chasing crooks on mopeds instead. That was the official advice at the time. It may have proven to be ill advised but what the hell does it have to do with the police?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Poundworld + House of Fraser = 11,300 jobs, less Amazon adding 2,500 jobs. The growing internet doesn't balance out the retail jobs lost.
    Are we heading into a recession perhaps ?
    To balance out - plenty of cranes and building about in Coventry and Sheffield which is normally a good leading indicator of growth.

    Executive summary - I'm not sure.

    Retail has been struggling for a long time as spending shifts to the internet. It has not stopped employment reaching record levels. I personally have found this odd since retail has traditionally employed even the uneducated illiterates that our schools and colleges produce in such abundance. I have struggled to see what they are doing instead.

    I think that the broad range of indicators are that we are heading into a period of moderate growth. I would guess that Q2 will come in at 0.3%, maybe 0.4%. The posiiton on the continent can be overstated too. The Markit PMI for Europe issued this morning sees broad growth over most sectors: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/94ce487133f841c88ebbd50be5539cc5

    And EZ retail sales are up quite strongly, driven by Germany: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/c6a52530a08b4e7cbc9eec91a50fc6ee

    I don't think the EZ will meet the heady heights some were suggesting in January or February this year but they are a very long way from a recession. Which is good news for us of course.
    The worrying part is the direction of travel in the EMU countries. There has been a rapid deterioration of economic conditions with no single cause.
    I think that you are overstating it slightly but there is no doubt that the buzz from the start of the year has faded.
    German factory orders are down 2.5% in April and down by 0.1% YoY, slowing down from 2.9% growth YoY last month. That is a rapid deterioration.

    "Domestic orders decreased by 4.8% and foreign orders decreased by 0.8% in April 2018 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 9.9%, new orders from other countries increased 5.4% compared to March 2018. "

    Domestic and Euro area orders are driving the downturn as well.

    https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2018/06/PE18_198_421.html;jsessionid=F08F400EB8FB758F6A016B0A5E0D83AF.InternetLive1

    This is also a trend being seen across a lot of EMU countries, not just Germany.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    DavidL said:

    The Metropolitan Police is investigating London Fire Brigade's use of a "stay put" policy during last year's fire at Grenfell Tower.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44396757

    Oh FFS. Tell them to start chasing crooks on mopeds instead. That was the official advice at the time. It may have proven to be ill advised but what the hell does it have to do with the police?
    The advice was correct based upon what was known at the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Purple said:

    Britain leaving the SM and CU means a hard Irish border or Irish unification. (NI independence and Roirexit would also work but won't happen.) It probably also requires that Britain legislates to start regarding the RoI as a fully foreign country like France and Germany. Sooner or later a politician is going to say so - probably from the Tory right. Sinn Fein may then raise their game and start taking advantage of the Brexit mess at another level.

    Britain and the RoI's simultaneous entry to the EU in 1973 only shelved the Irish question. The Brexit vote has brought it back.

    Anyone who doesn't like this and who still wants Brexit will need to recognise it or embrace Bremain. You can't have your cake and eat it. Something's got to break.

    Since the Tories have such a tiny presence in NI they could conceivably drop the Unionism where that territory is concerned. But if they stop being Unionists they may break up, because ideology and tradition are important and not everything is realpolitik.

    The minority government is likely to fall by March 2019 at the outside not because of Anna Soubry etc. but because of its reliance on the DUP.

    Which is why we will go for CU/SM. Any other option threatens the still fragile peace in RoI/NI.
    I think the EEA option still works the best, at least for the next 5-7 years while the nation figures out what it wants. Unfortunately Theresa is a nincompoop.
    Like DD - although well-meaning, she's not up to the job and the job is difficult. I don't think any of the headbangers would accept 5-7 years of anything as that gives us a Lab govt.

    Any Cons (talking to you @HYUFD) who kid themselves that not enough people would vote for Corbyn (of course many won't) are living in pre GE-2017 la-la land.

    Someone asked earlier why, if everything was so good in 1997, the Cons lost. The answer was people were tired of the Cons by that stage. Add in sleaze and the country were ready for a change. And so shall it be in 2022.
    Wrong on both counts.

    Though of course EEA will not continue for longer thsn the transition period because of the need to end free movement the idea Corbyn will storm to a landslide at the next general election is absurd.

    By 1994 Blair had around a 20 point lead over Major, Corbyn cannot even get a 1% lead in most polls now, even Kinnock, Foot and Ed Miliband were able to get clear midterm poll leads unlike Corbyn.

    If voters think Brexit too soft they will vote UKIP not Labour, if voters think UKIP too hard they may well vote LD not Corbyn Labour either
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    The Metropolitan Police is investigating London Fire Brigade's use of a "stay put" policy during last year's fire at Grenfell Tower.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44396757

    And that will help how? There is already an enquiry, the police no damn all about fires, and the implied threat of prosecution will impede the development of better techniques.
    It will help a damned sight more than the lefties who came to conclusions about the cause before the fire was even out. And especially those who have used what happened for political purposes.

    If you want to wait for the result of the inquiry before jumping to conclusions, I might suggest you talk to 'your' side. Or is it fine to screech 'murderers' at the council?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Looks like this is out of date, a fudge of words has been cooked up by looks of things.
This discussion has been closed.